sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
eaea21d01aabcd6626ba03f1b522a66f1dd5d14a | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xd3ef230e5b67a6ef488fb69c58b16644beed3c09a4716cbd2f8cd52a62c71e92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30? | Event: confirmed-case-of-monkeypox-in-us-by-sept-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.489656949352179
2. Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire before October? | Event: israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.783441976830137... | yes | 1 | what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Will the AP call the election on November 6? | 63,966,018 | 63,966,018 |
525db3808698cdeec5550e49fe1cf8dd77219565 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xf94993ec164d33b391280b2bd4162205d4817a5ba1fb628138c5b2f1f5d7270f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire before October? | Event: israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.783441976830137
2. Question: Will Taylor Swift speak at the DNC? | Event: who-will-speak-at-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.665473263231852e-05
3. Question: Will 'Beetlejui... | yes | 1 | what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Will the AP call the election on November 8? | 63,966,018 | 63,966,018 |
b59660cd17506f8cffcf0d0c489959688606ea89 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x23ebd642c181d2cb5bacd95b658e94ae4019df7885fb40436e79b52a1912eca4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Taylor Swift speak at the DNC? | Event: who-will-speak-at-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.665473263231852e-05
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $95m and $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | yes | 1 | how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Will Trump win 3 swing states? | 63,982,962 | 63,982,962 |
8b2fc513fb1019d741c70d2f7e91462c65ce64bc | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x3120827dc12167d09fd9f08233e2b540054a2ed90aad65c023bc1da9d38b29d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $95m and $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Another Biden beach day in September? | Event: another-biden-beach-day-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,982,962 | 63,982,962 |
7c8c0820ee13c4f2beb920f1d2f2f2be64a92fbe | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x5f6a8f66b67d4322eee9a5b642ceb4d3f167bebcd900c32827a52e8740ed7e68 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Another Biden beach day in September? | Event: another-biden-beach-day-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0002203878622784542
2. Question: Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31? | Event: nasrallah-remains-leader-of-hezbollah-through-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.... | yes | 1 | how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Will Trump win 2 swing states? | 63,982,962 | 63,982,962 |
ef10cf988b39f18279aabec17f38ea291b74c47a | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xafde9e890a2db339b6515cd75c2d09574dcaf731b483a1ef6ea0a3abc5ec8abd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31? | Event: nasrallah-remains-leader-of-hezbollah-through-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Israeli forces enter Lebanon before November? | Event: israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-before-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? | 63,982,962 | 63,982,962 |
8759176f3b550925615ef08f7e757aca0c142073 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xb92f22143e7b48609a82573fa8197dc73683a15acb467b0f51ee63da7e3f520b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israeli forces enter Lebanon before November? | Event: israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-before-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will there be less than 11 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Choice:... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,982,962 | 63,982,962 |
cc27da45c58313f37534e671f5da3e4d592ad9f8 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x02bc0bbff054877a08cdc4f9ccf4e7606804bc05c27f5faccf26c6e1666a5558 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be less than 11 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Lana Del Rey pregnant in 2024? | Event: lana-del-rey-pregnant-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.50471836963... | yes | 1 | pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | 64,022,031 | 64,022,031 |
feaa1a4a831759c3bf56a385cdbf39c6f83fc569 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x1092f6af37037a3539947b2052eeffff3608e2b68926340cab146369d3d2aac9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Lana Del Rey pregnant in 2024? | Event: lana-del-rey-pregnant-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5047183696330643
2. Question: Will there be more than 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | michigan-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? | 64,022,031 | 64,022,031 |
d05135e8b900bfea2314009a12827482e60e60b3 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xe2a9262148bec59cde1581988431069d083faeee3361779c4b0aa265138f7c44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be more than 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2344014406289262
2. Question: Will Sinwar leave Gaza by October 31? | Event: will-sinwar-leave-gaza-by-october-31 | Choice: ... | yes | 0.904762 | georgia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Georgia Presidential Election? | 64,022,031 | 64,022,031 |
f2ade317ab7e37c0b8c0f5d25a5787a1c60a36a6 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x51ac44a5178a2bb04e9bcb6f134b034fb63b938fd49c465f0f0460af136677d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sinwar leave Gaza by October 31? | Event: will-sinwar-leave-gaza-by-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.7367756189389307e-05
2. Question: Israel military response against Iran today? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-tomorrow-oct-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0062892931... | yes | 1 | how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Will Trump win 5 swing states? | 64,087,206 | 64,087,206 |
8379e0d13fb524a0630c6853b95ae91ed22157b9 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x23df7c359c5641fceed71bd62edda6a4a4997b66566d137a5e639434c8444b2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel military response against Iran today? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-tomorrow-oct-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.006289293176693734
2. Question: Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December? | Event: will-ruusia-capture-chasiv-yar-before-december | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 | 64,107,475 | 64,107,475 |
5b22183f58ae0745fd0d116453a9e47eda0d514a | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x2a9c818392b7e213bebe13ef773d2ecfe637221dbe04c4b9f47a3ce890f1cf4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December? | Event: will-ruusia-capture-chasiv-yar-before-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 7.044503714713298e-05
2. Question: Will Pain Gaming win IEM Rio 2024? | Event: cs2-iem-rio-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6116504854368932
3. Question... | yes | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64 | 64,107,475 | 64,107,475 |
854b29d7f1c004b7469d94d29812e1c016b81837 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x475e0fd32b211c0cfe6755638efceba2373d01a7224c7750f77f978db104f639 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pain Gaming win IEM Rio 2024? | Event: cs2-iem-rio-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6116504854368932
2. Question: KSI's "Thick Of It" debuts on Billboard hot 100? | Event: ksis-thick-of-it-debuts-on-billboard-hot-100 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.8240315533285824e-05
3. Question... | yes | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154 | 64,107,475 | 64,107,475 |
4de0b3b92377d940bfeb296e1031a550b466ded1 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x007915eaf3a6c3c7f2c28a3f4984e257b69489defc4e2db834a1418ad9b433f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: KSI's "Thick Of It" debuts on Billboard hot 100? | Event: ksis-thick-of-it-debuts-on-billboard-hot-100 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.8240315533285824e-05
2. Question: Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record? | Event: will-speed-break-the-24h-backflip-world-record | Choice: no | Confide... | yes | 1 | balance-of-power-2024-election | 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R House | 64,272,573 | 64,272,573 |
d1880611bd6f5208efa2d02f102060561d85c6c9 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x3353f0005d273aa63e233aa107e71cf8d95744c6209e8e0c857d6555768190f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record? | Event: will-speed-break-the-24h-backflip-world-record | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.99288075152... | yes | 1 | balance-of-power-2024-election | 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, R House | 64,272,573 | 64,272,573 |
a17e56e446edbefeb776c7a953d1f8b96ebea29b | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xbb958c943dab682a60d421effb917b6b66760905c23e58efd22699f278185444 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9928807515280519
2. Question: Will there be between 11 and 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hu... | yes | 1 | balance-of-power-2024-election | 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, R House | 64,272,573 | 64,272,573 |
4c6bf5621b14816fdbe22c2dcd934427173c2ee2 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xf4640cd41c414f694cd33e049e0c58092eea15bb7e463af0124695e46442742d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be between 11 and 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.999967301589067
2. Question: Will there be 175,000,000 or more votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: t... | yes | 1 | balance-of-power-2024-election | 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D House | 64,272,573 | 64,272,573 |
e02df076748cb23f6bdc472b4cddfa55eb788d36 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x6cccd68bbbaa6769d5fac2b2d1ac698651a29eff072367db6a05f45b6f4d1522 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be 175,000,000 or more votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2024-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee? | Event: tim-walz-out-as-democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-labor-secretary | Will Trump nominate Patrick Pizzella for Labor Secretary? | 64,628,103 | 64,628,103 |
2b66f0e43b6fc74367e973365904f4c478116ae6 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x6c4193001812cc2bf0dec73f4e9fd03969ec56f792a4b84567b1ff8a0793b387 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee? | Event: tim-walz-out-as-democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala say "Promise of America" in her speech after the election is called? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-in-speech-after-election-is-called | Choice: no... | yes | 1 | wicked-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Wicked' gross between $115-125m opening weekend? | 64,742,013 | 64,742,013 |
a6e8fa2504866ac359a799c824ee02aed0ec8ead | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x912c579535979774287bbc1451914a65098c59c30df652875cd38a4e443c885e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "Promise of America" in her speech after the election is called? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-in-speech-after-election-is-called | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris concede by midnight? | Event: will-kamala-harris-concede-by-midnight | Choice: yes |... | no | 0.00005 | will-moana-2-gross-over-200m-on-5-day-opening-weekend | Will 'Moana 2' gross over $200m on 5-day opening? | 64,807,826 | 64,807,826 |
37da2737998cf955a0f03dc3be397c5afc9f63c4 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x87ebcc9f6660a5b9613650c3d91bae01f4503b11eb61a782b993bbc3a5d41b04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris concede by midnight? | Event: will-kamala-harris-concede-by-midnight | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.45859480743201675
2. Question: Will Kamala say "believe in freedom" in her speech after the election is called? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-in-speech-after-election-is-calle... | no | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? | 64,819,863 | 64,819,863 |
e080d7f830699574bd5f78aff82e122d29474192 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x7031748aefe3690ffe97368b758a5989ce115b239a28b2219c40dc1c09018855 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "believe in freedom" in her speech after the election is called? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-in-speech-after-election-is-called | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? | Event: nevada-presidential-election-winner | Choi... | yes | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-4 | Will Gukesh Dommaraju win game 4 of the World Chess Championship? | 64,889,749 | 64,889,749 |
4253659efebc77a48497b6ee9a1ffed00c5583e9 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x4dc0b31ec93d090fbdad172f37eb948391be0b46387986b10da34dc47fad4224 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? | Event: nevada-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Kamala publicly concedes by noon Wednesday? | Event: will-kamala-harris-concede-by-noon-wednesday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will a Rep... | yes | 0.5 | world-chess-championship-game-5 | Will Gukesh Dommaraju win game 5 of the World Chess Championship? | 64,943,012 | 64,943,012 |
f7027659ba95f84a1be18f5763a3c5f526bd4654 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xbe912f93652b8c6496adb45adcfca93f4dc0fd881e7b7c1fb364c627654ffd60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala publicly concedes by noon Wednesday? | Event: will-kamala-harris-concede-by-noon-wednesday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: texas-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-5 | Will Ding Liren win game 5 of the World Chess Championship? | 64,943,012 | 64,943,012 |
d68437c4e9acd17153d11ec3a5ed471f38012c55 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xd55ac89ca73445caf48c4dbafeed202afd80f674218264766971d97c24adf5db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: texas-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election? | Event: iowa-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-5 | Will game 5 of the World Chess Championship be a draw? | 64,943,012 | 64,943,012 |
974d73f6011feea4bce840181ef8ff3a832c800f | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x18038fc4f2469a50c2804556fb923e085715cb3191680f1fd586386b03396be9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election? | Event: iowa-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the AP call the election on November 9? | Event: what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7582417582417582
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | moana-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of less than 60? | 65,011,371 | 65,011,371 |
bef137c31cf4c4b73b74a6fc471cfff5df882b26 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xaf83eedb3deb4910b5840560ed54569186f2d9447d14a7f4f696c540120e4c22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the AP call the election on November 9? | Event: what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7582417582417582
2. Question: Will the AP call the election on November 10? | Event: what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-6 | Will Ding Liren win game 6 of the World Chess Championship? | 65,011,371 | 65,011,371 |
e5deb85c287f5d5d3f057f055f89aece1bdb00dc | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xdb3d97ada2399f53dc90e126509e781e4722c0e2ae10cc9f83eeb6eb7cc5ce41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the AP call the election on November 10? | Event: what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the AP call the election on November 11? | Event: what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the AP cal... | yes | 1 | moana-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 60-69? | 65,011,371 | 65,011,371 |
d0318352ddd369b216b248362720f3879f111874 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x0ccef8093796c790e9df904b93b0280c6e05fa09a7e7e928eb8079867aaae5ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the AP call the election on November 11? | Event: what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the AP call the election on November 6? | Event: what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the AP call... | yes | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-11 | Will Game 11 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? | 65,246,903 | 65,246,903 |
01eeec4072b95b6a35fe3b717b1cb4a87e97786e | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x32c42119677d5fe447510b6e5dfe7273edf6ed38754d827d2594181b97f6330e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the AP call the election on November 6? | Event: what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the AP call the election on November 8? | Event: what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump win 3 ... | yes | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-11 | Will Ding Liren win Game 11 of the World Chess Championship? | 65,246,903 | 65,246,903 |
60bb22ac86f60de1a82bfebb548166eec8e9877b | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x66427fc0c8cb1eb3bbf05f8e6417be0a7c0d751dde3f5883d84f2207d01787ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the AP call the election on November 8? | Event: what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win 3 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elizabeth Warren win the 202... | no | 0.6832 | world-chess-championship-game-11 | Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 11 of the World Chess Championship? | 65,246,903 | 65,246,903 |
3d0fe3d7ad926490b81542d937bcf2674520cd0d | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x467e553e6fb7747625b95a6df808bb1d7e4f5f0e1162ddd962319233d97d5829 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump win 3 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump win 2 swing... | no | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-12 | Will Ding Liren win Game 12 of the World Chess Championship? | 65,281,285 | 65,281,285 |
80f3767d3a0cc69a7537ae263199265e84e99817 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xa9aa3b21f8dff26c546cd89e19576f1419fec84049424f2051f14eb995e1f2ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win 2 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Democrat win th... | no | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-12 | Will Game 12 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? | 65,281,285 | 65,281,285 |
2e796a5586f29208e9860730962c8d8a6ef8ceec | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x0efe5b8d0c680f24a7ce71379e8f5bf58318018649bc07722f6656f834d58298 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump win 2 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will any other Demo... | no | 0.000004 | will-biden-issue-more-pardons-than-trump | Will Biden issue more pardons than Trump? | 65,522,996 | 65,522,996 |
bb32a3b410c9a771238138bceb8e5ffc29848e3f | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x1671be06cac91668fb1eb1d508401125277c2696a16497caedd19e30fd49150d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2024-presidential-election | Will there be 160,000,000-165,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election? | 65,661,370 | 65,661,370 |
83160d8aeddc6376b479580cac614a712567e909 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x1e7a237f7852453254324f57cd5b74288e116b642ce686250c84c6aba7bc368f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2024-presidential-election | Will there be 155,000,000-160,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election? | 65,661,370 | 65,661,370 |
c9d4755f195ddabef92042e3f3651fe6bb352f9e | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x7e259b91e51dd0633d720f8bc013b90e432c51a933d28c7a4365feb1052a0197 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2024-presidential-election | Will there be 165,000,000-170,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election? | 65,661,370 | 65,661,370 |
2537c63cc02d58fe3ac081974e9a6bd3e041be64 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xb3c778bc132209002f9fca88f6fa5628cc49dc4f5a5c8e5fd789c44ee6638ad1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9047621995455728
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2024-presidential-election | Will there be 150,000,000-155,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election? | 65,661,370 | 65,661,370 |
63f82c623736c62f24ab2c4c2d9796b7bd8fceff | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xdb337d0ed13628638d0b3491e58823aadeeae46d81a105b024f565d187dc74ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9047621995455728
2. Question: Will Trump win 5 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: 2024 president... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2024-presidential-election | Will there be 170,000,000-175,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election? | 65,661,370 | 65,661,370 |
856cfa4d99e412dbdd4c426c8d50e65d5b0db5cc | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xf0ef01f6dcd75e81e01b3fe0aef153f14b744b2bc1382a8decc9d3a108ed3b56 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump win 5 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2024-presidential-election | Will there be 145,000,000-150,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election? | 65,661,370 | 65,661,370 |
b221440e7a59082f736307e3e331531e3a700100 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xc908e26576854a5959929655f133899fc425f57ac89ab741a103c9e1b554812c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-... | no | 0.059156 | fide-world-rapid-chess-champion | Will Magnus Carlsen win the World Rapid Championship? | 65,972,978 | 65,972,978 |
7a4b09f3762792db0f7065300f7e2f2d1eb1f232 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x31f44648301a3ba591cef8e9de397bfdf74c64de40dee9458b07dbc7629a6088 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-elect... | yes | 1 | fide-world-blitz-champion | Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | 66,078,879 | 66,078,879 |
f4fdfdd9a702f09028372343922af683ff2ce0cc | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xb7c1c4d39ff70ccf613cd7fa5d1cb25f438aaeed6c5cf09e220011bb75215cbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R House | Event: balance-of-power-2024-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | monkey-pox-pandemic-in-2024 | Monkeypox pandemic in 2024? | 66,175,193 | 66,175,193 |
26fae22e5bee3e1fec834031d670fd69ffc80fe3 | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0x1ab07117f9f698f28490f57754d6fe5309374230c95867a7eba572892a11d710 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R House | Event: balance-of-power-2024-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, R House | Event: balance-of-power-2024-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: 2024 Balance of Power: R ... | no | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? | 66,279,219 | 66,279,219 |
cb8bf567ea254450a6a310d508595e6b9ac1e88b | 0x32ac6a738caaf3bb647e19fab4aa3b367840d62c | 0xcb422d388b8aec3353b2566ccd388885de3bc539240aa3bc23b050ec7ebae52b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, R House | Event: balance-of-power-2024-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, R House | Event: balance-of-power-2024-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: 2024 Balance of Power: D ... | yes | 0.000028 | hailey-bieber-pregnant-in-2025 | Hailey Bieber pregnant in 2025? | 66,422,852 | 66,622,961 |
75d43273d7a3e901cf76722cb3947f2bcc4fa9a9 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0xd1e72aedfdb18839ca6532e2dbc95a89ecb93247298f1953d1d4c02e7889b1f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?
Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | 78,582,932 | 78,582,932 |
950e027ddc39761dd7601fd9174b65532c77dde1 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0xbaaa39bbec96c4304a8fc933378632e335107e9bcf60c7d621ff0cb5c5fc7f42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05?
Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the ... | yes | 1 | ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | 78,655,535 | 78,655,535 |
621e2d822f7c80105d78a7870834157aaa74e038 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0x4f471089a748dec64d59c9ae95d7120cb432e1118bc67e7277c623f7e8ea3588 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Wil... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-6 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98,000 on November 6? | 78,699,174 | 78,699,174 |
45d2ac32a18dbbaf160f09591120f79419f558c2 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0x4cdf178a5a664743b006fcc97eb4c99155c789170f1f1dccb150e773cddc35f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-8 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November 8? | 78,764,438 | 78,764,438 |
16a8e46af9bcd8c25aec02b5040a190e643042d5 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0xf2989d220ae767b59973b00546c856ca43c873a3a934b5e0889f999a2764ff98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-10 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98,000 on November 10? | 78,870,384 | 78,870,384 |
94d1991245133bd1e505a3af485ab2f86487d678 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0x296628e131c377a81cde8bc1004d183bcf647f92d99c00ed4b4d59048f45704c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November 12? | 78,957,215 | 78,957,215 |
9f488cdbc6bcb25f6218a287105e7d6eecedfcf0 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0xb42d9ac918cd081c65ec982f6a3ead0763e1f1334de2d8d6127fee9d7418c3c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | yes | 1 | uef-nor-est-2025-11-13 | Will Norway win on 2025-11-13? | 79,000,623 | 79,000,623 |
cd61a7224a43b9d354837b0ee7fd202833568422 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0x45a3883121261dec24f63ac4cdf545c40d2c6fc87113f518ccb66ef86b2a839c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 1 | uef-hrv-far-2025-11-14 | Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-11-14? | 79,044,668 | 79,044,668 |
10cc4f59079c09d4c4f1d9f059d7cda72385d037 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0x6983c9d5ddda9ea22bf9e2eb12a94cc03d7ebf759a57516f66c80c1c1db3ffab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 1 | uef-den-bel1-2025-11-15 | Will Belarus win on 2025-11-15? | 79,089,637 | 79,089,637 |
b0245cda63dd8887f391fb1e934d95633f050209 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0x90e91ffe9d0e01d78c83f7222989c0f233b832253bcff8c086f68405ebb012ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $92,000 on November 15? | 79,089,661 | 79,089,661 |
9b87c7fa3b688768f7ff127afb8a083a2141bbf2 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0x43944939e7b1c83671b721c4d984c883f893a024937c9b3fe615ab3e1a928e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 1 | uef-aze-fra-2025-11-16 | Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-11-16? | 79,129,452 | 79,129,452 |
c97e5913ab38622ce8510f5b7a2f8c10d4b0206c | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0x797e38eb6ded6deb2cfbba99769d29fed3c2511d5e7ed343d08772f66bc72698 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 1 | uef-rom-smr-2025-11-18 | Will San Marino win on 2025-11-18? | 79,215,875 | 79,215,875 |
7dd6d6fff4b4d0b82fc5f0ac9ffff4bc1bf80c37 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0x41a29713ae870237004399899686077d9dcaaad4a0e697e5c41236ce60765e09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 1 | uef-bel-lie-2025-11-18 | Will Liechtenstein win on 2025-11-18? | 79,215,903 | 79,215,903 |
096cdf205b467e5a8569e81918d72ebb8998dca5 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0x7cf0f34759e339e454ede0f2232bf93b792d259f95d2de17f0b6061c9ca0c3f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 1 | epl-bur-che-2025-11-22 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,364,388 | 79,364,388 |
6731d96cbb3bde000a469acc6f77328ae4e9cb6f | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0xac5e2c0bc09508a6fb466c06241e28810f65e585a3089a8ecefbcfd35ebf8345 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 1 | tur-gal-gen-2025-11-22 | Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2025-11-22? | 79,390,473 | 79,390,473 |
e53221da477ea5f787c51a946bfccb2483166832 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0x5ac6b31a26c7de9a178e73d517ac1d1b26b19a78e18cc08930723fd8102aa844 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 1 | rus-nov-zen-2025-11-23 | Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod win on 2025-11-23? | 79,409,670 | 79,409,670 |
30c11b6b1777f75a2441a359117816815e46d041 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0x68a0235e9f1fcf9323151495e0b8a72cbef07c196494ad765413edbcc66cc95a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | yes | 1 | den-vib-vbk-2025-11-23 | Will Viborg FF win on 2025-11-23? | 79,409,670 | 79,409,670 |
39ba3094169c0423e588e700082eafa9f4513875 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0x6f79238966a87980dc5c2d85278ff864fd25d2f3a220f0a4c11480ffed346dc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 1 | elc-swe-she-2025-11-23 | Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2025-11-23? | 79,409,670 | 79,409,670 |
a6a9247a4b9be26ae83dfba7f211fbd491491739 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0xbb4fbf894cb08c687a812922cda8fcc87e274c8d0c9e43ec0c5b7a36345a7f58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | yes | 1 | nor-ham-fkh-2025-11-23 | Will Hamarkameratene win on 2025-11-23? | 79,409,670 | 79,409,670 |
5b8922ada6fab9b18ec202eb741a26e9a9b6cab8 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0x514e5df3c8d10970c3aae87e6de92121987d5a327373bcb6096775e30835f551 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 1 | spl-nsr-kha-2025-11-23 | Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2025-11-23? | 79,431,847 | 79,431,847 |
1db3b1bfaf0e8baf880be84169e906f3b0835ad6 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0x09f93b066ba31418501f4efc444386daab58f7c6f602bb315836cd9f5054550e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-november-24 | Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on November 24? | 79,455,457 | 79,455,457 |
738e6f603a9289ef806f2c19b9491c441154cf60 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0xa13d50e4e1a2e3356bb277b9c7c414f22fd67e729ca94c987484ec97ee2a3d53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on November 25? | 79,499,677 | 79,499,677 |
8f0225f497fddb97a0e7f12fd6fd6ac56c74c564 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0x9c138040b373588edc85c2e02c2e5a8cfe3ca23af88e784a62a9ee403080be17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-26 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on November 26? | 79,541,645 | 79,541,645 |
5bbfd5a2d5a4bb95a4a085a7a01a019e8e4f2e1d | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0x2496243a6c242c1972bc2c1d9a006c8a087b6d3d6cdf00861bacc33f9ebdcd2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 1 | col-az-she1-2025-11-27 | Will Shelbourne FC win on 2025-11-27? | 79,603,956 | 79,603,956 |
3da1b2aa17c683574ef79d84a0a6b8de2167a069 | 0x32ed1015ee881fb4050e4d132b8e4850d85c4391 | 0x351fe723038e7f1fa84ba35dfba2ecdde864f269ef1d1c1ffc094bed8481cbf1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 1 | bun-bay-pau-2025-11-29 | Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-11-29? | 79,671,267 | 79,671,267 |
7aed43ab76d28495313ed2e071211c04792167b6 | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0x31ffd9aab0ebb5be9ec63c29f42bbe1d6c7a43c246612ce3e42febc8658e242a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?
Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | 71,351,758 | 71,351,758 |
e2850d4c909cae34dcbdf93d5ca3c85f8be82620 | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0xaf51603d78545c838490bafe178ee9ff4c23d0c2161f15e0e530d3735229ad3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
Event: romania-presidential-election-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target ... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | 71,698,151 | 71,698,151 |
8ad2dbc3f8831753675a0681088de23eb6ca4a54 | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0x68b7dcba5b46092b51d4afac54458a62ed52335f4ab3b4304fcbd3d634ecd3a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the p... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 23? | 71,899,884 | 71,899,884 |
391a9e4f686b342dffe069ec0fb7a1cc8e20a392 | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0x80bd6c8d13efeab75dc5522adbf0d0b53cdb6de17ba0fc277f91304dfd49453b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-may-24-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 24 at 5 PM ET? | 71,937,770 | 71,937,770 |
b179d1c7f1acb928d2649e23b6ceb6f1a4d588f0 | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0x5e2f43367df18187e8448d313f654f3566c8dbed731998f9bda81660854ba8e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-may-25-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 25 at 5 PM ET? | 71,979,786 | 71,979,786 |
62f9986a6de824f34a69adbbfd1d86e9adde1c4a | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0x51d27c9f52414cdd27089e2d08292561e6ce6390faecb6121436581d58c3c49c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-may-27-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on May 27 at 5 PM ET? | 72,061,332 | 72,061,332 |
5f93b351a35d7682e8d61e408c3ff75d27f80292 | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0x53eed99717a7e77bc67b63587337f9d0252d3ee0fcdada4a67bbca4a5cbe644d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-may-28-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on May 28 at 5 PM ET? | 72,100,276 | 72,100,276 |
8812e544ae3bca6fd7580522ffd349432d9f6cab | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0x588b0ed71307416d2838b1c46928663c9bb2ece2093ba5d32e8f99bc70a6441c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-may-30-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | 72,182,022 | 72,182,022 |
c81a44efadd17613dc0e6dafd39e4dca06704231 | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0x4c7bed44ff1e71666f99cafe360423e175d7a8cc41c89628de5c7b89abb1e4fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | no | 0.999884 | ethereum-price-may-30-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | 72,183,627 | 72,183,627 |
bf74ee22b7487f442e3e96938b6865f6d3705d95 | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0xfd3c6abeb89869141c9314ddbecae3f914f984e092a0dded3266d5444c67a671 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-may-31-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | 72,221,188 | 72,221,188 |
14fef81d86850b65bdb9944473df701a9d866deb | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0xa2f08ff2c71269eb40d74ad5208c950923fb9ac2e5bff2521cff9f390fb9d603 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-june-2-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 2 at 5 PM ET? | 72,301,424 | 72,301,424 |
f737ca1cb148ed40ed3e7d7727eaee7551a2ef8f | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0x2d38300d59bd23140f83338808848561a036eedf35f49f191eb60becd35f080f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | 72,342,800 | 72,342,800 |
0be6d525f0d71676dd03b5467a0b1614c3411337 | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0xf1cf12745c4fd6c1a1793c9238f0d2d1678eac71ed29f6ee6112b2bb6e2c91d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-june-4-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 4 at 5 PM ET? | 72,382,886 | 72,382,886 |
8b647bdbd6803f5cd4596aabb58b7cb98e5c123a | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0xba2f2094a1132005492ba16601933905bba116158f690bf8e623457eb541722f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-june-5-5pm-et-455 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 5 at 5 PM ET? | 72,428,452 | 72,428,452 |
c948f90a1ef1409b5ca2d4c336d0ac6fa1187c09 | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0x050a9471e88df1131eb222803ecc9249ab5b8b990fbe7a8e9f0694e1c6994dcc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-june-16-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | 72,873,444 | 72,873,444 |
3ab10ba95ba2c01bc1681df4dc780db31504d226 | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0x73ebe48e47a87fb1186588d65ee0498767d22b090478ef45b9266999d9873515 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-june-20 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 20? | 73,019,133 | 73,019,133 |
27ef3615ccf2885a53dd6a47d8e9c49b355b7aec | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0x43d6dcbd00bc769803687637c117be72f1eac1d9e5f8e1e719fe5789d3590531 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-june-22-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on June 22 at 5PM ET? | 73,113,612 | 73,113,612 |
be6b0498f4ad8b322ffa4254fae25bc0b82bb815 | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0x4df3ae4e9e799a837d118b5ede3418f23d2fa1adcc2c48a141be2e293f5fdc35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-june-24 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on June 24? | 73,198,612 | 73,198,612 |
17418481cdaa8cee66826b2611e021457b569d69 | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0x852989d58bcc86fafa54656ad444ad3091d6ce0dd648a0f5d7bbdad4cf4e4220 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-june-24 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2200 and $2300 on June 24? | 73,198,614 | 73,198,614 |
c27e3569626f8f6659d65f5e36d5887c1734ac81 | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0x5ab3289114296f5390ff2d6f0fb73a29ee936c5d64e8949704d2d1f8a3af62f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-june-25-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on June 25 at 5PM ET? | 73,244,969 | 73,244,969 |
2727393e2d0ea03f3561f9bc30f49fd928d794f8 | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0x5db344fe4fedc6998bd7c503ae46b180a21d2dbb82dc67735daf48ed1489df9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-june-28-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on June 28 at 5PM ET? | 73,357,907 | 73,357,907 |
8f8771a1d55fc16ad3777045d9b71b119ff841aa | 0x32f8f473d69f30fe8fd9ace93173678f62f55a08 | 0xc937ff428041f1cf3dbd736641b064ca24e329ee0f86f90f94ddfc54c99c137a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-june-29-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on June 29 at 5PM ET? | 73,412,623 | 73,412,623 |
4f4dc9ba5b611277b5e55692335795545c1a681a | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x6cf8b2ebe77711ab5c32fac330b8d493640cf25d278fa98bf65ddcfcb891171e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?
Event: champions-league-winner-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 0.856952 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | 72,211,303 | 72,211,310 |
75934a8ed1d70fcd3df10009117c4caf91923414 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x7beceb04f7b1d4f0dde80b58c6f43c23b8ad54b21c693e172c974f480b46483c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
Target market:
Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League?
Event: champions-league-winner-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence ... | no | 0.286321 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | 72,211,307 | 72,211,307 |
9d076f746badbf73cf578e99385ae4eb1ca2222c | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xd76d5172fffaaf2b0d0db29bd944a462654a20a4a327860e4e0438d13b6a4bee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
Target... | yes | 1 | nba-eastern-conference-champion | Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? | 72,224,018 | 72,224,018 |
50a4ddfc838a7750ba1e276846c4bf3eba9ffcab | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xf82e9618a666b872658aecbb8efb80b7abf9bd3ea13866980d47da198241bf50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | nba-2025-finals-matchup | Will Pacers vs. Thunder be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? | 72,224,833 | 72,224,833 |
25992000f279e1976749aa6f32897e4782f37b79 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x9de2e72bc19580368d70693ffff8dbe2f6c68c24a43ff816057d6eed04e0bd1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | yes | 0.537808 | who-will-reach-the-quarterfinals-of-french-open | Will Alexander Zverev reach the quarterfinals of the French Open? | 72,271,559 | 72,271,559 |
61760fcdb705f5a1045be2be81a11a3925e82a9e | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xb8f7ce6b0e1638060d8d44814c471017d04b3f276636e7f396786263e72ad2b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | griekspoor | 0.537808 | french-open-zverev-vs-griekspoor | French Open: Zverev vs. Griekspoor | 72,271,561 | 72,271,561 |
82a735fdf641a5f2a67bf53d597c7f3393d973a2 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x671f10325c27844c9ff68f617d54d8820b70c11faf8cdcea0035341e995e8506 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | gauff | 0 | french-open-sabalenka-vs-gauff | French Open: Sabalenka vs. Gauff | 72,476,448 | 72,507,796 |
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