sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
55827cda2b2d4451e6721497e855fc5b0ced367b | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x98cf9c5fbf38e50a8eaad1fb81af3aa38a038e54aca764a61d53ba774bc1ede7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-2025 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets in November 2025? | 78,872,253 | 78,872,253 |
cc4e07f0e585f471f5a8f41cc3e4b97d5d509c40 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x30fd463b6b21dd33680aee14089a5db97819aa9335fe10cd7b24f1eea62157e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | yes | 1 | how-many-us-senators-vote-yea-on-the-next-funding-bill-by-november-30 | Will exactly 60 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30? | 78,910,764 | 78,910,764 |
97241fe4fbddeb4da07e169d480808999711f2f3 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0xe483fafaefb3385101938bc7a312cc26ca56ce2662ba46b81e1ed8beb6813e58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | yes | 1 | she-tas-sou-2025-11-09 | Will Southern Redbacks win? | 78,933,177 | 78,933,177 |
077d6f22acc685eb0d07989d54777648d7325acb | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0xf168cd30a7e01a343f79c7ef815a0424257b166522d94f9b30aa978b7cf60d7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | no | 1 | she-tas-sou-2025-11-09 | Will the match end in a draw? | 78,936,899 | 78,936,899 |
841c9ced9ec58c69d7979dca48066e62dcf55632 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x0630750389cbc2614813a448f474489c97377999cd4397eaa126734a1c0652df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | yes | 1 | how-many-us-house-members-vote-yea-on-the-next-funding-bill-by-november-30 | Will between 221 and 222 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30? | 78,958,945 | 78,958,945 |
cea1eba26ee7ab01f3a1bb22d76ebcebbe97e347 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0xdbf00bad3282240ea33412a80045caf5fbc57607477779888171dd948d964309 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-2025 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in November 2025? | 78,976,931 | 78,976,931 |
7ec1292131f4a3a989ab27f26e9ef15158b2cd66 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x2edfbd82507f366128f83ff52e982ff49005a5380d1e7540cb2c959552af2adf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | yes | 1 | caf-nga-gab-2025-11-13 | Will Nigeria vs. Gabon end in a draw? | 78,997,294 | 78,997,294 |
8b8e9d7660a405d7714181e42ba3741e974aea3e | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0xab9cd077df16527fc2c39b4b1691a961bb6f9859b9454f8c11dd2c975d2a54ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | yes | 1 | fif-ksa-civ-2025-11-14 | Will Saudi Arabia win on 2025-11-14? | 79,026,028 | 79,026,028 |
ef5c6cd023ebaeaeba80a06037ad04edcec004b6 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0xf7ea26f3778ff22fdb03ff9550e1739165f490014eae70548cf75f4483bc6e41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-275 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | 79,066,934 | 79,066,934 |
4a434269a37eb4eadf32ffc037c9145152c4b255 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x3deeef2b39339a6715dc97b189bfd54412d0ab3fae60c3db490b46d0b650a0b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | yes | 1 | cde-rac-thi-2025-11-16 | Will Racing Besançon win on 2025-11-16? | 79,089,257 | 79,089,257 |
6a17528d4fd46f1e6b7e46e2342ecce99324e39d | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0xe8352c029de05a3a88d65776c4c507f8b3f8bdf479409f6856dca6ac5e307903 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | no | 1 | 2025-fide-world-cup-second-place | Will Daniil Dubov finish second in the 2025 FIDE World Cup? | 79,099,696 | 79,099,696 |
901a6624f117b312ca569dca6ae6cac542dd0936 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x990da5cb42847870916d21704ca03e89968fa47ad2423dc53b23fd703e2aa3e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | yes | 1 | cs2-blast-rivals-season-2-2025-winner | Will FURIA win the 2025 Blast Premier Rivals Season 2 Tournament? | 79,103,148 | 79,103,148 |
60ec68ebc0bb81d6eb6d2bf7de4c7680e0578d14 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x0098a301147a5c1f890a14b57d2c403228af9cd7e19e10cba38f199d358d2c43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | no | 1 | uniswap-cup | Will SEED Latam win 2025 Uniswap Cup? | 79,126,223 | 79,126,223 |
d173cb4595feca398e56cc6578b26f8dc7505e22 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x69d37cfe877dd141fada3a192f03dcfb481a57111a78b71bd1f28b29b41facb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,100 on November 16? | 79,126,223 | 79,126,223 |
6befbe0377d88cd6f0d63d639b4e470e5e93823a | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0xfc4ed8140d56ad27107b7a6b229952fd69ee542e8b0b2a1f55aa4ca1ccb96bf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-chile-presidential-election-first-round | Will turnout in the first round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be at least 53%? | 79,145,129 | 79,145,129 |
b2782b49d0cd8f807bcc06ba5f0642efa913b254 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0xed2b46966c83699930cf627e7b971ee28c04e2fbdd5e78eb84795bd3fd52ca75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | no | 1 | turnout-in-2025-chile-presidential-election-first-round-higher-brackets | Will turnout in the first round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be less than 75%? | 79,145,209 | 79,145,209 |
1fceb4a1a616ae72b9b3332669dbab5930b9b737 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x880f72f104974149063c0fa0d7510736e07c4d33d689a9e58f454e163c87e717 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | yes | 1 | fif-far-kaz-2025-11-18 | Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-11-18? | 79,213,105 | 79,213,105 |
4dcd70b36ab8342285b4d24b6d38c237c2406d7a | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0xa76cf1393b402b13075f0f0e6549b34105f9d8aeac37c55bbee0fa8bf5268335 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | yes | 1 | cma-awards-album-of-the-year | Will Whirlwind by Lainey Wilson be the Album of the Year at the 59th annual CMA Awards? | 79,270,588 | 79,270,588 |
8ca4b0b241bdfd335e980b573400df473e2252cb | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0xfa34b6778494d21850655ca02b45d3660876b98721dae1d57d5d00caec044738 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | yes | 1 | f1-las-vegas-grand-prix-driver-pole-position-2025-11-21 | Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | 79,352,405 | 79,352,405 |
b657e0cbae94747c4b200bc9b1b75d36d6cf1b87 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x43a06bfc7a5bf31b5ef0ca177bea7511d325253821e78d354787b3db1e11ccad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | no | 1 | f1-las-vegas-grand-prix-driver-fastest-lap-2025-11-22 | Will Gabriel Bortoleto achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | 79,401,433 | 79,401,433 |
ffaacc1f6e57c85ab518aaf36a964189256be43f | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x6a61b8de07d21958e7cce020239b9f3b3b8bb30ba43def9f54f94e92d3407de4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | no | 1 | f1-las-vegas-grand-prix-constructor-scores-1st-2025-11-22 | Will Red Bull have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | 79,401,433 | 79,401,433 |
5bb5a8d3338bf4fcc7bf3f4b12d36d80b814d7c4 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0xa90b0e272bd359daf38d44e80ccdb47da76f3f68acc4cbce5aeab64309f541c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | no | 1 | f1-las-vegas-grand-prix-constructor-fastest-lap-2025-11-22 | Will Haas achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | 79,401,433 | 79,401,433 |
09c292dd4dfaa6cd4de5780f15e9274b8917e3ef | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0xb53bce83312b97c0440bd08e2094ebcb82dcb0679e93389935cec211062e000a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | no | 1 | ere-tel-utr-2025-11-23 | Will Telstar 1963 win on 2025-11-23? | 79,409,760 | 79,409,760 |
b1772f2c2aafd9df8a8d7a66a0331719bfbd4ab6 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x2b468385aafa103c920b5535bb3b40b5430791c67db0d55899be05f6d6bef2f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | yes | 1 | fl1-sbr-met-2025-11-23 | Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-11-23? | 79,428,655 | 79,428,655 |
2888224aedb83feb2f37ceb7cb3d459e7e5f908a | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x2d8698b3e37b28d0fb1b7da423ff6cbc0a4854e2cc38205a3a023f563dc49bfc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | yes | 1 | itsb-mon-ces-2025-11-23 | Will AC Monza win on 2025-11-23? | 79,428,655 | 79,428,655 |
f1472ba22ff80385d861cd9eadde729376483ea9 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0xa9b1c5be2cab731c566785ee68bfe7098b0d3d587a3f0335668e345d7d08e286 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713... | yes | 1 | tur-iba-tra-2025-11-24 | Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-11-24? | 79,472,046 | 79,472,046 |
a6ea7b2b2befa428429af68cec196480f08a4eef | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x69d8be82ee452867b6eda8f471e30436d2c7295eaef21848b1b506319798606b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cruzeiro EC... | no | 1 | goodreads-choice-awards-readers-favorite-mystery-thriller | Will Heartwood (Amity Gaige) win Readers' Favorite Mystery & Thriller in the 2025 Goodreads Choice Awards? | 79,476,424 | 79,476,424 |
0656012a66fde4beb22c476363807e7b7b105305 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0xfa58b76b7e08c578f71446f64253200ac68c1c433f388358ec742cb72eebfabe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bra-cru-vit-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-11-02? | Event: tur-kon-sam-2025-11-02 | ... | no | 1 | goodreads-choice-awards-readers-favorite-audiobook | Will Sister Wife (Christine Brown Woolley) win Readers’ Favorite Audiobook in the 2025 Goodreads Choice Awards? | 79,476,424 | 79,476,424 |
57c32eb374ecd9e9016973d2e71a9c1c6a6e441e | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x62d15172a52d7d915b849660a3b329135d49cd194c24b1fc8c2fa467b3dcc505 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bra-cru-vit-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-11-02? | Event: tur-kon-sam-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets in November 2025? | Event: elon-m... | yes | 1 | es2-ceu-alm-2025-11-26 | Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2025-11-26? | 79,544,870 | 79,544,870 |
ab9bb8e719d00738f2d68f18fe5bae23be5503b7 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0xdd6e227ece8a03ca2c5c96a5d566a8c89be199ee5a6fb1723e822b9b3a0ff088 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-11-02? | Event: tur-kon-sam-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets in November 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will exactly 60 U.S. senators vote "Yea" ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-21-november-28 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? | 79,558,266 | 79,558,266 |
5fd03a85b870e4f527ff22c83735d6a1821eace2 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x12989d9355a6879eb8896db00ca8ba1fb52654aaca23e27fc9de33db3d781e84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets in November 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will exactly 60 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30? | Event: how-many-us-senators-vote-yea-on-the-next-funding-bill-by-nove... | no | 1 | uefa-europa-league-winner | Will Malmö win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? | 79,601,609 | 79,601,609 |
58e0563bf1c18a030ae8c0c41b8bb9549c1642b8 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x36a5d28b2e3454f03520a703ae9ed37c241045956b19caf32a42adcec2d66f77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will exactly 60 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30? | Event: how-many-us-senators-vote-yea-on-the-next-funding-bill-by-november-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southern Redbacks win? | Event: she-tas-sou-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | uel-por1-ogc-2025-11-27 | Will FC Porto win on 2025-11-27? | 79,601,609 | 79,601,609 |
dce7163f2874f62fc7c02bd6b33ee9b5ba501328 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x38efe98442316350eeadb4d2eb91c32bfea41f6d065ee47fa788609ec4544155 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Southern Redbacks win? | Event: she-tas-sou-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match end in a draw? | Event: she-tas-sou-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will between 221 and 222 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by... | yes | 1 | uel-lud1-cel4-2025-11-27 | Will PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad win on 2025-11-27? | 79,601,609 | 79,601,609 |
8cf1303fb5b28e25ac46e02a8839df0d152d5b68 | 0x3298488d0f4af79aa44634e95f03f4ba8669b714 | 0x238417fc62abbad9b72b20924034d1ed18f858215397da750495090cf486786b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match end in a draw? | Event: she-tas-sou-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will between 221 and 222 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30? | Event: how-many-us-house-members-vote-yea-on-the-next-funding-bill-by-november-30 | Choic... | no | 1 | cfb-2025-26-davey-obrien-award-winner | Will Blake Horvath win the 2025–2026 Davey O'Brien Award? | 79,625,330 | 79,625,330 |
6492d8206a28436c6e2947f774ad64b9c8a0b819 | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0x3a0a1b7d617d2df321aa6d4866d7ab396cb3dfce490b530f32977a2683b88d4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election?
Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | illinois-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | 65,302,619 | 65,302,619 |
422fb824940c0469fd2e3e02f922a4a57f385bb0 | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-se... | yes | 1 | how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 | Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | 65,302,619 | 65,302,619 |
0ca5515b653ecc880b149e322c081e84e72158b1 | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0xad21c89875ef3a59aafb4d70d5e916f1915704c011d5ce65e2cecc55da0f9328 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 |... | yes | 1 | the-house-poker-night-first-player-felted | Will Malcolm be the first player to get felted in The House Poker Night? | 65,302,619 | 65,302,619 |
8cbd265978e7e1235f6652ae188d779b8f0c70a3 | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0xb0a06b05d49947a302d0c3648add3b6d6660380de6bdb6b79f0007f18daf3adb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 |... | no | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ | 65,302,619 | 65,302,619 |
c514b005881db96f4129cbfffedd20da79307a81 | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0xdce82e4e00b4b158b255af3f176dbf67130f1910381857b9ce882b0a4f4788f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 |... | no | 1 | illinois-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Illinois Presidential Election? | 65,302,619 | 65,302,619 |
e70737a444c62cc41bff8451cc940e75045b54f4 | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0xee2e38c3d30a1696197ffa7f75b0add15d69844df51c55cd36136416d1d1f6bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 |... | no | 1 | f1-constructors-championship-winner | Will Red Bull win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship? | 65,302,619 | 65,302,619 |
2b60a9c07c447ec12e005d1d8381a75366ad728a | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0xf15c3b1459441d68519b4a698e8b971ffc9001d8a0438010e8acc2d0fc083c75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 |... | yes | 1 | iowa-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Iowa Presidential Election? | 65,302,619 | 65,302,619 |
0f9f42d6f5e8a8eac6d27db679eb26c722892edf | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0xf596957aa36f2749bc6f18b15ecb262a4a13d5be5660b39194fc21465d9ddde8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 |... | no | 1 | florida-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 65,302,619 | 65,302,619 |
6e369e50b2af469de4160032ac9348a9f9238af7 | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0x256e3a7d960ea5bf8129185f385c1ee5324db94070a7f5a486658bc9040575a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 |... | no | 1 | who-will-replace-larry-fink-as-blackrock-ceo | Martin Small announced as next BlackRock CEO? | 66,182,829 | 66,182,829 |
e35c79a102e6394d9c25f8780cb43d9a74f0e9e9 | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0xc7599c7b33b64f891750b57439384d163f547600fed4a6007918751f8f37740d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 |... | yes | 1 | ethereum-all-time-high-wen | No Ethereum all time high in 2024? | 66,182,829 | 66,182,829 |
052b2ffb2741e01d8fac1db2b570b52bbdca1e00 | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0xcd30346281d728bb08a85f4e36adccdd3c443300fa74aaefc7a4ee83744b4f49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 |... | no | 1 | first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? | 66,182,829 | 66,182,829 |
f35632bf5543d857f815e1cd93ce9e14007c3a11 | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0xdca85943cda4d8822e2277e8cdad22cd7a03d0383d0e517aa17ce0e3ee2c6115 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 |... | no | 1 | what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2024? | 66,182,829 | 66,182,829 |
7c31bbcaa14b20d8656d823c330fedd6bf2838b4 | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0xd23320a1837ec592006e367aade4fd9f4875ccf11192466b91edd808e194b49b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 |... | yes | 1 | fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Will Lamar Jackson be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | 66,389,422 | 66,389,422 |
39b157d6a0f07ad7978d69a4af7b190b8516f794 | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0xf112a927d48b37e0741f19f4c9fb8ac7d40442432762eb4e7c72090cd03e3a82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 |... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-december | Will US add more than 300k jobs in December 2024? | 66,583,331 | 66,583,331 |
7cace2355510c9d06172e55558f6e326aff03c57 | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0xa17e0a4832ae8e2583804e09d8ec1ae280ba2df6f35564158f87e0d03916db56 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-28 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 34°F or below on January 28? | 67,527,195 | 67,527,195 |
bcbf0e91c898947fa2b489b46b296c1890bd487e | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0x8355f454f28e23171a2b27d491cadc12195633816067cf36399db9ca0d2680e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 |... | yes | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his-first-week | Will Donald Trump issue 25-49 executive orders in his first week? | 67,527,212 | 67,527,212 |
702d4b013becbce0f238926e969b6d2cdd10b569 | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0x7f6dfeff7129c589470b97d9413a3c7540c222b9c8a64d31ad7bd802bdd00a92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 |... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his-first-week-lower-options | Will Donald Trump issue 31-33 executive orders in his first week? | 67,527,220 | 67,527,220 |
b4c01cba26eda4ab52215550f31b49784696ac66 | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0x195282164c4023c238c600fe4e8fef781d8d41fe997fc8af6f27bc198b539866 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 |... | no | 1 | where-will-jimmy-butler-get-traded | Will Lonzo Ball get traded to the Miami Heat? | 69,658,042 | 69,658,042 |
d643fa13be8ce26a6da4d78de296f75a6725c8b2 | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0xeae90b223e9b2c835cc744d155169b4b3ac35d0eb8500835652ab8f13d1c1a33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 |... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-4 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90000 and $88000 on April 4? | 71,282,592 | 73,812,602 |
85a528a6e7f84917800d19290205391e8ea0d5fc | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0x6a697a68bc06abf48bdd3116d8b6263d59afa2952ed6900824f42b109a4adcde | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 |... | no | 1 | romania-presidential-election | Will Mircea Geoană win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? | 71,282,594 | 71,282,594 |
df6500987f5fdf155bcd21172e94409a17633a86 | 0x329c046aae0d4c8ead4da7e96c5c58e4fadf2837 | 0xf211a2877117660d9369cd9941a9f88451fc39c26457a9d3e2e4baa8d7794664 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Event: illinois-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 |... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-9 | Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 9? | 73,812,708 | 73,812,708 |
a2370028107733c87d759600384357ce096a69e4 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xae2ddbd8b578968ac9ffa812701808124c28a9cb4e1e2bba6080a56e11466b89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Biden not drop out by July 26?
Event: when-will-biden-drop-out
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | when-will-biden-drop-out | Biden not drop out by July 26? | 59,649,911 | 59,649,911 |
ac7aade8d2f77458cf59c168558de65c65358dc6 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xa38ba4160f2d96abfc1b5a94932d4037e6609688d662a1b4cf87c6fa81767600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District?
Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner
Predict the user's choice and confiden... | no | 1 | az-8-republican-primary-winner | Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | 59,966,007 | 59,966,007 |
96132ea1dd8112f180f9aa8a3aea108a563c7c4b | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x4043107449bc2145e5c31d0551c6940d72d3d8cf9d81a17115eb111635cb55a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Que... | yes | 1 | deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | 60,068,330 | 60,068,330 |
7d50c4f55d1b75dbc542f55fe1e0ac94fa6373de | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xeeb5658ea7b4a6d30c420fe61541aca9184f2eac50748ae879c0c8e5d97a121b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | yes | 1 | deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross less than $110m opening weekend? | 60,068,345 | 60,068,345 |
58e3dc8f3759eeee05e2c297a87d26e7c84e5a2d | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x17620fcf724a1f33730294e7cb5b6cd09a4cd37b0a635173cf839709c5500b5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | yes | 1 | deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $110m and $130m opening weekend? | 60,068,854 | 60,068,854 |
0d726c36061272d308013acad824f20ea9e244db | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xea4f844e900758d5a3f931918fd505dd165329c2fd9425530de656d864916f10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | no | 1 | deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | 60,068,864 | 60,068,864 |
a8ecfa0f21d4815cc989fb10b523d08126371f51 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xaa69f9c948b8a162eb305285bf31a581868c23a289573889b27361726c213b64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | no | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Will another movie gross most in 2024? | 60,273,280 | 60,273,280 |
39c2e7cb09ba4a2df7b962dcafc57893d923ee82 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x158bef7cf4b9990e61297fe952bc6359fef06361d56604ef467a48c2055fa8e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | yes | 1 | democratic-vp-nominee | Will Kamala Harris be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | 60,285,813 | 60,285,813 |
58bcad2b33668329e72883a6f8a23ee56833206a | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x3faf3dbf90050968deafdc980118910ebe8d2410a573bc265ba81fc4658c793b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | yes | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,285,813 | 60,285,813 |
0d881cba69fed9753a3941e006b60d8b8d02e8d0 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xd6f4c41fd20b8c6d5b48d528ead981d8fdf3da99d05018443e2d5bc60085e3dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | yes | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,285,813 | 60,285,813 |
72496b253b0765ba73d6ab65ef0b7ce912f11d34 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xe721d257bb72949a6c61a77847b7880519a6164a8211e815da15eccd750c4626 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | yes | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,285,813 | 60,285,813 |
0ab7054f2560e109ee437e70793d3383a5239b8d | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x229698a09fd7f46161a64fbf7983cdff7f1bdbf67f8e9c954a7ac5992be32a3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | no | 0.000077 | paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-gold-medals | USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | 60,459,649 | 60,459,649 |
ca618fdefea4863ba2abd56a81ababb361768114 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x5402187231ac1a0721c02141bee0a0015fce33d515eadb33e07843be0c103a58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | no | 1 | 3rd-most-gold-medals-at-paris-olympics-1 | Will Japan win the 3rd most gold medals? | 60,459,780 | 60,459,780 |
e3739c2ca623b1d362482b5b06e7840d4ebc38d1 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xbce0ff6f8ee396ec39e76c8b60d747272e8bf4bd65f31d0e131b64aceb0be3b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | no | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024? | 60,473,848 | 60,473,848 |
e6ea720552d6374c8868a1dd38afb561c361732d | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x7a004110dd7f653f6f0d6d0034a6acec37c32c00f9dd8d24028e19b900023100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | no | 1 | beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross less than $75m opening weekend? | 60,828,972 | 61,312,013 |
3a5179593de20beddf9e54261700d84198f24ce5 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xf9a9aef82bb201abf51a6d892129a41293039af1393f17ed2db25f2d84a0d5f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | yes | 0.489657 | confirmed-case-of-monkeypox-in-us-by-sept-30 | Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30? | 60,833,137 | 62,497,159 |
1fa4cd361ba582593562563ff61f901fd67f4f06 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x39d82ada028f257111b606d76ca2930b639f60e10f05cb23193da57c08e1cf1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | yes | 0.783442 | israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-october | Israel x Hamas ceasefire before October? | 60,912,353 | 60,912,353 |
d8ebb3f08e73d92aeb012b752cd553c058876f3a | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xcd1baccff5a03b53bb77ae459f07419648b4e9a567def17d9bcb48c8e85b99a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | no | 0.000037 | who-will-speak-at-dnc | Will Taylor Swift speak at the DNC? | 60,918,305 | 60,920,004 |
56569f03e90167104d80153c669c62971113fc1a | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xc742af29d04c88556ac2aa327d1dc644a08ace04d8dd4b92e05c83d4a1545368 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | no | 1 | beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $95m and $105m opening weekend? | 60,942,733 | 60,954,550 |
ecf6d1dd576acbd4c4277c95527ca69262ebc0d3 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xc51d9169a3adb22cd010cc2cc01a7ae0dc3313bcfb345943d1feffdd99989c7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | yes | 0.00022 | another-biden-beach-day-in-september | Another Biden beach day in September? | 61,725,247 | 61,725,247 |
9ed4f4818f9d0f76d0871d6ae44da34a0e9d8dc5 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x09c2f5cff9250d14e9b5425166f6f8c78b4de224a2b84234b998f7b01131a515 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | no | 0 | nasrallah-remains-leader-of-hezbollah-through-october-31 | Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31? | 62,373,569 | 62,392,245 |
a1c54ee4b927fec97d5f0c21fd3a4d66e44e8606 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xc7582a1076d398c7b40798ea88ef911666844a11712af753cd7fcf783c86c755 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | no | 0 | israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-before-november | Israeli forces enter Lebanon before November? | 62,396,754 | 62,497,137 |
cfffb601bc764f194a1be7d1bf7e33c674e88ac0 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xf7a32ad3e848553228c259c88877bcc1490310b78293b6424c742bd1e2ee4ded | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | no | 1 | number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Will there be less than 11 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | 62,469,999 | 62,469,999 |
c844a1769dce86dd6161e2d9703090c8c4218d05 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x0c9294bbe102a05c9ae2c3008d54ed79167cc4e2f4cdc8fc90edbb731711ddcf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | no | 0.504718 | lana-del-rey-pregnant-in-2024 | Lana Del Rey pregnant in 2024? | 62,475,327 | 62,714,271 |
4075eecb147498c2a70f262962dee030d675df1e | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xdc38b041dac04feb5136d909c1b5e4912f538e851cd14eac48d2af5f95a07e6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | yes | 0.234401 | number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Will there be more than 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | 62,508,613 | 63,244,719 |
39247a42273a7eba0f1a5182dec162e176faef5c | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x1e59fbdc2beefc1981e1ac18b0f198f00969495ddb71a5714ddc9dcf8866087f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | no | 0.000047 | will-sinwar-leave-gaza-by-october-31 | Will Sinwar leave Gaza by October 31? | 62,558,898 | 62,558,898 |
b527d38b113c953272cc0f530617ade0b8e5bdf6 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x8b89400b21839d9615d424d7dbb55bfc7144f3def763b877c1a25d3506d3357c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | no | 0.006289 | israel-military-response-against-iran-tomorrow-oct-3 | Israel military response against Iran today? | 62,568,767 | 62,632,209 |
8f01f364e72c5e0f17fc800ecee2e892683856f5 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x6b01f79ee5ada0a16f0a967c0e857490e99669373c04ba8439b7e9723d58e031 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | yes | 0.00007 | will-ruusia-capture-chasiv-yar-before-december | Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December? | 62,625,829 | 62,625,829 |
740b4d76d3646b022d7e5ac6146dc82471c09dd7 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x23c79f71aa8100430af3c9db82fc4d698dfa1e79edb1ec3988cbd0f882d44672 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | yes | 0.61165 | cs2-iem-rio-2024-winner | Will Pain Gaming win IEM Rio 2024? | 62,626,014 | 62,771,050 |
7142e7d366b74832f411ddda157c5602e48a2164 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x1a5e70ce460cba7c87b1a990dc4bfc4df523507161291aef0f2e771b28af2736 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | yes | 0.000028 | ksis-thick-of-it-debuts-on-billboard-hot-100 | KSI's "Thick Of It" debuts on Billboard hot 100? | 62,664,064 | 62,788,639 |
360d090d66a658500f129490e982c81771edeeef | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x19018331b7e0351eac8cc7c9f5726c673eaaa98d76911c31b4c8f4c09bffbdb0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden not drop out by July 26? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | no | 0 | will-speed-break-the-24h-backflip-world-record | Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record? | 62,815,036 | 62,835,168 |
bb1abfcc03a7f5f5c6085939031ae36598d7145a | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x6d283e7709d0b7c7bbd499585e027e45118417bd0e3e2670912a03ae0ff3de90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-w... | no | 0.992881 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi? | 62,816,863 | 62,816,863 |
77bf9dbe9a414a3c828925f984de4ec1098c479d | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x9b02d64879d44fa91b0026d431c131f6ea8798e1cf94e2421e7402975abd0777 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross less than $110m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | yes | 0.999967 | number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Will there be between 11 and 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | 63,244,719 | 63,244,719 |
50d6a7e7181490c914cd6d4e56a5cf7da05108ef | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xad224aea4ab972f708e8d7db17ab5ea367edcd263e6a12b37a73d0aabfb43023 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross less than $110m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $110m and $130m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | no | 0 | turnout-in-2024-presidential-election | Will there be 175,000,000 or more votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election? | 63,878,547 | 63,887,923 |
d6b5f053ea2751c1e8ab595f50355a709c204678 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xfd87909158fa8139b8a11f3ae2af8f68f42d5fa7a17e892b984e43b76ae51dac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $110m and $130m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | no | 1 | tim-walz-out-as-democratic-vp-nominee | Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee? | 63,923,786 | 63,923,786 |
ad24e31909416da22a0e070db2de8ba9665fe3fe | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x2bb17cf77419913d2eabd2b5837f0561b5129d31617dc6c9390f7b257514f099 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another movie gross most in 2024? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-in-speech-after-election-is-called | Will Kamala say "Promise of America" in her speech after the election is called? | 63,930,619 | 63,930,619 |
8d61f0572b65f9dc204baa414e06cb77eef54b7b | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x36de03f6e55ea3f1686d7f7ef7cd6c70a84717a9985901ff61a815d35f5f5fbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another movie gross most in 2024? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will someone else win the 2024 Democrati... | yes | 0.458595 | will-kamala-harris-concede-by-midnight | Will Kamala Harris concede by midnight? | 63,933,679 | 64,022,031 |
165e591fde574a0e11c0befd7c44b7209d18f5ce | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x8e1f7e23956e34457789ba226232935b3b7ff99882de7fd637d48c04dc28c85a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gavin Newsom ... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-in-speech-after-election-is-called | Will Kamala say "believe in freedom" in her speech after the election is called? | 63,934,577 | 63,982,962 |
0fb358f09a5f9be99d1d30e70309bffe93a8cf12 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xdd2f4921a562fc4d18c0bde327d2a9315352a3ba4137656112b9b1770fd1f2a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 0 | nevada-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? | 63,940,906 | 63,940,906 |
00ed50bf472e189746df2a9d0e7cc062b84567c2 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xdb832640a99f81c1018ca4a6e15c80df82b2291dd2aceef6c8ce6bf80c3db127 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 0 | will-kamala-harris-concede-by-noon-wednesday | Kamala publicly concedes by noon Wednesday? | 63,942,017 | 63,942,017 |
34cf46418c63235e86587e6d7ec67596b39e6de2 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x883f6ac0468d3449161454db37acb951bad5b55a7752bc2dd007e40356cee353 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-gold-medals | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.7... | yes | 1 | texas-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,951,547 | 63,951,547 |
ad9ba6fb4d6a1071dcaa938927fef4973fbecdb1 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x8e1b3055f4b1439636252c5b8a32387234b48403d95abe1ad23fe59c6181b067 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-gold-medals | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.746834120708212e-05
2. Question: Will Japan win the 3rd most gold medals? | Event: 3rd-most-gold-medals-at-paris-olympics-1 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | iowa-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election? | 63,961,303 | 63,961,303 |
83e4cfeaeb0fe5072173fbe62496937b3e0976dd | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x452924b4281f66ad9bcac97e642b422bb0581a7ff0cfd923e8a1e378e4ab8592 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Japan win the 3rd most gold medals? | Event: 3rd-most-gold-medals-at-paris-olympics-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross... | yes | 0.758242 | what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Will the AP call the election on November 9? | 63,966,018 | 63,966,018 |
b0ab491a717ad3fb2dc6626468e709d3d42541f3 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x9169f39504cd7137f7ebef81306d093dc19ee0f94a811127b166bed6e50bdbbe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross less than $75m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Will the AP call the election on November 10? | 63,966,018 | 63,966,018 |
29fec1fbdfe718003b8fe005e34d67a5b6bdffd4 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xcbd164a4d326bd18054ab1d28740a0ec5abcdd7fa77c03a2df39199a2be3600c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross less than $75m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30? | Event: confirmed-case-of-monkeypox-in-us-by-sept-30 | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 1 | what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Will the AP call the election on November 11? | 63,966,018 | 63,966,018 |
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