sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
bfd8db987c825e969ed369b608da116d6903bf50 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0xcfb3e973172b956fbb88add5edd7a66663208cf80335598ab94850ba2ddadee0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | yes | 1 | 1-searched-actor-on-google-this-year | Will Karla Sofía Gascón be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors? | 79,864,739 | 79,864,739 |
2cc58a379b97d35214d6f4d2bceb0e9e2c400f26 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0xfa2af5df835b2e681fa65bd67c7196200a9b520904969a89236435d98029b9f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | yes | 1 | 3rd-most-streamed-spotify-song-2025 | Will Golden by HUNTR/X be the 3rd most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025? | 79,864,739 | 79,864,739 |
d18527cdce1695a148d894bff3e40e6c4a6b2a53 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0x56253e676c3468fe6fc9e5cd26827d547de79d3cb4259a3a6c630f592d3f6c7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | yes | 1 | 1-searched-actor-on-google-this-year | Will Ana de Armas be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors? | 79,864,740 | 79,864,740 |
e5a528fb4a8df490330d67edc96dedac287f7327 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0x7bfebf626df931cda43853a6bac255b866e20c8cd6f5db778d165dd4807f0fbe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | yes | 1 | 1-searched-actor-on-google-this-year | Will Jenna Ortega be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors? | 79,864,740 | 79,864,740 |
9f1b75caee55a53ac2d905a6e3ddce6bce1bbd12 | 0x347b13dbf510484f2c7d0ced7e3e2c40f4f1c9bc | 0xa647b08efc45c9033db5e0fdce3935f2f4b57b755cbf2c97ab001d99cc193e80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg p... | yes | 1 | 1-searched-actor-on-google-this-year | Will Ariana Grande be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors? | 79,864,740 | 79,864,740 |
23280ede7bfe98133766e1c8d8934b8f136d76e1 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x39689d8b174ad92e8cda845b51453a303d7e1f0d74aa02a680a4a92fb93ad7be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch?
Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | 65,641,717 | 65,641,717 |
073f09c95f60ee390fe8231b8ba2850fed6edb6a | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x9131937353f293dc46435c8c96d1c3bfaa91aa28eda31304347da9026a191a5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?
Event: fide-world-blitz-champion
Predict the user's choice and confidence... | yes | 1 | fide-world-blitz-champion | Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | 66,279,479 | 66,279,479 |
fd4ba3049738cc1c13c6648b2e20f050c38f956e | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x4e0f29885709d63bfcff29e80f4a8df1da9e97906ba9e21577b46a70858d8e06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Ques... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | 67,923,746 | 67,923,746 |
62cbdfedd249da2115e0dd80117be7bb3144aade | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x5c1043c64737b78c988d81d1a0dce1e6badd1f655dcb0f6062b4f21a16ab8ca8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | yes | 1 | kanye-of-tweets-feb-8-14 | Will Kanye tweet between 200-249 times February 8-14? | 67,937,794 | 67,937,794 |
179eb58482f9378b895a662e7be346a885da1212 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x3aeb33faeafab42903b3d72431a20a2076d1bed82096988a9819034c61a6366c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | no | 1 | how-many-men-will-lily-phillips-have-sex-with-in-one-day | Lily Phillips has sex with between 1-249 men in a day? | 68,527,113 | 68,527,113 |
78dae5a865b1fd1c420b21d7fe0ef1931e9602e0 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x7ce43fde974369950c4c8c1c37649f6ce0f8e7017153f15ba71f32ebb2ac4595 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-7 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Mar 7? | 68,770,250 | 68,770,250 |
a83250aa133555cef5cecc2317c049fd03b3d402 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0xbb0224941da5cce71e72eab569f6b71cb6e3a6ac9e6da1f784c5e5cffdf29757 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-7 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? | 68,770,250 | 68,770,250 |
639627792f83efb82f8457be73a76976c22efe9d | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x23ad0785aa31cdac072cc966a80e255fedcfb15a323d71e605464b28f565d55a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | yes | 1 | next-leader-of-canadian-liberal-party | Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? | 68,863,285 | 68,863,285 |
d64fa34c01d707cffbfa779c6ddcd9913a178cf4 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x359844be54523e24f8e037503088752c06b51f9468e2787f2a1d1ab360c126fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | no | 1 | next-leader-of-canadian-liberal-party | Will Karina Gould be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? | 68,863,285 | 68,863,285 |
57c84c296e07db3238bf8b7c64564bbfb5b0727e | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0xf401fabcc8eac33fed8cfd55c851cc7b4f61d060e6143f867e744c7eb4c55d5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | yes | 1 | crypto-the-game-season-3-winning-tribe | Will Pink Tribe be the Crypto the Game Season 3 winner? | 69,282,644 | 69,282,644 |
4cfab13b91b4114887e20e368a735e04213c15a4 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0xfe0426110c2781680697692935232654748a55848f38ac7adad04e59ef8b93a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | no | 1 | crypto-the-game-season-3-winning-tribe | Will Yellow Tribe be the Crypto the Game Season 3 winner? | 69,282,644 | 69,282,644 |
6ced800edc1c53a01de957dbac38b72cc0a50dbf | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x304e6dff37a1ef831c9ca9c33fa451dfe728c23184410e7227f264270b18d7f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | no | 1 | which-country-will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-first | Will Trump lower tariffs on South Korea next? | 70,142,995 | 70,142,995 |
56ba83b312d4290d4dc208c8e2c6f992a7b49b34 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0xf522c1e233cf5ab0198c9d840b5a3bcc135ea05b6d5c4586f1146db16122fa8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | no | 1 | which-country-will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-first | Will Trump lower tariffs on Vietnam next? | 70,142,995 | 70,142,995 |
9367fecb14589759e7a38230b4bcf1db1f443545 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x18b0545ddb55a3f8345f7e875fc774eb789321bdc309d078e6b4c29174e6dfc6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | no | 1 | how-long-will-donald-trump-and-volodymyr-zelenskyy-shake-hands-for | Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds? | 75,383,142 | 75,383,142 |
2180ae8d4e72f86ab3e566677acf13a6dc52233f | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x5c475f003b9e477e97efffc86b2fb6041ec5503a7cf502ac7433ca840302fb8d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | yes | 0.805202 | arch-yzy-fdv-on-thursday-10-pm-et | YZY market cap (FDV) <$1B one day after launch? | 75,507,356 | 75,507,356 |
bcfe191a0563ac17706988c9aa52fe4f63ba11ce | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x860d8d88f29f6d41f4585d6bf261ba0f7266ebffddea0359820a4fd6fcfd88d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | no | 1 | arch-yzy-fdv-on-thursday-10-pm-et | YZY market cap (FDV) $5B–$7B one day after launch? | 75,507,356 | 75,507,356 |
f806a013c2aa8710744f73d5d7ef2dd1670280cc | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0xd3ffbd204bcd7b14c893e16c320a0b6a848f9e42c7bbc8963bf8f290b27c8bca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | no | 0.49992 | arch-yzy-fdv-on-thursday-10-pm-et | YZY market cap (FDV) $1B–$3B one day after launch? | 75,507,356 | 75,507,356 |
c9786a56b720665e187449b61555d3829cb692b8 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x5a620b78f9f402356d4a4253cb721f626d1c8b785b529e1e08fb7ab9aba586e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | yes | 1 | how-much-money-will-mrbeast-raise-by-midnight | Will MrBeast raise between $41m and $42m by midnight? | 75,914,075 | 75,914,075 |
b0f8d5baffde2c2e1b543f88a4c73d39bf3933e5 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0xf174491ff042ddaf0be75036ad5ba1899b35a4c8fe3146a75752f5da0d6193b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | yes | 1 | wlfi-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | WLFI market cap (FDV) >$16B one day after launch? | 75,969,646 | 75,969,646 |
69d1ab8fa1091b46650f71ca09424b3eea1acb99 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0xde878a801fcb0598e872ab1a7b0777b6ac10daff3c78ef75f72ed3884fa9c23c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | no | 1 | wlfi-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | WLFI market cap (FDV) $12-14B one day after launch? | 75,972,230 | 75,972,230 |
3526d8eadfe4cf0e00187377f6d54be7eed4b357 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x0b425bb68fafe68645d9054dee75d25224f8dbde08e2f8ac2d153b36cefcea6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | yes | 1 | vogue-next-editor-in-chief | Will Chloe Malle be named the next editor-in-chief of Vogue? | 75,974,688 | 75,974,688 |
05a22ffc5984e27eb572b330fa9515dbd9d4a4ec | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x5df6f4b1e902a438ca8e6a1abb7fda7a12fbceca7f12bafaf5368ec5e837e1ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | yes | 1 | when-will-bryson-dechambeau-complete-the-bentley-shot | Will Bryson DeChambeau complete the shot on Day 12? | 76,098,427 | 76,098,427 |
4b5a1d806055b1b340cbec0ac950415e56b72a3d | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x9c9ec68680d6f41a0f4535a2e95e1867604a934f5af1f434a2e19e56c4039925 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | no | 1 | when-will-bryson-dechambeau-complete-the-bentley-shot | Will Bryson DeChambeau complete the shot on Day 11? | 76,100,853 | 76,100,853 |
5848c87fc7c699c6fd8ae4dd0efbc2aa4eb7d1cc | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0xaa013dc336020b63713fa567fec6b735027bfd54d9b295aa3898cd59c95fa228 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | no | 1 | when-will-bryson-dechambeau-complete-the-bentley-shot | Will Bryson DeChambeau complete the shot on Day 5? | 76,100,853 | 76,100,853 |
33f4827e582f7b2093ccbef36d652ef11ddd026e | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x1f6ed08eed850bc39a9dbf1048abfb24406fa3ebcbcbf2774219303447c39133 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | no | 1 | when-will-bryson-dechambeau-complete-the-bentley-shot | Will Bryson DeChambeau complete the shot on Day 18? | 76,101,257 | 76,101,257 |
5e30d900d03bf5dba1f51c0c7951898f0adaa099 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x22c27b380868fb7e902477967f1c573fdd7f7f36be58b86640dd285b5d677d01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | no | 1 | when-will-bryson-dechambeau-complete-the-bentley-shot | Will Bryson DeChambeau complete the shot on Day 8? | 76,101,257 | 76,101,257 |
250d42b6182affead2c71e540683d013c3e9b882 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x549862f2ca25a7c94d7f912033c1ab91eb33a2787197fedfac38e3b1017da014 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | no | 1 | when-will-bryson-dechambeau-complete-the-bentley-shot | Will Bryson DeChambeau complete the shot on Day 10? | 76,101,257 | 76,101,257 |
18b7920ef2472b0d3d0cedbb44f9b453f947e2b3 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x5526916ba309bdda383bf552997b554662ff3e75820ba46ef61999a7a8463176 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | no | 1 | when-will-bryson-dechambeau-complete-the-bentley-shot | Will Bryson DeChambeau complete the shot on Day 6? | 76,101,257 | 76,101,257 |
3a6486edede0d13a19c1335f1ea8135cfa5b1227 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x5fd7d38213ad0c043784b45684a2f7f35ed82ba5124793860df4cc8be9990b9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | no | 1 | when-will-bryson-dechambeau-complete-the-bentley-shot | Will Bryson DeChambeau complete the shot on Day 13? | 76,101,257 | 76,101,257 |
005b646b81b31ca64e852525a5f2366fbc5500da | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x8d1e365c5f418efbaad4187b67cb1ffcc80d931f93e3e89d7143f377f146d27e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | no | 1 | when-will-bryson-dechambeau-complete-the-bentley-shot | Will Bryson DeChambeau complete the shot on Day 9? | 76,101,257 | 76,101,257 |
4bf5bccbfe3bd70561a9a9162eeaac1948ff28bd | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0xae981d5a08fd2728109c43e58a403768cfb71c0d02609f066b2811a8676d96a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch? | Event: pengu-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No chan... | no | 1 | when-will-bryson-dechambeau-complete-the-bentley-shot | Will Bryson DeChambeau complete the shot on Day 1? | 76,101,257 | 76,101,257 |
f3aed910c7baef1048bd78195d5384024e986ab5 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0xaf99635451950bdb83617888d59ee47d75155245052c98927ce459cca248dc44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kan... | no | 1 | when-will-bryson-dechambeau-complete-the-bentley-shot | Will Bryson DeChambeau complete the shot on Day 19? | 76,101,257 | 76,101,257 |
90bbc862f6b00c0630d8d5460f6e30776a523d7a | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0xcbf45031dbe01558ba0fe1ffb78de82d6395ff000cac0955e418ec6c44003f59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kanye tweet between 200-249 times February 8-14? | Event: kanye-of-tweets-feb-8-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Lily Phillips ... | no | 1 | when-will-bryson-dechambeau-complete-the-bentley-shot | Will Bryson DeChambeau complete the shot on Day 7? | 76,101,257 | 76,101,257 |
ed1d1ba67e69b83399569fc6a2648f50f5d738f4 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0xedc173b8cad36dfb8503351fa425a4e21f5f999033992520018955b2933c3159 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kanye tweet between 200-249 times February 8-14? | Event: kanye-of-tweets-feb-8-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Lily Phillips has sex with between 1-249 men in a day? | Event: how-many-men-will-lily-phillips-have-sex-with-in-one-day | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | when-will-bryson-dechambeau-complete-the-bentley-shot | Will Bryson DeChambeau complete the shot on Day 15? | 76,101,257 | 76,101,257 |
16fdc9ad7c149692aa56906f9cb7ed881d68e71b | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x7e559d61dd19b1f760461746074206ef55d7ef7547e965e690a302c13cefa776 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Lily Phillips has sex with between 1-249 men in a day? | Event: how-many-men-will-lily-phillips-have-sex-with-in-one-day | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Mar 7? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | when-will-bryson-dechambeau-complete-the-bentley-shot | Will Bryson DeChambeau complete the shot on Day 17? | 76,101,258 | 76,101,258 |
b68a13ffa87344b785dbf8023eec8c9541050ddb | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x9f41a3e4a2ef548cf207c22a48dbaf73e28dda5ec014c145217f428aaf3769e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Mar 7? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mark Carne... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,574,423 | 76,574,423 |
b91751d58cf42816b4bd1c94bcbf8fd7787bfc10 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x6e07c844d68f3c3f76f431b489c44a2c76c1c6a67fe6887a38b21f65aa5816b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? | Event: next-leader-of-canadian-liberal-party | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | stubhub-ipo-closing-market-cap | Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $8B and $9B at market close on IPO day? | 76,586,854 | 76,586,854 |
6fbac80c98dfecf1f211fd8fe519b67b975c693c | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x85a37432df4e41e09eb69dfa002b5cff11f64b4be13166d57dabfd84b07bc768 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? | Event: next-leader-of-canadian-liberal-party | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Karina Gould be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? | Event: next-leader-of-canadian-liberal-party | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | stubhub-ipo-closing-market-cap | Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $7B and $8B at market close on IPO day? | 76,586,854 | 76,586,854 |
4837b34b35390dc84a57beddc587ad74ddbd9119 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x1e1ec8877ef12158ebdcad27ee4639121ac84031379b0b97538fcd5d9f7d80b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karina Gould be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? | Event: next-leader-of-canadian-liberal-party | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pink Tribe be the Crypto the Game Season 3 winner? | Event: crypto-the-game-season-3-winning-tribe | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september | Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | 77,100,170 | 77,100,170 |
c5b5d87d29ed8c695a68b8a3cede98441991d17a | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0xaf2846e2dc6379a3713b552961a3072fbb38c1d793d0ed247dd82e94310d8b71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pink Tribe be the Crypto the Game Season 3 winner? | Event: crypto-the-game-season-3-winning-tribe | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Yellow Tribe be the Crypto the Game Season 3 winner? | Event: crypto-the-game-season-3-winning-tribe | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? | 77,100,170 | 77,100,170 |
300da369f48c2da5303fa3c59e9d750caabd24bf | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x94e7284ec921f6b251db9a051e019ee67cb775e110b2d9781a9dc5908cd78630 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Yellow Tribe be the Crypto the Game Season 3 winner? | Event: crypto-the-game-season-3-winning-tribe | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump lower tariffs on South Korea next? | Event: which-country-will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-first | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | largest-company-end-of-september | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | 77,112,907 | 77,112,907 |
e9247e50b12067bd57ef00c52c1d17c525f8ab05 | 0x34997a2049082aa6391b00576c4935bd1f722858 | 0x4668b63cb67ab4c34184b770186a947e4431d26d71ec8793f889628250f628bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lower tariffs on South Korea next? | Event: which-country-will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-first | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump lower tariffs on Vietnam next? | Event: which-country-will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-first | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | when-will-israel-announce-ceasefire | Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9? | 77,441,630 | 77,441,630 |
44e9886dbe01ad4742020c68f07707213b7ce2a9 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x0d62231b40d904b2f82254ccfdc1791e772cb500b8a95e75bff270a64a22472c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET?
Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 0.999985 | bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | 74,412,026 | 74,412,026 |
dbc507b6e294ed40e95154090cdff84455043910 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x5507a0cc14265a7ba926c1ffc4be49f5c1f2ce0ccae4c354068fa5bb1718cb01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET?
Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | 74,412,026 | 74,412,026 |
38f55d5cb8ac337b8f43479a91e4fb1a091b7a64 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x587b58f08f5f24f6158b3ddd75cf4955dd880536df7e6774b8cdf2763556b1ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | yes | 0.999633 | bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | 74,412,026 | 74,412,026 |
f59e1646e99a9c8176eb36b244ac6dfcba225f69 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x67ea4470e164095801eece8440f7ec447c258fbaa29136bd973d9f470726a3d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | 74,412,026 | 74,412,026 |
998241d27921a790436396c4c6df823d7ee53f9e | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x508964a6f11a8d1a7666483c93331169a393b2d6107bdfb57af1266bbb7a0b83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-26-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $116K on July 26 at 5PM ET? | 74,461,407 | 74,461,407 |
130a87307095fd38a39ccd5a61f73841e229d4ac | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x35fec87a09750b28b6b866c08302c578e2bacbcee5f2515f0539d4a36545ab87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | yes | 0.831106 | bitcoin-price-july-27-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 27 at 5PM ET? | 74,494,199 | 74,497,494 |
88bd43a199dcf06245524a602512daed14270d86 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0xda21b50cfa250e63e3050ffa9fdd3b3aadcfac0603121399a681dcb04ccd7e25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | no | 0.458331 | bitcoin-price-july-27-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $118K on July 27 at 5PM ET? | 74,494,199 | 74,497,494 |
45f66866f06a21c980ae4a57987c3855c8e658b4 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x61801e7de8cc5b1659f50ddf3d277d5bf82c67319fbdcde561fb3c16a89d251d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-27-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $120K on July 27 at 5PM ET? | 74,497,494 | 74,497,494 |
235060790570b198143361d668b2c11d3d1d886c | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x62adb793181139cb6f1533a2cfe05fbbf4d39ccc60944a06df95827d61d46d29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | yes | 0.163368 | bitcoin-price-july-28-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 28 at 5PM ET? | 74,534,143 | 74,534,184 |
8a82caaa4d12eefe5ec3d204ad7a5cb2df1a853c | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0xe9172f21796447a951ea4b0c5c4aee00be708f2c81ae20dfe93722262f9be34d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | no | 0.379197 | bitcoin-price-july-28-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 28 at 5PM ET? | 74,534,143 | 74,534,184 |
edf1cec3c386afb4c2b8e156190ea1117df94a36 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x442ec89838388e1533b515a107d7c7bdaba0e32e3ffcfe17142b7be4240d41c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | yes | 0.737305 | bitcoin-price-july-29-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 29 at 5PM ET? | 74,580,657 | 74,580,721 |
70a003f480555da8deab45be30f078434fc47a9d | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x7d74b7f1cc12d86ef8633fa2849b0f0b247cb62f78f1a29e9c80b49581ef0f67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | yes | 0.730038 | bitcoin-price-july-29-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 29 at 5PM ET? | 74,580,657 | 74,580,721 |
0498b0b593f0e148aad9598971309f0f891bbb57 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0xa8aeaa3d5e1dbee9fb43093053f954e9a9df4f7c070a532497c149a743114000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | no | 0.08514 | bitcoin-price-july-29-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 29 at 5PM ET? | 74,580,657 | 74,580,721 |
9864f49543457cd669d4d0f2589e7d5f5f308bc3 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0xc6ba02ab72c8dd830fabcbc442075edadfb5109c96e9151e40246e736515ff4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | no | 0.549973 | bitcoin-price-july-29-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 29 at 5PM ET? | 74,580,657 | 74,580,721 |
d3be5a2c53b53d5876ac07ddc4c8e1b75dfe13ac | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x26d61a8c39c111b80b75e5cebd598b23aa35ecd1e087b5b5db3923c00644f742 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-30-5pm-et1 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 30 at 5PM ET? | 74,612,730 | 74,612,730 |
6d1875475ab4555222f44aecbadca006c3979608 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0xa23dcaa090a2063e5ba1d921beaee2a936b77b3a9f9ad2a955dc3284856a0515 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | no | 0.50735 | bitcoin-price-july-30-5pm-et1 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 30 at 5PM ET? | 74,612,730 | 74,612,760 |
8063203ac19478dea378fcf57f39f12867ff2668 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0xc55dad9666ba492b629e15566774d8fdfd95fffbb0f50cf5790932f92d01cd99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | no | 0.50135 | bitcoin-price-july-30-5pm-et1 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 30 at 5PM ET? | 74,612,730 | 74,612,760 |
604d22ea598681340e2144499ba73a4d8efdcef6 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0xbeb7abd6121dfb3ae8e4a2b9fbc75297ca19dc1861583271b18e0f7e694528af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-30-5pm-et1 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 30 at 5PM ET? | 74,612,760 | 74,612,760 |
0422f25fb81ff148b518cfbff3c821326b7c7cdf | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0xc4674cacba4286220061effc3a4afb90be60afad9ac38ae8d4d4d15a99590fe6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | yes | 0.821277 | bitcoin-price-july-31-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 31 at 5PM ET? | 74,649,160 | 74,651,969 |
34ce7244bad7597de65d4dd9cd5ae6210ccfd9f1 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0xdce995b7a5c9de3aa1cbd817aa5e0209105a1939ead2c8077d2a8246811f055a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | no | 0.999919 | bitcoin-price-july-31-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 31 at 5PM ET? | 74,651,969 | 74,651,969 |
2418b77e90504c0e74236a8087cbc9a32691eb0c | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x62e939fbcb26aee4f172520444ef43a83adf3ea6155e2ae5d0871c13accdf21b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-july | Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? | 74,662,153 | 74,662,153 |
bd4ef97394b4513fac7609b7bc754daab4005ae4 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x3dc8a9adbeaf4cac0c730a9367cc240fbcacdce180ab31fe1f6842ff8c0220b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-1-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on August 1 at 5PM ET? | 74,692,024 | 74,692,024 |
22966c1ee8c46d2c6b2f3e4367857be00ef64d4b | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0xd9d9fe6c455c788270a11727348a73b5c8058e25208b4e4c8532ee9a56bbdc44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-1-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on August 1 at 5PM ET? | 74,692,024 | 74,692,024 |
5f886e16c769e0f3a59d70f73f926cc8a1fe3a31 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x5b6cd5edbff676b58096b0c448793eab9e3ebfdcc2b4ddd0bf8b783698f34f45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | yes | 0.875331 | bitcoin-price-august-1-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on August 1 at 5PM ET? | 74,692,024 | 74,692,060 |
294975ad9faa7e615d5a0c70c0b1892e025afeaa | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0xb002b0395558789300ac5397c8f259cb0873ec3293d028d5bad6fdcf295d5328 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | yes | 0.782271 | bitcoin-price-august-1-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on August 1 at 5PM ET? | 74,692,024 | 74,692,060 |
ac7bac032c384e6ce73ad80825e9b88ece77a272 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x94e610d67a49d74cc14b1e43a236f5ddc666c0c91b71e19e1c491b170da73f69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-2-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $116K on August 2 at 5PM ET? | 74,731,270 | 74,731,270 |
e2ec9f7319d7c058da6ca4c7987c1c90e9114622 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0xdc38f45d94466666b72eb5d33f504fa72a445350b071fa7cb827bc23d4d6ba96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-2-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $115K on August 2 at 5PM ET? | 74,731,270 | 74,731,270 |
6aada0e1138b99854b52cda6fea39d2f245c1b7d | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0xefcdb889351ada17ffe1d52a235f0ff56a1180fc08ee2de7a88fe9e36ada46f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-3-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $112K on August 3 at 5PM ET? | 74,775,841 | 74,775,841 |
f235714c1f7a18798afcae5f45355f8a1f6b3a70 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x86d534beafbcba6394d27d48e365f311b3ec711a7c3f3f414ff8ecc4dd07cbed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | yes | 0.95553 | bitcoin-price-august-3-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113K and $114K on August 3 at 5PM ET? | 74,775,856 | 74,775,896 |
ec954dcc821ef0c5d1895200672429243d9ed53f | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x39285a90d6bdbcfb19c5d18a2b0d270cdde2521b2acda5723efece38ffec9a99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | yes | 0.963385 | bitcoin-price-august-4-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113K and $114K on August 4 at 5PM ET? | 74,811,283 | 74,811,315 |
6f53494b2c1139fc354e530b419416a8f4ac782c | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x8ea83470f0730b3a3db1dc890e6f80b2ddae01d9fd047bb869f8f138739da6ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999846607793038
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choic... | no | 0.489011 | bitcoin-price-august-4-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $115K on August 4 at 5PM ET? | 74,811,283 | 74,811,315 |
30ed9137270b91a5839ca470952ea946fbd6225d | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x297f99e541100ce1b4f11ba8094e00199d936bcb556d803d52c2ef5c7db429b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-4-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $113K on August 4 at 5PM ET? | 74,811,315 | 74,811,315 |
9aa00e40e854d80d9e61e96066074cf7e6dc21fd | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x58cdcc147d07748f5c1de9ddd9bdc1ae6e39a10712196bd3480a44ce450f9f2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9996326813827484
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Ch... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-5-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $117K on August 5 at 5PM ET? | 74,852,423 | 74,852,423 |
06b2dba5ed93593a20d66a4547fa97adde29d045 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0xf0e911c51e6712cf232e0d0057e8b4ba16e5eacac081768be83035cadd4f338b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $116K on July 26 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-26-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-5-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on August 5 at 5PM ET? | 74,852,423 | 74,852,423 |
6028606f5a07333d36c945c75d86291f66bf0335 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x576830febe39751446f61971d325e06a1a7b6e0b16c54530907013a54b5a3b21 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $116K on July 26 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-26-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 27 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-27-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | yes | 0.458874 | bitcoin-price-august-5-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $116K on August 5 at 5PM ET? | 74,852,423 | 74,852,974 |
56bab41abac6a4f44016dd0e0dc0510c4403479e | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x5d0b4c9784e97870dfb92c719d06afb156530a06616592082a51206099d77bd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 27 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-27-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8311063602351684
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $118K on July 27 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-27-5pm-et | Choice: no | ... | no | 0.418543 | bitcoin-price-august-5-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $114K on August 5 at 5PM ET? | 74,852,423 | 74,852,974 |
6b20588b5164d993d77b05056d9d8882c6216d43 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x0e3da7171b904d1f2ed67245210647b50c61982994b152b58cf0364070eb2bc0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $118K on July 27 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-27-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.4583306274133045
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $120K on July 27 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-27-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-6-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113K and $114K on August 6 at 5PM ET? | 74,895,330 | 74,895,330 |
ca16b4d202a448e18b9180cd52ec278272011580 | 0x34bb81837834a639d57da1f3545351c02ada38c5 | 0x41eafd84e75b42e1baf43d1001d7ed1c72ebc317381ea9ec9c3293c82c2efb78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $120K on July 27 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-27-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 28 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-28-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-6-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $116K on August 6 at 5PM ET? | 74,895,330 | 74,895,330 |
9ceb37ed73e5bb57a6fefbc2ad9686439bf46e76 | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0x075dd6e93df91f2529d1cd8f12920ae1e7d3e6a3b12cb247a76fc0c022695d2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19?
Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | 77,132,961 | 77,132,961 |
e20eae79e9f7c822603bbb570323aaeb774efac4 | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0x2766c5b1c845e02014e5e48a298b6dfec4196f251959a0abd1f6823eeafd2fcb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19?
Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19
Predict ... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | 77,132,961 | 77,132,961 |
41d0d018794c4ab94d9d6acc86bce91d4d66c9eb | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0x3aedd363c0a92bf6a846b14711081a11260f18d688f8b61632b9eb16381d8f0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on September 19? | 77,132,961 | 77,132,961 |
bb36dd46b7698bc3db846cbe7dbeab4c9a62a8b9 | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0x4649e366d582fb296e8ea856b8a21995ae7c342aeb99dc86ec296a683b494084 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 19? | 77,132,961 | 77,132,961 |
440d724aac46da5d4882b8e631fdb520a007fe04 | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0x1191857bb50f8beab2ecc9bd92443dbb50e4849e4bba4b55b746b800dfaf7468 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-september-19 | Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on September 19? | 77,132,983 | 77,132,983 |
1573176943fc988feeee61a6e683db7005556445 | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0x2584ea83383dde25d0df88824734e1ca61cec7512ed72a4e609ef63bc1901c3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on September 19? | 77,132,983 | 77,132,983 |
e27958071cdbfde65ac052e55376624e8b0b3054 | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0x420df1c0e84f0833c2ba143f6f83d3f6c5e234d644f39c489139e5124986d390 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-september-19 | Will the price of XRP be greater than $3.50 on September 19? | 77,132,983 | 77,132,983 |
190d386448f07be9a98739a5ee3c4a67bb22ea77 | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0x8f297e46633bb100d7b4f28d44a88fb328b77139127e55712146f329823249c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-september-19 | Will the price of Solana be between $200 and $210 on September 19? | 77,132,983 | 77,132,983 |
409c304dfb567f4eac8edbd9253d2a993a18aaee | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0xa74373d8217560c915eb4f4bcb1fb07329a9af6f28bb3ba3f014c4c6b924d649 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on September 19? | 77,132,983 | 77,132,983 |
d10157cc0a0b107686db791f875af07b95c0e6a5 | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0xdaa8b607d58f7193629256aed8cac61b6f9a47be554291cb0a92fcce3c92e72f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-september-19 | Will the price of XRP be less than $2.60 on September 19? | 77,132,983 | 77,132,983 |
c79d651ff69439251abf9c255884ba32f1080e4f | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0xdfd12e7cf39bb0f966ce21b6fc4c09b12eb2f5655071fb3bee7c056d4b801f5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-september-19 | Will the price of Solana be between $220 and $230 on September 19? | 77,132,983 | 77,132,983 |
f6d58fef6ff39cdcaa89323b1fba125cfe015615 | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0x2ea4f0fecdc8597f6af85a9d14d0f92caf4103a1e5009cbbcc5fa437e62f761b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-september-19 | Will the price of XRP be between $3.30 and $3.40 on September 19? | 77,132,985 | 77,132,985 |
822fba3f6f7060d9e9d5e22a67843fbbed2fdb33 | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0x8fb06d6cb37365d59fcf2de8aaff08d8304c4f92a0d3b972bf4ebcca5fa4a71b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on September 19? | 77,132,985 | 77,132,985 |
a4167cb8a0a3019e55011512eccd46fcb8131694 | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0x9a347750710d0a044727f6875eb2ed7fa709c762deae2fbe6171056e559d864e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-september-19 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.60 and $2.70 on September 19? | 77,132,985 | 77,132,985 |
c5512c344580f2e0f61d81051ab321824eff0db7 | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0xb0ff4087dff272aba488f3aa0da32a7c98889d4cd75cb9b218e42a6bcf56b436 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-september-19 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on September 19? | 77,132,985 | 77,132,985 |
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