sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
911d0f1e5f0f5b2b22c7491031ce7f85a4617ad6 | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0x6ff905c6644a7ec395701ecfc0700122fbb2f12ee0f8fd90cedbf81721dd3f71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-4-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 2PM ET | 79,885,788 | 79,886,702 |
c437575d7b36a965f5f02cea7327c367e94ad5ea | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0xc183a1385ae2b3b5746f273ae1630a3cc09493fc2729d6c457597d5d7ad1f5ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-december-4-3pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 3PM ET | 79,888,526 | 79,888,526 |
0c542f807092be05882730f058cc0a11131e0016 | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0x90b59374ab5b3888e3e62f5892fbfbc52b6f4e84c85f8b17a11972fdc0dbb3e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-december-4-6pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 6PM ET | 79,893,859 | 79,893,859 |
7068a278fe4982bd2e929127a10ac6aaa2e0dfcd | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0x44fe754a646d31ce94a2d0a56cd71f71e008dcb5672a4c25fc21316d3221a020 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-4-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 11PM ET | 79,902,447 | 79,922,819 |
da1d5a31513561c121129fff50695c4c06da5f10 | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0x9e2f476bfe656a31ee95237bed55f4bd29858acfd5c67a7c6c00d94ce5d4b5ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-december-4-11pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 11PM ET | 79,902,460 | 79,922,819 |
808dc419410917696096732d3bbca6cd7481ea32 | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0x33a137ead0baf8057312245f1d7d937a669f89f58621bf101c178e468fa9a6ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-december-5-11am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - December 5, 11AM ET | 79,924,369 | 79,924,369 |
3bde9e9946368ecb109c48f9a98178fc2f807cd4 | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0xa2c5f6c9df1eabaf657c790198cb3b8244a17854060fe7c2d0bbe3c034eb177d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-5-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 11AM ET | 79,924,374 | 79,924,374 |
04c9e35f8dceb0debb9b808bad457427026586a4 | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0xe2e76252f7455bd49e30402081c998047ddeabf23c16c466eef051125e4ffe7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-5-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 12PM ET | 79,926,440 | 79,926,440 |
116ff7aa6f9cc3d98b49122e0aa99a9485c38bcb | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0xccf160e128269fdc05724adc519454d5f36522d1d7e82d453b58d9df42ddf14e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-5-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 1PM ET | 79,928,039 | 79,928,039 |
fecc78b990be9100d63aebf3726afc770e1382f1 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x799e0a99312e7daca333239e42978ef2e4cc42f4a0e73fe2a749883a064538bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle?
Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | 60,163,381 | 60,163,381 |
a12b7a8e86950d95976a4739cae43f9875126c86 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0xcd6a88e3fb82c57c3df94a0ccc545303684c75afffdac4c47c61a8d821ae5467 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes?
Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be
Predict the user's choice and confidenc... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | 60,955,382 | 60,955,382 |
5e2f085227b4a4b2e781afe4269766af7a55c040 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0xfcebd42e5d8a18bc4ac058ae6581384ef459e2459161b7b9c8c5140aa7743108 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Que... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Kamala Harris DNC speech under 30 minutes? | 60,955,382 | 60,955,382 |
dc0770cdaab61177da94d67d0ee7bef022808485 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x04787bbd66241501604f377f11b897879c1593b019bb3363dac0a73e99b4a131 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | yes | 1 | how-many-fed-rate-cuts-this-year | Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024? | 62,061,584 | 62,061,584 |
7d38a24133f018fee280b77dd6f3891cabe6da4e | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x29bdf54d14e9ec1b2777ef02b4ff0180edf9a27b303a2099adf5f47890a45111 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | no | 1 | azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 62,061,584 | 62,061,584 |
832d59291c17ee43f662925722e4f57296759d6d | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x664ea3af3aea2018880ea3ac01252a5bd1a6dfbb408b096ed459872e447320fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | no | 1 | azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Lewis Hamilton win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 62,061,584 | 62,061,584 |
59f1928e49b89819756c950085076ed499071d26 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x860abe3ab40108b1a09819d7375b608b361252669a325cdd0bf0b6505cd2a1d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | no | 1 | azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Will George Russell win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 62,061,584 | 62,061,584 |
fcac1e7395471d06eaf3dfab91a8126d81ef9c3a | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0xb386cfbbd9cf4e419bdb3674af8c4781d615491ff8005885231be83fefa11aca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | no | 1 | azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 62,061,584 | 62,061,584 |
a9e561051d3eb44a081e11f3932903c5905e5d0d | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0xb5a87e2a85485cec85d30ff72e8353eb5242cadc2e19093c2d75622e7d4a3667 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | no | 1 | azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Carlos Sainz win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 62,061,584 | 62,061,584 |
7dfe1879bd7bfea5ec97713f9434a4e2b092f4fc | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0xc5996f9b3f743c440ed683ba4d8ee08a0218962df53be2af55bd40f96c69e825 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | no | 1 | azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 62,061,584 | 62,061,584 |
c5188817488621877368fe00abfcc6086d2b0563 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x338cfb50128d1b8d2da0527d04e74e6a7ad127c95b7c5e1ca0f694fb38e31f80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | no | 1 | azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 62,061,586 | 62,061,586 |
e8b4b8c5cad75d68eba70cd395d386e1b2cca42b | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x0ba563f925964c85ddd8309db4d8f5e193c0379b34465c6bdd92988d9ab5660c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | no | 1 | singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Sergio Perez win the Singapore Grand Prix? | 62,484,189 | 62,484,189 |
1b22866248fa448cd365c5ceb755b8d877dea272 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x5107a55d323a08369382e5dd6f44dc76c67e8ef1575dc0d66b9329d73531c5fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | no | 1 | singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Carlos Sainz win the Singapore Grand Prix? | 62,484,189 | 62,484,189 |
01a2bf67065e3e041d62a87b083bb1876e2294c8 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x6ec7241d69f82c4bef15aef7fed788f5c36d85694a576de999ad09a067f3f497 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | no | 1 | singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Lewis Hamilton win the Singapore Grand Prix? | 62,484,189 | 62,484,189 |
af4bae0eed0cb6e7bcbdf4cdb01522633ae15972 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x9462d15cc91e1bb685b128d96efc67d5ad2bfcf6fbe66e3d5a1a4216c7b932e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | no | 1 | singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Lando Norris win the Singapore Grand Prix? | 62,484,189 | 62,484,189 |
746233af152b9457256ef91e476994ee10e4d487 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0xa5f26db1db70bd1d53ab107c12872bfbe930dc38280400e4b59fea24c20650af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | no | 1 | singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the Singapore Grand Prix? | 62,484,189 | 62,484,189 |
1b431893233cfaabc4589b0379d79951ded46353 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0xccd21676ac1c4bec1ffb53517cef4eda06d9469d7a409345f20ad92e73035749 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | no | 1 | singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the Singapore Grand Prix? | 62,484,189 | 62,484,189 |
fd49f0b6844cbd83bbe0743b007057f74a4a4ef4 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0xd2827f3767400cb33b8ed82e6a3513a7311a24ce52e4fce039636fa280aeba8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | no | 1 | singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the Singapore Grand Prix? | 62,484,189 | 62,484,189 |
241e78e6d7b8ad1ac1241a417037b7ca908628cb | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x0f3e90a228049a07f929192a8dd725104b88d5c7da35b1e39c2f0ee41df1bb5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | yes | 1 | us-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the United States Grand Prix? | 63,312,538 | 63,312,538 |
6848615d1f04acaf8622d8e50485723f4cd1349c | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x104382b636ebdd85f720e1ed740b604759891439bd2e83dbedba3683141b252d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | yes | 1 | mexican-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the Mexico City Grand Prix? | 63,597,903 | 63,597,903 |
6dc109f5c6b04469f6b584041754c8133af2d8b8 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x3fcd022f7cb9d2827406e773911a6a62b1db8014bd3670d931bad29aed0205bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | yes | 1 | mexican-grand-prix-winner | Will Carlos Sainz win the Mexico City Grand Prix? | 63,597,903 | 63,597,903 |
92f4f214d23caacf6a392f1f791b33c7ff75414c | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x9656266701609c4bd4ce21e4fde24ebeffb263eb8ce3180688766d58e99cafcd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | yes | 1 | mexican-grand-prix-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the Mexico City Grand Prix? | 63,597,903 | 63,597,903 |
49f6a0fd87e75aaacd0cdb742df97266e14efd71 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x15176850f899c1587a2cc9d21f11a055834fe9f6d3199e3d482ad5c69f0441ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Will NDP win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | 63,805,713 | 63,805,713 |
d4ef978b4f1ee293642aca87c478eb310e8deb51 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x0d919caddc3acdef4a2bf0f0300c2d05e21ada3e26d426b9cfd4c0676d802807 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | yes | 1 | brazlian-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the Brazilian Grand Prix? | 63,878,076 | 63,878,076 |
d1777220723760e4d7361197d3de171fe9bdc5c3 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x683f40d5a900755748eec349227b816b116306ee807b7e99588a704973c7a36d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | yes | 1 | brazlian-grand-prix-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the Brazilian Grand Prix? | 63,878,076 | 63,878,076 |
948d71c99f15497f773524b2ad5c7c66c0878239 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0xb756291f0a417f4455272ea827a76f0e32363b64da538237b33eab9786999924 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | no | 1 | brazlian-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the Brazilian Grand Prix? | 63,878,076 | 63,878,076 |
6c8b16a71f26f27bc522ba7305c61037b2e8af5c | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0xb98b13e59e84b1110c9b737e7b7b798c2f0aec1c762b9f4dce75a602ba8b23ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | yes | 1 | brazlian-grand-prix-winner | Will Carlos Sainz win the Brazilian Grand Prix? | 63,878,076 | 63,878,076 |
aa36aaca349b958a9893d4c394b805dc3653898c | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,968,151 | 63,968,151 |
338e014f53dc9cb29dfeb9975f19d0a9ee704b6a | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x181d3973148c9f1a27c5a5bc7fc95845d6be15c7fe35a88ebb4fc60255036609 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | no | 1 | how-many-states-will-nate-silver-call-correctly | Will Silver call 47 states correctly? | 64,166,993 | 64,166,993 |
ab92fcbfdc2da2c2cb1a1a69d44328cee937c8cd | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x7e182cdc2272a0ffeba63fad3f4c614da2e182d14111a61827e507fdaff7aebd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | no | 1 | how-many-states-will-538-call-correctly | Will 538 call 46 states correctly? | 64,166,993 | 64,166,993 |
b7c844582941bc0b21053d8af71d8cd0991c309f | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x265366ede72d73e137b2b9095a6cdc9be6149290caa295738a95e3d881ad0865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | 64,530,963 | 64,530,963 |
a7b0e2bc22a0ce2621481adacc3a5bebce37dd16 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0xe5dbb6dbb65688c54459c30ad65f3d2991537bf5f67518362659b813aa350bfa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 30-45 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech under 30 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fed cut int... | yes | 1 | las-vegas-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | 64,797,974 | 64,797,974 |
00dff0c9db6221e6fa409d545203c4bf4bad4d97 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x06dbb4af8bb017b03f9433937a2391be9d8432b083022ae6e2ffeb13e28433ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech under 30 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024? | Event: how-many-fed-rate-cuts-this-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win... | no | 1 | qatar-grand-prix-winner | Will Lando Norris win the Qatar Grand Prix? | 65,003,212 | 65,003,212 |
8f3d880baafce7136191d0951cb00b9b515e6c2d | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x2a655d05d82bbe2424f0f4df3446a7962542d67fbc98cf6adef37fffc1fcf557 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024? | Event: how-many-fed-rate-cuts-this-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton win the Aze... | yes | 1 | qatar-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the Qatar Grand Prix? | 65,003,212 | 65,003,212 |
d2cba0934225ae7b46e1265ea1bd5e6d8c2fe246 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x5e75eef5731507d42815c99382675eefc96c82a05f802e1f8b32254dbb2c8c8d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will George Russell win the Aze... | no | 1 | qatar-grand-prix-winner | Will George Russell win the Qatar Grand Prix? | 65,003,212 | 65,003,212 |
ba6d8fd90878b11e04227bd33fc72272d34d9ad1 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0x68d616fee31ec7740a301dd044ca07b09a54a95d89070f453290ef32b15a554d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will George Russell win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the ... | no | 1 | qatar-grand-prix-winner | Will Sergio Perez win the Qatar Grand Prix? | 65,003,212 | 65,003,212 |
a0b0fa98e6a954ae5809a3ec9930435806c2f132 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0xe8676bcc7f4343ea06ea5733ae250a46fbfb64a951406f0728c4cee1d33c34a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will George Russell win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Az... | yes | 1 | qatar-grand-prix-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the Qatar Grand Prix? | 65,003,212 | 65,003,212 |
3832cbadc627e3f419ebba3e0924eaf1b24abe51 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0xee2e38c3d30a1696197ffa7f75b0add15d69844df51c55cd36136416d1d1f6bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Az... | yes | 1 | f1-constructors-championship-winner | Will Red Bull win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship? | 65,003,212 | 65,003,212 |
30fc5e4fa81093b51862fc3f6eddff7b43bbc4a3 | 0x36316cb8c9d71d1d3aba67c54a5c0891ac77e526 | 0xd280ef888530239f255b3efc0487a9f4d28039d24f50d8080a51a75927bc1a3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the Azer... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Bears win Super Bowl 2025? | 65,891,667 | 65,891,667 |
dd516ac7192d9cbfa8bf36d6a9ec77576a13f2ca | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xe169048eb73a341d003738eb33f6af46cd332f6ba692ccbb9b616e550b083a15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27?
Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | 63,566,869 | 63,566,869 |
d1bf3ccaa6f16e73a65fc26955d4a3b25ccbb66c | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x45f56ddbd65f2d6203fdacbc827a6dbd61f2ba6f7530d6792c18a8f7c3e22c86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or?
Event: ballon-dor-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidenc... | yes | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | 63,637,488 | 63,637,488 |
de593efb83d0516ac7d18af3dcd7ddd6f1d10e76 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x04e7126c4a47acb718ed0da37f0cae9adcaa69e32e4554b51050dfe7991adf22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal?
Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal... | yes | 1 | ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | 63,988,043 | 63,988,043 |
374856b6954ae830a504ded3744a149631bd5a85 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x1a6de22406827e608e326c42975d77d3949272b45d23dfe46a4ffbf74bbcab5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-stuttgart-vs-atalanta | Will Atalanta beat Stuttgart? | 63,988,065 | 63,988,065 |
40cd1b7976eced0bb914c40ec1a753fcd47ebf3c | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x86a3324ea5817ed343ae180cf994349eaa4f8cd38071b67415a86023b07913ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-bayern-munich-vs-benfica | Will the match between Bayern Munich and Benfica end in a draw? | 63,988,071 | 63,988,071 |
f4b463d9da3eb7b414bc1547cac8c22985cd49cd | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x7b30559109e5a8edb0aea12bf209e7242328d0f650a876dfb39b0d5e5d345160 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | 64,119,257 | 64,119,257 |
41107fb725697f1b0a67e9e3d65645fca629e7ba | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x02ec657965262158c77881ea43715ddce265d9b40c37a1ae8d2be4ad9e40960a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | epl-che-ars-2024-11-10 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-10? | 64,283,330 | 64,283,330 |
0e975f383daf9c88ac22b92b0319221150c805b6 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xcd1b6b71a1964f15e2c14809594cbfa0d576270e8ef94c8c24913121097e09e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | 64,283,330 | 64,283,330 |
e2c7cc2391b5afe6efb1abe6490984069bbb9795 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xc27d074ce2dd90beb2fd13526137a0986420721cbe59efbacced0d830093a7ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-belgium-vs-italy | Will Belgium beat Italy? | 64,308,348 | 64,308,348 |
9fbc79712d6ecb796345b398983acdb2eb56f6b7 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xe9e4dad63931d29f67db8eb8ad76fcbf4be391ece37372b0ebcb1e0aee00675d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-greece-vs-england | Will England beat Greece? | 64,308,348 | 64,308,348 |
809a0cad721ac5f01d34e27319243e55279563c2 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x072847ede14de86f04993bcdd3f35b1a916739f3c108afe476a1eb5cfda916d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-poland | Will Poland beat Portugal? | 64,349,255 | 64,349,255 |
4a4639f0ee8c86f2a83e6ad03a1d17f019116913 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x80fbf88f56b1495dd346044e7bdb31ceaac6945032a58fa69039bebe1cffd2e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-scotland-vs-croatia | Will Croatia beat Scotland? | 64,349,255 | 64,349,255 |
afcddcc5aed4aaccd1179ff8b5d0b4f660e2fded | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x846f16b4d01546b462d0518a839b186091490ae925ad57a7730c30b90e34203b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-denmark-vs-spain | Will Spain beat Denmark? | 64,349,255 | 64,349,255 |
c9268dc5cecdbae839a51a95c0f9583008399b70 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x62dc4f475f72b31070bd00cee710a20ab6d5154ca7a9e9279c14634a6ec04a01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | nevada-margin-of-victory | Will the Republican candidate win Nevada by 2.0%-3.0%? | 64,798,122 | 64,798,122 |
816181affe5d223a45213d5abbda5b2c8f0e6a7e | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x0eb7e16833d8313f82d98f1d04ce5fa6cb6941a50212b3e64b1566db815f13b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-monaco-vs-benfica | Will Benfica beat AS Monaco? | 64,840,151 | 64,840,151 |
491b0e432ffd364769d8c0f5fb76dbc26ebebdc5 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x4c12fd632b2808ce2f028decc887c33a9e4d6e12eb22409ba627795349cea701 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-celtic-vs-club-brugge | Will Club Brugge beat Celtic? | 64,840,151 | 64,840,151 |
54a95315fbd3028862bd1826c11e976ab2e2f5ce | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x60cb346cf5918a21b559cef8d3193e16cd441e09c42bd79208ba9c5eff1987f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-liverpool-vs-real-madrid-nov-27 | Will Real Madrid beat Liverpool? | 64,840,151 | 64,840,151 |
28aa1029d2b0e907cd9d81b7fdbcba547d55430a | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x7d9622b658693d3740530226f6f2e7164f6102a6b41e4288059746f7a4439ed9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-bologna-vs-losc-lille | Will LOSC Lille beat Bologna? | 64,840,151 | 64,840,151 |
10b1b0716c22dda8678f92c4f488fac9c23f142a | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xdcaea03dce14ad7a529b505ab9ef5d6ee4fc08f0468d4eaf9153253e0ec2de76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-borussia-dortmund | Will Dinamo Zagreb beat Borussia Dortmund? | 64,840,151 | 64,840,151 |
c1627c8eaa146f4418afb5f529dc55c5071b7b50 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x94c41e0fe4a91792bfa913b8f6f13586f4b01c8cf0c2c2b23cb2dbedcf75c2e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | europa-league-dynamo-kyiv-vs-viktoria-plzen | Will Viktoria Plzen beat Dynamo Kyiv? | 64,852,125 | 64,852,125 |
712e5c3515e05fd7e121b6e42116017a3ffd6efb | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x50e40f9262128e21edba3c6a19b2ef953ad207fe1770f889432a6c176a509efb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-cry-2024-12-03 | Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-03? | 65,069,451 | 65,069,451 |
c318121782c49db7b2b41bb8f8130d5ef7b0ab86 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x60c27091000c2ee53d995e92bb1eb4b9cb61982fd1e70122368d227be0c07752 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-wes-2024-12-03 | Will West Ham win on 2024-12-03? | 65,069,451 | 65,069,451 |
42d3f616644c5b71780e40a0d51a7f5578ca32bc | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xbadc8579ed9434c3e923d162aa6c10f323c9612f5aefc497d8b2db04430f4e02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-aston-villa | Will Aston Villa beat RB Leipzig? | 65,342,154 | 65,342,154 |
c4309f46954de95502982206acb5a79339340ef9 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xcab94731cfcdc78cbba150723ecbed922bf317db497cdcaf2b402329caf51b28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-atalanta-vs-real-madrid | Will Real Madrid beat Atalanta? | 65,342,154 | 65,342,154 |
c015a2b4f6091a93dce972b8f21715783623d689 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x48e738f20907d3c5e0f5ce6f8b54c199ef5477edef01e24b706721fcfa63355c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Will Manchester City beat Juventus? | 65,384,627 | 65,384,627 |
9bbfff975e7826387dca1c45d4b084075f4766af | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x8e637d4f7aecdcdfa95470e8c24c02d27152e3253cb5e676675f27178f570313 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-stuttgart-vs-young-boys | Will Stuttgart beat Young Boys? | 65,384,627 | 65,384,627 |
a463b013ea9cae9744983f8b6501ecdef27542af | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xdfe01fb59a2a471871af7c87c4cf89beb314bddce45795b548101ab1cd461101 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Will Juventus beat Manchester City? | 65,384,627 | 65,384,627 |
df51c1e44be47766baccd6b44314a87a68d70c45 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xe857bb26a7c5b3ac6511adb86619400ce27743c79bdb66468d190976252d4c9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-borussia-dortmund-vs-barcelona | Will Barcelona beat Borussia Dortmund? | 65,384,627 | 65,384,627 |
b4b42425b1aa12fb68840d78ccc83e63c8cfd3b9 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x0dfc286abc4e61acf80284882330e7f6a20ff8e5f4fff757912349c5f7d298ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | popular-vote-margin-of-victory-0pt25-ranges | GOP wins popular vote by less than 1.5%? | 65,691,331 | 65,691,331 |
12b8058fe0cfa01e0c348ef189ab7dc9d949800f | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xacedef109bc86502ba263a768545470197634b12d7cd0eefddd7f306172b360c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024? | 66,196,481 | 66,196,481 |
eeb1de75e0aa04956b80b5f7425efa76a73cfac2 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x0357da7e4f6fe0d1c0aea86eda2ce0315256524e0f8741f43f699eb301cd2629 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-wes-2025-01-04 | Will West Ham win on 2025-01-04? | 66,682,810 | 66,682,810 |
44b9d1dd964d0a300fa33477937ab79a725503d9 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xed8162dcbabc3653ddcf5cfc32129461c157a48c023e92b09c112aaf3029a9db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-atalanta | Choic... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-lei-2025-01-04 | Will Leicester win on 2025-01-04? | 66,682,810 | 66,682,810 |
638a2aadd5eed9d4dba7a9cd287ec4b2ff7e7d8f | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x06b3d531a2d3cf11aa9d256d9430d56732fb396a71f63b447a3d8acb2d681725 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Bayern Munich and Benfica end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | ucl-rb-salzburg-vs-atletico-madrid | Will Atletico Madrid beat RB Salzburg? | 67,367,054 | 67,367,054 |
7fa3c71b945955070081606873510145133c66dc | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x2fd635f5977bf779adf479a85555f86ba4af42ddb98e1ccc1311ef0cfdaf63cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Bayern Munich and Benfica end in a draw? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | E... | yes | 1 | ucl-young-boys-vs-red-star-belgrade | Will Young Boys beat Red Star Belgrade? | 67,367,054 | 67,367,054 |
55c4755aa3fd6d8c8354a32c9b4321d7ad714f7c | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x48fe76030b9aa18aaa84d3ce8578ff5b42619e554954ee23f104305419fa8697 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between Bayern Munich and Benfica end in a draw? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-10? | Ev... | yes | 1 | ucl-borussia-dortmund-vs-shakhtar-donetsk | Will the match between Borussia Dortmund and Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw? | 67,367,054 | 67,367,054 |
0796d698fc7a9af7832259dbd78b98675e3d2f42 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x559ca0e204ced9e61edfeace80fdff426a32123f3cb8eb0d8fd01a3ade701bc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-che-ars-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? ... | yes | 1 | ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | 67,367,054 | 67,367,054 |
5bff5e203a896161b55e8e0c6ca80b552e08c9ec | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x6833fc8a87fb47bea27387c0e94a8c7007c4b0c514fcc6cff605eae61b8ae768 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-che-ars-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belg... | yes | 1 | ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | 67,367,054 | 67,367,054 |
8ede377a4272ef96385102d8e949e21b41fff472 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x685cfe5dab22704f3fc55bfd0cf891704fd4f781633edf64539e7ca42a31c611 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Belgium beat Italy? | Event: uefa-nations-league-belgium-vs-italy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | ucl-aston-villa-vs-celtic | Will Aston Villa beat Celtic? | 67,367,054 | 67,367,054 |
ed08e6bf861aaaf69d981cae5f4da2416d28b69d | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x8ac98c10676ba2e6d3371676e3158d7cdcde8f4a9cf87fd9bf985c2aead2c07f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium beat Italy? | Event: uefa-nations-league-belgium-vs-italy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England beat Greece? | Event: uefa-nations-league-greece-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Poland beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-por... | yes | 1 | ucl-bayer-leverkusen-vs-sparta-praha | Will Bayer Leverkusen beat Sparta Praha? | 67,367,054 | 67,367,054 |
325e9cdf449551264f995720156fc777965ac241 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x9ee66f99ade6a2ca53f9df51baca870f05321b95cebd21d9d81fd07b73eea9aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England beat Greece? | Event: uefa-nations-league-greece-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Poland beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-poland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia beat Scotland? | Event: uefa-nations-leagu... | yes | 1 | ucl-stuttgart-vs-paris-saint-germain | Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Stuttgart? | 67,367,054 | 67,367,054 |
c67a8a807eb4840897799da0305079b3360a24ee | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xae08b0027bb1fb50c112e72da476cf4356989fe281e97930a8ee62236268ffe4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Poland beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-poland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Croatia beat Scotland? | Event: uefa-nations-league-scotland-vs-croatia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain beat Denmark? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | ucl-barcelona-vs-atalanta | Will Atalanta beat Barcelona? | 67,367,054 | 67,367,054 |
f5d7c715cb7035de0b248c1fb82b29e501599c9c | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x1ee1e5229ea745231e501f63c1000eb7f44ac937d5c6ac7d13e20b09418da484 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Croatia beat Scotland? | Event: uefa-nations-league-scotland-vs-croatia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spain beat Denmark? | Event: uefa-nations-league-denmark-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Nevada by 2.0%-3.0%? ... | yes | 1 | ucl-mac-rma-2025-02-11 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-11? | 67,826,149 | 67,826,149 |
630087715e8d5b15c0c4eef2c63279b6bfff1a1f | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x2fe995e213736dc5b35d3df31b7f68ed49aa64f42cdb34957bde747d89d58c6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain beat Denmark? | Event: uefa-nations-league-denmark-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Nevada by 2.0%-3.0%? | Event: nevada-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Benfica beat AS Monaco? | Event: ucl-m... | yes | 1 | ucl-spo-dor-2025-02-11 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-02-11? | 67,826,149 | 67,826,149 |
9cf41753cb8b87036169c739b5bae3fb18ae90f6 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xa2e422abeb4da91fc2cb421f134e1ed3bf3b4ddc5670811354584158797311ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Nevada by 2.0%-3.0%? | Event: nevada-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Benfica beat AS Monaco? | Event: ucl-monaco-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Club Brugge beat Celtic? | Event: ucl-celtic-vs-c... | yes | 1 | ucl-bru-ata-2025-02-12 | Will Atalanta win on 2025-02-12? | 67,959,640 | 67,959,640 |
9af87737892723e621b3a8484fb262a7c9eb6e34 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x4411688b128d9652bbad80a99ad722b63e47b4cabd0982f42510971744587c06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Benfica beat AS Monaco? | Event: ucl-monaco-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Brugge beat Celtic? | Event: ucl-celtic-vs-club-brugge | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Liverpool? | Event: ucl-liverpool-vs-real-madrid-nov-27 ... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election? | 68,353,560 | 68,353,560 |
35db3be013c2d39e156a7d5287a250c0a331c36a | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x6a36aa0afc59a38a42d40d6ad6f89a36bb69f9e50db41cf5a8731cf632cbbd0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Brugge beat Celtic? | Event: ucl-celtic-vs-club-brugge | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Liverpool? | Event: ucl-liverpool-vs-real-madrid-nov-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LOSC Lille beat Bologna? | Event: ucl-bologna-vs-losc-l... | yes | 1 | ucl-dor-lil-2025-03-04 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-04? | 68,669,970 | 68,669,970 |
4fcd0ee138dcb57d31dc2ca5b38532f51fff39fa | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x8cf7b4d170144ed22b738d4a8013ded59eec3686bfeae5fd7c9025e9998773a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Liverpool? | Event: ucl-liverpool-vs-real-madrid-nov-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LOSC Lille beat Bologna? | Event: ucl-bologna-vs-losc-lille | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: ucl-dina... | yes | 1 | ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-04? | 68,669,970 | 68,669,970 |
19d6f23a48d381c7326ab35776984219fac00e9f | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xce56c5077a15ca8367aa1975fd506c91d3093a334a728ad6254c60dca3ba317c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will LOSC Lille beat Bologna? | Event: ucl-bologna-vs-losc-lille | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Dynamo Kyiv? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-psv-ars-2025-03-04 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-04? | 68,669,970 | 68,669,970 |
b86f37a7530e2f792bccf27435b59a6612738f6e | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xb32063fa61bdfe52e0c72011e1268ad6f36ca3b0e00e10dadff90614bb286c01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Dynamo Kyiv? | Event: europa-league-dynamo-kyiv-vs-viktoria-plzen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2... | yes | 1 | ucl-fey-int-2025-03-05 | Will Inter win on 2025-03-05? | 68,694,408 | 68,694,408 |
54d6111fce1a0824daf3c416e748e9f5c9c73a18 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x891c92ef400365bd12188ce0a9330e8fbf4fd243a52648e301d6a0610e2d7144 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Dynamo Kyiv? | Event: europa-league-dynamo-kyiv-vs-viktoria-plzen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-03? | Event: epl-ips-cry-2024-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-03? | Event: epl-le... | yes | 1 | ucl-bay-b04-2025-03-05 | Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-03-05? | 68,709,316 | 68,709,316 |
2477e987cc2dcf83853268a1d1fcc3792cdecc64 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xa140b022455d5b876703d6bb535fa703a160f98ddf57731a95cba405bf963b84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-03? | Event: epl-ips-cry-2024-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-03? | Event: epl-lei-wes-2024-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-aston-villa |... | yes | 1 | ucl-ben-bar-2025-03-05 | Will Benfica win on 2025-03-05? | 68,709,316 | 68,709,316 |
538f4670c2634405d0c47cb72d40b55bc59c5257 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xfd2f29728ff61e19ff9aa3b59b3d28eae10d063e76eba0e503024cc0b22fb8cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-03? | Event: epl-lei-wes-2024-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-atalanta-vs-real-mad... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-liv-2025-03-05 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-05? | 68,709,316 | 68,709,316 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.