sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7122267e1a5346a7adc8273aec6fc9a8f6bf4e3e | 0x3464114bc389eed31c954b5fe20f87bd9f119a3d | 0x77d78144e0b600777863d1d70ee384250628d834d216f5e5576f7e4ad3476efb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.8581427689375e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.1845676602141923e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-5-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 5AM ET | 73,603,380 | 73,611,927 |
6eb97eec356dbfb6d05d272d5309f182b465ea9b | 0x3464114bc389eed31c954b5fe20f87bd9f119a3d | 0xff3589a9b22f5b19056da4192d1d2b8aab6eb3fadd1e8bc5dc8a62e87088d21c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.8581427689375e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.1845676602141923e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-5-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 11PM ET | 73,633,962 | 73,634,448 |
6846f0501c1c0ac24f872e11ef6722fead06b0f2 | 0x3464114bc389eed31c954b5fe20f87bd9f119a3d | 0xc07e1417a9d41b8f8b4b846c7c7a40b4b0950524075cc2b287189bcad011db73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.8581427689375e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.1845676602141923e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | down | 0.000003 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-6-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 12AM ET | 73,635,480 | 73,635,761 |
735bd2f0498a38c2991ab8ce4f0976f36e8b8c5a | 0x3464114bc389eed31c954b5fe20f87bd9f119a3d | 0xefd35282e6e6351ea88b8ddd89d94d0db0bdfc7b5cd9a44c9a67856efc0e3b78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.8581427689375e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.1845676602141923e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | down | 0.000026 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-6-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 3AM ET | 73,640,032 | 73,642,280 |
10f326522e38da8821fc5d598c194750b0205908 | 0x3464114bc389eed31c954b5fe20f87bd9f119a3d | 0x0baf5e29dfb25ac732fdc8c531cca733f913385b6223302be440887475987409 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.8581427689375e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.1845676602141923e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-6-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 4AM ET | 73,642,577 | 73,642,577 |
eb5a73b153fde02a3ec05644a4d276123ee40007 | 0x3464114bc389eed31c954b5fe20f87bd9f119a3d | 0xc3ce4af92a1f250f67e651ccc317a08d811ed3fa35b32d7cc61c7cecc374da4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.8581427689375e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.1845676602141923e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | down | 0.000072 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-6-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 5AM ET | 73,645,244 | 73,645,244 |
6087046f3889ef1e97d9ebb87041c1392f926cb6 | 0x3464114bc389eed31c954b5fe20f87bd9f119a3d | 0xc1237c407963ac1778eae71f2ba1318755e538e75f0324bb11f63b4189635625 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.8581427689375e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.1845676602141923e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | down | 0.000013 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-6-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 9AM ET | 73,650,714 | 73,650,714 |
a85891fe1541746c0e99d7ac27d9c2320d249c08 | 0x3464114bc389eed31c954b5fe20f87bd9f119a3d | 0x0d8dc2e93b25b96a3fafce97c6d9bb6682dde0a89e7cff28a9ca0aa64a5c62de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.8581427689375e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.1845676602141923e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-6-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 10AM ET | 73,652,269 | 73,652,743 |
c4504289afad134d41c5ca3f1bde44778dc37f5c | 0x3464114bc389eed31c954b5fe20f87bd9f119a3d | 0x370eaf838967971401eff999e13c4b62f59b90520cae4b0d4de49a415d340f3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.8581427689375e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.1845676602141923e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-6-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 11PM ET | 73,675,280 | 73,833,922 |
f4cc3bfb38b98859ae0db63ab2dbfe89e84407ec | 0x3464114bc389eed31c954b5fe20f87bd9f119a3d | 0x1dbbcc59f2954ba791b27a82baa01d6661a7e78a6286435f86106ff56562d839 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.8581427689375e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.1845676602141923e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | down | 0.000024 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-7-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 4AM ET | 73,682,974 | 73,683,983 |
252b222a300557d67164765f1c4b21a566a7ef0b | 0x3464114bc389eed31c954b5fe20f87bd9f119a3d | 0xe571d90ae5786c0ac4629d87e6ea4048e46c1cfc5dc895d23fd8c11c5369e12e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.8581427689375e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.1845676602141923e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-17-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 11PM ET | 74,094,213 | 74,094,213 |
4a4bfe42494ab0ec7ef6ded9c569622760bd80b3 | 0x3464114bc389eed31c954b5fe20f87bd9f119a3d | 0xcc85458c95e8cadaea2f8d6c922324f78b32ff343a10700e21933e954e2d01ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.8581427689375e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.1845676602141923e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-19-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 3AM ET | 74,142,311 | 74,145,757 |
affcdc856f0900b61b92ed4b74a97771c1cc4f93 | 0x3464114bc389eed31c954b5fe20f87bd9f119a3d | 0x5192585df757c47fa98dae69eca81532115cee69c0ce1e41bc6299ddcd73a06d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.8581427689375e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.1845676602141923e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-19-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 4AM ET | 74,143,649 | 74,145,757 |
f3026ea938c59ace3d7ab0820862363328fc8793 | 0x3464114bc389eed31c954b5fe20f87bd9f119a3d | 0x0320e753efd3bb455a4bb4625dca95a1b2af36f0f9da2a0331b5d03ba0aff199 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.8581427689375e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.1845676602141923e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | up | 0.000053 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-19-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 5AM ET | 74,145,414 | 74,145,414 |
1a3fc47730d95cbcacfb673a0610b780b9c7dead | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x1c4a876957f0c70fb3a579d714c1c125bf14bcc0a6d47073115a1855cd4dd9ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 64,133,123 | 64,133,123 |
d68b4873d0128f6e4cfffb809170ba058a4eaaa7 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x661a6d0e875ac492ff936bbe61b899ef0dd48f44936f33438720d484fdfcbc7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election?
Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024
Pre... | yes | 1 | new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | 64,133,123 | 64,133,123 |
b03bcb6f7fa4cf20ba45fc2e13e43b7427f84c4b | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x9be6760eca88434624ecb3e9dbf3b1ff161c630559c52d80b2b23b8efbcd43bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 64,133,123 | 64,133,123 |
3a25075f97dfc31f07dde6f81dd03e75d98f1872 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xac7162f96876ea602d984de6f9800b8a4b8a45897e798a7630d9e004ae5b9a0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election? | 64,401,779 | 64,401,779 |
7f21c35a99706610c92d27e5f9a69f1f402e6e83 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xb17631413f217b33763f011a61990dd420f760af13bba6cdccd68c52b2b72d4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | 64,401,779 | 64,401,779 |
b622a64d1c54923e917f8bd0d7f7f4bb368fb349 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xc84c3451df32872d1167afe34c2406a6161bad495ec4732b37aee87074b9d06a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.35-1.39°C? | 65,355,886 | 65,355,886 |
fe6b1e430f79053265ae3b219c3c4cb0cdb7e228 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x7394923d12fa66cdb7402620cceff99b33fc1f3c8f52159970cae9e7318c3e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | of-votes-for-impeachment-in-south-korea | <180 MPs vote to impeach Yoon? | 65,359,229 | 65,368,133 |
376c7420b43458023aa1e90f7bd2457fd13b8d1d | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x13e09b4c7edb4e87f337849ba46e1daccdab2ea491681ec61886263f446647c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-13 | Will Ding Liren win Game 13 of the World Chess Championship? | 65,364,379 | 65,364,379 |
34ccad09b7c1d3fefb1d30c769582cda55760575 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x8e637d4f7aecdcdfa95470e8c24c02d27152e3253cb5e676675f27178f570313 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | ucl-stuttgart-vs-young-boys | Will Stuttgart beat Young Boys? | 65,383,488 | 65,383,488 |
0bef6461811161396deb7fbf4b62522344a95fbe | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x6972c70dcc013803ddffa4205845bb165f58e65145e7e9aeffbb1c07720726a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-14 | Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | 65,399,270 | 65,399,270 |
90198f1113f6a7807f60129bf8bd391d3ec0c789 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xffb205b09d71b892464d543c8c62a5b01a1cd31d721056db6806525d399db018 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | luigi-mangione-extradited-to-new-york-in | Luigi Mangione extradited to New York in January? | 65,719,439 | 65,719,439 |
327deb4aaff0d7218fc0f4c2c06144569b961c7f | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x32689488020e7e8c5f93ed95ffced589e7a149016a1185bf806a98fdda51f999 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | luigi-mangione-extradited-to-new-york-in | Luigi Mangione extradited to New York in February? | 65,719,448 | 65,719,448 |
ab637c84e9741d8f8cbe43cea7cfe161f4b3fc02 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x378c1a4dd829a4407e59513089bce961cb21e45d5b6e7d99114da332862a1d44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | croatia-presidential-election | Will Ivana Kekin be the next President of Croatia? | 66,930,628 | 66,930,628 |
1b9521004a7646402eee177ef4752cc433e5d5bd | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xc4502bfced0566b1366dd23dc250dca62b40660ca7f01a46310e68ee6e52ea6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | of-votes-for-impeachment-in-south-korea | <180 MPs vote to impeach Yoon? | 66,930,628 | 66,930,628 |
13db40f14328b046f56e577619aba1b85b34b10c | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xdc6217bfb7b370163f7c427d693d5610bb00c1e767edaaa18d428a7aaf950837 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | who-will-replace-marco-rubio-as-florida-senator | Will Lara Trump be appointed as the next Florida senator? | 67,015,541 | 67,015,541 |
12d56e82bdd8bc142eb5251674d54b90294310b3 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xd5d78bf6c2d33aac6ccbd2b7230a2cabae46ef72349164f699e6aba82d43dc63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | ucl-arsenal-vs-dinamo-zagreb | Will Arsenal beat Dinamo Zagreb? | 67,046,717 | 67,046,717 |
8b0df52b2336c6ce76ee1333d101811bcbdb1528 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x9ec6b7cb02792e332483682c75571d86f810132be1d924e2e574876926fb7ceb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | uel-bodo-glimt-vs-maccabi-tlv | Will Bodo Glimt beat Maccabi TLV? | 67,299,194 | 67,299,194 |
a4c3abfbdb0957733415370bd2bf59b96771d9c5 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x2dd885d675bd581b539c65046bb73d41f03a9f136104ca19d2d60f4c3845f373 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-february | Will Donald Trump sign 28-29 executive orders in February? | 68,592,500 | 68,592,500 |
4889f39d2bf72e963d1347f562b4ec9fa4eae5e2 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xda07fc8d30d43fa7140f87d87132dc76631de2a6c9ad3243f3f53709ebbe63f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | how-many-viewers-will-trumps-address-to-congress-get | Will Trump's 2025 joint address get >46m viewers? | 68,710,221 | 68,710,221 |
3660b5860aa476aae332daaf4efedf99dbd2e82a | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x845afc0daac64d1d5d955e39b3c4763c271b90c13d84593479b9fbe7b794030b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-7 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Mar 7? | 68,796,313 | 68,796,313 |
fff2f0ddb6de7780c27cad6ff4098fbf0d63ff34 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x5f060d4e55f2bff3b50212beb080beaf6623e440b096aa60301d49b61cf82cfb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? | 69,046,163 | 69,046,163 |
19e8a42c0a7177784fd6ab804de18b17a715471e | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xa71e9fe445379ccfc4404edc5c215e4c9ab4175ef439b746fcb50b5910ccdde6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | cducsu-of-vote-in-german-election | Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election? | 69,046,163 | 69,046,163 |
918b9adeb4c22a78e3d95280ecf0261588e1b6f4 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x8102ba4ce899d9dd0cbfbfa3a74e11141bb6d561797f80e51fc017cd654922bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-tot-2025-03-16 | Will Fulham win on 2025-03-16? | 69,132,729 | 69,132,729 |
f5e42da6049bd3f8234ff5001424bbec9dd456c1 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xe667de9434da5c1fa9915f88ba82fc957e05c5f19624648d96856a3d36799d2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? | 69,318,439 | 69,318,439 |
65349d4995f8c7a9fb30497820446506434beaae | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xeb6109448ac73085c12e4c1024e84218def5d8eaaa957b9353ff2a39e5f5a017 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | what-will-elon-say-during-baier-interview | Will Elon say "Education" during Baier interview on Thursday? | 69,635,573 | 69,635,573 |
b8e393223cd815c7dd696201c2c95a7f1e27f5ba | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x3f2b3a183c9621537c0bdac0ac774a63d037b5e58320d68a95755c1dd766c905 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-09? | 70,132,923 | 70,132,923 |
032147e59a10eab5e4a50efdf32a445e5f9bd5a2 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x98c75430c8fdd32f267276d15ecee554bf75adc2f45e061443a8df87d76e07e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | freestyle-chess-grand-slam-paris-winner | Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris? | 70,302,743 | 70,302,743 |
96b93959701138c53b22af22c2098b8d4b46884d | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x193d72bef3538b3c02661374385989ec750871f24b05466d818629de5c08a4a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | fl-1-special-election-jimmy-patronis-margin-of-victory | Will Jimmy Patronis win by more than 35%? | 70,385,470 | 70,385,470 |
2dd8f3ee30dd7f8bb174dba854963df875299ca8 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x63f5acf77373e7c97a8270644ea8c88968a2a8e392f7e73fff3a196d234da935 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | uel-fra-tot-2025-04-17 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-04-17? | 70,533,322 | 70,533,322 |
eb4c95310381cff6d9e4f17a4a4e37d4cb376e93 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xd7493643e6c8873a621b2697b1285a76792579afaade17dad2e2ae75b08443dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | uel-ath-ran-2025-04-17 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-04-17? | 70,533,322 | 70,533,322 |
8622c12b08842aa40058b685321b484e09f3f9c8 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xdbbd124da6523be3c2332ddc5e4c42f1d808adbeafc9a9e555cff71b2119e622 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | ucl-rma-ars-2025-04-16 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-16? | 70,533,322 | 70,533,322 |
908a09d5be55f109587cc8094e5db74b70ce159d | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x94a5acfd9748a4623acc69f58e67564d00620e25703b139bd8cdcdd0cd97e1fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | 71,159,646 | 71,159,646 |
a83f728261270c3733d823ebf6da149514bdb88d | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xffb8295483d1dfc5b9558e79fe7c83e96ebd850c3a5f2379b9c5876f5ec4dc01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | ucl-int-bar-2025-05-06 | Will Inter win on 2025-05-06? | 71,231,710 | 71,231,710 |
c2e689b042e55a2e1e02c97a9de807d309b692d9 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x3ea4ec25d0491fa7c374ed61762ec9d604c52b56df0d8c5f30ccdb71a838bc1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the November 20... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | 71,802,594 | 71,802,594 |
133712b0b866602b3ea0da1f5f5e6aef318e8876 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xfb6268e2f40d8a59d1320117d20e11ba8547273641205de1ca446f40f90cd913 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.35-1.39°C? | Event: november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Greece win Eurovision 2025? | 71,802,594 | 71,802,594 |
dfaf01a1cb9d107547219e8fa8b99741dd4e30b1 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xff09e179f1732c49d15c6465cf68ad82904e5025a27712a2b3f30e7413705b1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.35-1.39°C? | Event: november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: <180 MPs vote to impeach Yoon? | Event: of-votes-for-impeachment-in-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ding ... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-portugal-election-2025 | Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election? | 71,802,594 | 71,802,594 |
2687ea1c54c3f3b241b546778311fc693225981c | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x4d2ef73506b82c190f3d47ed7e3e7b02a375b454e11bb931699b8ba93cdb0db2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: <180 MPs vote to impeach Yoon? | Event: of-votes-for-impeachment-in-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ding Liren win Game 13 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stuttgart beat Yo... | no | 1 | uel-tot-mun-2025-05-21 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-21? | 72,164,972 | 72,164,972 |
f7463d9712670b8a9610f0eb33b035cc0d17654b | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xb1d3425f59ceae2850755ae4f4c5c0d8cb46f4446e3fd191ee4077e0527202f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ding Liren win Game 13 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Stuttgart beat Young Boys? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-young-boys | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 1... | yes | 1 | 2025-french-open-winner | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open? | 72,700,176 | 72,700,176 |
7a88b0a0e4d8dc6168788c9a9c73d055aafaacb3 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x5844c062cef913e0d160a5076e6dce75a0e92d5c00e7703ea5e5a77c1b256043 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stuttgart beat Young Boys? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-young-boys | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Luigi Mangione extradited... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | 72,894,415 | 72,894,415 |
34ab30474d1d23e4c3d69237165463a4ca1bed57 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x989b4664c6b3500bfa03f723c15988179e7ca682c9881455d9a55d9634396f73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Luigi Mangione extradited to New York in January? | Event: luigi-mangione-extradited-to-new-york-in | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-fc-porto | Will Inter Miami beat FC Porto? | 72,991,773 | 72,991,773 |
177b5550a17e62bbd03e8b0b29a5fed9a9010ed6 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xae29802bce9554e80174d101cca03124d0e23d7c3c312a1b9dbd03075ab0e045 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Luigi Mangione extradited to New York in January? | Event: luigi-mangione-extradited-to-new-york-in | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Luigi Mangione extradited to New York in February? | Event: luigi-mangione-extradited-to-new-york-in | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-rb-salzburg-vs-al-hilal | Will Al Hilal beat RB Salzburg? | 73,116,433 | 73,116,433 |
f0ebe037bcaa673353df87a3f968f61f234df8d3 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x78aa3d68b19c44dacfbe5b9fb0b6c54c14992c11d0a3d78f5ee54797457ca9e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Luigi Mangione extradited to New York in February? | Event: luigi-mangione-extradited-to-new-york-in | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ivana Kekin be the next President of Croatia? | Event: croatia-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: <180 MPs vot... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-palmeiras | Will Palmeiras beat Inter Miami? | 73,168,100 | 73,168,100 |
b1b9cc11dfc979815e6d500fe9e920828ceb2d99 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x1f213ba698ab39a79b627519ccbf162c182fe86e0013da67f6eeac7b28b01cf1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ivana Kekin be the next President of Croatia? | Event: croatia-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: <180 MPs vote to impeach Yoon? | Event: of-votes-for-impeachment-in-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lara Trump be appointed as th... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-inter-milan-vs-river-plate | Will Inter Milan beat River Plate? | 73,233,543 | 73,233,543 |
cbc855e6084bec03865f03e53d6a22c0f6b90e42 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x76b2d30bc6a66d959382f320b3fccbf150bc9e8d43553fa1f3308b864a3b33d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: <180 MPs vote to impeach Yoon? | Event: of-votes-for-impeachment-in-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lara Trump be appointed as the next Florida senator? | Event: who-will-replace-marco-rubio-as-florida-senator | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arse... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-e-winner-813 | Will River Plate win Group E at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,233,543 | 73,233,543 |
745f52fac833c7bb9d7e24f976a481e99df01b20 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xf459cd2a31e473150c2955f6d7abeb3ecf4410a3645276a566f4ee2dbe4823a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lara Trump be appointed as the next Florida senator? | Event: who-will-replace-marco-rubio-as-florida-senator | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal beat Dinamo Zagreb? | Event: ucl-arsenal-vs-dinamo-zagreb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bodo Glimt b... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-e-winner-813 | Will Internazionale win Group E at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,233,543 | 73,233,543 |
b7f88591b5ba978d64d119fa2cd48bde1e433709 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x591317c250de139b99d511c4e76335078bcab4e0427f5ee8dd1c80e51be21cca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal beat Dinamo Zagreb? | Event: ucl-arsenal-vs-dinamo-zagreb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bodo Glimt beat Maccabi TLV? | Event: uel-bodo-glimt-vs-maccabi-tlv | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 28-29 executive orders in February? ... | yes | 1 | 2025-lexus-eastbourne-open-winner-m | Will Jakub Mensik win the 2025 Lexus Eastbourne Open? | 73,257,253 | 73,257,253 |
01482849142c26186cacea4878d5172a5c127942 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x86ddb7bb4453c9e39f77dfc062552d2d252b568ade0becdea0f83cbec0a6ae98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bodo Glimt beat Maccabi TLV? | Event: uel-bodo-glimt-vs-maccabi-tlv | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 28-29 executive orders in February? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tru... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-al-hilal-vs-pachuca | Will Al Hilal beat Pachuca? | 73,303,243 | 73,303,243 |
0a452203474647abe2e053ca3337682faba97f2d | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x1494cee35fb9e955e5eadc8e2d65e2f829b1ef8f325813a6edf188c7dc7f86e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 28-29 executive orders in February? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's 2025 joint address get >46m viewers? | Event: how-many-viewers-will-trumps-address-to-congress-get | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | concacaf-2025-gold-cup-winner | Will Canada win the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup? | 73,398,123 | 73,398,123 |
e77fb903851b35fd92e3799825cf27a191e85323 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x057bc9fb889c49ccbc38806d9c58ea897839d7d390e481238d818a8c01298e70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump's 2025 joint address get >46m viewers? | Event: how-many-viewers-will-trumps-address-to-congress-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Mar 7? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,707,496 | 73,707,496 |
4c207f826381a571579397885419582e32d1fbaf | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x273ca05dd1713fcb5fbf2a69b1dbbc1dda25396dd26c42ec820d5a9f659a2702 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Mar 7? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? | Event: afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the C... | no | 1 | freestyle-chess-lands-in-las-vegas | Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | 74,086,016 | 74,086,016 |
aa099b10787fbd760843b33736d843a943b4ff04 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x996a32cbe570b8676754e1d9b2c0dd8aa03f364113d42b1171a18dbe8726b1e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? | Event: afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election? | Event: cducsu-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | f1-belgian-grand-prix-sprint-race-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Sprint Race? | 74,445,477 | 74,445,477 |
7b0eebe0da3471fa521720c033bcde15e23a7460 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x935ca12d2d081daf934e45de2ce60120de1ccb5846dc27f4c8da981dcae0c1f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election? | Event: cducsu-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-03-16? | Event: epl-ful-tot-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Mar... | yes | 1 | uel-paok-rij-2025-08-28 | Will PAOK win on 2025-08-28? | 75,830,276 | 75,830,276 |
c4ffe36d7f4ac353f47f6afeec2dada089ae67f4 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x0bd8429b13ccb9df4c4777132205dd40ba1740580b6b4ddac89cbefd6995f05e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-03-16? | Event: epl-ful-tot-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon say "Education" during Baier interview on Thursd... | yes | 1 | caf-mad-cha-2025-09-08 | Will Madagascar win on 2025-09-08? | 76,237,288 | 76,237,288 |
f2d46d69c2db2d31d4d0abeecc844929a2feb169 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xe7d5997ab394f2bba6bd798f2b0f0e841e2ffdd55f8e6d7f20f46e48de5386b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon say "Education" during Baier interview on Thursday? | Event: what-will-elon-say-during-baier-interview | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bar... | yes | 1 | caf-uga-som-2025-09-08 | Will Uganda win on 2025-09-08? | 76,237,288 | 76,237,288 |
1985c74dde6f2b3af1807690508adef2148f38c3 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x0eaad85c58966b8ea5f7fedb7519e50343bc70616c72fc1412a6a09881c7c2ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon say "Education" during Baier interview on Thursday? | Event: what-will-elon-say-during-baier-interview | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hikaru Nakamura win ... | no | 1 | caf-ben-les-2025-09-08 | Will Lesotho win on 2025-09-08? | 76,279,637 | 76,279,637 |
dc6a4983219edf0b13328ebc6f140a241705a25c | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x28de4f0f32f90398b98d8134704f9fd33ff33b5d7f2e05e9847c97b17feb837d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris? | Event: freestyle-chess-grand-slam-paris-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimmy Patronis wi... | yes | 1 | caf-ben-les-2025-09-08 | Will Benin win on 2025-09-08? | 76,279,637 | 76,279,637 |
81495d79045ccb0a38a531ef616c23fc285cece1 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x3609e7e08a843d17c2a6087db49dba8e14ca7a0e4fb7fd07c8dc5c42bedacc46 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris? | Event: freestyle-chess-grand-slam-paris-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Patronis win by more than 35%? | Event: fl-1-special-election-jimmy-patronis-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | cof-kor-ber-2025-09-09 | Will Curaçao win on 2025-09-09? | 76,279,637 | 76,279,637 |
bbbad7d40b57e73acb49f4cc23b142a31b3d477f | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x7ea0202ef9f9b34300acd0503b432a70c86c35b77ae7c38007ff0021479cc52a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Patronis win by more than 35%? | Event: fl-1-special-election-jimmy-patronis-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-04-17? | Event: uel-fra-tot-2025-04-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Athletic Club wi... | no | 1 | boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Boxing: Will Canelo Álvarez win by Points or Decision? | 76,434,029 | 76,434,029 |
fb16c0c6bb4515c5a86da1a43e4e1a7475522a4f | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x0656c73b782f5a69acd827353913ef341bc6db54e514dbb87d11d4ee51da39b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-04-17? | Event: uel-fra-tot-2025-04-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-04-17? | Event: uel-ath-ran-2025-04-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-16? | Event: ucl-rma-ars-2... | yes | 1 | epl-bur-liv-2025-09-14 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-14? | 76,468,308 | 76,468,308 |
933c6ac9be1a34a2cde42896f8637f21f07a2266 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x774c912a1bc4ac49a2416bcd09ffd45e89021f55f82277af6fc6faf765c6616a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-04-17? | Event: uel-ath-ran-2025-04-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-16? | Event: ucl-rma-ars-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Rom... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-mun-2025-09-14 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14? | 76,468,308 | 76,468,308 |
ca7c10432a2b64694ffcc157be729516b37cea67 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0xd3a719f6ee26e1f0955ab5446372cb034420544eb8f36d1553b773f663c8ae38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-16? | Event: ucl-rma-ars-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | ucl-juv-dor-2025-09-16 | Will Juventus win on 2025-09-16? | 76,570,505 | 76,570,505 |
80ba2f1d65dc6ce384ae05913a1e42473297f013 | 0x347a522d5fe7f612b9d855a09143a5cad88883e3 | 0x1be581a1ad8cd816ba97bd46dfdbb776d0b616e92be1c6399232e41b892f2c1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-05-06? | Event: ucl-int-bar-2025-05-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | ucl-aja-int-2025-09-17 | Will Inter win on 2025-09-17? | 76,591,211 | 76,591,211 |
3a954dd42afe82d81bb6ed697be3d4f4b4ef5b99 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0x5d95c5d73fdbfa8476a4061f6319c252dc5b0c2d6246ae02c913630a0a00f636 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11?
Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | 70,301,481 | 70,301,481 |
c4042caf6872a4c23f0023bf7b7a4dc14afd6bad | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0xfaaacb26f763f956b64813ecbeab3ba2701eaaccb0354563c1d8f012de95ab98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?
Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april
Predict the user's choice and confidence fo... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | 71,131,357 | 71,131,357 |
2bc7e9e44aa11d46509fbc6468b7416ae7021478 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0xbaa16aa187fa6b693f9f0b491f83df55e81b1252cdcd8c8d641f20fa0e8259f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Questio... | no | 1 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-april | Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April? | 71,477,702 | 71,477,702 |
ea0b0c12381d48e1f2c5a89b228cfa63956f53f2 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0x2505529546cbc7be77309a0495f9c52ca11392508bcdc5d0bf0d93265b4daa80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-16 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76–77°F on May 16? | 71,628,269 | 71,628,269 |
bddd7dfb0f49f95d2a5a173512eac0c6e32b4922 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0x4d16d1b804bc73a6a9c34e285c3a1ff2194ed096279cc44cdb94429cd29f9f69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-16 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.5% and 43.9% on May 16? | 71,655,416 | 71,655,416 |
afb536fd26a0242cba26637e1718cb8638e869b2 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0x1c9467d00abdcbdda454b838456f326358b6fecd1acf6870098bd50b709c29f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-18 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on May 18? | 71,704,768 | 71,704,768 |
8ae0051bef61f34328df4992ea575b017a7dfc15 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0xa53275a230dce28f253752226fee545c9429699e3852b73f3fe32c6c6a21a94c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-19 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67–68°F on May 19? | 71,738,837 | 71,738,837 |
9342984bca4b5ae8e610fc22b2592b7fb31c1bff | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0xc960789d6eb636756453f1d2cc30718c8a0d0fe90eedec1c2c35fcc3bf34c10a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | no | 1 | next-prime-minister-of-portugal-after-the-2025-election | Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election? | 71,738,842 | 71,738,842 |
f0a593d93632af9e9e75b137c1b3a10afadcb849 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0xc9ba0fb959388dca847421994ceafd85d901a8eb360bba626c36ee6d741bac51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 19? | 71,738,845 | 71,738,845 |
15bc251f5b56ff824f73afe937f02a756af6a625 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0xc737d1cf19e2a12ff7b2c53e1efcd37fb092e56640f053859f82c5cb8705ddd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | no | 1 | hurry-up-tomorrow-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Hurry Up Tomorrow' gross less than $4.4m opening weekend? | 71,738,847 | 71,738,847 |
02f7ba411e9108b2e7040adffd2e16e182b3eda9 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0xcec730d9e661c0ca042a5917dbb7be4e11bde4eee8c7ff56970cf2141820eb15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-19 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or higher on May 19? | 71,747,891 | 71,747,891 |
6066c1251828275600b18299218565acb6e67c93 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0xcab5f3d5a78a1afd3e96026b02ba50576e095bd9a2f94ca0b3f770506488cc80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-16-23 | Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23? | 71,922,126 | 71,922,126 |
e11186cef7ce3a345f804ef20e09dca76c1f0831 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0xa96e3a9ef1df68ebd52ece4c7a2ca13e5ec4025a18a12c20bd74bdcccf305a86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | yes | 1 | how-many-straight-weeks-will-the-life-of-a-showgirl-be-1 | Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 8 straight weeks? | 79,837,803 | 79,837,803 |
5e5c5ff7061433195234255745816509d1343f9d | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0x08bfd44dc98b4f5991c953baffdf2623e456ca7c111942705e918d5a73a67fdb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | yes | 1 | starladder-budapest-major-2025-winner | Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? | 79,837,807 | 79,837,807 |
54fa1363ec8fcce45af557f939d6f3ac3ebb8938 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0x3c7897078935c139abc79fcfa713863240f2edbc5af59fce3ad73f685d8b67b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | yes | 1 | 2-most-streamed-spotify-artist-2025 | Will Bad Bunny be the second most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? | 79,837,812 | 79,837,812 |
c0545829edc0e36c8bca03212cf140b4d3340bc9 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0xfd5a7d8cb258c7790a9c385d5999aff844108e66edd600f851a11397ede1c73b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | yes | 1 | 2-most-streamed-spotify-artist-2025 | Will The Weeknd be the second most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? | 79,837,814 | 79,837,814 |
3bdbfe16abea9cbb7b8430019ec0f2cbf41d2132 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0x2c3868656ee3f34b4346bffcff617fc3435301928b0dee8187f19efda487c518 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | yes | 1 | 3-most-streamed-spotify-artist-2025 | Will Bad Bunny be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? | 79,864,739 | 79,864,739 |
ebfe20163a64fe147429d717c6741c485ef58c56 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0x2cb090d7f352cfb265039a90371335c2d715cad301f6c0c3a7af841c80d40576 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | yes | 1 | 3-most-streamed-spotify-artist-2025 | Will Taylor Swift be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? | 79,864,739 | 79,864,739 |
af3c23e2ff6b9332963c2a259b2602904b4d3b89 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0x2f676f8d85d60dd20ce0e0ba14608825b970a0491b419d7dedfa81bcf646af2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | yes | 1 | ukraine-agrees-to-us-approved-peace-plan-by-thursday | Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? | 79,864,739 | 79,864,739 |
9c5c8cf7c242ee96a3a49e3a860fcdb27ead42ba | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0x7d5c8c039a78176d05499adb894b99af014d3c68da44cbab2bfb80f83b5f57b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | yes | 1 | 1-searched-actor-on-google-this-year | Will David Corenswet be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors? | 79,864,739 | 79,864,739 |
a0461c40c05337489dfddb2fdbad1c1dd2869c79 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0x84293e196bbfc51e70253af18479df3254e7510599b3ed0b3a4c7fe35c27e25c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | yes | 1 | 1-searched-actor-on-google-this-year | Will Rachel Zegler be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors? | 79,864,739 | 79,864,739 |
825de09744829db1298bffa47e7be757659b394a | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0xac86298f5ed78554715d5acbad97b3134602ccd9a8a27655ef7e62fe2bfbd063 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | yes | 1 | 1-searched-actor-on-google-this-year | Will Liam Neeson be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors? | 79,864,739 | 79,864,739 |
28778bc10b68d9a944a2217f5f6f8dbc035c392a | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0xc20f3157ac657531fbc57a060fdd3e0e356a1054fdc794fda8f69760108bf566 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | yes | 1 | 3-most-streamed-spotify-artist-2025 | Will Ariana Grande be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? | 79,864,739 | 79,864,739 |
1b9fdba03d66620e37979d6ca0d3825ae2e0bad8 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0xcefc861785141f19c7c71d09c2b4b0b379d5fd3ac5f3eb2d4cc3f8a0b025a748 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-november | Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? | 79,864,739 | 79,864,739 |
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