sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
99ee322f984104051e63533f7d2bb33e6469d38c | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x7e0d618b8eabba7281684ee1144879d8258d78367fa858f23f1f104e015e62d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on November 6? | 78,698,293 | 78,698,293 |
01db7e88450d5eb6cdd57f84408e05efa63c9795 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x9fdbe803e39ccb18cea7d9708bf2935a43eab591b24b860388886e0b07634b6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or below on November 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-3 |... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November 6? | 78,698,293 | 78,698,293 |
1b3e2e1037a8763583caeabd631a491477710676 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x24cfeccf0f217f3b3707e122572666b9a5cd762b46c4ebe81ddcfa6faa646be6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or below on November 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-6 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 6? | 78,702,422 | 78,702,422 |
f93597acbde35da921214b9f9e76ebdb9ab94e13 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xa8e89ff9844763e3cf4e56498baeb18c46be6f55fde41eee358c4434b6c32819 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-novembe... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-7 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on November 7? | 78,748,625 | 78,748,625 |
5a38a30d620201613a553cd0117be1af604756ca | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x23887ee60ff29e7395c2d729a4bde1d000407ce7d93849cc3405cb46283d2218 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-7 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 7? | 78,750,938 | 78,750,938 |
40db85a7c63ac069052ba36ca97c3408f8168ff1 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x6bfd7ec44fc948c0f0c34fbff20863c5763cd2f792a492d398c6f26de8975c9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-3... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on November 5? | 78,750,938 | 78,750,938 |
3fc5bfadc14f5b6b45898b025be71879d1df0810 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x9e33147c913790830449e70c73207b4830c460e7ae17348c3a5ea8070e26b765 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on November 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-novembe... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-7 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 7? | 78,750,938 | 78,750,938 |
c9692fd8290b469995a416b968013e936873932b | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xc69296904db04156655d14a9184a7bdfc09382a328f840af70f4bb0559729ae3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on November 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 6? | 78,750,938 | 78,750,938 |
e2893d7163f82dc1730072d7e73ffb653beb6187 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xdd504fe69e68bb30c46895201f6fda40874cd87affb6574b1e78f7999e10c71f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on November 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-3... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-5 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 5? | 78,750,938 | 78,750,938 |
a7bf3c53126714de23c9cd62185afd291509ba76 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x86805fd5972328c3b4da432eeb01026d1c0cc56ab10c625d57e7fa6409109d1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on November 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-novembe... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-5 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on November 5? | 78,750,940 | 78,750,940 |
527e72f4e2917e3b983f324c5a056285d20c0de8 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x9067d5720ff4638cb544f59be5265754a6838857183254b6332ff8e80ee47004 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on November 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-7 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57-58°F on November 7? | 78,750,940 | 78,750,940 |
a85ae317422424b66314a3fcffd1f85418c15bd6 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x3aefad3f30e0e8df9107933182bae0fbb92a4bb9a7a69181a170aa49c7941d3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on November 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-11 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on November 11? | 78,930,829 | 78,930,829 |
71c9885140980cd847f207d42ac255ba75dbf4eb | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x2c85e5995b6d68298c9d02da80655bbf96e9439c8a98ffef3c754a03e4ace345 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on November 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-novemb... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-11 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on November 11? | 78,938,790 | 78,938,790 |
e35ae63ac34e8ded8a6946d4757a451ebc5cab48 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x5363a7b7a01dbe3e0fcf69806ca3a71e3080cbacd4dd3ae4e8de76d87f33e2c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on November 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will “The Diplomat: Season 3” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-to... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-8 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 63-64°F on November 8? | 78,938,792 | 78,938,792 |
22412179c2d6b2e8fba28a32d65469b2c7229c2e | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x389a63db34601ff94c9996b40726f8f903416fbfafb3af6518ad3984294d588c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will “The Diplomat: Season 3” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-745 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will “Selling Sunset: Season 9” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025) | ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-16 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on November 16? | 79,135,148 | 79,135,148 |
fd700956895fd995a682834a4fe096c6f6c0c617 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xa0f77ace9e60a113159ed698075e493d4c7620dd5ade28d455b208b1dbc4e158 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will “Selling Sunset: Season 9” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-745 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-o... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-16 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on November 16? | 79,135,148 | 79,135,148 |
9ecd078899e15fbffb57183d4b9e3e4256dc7fb7 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xc0a02e96938e3019bf1d2cbad52800185d23a1277acda2aee25084a992eca6d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will “Bad Influencer” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netfli... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-16 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57-58°F on November 16? | 79,135,148 | 79,135,148 |
c294de3e48d9aae287b21db12059afe65cb8178c | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x8572840f742f73810e3145625e741affdf9b59d419cc0582cb9bb29f825d06a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will “Bad Influencer” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-745 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 5? | Event: highest-temperature-... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-17 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on November 17? | 79,176,302 | 79,176,302 |
adc244292532cd8ff5e9479f346c1da650ff6cdc | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x539c2a4d9fb65909acb165c0c244c38cae78ead492c3806ad2ebb416788c60ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will “Boots” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on November 18? | 79,216,397 | 79,216,397 |
2efe1f3a4b823003b891d148e56c4e85e303831d | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x4a87394ba8a9bc9f0ed53d3da5445b4f38f8bfe8c82d9ce49145f4d6797a7846 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will “Boots” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-745 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will “Nightmares of Nature: Season 2” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025) | Event: what... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-18 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 18? | 79,220,275 | 79,220,275 |
39f9d541870f17271fb00c8ccc47dc1c452627f5 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x56738bcc1df303537beb648ad5b60cdfb784f6cb30ffdbd04d679aa8821b1966 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will “Nightmares of Nature: Season 2” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-745 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57-58°F on November 4? | Even... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-19 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 19? | 79,264,162 | 79,264,162 |
7c2c97e2726454eb8ed6299521ca8a29ac3aec4e | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x7ace2cbeb7d9dae43a307109d41c9615d7aa040f1c75f1d6412f19563758a7b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57-58°F on November 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-nov... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on November 20? | 79,305,910 | 79,305,910 |
c8fe54843dbbefb7ca04980e3b0591db58ca8639 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xa568c3445a8eae04ca5b4713c1ec40f4ef11ae2e814085cdf6dcb8539e47ccb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-20 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 20? | 79,305,910 | 79,305,910 |
dcd64abb708f84d6294acd81bc6cb0e0d0776127 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x0ed9e074e4f64a90f6e6b727064e131b995309f5afde09f9cd53f5a9f9e983a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-4... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-18 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on November 18? | 79,315,079 | 79,315,079 |
25b09b4792337aaaef0cd8b1584a923e6bcc1903 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xc0197960a63fe2dbc68e70620a34aee129d7bf815d50962d5eec91bc2fc05da5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-18 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on November 18? | 79,315,079 | 79,315,079 |
ea4d0e22f528af701ab410a08e9e52b78ec21719 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xf50a3dde03e9315c5ec3e668b6056984bcafdae4decb3e826cc3446f625d4587 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-novemb... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be 40°F or below on November 18? | 79,315,079 | 79,315,079 |
3f8bb1e744943c9e0c80ade92c09cdabd727b371 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x778c0bab5f720ef449fc0db936f8a1ffc21faa43f52842eb3965c5021bfb82a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on November 19? | 79,315,087 | 79,315,087 |
2407e643d2f7b2d5a3d4dd62da5f181774b79340 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x9a9606c312214f9de6987fe96fdd8ea7f5bf03b8becc72ea1000ff130b342396 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-nov... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-20 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 20? | 79,315,088 | 79,315,088 |
90eb58b9d3df98542107eb33047c1c399df373c0 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xc2d8276ae546ae4c0cf97ddd88af8542cd105098af13503002a13f81f092400c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on November 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-novembe... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-18 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 18? | 79,315,088 | 79,315,088 |
2936aacbdf0bebb89f8d96a7e6cd922cccb5d6f1 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x13fbae2e6e95c0102d7bf4a6d2643e278499d8990c8c38e4369819b27caed2f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on November 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on November 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-novembe... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on November 20? | 79,315,090 | 79,315,090 |
0f6ee67714bb8eb4eb8e3cafe824a80c6fa6cf04 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xa40ddeab218544becbe644c682df1659772c6e7d1eabd70f7b85ec44ed157496 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on November 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on November 18? | 79,315,090 | 79,315,090 |
91cc8ba4f1b03a84fbc3796ce2b9851377899cd1 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xa8000bfad66ca5534e1ea70db9c222615c202d00107448b56efe3dc25fed3e93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-nov... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 37-38°F on November 20? | 79,315,090 | 79,315,090 |
3fcc402f7f522368f21d87aa935783c64ef4e641 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xca286d4fc6bab7bf5e87eca6212780cf4520c40dfa0b46ff5c00f598e32fb783 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on November 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on November 18? | 79,315,090 | 79,315,090 |
8c6f2488fd6cf6f3041f7f3aadadff13e0be4fd7 | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0x443943434711cb8cf4380839291dc784ad23b007338b3d612ec04e1d8b95d11c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Red Sox vs. Royals
Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | red sox | 0 | mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Red Sox vs. Royals | 71,330,088 | 71,330,088 |
b402d3c7836b67e3e780f18dfb76cb10b4f9294f | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0xe0d07ddff4ab18a353fbb802cc6da87be9819b23cce70dfc0048aa2e3068e465 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Royals | Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers
Event: nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "ratio... | maple leafs | 0 | nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09 | Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | 71,330,955 | 71,330,955 |
e95bbc151644a995bcb790889387433880592eea | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0xb0af2031780a9056f3f077d977765fe4548ab8bbf3e3e5c4407b08053cfad8ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Royals | Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers
Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-05-09
Predict the user's ... | cavaliers | 0 | nba-cle-ind-2025-05-09 | Cavaliers vs. Pacers | 71,331,378 | 71,352,269 |
fd4700b2285aac8d74ecc90cd55e2ac18e330091 | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0x77f65cf739cccb60180bfac094e56e68b4c266177fee05644158805a49a4f478 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Royals | Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-05-09 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidenc... | brewers | 0 | mlb-mil-tb-2025-05-09 | Brewers vs. Rays | 71,331,388 | 71,331,388 |
f9f485dfec45f24f951244007b3d14cf485016ce | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0x8ea19052e0c2e37cde1c90b76128a13d7b1249aec4667eb0ccf8e7450ccaa925 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Royals | Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-05-09 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidenc... | jets | 0 | nhl-dal-wpg-2025-05-09 | Stars vs. Jets | 71,331,419 | 71,352,267 |
2b3e3eb3cb85fc986481a75cbcee3455f33f7c75 | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0xea68d0d48de80d4de1ff5c2346fe1afd1943dcc81926f0223ba6f39b83b3e020 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Royals | Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-05-09 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidenc... | athletics | 0 | mlb-nyy-oak-2025-05-10 | Yankees vs. Athletics | 71,365,494 | 71,391,433 |
b938665b0db1f712dbb87fb93312acfd6f552fea | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0x832cf25c8a4b1f1102b890fa641d56e5acd3adc591c15dee214594b515fa9597 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Royals | Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-05-09 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidenc... | braves | 0 | mlb-atl-pit-2025-05-10 | Braves vs. Pirates | 71,367,053 | 71,391,434 |
6c7f55f52de9a523ca7c8605dcf40696cf5b9054 | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0x0744b4cb62a0ae1a3a71effa03974a5608ff7c9e375fac4efbe9fe64ce9311ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Royals | Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-05-09 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidenc... | cubs | 0 | mlb-chc-nym-2025-05-10 | Cubs vs. Mets | 71,368,245 | 71,391,434 |
a3033c69e3160307ca7689eaf704a7a0d63d2430 | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0x6a7b90a7d2152ff78c6d4f265c3481f86fe22a66f7666fce2ab140cadfb7bd6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Royals | Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-05-09 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidenc... | cardinals | 0.253187 | mlb-stl-wsh-2025-05-11 | Cardinals vs. Nationals | 71,399,850 | 71,399,850 |
17aa4e3ba4095582c165ab2366ac3d1e0d51bbdc | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0xa6f015816a89d9a34034610c5befc918e550ac66038c0357366e77d3be4753a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Royals | Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-05-09 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidenc... | giants | 0.049925 | mlb-sf-min-2025-05-11 | Giants vs. Twins | 71,399,872 | 71,399,872 |
40b854d0dbb790d15fe6b7ef4a45a711978cf7d6 | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0x5465b1a344123c907b64672225755cfcf088f4be729f4c759832704194661f1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Royals | Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-05-09 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidenc... | dodgers | 0.103095 | mlb-lad-ari-2025-05-11 | Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks | 71,403,324 | 71,403,324 |
0e3b9d962973d6f2ee7802547b1847118a99c819 | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0xa758f6bd87fe926f1210ae1767583787007fd4fb127a847ce28de78f137b9450 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Royals | Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-05-09 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidenc... | cavaliers | 0 | nba-ind-cle-2025-05-13 | Pacers vs. Cavaliers | 71,489,702 | 71,489,702 |
c85309a91becd689223fb8b65400c00675a832f7 | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0x527ee3dd078b8ed300e8e016f68cf8f0c91e7fc5bac562435289209be02aa54a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Royals | Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-05-09 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidenc... | jets | 0 | nhl-wpg-dal-2025-05-13 | Jets vs. Stars | 71,492,118 | 71,492,118 |
221ec6e95703de4dd3460c405570c7672493e8aa | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0xd6f4deb24ebb0b924d9531d239d62e2b18230c3f74d8b789735651a729cb662c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Royals | Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-05-09 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidenc... | nuggets | 0 | nba-den-okc-2025-05-13 | Nuggets vs. Thunder | 71,492,920 | 71,492,920 |
9861d78d639444ca354f269172473d285e50ac93 | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0x9fc44dff9e5c2d5636ab8db80d95308ac93e3824ccae34c0b8c96322570b5405 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Royals | Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-05-09 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidenc... | twins | 0.000084 | mlb-cle-min-2025-05-19 | Guardians vs. Twins | 71,736,291 | 71,736,291 |
0e723a8aded655f38b15328251ea8dc25584175a | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0x45258d446db381304a06006c2682952dcae32e6e3a51174ed479c9a627067110 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Royals | Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-05-09 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidenc... | athletics | 0 | mlb-oak-nyy-2025-06-27 | Athletics vs. Yankees | 73,309,264 | 73,309,264 |
507f2ce11189c88d197fc31a59ef98e62c28cd99 | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0x571585c7605435dec7ce1ac34e7bfffd957bc94aa3c320a34a25fc047f769845 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Royals | Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-05-09 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidenc... | orioles | 0 | mlb-tb-bal-2025-06-27 | Rays vs. Orioles | 73,309,276 | 73,332,580 |
3cab1312427ef6fe7b98b6ddb5c01d9e426bb062 | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0xe1e9a928cb36a8ab18bc9845937e1c5ffea54f423d84183dd455997acb2d44a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Royals | Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-05-09 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidenc... | brewers | 0 | mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Rockies vs. Brewers | 73,309,655 | 73,332,580 |
62732dbcd37fe309294a1dc08cda67927c17f8d6 | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0x48a8369a5fc5fef7145d5b83ad4ad1e681d45a260fdfb96809d75586dde0bc1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Royals | Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-05-09 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidenc... | dodgers | 0 | mlb-lad-kc-2025-06-27 | Dodgers vs. Royals | 73,310,196 | 73,332,580 |
d2613dcf6fdd7fd412c3fb5f13fa2408e9e88c4e | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0x2856ea511bfa71d0c9354f8630552080a4a1cf76fe4b7c9a5c31eb35fdd4db1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Royals | Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-05-09 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidenc... | braves | 0 | mlb-phi-atl-2025-06-29 | Phillies vs. Braves | 73,380,760 | 73,380,760 |
6d8e1375a03fe446d043fb08aaea9f71d03add1b | 0x05a4000e8e8ff876110033ed8d91c1d2772e1e85 | 0xf8c789a3c6b0d17b376683c1489c074764724f4a63c96b5b8980ea59b5917c36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Royals | Event: mlb-bos-kc-2025-05-09 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-tor-fla-2025-05-09 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-05-09 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidenc... | blue jays | 0 | mlb-tor-bos-2025-06-29 | Blue Jays vs. Red Sox | 73,380,775 | 73,383,863 |
1a9c3d625682dbe06811f5c862e0c8cbca3689ee | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x687e5e46f227ea8ea27489e73561fa2dd2cf17d4955f80c921f4d476addef469 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024?
Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | 63,242,934 | 63,242,934 |
ef74df3a4acba1229f6ea6c2f2d41a456db5b1b3 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0xd4a5d075976c4b6e4ff7fbc0d9d0df6e53b0643312c7684989188c2ee5383bed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024?
Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the tar... | yes | 1 | cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | 63,300,767 | 63,300,767 |
981d8f979f8bb5737e48f53f2e8f866776944852 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x7d3c85cc30993d90db5d8c1eaab89e502284cf6d0128eab113686b66dddd2e76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will L... | no | 1 | cs2-blast-premier-world-final-winner-2024 | Will Liquid win Blast Premier World Final 2024? | 63,724,268 | 63,724,268 |
8af80f744efa7a3baa326ca023a31589e5620c3e | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x217b7565ffa3fa56f16da18f23d040d8acb041abf770b7d90ec813fae2f93fd3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | no | 1 | cs2-blast-premier-world-final-winner-2024 | Will Mouz win Blast Premier World Final 2024? | 63,757,347 | 63,757,347 |
7c3f4194028015dd75177b1e36ae87fccaa663ec | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x6d7a40de5387ed03369e9247454d57d96438f9ae5e2ddb2af3dc74b62c667f5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | yes | 1 | worlds-2024-lol-winner | Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | 63,810,609 | 63,810,609 |
89bdc68426795b67fb4da8e0b1e267d45e4ab55d | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x28db88e2acb151997b4ee6e1ab3a07b5aacc0422a7ae6908ebbe2d312c3fec3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | no | 1 | cs2-blast-premier-world-final-winner-2024 | Will another team win Blast Premier World Final 2024? | 63,838,831 | 63,838,831 |
7c6318c4f6508cf3539d12a1801f7de7761e9f90 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x82590dce5f04ff97b4e81dac18dd4a9e9944e34b32ed1410d5834f755cec67d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | yes | 1 | cs2-blast-premier-world-final-winner-2024 | Will G2 win Blast Premier World Final 2024? | 63,838,831 | 63,838,831 |
d359055c214efb5ccab890dd0918b909528b36f2 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x210273ebe50c73651ae0a077324c0de0e27a606b4ef24325dab600b344172939 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | yes | 1 | moldova-presidential-election-winner | Will Maia Sandu win the 2024 Moldova presidential election? | 63,882,854 | 63,882,854 |
68c6258b3065ea776d924bacc39a417634ca5e7c | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x3d31558105899ab4025075b92cfb127fae4be0e9644a6895466aa50e2de37e72 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | yes | 0.999988 | fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting? | 64,027,279 | 64,027,279 |
45379c4b360dad1f71fc48c10a797806b5483cc9 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x2a3a29b57597777e5d2941c419716b02a7b8c43b5c19c4ac746ae2d9c720cbe1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | 64,148,452 | 64,148,452 |
7db327b729874c7660a01fdb7965111b1dba13e5 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0xe4a9b98237a29e778ac5717e3d29220bb2f0c0370e8e3436d4a277853556355f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting? | 64,148,452 | 64,148,452 |
8c4299cbd5f93ad85c77aa0f0f489af2107d5173 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x7edd43421e39df5a251bee0f06bf8e024acb6244fa5eff657d5fd63159e0cb89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | yes | 1 | paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Will the fight go the distance? | 64,348,874 | 64,348,874 |
8515e3e3b096efdf35611cddcc6f11b849b0494e | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x9c23593b309f27a4e05f059032d59c2a37f8bb10d126ac7e22014593a07fa9a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | yes | 1 | jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | 64,348,874 | 64,348,874 |
8b4c68cf543578f1e602c27f81ef1093b9ead05f | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0xb4961db4b70b4ebeebce6dee9816eda7a18443ae2d25240a70a0614a01f44ed2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | no | 1 | jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | 64,348,874 | 64,348,874 |
c925ed3f9d8be4156f01eb5e015216e355a42ca1 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x9c66114d2dfe2139325cc7a408a5cd5d2e73b55d919e2141b3a0ed83fc15895d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | no | 0.412883 | will-bitcoin-hit-100k-in-2024 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? | 65,038,701 | 65,038,701 |
ac7594ec8191aa492dc7f56fd662cbea4ce0b587 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x68ff092a4ea332946bc7ca59efc2b2a56bb702fd0d85d02ba883d29d7fdc5f2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | no | 1 | south-korean-president-impeached-in-2024 | South Korean President impeached in 2024? | 65,063,540 | 65,194,992 |
c62a3fdd5236535013cd78ac74a1516981284d7f | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x2da5d7393176a24ffc4d1f62d4475d0578698f148141b767ac7d46f111905d56 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | yes | 0.147156 | will-bitcoin-hit-100k-by-friday-12-6 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? | 65,084,745 | 65,084,745 |
ffb56ffe963ab4e3d8b88bc202753c9ff6f44c24 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x9ce4ce441b98560634b67589135dac0034a45edaacf13455c9add1ddbb6b7dec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | no | 1 | will-assad-remain-president-of-syria-through-2024 | Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? | 65,188,279 | 65,188,279 |
1b4782ab558b1ab38e7481b6efca8bd2fd4e09cd | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0xd22301f5d1aa29c6babdee5b56023b2c7f07b2afb800772620b1a9f934b7ba04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | no | 1 | cs2-perfect-world-shanghai-majors-winner | Will GamerLegion win the Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024? | 65,190,401 | 65,190,401 |
7d510c92337296abc40be0bb0e85f4de47734c17 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x7949174f6cb3b0781fbd1a63a51fb7d2e72ac2d7cff1628f2c62477b64734bff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | yes | 1 | will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | 65,275,696 | 65,744,597 |
22a9c7937475b57d5337448e1abea69759386ab8 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0xa8019c363268cbe8864c032b133631c5fd2e0bf437135cdbff7c97903532a154 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-100000-on-december-13 | Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 13? | 65,405,097 | 65,444,944 |
a2b638d48b51ab28184854d32cb9e8752de0611b | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x940472c1ae053778a9a5f419b2b856f42e9797e14519dcc52719f88445829325 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | yes | 1 | cs2-perfect-world-shanghai-majors-winner | Will FaZe Clan win the Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024? | 65,517,302 | 65,517,302 |
cd62420ee6005a2519dd38fb01786d508eb65980 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x25fb5cff767eb77b44b537461eaccd51db3aac58be6e60e1ce8721d6a13707a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | no | 0.999947 | next-coin-on-robinhood | Will $BONK be listed first on Robinhood? | 65,699,619 | 65,699,619 |
79830d946a0aa0bed3cfba5b55358f24102189f8 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0xf956e916e9e29e8140b7bb5dc9c0a0eba6f85ac8da1e46ab7370772f62a0332c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | yes | 0.991375 | usyk-vs-fury-2 | Will Usyk beat Fury? | 65,786,534 | 65,786,534 |
aea93aa72d50965b276bdea2b1742740a58bcf55 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x394851952cb613c24a24b9eb695b828617545a40b4c0013ddc16222ea68561f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | no | 0 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2024 | Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024? | 66,112,420 | 66,175,642 |
71a1e73822e8739807823755595b3bac464a36cc | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0xa5ac4cdcfff44ddfb0d332d33575f766414465786fb7d4350782db40d5e9da11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | no | 1 | trump-wins-ends-ukraine-war-in-90-days | Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | 66,722,378 | 70,496,599 |
609c4714cc3e0c9f177ce83cb06f71965f717719 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x1663edea3eba0d1ae8f064276dd426cb0497a19bb5188dae48a2f8fa8ea34da8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | no | 0.000001 | ukraine-agrees-to-give-trump-rare-earth-metals-before-april | Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? | 68,486,696 | 68,486,696 |
b71170a6f608f9df5ae7b74c368eb9a5381a46ae | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x515b15f2d8fb8a3af69e2dcb7283a3078914f3ee6429e8c8806017b39bef190b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | no | 0.00414 | will-russia-recapture-sudzha-by | Will Russia recapture Sudzha by March 31? | 68,932,506 | 68,948,722 |
113ebf334e3213d838a1a9871de2345d131c32ce | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x5412ae25e97078f814157de948459d59c6221b4c4c495fdd57b536543ad36729 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | yes | 0.612531 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-july | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | 70,495,423 | 71,361,386 |
3bcf7158ffee27311d5ef1fe41642eed41c24118 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x7c0cea4d74ffb2c8451f8834fc9f93e72479eab3a4a98b75127940f5f60f1622 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | no | 0.000002 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | 71,270,408 | 71,270,962 |
60d98fc7ee9da87b79f9ffe3ca9f588a2f1b1ca3 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x41eda073eeca4071d3a643a527bf8549851ff16c7e4b924a007671cb11920f98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liquid win Bla... | yes | 0.032233 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-october | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | 71,361,819 | 71,361,819 |
c50ae466035bb75c61e28194095e81e91f064041 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x8ee2f1640386310eb5e7ffa596ba9335f2d324e303d21b0dfea6998874445791 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ENCE win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | Event: cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liquid win Blast Premier World Final 2024? | Event: cs2-blast-premier-world-final-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mouz win Bl... | no | 0.03226 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | 71,362,008 | 79,485,238 |
926362ac0781b9f01efaab414cbfbc3624a8bc75 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x7b2a1f078cd5c664b5c297e3974065134aa1eda70a7b97abdc60c83932bb516a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liquid win Blast Premier World Final 2024? | Event: cs2-blast-premier-world-final-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mouz win Blast Premier World Final 2024? | Event: cs2-blast-premier-world-final-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will T1 w... | no | 0.414302 | another-us-military-action-against-iran-by-june-30 | Another US military action against Iran by June 30? | 73,138,388 | 73,138,388 |
45ecc8f4591dd2a136f5b43e8667cbcdff7dfa5f | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x5d892486e700e4b7afb9b1726ce4697b0c3002bc086dca4bf1131c932788e920 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mouz win Blast Premier World Final 2024? | Event: cs2-blast-premier-world-final-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another team win Blast Premier World Fina... | no | 1 | khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-july-31 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? | 73,138,561 | 73,138,561 |
f8ae7ab95031572bb99d38eaca2559166248a188 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0xd2055601def8961bea2e6fc911538c64ee181e7ae944f67c78f395e39df43580 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another team win Blast Premier World Final 2024? | Event: cs2-blast-premier-world-final-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will G2 win Blast Premier World Final ... | yes | 0 | israel-strike-on-iran-on | Israel strike on Iran on June 24? | 73,160,944 | 73,160,944 |
7c26e5cf162b30473645561e3a85ef4bec0a4b9f | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x136b33d1184f4f249e01ab9af3d5de88f1777563091a5827b811191c63a1dc73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another team win Blast Premier World Final 2024? | Event: cs2-blast-premier-world-final-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will G2 win Blast Premier World Final 2024? | Event: cs2-blast-premier-world-final-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 0.000012 | israel-strike-on-iran-on | Israel strike on Iran on June 27? | 73,176,935 | 73,176,935 |
b68f11826d72ae31cdb9d4ab2a43b9c63a022132 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x655e5ca101c466b6293aa15e06173b78b293221803d56e35551f708cd82eb352 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will G2 win Blast Premier World Final 2024? | Event: cs2-blast-premier-world-final-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Maia Sandu win the 2024 Moldova presidential election? | Event: moldova-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fe... | yes | 0.329021 | will-zelenskyy-wear-a-suit-before-july | Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | 73,199,461 | 73,202,028 |
b6147de1259420c38cef0597fb57600955d5d8b0 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0xfe4ddfdf4e6b6188967331f5932c8ec6dcbc815572ef9f3566b5d903a708b61f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Maia Sandu win the 2024 Moldova presidential election? | Event: moldova-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.99... | yes | 0.519386 | fordow-nuclear-facility-destroyed-before-july | Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? | 73,201,517 | 73,201,517 |
ef21260e6ea8e2268306a945827965117ba9829d | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x31e0d4320eb9666e93e20f989061f3eee82e80de9caff260cdeb9c0a4946093b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999881012846621
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Conf... | no | 1 | over-1pt8b-committed-to-the-megaeth-public-sale | Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | 78,273,421 | 78,274,227 |
66295d860997b135b758bb841378062845d76080 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0xf2961c5c9fdf89e689d0d232927f9e0fb4083bbcc4cd88ab2b14e3af827fb62d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 0.837718 | over-1pt8b-committed-to-the-megaeth-public-sale | Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | 78,279,657 | 78,316,683 |
6b4a687365dd05b0c428408b78a3370e37396273 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0xf21fa02ef79ac3e83a32c5ecafeca8ce5629609ba1773d9cc69e39b04f66bfa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the fight go the distance? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing m... | no | 0.018376 | over-1pt8b-committed-to-the-megaeth-public-sale | Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | 78,312,425 | 78,332,929 |
517924687e59568e53985833f384d638d54f0506 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x9920212c135186c21ab3cb81f9a53f2ad5bcbce86bec7bd423786ab5e45f0ffa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight go the distance? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match ag... | no | 0 | over-1pt8b-committed-to-the-megaeth-public-sale | Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | 78,337,865 | 78,338,180 |
0fdf6021cc4b486ff0ef6dae64fab05343c9feaa | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | 0x42d812af0840d50685b0aaa0cc0a4b3c07a680cd12a85d88a377558f3621c78c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 0.019751 | over-1pt8b-committed-to-the-megaeth-public-sale | Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | 78,357,743 | 78,362,199 |
71dc325015e1d388f3c1e680ca978bed188344a4 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x23a28690a44b5f15dfdb52a7d5990946b03cdc94a0bb0b684aaaa6e0974f21f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win?
Event: panama-presidential-election-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | panama-presidential-election-winner | Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | 56,787,539 | 56,787,539 |
b19b397e776ecb58c0dc68704f2e8e89c12f5743 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x3e81450fe47385e6c2642dd290d91ef98f0fbd16fcde61b5c44855cd02eccd8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win?
Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win
Predict the user's choi... | yes | 1 | mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | 57,764,558 | 57,764,558 |
a3ea42e784946cbe74627924a82f609e7a08f08d | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x80e14125844dcb3dd3885290bc0a03626223a92b3a704ba10363d250e8640b86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Ta... | yes | 1 | mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Mexican Presidential Election: Will Claudia Sheinbaum win? | 57,764,558 | 57,764,558 |
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