sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9de107610c83629ecf0ba2d138a06a94dc0c6c81 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xd2c10628e74b85fae2c89b7a63642960d53bd7533652e076b339e7d6b32f319f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 0.971651 | mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Mexican Presidential Election: Will Xóchitl Gálvez win? | 57,764,558 | 57,764,558 |
2a20390f168579a53372d3063a08274c9a1e5205 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x07954fd1965dea6b78eaa5f6823d3546b8219a284fd89b27454b7f05f4098340 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | may-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will May 2024 show an increase of less than 1.03C? | 58,054,848 | 58,054,848 |
120308efbe0432afe05dfbb075cc9adce3016a43 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x32bd8e6b98769c54edb9779fc3e6884b74e93c51db1e8e930afa482e437ba29d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | utah-senate-republican-primary-winner | Will John Curtis win the Utah Republican Primary? | 58,831,320 | 58,831,320 |
f606adc8bd8c760f36821fd8e844f4b0df913575 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xa170badb9aa75ead683a8bcdc8be678426ffb400579b12fd6d2f19d8f6dc0e79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | uk-elections-who-will-win-most-seats | Labour wins the most seats in next UK election? | 59,030,253 | 59,030,253 |
ec8449d63d5cd1944cbad2655093c2ca420f2e4d | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xb221b60ad37321d595b3d3a4a162fd116cb62f48396935339e16d3dd879a2d4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | uk-elections-who-will-win-most-seats | Reform wins the most seats in next UK election? | 59,030,253 | 59,030,253 |
c1e57141cf26b37009be199f8df60161435e0e88 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xcaddc7b29a7f6346cae62c0833ad548c5a609f214507e5525572d31e238f4451 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | uk-election-next-prime-minister | Will Rishi Sunak be next UK prime minister? | 59,030,253 | 59,030,253 |
aacfd9d12489ba6ef0e8cee31a2b95a75f3ae665 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x9b13ed97fbb29248e694d220dd4cb0ed64976c8cba7f3a26273946fedcb9e9d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | reform-share-of-votes-in-uk-election | Reform wins between 11% and 15% of votes? | 59,051,714 | 59,051,714 |
da547b929295922d451b27daf4fa71927eda07fc | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xb2b5be8a3ca1a1c41eeae8b7e4b3ce7d5bb515a3f4b745277d55a1c311e73753 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | british-grand-prix-winner | Will Lando Norris win the British Grand Prix? | 59,082,872 | 59,082,872 |
e0c86131e8f98556c29b6cb32c04f542c66c0630 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x7bf82abf3881cb54659acec1246f9d0d004e0ba206e1f5f1fd2dc0f93da319b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | 59,097,117 | 59,097,117 |
3ab769199b3bd2c7bb9ef404bbec595f59136486 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x5d1eb572579a2d4646330ab22fb9d6db2ffc81367fc2a0ca7f0ce58dcad57db8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-french-election | Will The Republicans win the most seats in the National Assembly? | 59,109,548 | 59,109,548 |
5a78cd6ea100e74394d2228f0b57e87267ea729e | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x2a73336e8c3ef5370ec96357f575fdbf5e2a457f012a04cad85da6ab07b2f8dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | republican-nominee-2024 | Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? | 59,414,337 | 59,414,337 |
9abd75ebdd5e854f1284e8a9751392338c5ab33d | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x4372614786010b9b7fb52cffa0bdc1359ea81c7cbc75c5bbc619c68326692b37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | republican-nominee-2024 | Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? | 59,414,337 | 59,414,337 |
9bf923efb798cd680206e52203f3b0e28c4ca0c1 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x59d7ec34e4f9ef67350a97363baeaee60bd7979091cc166420b08a17e38aa43f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | republican-nominee-2024 | Will someone else win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? | 59,414,337 | 59,414,337 |
1e2a8ccfe298133c043199bd00bf334b6e3a14c9 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x7703a1a7d3834391fe4121aa80c562bff05c9f4476ac59002b746b10e0a1050e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | republican-nominee-2024 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? | 59,414,337 | 59,414,337 |
36e26a7b1ea812a09e81d6f02bdff563c60e4cb0 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xd35c80d2f97f129c9297139425e0e19fc8ce596af45a68cb5fde2ec9309d5392 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | republican-nominee-2024 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? | 59,414,337 | 59,414,337 |
994d88226b4a095ed6b51e4e61cab72df9c3c206 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x34e309581ef62fea969e3e4ca8729878e646fc589aeec6f1f63ecfa7e8220f01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-rcp-polling-margin-on-aug-30 | Will Kamala lead by 0-0.9 August 30? | 61,232,599 | 61,232,599 |
33fec71d25187c2d4d45ffa495b153ec69e64209 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xa3350cd8ab7fef7b047d7937da1e006b2dae2354805d34cfcbae88ed798d1841 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-rcp-polling-margin-on-aug-30 | Will Trump lead on August 30? | 61,232,599 | 61,232,599 |
dfdbdecfaff713cbbda01eb265a8d0bd51763d82 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xf7337e8e597d016a97575a4e88b4306a38ae30b1edcda80d92e5811f7936b470 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-6 | Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 6? | 61,562,243 | 61,562,243 |
c9963ca848651ccc2b796eb102599b64728b3adc | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x7dfaac4a0c4f46f0bebae182271efb300f45e1e692c20b78baf43992d5f1ec96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | No Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | 61,826,659 | 61,826,659 |
cfc80561b72b578bd3967b30e0bd6ad1ffcd80e9 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xb20072387cd12bc73f3a6fd30fdd5aa1644c8f72f958803d90fc05c51db0ac49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 0.001131 | fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | 62,023,746 | 62,023,746 |
2d32403a7b1d7d32eccb15e2730bb0c43ccd2b6a | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x5107a55d323a08369382e5dd6f44dc76c67e8ef1575dc0d66b9329d73531c5fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Carlos Sainz win the Singapore Grand Prix? | 62,294,689 | 62,294,689 |
ef53ec818ca1f3ec67fb00ff7dc04286cfc14456 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x52869b1652a5225954aa99412c82a5b85c2d1b5175bfd62c494c8aa6ef9b07f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will another driver win the Singapore Grand Prix? | 62,294,689 | 62,294,689 |
8aefa3f3e728c2e10de9968d77e77e5cc2dd438e | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xbcb415fae3cb3d86bf8a6344276b4ca52ce0f4b666c8848fede1ebc0fb9074ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Fernando Alonso win the Singapore Grand Prix? | 62,294,689 | 62,294,689 |
6c7982937e3997aaad0863bfc0764ad4f5c58e39 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xbe51bd55fe637670cd4e9baaecd7061ae5aa7ed184fba94032dc7e6ad4b89c0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will George Russell win the Singapore Grand Prix? | 62,294,689 | 62,294,689 |
31c6bf0519273b65828a0b4f8be4b31fbec7f041 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xccd21676ac1c4bec1ffb53517cef4eda06d9469d7a409345f20ad92e73035749 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the Singapore Grand Prix? | 62,294,689 | 62,294,689 |
c6ba708ba6996b09231289dab9737e3821812cbb | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xd2827f3767400cb33b8ed82e6a3513a7311a24ce52e4fce039636fa280aeba8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the Singapore Grand Prix? | 62,294,689 | 62,294,689 |
92e1d2df41642da05d0ed71c05ee8d9077b8b693 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x3152fcc7da5c33d1c3ad137387a7123b17d4809b63c3922b766e0fc4be917b8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | largest-company-on-september-30 | Will NVDA be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | 62,494,394 | 62,494,394 |
ea6b2bded5c59f1c50a5f220aeb824f7514dfee1 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xc7d1ddc6094bf77ad53316c09df6bdaeb449eaa3a6d7df72dc107b6252fe1d41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | of-debates-between-vance-and-walz | No Vance vs. Walz debates before election? | 62,533,097 | 62,533,097 |
33df89d948207c69b374b94de678fe48b62256cf | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x1652ed7c8396de76eb1c18c202e75def313f836c8184f52ae4236ca26990f115 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will Claudia Sheinbaum win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence... | no | 1 | new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a Republican win New York Presidential Election? | 63,961,414 | 63,961,414 |
24e5aeb9720ddc0c0fe48efa07993efc38fc9d2f | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xe3cc8e738278608ba439c84bcab682ac9bb41563f8a82f6c0914f51b5cd40d29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will Claudia Sheinbaum win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will Xóchitl Gálvez win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0... | yes | 1 | nebraska-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Nebraska Presidential Election? | 63,961,424 | 63,961,424 |
6d8a9401399bb75980ddce69e2ece7d0c3601b14 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xe0673ab015b7cee314e91600e7bfc7f5b45b9c8096279937a65027a228efb35b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will Xóchitl Gálvez win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9716513436989318
2. Question: Will May 2024 show an increase of less than 1.03C? | Event: may-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | kansas-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Kansas Presidential Election? | 63,961,434 | 63,961,434 |
b5a260530cf6e8b45c4a0656299eab2c5414eedb | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x8a33bf23210666f8f49a8fa8f7a54bb0a55a8b0c929f78c6bd4ce3867b80d832 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will May 2024 show an increase of less than 1.03C? | Event: may-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will John Curtis win the Utah Republican Primary? | Event: utah-senate-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Labour wins the... | yes | 1 | vermont-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Vermont Presidential Election? | 63,961,444 | 63,961,444 |
56dedf589993424986f61f52dc712e9f2c12b2d3 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x896ed831aef8b7210f9d100c9ea42e41eae0575c9b6ad0f1fef26620f48d22f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will John Curtis win the Utah Republican Primary? | Event: utah-senate-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Labour wins the most seats in next UK election? | Event: uk-elections-who-will-win-most-seats | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Reform wins ... | no | 1 | texas-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,961,449 | 63,961,449 |
59dfb58178745e27ae83d9ca96f0a4fa6b64135b | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xfd5c9b03f12eecadb202a974172578039283f7b4105209a86ef3003d7e88835a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Labour wins the most seats in next UK election? | Event: uk-elections-who-will-win-most-seats | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Reform wins the most seats in next UK election? | Event: uk-elections-who-will-win-most-seats | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rishi Sunak... | yes | 1 | utah-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Utah Presidential Election? | 63,961,453 | 63,961,453 |
1ade1c560d78d4ad11206ce69e1457a90ea81d66 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xc5beee218c5ebc772faa7f53a7196a3d1ba16dfcb74767586c232c2e3c89ed3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the most seats in next UK election? | Event: uk-elections-who-will-win-most-seats | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rishi Sunak be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Reform wins between 11% an... | yes | 1 | new-york-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win New York US Senate Election? | 63,985,561 | 63,985,561 |
23d86aedcdb1730cd16b0b4fb319ff28e94230d9 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x4b567661cfcce03df2719a474499d5314c5fd2882002d549811e1ee5be35f5d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rishi Sunak be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Reform wins between 11% and 15% of votes? | Event: reform-share-of-votes-in-uk-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Briti... | yes | 1 | vermont-governor-election-winner | Will a Republican win Vermont Governor Election? | 63,985,568 | 63,985,568 |
7141e7e9f56ffa7155238e20e0c358909b14fa11 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x622fc1127c6af2e644689936aeb61b284e6b1f4eb7d401910fe5ca7bcf4058e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins between 11% and 15% of votes? | Event: reform-share-of-votes-in-uk-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lando Norris win the British Grand Prix? | Event: british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the ... | yes | 1 | montana-governor-election-winner | Will a Republican win Montana Governor Election? | 63,985,571 | 63,985,571 |
4b13207052b6a2000e8b105a936dda8f6ef711b2 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x5b6ccf86a766f363d0c3d24f17f40974c706d85c67827d4f3dcaeae4b90070c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the British Grand Prix? | Event: british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will The Rep... | yes | 1 | mississippi-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Republican win Mississippi US Senate Election? | 63,985,579 | 63,985,579 |
46e661143d07d16ac56faeddb47914252d29f1f0 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x6df98eb438c1f05a25777081147758e081205896f293b6a3711c9b72b9fc4312 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will The Republicans win the most seats in the National Assembly? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: n... | no | 1 | hawaii-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Republican win Hawaii US Senate Election? | 63,985,596 | 63,985,596 |
a652a4f54b7f3610a67127691912fa59c53a98ee | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xa923afcb8297e3ade170f2f8c088f3c277557fadef2c67054d72cc59f8504b2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The Republicans win the most seats in the National Assembly? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? | Event: republican-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confiden... | yes | 1 | pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | 63,985,600 | 63,985,600 |
ae1ebedf48bf11647b7f37a8f0a66a5e899c6541 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x6a425b7b03692e2409f1c9471a9de354c1a9d5989f56c5dae0ef66b15f589de9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? | Event: republican-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? | Event: republican-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | minnesota-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Minnesota US Senate Election? | 63,985,604 | 63,985,604 |
650f37ea52255e44e9017ae8a503532a3e20d229 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xdf36fcc041cadc34d517a8548330f8bb0312c9acef4f621c89fee89610cf995c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? | Event: republican-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will someone else win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? | Event: republican-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | virginia-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Virginia US Senate Election? | 63,985,606 | 63,985,606 |
18240b0c4989e8f932f6d1d900d3a248ef79ed42 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x2db799252bb7d76814e8281450160bbefd34acc104bdfe5068d3e2683f12b018 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will someone else win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? | Event: republican-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ron DeSantis win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? | Event: republican-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | california-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win California US Senate Election? | 63,985,609 | 63,985,609 |
972bf1180f9cd52b1b98a897d82f2b1d3a42c64e | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x1d372482a1170a5591237fb8881b1cfe25a1caf69adf58035d406530eb39556d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ron DeSantis win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? | Event: republican-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? | Event: republican-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Hawaii Presidential Election? | 63,985,612 | 63,985,612 |
7924fd22eafa7c184b1dbeb5a589c7da1cf24efc | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x7b6e2c898681a2cb3dcb7920751cf9edcc0e2ada657ffe4b84c3ac6c5a8ed5c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? | Event: republican-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala lead by 0-0.9 August 30? | Event: trump-vs-harris-rcp-polling-margin-on-aug-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump... | no | 1 | nebraska-senate-special-election | Will a candidate from another party win Nebraska Special Senate Election? | 63,985,614 | 63,985,614 |
1324dcc2890c395921f0d777176401bb0e355250 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x25e48d2f5c66a03982f233e67f8131159e884dc186e6a55cc2e413d07e74830c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead by 0-0.9 August 30? | Event: trump-vs-harris-rcp-polling-margin-on-aug-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump lead on August 30? | Event: trump-vs-harris-rcp-polling-margin-on-aug-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept... | yes | 1 | montana-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Republican win Montana US Senate Election? | 63,985,616 | 63,985,616 |
3b18cebe3878e5512cdc03795fbd5b17e226fb52 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x6964df311eba3add433112c9ab13ef529c8e2e07e7c115b9cc548de035f5b25f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead on August 30? | Event: trump-vs-harris-rcp-polling-margin-on-aug-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 6? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No Trump vs. Harris debates before el... | no | 1 | california-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win California Presidential Election? | 63,985,620 | 63,985,620 |
8326dcc018152b622ce2990e98136e2ca269c03b | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x7606802127355512c8f8ff9c70ef27a2717a8554374d84452de4c7d28147338d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 6? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No change in Fed interes... | yes | 1 | georgia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | 63,985,624 | 63,985,624 |
94d0a16cafa7e4038e084672969e43b1a9479ee2 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xa7a031b137f7a4bbc90e82625a8421725344c5c602ab52622786c457238ce142 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00113106172600904... | no | 1 | maryland-us-senate-election-winner | Will a candidate from another party win Maryland US Senate Election? | 63,985,630 | 63,985,630 |
6b94a7013053cfc7dbe89c23809eb8545c461ae5 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xe091e98ebfc781f2709d337babb7d66daefa35326c34eb33ac5115f34d4027d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0011310617260090478
2. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Singapore Grand Prix? | Event: singapore-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | congressional-district-1st-maine-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Maine's 1st congressional district? | 63,985,634 | 63,985,634 |
3c14e24244ebbc8a39de473f3c0f91a9361ace2e | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x39c61dcf31b932edce2e9129b1e1e6d5acf2da47a2c0f4647af4033e01e8283f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Singapore Grand Prix? | Event: singapore-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another driver win the Singapore Grand Prix? | Event: singapore-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fernando Alonso win the Sing... | yes | 1 | delaware-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Delaware US Senate Election? | 63,985,638 | 63,985,638 |
56a8a741a86d371094ece3679f4d580cec6d0865 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xa57263cad0bac26bb8b1afaf45fdcfbc255e98a302831c8ee4aa21feb8ebb014 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another driver win the Singapore Grand Prix? | Event: singapore-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Alonso win the Singapore Grand Prix? | Event: singapore-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will George Russell win the Si... | yes | 1 | utah-governor-election-winner | Will a Republican win Utah Governor Election? | 63,985,642 | 63,985,642 |
05533613853bd3bfb5dd69995a2f05e0bcb30cbc | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xc30f00a90f6e41ce6f42b7739c9e3f453351c9b9d596fc4ac7c647c6bcc17e6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fernando Alonso win the Singapore Grand Prix? | Event: singapore-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will George Russell win the Singapore Grand Prix? | Event: singapore-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the S... | no | 1 | missouri-governor-election-winner | Will a candidate from another party win Missouri Governor Election? | 63,985,647 | 63,985,647 |
3f6403aa3b0b80aecbed3d9c9599a8243b25fa37 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x2b56ba9f29601cbd226521a3081b150232f10e7e46591e4e33826aa406c3dbcc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will George Russell win the Singapore Grand Prix? | Event: singapore-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the Singapore Grand Prix? | Event: singapore-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the Sin... | yes | 1 | washington-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Washington US Senate Election? | 63,986,080 | 63,986,080 |
e66426646f6a7543894b2d704e742fdd18fc6b04 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x20e2d5f8c92270e87a3f60672a67c649e781f9c2ab8b30055ce4e2fb48c458dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the Singapore Grand Prix? | Event: singapore-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the Singapore Grand Prix? | Event: singapore-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will NVDA be the largest compan... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting? | 64,036,842 | 64,036,842 |
672bf1f4db0f314f79562f226f3868f1aa591147 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x2d75f221ec38a3c8a5c43507bc44e68073a69cc26e249afa37bf97d7dd207512 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the Singapore Grand Prix? | Event: singapore-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will NVDA be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No Vance vs. Walz de... | no | 1 | texas-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Texas US Senate Election? | 64,036,842 | 64,036,842 |
f4257ce41544b371cfa44d99a2612a6ec574374a | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x352ac53453f995e751d2d90c7d781441eba9d1c4c7ebbc8e738fc570a543665b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVDA be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Vance vs. Walz debates before election? | Event: of-debates-between-vance-and-walz | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Republican wi... | no | 1 | wisconsin-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Republican win Wisconsin US Senate Election? | 64,036,842 | 64,036,842 |
1e1a9647482ae64d8e85f8f42bca916d1dafca42 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x3ceadb2db8926fcc1e9f5b28d765ee20721f2aa9537bdb5d17f0fa2ab7cbd5cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No Vance vs. Walz debates before election? | Event: of-debates-between-vance-and-walz | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New York Presidential Election? | Event: new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Republ... | no | 1 | maryland-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Republican win Maryland US Senate Election? | 64,036,842 | 64,036,842 |
ceed1cf84ce0f57fd4444740c94cfc6fc52ce132 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x42e7fa3bd683a276dae0292f0ab910ac18eb76ce7cf014ec9203f6539768735a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win New York Presidential Election? | Event: new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Nebraska Presidential Election? | Event: nebraska-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | how-many-fed-rate-cuts-this-year | Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024? | 64,036,842 | 64,036,842 |
c8e8869b871289e12459aa0f43b4e1dd469f8ad9 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x98bafdb1a843ad1ee3f10222f43c8b675940922b119c0e0364a219281306098f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Nebraska Presidential Election? | Event: nebraska-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Kansas Presidential Election? | Event: kansas-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | wisconsin-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Wisconsin US Senate Election? | 64,036,842 | 64,036,842 |
cf64b7550c66446cbf310bbfc5a630c84305590c | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xe90fde5bbf32a779f5ad8cd47f890acd9f86b73e34e0f620698122052189a079 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Kansas Presidential Election? | Event: kansas-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Vermont Presidential Election? | Event: vermont-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a De... | yes | 1 | congressional-district-2nd-maine-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Maine's 2nd congressional district? | 64,036,842 | 64,036,842 |
8715443023fb64a009483598375d5f8a95f99dbc | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x6e445ff462dea49c6a279237f69008a06452b18851809806727b2a095d2c4000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Vermont Presidential Election? | Event: vermont-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: texas-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | maine-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Maine US Senate Election? | 64,037,370 | 64,037,370 |
419683eb618f0e9755180508d2068e9f01023c5e | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x27e47fcc55d252f5ffeee42bf8e2d7d6d5a54e4ff7a31e95e5cb057e18b7d0dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: texas-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Utah Presidential Election? | Event: utah-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | maine-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Republican win Maine US Senate Election? | 64,077,864 | 64,077,864 |
ee8656da067bbc2dbaa7fc4d4b2f59b4192f6308 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x9b6a26ae95fbf42976c5bee361e287ef5b5ae6cfc01eb7831efed7ba190b6318 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Utah Presidential Election? | Event: utah-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win New York US Senate Election? | Event: new-york-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Republican... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-san-francisco-mayoral-election | Will Daniel Lurie win the San Francisco Mayoral Election? | 64,090,017 | 64,090,017 |
15bf442898ff32b518307dc2694d81857f29ae3e | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x23df7c359c5641fceed71bd62edda6a4a4997b66566d137a5e639434c8444b2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New York US Senate Election? | Event: new-york-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Vermont Governor Election? | Event: vermont-governor-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Republican w... | no | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 | 64,105,862 | 64,105,862 |
0823d36ce1612f8ade5211bcd9a19847926f54f8 | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0x71636521d7c97d55c349b637390fb4497d4f8ce52529ddb6d9a4ff537069d063 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Vermont Governor Election? | Event: vermont-governor-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Montana Governor Election? | Event: montana-governor-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Republican win... | yes | 1 | how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Will Trump win 7 swing states? | 64,105,862 | 64,105,862 |
7fa2354b584800833e44a9d1aa36f46d697a92ac | 0x05c5aab002faa347cffcab3e557231bb574873e1 | 0xe197344d6f86db4cb7359a191befc93d345495ff573da62c1913992e55e761dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Montana Governor Election? | Event: montana-governor-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Mississippi US Senate Election? | Event: mississippi-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Repu... | no | 1 | how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Will Trump win 6 swing states? | 64,105,862 | 64,105,862 |
b81f3315e23139dcd9aab622c457453734db3551 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x2a3a29b57597777e5d2941c419716b02a7b8c43b5c19c4ac746ae2d9c720cbe1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?
Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | 64,032,226 | 64,032,226 |
ec9274d9a6278a509ae56f8311f50b164fb80663 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x5c834d30860b67ec13fc96aa0c9df25cb478c8994d7663a269ec3cc7ab65d213 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Nice beat Twente?
Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output s... | yes | 1 | europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Will Nice beat Twente? | 64,032,226 | 64,032,226 |
869d80abf92dd3fc224c4f44570b46254867f71b | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x1ed8802c49ce5ee58271a552e8b07675880a1c33ccb037168f5cda253339c99f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Trump nominate Emil B... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-attorney-general | Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attorney General? | 64,312,266 | 64,312,266 |
4410a024fb86e40b3939e684a7a99bdcffd34932 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x2dd776cc5ef76a0eb8ce0b5726362c33cfaa60d9b878991f88b642bd16645da1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-secretary-of-state | Will Trump nominate Mike Waltz for Secretary of State? | 64,312,266 | 64,312,266 |
6537c26ea715cc25dc93e88a25aaf0eba8e2f6e2 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x48a2115ad30089f76547b20c6c55d0291244290e522e9302639df8bd1461c129 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-attorney-general | Will Trump nominate Jeffrey Jensen for Attorney General? | 64,312,266 | 64,312,266 |
f0e8cf58d624925dd7fce7065299df3ccd699b1d | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x53653bfe54ebe6842ee9505f25ed65bdf245b24a260a644bae2d51bd04432792 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-attorney-general | Will Trump nominate John Ratcliffe for Attorney General? | 64,312,266 | 64,312,266 |
66edf7fb080c31398064c2dacb3764db9f8a1f72 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x70332dfc2149fdcd4c031d0440068efd0288d243256363840a7495e96e1fc03a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-attorney-general | Will Trump nominate Will Levi for Attorney General? | 64,312,266 | 64,312,266 |
203d393c522c33e35770f2ef31221e6cf198cac7 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x861a05a1e1e55421209449091907ec895f8badfbef21dc69de37ade0ed26cbb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-secretary-of-state | Will Trump nominate Robert O'Brien for Secretary of State? | 64,312,266 | 64,312,266 |
8d998392f732924793edc5730971195f5f5f16db | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0xa9370ec28f1872eb96ebe74b33203704382dc66e7329ceba304524ff534c6dcf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-secretary-of-state | Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Secretary of State? | 64,312,266 | 64,312,266 |
ac5dfac0ca5ae1f8d805c41172e89f97d4124e63 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0xbc5edc340f1cf273b29f8fc1ccfdb17aa946f05ab14e377b5449ae511d7026af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-attorney-general | Will Trump nominate Jeff Clark for Attorney General? | 64,312,266 | 64,312,266 |
63b718aafb51cada67fcda7e53a31e134fbaeb79 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0xcf7dbeac6d063e2a0ece8ea27bb672598e0ea8fbc5a2c0663df0c4e6c3534f8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-attorney-general | Will Trump nominate Todd Blanche for Attorney General? | 64,312,266 | 64,312,266 |
c47a56708d9daf734bd10a7279e51182bed98f2e | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0xe36d167b8b9f6fee2a2a4eef324bf7701a603f34d8e088f00bfdbc03ee132ded | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-attorney-general | Will Trump nominate Eric Schmitt for Attorney General? | 64,312,266 | 64,312,266 |
fc3baf468adc34ab7e1f3a5fb24d7209fed6921a | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x046f8f9419c187f12db763db8e6c18dc27cca4a49c944504c526adfae3a2a757 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-secretary-of-the-energy | Will Trump nominate Dan Brouillette for Energy Secretary? | 64,392,381 | 64,392,381 |
bd8ac6e152e088314651f5b7d20d2c0b227ae71c | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x537c7f1d5724c50db3a5a48a6a139a40c527cdcff99b6273e1d978a7b885a9eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-secretary-of-the-energy | Will Trump nominate Doug Burgum for Energy Secretary? | 64,392,381 | 64,392,381 |
6969331b64d82c763fb7af6073b30e9988e002a6 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x621a9686b7e78dc98cc2a6bdabf5f315a8edee49359b7e6cf3fd0b603a864c6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-secretary-of-the-energy | Will Trump nominate Paul Dabbar for Energy Secretary? | 64,392,381 | 64,392,381 |
c8d3879bf05f92f6a02de89c2794284f192d7827 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x7c00f8888d6d1711146d321438e1a850c62d2b1fdf2c7c119275f6291cfd9ddf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-secretary-of-the-energy | Will Trump nominate Rick Perry for Energy Secretary? | 64,392,381 | 64,392,381 |
d236d8599567862dd55fa0c1c2f1b14f7afbe7d2 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x0b1fb15cb93e0d3db85cb283460ed8236078250c7d07f7f8f0cda968691fc5e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Will Trump nominate Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary? | 64,675,585 | 64,675,585 |
9db987ec07e69d7af64499f9cc18aecd86c44ff7 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x24c5b2343fe9bbf9c2e68ead9f71ee1930e483aae812805471add00347a86cb1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Will Trump nominate Jay Clayton for Treasury Secretary? | 64,675,585 | 64,675,585 |
7087cfaa0c02861b9be3ebf0fc9c052eb962f831 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x268ada694cb4b1a65f88bf6dedce0c08d5aba09621dbe85d9200ced0cac6226b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | 64,675,585 | 64,675,585 |
4379b20bdba3a8f21346f31949ce54daf75bbdc9 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x27f33ec9a9433a0363086696610683cab7d6faeef195a352f08f2dae88d2b606 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | 64,675,585 | 64,675,585 |
6ad38fc4bf82620236176805aa2adf5cd0b41a5a | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x593ba27e0b0493597a447beeda8d837ad607917ba978b82ca25a2cacbefcd388 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Will Trump nominate Marc Rowan for Treasury Secretary? | 64,675,585 | 64,675,585 |
cd8d1b16dcb8129364790b342d34909376ff5648 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x5b00e0a13b86d356aec00d473653acd9e8ac71e3236bca8049545b57fe51d2c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary? | 64,675,585 | 64,675,585 |
b45d45d428d3f57f51e51d9a92e24eb629254948 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x75f3339b115d3a948712a68736c2e6e7dd2c3835453258b258c4592225386407 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? | 64,675,585 | 64,675,585 |
e013c27aa37f29cc50f4958068305d916d8a813e | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x847609d7ce75ec7f854137878cd2c53dee2b466258bfed7f87628d74c335e548 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Treasury Secretary? | 64,675,585 | 64,675,585 |
3d04d4490afbe6a207893311757069910d94fcca | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0xdd95d7e22fd8c9ef5d61285b4ed31aa84e8fdf35192db24d8e7d8938ed4747dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary? | 64,675,585 | 64,675,585 |
4d5af3eab7e1d8443df07fcf73554a1c7f659dc5 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0xa86916b140698d83988f3cffa80f1b3c94dcb5d3e573281ab74d297dc63436eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-che-2024-11-23 | Will Leicester win on 2024-11-23? | 64,677,890 | 64,677,890 |
30b55c9462ad1a4cca6d2c22dd559b19914b2acc | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0xa892c638fbe758442d015521459f0886c8245311ee25bcb5b3be5391303fa785 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-sou-2024-12-07 | Will Southampton win on 2024-12-07? | 65,231,214 | 65,231,214 |
bde5cafd96c34cf379f8d8f74671896eec9b44b4 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x3189e493d87b09525eced3aaae9bb48a9460cef9aa7e6b1c4ed3c4c2df8ffe6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | 65,638,437 | 65,638,437 |
0c7046be1a4825db66a2362ea801fed59f25c995 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0xaf26a1f6b41e1642b3422d3134e536cbcebd99f4cd989c2722f56ab22449b77f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the November 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.39°C? | 65,638,437 | 65,638,437 |
45717b869b3d1f8ad4424de8b5bb6a2bc7ebfe9a | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0xc0b0c6d7795453a6c2da700496583354384f012b79c53e98bc2d7fa91586348e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the November 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.20°C? | 65,638,437 | 65,638,437 |
cee3461cddbe28226381195f320520b456ac5c6b | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0xc84c3451df32872d1167afe34c2406a6161bad495ec4732b37aee87074b9d06a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attor... | yes | 1 | november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.35-1.39°C? | 65,638,437 | 65,638,437 |
36dc903a61fa390a20a96952afe6de10363489a4 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0xf873b562a57f806b34aa30ecbcf37d61462bbf819e5fa5f2a04fe202bc1bca77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nice beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-nice-vs-twente | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attorney General? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-attorney-general | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Mike Waltz for S... | yes | 1 | november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? | 65,638,437 | 65,638,437 |
2d6c531ef3bd729a0fcc79898406947ff9cb7b90 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0xb685671ec5f12410f48006fad1ec60fa1a1e19f3a5ba09a81ab45b026821252d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attorney General? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-attorney-general | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate Mike Waltz for Secretary of State? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-secretary-of-state | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2024 meeting? | 65,710,043 | 65,710,043 |
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