sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9513efdf81b48fc5c12272b5daab9866b674f78b | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x10f8faa2e34f8a0bd9b566385644a5471a06b936eac64d887f50ba6c7021be9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? | Event: epl-ast-bur-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-10-05? | Event: epl-ast-bur-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-05? | Event: epl-bre-mac-20... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 77,935,517 | 77,935,517 |
c8e4519162ed10e3a329d474e05778a8e0a5ed5d | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x55d7e83669be3304ce171ec54b3409dc0f13137813843fdd1de6af9919ccb397 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-10-05? | Event: epl-ast-bur-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-05? | Event: epl-bre-mac-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: epl-bre-mac... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 77,935,517 | 77,935,517 |
0c2410bb609c670ee8abecc6657dd45becf44800 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xbdf2ece538d1f74cbdee7f29a9c60da4e9418b3066a991f1a2572bb00ad60efd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-05? | Event: epl-bre-mac-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: epl-bre-mac-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 77,935,517 | 77,935,517 |
57bae4317e2530e3d0d97aa9b1fa3f00455bbe01 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xaf510a1fb96a5abf23d12151c03aa17af3c7166d783f48e05c96ef37bd7ef117 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brentford vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: epl-bre-mac-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 77,961,923 | 77,961,923 |
8d5ad75b9d583785febfa5d1cc7d5ab27fccbd67 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xf8920bfa2ea26de48e3de40bbfcb5530cde7df7cfe9c541dd2d72f19c13b8551 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from Sep... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 77,970,470 | 77,970,470 |
4add06b0755dc27edc1347f7b0e37180160c70af | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xd468704d23b31e2ac86df6cb3ae8e3b25434780cfcfcc1db5c96efd84328d04d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon M... | yes | 1 | first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? | 77,983,026 | 77,983,026 |
c36bd55c21d228af90759a64b1b89ee38a95650a | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x05218d48d9bd2ce098a38e98c3f728b09cb95ef936eda1d6731a939691cf194b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 77,985,819 | 77,985,819 |
55872887580efe0f9747f0647ce7da095a773a60 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x3a13609e28c2aa243f5ac03feffa6644510588eafe89aa3fb48601aeaebba0e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104,000 on October 7? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 77,985,819 | 77,985,819 |
38c03c69f4aad026c90af77e3855be362ab48fc8 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x726f839c363681d34a3fecc8ceaffead59da9b3bfb71a64040f4ad58fa02bb37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104,000 on October 7? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on October 7? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? | 77,985,819 | 77,985,819 |
7f8a80f55601990bfc0eaed97eff98bfc17d05b9 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x7a3fd81ababb31b0090abdb174f02c551d1a21328f9482415d7ebc2e1c6c4b6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on October 7? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? | 77,985,819 | 77,985,819 |
f1a7d19507b75cc0ae926dd6073c8cd3aa838875 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x8029e8ef0cd9df64580cf399c347775f0a224b681dfdf1c150be065f5ef12162 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | 77,985,819 | 77,985,819 |
ced4cb0f340cf5f135a4063a2df1bcbfc75befcc | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x8bfa13f7c85aca4c28115ad5ddfcb3cf2ffae767cd200083844e01cbaa0a6cdc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on October 7? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 77,985,819 | 77,985,819 |
91c99cc8af3e316573ab255af30f2fd0810ea0a0 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x9357946ef4149c76d0df7fdce7901faf9b87830042c1014b016a914ada210bbc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on October 7? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October 7? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? | 77,985,819 | 77,985,819 |
fb0417171234e25a1daa796a09db359c26d1d9f2 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x96be5d1b314b58e5b902510376819b164d94d8ec05507c9c779dd08e4f2eca0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October 7? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 77,985,819 | 77,985,819 |
5d328505ad746b56bc5d117d642a6d467dcb3eed | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xc87a34bc5563c4735c04c266229fb681a5582985edaf9e5f551e4a11f9235956 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 77,985,819 | 77,985,819 |
49772ed8c594fe2be597938b0ff1f29d514fa2a6 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xeae2edae4d49434c915134a9c279eb417b4f48a4eb3d369971c1baa8d17b8edc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-... | yes | 1 | first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Will no leader be out in 2025? | 77,985,819 | 77,985,819 |
a6eefcbdef7af55ac90986929318ffc8b73f68cd | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xf026cce8acdf7ef3c52908d58ad8780d6e7ac3440189945deffbcb042aca685d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 7? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? | 77,985,819 | 77,985,819 |
9717209f37d22908a5d25095bc5c67a9ed3e8196 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xf87992431a43d0cb030d9238d5157855fddb7e872c14c1b89c9b9df886b25962 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 7? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 77,985,819 | 77,985,819 |
b9991314a241296e512976037c25f587fbf43c3f | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x078b088a6f57814730b5d4f424227c955c2fd58f0841a410bd2e108f000c3e8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on October 7? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | 78,014,296 | 78,014,296 |
9acdd312e7dc233268dfb7998337bd22a30459b4 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xabfbfedc48e4e789ca25088faeb10dae4f8da5d01acf82f84d249c12b59b8153 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on October 7? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | 78,059,573 | 78,059,573 |
aa7786d13364a4e1d488dd259a62180a33ea32d3 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xfd1fefa276f64fe6cd314e31962e9114a08916044a0c6407d315bd9ce20c912e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $110,000 on October 9? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-9 | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | 78,059,573 | 78,059,573 |
293d48d90ee3d3f1d2710027e1bcf431fb6fcf57 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x335634757f18cda7a1add930ce86b5843edc8837b015d5a3e97616a4e85b568d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $110,000 on October 9? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-3-october-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | 78,245,311 | 78,245,311 |
b9f4bc61d957ded7410a7a62b601ffd9bf80d863 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x36838fba58ffee0e9288c61ec914768441c87febcebd7a99901e8e1b71316c75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-3-october-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-3-october-10 | Choi... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | 78,245,311 | 78,245,311 |
a08629545ded89d9e971ac9195f558e5089e2f6c | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x3c020cb98ca54a17256e11386bf8f6607245a79c45d9b2661660742bee90f038 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-3-october-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-3-october-10 | Choi... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | 78,245,311 | 78,245,311 |
2e9120be9b1b5e4d95314db8991264eaeda24df9 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x4841ed78605b279e0d3faf40c4f7b0ba19e1a2639ca29e15527c744b56817e43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-3-october-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-3-october-10 | Choi... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | 78,245,311 | 78,245,311 |
0caa8f613d4adca2230705716d3ebe0114ff59d3 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x4d6b4716663f65bd0c2dd75e553c30415d1cef0f12349090b7d1fc190651bae9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-3-october-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Georgia win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | 78,245,311 | 78,245,311 |
558e1c05b5e67668f3fafc0a94a4d269dfe3549d | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x5318b98523a55171e586f13d30c440169f3c437b4a8ddc9545a78f5988a5c0e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Georgia win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2025-10-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Ev... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | 78,245,311 | 78,245,311 |
95158e48051d7f1a06dcace310f60696e26bb868 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x5ddde0b801ac79743b4c0eaa9b76cd9594f575ba3b4bed0eba2bf17d021d699e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2025-10-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham vs... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | 78,245,311 | 78,245,311 |
52ae3072da68832a7e40dfc9fb7961bafcac2bab | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xbb71ef4ae533cb59ff03109e6769446d1a47bacb8290d1a04eeb8c1f606428c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-ast-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | 78,245,311 | 78,245,311 |
2d73a789511026a7d820d408200e7afc3eb10dfb | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x521386a42663c2a7fe738fa912c73724f80b9129391b8fb00bc925c807b1998a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-ast-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | 78,252,721 | 78,252,721 |
8e3c15d8b826cd9f8dede6c2742e1f4a870b4914 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x7455acc612c2e5028d7dca9e0b63472a9e05ebc6f0ec01d4c6672fc79b6e7f91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | 78,252,721 | 78,252,721 |
4f5ec27344a2b4272ff12bee219dba07c874ade0 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x8f62ff73db1eefd485624f1c5b1745f43830c52532697d5776d5caf71d2095d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | 78,252,721 | 78,252,721 |
a9fba527b5283c6b48f02d8a67103b13325e00f5 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xc048375329805fc6881dccc2606d1367869d8ef9c6bfd9aa67b17197bd3cd9d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | 78,252,721 | 78,252,721 |
9d97d3a1b02460612d3dcbb7ea02a77217edae08 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x837ff7b95840333469eee46b6bc0fedd563e107ff9bc1bbd50683b962754a3f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,266,938 | 78,266,938 |
c1333fe3c583b6890310b4c5e972f6ce86313d06 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x347f53bdd9fb66b7b629747cead62a003df552072f7874f3f367c9d9fe3543e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? | Event: first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,289,709 | 78,289,709 |
246db0559aa499b9935ab78e1b83f7a775b454f2 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x42a91a324af668ef7a4c78e4d6ad9c73840caadce82d61892dfc3e821d49fde3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? | Event: first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | 78,289,709 | 78,289,709 |
178b8e174ec214a660bf0284095b38360d78a411 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x48f1c954c09456690fec588cadd59724c4fe3c0d7576364cb72931a346b3c1f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | 78,289,709 | 78,289,709 |
de45af3eb9ec8d991c739e2d751905185f204127 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x5e2d2c60ae7e740219eabd7ce2c76607dc6358ae5c8d7b357156f63982bfe409 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? | Event: first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | 78,289,709 | 78,289,709 |
4e9774ec1414c936515bd6f4a28ac735c9606d0d | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x625eb8c95010638c62f9e4294c7ae1382e8a4e14b67547251cdf8747fa464c18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? | Event: first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? | Event: first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | 78,289,709 | 78,289,709 |
972f4d0c581f83d50443c6dcae62e2d52497d94e | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xa09ef8c8868b2bb0fa30d6ef3ba90f411265c178fe276836d7666a61a1ffa906 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? | Event: first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | 78,289,709 | 78,289,709 |
465b9d0f4443137794c64c88253f9ab7c6c3c24c | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xbd52471769a1fd1d607a9d8834246a4013a0feef15b2ba73d6fdeccd3ac1410a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | 78,289,709 | 78,289,709 |
319ccd71eb068d0ed2988438b8c1f91510054459 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xc1ea58102d6390f41f88948dd0af936135b332984b28760922fec3863a38d0d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? | Event: first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | 78,289,709 | 78,289,709 |
413c01f340700bebbaf52f3c0e0b8478a6056725 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xe1ade3ef20ce124a92a601b420c2900d5a1cb31d67c96dedb0a527424ff198b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? | Event: first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | 78,289,709 | 78,289,709 |
6b2aaf336d07fb4ba6581cb9f13916aed25b97cd | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xfe5bb19e1c2251dfcdc97eb96a27364bc3c82d0a5f92951085bd38d69dacc7dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | 78,289,709 | 78,289,709 |
6cd88a09e55990fe8c7ae6da1a48a962bfda2f3b | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x057ac44e5fb46a9dad928819bb0169007ead1bb5f53055e0f361110c82e320d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will no leader be out in 2025? | Event: first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will A... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | 78,289,710 | 78,289,710 |
aed87959decba3dd0f7fa37ab3918f95745ea613 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x6fee03c269452059a5b749d49b93d5d9d9d941ccf6b40061af7a7a2bc6cf99ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will no leader be out in 2025? | Event: first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? | Event: first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | 78,289,710 | 78,289,710 |
772dc19d78f5ede043d7a619305280fd6a430533 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xb4b05347e5705ec4f12affbac97f3011859a3919cb7c23b0509f11f2cd995d4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? | Event: first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,312,201 | 78,312,201 |
d074f1242236efcb1ccaf4303540becc67bc4970 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xd9b98d22fb9b748b63d66dbe42e64cdab9abe7b6ee29f5295e6e06377689bdb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,405,927 | 78,405,927 |
6973aaacb9d6dfe6cded2d399b254078c696c99b | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x1ae161b9d1c4de26d5e5c539be064ed7bc0755cc133b938c305c54a2aba013bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,461,588 | 78,461,588 |
a23118d22801dc7a03d7742126a831f70a7e8a14 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x26cd4df06c751a1030c618a0a4cf3bc548a2ba1288ffcc24e647ddaa477d0a95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,461,588 | 78,461,588 |
1df9c28a88c274163ca82154eddefd94902e722f | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x2998c7e13260192dde30e7bcffb1bf73b10caa17ae07492f51db19e98d7cc673 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,461,588 | 78,461,588 |
ce3e99b20e75a0a6549d5cd2e45216700e88b6c0 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x32e6d93e3e1fa838d72f24bafba1ff200b0b1bd6d9d3bccb8ee46e43b7200916 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,461,588 | 78,461,588 |
0086e4cb7f9f6f135ac1fdbcb793a09e5e534f2b | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x3e5ac95cdd6ab5d96ff7db878891520b118b2c82d833ba7daa723eb42b11a454 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,461,588 | 78,461,588 |
105f44d6ac312452d7a5777c676a9e05cd4d3738 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x40433147b7260eb7a0723b4f17717c41d6114d51497e162be6481e08424c7727 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,461,588 | 78,461,588 |
b0c29ca216faea80a16f32d89937b5204e38f77a | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x75fc0c8d8c838dfd36a784e120fe76f78917442cc5fdaec5178040ba90871a6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | Ch... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,461,588 | 78,461,588 |
fd1aabb517d8cd22b8409cabcaa59dd1638e8872 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xbbd14094d578d2d38687e0c330d0cc9338355df2f534f99de2efa118651b335d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Ch... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,461,588 | 78,461,588 |
0b5850fee757a8a512d5a5cfeb41007747b4e49f | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xc56a4924b011ba77a2c27d83f480b789bdb940f5066914a732194a0c39eb095d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,461,588 | 78,461,588 |
40e16d02c1059f0d0fff6585072e3b6b02b9d1a0 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xc7660a1087df2d57b35d9018f045ad553abb489b8cadf40205457b8c87afda41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,461,588 | 78,461,588 |
8132eff6050bd9467b0c36def25161d835153913 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xd49113164501734831cd57d29f0d5f5f1d4e11cb08c01c636f2220b8073e4be4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,461,588 | 78,461,588 |
7486bac1a99ed9b6e9c49ab6bcb78bb9dc797545 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xdc9f0336aec9a4226f717df6dbad8705396d11814fce72628e6b4fccee09dde4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,461,588 | 78,461,588 |
1282a6938018b2fc148497f3c6f5f0e7eaea0409 | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x7f48d9194a4f94d299e850a07e59f4a6436b828446e2c92f58ea6a01264c460e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04?
Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | 76,056,747 | 76,056,747 |
d8cbeb119fd45b2f87402a85e470e89d53ab27e3 | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x49b09aa1c05aa1c333efd886292d42ee57282e040bc7ef42803001b19a890c29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04?
Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidenc... | yes | 1 | uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | 76,095,147 | 76,095,147 |
e927df4a69face310a5aa8fe5ef10cd7c79281fc | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x68fc0330ee672c28e85a4d56086104dfa4b16ccd81c7010d118429c303ab374a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw?
Event: uef-nld-pol-20... | yes | 1 | uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | 76,095,147 | 76,095,147 |
65354213a35037794ada03a939194c1d5a82e295 | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x266221efb4cd5a6d47bcec13ab69766561d334b37cf1ac17ec4c7da0a60ff3b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | lal-rso-rea-2025-09-13 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-13? | 76,436,183 | 76,436,183 |
86e91b55bc474ff3ec9ac0e56b3d68a52119471a | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x0656c73b782f5a69acd827353913ef341bc6db54e514dbb87d11d4ee51da39b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | epl-bur-liv-2025-09-14 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-14? | 76,449,704 | 76,449,704 |
bb5a33f15162e5afe66280bb95ba0c0acde8fe05 | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x774c912a1bc4ac49a2416bcd09ffd45e89021f55f82277af6fc6faf765c6616a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-mun-2025-09-14 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14? | 76,530,335 | 76,530,335 |
c3428f8d0e37f25c1385e2a17f5a7c5c546e58b8 | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0xc57c48ea08192107f7981b041ba115663b3d14935ea4315337a5e64351ddfa5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | ucl-ath-ars-2025-09-16 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16? | 76,567,594 | 76,567,594 |
975ecc43daa23f37f31871ddccc84ba6882656af | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0xd62a43379a790c695d40bb724c669a87c237aaf7799907d00e14fe7badb573cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-ata-2025-09-17 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-09-17? | 76,673,403 | 76,673,403 |
ae4ce8d36784ae904bdbb8888c388b47fe1e810e | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x5683a82e53f53fb58c08f8b7bbb11edc4392d12b73eefc37a765918ad9ceb83e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 76,872,257 | 76,872,257 |
08ec2c260c84cc12770d179949a81c6a17ebc512 | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0xab3eac189555b839ddaa859d54d621193f6fe304ccee3b24c6600d54237b658b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | lal-ovi-bar-2025-09-25 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25? | 76,927,984 | 76,927,984 |
7e74c949d59609af2c1cecb5f21ce87c8dd8eb23 | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0xc35fa42e207ef1f97dea25b852e2678329c9344605ee6aa21667c5d57b2001f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | golf-ryder-cup-winner | Will Europe win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | 77,041,843 | 77,041,843 |
351915af5f7c99ca37d4d095a55c562655bc517f | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x8a65d6d3a472606b167bfa8544faba42a29616afb086884b883127955d3564ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | 77,208,545 | 77,208,545 |
2d83384298b4ffb90d6af7de98a2b3b151c9fcb7 | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x4434bd2753c24257ab8a7b763b967e9310cdb4ad26a408f6eea370920f35faec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | lal-rea-vil-2025-10-04 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-04? | 77,273,932 | 77,273,932 |
0882159c89f3963b846e0c3694d13ad1472f6c1a | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0xc5f62d57a201a43248c0a62560a63b1cd8e56e0ae1918eacae5d8ead4acf63b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | epl-lee-tot-2025-10-04 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-04? | 77,273,932 | 77,273,932 |
760859727b918030bd6a89ccb8eb1480832c1b96 | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x4446f12abe3cfe4c2786207a6d2ff1fba0f13b6a4776b9fb51a2772f1bd6c3e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | epl-new-not-2025-10-05 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-10-05? | 77,303,467 | 77,303,467 |
6f0d3366b1e1c14cdb4973035250df1dbf7cdb5a | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x4ada31e165e003e3accdd4e90b3145bec7e463a7698d3e61a644fca7b2160b89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | fl1-str-ang-2025-10-05 | Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-10-05? | 77,303,467 | 77,303,467 |
b8c537318fe944d9b27c1d22f3051ceab669d09f | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x53794a11d4048a1c8424e85465581d6555a0ef710e4628551a248eabd392bad7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-bur-2025-10-05 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-05? | 77,303,467 | 77,303,467 |
8874861d9c5af3375ae1f64095a4150fef02fc18 | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x4472973213244c75974e74162c79f4c51878dd027d332796d209ad5529ea227f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19? | 77,979,870 | 77,979,870 |
34fca25ec6f40fe4b5faa6a94354533d8edd9329 | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x6357420f127da202885b329b0ab345d8e4cad127e8f85f3919cbcc43b5fc1511 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | 78,063,643 | 78,063,643 |
04f94857bb85d9597b533490acb2807f79b3881f | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x2428b9533849e9696b1b8f6cea9d8e3c9d30dc31abb32f4d7a8f69401be5dd88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | bun-dor-koe-2025-10-25 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-25? | 78,179,817 | 78,179,817 |
f6524d1ca6a800d72faf2527cd4e02e6046d9a7c | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x6cb996d8145b430f2e510c243342c4f08a610c5cccbcadb44b815bc0cebfda5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | no | 0.604719 | mexican-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? | 78,179,817 | 78,179,817 |
ea9367f3825eae62f818ae8c849a09dc1c833d9a | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x7e0f01cd95c28d2699259d70026370333982734d5c951d084e7e56be7498097a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | fl1-sbr-psg-2025-10-25 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,179,817 | 78,179,817 |
f71192a8ce7555702a24aa31cc6691be2e79d0bf | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0xcd0584cc42c7869bc28d977a951086549c08fd89c42a5515154508dd51a1ca49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | mexican-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? | 78,179,817 | 78,179,817 |
b5f32b3cd8405c719de1eec27960b2271b5f5d4d | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x0d6d94166622df9ef7f7f4af250d49ba55f10ac037759b049444fb4e9c585fa6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | 78,205,252 | 78,205,252 |
2916b59ca4d5ff45022a96fc23b3c592451035ed | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x3a7cd6b4c02882654bb7b63f2fc496683095890a9ed42efd4dd5980ce23dd19c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-not-2025-10-26 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-26? | 78,205,252 | 78,205,252 |
b4225d1867264d3f8117a66132722eac7adee7b1 | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x4e51de3129b76add333dcfe7a46d60c2c98f059b5e1b1753cf5418d3e475e96a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | sea-int-fio-2025-10-29 | Will Inter win on 2025-10-29? | 78,385,456 | 78,385,456 |
2fd0e393310c28c5c8ac38045b3ae91ff3fd42f6 | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0xbee1056f1b7baf74b6de84e7609684dffd1eb0b966a8a859804f22bdb0091b53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | efl-bha-ars-2025-10-29 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,385,456 | 78,385,456 |
28914df134b3cc31667c11b41d1f118947db4d4d | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x21bed20d85e87128ba93e619002026a101b8d2625df86b00cf48c549fe8e828c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | aus-per-vic-2025-10-31 | Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2025-10-31? | 78,493,914 | 78,493,914 |
b45a1d2621b564084fd4d2fdf393f9364254ba14 | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x51fca26bfb303236808470edef8f061512fe5a762ec4a1c8571e7592223c392c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-che-2025-11-01 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-01? | 78,493,914 | 78,493,914 |
67a6e43bd62dc8468b513e088a46b12887cf19f9 | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0xc0ccbdadc3b92b954c0bf36de26e270cca570b0be0fef3f33d003d340dbcb9cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | 78,510,392 | 78,510,392 |
bbd74eaf6df3994bfad1695ee7af85c50ff74dc4 | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x21c9384cdf620feb2a9e2e3e0860b11fb1e2f20b39d084ce4b991b3a32e6c54d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | ... | yes | 1 | lal-mad-lev-2025-11-08 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-08? | 78,801,150 | 78,801,150 |
cbd1234544a799c05dfeb40243c5adcec6e92098 | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x83c3219f7e6226329af9c0c641dd3cfacf5601f104a8c8c4cfaef70e976a58e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-rso-rea-2025-09... | yes | 1 | epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | 78,801,150 | 78,801,150 |
208d0cf28448927a07e7917ea0eb517f03d23b51 | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x845378a54948d20f4068bee3ad7d10306e71edcca3e69acfadc6b4699ea05798 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | Event: uef-nld-pol-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-rso-rea-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-14? | Event: epl-bur-liv-2025-... | yes | 1 | f1-brazilian-grand-prix-sprint-winner-2025-11-08 | Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | 78,801,150 | 78,801,150 |
741f4744f6c69f05091107945adc7a673e31d591 | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x971b6376b65b1d76ddd60143143b5d68b129de1f91033a2d074c6ef2e2158ae4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-rso-rea-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-14? | Event: epl-bur-liv-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2025-09-... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | 78,928,735 | 78,928,735 |
a5854a718c4e0f868d096d70d979dde0f5d43083 | 0x3257501508b82c2f7aeb914088b6ed089f362f3b | 0x02845376345cabf28fd8f90707ecf97d298e13c8555909ce6b75bbf66653b7a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-14? | Event: epl-bur-liv-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-ath-ars-2025-09-16 |... | yes | 1 | uef-aze-isl-2025-11-13 | Will Iceland win on 2025-11-13? | 79,012,305 | 79,012,305 |
b147046f898a76dd2a6d4ed834d9e8dc131ea4a1 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0xeaf9e4ed256c1bb22c4c165a02c5aea59738fb48b6e674c3ad8818e382889dfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?
Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | 78,460,671 | 78,460,671 |
1189e761120dbf014ad111e95c9596d220b86877 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0xebe7dbdb9d78332b388a127eaa89fd09cc4127023d45b0105e9948cbfed1b3fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1?
Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | 78,460,671 | 78,460,671 |
b99b07dfe2e04a79387bcf5c383e1bb5a3198612 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x0a69601d8ccda200e6af21ebeb5bc64e76657dd573d7e1b09eb4e21b02a25132 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? | 78,486,232 | 78,486,232 |
bbedec655f32d9bc6092df05e7e8355de0533f89 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x185ead9822ce7a1b2dfd2c4102d601ed38b7d97ef465193a625f3a7ef000e499 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | yes | 1 | bra-cru-vit-2025-11-01 | Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,486,232 | 78,486,232 |
7f0103dd759e1b2385a60bfe98bb96f4532f1945 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x845c5b66c73133d90f46a303acee9462b6b51d812df174deae1ce418678d716e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | yes | 1 | tur-kon-sam-2025-11-02 | Will Samsunspor win on 2025-11-02? | 78,501,897 | 78,501,897 |
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