sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7bcb724ff48a13738d79e4842998cbdcbb4af27d | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x96eaa3c50838c339307265e6e1c90f70a5ac9015d93ca16d9950c88e7b5f8532 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-din6-cel4-2025-11-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-mid1-cel3-2025-11-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-ast... | yes | 1 | nof1ai-trading-competition-biggest-loser | Will Anthropic’s Claude 4.5 Sonnet lose the NOF1.ai competition? | 78,853,822 | 78,853,822 |
884f592b70afb63c39a9daa8a97389170046e1e0 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xd5cbe10a091dcd5adb64dac2665e6323878bb923d36a7a658d22a480e2e312a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-mid1-cel3-2025-11-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-ast4-mta1-2025-11-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-plz1-f... | yes | 1 | nof1ai-ai-trading-competition-winner | Will OpenAI’s GPT 5 win the NOF1.ai competition? | 78,853,822 | 78,853,822 |
88669fcbcf0d86331ed7299fc7c2195e9003bcf1 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xe1ae6ee2f48a8abbe1786b7a1bf18cbdc40ad3483e49188eb069737910c060d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-ast4-mta1-2025-11-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-plz1-fen1-2025-11-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Watford FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: elc-wat-bri-202... | no | 1 | uel-stu3-fey1-2025-11-06 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-06? | 78,853,822 | 78,853,822 |
5b834e0d96627b8dda8dda94390a5744b291b63d | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x0701bad6efa80d2739d8a0dc38a136c05429fc3a664792a0ccc1e73b82f45a56 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-plz1-fen1-2025-11-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Watford FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: elc-wat-bri-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-11-07? | Event: bun-wer-wol-2025-11... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-4nd-most-seats-in-netherlands-election | Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,853,823 | 78,853,823 |
1f45dde200af3ac677ab2ce950b115fb1dd0baf0 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x08054999521cc36dbc3d6f55e4ded362091323a6b5fcaff9f70d87683c7be8ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Watford FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: elc-wat-bri-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-11-07? | Event: bun-wer-wol-2025-11-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2025-11-08? | Event: elc-mid-bir-2025-... | no | 1 | elc-wre-cha-2025-11-08 | Will Wrexham AFC win on 2025-11-08? | 78,853,823 | 78,853,823 |
bbb53485cd4e58b81013c08013e8639a19997017 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x19711dee2bbf62810e927e65d16cd08a8dc38d3e92c7e58a3d7a03f2d3103011 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-11-07? | Event: bun-wer-wol-2025-11-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2025-11-08? | Event: elc-mid-bir-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08? | Event: bun-hsv-d... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-netherlands-parliamentary-election | Will turnout be between 75% and 78% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025? | 78,853,823 | 78,853,823 |
6f91321089a50e34fb3816cc86e1fb96bb0c3ccb | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x1ea319af55cbfc8ffbf7d596bdddb9626c2caf742c070ff6a6a78b92add55e1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2025-11-08? | Event: elc-mid-bir-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08? | Event: bun-hsv-dor-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SBV Excelsior win on 2025-11-08? | Event: ere-exc-he... | yes | 1 | sea-udi-ata-2025-11-01 | Will Atalanta win on 2025-11-01? | 78,853,823 | 78,853,823 |
c2097ae10cae05435a001d4ce77a7c9e69cfa25d | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x22f97d5172eb8780616fb90a020b8a291e259d0fc58bea7a3861237072cafcbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08? | Event: bun-hsv-dor-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SBV Excelsior win on 2025-11-08? | Event: ere-exc-her-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Le Havre AC win on 2025-11-08? | Event: fl1-hac-nan-2025... | yes | 1 | uel-crv1-lil2-2025-11-06 | Will Lille OSC win on 2025-11-06? | 78,853,823 | 78,853,823 |
1b328d63e4997597a18ad2f532a5eef95fcfa653 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x2a2c1ad33e5ada4bd6c3cfa5ffe8782dd176eb08a3e62067a7bb7ba3a3bba8e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SBV Excelsior win on 2025-11-08? | Event: ere-exc-her-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Le Havre AC win on 2025-11-08? | Event: fl1-hac-nan-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-11-09? | Event: ere-utr-aja-2025-11-09 ... | no | 1 | bun-stu-aug-2025-11-09 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-09? | 78,853,823 | 78,853,823 |
30ea3f2e43845b370a9755ee69044f099e0c6862 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x3050563c5b3a1996bde67a19e18faffa77323d43dc0625989ac4297b9e4b1406 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Le Havre AC win on 2025-11-08? | Event: fl1-hac-nan-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-11-09? | Event: ere-utr-aja-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV win on 2025-11-09? | Event: ere-az-psv-2025-11-09 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | uel-ogc1-scf1-2025-11-06 | Will OGC Nice win on 2025-11-06? | 78,853,823 | 78,853,823 |
ef16a08a0dbbc33c9064c52d9ed7d98f8125fb21 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x3ce231e354b9540cfed42bd9b858eca22d479a99bca7175f3a3b2e50878a97dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-11-09? | Event: ere-utr-aja-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSV win on 2025-11-09? | Event: ere-az-psv-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-11-09? | Event: fl1-str-lil-2025-11-09 ... | no | 1 | uel-bas1-ste1-2025-11-06 | Will FC Basel 1893 win on 2025-11-06? | 78,853,823 | 78,853,823 |
2d85d527ec6ed5be83250123a6b17b08706ae2ab | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x4164cca7c5da1cfc6d9684651f308188ddbbbd8fe1e54402f20c9df732386cd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSV win on 2025-11-09? | Event: ere-az-psv-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-11-09? | Event: fl1-str-lil-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-mun-2025-11-08 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08? | 78,853,823 | 78,853,823 |
e8fbbc858f67d007dee098d1e4c2a59f012898ff | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x4b056c88c27231f92f200eab292a1b0302d77196df783b20eefe2e857fd58f3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-11-09? | Event: fl1-str-lil-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-brazilian-grand-prix-winner-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mallorca win ... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-netherlands-parliamentary-election | Will turnout be between 72% and 75% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025? | 78,853,823 | 78,853,823 |
5e0e2f32d8f100891ab38e19d298688161fa7ab3 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x4f17343b1e1d8f56a60bc1d6e20228893902e6271b8a7df81e5a364be4e892c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-brazilian-grand-prix-winner-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-mal-get-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on ... | no | 1 | uel-rbs1-goa1-2025-11-06 | Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2025-11-06? | 78,853,823 | 78,853,823 |
507467bea4ed1bed9622476a0d7d3976d8ead3de | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x6993c839ae760d73ecdf9167e02540c862ba25280c288df9d7b91c4f4b57e699 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-mal-get-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-not-mun-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Democrats 66 win the third most seats in the 2025 Nethe... | no | 1 | elc-sot-swe-2025-11-08 | Will Southampton FC win on 2025-11-08? | 78,853,823 | 78,853,823 |
603f08664ebf536471a481aa0ed8748d591e11e5 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x7463f9473af4aae11da78f94dd46097ebde20267764b4a02fefa04b92f517833 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-not-mun-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Democrats 66 win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: which-party-wins-3nd-most-seats-in-netherlands-election | Choice: yes ... | no | 1 | epl-wes-bur-2025-11-08 | Will West Ham win on 2025-11-08? | 78,853,823 | 78,853,823 |
7e3015c4c119375d5109734b7e6c5b77a36c5fa9 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x7b8fe781b30effcb38b391b2fb21cbff921f61d287870c57df758bdf6afe553e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Democrats 66 win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: which-party-wins-3nd-most-seats-in-netherlands-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PVV win 33 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: d... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-4nd-most-seats-in-netherlands-election | Will Party for Freedom win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,853,823 | 78,853,823 |
34bfa9b3d64766f347424e73bf1ab2e0a5dec088 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x95efd97dbfb2e6f79a3256164dec1cc42781d82da0a0f4f0f86dda4dc3235349 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PVV win 33 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: dutch-parliamentary-election-pvv-seats | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: which-party-wins-... | yes | 1 | elc-sto-bri-2025-11-01 | Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,853,823 | 78,853,823 |
5d21fb681c8b76b62be2f8043658b85579934f5b | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0x9ee33240c84e0e9595973f27fd7b2cadce304190f67fe3c8fc675e50c94ba1e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-netherlands-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat lose the NOF1.ai competition? | Event: nof1ai-tradin... | no | 1 | bun-ein-mai-2025-11-09 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-09? | 78,853,823 | 78,853,823 |
71c4b26d4fa92ce9f1f80ab4b8a32b822d47c3d8 | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xd0484014d434e3960d7b908afb5994db5eb488650640a28ef132a7b2b689dc5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat lose the NOF1.ai competition? | Event: nof1ai-trading-competition-biggest-loser | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anthropic’s Claude 4.5 Sonnet win the NOF1.ai competition? | Event: nof1ai-ai-trading-competition-winner | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | lal-vil-ray-2025-11-01 | Will Villarreal vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw? | 78,853,823 | 78,853,823 |
61db78c0a168b2ec1c09eda43b57ff327e45e3ee | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xd441bd6fbe29196d13db20819e0c5d62e05a82620e58e080c835e221fdb8e249 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Anthropic’s Claude 4.5 Sonnet win the NOF1.ai competition? | Event: nof1ai-ai-trading-competition-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CDA win 21 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: how-many-seats-will-the-christian-democratic-appea... | yes | 1 | ucl-paf-vil-2025-11-05 | Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-11-05? | 78,853,823 | 78,853,823 |
58785ce4623934277a2b567cd8824e0aaa54167b | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xd52c5be6a9562e7e0b2606b292d5edc3cb530780201d93d8976799d5be1bd390 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDA win 21 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: how-many-seats-will-the-christian-democratic-appeal-cda-win-in-the-upcoming-dutch-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PVV win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands Ge... | no | 1 | dutch-parliamentary-election-groenlinkspvda-seats | Will GroenLinks–PvdA win 22 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,853,823 | 78,853,823 |
5a4c32446e42264cfb06ec77a2e2d10f492148ed | 0x35b9070821175f712cfee7e0f4f72844f4ec1d44 | 0xd84c31f4db1074287919c383d9cc526b19bc0274276af7bb1a5a427c6a061aa5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PVV win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election? | Event: netherlands-election-which-major-party-wins-fewest-seats | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will GL/PvdA win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election? | Event: netherlands-election-whic... | yes | 1 | ucl-bru-fcb-2025-11-05 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? | 78,853,823 | 78,853,823 |
ad3a68a9787c377a2036dae3ed18fcebfa82ff77 | 0x35babd5d42a0d28341fe70e1714253ed370f9cdf | 0xc4fcf422c4b4b6716e01f160a4e02c430fe53f56ac24e827892740f324ce7816 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 7AM ET
Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-23-7am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-23-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 7AM ET | 74,312,166 | 74,312,166 |
e3c5764a86db88b4bc1ff9075531277d705cf5cb | 0x35babd5d42a0d28341fe70e1714253ed370f9cdf | 0x963eb42f6518515ffcff70e129e9911ec91d434a0174a2e7c98742785d503f67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET
Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Outpu... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | 74,775,226 | 74,775,226 |
78f8193103150e098a8917912dd6aa216501c0ee | 0x35babd5d42a0d28341fe70e1714253ed370f9cdf | 0xd1b9864876b4d64f76ac9fa761be09903b6340e39b0acb59698a97b37ed75882 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Oc... | down | 0.672202 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-10-5pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 5PM ET | 77,518,024 | 77,518,024 |
ed5048f449fbb6d087f35fb86586a08e88a6133b | 0x35babd5d42a0d28341fe70e1714253ed370f9cdf | 0x8ad2acf76c4c06832a146df0279345ecc7e33508ad4c514ba4ae358bc80e8d64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 5PM... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-12-11pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 11PM ET | 77,615,280 | 77,615,280 |
e90616c1165244d660bbc017a2708cb90f26be0e | 0x35babd5d42a0d28341fe70e1714253ed370f9cdf | 0x78efce8989948f3d8f17fbece29d808192a5906f0ff999bc4aab79d3c745f2d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 5PM... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-15-10pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 10PM ET | 77,742,284 | 77,742,284 |
cd9d6504ce7e51d867c06e09f399ce42ef955a22 | 0x35babd5d42a0d28341fe70e1714253ed370f9cdf | 0xab7e34d970db7c1a6bd681424b9fdb6dff34f76bf2a3348a533029e420764548 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 5PM... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-19-12pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 12PM ET | 77,897,156 | 77,897,156 |
0186ceaeddd5dcde5c686e7791c01d78ee9cd793 | 0x35babd5d42a0d28341fe70e1714253ed370f9cdf | 0x9739fd3bc13b7409a07a9f7a29012440c178aae6652665558d6fc4da0acf1407 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 5PM... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-19-9pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 9PM ET | 77,913,366 | 77,913,366 |
05a5640ed22d050443ea2cb2cd56c8b38bc39afb | 0x35babd5d42a0d28341fe70e1714253ed370f9cdf | 0x1d2d7cf653a073800c746cc7f40ec6e53a999be03652795288c6f6d10a97ba28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 5PM... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-1pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 1PM ET | 78,071,820 | 78,071,820 |
02db96df68e973eeef913b5c599f19bcfce880e9 | 0x35babd5d42a0d28341fe70e1714253ed370f9cdf | 0xb870717f27b7abb8eec5a72da17a39ce397ab17f5bc54d9a308539fe136326d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 5PM... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-30-3am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3AM ET | 78,356,105 | 78,356,105 |
37a914096452d228390aa9f4f3dc7247a38afd2c | 0x35babd5d42a0d28341fe70e1714253ed370f9cdf | 0xcf1d3543dbb87c1891d7dd265a03b21d0af8c92035af15b877db17746dee199b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 5PM... | up | 0.990626 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-4-3pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 3PM ET | 78,595,603 | 78,595,603 |
5c7bc2c1f7a26d3fb3a94a6a65a45535a8e99aa3 | 0x35babd5d42a0d28341fe70e1714253ed370f9cdf | 0xa6c8e5fc78d749c28a519ce0753546ef8deedf4147faeb1bf39819b2c49b3448 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 5PM... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-8-9pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 9PM ET | 78,779,276 | 78,779,276 |
7e3d32b4149226b1299b3f2023db7bce3666db0e | 0x35babd5d42a0d28341fe70e1714253ed370f9cdf | 0x31b3ece625e3b025963ab5e92f63e4802165382f706377df7fa6522b108cfb80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 5PM... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-9-11am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 11AM ET | 78,838,535 | 78,838,535 |
f6e5ad45f4a76e7d1c68740e1b397c8820fb2a77 | 0x35babd5d42a0d28341fe70e1714253ed370f9cdf | 0x1dde8fac18c99c8cee987d6def0cfde26b3080013b984c9b07c9216d3fbe4926 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 5PM... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-13-12pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 12PM ET | 78,978,802 | 78,978,802 |
f8513cbc6d1579227b16cc30c354aed7991e6c0e | 0x35babd5d42a0d28341fe70e1714253ed370f9cdf | 0x4618c8f37f95f0369b6f646ada72391df7d17f3d6ddfce384244d07431e30ed7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 5PM... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-14-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 7AM ET | 79,013,023 | 79,013,023 |
7ca2c0e7960efe1a48bfde1c362734df3335e714 | 0x35babd5d42a0d28341fe70e1714253ed370f9cdf | 0xe54289489f345949c52070408d49d08778d795570578203f8921b5363dea1663 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 5PM... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-15-1pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 1PM ET | 79,066,991 | 79,066,991 |
3c3fbb99adea0da00419626091411abea4bcb9a8 | 0x35babd5d42a0d28341fe70e1714253ed370f9cdf | 0xa390fdf71979e3fe8522a8042a383396794e95dc532793df5a3b0a318d5c5042 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 5PM... | down | 0.957905 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-16-10am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 16, 10AM ET | 79,104,808 | 79,104,808 |
19b98e1024063fc46deffdd383a009e4bc34a62b | 0x35f8f4b1399d3f69a428bbc5945f2eb38876fa93 | 0xd5822f9ef42df397c1bddd9a748d7e8c0d6c69c45b6c5b21ad63bb5b0134cf15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet less than 60 times?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? | 60,615,256 | 60,615,256 |
2d6478a8a71b9c1713c199d3b94a29bd6c0e8e3f | 0x35f8f4b1399d3f69a428bbc5945f2eb38876fa93 | 0xc509136b3356b2de94b2d4df915ba27c0e91a4bcc5d20df64980004df8978331 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City?
Event: epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Outp... | yes | 1 | epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur | Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City? | 62,171,233 | 62,171,233 |
487ef24093e928c0cd0994eb0e8ed09044ce05dc | 0x35f8f4b1399d3f69a428bbc5945f2eb38876fa93 | 0x2cb4e8fa1830cdff26db9dc2243172034e593a4f2ba6fa83fef4c5a4a3ab65e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City? | Event: epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Liverpool beat Ip... | yes | 1 | epl-ipswich-town-vs-liverpool | Will Liverpool beat Ipswich Town? | 62,171,277 | 62,171,277 |
758a58cba68c90ad230dd1d45db195fbcd746e8a | 0x35f8f4b1399d3f69a428bbc5945f2eb38876fa93 | 0xc267c83e0f695a25b12490dfe467ca688f3d1fb1db1a4ca7aa4cf51ec3a242cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City? | Event: epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat Ipswich Town? |... | yes | 1 | epl-arsenal-vs-wolverhampton | Will Arsenal beat Wolverhampton? | 62,171,287 | 62,171,287 |
d3aca23777942ee9d3e9203791f0c38fcf2ab3a9 | 0x35f8f4b1399d3f69a428bbc5945f2eb38876fa93 | 0x2cf290283eb0e741cb2e0682e1a976a37867700bc45678ef10cd4b40e1eb8b04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City? | Event: epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat Ipswich Town? |... | yes | 1 | epl-manchester-united-vs-fulham | Will Manchester United beat Fulham? | 62,171,295 | 62,171,295 |
5bc76d8601d3cfd731b215dccc7f045b2919ac0e | 0x35f8f4b1399d3f69a428bbc5945f2eb38876fa93 | 0x87b202dfb6396f0f6dfa2ad654bd0dc35efd4b5d8f3b266e26751fcfc180788b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City? | Event: epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat Ipswich Town? |... | yes | 1 | epl-matchday-1-chelsea-vs-man-city | Will Manchester City win vs Chelsea? | 62,171,328 | 62,171,328 |
b6b45df87e942b30db395afff651783618094c4a | 0x35f8f4b1399d3f69a428bbc5945f2eb38876fa93 | 0x91cb9560f73b1a468e7f85b07d46dd07146075b6927f4e3f96aa9abfbc97c144 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City? | Event: epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat Ipswich Town? |... | yes | 1 | epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | 62,171,354 | 62,171,354 |
91177e3d5d912748a5aa32bf83e3532fdd9809a2 | 0x35f8f4b1399d3f69a428bbc5945f2eb38876fa93 | 0xf9bb11bc17027c94421847e647566c0b50f3c0af1e0aad0407991b7b24635e48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City? | Event: epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat Ipswich Town? |... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-20-27 | Will Trump tweet 30-39 times September 20-27? | 64,318,615 | 64,318,615 |
b72fa324375ffae8e57af8a9018f5ce2bcc12661 | 0x35f8f4b1399d3f69a428bbc5945f2eb38876fa93 | 0xcbfe9b2c2d30deb429f59569cd73c1384298506786770c0b347bd9b946757fea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City? | Event: epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat Ipswich Town? |... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-20-27 | Will Trump tweet 25-29 times September 20-27? | 64,318,621 | 64,318,621 |
b68d8f4e820eea2182a1bace7354bdb543d7aa90 | 0x35f8f4b1399d3f69a428bbc5945f2eb38876fa93 | 0xc202c661d46577fe618c828484a1c33ebf6f3e7e3b79b5ada080a1da6d4d2604 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City? | Event: epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat Ipswich Town? |... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-20-27 | Will Elon tweet 125-149 times? | 64,318,641 | 64,318,641 |
be461859011ea006c72bcf39be45866aa7d7a37e | 0x35f8f4b1399d3f69a428bbc5945f2eb38876fa93 | 0x50d1527a6cdaad4684896469eca46db697e6f6332715073e9f994e3aa43fa9e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City? | Event: epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat Ipswich Town? |... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-20-27 | Will Elon tweet 150-174 times? | 64,318,652 | 64,318,652 |
2ea32c36219feb588abe70a771670cc47a959f9b | 0x35f8f4b1399d3f69a428bbc5945f2eb38876fa93 | 0x0dc9832083677c8ac022380fc75ae771b25b470f50a1dbecbd58664c65e24b30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City? | Event: epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat Ipswich Town? |... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-nov-22-29 | Will Trump tweet 30-34 times Nov 22-29? | 65,782,753 | 65,782,753 |
506e1500f50bd4fa199b6d1e13f37eda39098230 | 0x35f8f4b1399d3f69a428bbc5945f2eb38876fa93 | 0x338f3dbaf62410d41436035964b685840370d1f814cbafa1a1df44cd3f061d9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City? | Event: epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat Ipswich Town? |... | no | 1 | romania-parliamentary-election | Will USR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | 65,782,769 | 65,782,769 |
ae1a96ba14c132a42f69ed65470f6c0b799ee432 | 0x35f8f4b1399d3f69a428bbc5945f2eb38876fa93 | 0x5edfb7499c1b5f6a5a7b0588270592a4474c1a0416894ad618dccbbbb3187a39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City? | Event: epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat Ipswich Town? |... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 20-27? | 66,854,987 | 66,854,987 |
09444f74cdd0e64a2f6206f8b1ccdd4dc40059cc | 0x35f8f4b1399d3f69a428bbc5945f2eb38876fa93 | 0xb1c188588792b842130ed42b84c241de27ee3a68421f24f5086222d62a08d986 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City? | Event: epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat Ipswich Town? |... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-nov-22-29 | Will Trump tweet 10-14 times Nov 22-29? | 66,958,921 | 66,958,921 |
cbf59553cacf38c7ecf579b8beb151d880313214 | 0x35f8f4b1399d3f69a428bbc5945f2eb38876fa93 | 0x624d5fed5c4d89d4375f95c003c6bb9475f549f834ef9f96891a24e069ced66c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City? | Event: epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat Ipswich Town? |... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-november | Will the US gain between 200-250k jobs in November? | 66,959,040 | 66,959,040 |
900c4f2c9ee68fc720756e54d0bef81f7684c011 | 0x35f8f4b1399d3f69a428bbc5945f2eb38876fa93 | 0xb80dde00ebe6cbe530dc98e7364fd935429de3a3469af55bff2dfc5cf00bf52d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City? | Event: epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat Ipswich Town? |... | no | 1 | melania-fdv-on-friday | Will $MELANIA FDV be $15b or more on Friday? | 76,560,163 | 76,560,163 |
b7439ae1805f7a99b4ce51eba1d403f281ad83a0 | 0x35f8f4b1399d3f69a428bbc5945f2eb38876fa93 | 0x4a76201df2897be2ae1a8ab7005d073d4bf8c02192a4abf912c29bfdef0c0335 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City? | Event: epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat Ipswich Town? |... | yes | 1 | ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | 77,755,398 | 77,755,398 |
e4389732eb2d291dbfa1f0f7eee9c575a996e323 | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0x096fea7ad0bcf4c556ebfd36b7103bee79f991cd96b5317797049366ec86ea3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21?
Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | 69,477,447 | 69,477,447 |
23631385bc5c112bea8414968d318616a8425dfa | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0x5dbbf4cbb4cbca7c5967bfe92c0bd1667ac508fecb1e548c01def1a8cb43ea53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?
Event: fed-decision-in-march
Predict the user's choice and confidenc... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-march | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | 69,477,447 | 69,477,447 |
2a8a61281dad3a02ea7407272f954908223572e7 | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0x67bae9ed6f0ad3b61313de828c5eb6212f878869e23a4893023d72a063c69b17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Ques... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21? | 69,477,447 | 69,477,447 |
d84543be78a7b7261eb935d1fd36316f395f7fef | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0x69122741cd305bef99027fb3b0f474ad4afc71c60d56ea57b7a8eddfc34c8652 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-mar-14-21 | Will Trump post 200-219 times March 14-21? | 69,477,447 | 69,477,447 |
181fd5ee82205564bebe6b62f2feca8c004babd4 | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0x23795dc25297240c83a44aedfe9ecf15ec8dbf1dc3d4c7813624c3086aefe7c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 19? | 69,477,448 | 69,477,448 |
ace2280c0467e572b14a07b6a15efb58189daaf8 | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0x42062da9c5ce31ea5076091a9a99420ba694384fa7b6de6c42fbf1cd5f442f99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-19 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 54°F or below on March 19? | 69,477,448 | 69,477,448 |
cc2527e77cfc3dd92fa2fe42676e2796e7080852 | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0xaec97f7af255d81485894d446adbd37346ed64b3c92f2448f5ce4a2249ebc248 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-march-21 | Will Trump's approval rating be 49.0% or higher on March 21? | 69,477,448 | 69,477,448 |
93b8ef7e4e7fc7759990c6e552839a1c41386665 | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0x352e9ec6fe27b26933ee4915102de254b68881492e3e1eb821c6f7270c09dba8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-march-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $370b on March 31? | 70,001,679 | 70,001,679 |
bdfe67d8a97c55dcf7d34931e8a0d500a04b1c3f | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0x541ea33998e7cdd6e3ac240de7ffcfb00d549517958d4150880e4ae10727c82c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Will Alibaba have the top AI model on March 31? | 70,001,679 | 70,001,679 |
4c27f6fc70a208b6e28f7f6e6894e80f97460dd8 | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0x5d0404c62a7dfdc35068999b5f4801a241a10261a2617671419ca36cc9cb0d75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-8 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 51°F or higher on April 8? | 70,443,705 | 70,443,705 |
16c98c38405813a53588dc2df04603e345926f93 | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0x5e924edf6ae984ac3d2acb8bdd4ca69ce318c173ce6a416ce46cc97f8c3ba950 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 70,443,705 | 70,443,705 |
0daeb9a86815f99e7bf2960f9d382ea233bf628e | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0x89936e03bd1d00ffe1764297f18298079f3465677af8ef38b1119b3b429b7469 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Apr 11? | 70,443,705 | 70,443,705 |
cacd1f840dcdff2261de41050de2e8f0cf5d665a | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0x8c0ebe1276a55a223b7bd0d1e334a6c9d3ba3e48df4a893957f8ebcd945da22b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11 | Will Elon tweet 600 or more times April 4 - 11? | 70,443,705 | 70,443,705 |
a0a7fa28b993857a3715b81114e1969a1425c516 | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0xc3e1b9c2dd9006994c8cb5ec4424b39551ba0db2ba814e8adcf749659eb7d978 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | yes | 1 | 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 70,443,705 | 70,443,705 |
74aa9538cb18e446eb2c01020e530cbf1e73bbd7 | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0x0abf2a69414c78c4a9789a0ffaee54f4b3cd2fdc8fe5d8ed1ab169c82abd419d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? | 70,564,691 | 70,564,691 |
7ecb2866697802bab42057065225c347f26658c3 | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0xc29f38c8b282bbe88de64d9e239874bfb6105c65e9d3b1289f5372eb49e63d66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 350–374 times April 18–25? | 70,810,659 | 70,810,659 |
df7b7e2cf11e9f3e0fabc3dd66dad8e985f75a1a | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0x6694caca6860bc57b895471d6b5fc253f4504e3848e3771ceb6342da81367716 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-16-23 | Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 16–23? | 72,264,274 | 72,264,274 |
527481506f35ad92ae6cc7925237d4ff1c3c54a5 | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0xac74e4b94ba182d730d5eb5cc17233d96834e50e16a410d45ed9b816243d9c19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6 | Will Elon tweet 95–109 times May 30–June 6? | 72,587,769 | 72,587,769 |
c4011afd52952a22f4e430c47e6096aef0e18636 | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0xfe4934931f540f9fd56b5315e8be6778493dace3e513d89204dd60087eb33142 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-6-13 | Will Elon tweet 425–449 times June 6–13? | 73,074,048 | 73,074,048 |
907921969583176b0417092f1a66a8d792cdde59 | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0xddeada500febd733cdce995bce68c1baf8e8669b2c22be6643fcdc6ca451b472 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-20-27 | Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 20–27? | 73,283,783 | 73,283,783 |
eda474a01c3b436155f9475b384d535dd2931ca9 | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0x57b99e2c671bea6e1926107edcaadcc6f5211ebd7c60dcf71e034a97bf973850 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4? | 73,729,878 | 73,729,878 |
eca6904fd037a9acdccdd2a5a2b1db9bcbbba7a1 | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0x10cd55acfbe1d5dab971dd7cacdd4373be8acf90f25a4b8827178bbc2a79c507 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11? | 73,943,168 | 73,943,168 |
3ae08939687773bd63f915f54e4a29c5c41198d3 | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0x69d5b8a9941bbda8b43ae2b877b248227b8bc965ba562fac649a7d3c76515a6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 11–18? | 74,069,476 | 74,069,476 |
d3a4da2c73f6bf582deac6cca349ae173c540f9c | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0x4d04661cc85681bad6391604d8a5c1387d3b2cc8c961693b1e024c986b99a3aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 18–25? | 74,505,579 | 74,505,579 |
be3eef4c1d0db5dec31883ded92c6e4452c86d43 | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0xcf76624fbb649080513c10b37368d1eda84ba2271af8d0427101c758db6181c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-25-august-1 | Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 25–August 1? | 74,732,084 | 74,732,084 |
5cb5f5e9fadcc9a3cff114926407d8755185db05 | 0x35fcb0f4eb52220cd1c88cd757ee4bdcb1aa293b | 0xcba55c4a67c06258b0eed7ae6d0fdd569a1ec7e4874ccc7c21a1fe4d1a02f974 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8 | Will Elon tweet 90–104 times August 1–August 8? | 75,032,431 | 75,032,431 |
88dc1f6bc9335145562d6528dd1a01a6abd886ed | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0x12a29dfd706ab5c700789e50df80ddfa8cd6dc8fdd3723b480a9adb39e5a58bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21?
Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | 78,031,974 | 78,031,974 |
c56e96e54244a6a9dd3c1c104964271861872e64 | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0x7438253a366f750c59461d3d1e5cf1584632a4e86fbef35a36a28cb25dcde7bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27?
Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27
Predict the user's choice and confi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | 78,298,961 | 78,298,961 |
4776ac122968272d9b15cf61cc1542c4067b24dd | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0x124e1fed1b565bce67b181d4f8b130fc36198e2a8dd19749003aaa264e70ec93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:... | up | 0.000012 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 11PM ET | 79,124,047 | 79,124,047 |
289b9715bc7ec2b98fa3f60f89d617de9ab15ffb | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0xc5564a5caa70f146e978cddb17f9ddab26a82cbd543c26fff7712440b098613e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | up | 0.000006 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-16-11pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 16, 11PM ET | 79,124,125 | 79,124,125 |
c14aa41d87f6822b2eb027872dc1c2a9c8380cf8 | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0xc7c4c3a3cfb7026a31b1b5e0e16cab9a21c9b386a9b89c107753c120a5d3ef52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-november-19-10pm-et | XRP Up or Down - November 19, 10PM ET | 79,254,117 | 79,254,117 |
e578c2eb8c6b839d7f7633fb8e93b90eb47547b8 | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0xf4f1e47947246ed0cf3f88ef2c72b07dcde792f51aa5198f526d1ea7a3432031 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 4PM ET | 79,803,435 | 79,803,435 |
aead299e277388d4c9fd6547e47d68a6fb6717de | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0x78b447f5760eac368516309b9aa97bede2cab36a93abedcd562c3cdde4f272f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-december-2-4pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 4PM ET | 79,803,460 | 79,838,568 |
496dab5e3095f18d202ae5fb4f2ea68aeb0e94a1 | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0x8b3a9d6ca57d3a00707259978dd88613c2628c7f43f457e474548d3d058ba2f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | up | 0.000006 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 8PM ET | 79,856,012 | 79,856,012 |
cbad7adcf4bf7333cab412609f82ad9477eb2422 | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0x875adf5c6837edd163e7fe8dc4f522fa13ba4ef175da27177baddfe20b78835d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-december-3-8pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 8PM ET | 79,856,029 | 79,856,029 |
5d8746107b672fed4a44c6dfe9cdb247e5829b39 | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0xcd7ec82310f9920e496fa0dd83da4c4fba9e87711bbf6cd3b8dcb8280c5cbc30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 10PM ET | 79,856,885 | 79,856,885 |
d73a3e465176a4d7bcbc89e2d4d8cadcb1aae29e | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0x547fe406aeabaede4e4046a5add33d14427f6048f2024907527a87a89e93a56b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-december-3-11pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 11PM ET | 79,859,212 | 79,879,460 |
3c39e550bfc9317c71defe5375eabff936d52e21 | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0x2fdfd666fb87a7337f50620ba99d6cc12321cdec55bafed99ab67b54cfa7bab4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 11PM ET | 79,859,232 | 79,879,460 |
a1a78a4d79ff2e14f320d44270f4aaba36723bd9 | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0x375e56fd9e05911c6dd82bd776ac09d79678ee297e2dc8e9897fd769a01d0a15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-december-4-11am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 11AM ET | 79,881,323 | 79,884,100 |
1a994ab44bab677a542f1056845b6264a36257b4 | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0x0b37b98bba94464eae83e1b1b8d48e42c7dfa5aa4e84ce8fc6ef322f88fa727b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-4-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 11AM ET | 79,881,332 | 79,884,100 |
80c9a3ad4949477380c1c7b14acaa7298d46f64b | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0x1d08e0dc5f200882adbf68274b60e6a57bf5634bb9cfe009adb500976094fee9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0.000002 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-4-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 12PM ET | 79,882,461 | 79,883,158 |
2562a8df048437f7c619b2fc8a6348b8ae224b89 | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0x068a52298e8a0d8f5b0ffb2f300085e2915d5d65107019ee50d522ef4799696c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0.000004 | ethereum-up-or-down-december-4-12pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 12PM ET | 79,882,484 | 79,883,648 |
d2b33dcf53b9cde58f561829c88bb93a6068df07 | 0x3618035151a8f4d926863b78dad0ee77d572867c | 0x688fdc74e92a60d71480ad9b3cf097082bcd492ec5d81830057cb79000101d44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-december-4-2pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 2PM ET | 79,885,774 | 79,886,718 |
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