sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
a51a0642c9b01041c111ac2fbb59df4ed15e03ea | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x19ed7346bd4f3459077bdcee47b4682eb0212791e4b30f6dd13ecdbe0e410e42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | yes | 0.996823 | 2025-french-open-winner-w | Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 French Open? | 72,507,793 | 72,507,805 |
5b663b657b7a4990da9a3156edb84ef64ee17e12 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xd2db34a92e907ca0dd6106560b1e805afa91ff97683fd31b2c489fd83accd498 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | yes | 0.358644 | 2025-french-open-winner-w | Will Coco Gauff win the 2025 French Open? | 72,507,799 | 72,507,802 |
b44d4e6174d7a16585a084e667bb8d080e9c996b | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x90108c492d2e7f6de3cd903faa2b314deabef7fee11d75a5f9f29ef8041552e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | no | 0.699479 | 2025-boss-open-winner | Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 Boss Open? | 72,805,297 | 72,805,300 |
56df63a18b9803da3124a8514bab9d6189bae26a | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xf2a89afeddff5315e37211b0b0e4e93ed167fba2694cd35c252672d0aca73711 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | no | 0.259771 | nba-champion-2024-2025 | Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | 72,992,314 | 73,115,555 |
7d732717996ffb06b5cc4d5d8c1fb5b4a76e20f7 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xe7e600e00a1909a360a363ba99bc88cd62d1823bab966366182684e06125e3dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | yes | 0.38345 | nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-3? | 72,992,316 | 73,114,559 |
0b422ce12c7e64cca22707a6ab765fb757f3b533 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xd1b383f18508856e8fbfc81ebce848828d94f0b190dc793350dfa5226515ad5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | no | 1 | 2025-terra-wortmann-open-winner | Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 Terra Wortmann Open? | 73,091,220 | 73,091,220 |
9378081283d79ab502a8b628398772466982cc9e | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xf1812d16c817a579056999b9e379c3675ce56a856f5452cfccc4ccf58cd3a614 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | 2025-hsbc-championships-winner | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 HSBC Championships? | 73,092,920 | 73,092,920 |
aab2d4bf630e9286231a580d477fd5f96bf30b8e | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x92661a961adbe8a587a1f2c1fb610829a9018dfaf9afb83c47d56cc2e2424bf7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-a-winner-632 | Will Inter Miami CF win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,152,420 | 73,152,420 |
15836f272912d0a44cbd20316c0696057ac16adf | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x58a6331f3d1d93ae204d90d5dfc0932b9a545a5cae5e3177b5ac25f32911eba8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-a-winner-632 | Will Palmeiras win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,152,593 | 73,152,593 |
a9ef1936548de2e7c9c5261d44a8b84eeb9311f8 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x7ec21f8680dcb5771ff3434e881f0710d3a5d4e635b18b5753b0bcee1c5ee667 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-c-winner-663 | Will Bayern Munich win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,183,681 | 73,183,681 |
fdef73c09dec91e57d8a0ef3122bed81856a521e | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x235c1a35c662fc30c68554ca907bcaaf9e882e9645948ea525d9180cd3519822 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-c-winner-663 | Will Benfica win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,183,685 | 73,183,685 |
a657fcb38be265a174677cc1beef62623600db61 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x5581b3eca579e390507c5de1b1339f1aea59410c604f760805eb2907544efb2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 3AM ET | 73,478,708 | 73,478,708 |
2c29e0eb5d91c2a1725d7de50631ea8c2e655763 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x75cd68609c4844e8ceb5d73b686a5c4afa0064bfc8fa62a067ff758432b75888 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | down | 0.006792 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-15 | Bitcoin Up or Down on July 15? | 73,963,105 | 73,998,128 |
a665272919a47f76e01e08e83983ff34af2b73d4 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xc95ab826a7fe4b32d7ac8eeb39126d6dcf2c6002cd7ba71c8e1b9f8ac2938398 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-16 | Bitcoin Up or Down on July 16? | 73,998,553 | 74,032,224 |
6f43f4928557c332237cb61c58a7ba98194f51d0 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x0c092c0f72ea6fcc6fb3ec3812e0a76d62a151098ad3a824d50be0a3a8bd0ef7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | up | 0.000882 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-17-6pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 17, 6PM ET | 74,086,461 | 74,086,461 |
51d824ea14cfbbf80a9670b29421afbd7942cbd6 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x2c6c5841bc60ae24def13baaec3e2cdb85f991fc7dc61dfb7c1fd0bfed19d91c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-18-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4PM ET | 74,123,475 | 74,123,475 |
819ec31246568639eaabeee81537782e08e9a9bd | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xae873d60fd5818f22d29818ac7f90e97054442805f338f8321048c3eb65aa90d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-20-11am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 11AM ET | 74,195,444 | 74,195,444 |
b32c3b4903cca842f2ed2e6753ad6279a5f0cf04 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xf275e7df4319e9ab7b57d9cf2db4040bf65dbe94b150272db79f1ab6bf8df118 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-20-4pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 4PM ET | 74,203,968 | 74,203,968 |
02e9f44e8fce5671878d51b92f7b9747a1414146 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x0dfb2e8c5b18423ec4c00ba046d96d8880c4db1a1d56910382e1c4c8b307401c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-21 | Bitcoin Up or Down on July 21? | 74,235,726 | 74,241,233 |
164216b856c0b71bbd7938f0d150d5b7a1a52c06 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x73a6552945e96e4e38ab41528c89cd3bf5def3eb40837d547fb62db913d978a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-8pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 8PM ET | 74,250,652 | 74,253,334 |
3fd57803c9d3f6da77b6ad6a67984c0a8cdac0d0 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x24a758eb6585055e2663c18a086f117151c8bc7660e94a5a0cf499021a9db857 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-24 | Bitcoin Up or Down on July 24? | 74,352,486 | 74,361,004 |
705c28b268325d8ad49d66ea4103564a7996028e | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x0f62480f6ed457f4de355b901bec772c6c442d938a8090d3dea91a7c964c6755 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-25-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 25, 9AM ET | 74,393,827 | 74,396,299 |
1107a56496b5c143c996ffc4cb203d244e81201f | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x686fe59b5ebd8efee00bc93a4e2ac86f445e61922195140e12e483f71d9fb7c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-25-11am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 25, 11AM ET | 74,397,429 | 74,399,698 |
9b61526297eedce6f6973fdc726adcd800cbb44e | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x9a6744b555c9855c99553fa35fa802a1d87adaf9f75eb3de63750d8b3d55a4a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8569524870981029
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
3. Ques... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-july-27-10am-et | Solana Up or Down - July 27, 10AM ET | 74,476,935 | 74,479,045 |
e4df9e181195ceb2c936ee2ae36d02475645f3d7 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x919f22ae364beb319cb0270d87b7b727a7137e7f8bee62fc82830ededc5573ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2863212146538515
2. Question: Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? | Event: nba-eastern-conference-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Pace... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-27-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8PM ET | 74,493,771 | 74,496,192 |
8e5d6272965c7d0ecbb03f20ba5fecc446584cd9 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xa9f2e4ab69b9993f2f5afd1533c4789cd8ca423e0a4541f5552e7bad29854edb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? | Event: nba-eastern-conference-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pacers vs. Thunder be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? | Event: nba-2025-finals-matchup | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alexander Zvere... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-july-28-5am-et | Solana Up or Down - July 28, 5AM ET | 74,509,182 | 74,511,478 |
7f8ef043f854f69efedca27cca1b0e096fe20c84 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x1a308de3cd218e9bb6f3196e62c15e0e152efa88dea265e29fa606fdbeb76242 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pacers vs. Thunder be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? | Event: nba-2025-finals-matchup | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alexander Zverev reach the quarterfinals of the French Open? | Event: who-will-reach-the-quarterfinals-of-french-open | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.537807... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-july-28-11am-et | Solana Up or Down - July 28, 11AM ET | 74,519,344 | 74,521,620 |
8a8c0328f2ec960a9a3e6092af92bd2e36cdfa6c | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x7c858d008ff1b9a8e538a3cb20082a05cfdc9db68f361de253218caac177d648 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev reach the quarterfinals of the French Open? | Event: who-will-reach-the-quarterfinals-of-french-open | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5378078950198989
2. Question: French Open: Zverev vs. Griekspoor | Event: french-open-zverev-vs-griekspoor | Choice: griekspoor | Confidence... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-28-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9PM ET | 74,536,280 | 74,538,600 |
78e7f0f634179366a824b2e3833a8c0662c4a6d8 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x440ccb48711e4463d655b20eb695ecf6899c768313a40b88db8718d8c5e95590 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: French Open: Zverev vs. Griekspoor | Event: french-open-zverev-vs-griekspoor | Choice: griekspoor | Confidence: 0.5378078950198989
2. Question: French Open: Sabalenka vs. Gauff | Event: french-open-sabalenka-vs-gauff | Choice: gauff | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-july-30-6am-et | Solana Up or Down - July 30, 6AM ET | 74,591,928 | 74,592,076 |
6b0bf3476f4066179db4e38393aa207af17fe76c | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x6dd9e466080b548b2b6dbd562e97f5b4f08eb00b1239e36bb3e1faaad87bdca9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: French Open: Sabalenka vs. Gauff | Event: french-open-sabalenka-vs-gauff | Choice: gauff | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 French Open? | Event: 2025-french-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9968231377233334
3. Question: Will Coco Gauff win the 2025 F... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-30-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 6AM ET | 74,592,073 | 74,655,877 |
ad021d6890c72a000f83262f5996fa95b2bf273d | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x0077857a1825c2e441cb0d8e4259ed6d1ff97c68ea1d5b5dec16bb67182a5725 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 French Open? | Event: 2025-french-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9968231377233334
2. Question: Will Coco Gauff win the 2025 French Open? | Event: 2025-french-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3586438350940086
3. Question: Will Alexander... | yes | 1 | us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025 | Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? | 74,608,222 | 74,608,222 |
a612ab69db0b83d2aecf09ff5569c0b0713732fd | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x67d0872435cb3ed0e7c135e24fdba3926477f78e603bc3dd9d4877095825a5f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win the 2025 French Open? | Event: 2025-french-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3586438350940086
2. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 Boss Open? | Event: 2025-boss-open-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6994790609566335
3. Question: Will the Indiana Pac... | yes | 1 | us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025 | Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be less than 2%? | 74,608,283 | 74,608,283 |
9b73bc2085833e64360259af945aca7b2b1b4070 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x056922c3d59d4bc1e9897635dba92a7bb9d49418b5ab3681aaeff3b96e996749 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 Boss Open? | Event: 2025-boss-open-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6994790609566335
2. Question: Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2597712322264168
3. Question: Will the Pacers b... | yes | 1 | us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025 | Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? | 74,608,285 | 74,608,285 |
1244811a0864dbaab46a12044d02862d845c38a6 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xa41141522f1648a0a999e93782ec3ee3094c54cd9021aa34dae0dbc4b5722546 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2597712322264168
2. Question: Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-3? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.38344999222274073
3. Question: W... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-2-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 5PM ET | 74,723,737 | 74,723,737 |
1005c876531af4503b93c34ae868b879e3093828 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x8f6179f081458db76957bb2dc3c69751df25a91fcf0ec173ebe16184647e9562 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-3? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.38344999222274073
2. Question: Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 Terra Wortmann Open? | Event: 2025-terra-wortmann-open-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-3-3pm-et | Solana Up or Down - August 3, 3PM ET | 74,761,042 | 74,763,278 |
dc2245ec45dea2a6c5cb4cc4ae4b754524eb24e4 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xecd6e7bcaa19fff27b4b6c8e0a3762651f11d438cf6d9cd1d189dde0da81d548 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 Terra Wortmann Open? | Event: 2025-terra-wortmann-open-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 HSBC Championships? | Event: 2025-hsbc-championships-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Miam... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-3pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 3PM ET | 74,761,046 | 74,761,046 |
ba86ff8e54b600a4e80bed3a1b3fc2f60ac6639b | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x143076a4adc835627787c7f3d5778b8ab830cc40d67ddf68dd9a7c106036233d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 HSBC Championships? | Event: 2025-hsbc-championships-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Miami CF win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-a-winner-632 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-4-2am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 2AM ET | 74,779,615 | 74,779,615 |
13cfefd8e9e0e17774dedba055a9d5dd322de949 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xb03b6586e9c78ad46ded686d6fc5ff86f147807b37112f91684fb63293886571 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Miami CF win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-a-winner-632 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Palmeiras win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-a-winner-632 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-4-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 11AM ET | 74,794,534 | 74,797,016 |
89d4888dc856821c62dc48d327a49b1bade50a5d | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xa1b83d4d91de53ae1cf71f87c2ffa07cf043731de6c51d932e1b0de663f4c013 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palmeiras win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-a-winner-632 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayern Munich win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-c-winner-663 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-6-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 10AM ET | 74,873,840 | 74,876,441 |
6f9c1616db7d3356e683a90c368520cdd1d51ee9 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xb47bffbaa7bad9effc3cfa6606c67cce1bff102d0d1cf1301ca72f81f8d510b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-c-winner-663 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Benfica win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-c-winner-663 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-7-4pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 4PM ET | 74,924,874 | 74,924,874 |
45029a86f611196538097bd16b2318e4b021bd89 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x4793d6084ea812e6d72bd761d0cc098a962733a3cb3a897047ac36100d575365 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Benfica win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-c-winner-663 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on J... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-7-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 5PM ET | 74,926,439 | 74,926,439 |
afb0dc23d3d9d5821f933aece6b4175ef7837c4b | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x55577ee85750bb74c8be5a7ee4ac5466be60184d2623a63849215cc9b61bd973 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 15? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-15 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.006791629686865671
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 16? | Eve... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-7-9pm-et | Solana Up or Down - August 7, 9PM ET | 74,933,258 | 74,933,258 |
1c99260ec011bc9d98a6daaf937ff6afda793e95 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xb40e3f64de5f197f0cbf99ec099fefc4264160f338ba1816d335584b9ca48224 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 15? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-15 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.006791629686865671
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 16? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-16 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 17, 6PM ET | Even... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-9-6am-et | Solana Up or Down - August 9, 6AM ET | 74,988,992 | 74,991,022 |
9619c9cb51e22319e67d1f71086e849bdf332fff | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x687a560d75e106303717a92786946084419ecba08e442ec8e6af07e949e6a5af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 16? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-16 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 17, 6PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-17-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.000881575080811049
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4PM ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-9-12pm-et | Solana Up or Down - August 9, 12PM ET | 74,999,073 | 75,001,216 |
b3a3141809f3bcbf27da2a55069a3ef367f41dbc | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x08230f2755ac7ebf99ab4da45b7f4d68531d4d96c91d3eccfe5d90f823cac88f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 17, 6PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-17-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.000881575080811049
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-18-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Ju... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-10-11am-et | Solana Up or Down - August 10, 11AM ET | 75,038,080 | 75,038,080 |
fa483289f8f91fd761c4eba8a80fe772e895ac46 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x5598fc4f5d96e7ff32eae7bb16faba8b71546a2577ae5ed37f17a506f3ae6f0a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-18-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-20-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 4PM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-11-12pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 11, 12PM ET | 75,080,467 | 75,080,467 |
0967aec45c4591545921fc318ef5cf679ab3d379 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x88fbf743acdc3e3503b5bd54392d6f8633d6828755d6006dbb86776034fe1f5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-20-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-20-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 21? | Ev... | yes | 0.00002 | 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt3-friday | 10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday? | 75,128,892 | 75,210,090 |
3e20109a925e0bebc5342138b06f19d828671be2 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xf2b8ef9a91b83147461d7ffd387677a64700d16391fc8440404aa10d0ba4221a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-20-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 21? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-21 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 8PM ET | Event: et... | yes | 0.00174 | august-unemployment-rate | Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.4%? | 75,172,511 | 75,863,517 |
03c85f921ada3f59045dfe3cb3fd9c1230e7c319 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x4a1cf6e03619904f71a2871b2598ce8038a9f15b6cc44a4f517a543c280c4e46 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 21? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-21 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 8PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 24? | Event: bitcoin-u... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-14-2am-et | Solana Up or Down - August 14, 2AM ET | 75,185,043 | 75,185,043 |
7eedac47e0964bea7559d42a26b34d28664ff723 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x6f66dd3edb3e52aec5789cd51a0d6e0a93d53567166a179b9cb64c2e4b734c89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 8PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 24? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-24 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 25, 9AM ET | Event: et... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-14-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 14, 7AM ET | 75,193,602 | 75,193,602 |
ab4a5494b7fba800cd1d72256cbae9f098ceb07c | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xab32fc2f7188089f4e808879daf950ad3257810f55e2ffa6cb7093882c912fe3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 24? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-24 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 25, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-25-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 25, 11AM ET | Event: e... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 12AM ET | 75,222,103 | 75,222,103 |
3f30099890a15e98463d465d7eee29eb33c0b77e | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x68c7cff05da82f15bab9bf69d65b2d34d6df6fc13dddab5c6f775e7492e76d4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 25, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-25-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 25, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-25-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 27, 10AM E... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-15-12am-et | Solana Up or Down - August 15, 12AM ET | 75,222,248 | 75,222,248 |
d963e73cb67529374df2556dec929c6e61ffd7a3 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x854477405ce952a68ae7f447708adc6cc55d007e98b317def814c2108f3346e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 25, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-25-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 27, 10AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-27-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8PM ET ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-16-5am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 16, 5AM ET | 75,271,290 | 75,271,290 |
352b96e0f25fec0133fb446a23b8691814cd0ca3 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x61e0a614a5ff0f0c216ac0b5c461c240a7436d5dfe842251cb2d1bd9ccfbc5db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 27, 10AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-27-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-27-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 28, 5AM ET | Eve... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-16-7pm-et | Solana Up or Down - August 16, 7PM ET | 75,294,872 | 75,294,872 |
4f65eb0a37c54fb1d89d3c70be46becca8bf37c9 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x0ee5677f18f0e8e1bd629b715ff0aa9eb976c7ec8e00bc2c92900b0b9bb07600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-27-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 28, 5AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-28-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 28, 11AM ET | Even... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-17-5am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 17, 5AM ET | 75,311,817 | 75,311,817 |
49bfcf558353e01d517d314e50805d6a13710893 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x662f5bc602d439780212040a784270c2c59c2aa89a0f3a1d72697981d687c1dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 28, 5AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-28-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 28, 11AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-28-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9PM ET | Even... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-17-6am-et | Solana Up or Down - August 17, 6AM ET | 75,313,514 | 75,313,514 |
1a7c27cd5c9c8ae7181221174d7da45c058c9eec | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xe18d40335fc6e2e0ca6e9546e84b2d031f759b6539f1537598a3c914554cacaf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 28, 11AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-28-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-28-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 30, 6AM ET | Eve... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-17-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 17, 9AM ET | 75,318,743 | 75,320,613 |
651ac887a1d198824f1852fe92c6e1030277a205 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x35f164d105f417d32203e10192ea2ffeae28ee1748b1186c3849c0b6a6fac381 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-28-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 30, 6AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-30-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 6AM ET | Even... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-18-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4AM ET | 75,350,838 | 75,350,838 |
f45a7913f8d1fc6c010a54d2c9b8bad3e0d37aaa | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xb3c6dea812df85acb2a7b4b2765e279eca16d9ce979ef92977352329398ab750 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 30, 6AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-30-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-30-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0%... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-18-11am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 18, 11AM ET | 75,362,758 | 75,362,758 |
bf4298ed6bd4d10e79e0c62899f655a55f55c13c | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x364e3019a9ef47e72f7702b3c3058691c2cd3bc5d801e1bf4de940ee4f37e901 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-30-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? | Event: us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be le... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-19-2pm-et | Solana Up or Down - August 19, 2PM ET | 75,408,454 | 75,410,493 |
d1e4b58243d3a8ad6e21847b1586f9e7ab294bdd | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xfd22010b8208ded338c986b077fc1e813a55383b585f30eb0af9ef3b2aa22dc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? | Event: us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be less than 2%? | Event: us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be be... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 7AM ET | 75,477,509 | 75,479,529 |
1256ee941b2139e5c95480026224452a1216e525 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xfa48a99317daef1654d5b03e30557c4222f276657275628d9475e141c64b545d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be less than 2%? | Event: us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? | Event: us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 5PM... | yes | 0.009147 | us-recession-in-2025 | US recession in 2025? | 75,542,126 | 76,611,202 |
7a929ee6380406ef27f708f59d22993a6919b675 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x058b02c2175cf1dd03cae578d7bb8c7d6b6c1833e8373f6c154035c9fe0edf36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? | Event: us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-2-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 3, 3P... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 11AM ET | 75,603,085 | 75,605,365 |
0bc48320ce1f7658d61ae020ecc5be8de6c1635a | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xc855eaacfe14264a2518a2c4333741e418793aecef01dd6a8914cc352b625ee7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-2-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 3, 3PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-3-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 3PM ET ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 11AM ET | 75,724,182 | 75,724,182 |
ee8d3b5da23dcd666fdefd78b5c20d617eea7865 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xa28ef97690316026a32e65778eb3c06617759cd84efd7d012e183bc0640cc226 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 3, 3PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-3-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 3PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 2AM E... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-28-2pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 28, 2PM ET | 75,769,822 | 75,769,966 |
7e5297170db9f15978481cb04c5e12332eeb2986 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xb235b249808f1ed7991d51b453d7d65c8796229217f327f59562de0e9c67306f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 3PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-4-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 11... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-29-6am-et | Solana Up or Down - August 29, 6AM ET | 75,796,957 | 75,798,802 |
24ed8bb2055502d14b7564b9a48b4cf49b9064ec | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x1bf21688140c9ae00a788a4550c2aedbd28d1175e230d1fe30e0871b9cc84e1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-4-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-4-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 10... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-30-1pm-et | Solana Up or Down - August 30, 1PM ET | 75,849,275 | 75,849,275 |
105dff419b8a358a6931b263e831ede188a12298 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xc31f773b9fe5ca23fcbe28cb4dba8b9be57714a0b926f554169f77f0c960ae60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-4-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-6-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 4... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-31-10am-et | XRP Up or Down - August 31, 10AM ET | 75,884,512 | 75,884,512 |
fba368b30beac5d4a191dc8a773c3dc49bc08f1b | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x0ce86b5739a031fbeaa32ec33e708f0a7435399b395e12dfdf2222dfc3a05da8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-6-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-7-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 5P... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 12PM ET | 75,887,888 | 75,887,888 |
9f41057bece4f29b76476e576ffd893a0067533e | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x460fe3595d2d2b418391bf91d2272ff11fb0ec96c60e8d1f04d49baf62782c14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-7-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 7, 9PM E... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-1-10am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 1, 10AM ET | 75,925,015 | 75,927,165 |
5db21fc8e51004413f0eddd11312be06ba8486bd | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x194db469917c05f9d5766e4476a949462c675c8b167f3293a571f7e68a860239 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 7, 9PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-7-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 9, 6AM ET | ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-2-10am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 2, 10AM ET | 75,965,696 | 75,967,854 |
0e1e59c40b67e97390cc6cbabadd797d5f59d5f9 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xd77bef628edb590a97c42bb9e888bacc7467f3b4f70cbeca98feddbe4ae4f2f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 7, 9PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-7-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 9, 6AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-9-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 9, 12PM ET | E... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-2-9pm-et | Solana Up or Down - September 2, 9PM ET | 75,984,465 | 75,986,506 |
f085624704d3b3150ec62c2da63c6680cdb24950 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x7c7c3d6c2deca7755c9da00ea092184b24713924381ca009a699b54a1a8cfea8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 9, 6AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-9-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 9, 12PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-9-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 10, 11AM ET ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 11AM ET | 76,007,776 | 76,010,319 |
d2e4586fd69690e1cbbe9ced366030f6059a27ff | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x151782d0e4d08d6af62729bc4fbb64966d006e0f838719b5f99e933a62d8b595 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 9, 12PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-9-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 10, 11AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-10-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 11, 12... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-11am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 11AM ET | 76,007,778 | 76,007,778 |
405069347d76eba5771d5e100a583270cb65663a | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x0ac91dc0674ea0b91e6eb9cc4a20968976d30fbce391a9050c70eaddf2fba354 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 10, 11AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-10-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 11, 12PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-11-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.3% ... | yes | 0.014222 | largest-company-end-of-2025 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 76,057,610 | 76,923,914 |
aa3b901ca3203cf598af8f0e204e16a97936ebdb | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xb7f1a49fa2980021b47236632a153e35a7680513bd47272f500fc7a40cc220a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 11, 12PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-11-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt3-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.9908906194980457e-05
3. Question: Will the Augus... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-5-6am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 5, 6AM ET | 76,080,626 | 76,083,013 |
688bc77508c2d4a71cfc729935bf419c7c41a039 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xf67cff5d5ae589f26e479cb61c7e6e50cf26ba02dcd8e35c9fab8ea5a0b7b75b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt3-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.9908906194980457e-05
2. Question: Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.4%? | Event: august-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0017396210447129625
3. Question: So... | down | 0.000065 | xrp-up-or-down-september-5-10pm-et | XRP Up or Down - September 5, 10PM ET | 76,107,888 | 76,107,888 |
814ae4bc22de4f5fbdcbab2c5159640144da13ec | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x367d2b2e20310e2fafb4e6a430b42d3eec8273d9b74982cf98dadd040800d063 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.4%? | Event: august-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0017396210447129625
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 14, 2AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-14-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down... | down | 0.000042 | xrp-up-or-down-september-6-6am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 6, 6AM ET | 76,121,593 | 76,121,593 |
0bb906d9b069f017237a6aaef1a99ca8e214bcab | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x66fafc4f9a804259313eb1f93b660727ad530ae2b9b2a81cb5cce170720d9441 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 14, 2AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-14-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 14, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-14-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 1... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-6-5pm-et | Solana Up or Down - September 6, 5PM ET | 76,140,240 | 76,140,240 |
5e2b51d4b9d1c0585b24b664caf6bc952307baf8 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xb9496987943796fff339ea9d6a19a80fce4fff851a01c53533477337233be1a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 14, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-14-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 15... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-10am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 10AM ET | 76,168,764 | 76,168,764 |
1be63309601d0408b4ddfe42c1efffe42825de55 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x76d869b6b10d40e591ac043a4cf6c7ad6c41a45125152efb417334fe67281d12 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 15, 12AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 16... | up | 0.026667 | solana-up-or-down-september-7-7pm-et | Solana Up or Down - September 7, 7PM ET | 76,184,027 | 76,184,027 |
a8d2f474d471d9f1aa72b7a7ba47a841ac464900 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xc7757c5fd837af7abd7e3841f8311cf8811e649f896a8fcffbb0d91223d2ca73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 15, 12AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 16, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-16-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 16, ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-9-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4PM ET | 76,260,274 | 76,260,274 |
f88ae2e1235b456f1579a79e7179e18bda676a44 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0x4297cd1015201c1d55f5b6bb6beb7d21e36410e33346de01a73f095ccee4a0cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 16, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-16-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 16, 7PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-16-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 17, ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-10-12pm-et | Solana Up or Down - September 10, 12PM ET | 76,289,151 | 76,289,151 |
3714200086fbcb8bb3ba8451949d4b0250303937 | 0x331ab85c43da2ab7c71f9678e5886f7328d9d80e | 0xe6f15d0bd27a3c8f0099ce77bcd5652f8dc548223d3cfa00c3ac6d1432c18d6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 16, 7PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-16-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 17, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-17-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 17, 6A... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-12-5am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 12, 5AM ET | 76,354,332 | 76,356,256 |
bb915e2b4bf07d81c99ef1c130231437c4e4ed13 | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0x1c27161c95cb6a3a1403641517c1d79e4e18431f75ad1a9bc1443193b1e1a246 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024?
Event: copa-america-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | copa-america-winner | Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | 59,411,214 | 59,411,214 |
645097cf71fd09899800db428419261fc1d18e4e | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0xea236b37f6ba053c48240dafea9b4b745ce43aebd44d8911df35302d1ac951a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Event: democratic-nominee-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output... | yes | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,986,093 | 60,986,093 |
4ad44e02337303ed6f2d27c07c5df756661f4cca | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0xb9bd873d80852079df0df5133758a477f21566b623519e5d843a8800abf77a39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will France win Gold in ... | yes | 1 | mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Will France win Gold in Men's Basketball? | 60,986,172 | 60,986,172 |
a6c2e10b2ca7f442a26d3ba291b223e8817d1223 | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0x9e9071636d176562592a98dfede865385ba0cff7864cfa01f0479ca6e9e26e1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | no | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,986,179 | 60,986,179 |
5d100e8578f587aeb787bcd657b3a6ebd9d915d4 | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0xd9bba210649703cfe187a3cc2e02949a94462388406426e94e65477ff421cd5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | no | 1 | epl-tottenham-vs-everton | Will Tottenham beat Everton? | 61,003,767 | 61,003,767 |
5e7b428242f8f44f44450985d96510d2ae94ea76 | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0x12ab2929522e7eb01fd7152c9b4de692e2b3e2e41eb1361cf80e3ed5d2b34e56 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | no | 1 | epl-brighton-vs-manchester-united | Will Manchester United beat Brighton? | 61,003,786 | 61,003,786 |
bffbf626ae91b5884916818ccf42e809777c5996 | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0x015cd7131994d936579b5b825efe69cab98e820c1fa884206d04876db8c473ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | no | 1 | us-open-winner-m | Will Novak Djokovic win the US Open? | 61,275,305 | 61,275,305 |
ce013daf8dfce9038e9f850c813e99c395e6ed15 | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0xb3610e5149c4c9169e20af8d613bac4e001de9f98fff132b8dd365e03063c909 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | yes | 1 | epl-brentford-vs-southampton | Will Brentford beat Southampton? | 61,275,323 | 61,275,323 |
2376b2abad31a2bfb62c2f5c56195a309d9d20bb | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0x9f86a6068ce81ec1ecc03b142da27a1659b497b4aaf50a2ac73749d8187ebd85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | yes | 1 | epl-everton-vs-bournemouth | Will Everton beat Bournemouth? | 61,508,551 | 61,508,551 |
7f0f6738a6b197cbb722d2c6083c9cac6f2f2cdd | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0xdc70103c9f6d81bbb4d9c279a7465b61812e1c042c6746d412a65f1d2ca3b3aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | no | 1 | epl-liverpool-vs-brentford | Will Liverpool beat Brentford? | 61,508,551 | 61,508,551 |
7afb0307df0b6e015de48e6f0b087f06b303915f | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0xe5dbabfa342ee224c5e22cf5bbe3d94878f4ae9e2402f9c74c40dd013f6be561 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | no | 1 | epl-wolverhampton-vs-chelsea | Will Chelsea beat Wolverhampton? | 61,508,551 | 61,508,551 |
27991b4867e34a0040a1dd2a021a30a135850ef5 | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0xe337fac56cd72c1320beb0b4809e4976b46c9aae456e1f40dfeb76694ce95a2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | no | 0.404255 | speed-chess-championship-2024 | Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? | 63,402,257 | 63,402,257 |
bff7e5cb0e7fe0650becc963ee2b085bd67ca835 | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0x176a77cf42ce519440f6158703e73dd87bbfda74e145f9402d2d9390d8469f9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | no | 1 | ucl-barcelona-vs-bayern-munich | Will Barcelona beat Bayern Munich? | 63,570,624 | 63,570,624 |
f245f57cc87b7816dad8f5675958b62361869f11 | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0xc52abd3324621de679b76c11dfc9562a9c3382e0aabbf54d527c03229529d020 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | yes | 1 | ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-liverpool | Will RB Leipzig beat Liverpool? | 63,570,624 | 63,570,624 |
505e9052fe6031e4a7a8dcf0eddfebf1fe461b06 | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | no | 0.819316 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,994,399 | 63,994,399 |
4692b9a27f3633f2d27f67a8fe1a52c34ef3f5cd | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0x58e6dabcbe0b32490a7280dfe1c3cce28f10aa76dbae3740c2863742f5fc4679 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | 75,354,170 | 75,354,170 |
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