sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
b5f54cfad6bbf2d5ed95d303c2dd7bac47de90c8 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x212e0222c011aba5f631da3b6a1f4ebcc4d2c6fc3db502b700bb2145fcd9fb9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-atalanta-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City beat Juventus? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-... | yes | 1 | uel-az-tot-2025-03-06 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-03-06? | 68,736,100 | 68,736,100 |
72187c1291caffe369dbd77f0168c1ff668dc586 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x347d25b266daf839e42621c637922aaa513d137de2c337f965c9bb01390f060d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-atalanta-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Juventus? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stuttgart beat Young Boys? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs... | yes | 1 | uel-fcsb-lyo-2025-03-06 | Will Lyon win on 2025-03-06? | 68,736,100 | 68,736,100 |
9c91e903790c1456984e8e440361687d5b792fa4 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xe865f3d955924dde5ee0cb26586208414ec52d3a079a19c0d70ea871038684ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Juventus? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Stuttgart beat Young Boys? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-young-boys | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus beat Manchester City? | Event: ucl-juventus... | yes | 1 | uel-fen-ran-2025-03-06 | Will Rangers win on 2025-03-06? | 68,736,100 | 68,736,100 |
81f8a47355959932d47e48572436584d25aefa99 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xf9501e10440ed6a34aa24bb43fec6a91188f618207682c6c81a67d5fa9fe3479 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stuttgart beat Young Boys? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-young-boys | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus beat Manchester City? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: ucl-borus... | yes | 1 | uel-rso-mun-2025-03-06 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-06? | 68,736,100 | 68,736,100 |
ff6584231d6688ca58477370c0fe362e43ea8266 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x32683a80b5523f3d504407f7c5f680e206c7c468f16027aa11f91ff8f2990e85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Manchester City? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: ucl-borussia-dortmund-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: GOP wins popular vote by less than 1.5%? | ... | yes | 1 | uel-ajx-fra-2025-03-06 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-03-06? | 68,753,098 | 68,753,098 |
436743d20df428438d7c5143a528582e2c7546de | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x8e45bb6acdd718600e01c3a509b8ea305d2468d695622c26c366f39eb85d5755 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: ucl-borussia-dortmund-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by less than 1.5%? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-0pt25-ranges | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gold close at $2,500-... | yes | 1 | uel-bod-oly-2025-03-06 | Will Bodo/Glimt win on 2025-03-06? | 68,753,098 | 68,753,098 |
7209b15cc57d70780b888b9a7ff653c5eac9c783 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x2565d91a1e958305581b30f2f3c9b9e1c84db0ce3f7be235a64135fb557c3a1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GOP wins popular vote by less than 1.5%? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-0pt25-ranges | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West ... | yes | 1 | uel-ath-rom-2025-03-13 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-03-13? | 69,016,942 | 69,016,942 |
ac39b1a7f4c9cb17935eae156da7c95559a7fbf1 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x327884f9a846ee354b7b43b57074c3db66c5dfc7c0d988b97276fd5a5ea46038 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-mac-wes-2025-01-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-01-04? | Eve... | yes | 1 | uel-fra-ajx-2025-03-13 | Will Ajax win on 2025-03-13? | 69,016,942 | 69,016,942 |
ee5889f3ab1ba3bc7126058329249b6f04b9826f | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xbc214905bf66a31767a58c8f36f6d3175245799c86a3ec1b082165443395bfbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-mac-wes-2025-01-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-ast-lei-2025-01-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid beat RB Salzburg? | Event: ucl-rb-salzburg-vs-atlet... | yes | 1 | uel-laz-plz-2025-03-13 | Will Lazio win on 2025-03-13? | 69,016,942 | 69,016,942 |
6af639d157ca269b75892adcfc99357089d7e547 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xcd33309875ef0f39b31680db8a5df601cc785f0e93b167df2a47d89ccc25d2b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-ast-lei-2025-01-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid beat RB Salzburg? | Event: ucl-rb-salzburg-vs-atletico-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Young Boys beat Red Star Belgrade? | Event: ucl-y... | yes | 1 | uel-oly-bod-2025-03-13 | Will Olympiakos Piraeus win on 2025-03-13? | 69,016,942 | 69,016,942 |
5b87e373ac0733c4847ef5a83733d32a86ecd4f0 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x7350af3e8ecb7f7e41742d92733abd4e22e2f409d7f23f2d8d09bd8569661d2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid beat RB Salzburg? | Event: ucl-rb-salzburg-vs-atletico-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Young Boys beat Red Star Belgrade? | Event: ucl-young-boys-vs-red-star-belgrade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Borussia Dor... | yes | 1 | uel-lyo-fcsb-2025-03-13 | Will Lyon win on 2025-03-13? | 69,033,841 | 69,033,841 |
9aa758b7ca812fd55d428d12663477ff703afee9 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x842106b99ca82d093b8bc64c18fffa59c39736f6bf03d74371f7f87d36b6ef88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Young Boys beat Red Star Belgrade? | Event: ucl-young-boys-vs-red-star-belgrade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Borussia Dortmund and Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw? | Event: ucl-borussia-dortmund-vs-shakhtar-donetsk | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | uel-mun-rso-2025-03-13 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-13? | 69,033,841 | 69,033,841 |
310190d8401ff5f194d78ad4c497830151caa14d | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xa65856f6fad08f24d4644ebeeaa8ad24dfc50908f7e86f382f47f17d892da319 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between Borussia Dortmund and Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw? | Event: ucl-borussia-dortmund-vs-shakhtar-donetsk | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter... | yes | 1 | uel-tot-az-2025-03-13 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-03-13? | 69,033,841 | 69,033,841 |
ad9b67e42711efe3043857c34c7e50ee865ee2cb | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xb043bdb69cf3469512e8ef87b31f09c73f3c84aa092640c25454903f3f3a5247 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Celtic? | Event: ucl-aston-villa-vs-celtic | Cho... | yes | 1 | uel-ran-fen-2025-03-13 | Will Rangers win on 2025-03-13? | 69,033,841 | 69,033,841 |
8bd6a79086641f2e461102ccd6c1291aabe16f1e | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x497cb84ade781b78f295583c721a5e7606d494e1451a81580735361b6b99840e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Celtic? | Event: ucl-aston-villa-vs-celtic | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen beat Sparta Praha? | Event: ucl-bayer-leverkusen... | yes | 1 | bun-hsv-pau-2025-08-29 | Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-08-29? | 75,853,789 | 75,853,789 |
7577ef3e191e0f4c4fe85b7e7c89f5b37637dc0a | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x9226d32c4f167577b15ffd004b307051ce3f6fd433ea41a80663e262153b22e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Celtic? | Event: ucl-aston-villa-vs-celtic | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen beat Sparta Praha? | Event: ucl-bayer-leverkusen-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Stuttgart? | Event: u... | yes | 1 | bun-hof-ein-2025-08-30 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-08-30? | 75,853,789 | 75,853,789 |
02e68216d0a6420f31240eb6df5e4e9c3e738769 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xdfe7d1b9fb9e16fda5c939f6078f4429a556c822e0f0f80f59a6b9429fed9e2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen beat Sparta Praha? | Event: ucl-bayer-leverkusen-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta beat Barcelona?... | yes | 1 | bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-08-30? | 75,853,789 | 75,853,789 |
e84beaf8206a6db9c0495b9a38b4444bd6ec28ba | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x5d3bff93cbe4f7e75f7b9b247b5d37d68c809207ac6dfb56cacb92eb56c039da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta beat Barcelona? | Event: ucl-barcelona-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-ma... | yes | 1 | bun-uni-hof-2025-09-13 | Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-09-13? | 76,415,998 | 76,415,998 |
224fe90c50b2875d668aee2a04c6c51dd815edba | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x8f10b0e19ec6c899efcf3adef53eb355afe6c51a39b1d8c708168e359bbc834f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta beat Barcelona? | Event: ucl-barcelona-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-mac-rma-2025-02-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-spo-dor-2025-02... | yes | 1 | bun-fre-stu-2025-09-13 | Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-09-13? | 76,415,998 | 76,415,998 |
68cb608f7f044f222c8e71b0fc508503ee6700d7 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x5bc75e146bd30e715695ea21722b3865ef93ccbdf059ac2a2c7e71aef050643c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-mac-rma-2025-02-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-spo-dor-2025-02-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-02-12? | Event: ucl-bru-ata-2025-02... | yes | 1 | ucl-kob-b04-2025-09-18 | Will FC Kopenhagen vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw? | 76,619,234 | 76,619,234 |
a99e63ffcd378745c5327e6bc3e36c86ae7debf8 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x28a2c341bde029fb59f598c802bbd04763f634aa5ec642a7b016dfaee0000582 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-spo-dor-2025-02-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-02-12? | Event: ucl-bru-ata-2025-02-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election? ... | yes | 1 | ucl-mac-nap-2025-09-18 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-18? | 76,632,912 | 76,632,912 |
091b7ee6be474cb808f375b0f2721a9aa93aef81 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x61d06f56a6323cccf55aded9d7ef6736105bfc8d9fc6da298eb17e3ef1f18f29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-02-12? | Event: ucl-bru-ata-2025-02-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia ... | yes | 1 | ucl-fra-gal-2025-09-18 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-18? | 76,632,912 | 76,632,912 |
e782d524bee1d55b926752b58c5f4b3dcc5b8f70 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0xc964405e53d4e01e6c1a2b6e9303bf0d77f0600f6fc7a391532c01919f0c535d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-dor-lil-2025-03-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | ucl-new-bar-2025-09-18 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? | 76,632,912 | 76,632,912 |
af85a911253da8c85c9044146c076add6e124652 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x9d4065037269cba951b678342c438a07cb77a24370756c284113f5f2106290ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-dor-lil-2025-03-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-psv-ars-2025-03-... | yes | 1 | bun-hof-bay-2025-09-20 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-20? | 76,715,849 | 76,715,849 |
151fa29d9072f7e577cba6c794891f66f90a7ae7 | 0x3640fbff38379c783b599f46794bb635db7dc8fb | 0x205c911dd5625db0ad1bb97eeb76665dfc432812135d40f6617aa45768ac1318 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-psv-ars-2025-03-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-fey-int-2025-03-05 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | bun-moe-ein-2025-09-27 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-27? | 76,998,289 | 76,998,289 |
7ca8ccd85948d637120a87b788c107e72f5534b6 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x05014b6073018829bc2dc891dc788aa2835ac119500c4aa9867b5da1e8b09de0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10?
Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | 78,877,715 | 78,877,715 |
a58125939cd6a27c424b118f90420f4ef8305699 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0xddaf004da62839adef62f63fa9474dec998f3fc87929781d97df12346baa2770 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10?
Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ... | no | 0.396176 | arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | 78,877,729 | 78,877,729 |
9a4d32d5f7a8f16d3f24406215e45e00c3aa86a9 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x52327f03f78ab8bb6cd6da3571230be3e7882d85eb3cc5b1dfe9db21ae09560e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
Target market:
Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10... | no | 1 | arg-aaj-bel-2025-11-10 | Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | 78,877,795 | 78,877,795 |
2b331edd5c7b178a0b4fdff51f241a234264aa7b | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x5dc3862c4fecf6485669f7ad9c002a799bd060651d1cb01a187a4d0a717fd427 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Will CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente end in a draw? | 78,877,838 | 78,877,838 |
2e37c8966d3f0c4a449a27e2abc82e0bef8da0ee | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x0ee001dcab9a30399d482a1dcb4748afe27c79f2cf9043317a3694e8b59afeb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield end in a draw? | 78,877,845 | 78,877,845 |
987ef4c70ac01a362296abb7644b7f55c26f524a | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x97ff2647eead48deda01ad7d5b504e2e51a410e619cec2039bddbe0a03bcb36d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 0.388629 | bra-cam-fec-2025-11-12 | Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-11-12? | 78,963,438 | 78,963,438 |
a6e6d7b5411f77f389993728ea57acd6cafc640f | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x633f00659167ce8341416340fcb7ef5a79c742b5454eb3a0f83b6871e8d6d711 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | bra-cam-fec-2025-11-12 | Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-12? | 78,963,519 | 78,963,519 |
7920720a5b33f40d5e786a9f03e1089e2d19d066 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0xe391613febdb7c99111ee8b3ffb856aa6e99b033fc6b37da8f343a70d2cbdf62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | uef-and-alb-2025-11-13 | Will Andorra win on 2025-11-13? | 78,988,993 | 78,988,993 |
7b2d4059ce07cd310095ac171bbbd029875ebd66 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x98a69eee30afe8da11938da20f13ea809d908f6f8c8d4b741372cd7d8b86b3a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | uef-nor-est-2025-11-13 | Will Estonia win on 2025-11-13? | 78,988,999 | 78,988,999 |
aaf69f45826f0f7414b272e212ac9d83a8b64d92 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0xd8d1f5655ded7cf49b8b6dbe2d91ac88a66eccfcd3ff0ee87c41ce16f1749245 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | uef-fra-ukr-2025-11-13 | Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-13? | 78,989,005 | 78,989,005 |
c02c23902aacbdae39e700b0430dac7fd68cdba1 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0xc66ab4ea9b3838ceb5c43ed86b49243a9ae2e846331a876a164ebea249187f20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | yes | 1 | uef-eng-ser-2025-11-13 | Will England win on 2025-11-13? | 78,989,011 | 78,989,011 |
92fcdc2ed82bfabe2a23377d324743a46394faf4 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0xcc14160a924394312c29ddd81d3bdb1beff7a15a423a8b4627e9b6bd608b0fe2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | uef-pol-nld-2025-11-14 | Will Poland win on 2025-11-14? | 79,033,140 | 79,033,140 |
3c557e048eac15ab84df591806e0ad9e2aa681f5 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x45a3883121261dec24f63ac4cdf545c40d2c6fc87113f518ccb66ef86b2a839c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | uef-hrv-far-2025-11-14 | Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-11-14? | 79,033,146 | 79,033,146 |
c414e03c5f9faf300ed9f5730057b997ab585766 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x6afd212e0ee7326ac82ba868db4a4ab6b5498548765905f0b0b2014da2c323d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | uef-lux-ger-2025-11-14 | Will Luxembourg win on 2025-11-14? | 79,033,151 | 79,033,151 |
1b8bc18e039e0893be194b5c17647f334b41ecc7 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x1e9b6a14d19857d5b3a12b27f262ec5864016c410a4e939325106e94cb1fd7fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | indiana | 1 | cfb-wisc-ind-2025-11-15 | Wisconsin Badgers vs. Indiana | 79,076,999 | 79,076,999 |
d64065f141693213848fe5cef068ea886ff9522b | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x6b4975584f86098f9672c7d8dfd7ce2b185f582206727eaafd07285cf92dfeda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | uef-tur-bul-2025-11-15 | Will Bulgaria win on 2025-11-15? | 79,077,051 | 79,077,051 |
28a56fa9769938f709f25a9ab8b938df11da3253 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x2782940243313a63441048fad0f4e03a10357a6ce580696e94089ae65e0fa5ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | commanders | 1 | nfl-was-mia-2025-11-16 | Commanders vs. Dolphins | 79,109,858 | 79,109,858 |
2316cb51d44cdcbc3c3389c7f628ec50a31d3488 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x345b689321562b66c9a2ba4cf19976a3a310e6f558aa26c5a31d25834c261915 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | uef-fra-ukr-2025-11-13 | Will France win on 2025-11-13? | 79,144,825 | 79,144,825 |
7e3184e649f26f37ffce8466a363a0f83daad465 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x02845376345cabf28fd8f90707ecf97d298e13c8555909ce6b75bbf66653b7a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | uef-aze-isl-2025-11-13 | Will Iceland win on 2025-11-13? | 79,144,844 | 79,144,844 |
bf159a8836b27e0ed2410a44c13d92b7b484fb75 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0xf8a259d1dff91e01cbc77dc066bc659fcee70a6941afd506f35907de35683301 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | uef-arm-hun-2025-11-13 | Will Hungary win on 2025-11-13? | 79,144,847 | 79,144,847 |
7d218d8feded2489f87dc9d5c8cb38b996427fb2 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x9a1e320340488a0a26b7bbe5ee16e108978e969434c19c2bb53023ff7ce33034 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | uef-mol-ita-2025-11-13 | Will Italy win on 2025-11-13? | 79,144,850 | 79,144,850 |
acf64d3121c5591a7e18a2f069e5f2cf4901ad17 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x29d884539571f848c16abc91c49dbae8a428714f0a57bcc29bd557707d9dd0b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november-2025 | Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? | 79,179,383 | 79,179,383 |
c012c2d22ba8020150681d924c32e7672e804e80 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x8d5190b55ca3afc7233bfe8eb1cefe0e0101f9c71def551c5f495eae8421cb9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | yes | 0.671748 | bra-bah-fec-2025-11-20 | Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-20? | 79,293,502 | 79,293,502 |
e4a88cd07bd3c03b1933e4b06a3cb1881232f609 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x4782a916f605e7074d71084256846640628886306ca66eae164f1ea812fc1a15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | bra-bah-fec-2025-11-20 | Will EC Bahia vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? | 79,293,509 | 79,293,509 |
c579a7aead4eadaf289ef2420d584c6c42536ff6 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x6ed505dd271cfddb95c2d539f0a452c14344366e5405c6e54d232e6e4a6e36bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | bra-bah-fec-2025-11-20 | Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-20? | 79,293,515 | 79,293,515 |
7a112f974c357226152f1b5a16bb5ccefadc875f | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0xd4671d00551bdc94bbd7b73bb8b8cbb6c17f835bf1f9871a69f5acb8e7f5eaf5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | bra-cor1-sao-2025-11-20 | Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? | 79,296,913 | 79,296,913 |
6607303d2122665aec3736c6cbc46c1714c813eb | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x23fcdf728d11fb06bed9af1a4a34401ae81b9daeee8c14363e6553f3179e737c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | bra-cor1-sao-2025-11-20 | Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-11-20? | 79,296,918 | 79,296,918 |
695497412127eb85458e35d01b1cf93abedefc17 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x86d011ac6d25ffc179248bb336df3295cb1023f6132bf31d0bfc33b062cb307b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 0.983305 | bra-cor1-sao-2025-11-20 | Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-11-20? | 79,296,928 | 79,296,928 |
1591836ee49665ed8fd1817a852f08125ea02674 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x45a961d4d74e6a0a9d77a9b98a094e6b7afe7045218d582ef0bad56cfc7b164a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | mex-tij-jua-2025-11-20 | Will Club Tijuana vs. FC Juárez end in a draw? | 79,305,520 | 79,305,520 |
d94f5f5df895a541d6d3474172966bfe0f17637f | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x7dd3dc447a408da3e31235e2b269ab48bb04e9e1d74461b20bcff67ff4804370 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | bun-mai-hof-2025-11-21 | Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-21? | 79,335,396 | 79,335,396 |
5e90aaf34930deb7cae7400622b972c83afdfbca | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x7026bb0936f7f44290f67a160e0fd44d8ce2268711842158be0c641ca24d3f35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: ar... | no | 1 | bun-mai-hof-2025-11-21 | Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-11-21? | 79,335,401 | 79,335,401 |
6c4cd551e135ae49523c247747b92ab4e557f52d | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x8b7d0616fffdff0b7a7f0b5c2a85e5d2c7dc570332e8c29773e0d01fda53bc18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39617615898952224
2. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-aaj-bel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente end in a ... | yes | 0.555556 | elc-pne-bbr-2025-11-21 | Will Preston North End FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC end in a draw? | 79,335,406 | 79,335,406 |
736b3493fa520d9ac93c661fb79caea064727f12 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x7138499fe717342e400c306ad41917fc47712a5422b645658d17cef93f8dccbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-aaj-bel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente end in a draw? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata vs. CA Vélez Sars... | no | 0.107143 | elc-pne-bbr-2025-11-21 | Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2025-11-21? | 79,335,412 | 79,335,412 |
205d740bb50df0e2424afd223c11f4b61858d601 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x940996716ec583c08ddc4807f15a7318329d11d1fed8e5346569d2f7548835db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente end in a draw? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield end in a draw? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Mineiro... | no | 1 | elc-pne-bbr-2025-11-21 | Will Preston North End FC win on 2025-11-21? | 79,335,417 | 79,335,417 |
1e3bc2b8bf19f13ffce810f940ce59c37e690bcd | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x71776ccc28bf38b08a89519d045a0c0b4334d2b49f48cf7d24c0a73585b06ec5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield end in a draw? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-11-12? | Event: bra-cam-fec-2025-11-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.38862915604565423
3. Question: Will Fortaleza E... | no | 1 | lal-val-lev-2025-11-21 | Will Valencia vs. Levante UD end in a draw? | 79,336,092 | 79,336,092 |
29baf9d60ea2f796d2d9aa8daf4deaf11b8ed2d7 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x23dcf25f55983932be3638dad0c80ae1ff2f48ba9749a9f28f8a9bcb161363c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-11-12? | Event: bra-cam-fec-2025-11-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.38862915604565423
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-12? | Event: bra-cam-fec-2025-11-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Andorra win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-and-alb-... | no | 1 | lal-val-lev-2025-11-21 | Will Levante UD win on 2025-11-21? | 79,336,097 | 79,336,097 |
8b2b0fe6dcbf7e1bf835de3e476a2f76f23ed083 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x5ed55218fede48c79c4b2cee6c4620de4b7ac17296e94ba19cd41b0e0a6f360d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-12? | Event: bra-cam-fec-2025-11-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Andorra win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-and-alb-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Estonia win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-nor-est-2025-11-13 | Choice... | no | 1 | tur-kay-gfk-2025-11-22 | Will Kayserispor win on 2025-11-22? | 79,363,013 | 79,363,013 |
b87378fd7ab6ef2e3abe999a801f5915d304ddae | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x7a31e9168d3a2c8d4dc59f39701cf053769a0d373467448ecd539047cf684b93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andorra win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-and-alb-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Estonia win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-nor-est-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-fra-ukr-2025-11-13 | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | kor-gwa-uls-2025-11-22 | Will Ulsan HD FC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,363,019 | 79,363,019 |
b473517751271ee06798837e1284a637882f8ec6 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0xa9a5663e8a15149d3f7573f373290162cbb84737d41d56c358fa9673794f34b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Estonia win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-nor-est-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-fra-ukr-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-eng-ser-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes... | no | 1 | kor-any-suw-2025-11-22 | Will FC Anyang vs. Suwon FC end in a draw? | 79,363,025 | 79,363,025 |
d53414bd2c0271e110e6bc98ab561eed1d146212 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x92f01431afea8314413adcd141e8324d83e057821075895734cce42e86a84a90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-fra-ukr-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-eng-ser-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Poland win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-pol-nld-2025-11-14 | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | kor-dae1-gwo-2025-11-22 | Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,363,030 | 79,363,030 |
1a91ab3a96e341d8677dcad77d1faeef2e9d7c61 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x33c39dc120cb63435fd3bcc1dcd868bedc53efcab39a80b5a14002ffb08076c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-eng-ser-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Poland win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-pol-nld-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-hrv-far-2025-11-14 | Choic... | no | 1 | kor-seo-san-2025-11-22 | Will FC Seoul win on 2025-11-22? | 79,363,034 | 79,363,034 |
2bf8b390167c28c82f938a5be03795276f520284 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x2b0f60073972565aa57aaf8d060f9c5364d154a6ff9cb592638e36b81a3c52bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Poland win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-pol-nld-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-hrv-far-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Luxembourg win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-lux-ger-2025-11-14 | Cho... | no | 1 | tur-kay-gfk-2025-11-22 | Will Gaziantep FK win on 2025-11-22? | 79,363,587 | 79,363,587 |
15447870baa421881dc593e3479ba7df4f70b1ea | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0xe17d337500aa53aafe106d5e92d0f9f5a5dada2ad1f55195d18d8a371e7e25be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-hrv-far-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luxembourg win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-lux-ger-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Indiana | Event: cfb-wisc-ind-2025-11-15 | Cho... | yes | 0.622462 | elc-cov-wba-2025-11-22 | Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,368,227 | 79,368,227 |
cec2c30da7b5d9be950bf92fe6c266bda3bc1e80 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x2bc59855a3638b1d6ff7f784cfd7084b4be61231e744511b9dc2dba219dbeac2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luxembourg win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-lux-ger-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Indiana | Event: cfb-wisc-ind-2025-11-15 | Choice: indiana | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bulgaria win on 2025-11-15? | Event: uef-tur-bul-2025-11-15 | Cho... | yes | 1 | epl-bur-che-2025-11-22 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-22? | 79,368,233 | 79,368,233 |
46a1d338d0a9dd87b0c63816445821e47e8916ba | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x355f7a1d813163a3c680e4b979db87c2879c3a2c6824e6671a142244ae146865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Indiana | Event: cfb-wisc-ind-2025-11-15 | Choice: indiana | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bulgaria win on 2025-11-15? | Event: uef-tur-bul-2025-11-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Commanders vs. Dolphins | Event: nfl-was-mia-2025-11-16 | Choice: comman... | no | 0.38226 | nor-tro-rbk-2025-11-22 | Will Tromsø IL win on 2025-11-22? | 79,368,239 | 79,368,239 |
0172baca36fba9ece447abfac3788cfe111e8e5f | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x09aed7365ed1586685a5546d845bfc66a1e98d50ab0f1e5375fbb3138a195a94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bulgaria win on 2025-11-15? | Event: uef-tur-bul-2025-11-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Commanders vs. Dolphins | Event: nfl-was-mia-2025-11-16 | Choice: commanders | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-fra-ukr-2025-11-13 | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | elc-cha-sot-2025-11-22 | Will Charlton Athletic FC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw? | 79,368,245 | 79,368,245 |
a7d27529ef08423486069d6bd36690e54e50175d | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x7cf0f34759e339e454ede0f2232bf93b792d259f95d2de17f0b6061c9ca0c3f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Commanders vs. Dolphins | Event: nfl-was-mia-2025-11-16 | Choice: commanders | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-fra-ukr-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iceland win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-aze-isl-2025-11-13 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | epl-bur-che-2025-11-22 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,368,250 | 79,368,250 |
987f298a9c223c1835ba0dcf91e5dd067e5b65c4 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0xf5207508633fb8e2ef8c4f18ac22e6037cb8f29e2a7bb75ed307bf1d2300ead2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-fra-ukr-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Iceland win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-aze-isl-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hungary win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-arm-hun-2025-11-13 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | elc-cov-wba-2025-11-22 | Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,368,256 | 79,368,256 |
f0c69cb82a4e075a9a4015a5d62e49f6776f715a | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x6693186b775382538986330bfee6938b243acf7bb9f8c20d358d0458c1d476aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iceland win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-aze-isl-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hungary win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-arm-hun-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-mol-ita-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | ... | yes | 1 | elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,368,262 | 79,368,262 |
e0d521c8a5c174950e6f336aae1880311e4c4d76 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x87dd8e75144adf5896cecd9da3ea3171dc10975f6d77c04af69085ccb439bb79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hungary win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-arm-hun-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-mol-ita-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-i... | no | 1 | sea-cag-gen-2025-11-22 | Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,368,268 | 79,368,268 |
ededeb7d73b8d77b12d472357f8a54c6f0fc53e2 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0xf719ec1efeaba6f3f115198384808dacb081565f1eee01e8978fb5d03f1158bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-mol-ita-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-20? | Event: br... | yes | 1 | bun-bay-fre-2025-11-22 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-22? | 79,368,274 | 79,368,274 |
61b44bf86021dd52e308518110450d9e82e6f61a | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x54915b6a065ae5afc34a373c6c40fb99ae2e04edc220ad6d27635362e03022e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-20? | Event: bra-bah-fec-2025-11-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6717477310236117
3. Question: Will EC Bahia vs. Fortale... | yes | 0.526718 | elc-cov-wba-2025-11-22 | Will Coventry City FC vs. West Bromwich Albion FC end in a draw? | 79,368,280 | 79,368,280 |
16a7b75520b9fef1522b7713d1e4037390c2dcd6 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x8671753e16b9fe2fee04654b93f1fbc5a27ea9ca71564bae0d4908bb8d448b0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-20? | Event: bra-bah-fec-2025-11-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6717477310236117
2. Question: Will EC Bahia vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? | Event: bra-bah-fec-2025-11-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-20? | Event: ... | no | 1 | sea-udi-bol-2025-11-22 | Will Udinese Calcio win on 2025-11-22? | 79,368,286 | 79,368,286 |
f4b9dc27d915e90263a88ee89ef98d256fce5f2d | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0xf6cb71599c7eb2b78e3f382b9b4f050b453708f6a14fd86f4e924a8f99a8668b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? | Event: bra-bah-fec-2025-11-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-20? | Event: bra-bah-fec-2025-11-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? |... | no | 1 | epl-ful-sun-2025-11-22 | Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,370,522 | 79,370,522 |
53223573b235d5d21ab84451bf5d64566724344f | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x8fd453a30b631f0e9472819b47704771c0b7d03972105da15b14f2b58cc49ef4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-20? | Event: bra-bah-fec-2025-11-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? | Event: bra-cor1-sao-2025-11-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-11-20? | Event: ... | no | 1 | lal-bar-bil-2025-11-22 | Will Barcelona vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? | 79,370,528 | 79,370,528 |
a241ece62898cc399c59bc5e5497dbbb010096db | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x6bc015795691e1a162e1b729960c85346387ad1a7c09338acd51790b7e98e01d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? | Event: bra-cor1-sao-2025-11-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-11-20? | Event: bra-cor1-sao-2025-11-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-... | no | 1 | bun-wol-b04-2025-11-22 | Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-11-22? | 79,370,534 | 79,370,534 |
5c6f4c46f06d5a3b17f306ac864aadedcf61f4f0 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x9a907af70788c328f961cdfe4dd527a293941288e60a1f19906f04deb6dfd628 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-11-20? | Event: bra-cor1-sao-2025-11-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-11-20? | Event: bra-cor1-sao-2025-11-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.983305458111579
3. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. FC Juárez end in a... | yes | 0.489072 | sea-fio-juv-2025-11-22 | Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,377,113 | 79,377,113 |
bf9349534ab127a56a0d778e48da906a2c48c3dd | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0xc2446f5f502f7a1592f3c1cfbeb0ce277ba8b446c5e38186e6593923cb025db9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-11-20? | Event: bra-cor1-sao-2025-11-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.983305458111579
2. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. FC Juárez end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-jua-2025-11-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-1... | yes | 0.144829 | epl-new-mac-2025-11-22 | Will Newcastle vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | 79,377,118 | 79,377,118 |
b4a287ca7b5354db41f8a225cb6bd008e18071fe | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x48e643a93888373f93e64dfc22038fa38e9f0eef2d5a739e76fc8ab0881dc1c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. FC Juárez end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-jua-2025-11-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-21? | Event: bun-mai-hof-2025-11-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-11-21? | Event: bun-mai-... | no | 0.478493 | epl-new-mac-2025-11-22 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? | 79,377,128 | 79,377,128 |
d9c346698a657f32399b6c701137ed7fada69186 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0xac5e2c0bc09508a6fb466c06241e28810f65e585a3089a8ecefbcfd35ebf8345 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-21? | Event: bun-mai-hof-2025-11-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-11-21? | Event: bun-mai-hof-2025-11-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Preston North End FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC end in a draw?... | no | 1 | tur-gal-gen-2025-11-22 | Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2025-11-22? | 79,377,153 | 79,377,153 |
31ab56e505eeaf83a077c728eaaa9f16b9e88e69 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x456dae4a37178d636d9574bbad4830fc169990324a1a0a40332829379ea2f136 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-11-21? | Event: bun-mai-hof-2025-11-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Preston North End FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC end in a draw? | Event: elc-pne-bbr-2025-11-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5555558791111991
3. Question: Will Blackburn Rover... | no | 1 | es2-eib-zar-2025-11-22 | Will SD Eibar win on 2025-11-22? | 79,377,158 | 79,377,158 |
b919048de7126272b8cbac026139a2b0dda68413 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x5a095b0e876f74acaa3b08ef1307ebcbc91c94c27f885daef0b62642ce853be3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Preston North End FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC end in a draw? | Event: elc-pne-bbr-2025-11-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5555558791111991
2. Question: Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2025-11-21? | Event: elc-pne-bbr-2025-11-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10714285121173235
3. Question: ... | no | 0.564202 | sea-fio-juv-2025-11-22 | Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? | 79,377,163 | 79,377,163 |
ccc63bdba7da4e0abc69931ea37de22a2fbca49b | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x5a1991e69f29e70102f4154a8cf01f83951c22ea99656b91360c2b36ffc45315 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2025-11-21? | Event: elc-pne-bbr-2025-11-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10714285121173235
2. Question: Will Preston North End FC win on 2025-11-21? | Event: elc-pne-bbr-2025-11-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Valencia vs. Levante UD end in ... | no | 1 | sea-fio-juv-2025-11-22 | Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-11-22? | 79,377,178 | 79,377,178 |
02c8b534cdddbae5b63ab084988d5da3ebc51e65 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x1c075490e264701cb3dc33293b63557cc40d0e835ae6c1c125b8b9f9cd9d7d80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Preston North End FC win on 2025-11-21? | Event: elc-pne-bbr-2025-11-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Valencia vs. Levante UD end in a draw? | Event: lal-val-lev-2025-11-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Levante UD win on 2025-11-21? | Event: lal-val-... | yes | 0.911204 | epl-new-mac-2025-11-22 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | 79,377,188 | 79,377,188 |
2de1d4640e700ba1730e10e5a06b06cb5d432a50 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x53bb8ea93e85d70b8185029f2f315c41aeae70c1b0611276ee97e85b1415b4fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Valencia vs. Levante UD end in a draw? | Event: lal-val-lev-2025-11-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Levante UD win on 2025-11-21? | Event: lal-val-lev-2025-11-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kayserispor win on 2025-11-22? | Event: tur-kay-gfk-2025-... | no | 1 | bun-koe-ein-2025-11-22 | Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-11-22? | 79,377,193 | 79,377,193 |
37dca7af9365a4cfe61f1464d181d56b88a4a1cf | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x5ab11c63e981826523a6c9043d23fceeeac581b651395e8c10a2d659f63ae47e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Levante UD win on 2025-11-21? | Event: lal-val-lev-2025-11-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kayserispor win on 2025-11-22? | Event: tur-kay-gfk-2025-11-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ulsan HD FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: kor-gwa-uls-2025-11-22 | ... | no | 1 | mls-vwh-laf-2025-11-22 | Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,396,163 | 79,396,163 |
09cf1433084e942b96feed46defeaafc183b9886 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x87191be7911f9b3628ef1cfa437123ec72352699e0a0079fd4c81a25ff26fe5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kayserispor win on 2025-11-22? | Event: tur-kay-gfk-2025-11-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ulsan HD FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: kor-gwa-uls-2025-11-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Anyang vs. Suwon FC end in a draw? | Event: kor-any-suw-2025-... | no | 1 | ere-her-goa-2025-11-22 | Will Heracles Almelo vs. Go Ahead Eagles end in a draw? | 79,396,189 | 79,396,189 |
d7e5a4d36bd06b9f58aaec9ccc162078c50fb830 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x47d3dc2e6c30955ef3fa433cef18c34a2c702cb4b8f13c59879d59aeaed56433 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ulsan HD FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: kor-gwa-uls-2025-11-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Anyang vs. Suwon FC end in a draw? | Event: kor-any-suw-2025-11-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: kor-d... | no | 1 | ere-spa-sit-2025-11-22 | Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2025-11-22? | 79,396,200 | 79,396,200 |
e509d4bcf2ce04b7a760c337b232e6e136810448 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x1d0fd31d74b6013a6a64e997015cc58e1a1a9557bf73aa68adadc4d6ef11248a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Anyang vs. Suwon FC end in a draw? | Event: kor-any-suw-2025-11-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: kor-dae1-gwo-2025-11-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-11-22? | Event: kor-seo... | no | 0.454398 | scop-stm-cel-2025-11-22 | Will Celtic FC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,396,205 | 79,396,205 |
23fb211d298b540847004ded486478bac24b7594 | 0x366c74554db8ea58ad71bff0ffd659d3f1808184 | 0x565b79a09e4a8f0f6c926cee97e06fbba0223cad789cb0e77c191f8e0e9d0c95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2025-11-22? | Event: kor-dae1-gwo-2025-11-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-11-22? | Event: kor-seo-san-2025-11-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gaziantep FK win on 2025-11-22? | Event: tur-kay-gfk-2... | no | 0.138889 | lal-vil-mal-2025-11-22 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-11-22? | 79,396,215 | 79,396,215 |
d4ef516def53c27c81b29f18ba4ce75941870ce5 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x638aa7498ce6909809c875b7ab15c5fd1b708a709218fc09f74de4745441d700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30?
Event: largest-company-on-september-30
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | largest-company-on-september-30 | Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | 61,992,651 | 61,993,061 |
5efa91384425ebaf2fc234bb386c84939d3ed3a9 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xefc8187a5c4e994a5c224a47dc4774db5706a70352f6995b2c79af45a0f7dc00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison?
Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target ma... | no | 1 | caroline-ellison-prison-time | Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | 61,993,414 | 61,993,666 |
c344e55a5cd66270bf52734f78c486508bf32200 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x9ce25435a01fa26daec2a3ff4e72b4eada10e08ee416e995f22215e22785d000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Fed decreases... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting? | 61,995,482 | 62,749,875 |
4c9aba3673d9bfef5388f61d4b55b1b3fd0ed653 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xbc425549dfa96c89beefa96229584077863ecb1f29ef56f7249e378795a34500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? | 61,995,824 | 61,995,895 |
5e90938b25391049684051491f49a5d6f7820e1a | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x74880de173d72c0662dba2194bbb04f31d1935c929999f7ad4bb4c1820538700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | la-liga-winner | Will Real Madrid win La Liga? | 61,995,949 | 61,995,949 |
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