sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9378ede7ab56da40c75a742248db74202e8bcaa7 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x225d5bd8843d2cee5fc9a4d644b5967a547823aebc88ddf9172b688ee93c0836 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | no | 1 | ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-10-22? | 78,039,460 | 78,039,460 |
2a92838c0020cdce8f223dceed4b0745cf797534 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x6a12253b7d2ecdf6e3d4287bb2845165df3201e2c69025f233b70d0bf56d030b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | yes | 1 | elc-wre-oxf-2025-10-22 | Will Wrexham AFC win on 2025-10-22? | 78,039,460 | 78,039,460 |
113b2bcff0be7e98dc7aa6af28ba2db8c61c1dee | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xc49d31f486b072eb18b2a32b63cf3456543f46f56cb044e89d122ba0f54e9aa7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | yes | 1 | ucl-cfc-aja-2025-10-22 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-10-22? | 78,039,460 | 78,039,460 |
b1c75ffcc34821dd8b6234a457712b3edc4512a2 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x1f36472d11b86063d01be852d3ed1666b4629b9a2bf52d68c482a39973a2f780 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | yes | 1 | ucol-rap-fio-2025-10-23 | Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-10-23? | 78,075,898 | 78,075,898 |
b36e09b6a8ca158ca34b2d2eb4be102890b6dccb | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x54ec22ff213911451a4cb7d7b6615aa785a8bd9ec444700a679c6d5b8a5e317c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | yes | 1 | uel-ste1-bol1-2025-10-23 | Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-10-23? | 78,075,898 | 78,075,898 |
de73fdfc4bfaafaf2e2150ee6bd7ecd623e89082 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x95b3372aa8a669891864a4275ddcffb1b769becfa94ed28544f8dbce06eb4e83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | yes | 1 | uel-scb1-crv1-2025-10-23 | Will SC Braga win on 2025-10-23? | 78,075,898 | 78,075,898 |
5509f0c8e66c7e22d3f156fdefcce0e4d0fc41b4 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xd0a008491dcd277fda9b094ffb443a5f3eb4171efc2b55eb91276bddb8365487 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | yes | 1 | uel-bra1-ran3-2025-10-23 | Will SK Brann win on 2025-10-23? | 78,075,898 | 78,075,898 |
d4f840d1422979fac11350c8e5fe199b826c2f3b | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x68558acadcccc49dc6a0938d33c98b457dd73f6690e6bf9835a3269cebd3fbdd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | yes | 1 | uel-not1-por1-2025-10-23 | Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-10-23? | 78,087,712 | 78,087,712 |
d112ff598ba163d185874d61e87ed5a74c5a116d | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xfa6a142bd5a90179c48ae9084a3e360c01675508ae8bd58bb94071ed4b60c477 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | yes | 1 | uel-lyo1-bas1-2025-10-23 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-23? | 78,087,712 | 78,087,712 |
22ee9622a69042551e99a7c6bbfa5ed75a035086 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xa4aeeacfbdfbbd2f4f93930d6b29c7df135f5d3234fa4978e990174b72d51aa6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | no | 1 | fl1-pfc-nan-2025-10-24 | Will Paris FC win on 2025-10-24? | 78,134,383 | 78,134,383 |
6fc6a9ef2495338a015de92f02711b8af0834f4b | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x63cc2991c659dd966d536426cd66f0d4d3f07c66db66f25af262fcb4423b7439 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | yes | 1 | elc-bri-bir-2025-10-25 | Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,157,461 | 78,157,461 |
22b6d81e7c944d4710af4481ed31d37cb0e3636c | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xe345024c97ea62ddc6a709d10fe9333ac2119d63e333aa0071a925deb0d11834 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | yes | 1 | ere-spa-tel-2025-10-25 | Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2025-10-25? | 78,163,405 | 78,163,405 |
efcdd6662a5e0b619000971d081268936d7b104d | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x6cb996d8145b430f2e510c243342c4f08a610c5cccbcadb44b815bc0cebfda5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | no | 1 | mexican-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? | 78,177,540 | 78,177,540 |
60c31438cf416c5597140f87a362c78113dc8e2c | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xcd0584cc42c7869bc28d977a951086549c08fd89c42a5515154508dd51a1ca49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | yes | 1 | mexican-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? | 78,177,540 | 78,177,540 |
13a89a398e925839265222fbff8ebdfcdb694cb2 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x3a7cd6b4c02882654bb7b63f2fc496683095890a9ed42efd4dd5980ce23dd19c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-not-2025-10-26 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-26? | 78,202,093 | 78,202,093 |
473ec66b108ecb1b8ab73d8fcb44cb4609ab8b22 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x4126ce9dc772c3eb415bc5dca067e94dec405e811bd023200e37f8cd58c876de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | no | 1 | epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-26? | 78,202,093 | 78,202,093 |
a5faf6f839ba17705aea01d3ce1fb1f5845fa4c2 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xe37ead46f9841332fb7fd91cfa1a2a5d9055085f412dc064f010265170bbe350 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | no | 0.999963 | ere-fey-psv-2025-10-26 | Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-26? | 78,202,093 | 78,202,093 |
272de827948f8fcfe6f44a6ad3063cf405968302 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x17d98f09c6a309865f9151c0f89412f31afd07afd25cc2073e59832fc1ccfea0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | no | 1 | epl-lee-wes-2025-10-24 | Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-24? | 78,359,208 | 78,359,208 |
a40996794c70bc08158b3a3c51710b0641a8e31b | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x1f05689aad83868565f1a12156b170a6a351a1ae904d862eabbb1f23c12ee852 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | yes | 1 | uel-gnk1-bet1-2025-10-23 | Will KRC Genk win on 2025-10-23? | 78,359,208 | 78,359,208 |
59f476cd7fd390038c6c453ba61c6fb3bfb70aa2 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x280564e496d65b030823f170461a3e1b784b3666c7f94ee0d499efa5c7ad0580 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | yes | 1 | ere-nec-twe-2025-10-18 | Will NEC win on 2025-10-18? | 78,359,208 | 78,359,208 |
72a34fbf90514f56fbae39a24797f69b229944aa | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x2ee5eea44c59ea201517f2019eaec5a58edf35627533793d88774c9f1bb0bdea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | yes | 1 | elc-por-sto-2025-10-25 | Will Portsmouth FC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,359,208 | 78,359,208 |
38b963f2051a5680eab2868df02802ecbef96bc0 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x344b92fb5f46a83c32a954fb4c42f0945d784a5681c4fe710f169225f5caba7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | no | 1 | ucl-gal-bog-2025-10-22 | Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-22? | 78,359,208 | 78,359,208 |
f957b57184a4c38c889f74a67b0ba8ed0caf191a | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x49a309923442c3d68cf732899acaa38425c9c29b2dabf233b90a2ac3d0e12957 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | yes | 1 | uel-lil2-pao3-2025-10-23 | Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-23? | 78,359,208 | 78,359,208 |
0876bb292bd33b95a36a134db162d0f9a7698443 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x4bdf0155cbd6d59d298ec0ce3b6d6f70c1a0e542f935e457f8c08075627dc925 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | no | 1 | epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | 78,359,208 | 78,359,208 |
f1004c2c691e07b3cf86e968e7f8a77ef4252b04 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x5a0f9776be6c742291ec44debf3b4c56f6c3b9271e96b073eeb80ea6b38caeb6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | yes | 1 | epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | 78,359,208 | 78,359,208 |
f465767ebb0e4b856d8a05f5610ca30fdec74d3a | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x5e65e02946fafe079d48d7343f3ff08cc92a10602f71bb9f5adf5ee29b3edc1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | no | 1 | ucl-ath-qar-2025-10-22 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-22? | 78,359,208 | 78,359,208 |
385715ca91e6f832a2b8cc3c9eba0ab322360052 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x73b24765e4bede69fc4a1f02ebd3b6bb98a81c21b71f0be68a8746ab52c9c7d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025... | yes | 1 | ere-zwo-nec-2025-10-25 | Will PEC Zwolle win on 2025-10-25? | 78,359,208 | 78,359,208 |
0726def339bc690e0548dd2bdc47a92ba4a5e30b | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x8420848b911c110e9d6fe3c9b6bde6d5f5b957f5a5a4605ee6605690ece8c557 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-19? | Event: ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: elc-por-... | no | 1 | uel-yob1-lud1-2025-10-23 | Will BSC Young Boys win on 2025-10-23? | 78,359,208 | 78,359,208 |
910a2c9d2b2aa10b76e75d8899f7a45adb8cd852 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x9056c56cdc5125ca93e6bb5072f4e4571ddfa122cbada093626bf6691587f5c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: elc-por-cov-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm... | yes | 1 | elc-mid-wre-2025-10-25 | Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,359,208 | 78,359,208 |
b60bf0f1b042492d859306f59bd5c277432fa54a | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x9a12438e995726cbb698ead0e828ff348b7354487d1747d1ca58948e3a76c029 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: elc-por-cov-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wrexham AFC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: elc-wre-o... | no | 1 | uel-cel3-stu4-2025-10-23 | Will Celtic FC win on 2025-10-23? | 78,359,208 | 78,359,208 |
02b5e02a6f119e0532631c8a0454d0bedb98d3f9 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xbd3f2be4b5971d57242f0d64078ad83128dd276cbdde27133697a93f28f53240 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wrexham AFC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: elc-wre-oxf-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-cfc-aja-202... | yes | 1 | ere-twe-aja-2025-10-26 | Will FC Twente '65 win on 2025-10-26? | 78,359,208 | 78,359,208 |
9edba84a59cf64b62f724d3561dffed5a116ab3e | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xd7cab9a5e86fa6aceb4a8f5b14f6e6f8a326592c8a644710a02a67efb6f126f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wrexham AFC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: elc-wre-oxf-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-cfc-aja-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-10-23? | Event: ucol-rap-fio-2025-10... | no | 1 | ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | 78,359,208 | 78,359,208 |
d440731749245b5c188a51538069ac974ce68cd7 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-cfc-aja-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-10-23? | Event: ucol-rap-fio-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-ste1-bol1-2... | no | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 78,359,208 | 78,359,208 |
61e9a7e2826e9e21b0a2d8478869311ba75fb597 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xf06a161f8326e12761d3d63b73e1d60911199bee716ba12433746bc1cca04be7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-10-23? | Event: ucol-rap-fio-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-ste1-bol1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SC Braga win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-scb1-crv1-2... | no | 1 | ucl-fra-liv-2025-10-22 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | 78,359,208 | 78,359,208 |
dfb00fd9e69cb18df19f80f718ed332872256766 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xf7f26636caab5ef2ce51e16727422f72fc6c6d0cfac1549acc5abab0e6ba45cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-ste1-bol1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SC Braga win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-scb1-crv1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-bra1-ran3-2025-1... | no | 1 | ere-az-utr-2025-10-26 | Will AZ win on 2025-10-26? | 78,359,208 | 78,359,208 |
9c2172b93a213b34e0beab427b7445729bf3aa2b | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x05a2513ab2a43bbc707c6db0a758a2f4772a4c8a7f273e82794df6aa8640d78d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SC Braga win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-scb1-crv1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-bra1-ran3-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-not1-por1-2... | no | 1 | uel-cel4-ogc1-2025-10-23 | Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-10-23? | 78,359,209 | 78,359,209 |
c5c54e42afd99174a30a7da8b3063c1714362d17 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x10fe34a1518e35e6c2a65493281f77030ee0224de1b036438a89086f1aca1ad1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-bra1-ran3-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-not1-por1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-l... | yes | 1 | ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Will RU Saint-Gilloise vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? | 78,359,209 | 78,359,209 |
fa6a7f5e86aff2c8fff50ed5cdc4939b2675ed8e | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x1bb5efb25b141673cbab78e7e968e81bae677075894b64473d09eff2320f2e6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-not1-por1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-lyo1-bas1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-10-24? | Event: fl1-p... | yes | 1 | uel-mal2-din6-2025-10-23 | Will Malmö FF win on 2025-10-23? | 78,359,209 | 78,359,209 |
d5ccdfef06d17d1f031898f1f55b7ecbfb6dc350 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x36451f00590fe27f0e96687d1e60e933a9c49942efb0e5318f963e38bdcf2b90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-lyo1-bas1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-10-24? | Event: fl1-pfc-nan-2025-10-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: elc-bri-bir-2... | yes | 1 | caf-tog-cdr-2025-10-10 | Will Togo win on 2025-10-10? | 78,359,209 | 78,359,209 |
ce86ec2ee9531f9d58e33c6d1fe5cd0444364179 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x3ec5a273a323b8f19eda2fb79cacf3da25fa0f86af96eb9fb4b26ae6262a2169 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-10-24? | Event: fl1-pfc-nan-2025-10-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: elc-bri-bir-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2025-10-25? | Event: ere-spa-tel-2025-... | yes | 1 | elc-hul-cha-2025-10-25 | Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,359,209 | 78,359,209 |
07793b2e0b124d646067bcb333076c405edde129 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x412c2aeadb7bffc5fe0a0bb9abceae4376735bb8539002c1adb940892c5b1db6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: elc-bri-bir-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2025-10-25? | Event: ere-spa-tel-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pol... | yes | 1 | caf-bot-uga-2025-10-09 | Will Botswana win on 2025-10-09? | 78,359,209 | 78,359,209 |
e1c6ba15d8b50163b4fd7ba381084b60186bdd18 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x4d34c76b243c72ff90ba818082d12251ce25e23d57851ecebfe6a5a8352cad06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2025-10-25? | Event: ere-spa-tel-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? | Event: mexican-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025... | yes | 1 | elc-ips-cha-2025-10-21 | Will Ipswich Town FC vs. Charlton Athletic FC end in a draw? | 78,359,209 | 78,359,209 |
265faa0e75fa1ba4ef21800d611a137c3a013179 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x6d304250894b7d0aaf80a5ce656392658319b425a4d33963ce78723ed29e3f71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? | Event: mexican-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? | Event: mexican-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | elc-pne-she-2025-10-24 | Will Preston North End FC win on 2025-10-24? | 78,359,209 | 78,359,209 |
1c024d39ae67172e22650d13d59846fb72fad0ed | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x739fe6b07f3c40f4522a9dde61c46cbaaabbdfb0c840a3b512a7a93f8e2afb6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? | Event: mexican-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-bou-not-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-... | no | 1 | elc-cov-wat-2025-10-25 | Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,359,209 | 78,359,209 |
6587cc1772f1eadd589f444cb6425a9d8787390b | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xa26ac375eabcaf287a9ee25a71a067125f388b510fed679510aad6797a1007bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-bou-not-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ere-fey-psv... | no | 1 | uel-scf1-utr1-2025-10-23 | Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-23? | 78,359,209 | 78,359,209 |
96f5d80f67715eabe37d7e40d845a47eeed4adce | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xa97e77fd0f8970f1d081d53639167b53a9d26f0cf44d00dd318eb13ae6f486e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ere-fey-psv-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999631258169005
3. Question: Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-24? | Eve... | no | 1 | ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? | 78,359,209 | 78,359,209 |
34f44129b72677cf011994b295cdd83a46e8ae7a | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xaec25e41ac7ccfbf5f5bae4dd75618bd0c43e929a6dfd738385ed10b42ac1bb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ere-fey-psv-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999631258169005
2. Question: Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-24? | Event: epl-lee-wes-2025-10-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KRC Genk win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel... | no | 1 | ucl-vil-mnc-2025-10-21 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21? | 78,359,209 | 78,359,209 |
e5022aeec8fb4a63b601b2d3761642b40ad3189a | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xbeb142614be190ff29589676dfb6c314c0ab5249e16612a83ba5a9cb539762b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-24? | Event: epl-lee-wes-2025-10-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will KRC Genk win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-gnk1-bet1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will NEC win on 2025-10-18? | Event: ere-nec-twe-2025-10-18 | Choice... | yes | 1 | elc-swe-oxf-2025-10-25 | Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,359,209 | 78,359,209 |
9e19eda8362e192d5573f6297e02d5974b61419a | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xcf2b8e1f4d8603c1519bc4c0315fb5c7ab111ff696d24703a18ca8085cddbbfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KRC Genk win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-gnk1-bet1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will NEC win on 2025-10-18? | Event: ere-nec-twe-2025-10-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portsmouth FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: elc-por-sto-2025-10-25 | Choi... | no | 1 | epl-mun-bri-2025-10-25 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-25? | 78,359,209 | 78,359,209 |
165f75ec0ba1d63d10dc09e0ded3e2916f07ad1d | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xf2fca7e2552dbd0581127141a221e33c3dd847445d87db43b2126f8fe90a03fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NEC win on 2025-10-18? | Event: ere-nec-twe-2025-10-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portsmouth FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: elc-por-sto-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-gal-bog-2025-10-22 | ... | yes | 1 | elc-mil-sto-2025-10-21 | Will Millwall FC vs. Stoke City FC end in a draw? | 78,359,209 | 78,359,209 |
c784944761b041f05fc34a81781c8e93639afe47 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xf65ade5964931c1d767d47ec09817a05c43287c1ad71e4ad6ba20868fe71494b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portsmouth FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: elc-por-sto-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-gal-bog-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-lil2-pao3-2025-1... | yes | 1 | elc-der-nor-2025-10-21 | Will Derby County FC vs. Norwich City FC end in a draw? | 78,359,209 | 78,359,209 |
8080b727c1988a0badc080aeb46340bc42fa0e02 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xbc32fb8e68917c22abe553167ba0a4993ba333e8640728ce2e6389d26f216724 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-gal-bog-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-lil2-pao3-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 |... | yes | 1 | bun-aug-dor-2025-10-31 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31? | 78,438,179 | 78,438,179 |
fdf4cf6ea2f3244100831b7273421ce88724e138 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x7962dd0b79fb3585682185c0b2254fad2c5215fc4358ecac188004b1f5f208ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-lil2-pao3-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-lee-2025-11-01 | Will Brighton win on 2025-11-01? | 78,464,499 | 78,464,499 |
65d24416a499f54bcd63b8bb4673479f6c9f7b26 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xb1163e18f5fb7dc2c572004a5456100f08f71c513d51001bd1f7306a1d1d864c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ath-qar-2025-10-22 | Choi... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-bre-2025-11-01 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-01? | 78,464,499 | 78,464,499 |
40ebb3ff329d91ffd94c25b8820046a26e6f3b14 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xd608371cde69e478a508339ef02e033badb03e39ffe95a062adcf6366a98ff3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ath-qar-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PEC Zwolle win on 2025-10-25? | Event: ere-zwo-nec-2025-10-25 | C... | yes | 1 | epl-bur-ars-2025-11-01 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-01? | 78,464,499 | 78,464,499 |
aa5c4507fa8e0c0cb74513ae4e7bfcfca3fad5cd | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x2b26d71d6e8573a49871770b4e302b77d7f2df65ac8dc52ef920fafb42e192ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ath-qar-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PEC Zwolle win on 2025-10-25? | Event: ere-zwo-nec-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will BSC Young Boys win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-yob1-lud1-2025-... | no | 1 | elc-cha-swa-2025-11-01 | Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,465,706 | 78,465,706 |
d594354efc63af60caedd5f143f948c1eb266d85 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x41fdc6f18a10d1d48ed4ed477f36556b764f5d057b4d71dd996a6c5c250114e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PEC Zwolle win on 2025-10-25? | Event: ere-zwo-nec-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BSC Young Boys win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-yob1-lud1-2025-10-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: elc-mid-wre-20... | no | 1 | elc-sot-pne-2025-11-01 | Will Southampton FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,469,371 | 78,469,371 |
180d44de525ed5f5de2afc45ab55ef868af7347c | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x01467afa3046b3c9babfc73fef100fc735f441668c1da42b5a7da72a40061313 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BSC Young Boys win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-yob1-lud1-2025-10-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: elc-mid-wre-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Celtic FC win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-cel3-stu4-2... | no | 1 | epl-wes-new-2025-11-02 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-02? | 78,503,208 | 78,503,208 |
c916ba42915f7eee0e51ddee73e991e3df5c28f4 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x1970582876bd1ec31a3b9ed53b310d4aa19f036f4a6f4d94c72a2aae8851945f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: elc-mid-wre-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celtic FC win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-cel3-stu4-2025-10-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Twente '65 win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ere-twe-aja-2025... | no | 1 | dutch-parliamentary-election-groenlinkspvda-seats | Will GroenLinks–PvdA win 26–28 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,531,175 | 78,531,175 |
a24beb97f7af83989a1129cb2feabe5616c3e54b | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xe072f983b87320ae039b4987ec8da0c19c00848f57611586b5ceafbc6007b7e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celtic FC win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-cel3-stu4-2025-10-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Twente '65 win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ere-twe-aja-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-202... | yes | 1 | netherlands-parliamentary-election | Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,539,966 | 78,539,966 |
6ca7809439329176f77c48db2ef3c059040577f2 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xdd05f5d5996df430308d5566a83bba6d5dfb96081e6cd9b08f0d722eaa84c264 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Twente '65 win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ere-twe-aja-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | E... | yes | 1 | netherlands-parliamentary-election | Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,539,969 | 78,539,969 |
cb32ee05b1a6780265d2061e5632fa862361f19e | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x7d4d6916fa50ad0be01c1c065a6b3ad95f5d444c18fc6b766a99d31173469303 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-1... | yes | 1 | netherlands-parliamentary-election | Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,539,971 | 78,539,971 |
f3a9077c8f3ca004439be019f86ae0e574c981d5 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x411ed50e3ea1fee7d6f364d24458ac4888c0f65396c669fc344c81f954ec3045 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AZ win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ... | yes | 0.99997 | nof1ai-ai-trading-competition-winner | Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition? | 78,567,006 | 78,567,006 |
42542d6e79e1863361ae20a2402834726abfef99 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x9a16a9e521b8522cdf18d3baa35babdedefd65bc0d52fc739a3b94c967d6bef2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AZ win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ere-az-utr-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-cel4-ogc1-2025-10-23 | C... | no | 1 | epl-sun-eve-2025-11-03 | Will Everton win on 2025-11-03? | 78,567,006 | 78,567,006 |
71c7faaf457c3cd360760be30eb6c91069a0c530 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x256f791f88cc2a3c68944495bc3a9eb2f65031cf63a1d8acff31a2827f5d4690 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AZ win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ere-az-utr-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-cel4-ogc1-2025-10-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? | Eve... | no | 1 | ucl-juv-spo-2025-11-04 | Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-04? | 78,609,714 | 78,609,714 |
65edcd20dad581c8737c34cde70219e620f70a44 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xc234a1986a07b7a877e255b212d42c62fb88857c2e505824552b7d6c9dceda19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-cel4-ogc1-2025-10-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmö FF win on 2025-10-2... | no | 1 | ucl-bog-asm-2025-11-04 | Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-11-04? | 78,609,714 | 78,609,714 |
46c4981b3ebd0fa3498e99751ca3782558f6dad2 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x3eb22a031e853ce7d3490c4857db026b78a7f968032d8de6effd9d9f1ade6897 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Malmö FF win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-mal2-din6-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Togo win on 2025-10-10? | Event:... | no | 0.25 | ucl-nap-fra-2025-11-04 | Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-04? | 78,609,714 | 78,853,823 |
a8a535f544a16212603334c00fad2f6b99bb5b0d | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x751ca25043da33cab8c9142c0172ce955bd4a8bb6a162c4f87ddaa83325bf21b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Malmö FF win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-mal2-din6-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Togo win on 2025-10-10? | Event: caf-tog-cdr-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: elc-hul-cha-2025-10-25 | Cho... | no | 0.249975 | ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | 78,609,714 | 78,853,823 |
31137f02a3e3f97ed7d350801fecf5f09aee2c1d | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xbdfe12184653677d4d2cb7424a59d5854bd1889037628732fd846271160bae74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Togo win on 2025-10-10? | Event: caf-tog-cdr-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: elc-hul-cha-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Botswana win on 2025-10-09? | Event: caf-bot-uga-2025-10-09 | Choic... | no | 0 | ucl-liv-rma-2025-11-04 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-04? | 78,609,714 | 78,853,823 |
f3ea656b4021b652a10d76d03f2ce61d04f7d642 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x572037f41703ebccec56a87194423171f132f3664c389232585afde186c2c0bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: elc-hul-cha-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Botswana win on 2025-10-09? | Event: caf-bot-uga-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich Town FC vs. Charlton Athletic FC end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | ucl-aja-gal-2025-11-05 | Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-05? | 78,654,315 | 78,654,315 |
f7f5fbef19121a3dd1aa02f12c9ca62e460dd7df | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x2eaf32a9d19d7f7cdab22646772970568083586975475fca22b8147e5f750e90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Botswana win on 2025-10-09? | Event: caf-bot-uga-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich Town FC vs. Charlton Athletic FC end in a draw? | Event: elc-ips-cha-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Preston North End FC win on 2025-10-24? ... | yes | 1 | uel-din6-cel4-2025-11-06 | Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-11-06? | 78,682,578 | 78,682,578 |
d93387769726d284ce0a514c5eb263848567f142 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x3725b2941aa07ad71c5ab2e17b3151416b2ca8dfbd51530fd3c35d37559d267e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ipswich Town FC vs. Charlton Athletic FC end in a draw? | Event: elc-ips-cha-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Preston North End FC win on 2025-10-24? | Event: elc-pne-she-2025-10-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | uel-mid1-cel3-2025-11-06 | Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-11-06? | 78,707,988 | 78,707,988 |
84874c3e977bf48122d73e966b03bd2bff9aa31a | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x57516b64008af2afe88194125d595975a388dce368eae51cdd66c4f58cb5aba0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Preston North End FC win on 2025-10-24? | Event: elc-pne-she-2025-10-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: elc-cov-wat-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-scf1-u... | yes | 1 | uel-ast4-mta1-2025-11-06 | Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-11-06? | 78,707,988 | 78,707,988 |
43af061ae6ee8c9584aaf7af6b57d69409c7a12b | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x744e7ac15f6a6b72576a12358e8ee5a95e48a2ef8b298d7f5df0ad249540e38b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: elc-cov-wat-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-scf1-utr1-2025-10-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-k... | no | 1 | uel-plz1-fen1-2025-11-06 | Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-11-06? | 78,707,988 | 78,707,988 |
7044c28e8a3951353e70366b8af796631c6728c3 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x5af07b569498ff670ab7900f7fa8bd8e9f5b092c6e497cf32a9e18ca9b2499fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-scf1-utr1-2025-10-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl... | no | 1 | elc-wat-bri-2025-11-07 | Will Watford FC win on 2025-11-07? | 78,740,741 | 78,740,741 |
d814042f2231f4a539ca4644547b6fd9cda4c638 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xea038ac9034aa7733e8a5b6b595135c3ff29dedcc6b3102f552799995dbbd804 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-vil-mnc-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2025-10-25? | E... | yes | 1 | bun-wer-wol-2025-11-07 | Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-11-07? | 78,740,741 | 78,740,741 |
1fe092e52c6772d4c333827d7d6c1f2e78f458c3 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x21c07ac87a26a800b8b05ba58c3f0e55b76f1c917b25a4b6409f29eb26770292 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-vil-mnc-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: elc-swe-oxf-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-25? | Event:... | yes | 1 | elc-mid-bir-2025-11-08 | Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2025-11-08? | 78,764,119 | 78,764,119 |
7166ac60dcd109116ba69be9fbdcf64528e6d4fb | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x39394f14d9027e76034a5d662fb3a453391b6f121112c22e4606fe27bb67a917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: elc-swe-oxf-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Millwall FC vs. Stoke City FC end in a draw? |... | no | 1 | bun-hsv-dor-2025-11-08 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08? | 78,764,119 | 78,764,119 |
d8b6e58481ef101fc7761e8e140b66530b91668c | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x11e8dab17e795ca791e04e84f6763e8a3ab36c4960318ba725184ac099ff9dc6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Millwall FC vs. Stoke City FC end in a draw? | Event: elc-mil-sto-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Derby County FC vs. Norwich City FC end in ... | no | 1 | ere-exc-her-2025-11-08 | Will SBV Excelsior win on 2025-11-08? | 78,784,742 | 78,784,742 |
9f5e0716993230abadcfda170056037344bad31e | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xa80412f685bd630e815fc503fdebb6937254dd3610954a31de887cae5c51cc26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Millwall FC vs. Stoke City FC end in a draw? | Event: elc-mil-sto-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Derby County FC vs. Norwich City FC end in a draw? | Event: elc-der-nor-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 202... | no | 1 | fl1-hac-nan-2025-11-08 | Will Le Havre AC win on 2025-11-08? | 78,784,742 | 78,784,742 |
951dfb861df4233d6c0e8a6aca9682d0b6823e3b | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xa18b3633bebf67ca0fc289506972a40772bc03a61c7511d9240c4eb9d5ea3e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Derby County FC vs. Norwich City FC end in a draw? | Event: elc-der-nor-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31? | Event: bun-aug-dor-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-11-01? | Event:... | yes | 1 | ere-utr-aja-2025-11-09 | Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-11-09? | 78,802,497 | 78,802,497 |
ca2387734d2e9af834312ed4cc0671ffeae3b0be | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x0a39350f935e3833fdb330c6ce7cfa8fb2d230e11689ac23f2c0e573cc185e2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31? | Event: bun-aug-dor-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-bri-lee-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-cry-bre-2025... | yes | 1 | ere-az-psv-2025-11-09 | Will PSV win on 2025-11-09? | 78,810,458 | 78,810,458 |
67fe94b52adbabd2d674d809327463b2d1d74e5d | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xeec5753bde5137d8a76b75e973b8e3ceb80d3e0125fb4357dff9063d3c7f105f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-bri-lee-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-cry-bre-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-bur-ars-2025-11-01 | C... | yes | 1 | fl1-str-lil-2025-11-09 | Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-11-09? | 78,810,458 | 78,810,458 |
7f4fc3925ef5f8af60ddf691ab573893698e088d | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x13bacc477a9b3cd180003f5bc78caedfbb7c7b8d688d0c8291bba974b57fadb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-cry-bre-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-bur-ars-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: elc-cha-swa-20... | no | 1 | f1-brazilian-grand-prix-winner-2025-11-09 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | 78,848,499 | 78,848,499 |
0eb79c71aea1ba94f69093099b6fc25ced261192 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xea7ce583907175cb8d7ba71c21afcfb6f70fc63d71420f2dc24447d665835ee6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-bur-ars-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: elc-cha-swa-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Southampton FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: elc-sot-pne-202... | yes | 1 | lal-mal-get-2025-11-09 | Will Mallorca win on 2025-11-09? | 78,848,499 | 78,848,499 |
d75af2a519d5ea069f92980b05ced4a9761ff996 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x0eb64f96119793960339f7b86d0b1500432206173f34e74f0d63b252e5ff188f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: elc-cha-swa-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: elc-sot-pne-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-wes-new-20... | yes | 1 | epl-not-mun-2025-11-01 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? | 78,853,821 | 78,853,821 |
919ca0275dc1c8829cab67fc488a02abe88ba889 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x155b02e8682e4016a89028190c836b305ed0a8cd7704bf9005a41c15c47ac08c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Southampton FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: elc-sot-pne-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-wes-new-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will GroenLinks–PvdA win 26–28 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliam... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-3nd-most-seats-in-netherlands-election | Will the Democrats 66 win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,853,821 | 78,853,821 |
7b4d44700db1362e01ef6a04f174d08fa2b09b99 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x2d09ae9b528352527f0b082fd41200659f405982d4bbd99e77f9bab666619155 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-wes-new-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will GroenLinks–PvdA win 26–28 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: dutch-parliamentary-election-groenlinkspvda-seats | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | dutch-parliamentary-election-pvv-seats | Will PVV win 33 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,853,821 | 78,853,821 |
2a1ad076e67a9f6903654c0a6bf60419a875fa56 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x2e74dd2439a9b97a8c62e54e8ba07671e1238b7addc8971949b1b70b50e33de7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GroenLinks–PvdA win 26–28 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: dutch-parliamentary-election-groenlinkspvda-seats | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary el... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-netherlands-election | Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,853,821 | 78,853,821 |
c748f8ba2a758c3eddc2924f11b1751e9caf4162 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x438abea70b463cf819f8717256cda116618d03f9bab63410174ffc11289e6ca6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: netherlands-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | ... | yes | 1 | nof1ai-trading-competition-biggest-loser | Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat lose the NOF1.ai competition? | 78,853,821 | 78,853,821 |
fbdf375a374a4b93175d017b32286729240ba0c8 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x4e2eceaa644d438281d2dd7cafa204581ef4ebc62fba2879e1e41971098c6ad0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: netherlands-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: netherlands-... | yes | 1 | nof1ai-ai-trading-competition-winner | Will Anthropic’s Claude 4.5 Sonnet win the NOF1.ai competition? | 78,853,821 | 78,853,821 |
9b4a5d7cf982fbf21881937499c62a5946834248 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x59ab85c73b5a2b84ee3414fbff52300988abd79389b58f5de71b9fc5af03cc39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: netherlands-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition? | Event: nof1ai-ai-trading-competition-winner | Choice:... | no | 1 | how-many-seats-will-the-christian-democratic-appeal-cda-win-in-the-upcoming-dutch-parliamentary-election | Will CDA win 21 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,853,821 | 78,853,821 |
d6ede6958f3a1fc2c13a3aee2a0b9226ee3039ee | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x82b2852e240d6dbbb2f6a480bbf5a3d2f7cbe316f21863b5b05d21b00c823ef3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition? | Event: nof1ai-ai-trading-competition-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999698670052781
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-11-03? | Event: epl-sun-eve-2025-11-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on ... | yes | 1 | netherlands-election-which-major-party-wins-fewest-seats | Will PVV win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election? | 78,853,821 | 78,853,821 |
3406f330ceba4c650e0b5899f5ca23e6416a78dd | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xcb281d0fd238912e5c02289a3db7e3731375fc433f11963dbb0ccba3d3b7e015 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-11-03? | Event: epl-sun-eve-2025-11-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-juv-spo-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-bog-asm-2025-11-04 | C... | yes | 1 | netherlands-election-which-major-party-wins-fewest-seats | Will GL/PvdA win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election? | 78,853,821 | 78,853,821 |
6b4c0a0812ab85f353acda5235fe6b6a993ace51 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xd048e23de007e5ad73d6b5f47522e771b48d93ad9d2b755d107a474e57892e9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-juv-spo-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-bog-asm-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-nap-fra-2025-11-04 ... | no | 1 | dutch-parliamentary-election-pvv-seats | Will PVV win 26 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,853,821 | 78,853,821 |
fd6e146c1cfbe69c9da391f821c7b84b15c5c4a2 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xd1b74ca65f1b363e84d1ac1821ace006c2628e4ea64990e3ea8cb941ef95a24b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-bog-asm-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-nap-fra-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.25
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 ... | yes | 1 | nof1ai-ai-trading-competition-winner | Will Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro win the NOF1.ai competition? | 78,853,821 | 78,853,821 |
4839a67b2b1d8768cd584933c0f00f608c785bf1 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xfa88f331c9db14586cb2201439c6aed2ee2bfeed506c2b2b4a43db79f059caff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-nap-fra-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.25
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.24997481790451115
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-liv-... | yes | 0.850163 | dutch-parliamentary-election-pvv-seats | Will PVV win 27–29 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,853,821 | 78,853,821 |
defbcc1635d20924773004fc5575121a336dc92c | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x3ae5d45551a0e307be64d6e319b74d1bcece76786875a5d7fab7f7233ff65dc6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.24997481790451115
2. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-liv-rma-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-a... | no | 1 | netherlands-parliamentary-election-d66-seats | Will D66 win 20 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,853,822 | 78,853,822 |
669ff8d0324d7d987d210619c45d50a39db9fb65 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x4db9275e5f8569987a240fae43a0f75dcf462a13ad41f61e9cb49fe6ee5b6da9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-liv-rma-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-aja-gal-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-din6-cel4-... | yes | 1 | netherlands-parliamentary-election-d66-seats | Will D66 win fewer than 16 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,853,822 | 78,853,822 |
32f93a15f86f5f1c9c6ce4f752987fc6358f1250 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x7e5bb70106e53fc66aca39b389c7222d2c8eda15ca302ae0092b5c24940037c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-aja-gal-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-din6-cel4-2025-11-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-mid1-... | yes | 1 | nof1ai-trading-competition-biggest-loser | Will xAI’s Grok 4 lose the NOF1.ai competition? | 78,853,822 | 78,853,822 |
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