sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
d2735b13e0c3a096554b7dc5af5d4f8f0faf039d | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0x425d988ea7563e8485191578305794e1b447d611e79e3850bc87f1614f0ff9bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | yes | 1 | lal-rea-mal-2025-08-30 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-08-30? | 76,440,912 | 76,440,912 |
6d18ed48bfddd6f808cfe5ad6b4d20d97129cecd | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0x315bc10cea2926ed706b38c329481c7c7cb341e8aff417019c736347734c5c8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | yes | 1 | lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | 76,478,109 | 76,478,109 |
a4e5ba6f15ae616aad27014ca2e8562fc2528c3e | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0x4a76201df2897be2ae1a8ab7005d073d4bf8c02192a4abf912c29bfdef0c0335 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | yes | 1 | ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | 76,601,288 | 76,601,288 |
c10315432d0dd66a70b96f44071fe205db554953 | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0xa7745cb3b02cdf0f1b73a008924dddcb98217cce0016351a2355955b9da91067 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | no | 1 | ucl-new-bar-2025-09-18 | Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | 76,726,335 | 76,726,335 |
ce62509f1169c9e26ad6a4e2ce23189a8b8b1a67 | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0x46992267801cc03bde3f36afaaca57180f7cfb62f3cd9e9d500b81b938348c09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | yes | 1 | lal-bar-get-2025-09-21 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-21? | 76,742,632 | 76,742,632 |
053316cd1fc708b01c9261af7dee9e993bbd7e4d | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0x4e04063e3c8fab82ca6961ad3e71f3b2c393fd895bf79f644f17afbe37d525a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | yes | 0.99999 | lal-sev-vil-2025-09-23 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-23? | 76,848,544 | 76,848,544 |
3a6d685511a2d92ace6578a5515aacefdf66c4b9 | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0xea83b296e885289ac5a2491a3bbf57d0eef0245515a0d692f29b554bff2dde94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | no | 0.71216 | lal-lev-rea-2025-09-23 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23? | 76,848,544 | 76,848,544 |
66cd02084eaf728a243894efff5d3b618e608eea | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0x3cdaac98e672eb86b4cb3dd806b2308acb7207e907b4ccfbe580ca22c9e4e186 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | yes | 1 | lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | 76,889,675 | 76,889,675 |
4c50f5e358577240a847b56924a31545176a4e54 | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0xc8622b80a382d01315c1bf33bd6d677b45027f103a9fafbc166634895e0e134b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | no | 1 | uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 | Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | 76,889,675 | 76,889,675 |
0dcd83323d3dc2d3ee46c6a570b97f02f09e07c9 | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0x2d53f86232fd5b9fafe921335a3282b1eed3349393bd90cfad3337331423cc5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | yes | 1 | uel-ast-bol-2025-09-25 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-25? | 76,930,247 | 76,930,247 |
4e18564ecceab6449c91961511e9a8af3cc031d5 | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0x37b7cba6b4adf7b98365962ae06d214e67561b9163e3c7754a4b5cc5780d6205 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | yes | 1 | uel-stu-clv-2025-09-25 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-25? | 76,930,247 | 76,930,247 |
e3b43b0108555c35c01916d78961347e3fc0faab | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0x9f37858c746173751213fdf8efaf1a16ad479cdee1b08249fe14a850d6f8a771 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | no | 1 | epl-bre-mun-2025-09-27 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-27? | 76,974,700 | 76,974,700 |
d096c5092fdf752184cac1d7346faf4cef319901 | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0xbbee8afb141183744e6aaf6a51012d309144b6e6dfb801af869be31a1dde5248 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | yes | 1 | sea-cag-int-2025-09-27 | Will Inter win on 2025-09-27? | 76,986,925 | 76,986,925 |
bcc9fc936bab5087d37c8e6500701bcbb972984e | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0xf8958692198732ec86fd6b258ac697bed324eac761826f02e79c6a67792bd8ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | no | 1 | sea-juv-ata-2025-09-27 | Will Juventus win on 2025-09-27? | 76,986,925 | 76,986,925 |
d975159de7c5895058c9dec34166590e87498024 | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0x1bf7c30ba20add13f88f9fb4cfa01ca79d3f1b4abb6cf8f2fb60cbf81010a49f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketb... | no | 1 | epl-new-ars-2025-09-28 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-28? | 77,023,682 | 77,023,682 |
4781d74bd0b3a41edabacd6564d1cf427796b343 | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0x2a466b96d679bc94db4338f8b0c21aaf640cd5cdffb1908762861bf81f0929c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Har... | yes | 1 | lal-bar-rso-2025-09-28 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-28? | 77,023,682 | 77,023,682 |
89e358845089179a53a4b3c0cba603f384433a78 | 0x332a08bb10b803c8108b91c83fbefa2d189333ba | 0x6d51f0ee55c408c6003601c507c74c2a65c6ecce44ee3e2e75a822c2642cf588 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham bea... | yes | 1 | bun-koe-stu-2025-09-28 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-28? | 77,023,682 | 77,023,682 |
5aaf4caa5ac39887ddc8418a2db0d694c037c861 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x7c25cfe207398e1099aafe12fa163d2b53d4a89de4a61f7962c78258e7260697 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election?
Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | 63,104,804 | 63,104,804 |
fd8a27e30ed789af1988b207c45919b62dc0d17e | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x3c9a94239a10378f05d313e73734b77f5976ca24fb65711cc86c99d3800a5013 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election?
Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024
Predict the user's... | yes | 1 | porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | 63,620,170 | 63,620,170 |
bdbd90f43c85a6843d70e526bd49ff81f0ebadfe | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0xbaca4868a18f0075c35330ae1a70637d7f38e02514f4de5a35be022d6ca589f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | 63,620,170 | 63,620,170 |
7806470be357043227def13c79bd7827a2b75492 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x626436e51a9b7486bf356594f29de0c729ae4e88b4c196e58d2eb9cc8d4105f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | 63,835,850 | 63,835,850 |
81e5018409a7c21b6ed52665efede4a679b53f2c | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0xc84158739db6f15f33ad8518b509cd0688baa794209759e628bd025f01927b4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | trump-election-interference-trial-date | Will Trump election interference trial start in September or October? | 63,835,850 | 63,835,850 |
51df5ced4d8d345029405a0e85d5d33bf93ef143 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x1630375788f4a5dd623f97dcf6024614e22430b25742db46a05c47d06f1948dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | louisiana-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Louisiana Presidential Election? | 64,167,728 | 64,167,728 |
a2714a9356f03066d46467bf95b0aa1d7ec5b548 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x55c551896c10a74861f2fd88b4f928694310114704cc74b29b9760d1156cade6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 64,167,728 | 64,167,728 |
dc3525b7997a63c10d0469885d60c15c4a9de2e6 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x78234aafc88ab34b177109a5448cd90d7d1fd4efea1983d19fd67eee78ff0239 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | 1 Trump vs. Harris debate before election? | 64,167,728 | 64,167,728 |
df230cf97ebfcca5564ed07b87972feffd2e15e4 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0xaecb53d3e4e4bfdb0c0f0e959f3ffc7e4a3aa5aa1ef0d0dd663fbf616a5bed23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | sri-lanka-legislative-election | Will the SLPP win the most seats in the 2024 Sri Lankan Parliamentary elections? | 64,766,445 | 64,766,445 |
3085acb9ee5ed79b9709f3a8fd781bbcd3150982 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0xb98ac3c5bf2c1e3d7c1da58f311c2d190828bce0ccc72d91538f212f9a04b5af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-8-15 | Will Elon tweet 150-174 times November 8-15? | 64,766,445 | 64,766,445 |
398d7240ccc74b54ebaf0f6d4aedb4780233ac41 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x10374c401f0dcc7c28a352edd39f2044d1366a31c7b7941b730ff6f20f4b39c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | moana-2-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend? | 65,081,639 | 65,081,639 |
89fe45e67d6f9bb872b18308efcbf4a97b586310 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0xf193ce856c82a53a6041fa94ee29cdc181f0678339e917338ce3bf3a93d4a495 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | mrbeast-x-ronaldo-video-views-on-day-1-nov-30 | Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video between 100m-125m views on day 1? | 65,081,639 | 65,081,639 |
3b3e74752a5f5a01f7492da79535b316fd98b188 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0xf3634462c5eafe367ae61b084fe2f541738cc69bea1db9d2f5ef453fff03b81c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | iceland-legislative-election | Will another party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election? | 65,081,639 | 65,081,639 |
0c6ccef5430a275ef66388a517f9232397d8f1ce | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x18a691efdd2436ee9f5309417e5121fef0f252fe297fcedf9d0e0052ed059e38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | which-state-will-trump-win-by-the-largest-margin | Will Trump win West Virginia by the largest margin? | 65,935,115 | 65,935,115 |
1955882336307902c83af002a5128756cbf3f7ad | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x3189e493d87b09525eced3aaae9bb48a9460cef9aa7e6b1c4ed3c4c2df8ffe6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | 65,935,115 | 65,935,115 |
25296f1ba828719f9d7b4632eac7847a5ceed298 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x31d7fbf8a4b08ea07e3ffa283d9c5acbaaadf247da08a57e9f0795f6f742f4bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | november-unemployment-rate | Will the November unemployment rate be 4.3% or more? | 65,935,115 | 65,935,115 |
dc68ab6060c223c3ebf52f9a97380d9344987577 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x7081f0db40482140b6ad379404ffbe2e5b6ca156fb38a0519d247a298fd10f78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | which-state-will-kamala-win-by-the-largest-margin | Will Kamala Harris win New York by the largest margin? | 65,935,115 | 65,935,115 |
96c7da9e1bb1cf46bef79aff4427310af3f68f70 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x8cdfb8a957b715ffa122cb119baa3676ac6332635a9eeb23ef944bf96a347e1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | november-inflation | Will inflation increase by 2.5% or less in November? | 65,935,115 | 65,935,115 |
4cb5defd3a68a9e9acefeeb76e969ff6baa85ce7 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0xd5fca9b9146866df0df3211bb9008d884a2648e3b15ca6ec51d4a5b50084d9d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | closest-state-in-the-presidential-election | Will New Hampshire be the closest state? | 65,935,115 | 65,935,115 |
660a2f38a6f659fb40a5de5707e0b9492a40e8f2 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0xf1e8d58513d652e1248d2da60d3b35a684362f15a4e9bcd90660ddfd044b16cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | which-3rd-party-candidate-wins-most-votes | Will RFK Jr. get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? | 65,935,115 | 65,935,115 |
999861ae5d4ebb23d2e643ee5c3dbf05f15bc5ea | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x1fef53bdab9975cb89b6c8cde29d0489baab8b582027d7d5343173629e17c2e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | who-will-replace-larry-fink-as-blackrock-ceo | Rachel Lord announced as next BlackRock CEO? | 66,939,829 | 66,939,829 |
8ad5fd147800ba6a6a305036ad761b703a89df22 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0xf80032ad5496e997beb357f01e9fe69382d7c755cde2352eba37410db006c21d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? | 66,939,829 | 66,939,829 |
8ff901b95dd70a2ec5139ac439648e55558184ac | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x230b390604e9dabb86bae6350e621b8a5fffdd8e23487a4e2a761defb1c4ef65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-ireland | Will Helen McEntee be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? | 67,900,755 | 67,900,755 |
cd252c30a40fd33b6175c1ee27db38150280e6c5 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0xb039c08d2a899e7d372d9d82b933e42143373e4742c1134badf9c9a69962960d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | belarus-presidential-election | Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | 67,900,755 | 67,900,755 |
2fa5c91dd5a370ff2e13c034624ef92e73f9bd5f | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0xc52464bdbb6ac043aa79af82901643864cddc1493cf6f1b9d8d3ab49e91af5fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | ecb-interest-rates-march-2025 | ECB increases interest rates after March 2025 meeting? | 69,896,725 | 69,896,725 |
48b76de159ca0252bfe6a05b4a99817e75e92f9e | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x4086e50febbe11f506165b909d973c8ed2db1ee17ac1da347a6de18a3f8d174b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-ontario | Will the People's Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canadian Election? | 71,443,682 | 71,443,682 |
594b821b81ad6a099717ecf7f694cf9b739ef40b | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0xddc778f4e1f001b17cd86762ae466eecf2299bc3d12271a2bf825a9bd9b7dd68 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | 73,851,633 | 73,851,633 |
c8d6a4bdc260039a54ed0f9c52fa7aa9448bcfbd | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0xe8d095422da9f6c3ceed727a4b6251177f618b002d2a698bfccb48716c7aa469 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | 77,633,760 | 77,633,760 |
2c11454bf4180df89edfa69117d7578c2b95bec2 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x5b0b6064dac363b15041ef67b78fd5a48eb6279cb3c54be51d3edd6cb83b736a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | cof-cri-nca-2025-10-13 | Will Nicaragua win on 2025-10-13? | 77,724,543 | 77,724,543 |
596af96525ef6a5ee470bb1a41dce3ddd5120558 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x694ebab565484f69546d6018fcc73807192da18ac4ffe0e6f7efa1d613b8047a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | efa-wor1-fgr-2025-10-13 | Will Worthing FC vs. Forest Green Rovers FC end in a draw? | 77,724,543 | 77,724,543 |
5e06fbe36bd9f13ce3590f8d53897d5027706d14 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x6b2ad9e435d5f13bf86abc5997a29835b75e751e967b54b8aa3f65f098f2d3d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lutero Simango win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | cof-hnd-hai-2025-10-13 | Will Haiti win on 2025-10-13? | 77,724,543 | 77,724,543 |
71cec82f080a656d710c1a0471d81bc466e3e120 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x8037848a76d6eb38c1be061c56e23dadce57d756d20b671810d47ed5339f6530 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | cof-hnd-hai-2025-10-13 | Will Honduras vs. Haiti end in a draw? | 77,724,543 | 77,724,543 |
5baa76fce316dd4fc787f7a4e87fabccfedb9455 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x87a985deae6cee6fdbb146899b497fb645b58e78d6259860247c59a49d759320 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no... | no | 1 | cof-cri-nca-2025-10-13 | Will Costa Rica vs. Nicaragua end in a draw? | 77,724,543 | 77,724,543 |
0f6f240d86919f94500ec3b5ab37e427acd2d7ec | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0x911d080727d21dabb54d80eed03d55f74c6327a335715f72170417db8fdb3dc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump election interference trial start in September or October? | Event: trump-election-interfere... | yes | 1 | cof-hnd-hai-2025-10-13 | Will Honduras win on 2025-10-13? | 77,724,543 | 77,724,543 |
371a21cfc47fc3fcc1afcac4882062bb085e2a96 | 0x3332dc3a4001279924425b6def6823ba1312a088 | 0xb36e8b86cfb5bd0ff8bc6f7d849f48c085ec24600c436d05606ffdeca606c70f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump election interference trial start in September or October? | Event: trump-election-interference-trial-date | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Louisiana Presidential Election? | Event: louisiana-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | efa-wor1-fgr-2025-10-13 | Will Worthing FC win on 2025-10-13? | 77,724,543 | 77,724,543 |
6b8616c111b4921dd47977e52d4c263c20d2fed1 | 0x335bb47a053a50036a9b8c825b49c52a82708114 | 0xe337fac56cd72c1320beb0b4809e4976b46c9aae456e1f40dfeb76694ce95a2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship?
Event: speed-chess-championship-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | speed-chess-championship-2024 | Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? | 61,773,756 | 61,773,756 |
366a2692f0fe48a49c663e100c7f37ecdffd1383 | 0x335bb47a053a50036a9b8c825b49c52a82708114 | 0xa55563595fe48a9f5d59effd74149ca9d914bb27f3705fb0ad9e0a75d614e39b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? | Event: speed-chess-championship-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Brighton?
Event: epl-brighton-vs-ipswich-town
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output st... | yes | 1 | epl-brighton-vs-ipswich-town | Will Ipswich Town beat Brighton? | 62,457,648 | 62,457,648 |
04971b7d4802396625271feb7b9b31e19bb6705a | 0x335bb47a053a50036a9b8c825b49c52a82708114 | 0x9e3e977e490922b6cee1ec183356bb905afd182c2f9f0dd5594b49830f7549e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? | Event: speed-chess-championship-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Tottenham beat Arsenal... | yes | 1 | epl-tottenham-vs-arsenal | Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | 62,457,660 | 62,457,660 |
bec8e72356e1e7fe254bbef289f6728f5a19e336 | 0x335bb47a053a50036a9b8c825b49c52a82708114 | 0x221633a763d607ac24cb5d16fff0e4f8ccf5b44898c5ffa6414408593447646b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? | Event: speed-chess-championship-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | Event: ep... | no | 1 | epl-aston-villa-vs-everton | Will Aston Villa beat Everton? | 62,457,663 | 62,457,663 |
2ed0244ac14fd4b6fa7111d80dfd557b06ecbb3a | 0x335bb47a053a50036a9b8c825b49c52a82708114 | 0x4a3328c5694bd12f861a912c2ac568be91fde0fb9e226d48b5f35595e6684345 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? | Event: speed-chess-championship-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | Event: ep... | no | 1 | epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | 62,457,665 | 62,457,665 |
7ffe39716f101f39dacaa552414520d4b68eaa81 | 0x335bb47a053a50036a9b8c825b49c52a82708114 | 0x7959743a6cdc75590cb7bd829690667f4401cb7113b541a5b30af9a676f07327 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? | Event: speed-chess-championship-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | Event: ep... | yes | 1 | epl-wolverhampton-vs-newcastle | Will Wolverhampton beat Newcastle? | 62,457,671 | 62,457,671 |
ab35428f4183fd829cc040cda75e87eaa7750a26 | 0x335bb47a053a50036a9b8c825b49c52a82708114 | 0xb33648da9f84b5a25223feb907ef14e37f0722fdcfa6a29bbae1bea80fe89851 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? | Event: speed-chess-championship-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | Event: ep... | yes | 1 | epl-fulham-vs-west-ham | Will Fulham beat West Ham? | 62,457,674 | 62,457,674 |
65b40216c6f4500d271976d31ab8fbebf08006cf | 0x335bb47a053a50036a9b8c825b49c52a82708114 | 0x7ade8b93914ae38b2fc95cba3e6796667b838add5f06ee2dc97b812fbd464c32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? | Event: speed-chess-championship-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | Event: ep... | yes | 1 | eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | 63,316,576 | 63,316,576 |
be261401ab1d040a7c4c4f4f70bbee649ddac3b6 | 0x335bb47a053a50036a9b8c825b49c52a82708114 | 0x8c8e9f651cc6632e046c45dd5644ba3f785fe4f75aea55677e68d69e94aaa225 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? | Event: speed-chess-championship-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | Event: ep... | yes | 1 | epl-southampton-vs-manchester-united | Will Manchester United beat Southampton? | 63,316,576 | 63,316,576 |
6270df64226b3c2730a26e798f29ba065f3e0527 | 0x335bb47a053a50036a9b8c825b49c52a82708114 | 0xc51495a709e23a553486a2e1bf469967b166d69b5ee12b5878d8d987e7b291f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? | Event: speed-chess-championship-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | Event: ep... | no | 1 | epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | 63,316,576 | 63,316,576 |
7ad6fa2de5f724a68eb39bf8e19c0da3cff68b78 | 0x335bb47a053a50036a9b8c825b49c52a82708114 | 0xd80d8a471b427fa0d2036edcce51427d075c2e0490fd4f30eba56c9b3b483dc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? | Event: speed-chess-championship-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | Event: ep... | yes | 1 | epl-crystal-palace-vs-leicester-city | Will Crystal Palace vs. Leicester City end in a draw? | 63,316,576 | 63,316,576 |
f9a49e8f2a4ad7ddc405eac51799830325d2978e | 0x335bb47a053a50036a9b8c825b49c52a82708114 | 0xffd304f794ccaf0865b3439a9896b913f6b67cd80a8232b90995c1d677abdafe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? | Event: speed-chess-championship-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | Event: ep... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? | 70,172,046 | 70,172,046 |
f141d38f5238b15ffcf1edc457dfa2790fc3a5f1 | 0x335bb47a053a50036a9b8c825b49c52a82708114 | 0x8dda18bfbec16ad1f02c968b89a826f809b573856e5def881adb34386d118b31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? | Event: speed-chess-championship-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | Event: ep... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? | 70,482,338 | 70,482,338 |
99b0c6b0da4967b720b015f03fd7cb02f4493f79 | 0x335bb47a053a50036a9b8c825b49c52a82708114 | 0xe06ed0ab182fe84601b9b7e92ee1e02d8c75ff67aea99599b423232d9a135448 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? | Event: speed-chess-championship-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | Event: ep... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-11-18-628 | Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 11–18? | 70,482,338 | 70,482,338 |
ee04e1a33a8c70d277302862cbbaa67552c5d506 | 0x335bb47a053a50036a9b8c825b49c52a82708114 | 0x8a1df6477891e2930b016ea88fe751068d08686e8eef82bae1542fef9e7e667d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? | Event: speed-chess-championship-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | Event: ep... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-18-25 | Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 18–25? | 70,628,533 | 70,628,533 |
14af5975ddbda5962843c8a57aaef6d6995ed391 | 0x335bb47a053a50036a9b8c825b49c52a82708114 | 0x3c4473df79641d4ee8e9a27ce68a2bf25ef84ead70611f8cae2ec1c7b4d51e34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? | Event: speed-chess-championship-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | Event: ep... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-ast-2025-04-22 | Will Manchester City vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? | 72,064,869 | 72,064,869 |
4de5b46db8d6e8376b10f1f21b901edb7af5aa45 | 0x335bb47a053a50036a9b8c825b49c52a82708114 | 0xbcddb82cce4acb9832939e525321b472607bf0d8e3ab379f5c9ceebdeb342545 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? | Event: speed-chess-championship-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | Event: ep... | yes | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-april-25 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.9% on April 25? | 72,064,869 | 72,064,869 |
62cf1702966bf6e7337c0986a56a8a9eb7630a28 | 0x335bb47a053a50036a9b8c825b49c52a82708114 | 0xffdd774123c13df21ce755bfd4f65bde47a74f1377ea73c8b130d84c59831173 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? | Event: speed-chess-championship-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | Event: ep... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-june | No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? | 73,558,923 | 73,558,923 |
1345ffda46e27607df6bd7c32a033649cd678568 | 0x335bb47a053a50036a9b8c825b49c52a82708114 | 0x750657aa48181a8d2ce3122826ff6f87968d3ece1976789391131767ac69e9dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? | Event: speed-chess-championship-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | Event: ep... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 77,096,203 | 77,096,203 |
50a3b11fd2f6eb72fc457e712079c7f80900b25b | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0x73330cf905c4bf224e09f9f38cfcf642a74601885b5e1e303a52f8ee02e8f3ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25?
Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | 78,170,535 | 78,170,535 |
e1645195b58d21309de096ec001c20877ea03162 | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0x295cd0ffba29923f782248b871ce751cda3bb0d6363d9f61e856b09bbb3b466e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election?
Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election
Predict the user's choice and confidence fo... | no | 1 | turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | 78,189,929 | 78,189,929 |
ea6a9107cb6c4ec22f48f9cbd945f6506bc4098e | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0x234c745474a30bee05c6809d8703a97f546e03b458de6721d9c88d3f5db0d529 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question... | no | 1 | of-views-of-mrbeasts-i-saved-1000-animals-from-dying-video-on-day-1 | Will MrBeast's animal charity video get between 18–21 million views on day 1? | 78,202,717 | 78,202,717 |
15cda0ed3884148354a229529ce4627a7c4cf0fe | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0x30c912080ba7a3062bdb4bb087a958269f8abeb9979a6dd25eac255f572da7f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeas... | no | 1 | of-views-of-mrbeasts-i-saved-1000-animals-from-dying-video-on-day-1 | Will MrBeast's animal charity video get less than 15 million views on day 1? | 78,202,717 | 78,202,717 |
98cfe10d66819b6b5edd9244bff5ecbb7c566132 | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0x4e106e0808bddfff5ef23f0c79a10145e63eb97c23fbc1327115071eb25531e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeas... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-mrbeasts-i-saved-1000-animals-from-dying-video-on-day-1 | Will MrBeast's animal charity video get 21 million or more views on day 1? | 78,202,717 | 78,202,717 |
792e3b24bdc158bc51597ce49ab806b036506c75 | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0x79a90061e0b3d81085c2ed19761b89405d6f59fb91aa4a6515d4d34030cd562a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeas... | no | 1 | of-views-of-mrbeasts-i-saved-1000-animals-from-dying-video-on-day-1 | Will MrBeast's animal charity video get between 15–18 million views on day 1? | 78,202,717 | 78,202,717 |
d4655705288f488c317eb7930b115316a340d7ea | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0xf21fa02ef79ac3e83a32c5ecafeca8ce5629609ba1773d9cc69e39b04f66bfa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeas... | no | 1 | over-1pt8b-committed-to-the-megaeth-public-sale | Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | 78,425,481 | 78,425,481 |
5af75f2abfe217b0f6609e08ba32f82ba4eb1ddc | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0x2920e449f20bd3288dd708132f5ff19f34b0fb855d525d1fe142c3f6b311d7fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeas... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? | 78,508,733 | 78,508,733 |
2ad40599e9577d6bbf28cf5521376857c4851ee9 | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0x59c54dd8130a4f534a0d82adf48b2aff2b6488cd4094bf11f5b85756c27f5d23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeas... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1? | 78,508,733 | 78,508,733 |
dfffe943e0853b460cb54e2d57f1af5d349c33ab | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0xeaf9e4ed256c1bb22c4c165a02c5aea59738fb48b6e674c3ad8818e382889dfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeas... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | 78,508,733 | 78,508,733 |
55772124721be87dc2ccacb259cf70f81239a8d7 | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0x6bfd7ec44fc948c0f0c34fbff20863c5763cd2f792a492d398c6f26de8975c9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeas... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on November 5? | 78,689,680 | 78,689,680 |
570786b34a06a56d928d7b172ccb859daccdab55 | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0x8581d02dbdcd59fac4439c0df7d9174ed27d37e993647a423da36872f4d0a3c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeas... | no | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? | 78,789,285 | 78,789,285 |
c6c4c2722c961632451691253d61c229c43ef8ab | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0xdeb549335d3dce7405d11b1f7cdb879ad6f087b3792eeb639156a39066286dbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeas... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-8 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on November 8? | 78,789,285 | 78,789,285 |
498aaf4464b7f93e92a0583892db09adbd9e8fa4 | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0x4ca0f980470f4b614bed01c52a5d38428297b390b2db497475744394b594a2aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeas... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on November 11? | 78,898,978 | 78,898,978 |
26139375ab3f514236559c9f9716939c0fcba685 | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0xe260b8a19d94c685a7fd8d3b904f7e767444c0aa5a00c64363e831f6f372e436 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeas... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on November 12? | 78,939,181 | 78,939,181 |
022819568bfb96a2bef3c13bb4daa32d06858de0 | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0x077fc0c447abfc7e094713e86d62acc20480560a6eb60bfbfc86a1c5f00b9339 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeas... | yes | 1 | what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the government shutdown end November 12? | 79,021,183 | 79,021,183 |
42fb52e17409b60d9e68d23f7aebc23585c23cdd | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0x04a1462e83c415194ac700181bd97f97db149fdcfa4fd3fef745795cfe3ad975 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeas... | yes | 1 | chile-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election? | 79,143,306 | 79,143,306 |
e9899d96cc782f98d33b7d5fde7eee155fdd3d52 | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0x155c34007fe7ff10419c3677947d9fb8e19aadceb9d4a875e48074753eb766ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeas... | yes | 1 | fif-mar-uga-2025-11-18 | Will Morocco win on 2025-11-18? | 79,203,140 | 79,203,140 |
25b0009a4fe27454b961539eded976ccef6e826a | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0x2708cbcb7ad265632ba575004d3668b775a450f7db9e13d4898b54802adbe9dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeas... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-377 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? | 79,411,906 | 79,411,906 |
c452eb708693a5ae169f3f64b1a517a91129f71e | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0x3b9b8fd81f860e8aa51ae1b9c6a2fff7bf81f005669237583689379247720ad6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeas... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-377 | Will MrBeast's next video get 55 million or more views on day 1? | 79,415,500 | 79,415,500 |
7e57f1d3d1521db600dad6433212f541f7573ae8 | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0xea785aa46c4a6c6d732dc530e13fc9c9bbd2f41f2751e0a2dcaf1c2bc2c33087 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeas... | yes | 1 | pltr-week-november-28-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) close at >$164 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | 79,661,009 | 79,661,009 |
0c357c0f191594e1b1ed5e37e8ee6c2209a84ad5 | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0x5fe7392548e97e6e217a47aadf0351a473eadb66d0a166ff47e10c6d2069713a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeas... | no | 1 | of-views-of-mrbeasts-worlds-fastest-man-vs-robot-video-on-week-1 | Will MrBeast's robot race video get between 65 and 70 million views on week 1? | 79,672,187 | 79,672,187 |
69e8dea2ac85bd5526d87f63bf23e8a2cea85a38 | 0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91 | 0x7ccc6eb5951c840312a16dd29d9ee92a9ae073eea046b6e13cd26108454257de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeas... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-759 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | 79,672,187 | 79,672,187 |
81ad665f3923b54333802b7dc7c4168aad6eba89 | 0x3464114bc389eed31c954b5fe20f87bd9f119a3d | 0x80ea0eb4ffa67e75eb4705ea39753152a593d3772403221474d1cef838efc7f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | down | 0.000099 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | 73,555,648 | 73,555,648 |
0ffdb5726b7e40849273c76d6026d033abe95022 | 0x3464114bc389eed31c954b5fe20f87bd9f119a3d | 0xe1c51e8a2a30531068461c12408d47c0531d5b8ac254979f05d0054c451691c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.8581427689375e-05
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market.... | down | 0.000022 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | 73,567,057 | 73,567,057 |
6b9c887886e097da63389a6ed2f07208bd5acc23 | 0x3464114bc389eed31c954b5fe20f87bd9f119a3d | 0xc17abe267b9cd0ae52e59bae64ef89def7eb7c30c8ed9ba6f767a3a503985d95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.8581427689375e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.1845676602141923e-05
Target market:
Questio... | up | 0.000055 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 10PM ET | 73,591,655 | 73,591,655 |
01deda3cfd7b628db8ef020d5cb499a47d6fd42b | 0x3464114bc389eed31c954b5fe20f87bd9f119a3d | 0xe6603b9e038d6b8f49ae3577d299aa0de6bef1f7c55d2032c25152d6f0df4805 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.8581427689375e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.1845676602141923e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-5-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 1AM ET | 73,597,051 | 73,597,051 |
7fd487c41d0e98f40208b8b502e7a1d5e2dddb75 | 0x3464114bc389eed31c954b5fe20f87bd9f119a3d | 0xb0a639797a259ea1609b6cda1c29c91c7a72ed0690b90eed57b9004930f64088 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.8581427689375e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.1845676602141923e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-5-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 2AM ET | 73,598,715 | 73,598,715 |
6745514d9094d26c426e3a2f743e208ec7d53365 | 0x3464114bc389eed31c954b5fe20f87bd9f119a3d | 0xc9bb0024162bf83f6defa82fe70d63b8e32d0c02da7c084344064fe1f2344c83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.8581427689375e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.1845676602141923e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-5-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 4AM ET | 73,601,769 | 73,604,184 |
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