sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ed5a9fa07a8f0d4de1f43ff6b73bb5f7609c71ca | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0xdc0b2460712126201e5b6afd796d3d5cd44e3be0fa4a4211be6f6b2c03debdb0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-september-19 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.70 and $2.80 on September 19? | 77,132,985 | 77,132,985 |
7510767c613d71f3f7788e2c39a27f373ee955c3 | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0x3c43f6543c9f32b7f7f619ba818e8e60d332efdbdff1c9b62c7f3e333c2cf0d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-2 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on October 2? | 78,366,499 | 78,366,499 |
84fd71879ad3c4f54ab0f36b1820c764ff99e5fb | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0x4a7cb485a2cce2e2693f13a52e191f91cc6f11fdab55b6048a83dd6900566c88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-2 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on October 2? | 78,366,499 | 78,366,499 |
070957513fd3a4eadf66a8e1d07bd412dd28387f | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0xcc64d7acbaa35eecc7e03cfd6a5313a59b9ea3dad73baf8408b65457cb689c14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-october-2 | Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on October 2? | 78,366,499 | 78,366,499 |
b1f9fb8dc84b4874965667c98c7ebfe8d01d1b07 | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0xdb9edd2defa28984040dec07308703a48c62bfb47dc03f10cfee78ef14c72730 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-2 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $120,000 on October 2? | 78,366,499 | 78,366,499 |
12f640c52ffd0f4c3b75c726ffd3d89c75934689 | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0x21b13a10fcd4bf123a22444e6e8f827101803a6cf31e6a330ac0474a89f883aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-2 | Will the price of XRP be between $3.10 and $3.20 on October 2? | 78,366,501 | 78,366,501 |
38dd7aa46c2180a9b015ffab583fa664e0d706e7 | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0x4df8f959fbe67c578d968eaa56c0963a0695b9d201fd2b37a9ae1f9b00ad9f90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-2 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 2? | 78,366,501 | 78,366,501 |
4a7e627a35dc37f6c8f69642d66171a34cb20051 | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0x5423fa676970c9ad3b3bb9680c88483bce77d2bae2b5c9d95427dc453a20472f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-2 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on October 2? | 78,366,501 | 78,366,501 |
afd46d6935ebe7915acafbe73e755ea6af1f8c3a | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0xa2ea02c6ebd24710b2d928372a0b67286a0095dace1b0cb1878deca098db1a28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-2 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,100 and $4,200 on October 2? | 78,366,501 | 78,366,501 |
8ec5162853f37db931fff7d1ae771c8636cf50c7 | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0xd98e6657c4336bea6adf404c07b338500fa9720699a815bd0498d4a8bc1b6b29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-2 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,500 on October 2? | 78,366,501 | 78,366,501 |
0d59ab19e083852d1c2c466a7e04ca602cc555d1 | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0xf3c97c6aafdfc709332b73c7fdb323fd4cc7b971a41d8dcdf827d1c973bdfc5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-october-2 | Will the price of Solana be between $230 and $240 on October 2? | 78,366,501 | 78,366,501 |
a2ac3cd576c9d0db1057a1d323185fab7adc56f5 | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0x93eb1e426532fb92472b19842b47305f7641a66b0fb6cd33bc5b9d4c81346198 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-2 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on October 2? | 78,366,502 | 78,366,502 |
fb7d77693d2743c53e5bd8419a0ba8328283944e | 0x34c242c98e612d99523cad64c296b3d1ace94f06 | 0x339bbb4711b4a5bb77d93d2b2949d909d60dbc826218c519b21fde1b8c591d42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 19? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-30 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,000 and $4,100 on October 30? | 78,410,600 | 78,410,600 |
c8f60697891c403b8519fd13533d84a640aa50e0 | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0x6693186b775382538986330bfee6938b243acf7bb9f8c20d358d0458c1d476aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22?
Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,365,463 | 79,365,463 |
30806df47a3df65535c028fb52bb6750dc4c1d5a | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0x631afa913506c50e6482b36cebb45e22d27941b10f31a8824d0ded9c5cc3a8a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw?
Event: rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output stri... | yes | 1 | rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23 | Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw? | 79,435,165 | 79,435,165 |
a7f80d81ae30ead85cdd501c5c1519cc99df235c | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0xda5957f62a89cb71f355da95d453df2668df4bc5ef2b4c573396b16a16a650d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw? | Event: rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-... | yes | 1 | bra-bah-vas-2025-11-23 | Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? | 79,435,187 | 79,435,187 |
40ad3ef18a8e892f8648f839ae6c7d32db18672c | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0x774e5878c5268f91a041f8e6ac9da926f5a6eee6edff162220b8e9641e166097 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw? | Event: rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | es2-mal-mir-2025-11-23 | Will Málaga CF win on 2025-11-23? | 79,435,258 | 79,435,258 |
da2331cd4127e6e049511aca6edc3deefc9874fd | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0x60a006d0360545ce1f132407bef7e9d25a8b9b785908afc1818d736ef13b352e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw? | Event: rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? | Event: ... | no | 1 | ucl-cfc-fcb1-2025-11-25 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25? | 79,509,249 | 79,509,249 |
8a5c599fe6ae0644f7319c8a8a57a2561c393c4f | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0x7fc4af4de40c4a9f406a2931afe8a04b6062e85adf00f1b88c4ceb500698bbf8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw? | Event: rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | col-omo-dyn-2025-11-27 | Will AS Omónoia Leukosías win on 2025-11-27? | 79,589,338 | 79,589,338 |
29806324feaf53a9b6405324fad3ae2ac3accd94 | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0x706d9578dd31ba10a5532f2873b07efc1e22b61a0b6106fc334175c3c55fee2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw? | Event: rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? | Event: ... | no | 1 | col-fio-aek1-2025-11-27 | Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-11-27? | 79,598,106 | 79,598,106 |
d3bad1cc6d611c55d4bb3e77ef93bd1fe6244c30 | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0x411e7ba4ed4a12d7b0adf5477b1158ea20e815689cf8336263e6c0f26c9422c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw? | Event: rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? | Event: ... | no | 1 | cde-mal1-bas-2025-11-29 | Will SC Bastia win on 2025-11-29? | 79,671,802 | 79,671,802 |
a53c85522490691a9540a9cd69fcf6f5b13cfb52 | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0x58645f2e361114e02af44a429370cd0694604da794a755f699e1379cedf3415c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw? | Event: rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? | Event: ... | no | 1 | rus-bal-spa-2025-11-29 | Will FK Spartak Moskva win on 2025-11-29? | 79,674,202 | 79,674,202 |
87f641c86883fc5fbd6ba1b3db9a58228db20d2b | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0x595540f8559c58749451e9a77b2ddab0de2be42a682543afce2dc6c3951b57db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw? | Event: rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | arg-cac-est-2025-11-29 | Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-11-29? | 79,691,391 | 79,691,391 |
58c8f170d5fee85f4615bc8cc44f843b23571b34 | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0xc0c047d8e5f46408f0f213d9ffddafb6661930c04ff717464db5a9db0cf6a8c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw? | Event: rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? | Event: ... | no | 1 | jap-kaw-san-2025-11-30 | Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2025-11-30? | 79,697,763 | 79,697,763 |
9b949087b935de054e1213c71a920f4e894cfa7b | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0xdb5324b89d36f70ad85bf079860ac5438c18caede1c4a1a55511a92b7f5b2b33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw? | Event: rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | jap-zel-ngr-2025-11-30 | Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2025-11-30? | 79,697,763 | 79,697,763 |
3b69ae7d6196f36a870e7873ee5a2d04024ed672 | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0x6249a3ef2f91dc8311533e639899dc54f8c5e66cf6f09fac04b536ed0b969177 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw? | Event: rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | rus-kra-kss-2025-11-30 | Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-11-30? | 79,706,872 | 79,706,872 |
70e6fa09db525b770eca3584314be687e035fc8f | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0x08c580d0b349f30c0504a1285c851ac836475a6dbfd80b4e63f0d09a8d92c046 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw? | Event: rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | fl1-hac-lil-2025-11-30 | Will Lille OSC win on 2025-11-30? | 79,717,167 | 79,717,167 |
b372f9035076ecfd4532adf189d4d0dba3509036 | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0xafb8ba3b6f1db2323c6d43e1b942a45275106c95b29debf0a17e565b2514155d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw? | Event: rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | sea-ata-fio-2025-11-30 | Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-11-30? | 79,719,012 | 79,719,012 |
b4f4bcd55ecdee62d48d14d7a3dddb8ef8b8b4b8 | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0xb6840e82720debf0e943362b98cf72e5b5c9f7528bc1c987cd68f24734be834d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw? | Event: rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? | Event: ... | no | 1 | bun-ein-wol-2025-11-30 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-30? | 79,719,012 | 79,719,012 |
2cbd15d65800ab04a59ce44c57d9d6a1719ca913 | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0x7e19da7bf5539db9dfd376dc6326afdc946426cdde8d0c65b18455f59abaa109 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw? | Event: rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? | Event: ... | no | 1 | cdr-cda-get-2025-12-02 | Will Getafe CF win on 2025-12-02? | 79,835,400 | 79,835,400 |
0ad13a957253a8356f25c0be0156af2767850c1b | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0x97a5e5dbc013f33fbb5c71a58bfb01463fcb39ef0a7bebfe269128c7fc3f2187 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw? | Event: rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | cdr-por-ala-2025-12-03 | Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2025-12-03? | 79,838,928 | 79,838,928 |
a76d7d3c8ac557b87b69d17982a509d3a103d2c7 | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0xc23ab15739d9b2f2a8c8433041eb5d1414963111f06fc26d5028e0a271afe148 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw? | Event: rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? | Event: ... | no | 1 | dfb-scf-svd-2025-12-03 | Will SC Freiburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw? | 79,847,756 | 79,847,756 |
00d5914a52f8537d6c8efaa7606f270182da8be2 | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0x2461f2fa8dbbbda837613571a66b39e53f5f0ab54fe7f0d8f2064785b69243c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw? | Event: rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? | Event: ... | no | 1 | epl-lee-che-2025-12-03 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03? | 79,857,106 | 79,857,106 |
4cd1dc858288c1faeb559be4a3b9e423594ce1b7 | 0x34fa6f84725bbc1e29d820d1812392bbd0b6f491 | 0x3c4aac73a05e3d491bf41579b30e3491101a2fbbf91aeee9c62ff3cd347f5542 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar end in a draw? | Event: rus-lok-kra-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | fr2-lmf-ami-2025-12-05 | Will Le Mans FC win on 2025-12-05? | 79,941,354 | 79,941,354 |
09e38f42cfcc46fa99293aa48cc088e6a4e694ce | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x6cc501fa617e3a46ececf6e3990fe1afeeaa6bc897d3c7049c005fd1bdc42c2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?
Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | 61,989,907 | 61,989,907 |
d04fa819b53844bb2c020b2fd2a17fe1ac98b875 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0xb20072387cd12bc73f3a6fd30fdd5aa1644c8f72f958803d90fc05c51db0ac49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?
Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024
Predict the user's... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | 62,007,112 | 62,007,112 |
40e4c4ede408e6ae3ab0e6288a3cd23478ba02f6 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x2a3a29b57597777e5d2941c419716b02a7b8c43b5c19c4ac746ae2d9c720cbe1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | 66,941,950 | 66,941,950 |
3030fdc0d97b7bd0639a3a8fdd781e379d4c0e25 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x9c23593b309f27a4e05f059032d59c2a37f8bb10d126ac7e22014593a07fa9a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | 66,941,950 | 66,941,950 |
f865aadc928894b3875e38453e70873109f05cec | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0xb41303fef1fad2465522ed3d9a0d26d7593733e3b567d7888b981056b33865df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | 66,941,950 | 66,941,950 |
a41cb67174703b4f34b2e536ed274b4acd4d994b | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0xe4a9b98237a29e778ac5717e3d29220bb2f0c0370e8e3436d4a277853556355f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting? | 66,941,950 | 66,941,950 |
a3318307063db4593ec8ba414641f164104c0ef3 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x075ec16258858acf699c5d9211c90bc9d290b1753d37e0b3b4faeddaf8d08195 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Will Trump issue 15-19 executive orders on Day 1? | 67,257,904 | 67,257,904 |
ff716134db84792321cb22bec5ae4db647cb71bc | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0xe20ccccd24a2cb5b16a649b7843502672c8c6ab3b8982614487fe87340e16c30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his-first-week-higher-options | Will Trump issue 100-149 executive orders in first week? | 67,257,904 | 67,257,904 |
8b1c175373c9d46dbf9f55acdcd6392b28620015 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x0621570d0ce75e9ada3514f12984dd2c8c90f60f563662c83f9d8ca5697b471c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope? | 71,280,820 | 71,280,820 |
ed3f6651ecb0cfa741a0390f999bd74abcd27ff3 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x14197a2979391a7bb1e6918582334640f309c22c7718f824c9fa1e149302662f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | 71,280,820 | 71,280,820 |
b2ca0a43c675d82d6b498dfd60297e8e9ec8d7b0 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x201d65793c52d5fb5a2b992813f1077a3a95f0c6daa676965ac1b49e7182eb1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? | 71,280,820 | 71,280,820 |
4be13ddf9c2e540f8b82885c364d536d3dc9aac9 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x310856dda37a2cc0df91c98d55b4af046b803843a3255cfa6f3549ab6edb0920 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | 71,280,820 | 71,280,820 |
ed0a878064f94a90f32bd672db14cfc9e2e2c13a | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x3ab814a91628c1ba02720670c334d3d25a9414adca1e74928c6db3f077257219 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? | 71,280,820 | 71,280,820 |
54df2d9355faa73f669d2e5d752ecff798f3a144 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x843f8eb5959f17324cd6272b3665aa9c377e28d8d2d94ec120aceb745f3fdb9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope? | 71,280,820 | 71,280,820 |
57f7b3267c4073fcff0ded17d40d1fddedea98b9 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x8d095e53627bf3991ec7d7259f5d9db121945d343bf7d9d79e9aafef3a0d6924 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope? | 71,280,820 | 71,280,820 |
f70c79a3431265e05cd6bf1f37dd669f594f0307 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0xad060ea1394b5b608758c7894b78102fea337251f9065ac3db96e1f8fc211abe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? | 71,280,820 | 71,280,820 |
40509797a617a046700f810de24b3031c8037eb3 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0xb1e19f6cd8016a3b997fc1ccc6defe28fd4dc27d6412e285abc5230c10dc85ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? | 71,280,820 | 71,280,820 |
d79693699ec6bbe45167eaba967101ef78abaf3c | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0xe3cce9907c9cf32d35a376fbb581d97beba2e2cea485bce1840e23d0af42f9c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? | 71,280,820 | 71,280,820 |
bd8670f5f83c4e2f793be761d17cac061c25ff0f | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x1e6597f4cb7216d962f60555fc1c37b06bc5fed9ecda9f920e2ed70034169684 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? | 71,280,822 | 71,280,822 |
e1f2cc7119405c690e20b8010c672c659720a8de | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x31ffd9aab0ebb5be9ec63c29f42bbe1d6c7a43c246612ce3e42febc8658e242a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | 71,280,822 | 71,280,822 |
d936b085d737241b34698ea93f31c682a07aa8c0 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x4bb6de97e799c4202ab568e696667519bc9877316367da60c852ab6b29e826b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? | 71,280,822 | 71,280,822 |
4acdba96f6d42a2b3aa175b26dcc8b1a008fda47 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x89f0bc25093b13c1bbba16731bbdd8a8a9c4a4454d029ea52a2ea8f995205715 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | 71,280,822 | 71,280,822 |
c0d3021c56f1af2c22c23c5f61d7db84305982a0 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x94804ca845f8a47d7b57ded99651443836d4b7b10ee8ec6ed991b6c88eb37216 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? | 71,280,822 | 71,280,822 |
b76a70229e9975effd7cec8b27d93f4c7323cbba | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0xbc313b9d1136eada02794b4299fa04bab53da830001d73966fb9ca1e7ffbad5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | 71,280,822 | 71,280,822 |
118495f571e66b4969c86b861f3dd4d78cd5cee2 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0xbf94e0a29a7c5f810c79be85579bcb7f684d8dc12f660185a970c564fe2b1f36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? | 71,280,822 | 71,280,822 |
12b98c2828412886fd2dcadeaa7b4a13b699a1b3 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0xd2f2ff896c1c43703671bb7e4bea21f3fdae0ad2ca2dda1afd712d6ac99b2221 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? | 71,280,822 | 71,280,822 |
ebfa0882ac268f8bc3d7b8fd2356f7865e751575 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0xe13ed1b2e0a0f4276534a9c0e3343987aa244d94cb1b60a1c3d6ac1774cec9c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Wim Eijk be the next pope? | 71,280,822 | 71,280,822 |
120ea8fae0679780632fa39f88d7dc912e1398bd | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x4f41dcf62337975c5bb40a27d807d81f6a9eba3eb0da2954d776f052d47ab6b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | epl-che-mun-2025-05-16 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-16? | 71,626,436 | 71,626,436 |
a3526d69c56cd204dece120bd86c31acdc0c7a6e | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x9e0804addd71f116860d1ed8bde11e83d38e796e40603032cd40affc228ad90d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on May 16? | 71,626,436 | 71,626,436 |
c92918523ccda3a329f785498cad096776b79237 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x83fef6809c77594736233884fa9c7dc58d2b824ef633ead703133ceb784d6754 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | 75,354,293 | 75,354,293 |
b8391aad9e7bf1986dc36658a8a9e9436ecce1b6 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0xb56995a05ce813ade5e7ab6ed5b0dcd57f5f06eaabe180efc7798f00c2f62254 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | ucl-bas-kob-2025-08-20 | Will FC Basel vs. FC Kopenhagen end in a draw? | 75,471,611 | 75,471,611 |
93acbf92e0805356fc5bbab44327b686c42001a2 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x1501ce61d7583d2229df2d3834d35ff4555d5719644bc6a2091cbadc03b0e314 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | uel-lpo-gkn-2025-08-21 | Will KRC Genk win on 2025-08-21? | 75,515,442 | 75,515,442 |
d4f16598d0e8761907072a5865e8089da76a64b8 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x3a215bec6f946cc1cdc6a7c84aac6feb6626f6a603a0d364c7080a832686059a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | uel-brn-lrn-2025-08-21 | Will Brann win on 2025-08-21? | 75,515,442 | 75,515,442 |
33a404cfd07b090bb214df791b58a60e52659c0e | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x5126f7a1761fa2dd5846e9824e4396433ed13a72faa22fc4fbd2ca8dd62076d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: F... | yes | 1 | uel-pao-sam-2025-08-21 | Will Panathinaikos win on 2025-08-21? | 75,515,442 | 75,515,442 |
41b12b25fb7521ad0560dca6576c820e9979d48c | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0xc1cc2e25172c2b456ba722f8bdbdc727c042013b09d1cf0dc8ae5f43e60ccfa5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | uel-mta-dky-2025-08-21 | Will Maccabi Tel Aviv win on 2025-08-21? | 75,515,442 | 75,515,442 |
e47e90ce5813ac83351ceb8e4e94199640ce2379 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0xcfcd556e69fcddba50c906fc85b4ebc240551103cb3b767f47ad2993ba485253 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue 15-19 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | uel-mal-sig-2025-08-21 | Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | 75,515,442 | 75,515,442 |
d397a43e05973fd1b0171ced35bd8c3e1fa7a01f | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x253f1d9424330f952ad10e249367ded5802540837417879cfc3d880beb796c8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue 15-19 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue 100-149 executive orders in first week? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his-first-week-higher-opt... | yes | 1 | sea-com-laz-2025-08-24 | Will Como win on 2025-08-24? | 75,648,492 | 75,648,492 |
9b26e04b23a7778c7725c6c9bb519d6ebc234b9b | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x0ee6f1ac4cc2a2d055da1861221a2dea12a92bd46d6692cf4c1f49785406d02b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue 100-149 executive orders in first week? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his-first-week-higher-options | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | epl-lee-eve-2025-08-18 | Will Everton win on 2025-08-18? | 75,675,170 | 75,675,170 |
b911dbdf723c4cf10cfe1f56c4ec472a89605df8 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x57b53af900529843bd56d59ed5fc9b2803c8455498063de2666517028fc22898 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope... | yes | 1 | sea-cag-fio-2025-08-24 | Will Fiorentina win on 2025-08-24? | 75,675,170 | 75,675,170 |
5e43c7c592c5817e6c945068aa063203dfc7aeef | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0xc18b13da314f8a4a0f4aa4da41fa3096b69e9290a8cd213b317c1c9cf3f1eea4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope?... | yes | 1 | ucl-fen-ben-2025-08-20 | Will Fenerbahçe win on 2025-08-20? | 75,675,170 | 75,675,170 |
114779a164b09ab5dcbbb8c11848578c166ae08a | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0xdf286184dbcdfeef40e1f278a6a7db02ea9abcd6b1b0d1e51a18b5c8ec00a675 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? | E... | yes | 1 | ucl-fen-ben-2025-08-20 | Will Benfica win on 2025-08-20? | 75,675,170 | 75,675,170 |
10621140743d66112b6bdf5f32f1575f4f983e8b | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x0e2efb911bef26f360c8dc430aca95328f17de63700af2fda483173c6747a0ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope? | Event: who-will... | yes | 1 | uel-shk-lud-2025-08-21 | Will Ludogorets win on 2025-08-21? | 75,675,171 | 75,675,171 |
230cf724961e129221abb8e7216a447d02c862ab | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x740b193af59adf3fcb1c163871ad96f103a306521f560b976683c99dc3931d48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope? | Event: who-wi... | yes | 1 | ucl-ben-fen-2025-08-27 | Will Benfica win on 2025-08-27? | 75,759,230 | 75,759,230 |
ca3d62edd03ff778ef283d57a9cea393bc4bd921 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x8ebf7dbc097184ed0a90c5261ade1ac3519774eb5d71a098e1e69b7c87b38604 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-... | yes | 1 | ucl-kob-bas-2025-08-27 | Will FC Kopenhagen win on 2025-08-27? | 75,759,230 | 75,759,230 |
23e83d3020fa8f79fdffac6552f87e7f306355dc | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x50e71d63cc5c1129d8154d92783592777ec99a5d3904b3b4fd2b362223472aeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? | Event: who-will... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-mac-2025-08-31 | Will Brighton win on 2025-08-31? | 75,915,907 | 75,915,907 |
7e161933f40cc3f54bace95a315a69fe2fd24c0d | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0xb5a646e21b4d8603d524393a2a935cc9fe738bc688bc04ac4aab0d11f4e79e75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-ars-2025-08-31 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-31? | 75,915,907 | 75,915,907 |
982fb8586a9c2d6fdc2dc376fa3cd0a8663e3b4d | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0xce12c49c44cc6833d22e88b30d498a99d214e14c8da1a3ab2e5c66531a345e3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? | Event: who-will-b... | yes | 1 | con-ury-per-2025-09-04 | Will Uruguay win on 2025-09-04? | 76,083,616 | 76,083,616 |
8661c1740ce4a98815d55a3dcd125b58f3d85ce2 | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x743960d190f8324cbf2a183b5360af1abc02af6d0b07d9046f42b989bc2bca8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will... | yes | 1 | fif-aus-nzl-2025-09-05 | Will Australia win on 2025-09-05? | 76,121,910 | 76,121,910 |
9e9e4ff6337fe0145734856ce501fd17ec58719e | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x4ff55f268b38682a58a4670e3499e43d308a34c7a762335ff0faf1b723767888 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? | Event: who-will-... | yes | 1 | fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | 76,252,800 | 76,252,800 |
6ac1fa5cf3e14f2ca01f8496ab452412132dd19a | 0x350782c5ab409a0be6e13042b4677a4368d5475a | 0x4a8ea36fbc0dd454d8a53f4bfee80df45f6954eecbbcf0f9fb5bca626e8ac5fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be... | yes | 1 | fif-jor-dom-2025-09-09 | Will Jordan win on 2025-09-09? | 76,280,312 | 76,280,312 |
d5ae0316445f94cc5592104f0fa12accc46d81c5 | 0x356ffe14e6275b07ad32b00cd4dcfd6d50659db7 | 0xd2bea6c86cf24f9413bf9d1cb82431c18d7d0d6c93b878c138f91e793e1ac558 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-02-11?
Event: ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11 | Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-02-11? | 67,826,043 | 67,826,043 |
b069531ec9123f9913330ce4c92e632a358e0d6d | 0x356ffe14e6275b07ad32b00cd4dcfd6d50659db7 | 0x1e7b37b2e897c63067cd1df7444080f34182d6bea4d79f74c7fb189643d6bb00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-02-12?
Event: ucl-cel-bay-2025-02-12
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., ... | no | 1 | ucl-cel-bay-2025-02-12 | Will Celtic win on 2025-02-12? | 67,860,848 | 67,860,848 |
3d201d11280a9083ae225ff7e5f891420c9fd156 | 0x356ffe14e6275b07ad32b00cd4dcfd6d50659db7 | 0x244a3c22563b125fd4de7e9c26c8bebc8c24c711ae0160bef29865a91b288bfb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-02-12? | Event: ucl-cel-bay-2025-02-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 12? | 67,869,699 | 67,869,699 |
d1b911c9120cbf354f02823796855d64aac4052f | 0x356ffe14e6275b07ad32b00cd4dcfd6d50659db7 | 0x70859bd678c5bcff69ce59b5bdfe60e487770a38f9da3b23cf3b2c107bbfceff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-02-12? | Event: ucl-cel-bay-2025-02-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 1... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-14 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 39-40°F on February 14? | 67,952,689 | 67,952,689 |
bc845708e3d93164d667a5c97b31cdb2b76cbd0c | 0x356ffe14e6275b07ad32b00cd4dcfd6d50659db7 | 0x4d3dd7bb4db09fe21b43c65b2b0bc9313d8cab3dc2f4d631bbefb7d8ff359e1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-02-12? | Event: ucl-cel-bay-2025-02-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 1... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-15 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on February 15? | 67,990,502 | 67,990,502 |
bd60939ff4e226242e00115b7bc7c1f0cdbcdb54 | 0x356ffe14e6275b07ad32b00cd4dcfd6d50659db7 | 0x6b46f3a64bf96b7c081d470dd8f38b732c01d60937d5684794c382db00bc8776 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-02-12? | Event: ucl-cel-bay-2025-02-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 1... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-15 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 15? | 67,990,502 | 67,990,502 |
d1d8f6d0f4304fad7819d9262e01c0c04b1a7ad1 | 0x356ffe14e6275b07ad32b00cd4dcfd6d50659db7 | 0x2cab9db8bd08657c7adedcb55776d8ab9d97728f680b67f74089c28961ddd79a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-02-12? | Event: ucl-cel-bay-2025-02-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 1... | no | 1 | 2025-nba-all-star-game-winner | Will Team Candace win the 2025 NBA All Star Game Tournament? | 68,027,462 | 68,027,462 |
267e33f16a4dfe97e4c2c0c8339a9d880218282e | 0x356ffe14e6275b07ad32b00cd4dcfd6d50659db7 | 0x832baba7ea82158fd165d2133d20104813efddbe49fe09a06327fe5eb081750c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-02-12? | Event: ucl-cel-bay-2025-02-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 1... | yes | 1 | captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60? | 68,045,638 | 68,045,638 |
5d18cf07eac53238d744f2a6f1959f6c48100de9 | 0x356ffe14e6275b07ad32b00cd4dcfd6d50659db7 | 0x01081df0cc99aef286312d8e520fa35d881918f3d0229556bc0a87be0dd9fd37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-02-12? | Event: ucl-cel-bay-2025-02-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 1... | no | 1 | captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 50? | 68,045,650 | 68,045,650 |
b2deeb350f2fcd00f2d87072b6619773c5ca37eb | 0x356ffe14e6275b07ad32b00cd4dcfd6d50659db7 | 0xff46383a899b29bf5972aa92dfcb180200e1eb0da7eec2298cf34c8c7c8a553c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-02-12? | Event: ucl-cel-bay-2025-02-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 1... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-17 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on February 17? | 68,065,072 | 68,065,072 |
5e4b6e4c41229db29b6c7b30d4fdbbf560003d74 | 0x356ffe14e6275b07ad32b00cd4dcfd6d50659db7 | 0x1147099f359c39e6b7232ed5389da96637d6fc2aa2b9bf6c1c3c9840149721ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-02-12? | Event: ucl-cel-bay-2025-02-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 1... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-17 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 17? | 68,082,114 | 68,082,114 |
fca96b09b7b540c00a714a6ffdb2ba1e9d9f35e8 | 0x356ffe14e6275b07ad32b00cd4dcfd6d50659db7 | 0x6596bc3b5ab33207f0ad1f71abe582cf16e21d7c0989dbc3987279225e44ad13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-02-12? | Event: ucl-cel-bay-2025-02-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 1... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-17 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 40°F or higher on February 17? | 68,082,114 | 68,082,114 |
83de4329c99148ddffb4d3be29200eae1797115e | 0x356ffe14e6275b07ad32b00cd4dcfd6d50659db7 | 0xed33d018b8bf0cb34ada6ce45df74c528314b2ecc2575c2251336e679375434b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-02-12? | Event: ucl-cel-bay-2025-02-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 1... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-17 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 17? | 68,082,114 | 68,082,114 |
b20b4cc56d4ca4e9fb763cf908b34e5eb0d376a5 | 0x356ffe14e6275b07ad32b00cd4dcfd6d50659db7 | 0x182ecd7e8863e1c6e7f7f3deea27fd68bdd4bd117b5efcea013449a9b1bd9cff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-02-12? | Event: ucl-cel-bay-2025-02-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 1... | no | 1 | ucl-bay-cel-2025-02-18 | Will Celtic win on 2025-02-18? | 68,108,226 | 68,108,226 |
b522eb6e3ebb7cda28b154a49929cb5ca861f194 | 0x356ffe14e6275b07ad32b00cd4dcfd6d50659db7 | 0x3cf55099bde48572901af5b25ed9cfbe0dd14e6e578bdba0a1f5a54dc9c62745 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-02-12? | Event: ucl-cel-bay-2025-02-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 1... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-18 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 30-31°F on February 18? | 68,154,790 | 68,154,790 |
29aa20fa0f6b638092afef2f931bb8681ef357db | 0x356ffe14e6275b07ad32b00cd4dcfd6d50659db7 | 0x25ae67b3e2ad3897a6bb4261c4df6de2e56fbc49870dbd3687051e0cad196fea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-02-12? | Event: ucl-cel-bay-2025-02-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 1... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21? | 68,185,849 | 68,185,849 |
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