sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8a422673bfee0f1285a848aaa755deb400e47b38 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x411a946e7ed2f25ab6fa595182110479f9264e68584eeb0a6608a7bfe89c3a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? | 61,998,089 | 62,754,720 |
9293e291b8c3b9f492ee18fdd22cffcc72cfd1f3 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xe7073cbd0a64f1362dc573eefdc6cc5b8af78dee2dc931cf39add79f8d090b00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | north-carolina-governor-election-winner | Will a Democrat win North Carolina Governor Election? | 62,023,594 | 62,023,594 |
f08db76cd7f54577db8ec98aa21256aff501aa24 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xd212c0bb93337257a0bf0c9c1f61ec10acc2144a0e3eaac2f5acb6b6b6b02a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | ucl-atalanta-vs-arsenal-will-atalanta-beat-arsenal | Will Atalanta beat Arsenal? | 62,024,238 | 62,024,486 |
8d731ac6b66aedd54e638e4289807cc8ba4da1a3 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x61cf17bdde72375d7e24d483bf965655c886ce0b3bd640701fdc6f3a0d8eb900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | arizona-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Arizona Presidential Election? | 62,026,679 | 62,026,679 |
c4faa3b459d31c70525a4d73f0d1422d386a1bdd | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x653e5bfb36ce8f0f40153dcc6370216f475040bcf0d90b32ec4e6fda1fe02600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | so-paulo-mayoral-election-2024 | Will Pablo Marçal win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? | 62,028,177 | 62,031,834 |
747d32bef9039ef27a97e42835b7fca3ead56476 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xbe800b03c461489b8ecfbc043c39c35308e6657e67cce68dbb60edc86e68f900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | who-wins-most-votes-in-brandenburg-election | Will AfD win the most votes in the 2024 Brandenburg election? | 62,028,856 | 62,028,856 |
04be43265d9bf18215274b4f49b2dc0000397dae | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x3a2ed21a1a51aa5b5eb9b0581b8acdb3e8725b9cee66b7c95b2b0872f435d000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | wnba-champion | Will the New York Liberty win the 2024 WNBA Finals? | 62,029,579 | 62,029,664 |
7272804860cabd3335904c5f55c194a64337c3c1 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x9d110bc79834c6cd630822f0ca6add74004cae814282f7d3aff9b843c4f63300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | michigan-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? | 62,029,711 | 62,224,253 |
5aae9d71f7d506c16c49e0eda585d1f5cde36f12 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xfbb76f31e1aa58fc11624388dacc86721bb31e7d9ff34c585f53e39f6f2a0800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | alaska-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Alaska Presidential Election? | 62,030,282 | 62,030,297 |
541224862a52c22169405fb36a3c14decc4d4d4a | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x25efecc90ae319c805afa28351384b1abf65e2e3bb4ff988ce17e16808393e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-the-most-seats-austrian-legislative-election | Will ÖVP win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election? | 62,030,301 | 62,386,414 |
c1ca12c5d01ccfb82d75268a2883981b6ebf8426 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xec25db74ece7ad272d9f7a7377a89aa342411c2ba792c553c61da04730a0ba00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | womens-chess-olympiad-2024-winner | Will the United States win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympiad? | 62,031,248 | 62,031,248 |
64ed7a34b0b0df53ad5529d490d104750aa392b8 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xaa6ed42349c5250f9aaaace1d15024ed326cbaa7e752e7c72f3079876511dc00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? | 62,222,850 | 62,222,850 |
d38935cd3af77fc46f063c57086cc3dc6257af15 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x8775b71a8d376fc5d827622bbbfc5fef71bf425a2e9eebf07c0f4b8827b8bd00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | of-republican-senate-seats-after-election | Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election? | 62,228,189 | 62,231,584 |
b59b945faf0e4ac03dc737dabbce27b7f1937cc6 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x05a3cfee393622e16d387da30821cd548ce6b72694af4358ebd00f10a3177900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday | Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 27? | 62,228,228 | 62,302,463 |
21324a641fcc31c5744422c690dc7d33c008d20d | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x3f3ae07223492f5ba2e46adba8c64c98df1995a1002d78f96434611a4b459200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? | 62,279,825 | 62,279,825 |
905d5d00978445aff7f87af81955de4cfef0ab04 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x9c0db17abe5d3219eb085e317569dfa5a9565e6742b6444ee3288c66225c0900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-friday-oct-4 | Will Trump lead in RCP on Oct 4? | 62,279,862 | 62,279,862 |
d4b303ef297a52332744d227fb64bc9178b3208f | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x2359f552082c0ef8e72a69b9592673f6125f3dd7ef898a3705a16f5ec6bcc45c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | caroline-ellison-prison-time | Caroline Ellison sentenced to 1-11 months in prison? | 62,279,871 | 62,279,871 |
4d2709da13963fd453ee2ad3a1101e46b2a8f42b | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x371c529781a8390dea74564c77fc4195521901855c684a04e281d8fcd42c318c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | ucl-atalanta-vs-arsenal-will-atalanta-beat-arsenal | Will Atalanta beat Arsenal? | 62,279,871 | 62,279,871 |
d0744563f397c7a07bb1b239ae10fb74f60ed0d9 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x4851038e86636794071aab894462f3b151a0bd630754c7ffe6e9bbdb43ff156b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | caroline-ellison-prison-time | Caroline Ellison sentenced to 60 or more months in prison? | 62,279,871 | 62,279,871 |
a2f6ac9447136297bd5f896f1915c89e103e5e9c | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x82f725a0cbc65df35be7312b08c9ef4dd8bd46a33be58ecc83fd4ce4b33df17d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | caroline-ellison-prison-time | Caroline Ellison sentenced to 36-47 months in prison? | 62,279,871 | 62,279,871 |
4caa6b9f06e3e61a2547e12105cccac087e3ba28 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xf6475c49ec4cfb145375521944be3164fb34b435ecd5ec72ec52bc803a4957ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | caroline-ellison-prison-time | Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | 62,279,871 | 62,279,871 |
68b31c36f874268f85ccc0329c55b4513ef47ce5 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x8d7029b9b91d2a8939b49bd27dc5f5e618d88c5141628c3c7eaec09b66b1d08b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | caroline-ellison-prison-time | Caroline Ellison sentenced to 24-35 months in prison? | 62,279,872 | 62,279,872 |
930a43cdc91b98e55fe173467fe0d82ebe924ac7 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x253510b086f0c23c1b1a58ace144563775eeac978e2c983d0f68832d619a2100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | 62,302,358 | 62,757,316 |
ede63628cfff715555022921fbca30ca163a0a42 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x5391cb0e8759aab7ae978cedae3dbb6fe4b876f420515ef8221e9f8e9a222c00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | 62,302,384 | 62,302,384 |
69fa7949d310ff293c0ff4b52728bc09e520bdf0 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x5a17bef3df3ed1049a2d955e5a0f60138885ec9a4224495717f8e9550d73b100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Will there be less than 11 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | 62,302,417 | 62,302,417 |
4d25e1d0907cd62e74b2c8c4d15b296b3a1d662d | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x326b1916210fdb6040120e07f6100d9d62bde4c4aafbadf208028e745464a800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rat... | no | 1 | how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 | Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | 62,302,432 | 62,302,432 |
a88cf1ef77a198c27db04c8e7d9d295c9949c10b | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xc8d7e7aab1c016645a21786b5d77f68f1d4c49d65e10159fe8738630c44c7f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mancheste... | no | 1 | virginia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | 62,305,425 | 62,391,511 |
0301f7dde02e8757fa9fad58eb97566d0de87d31 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x2d01c7f04a70b5197979c00e10d328424035f3ad0e201ce67d31da55749311d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | helene-landfall-at-what-category | Will Helene make landfall at category 4 or stronger? | 62,342,130 | 62,342,130 |
5dc08f61c3e25dde75a187392a33ecb7db57aaef | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x6a179e313f047d60b33a933a42666c2a13bf760af0bee73239e870757a715ed7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win La Liga? | Event: la-liga-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? | Ev... | no | 1 | helene-landfall-at-what-category | Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | 62,342,130 | 62,342,130 |
43b1c5103e535d6b1eea2fdfe30538e9b583f8ff | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x6b17acd2f5f750e2a27bfad4e9324648673edd34e761257a88ca8e8cc693d95d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win La Liga? | Event: la-liga-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Democrat win North Carolina Governor ... | no | 1 | helene-landfall-at-what-category | Will Helene make landfall at category 3? | 62,342,130 | 62,342,130 |
1095333739ef9e7d5d8af2eed56f047324d964c2 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x6f58285ccb345d90778644179f3d9e51445ea4bb4633851f83d72cd082610ba1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win North Carolina Governor Election? | Event: north-carolina-governor-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | helene-landfall-at-what-category | Will Helene make landfall at category 1 or weaker? | 62,342,130 | 62,342,130 |
a25f9211e6ed2fe8dbbcc6fe9b7cd92fdcb9f33c | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x2ba79dd91ec3176fa2366f683408009a6d7d35258eb144dbe4408b0fb1e7a800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win North Carolina Governor Election? | Event: north-carolina-governor-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-atalanta-vs-arsenal-will-atalanta-beat-arsenal | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Democra... | no | 1 | texas-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Texas US Senate Election? | 62,342,158 | 62,342,158 |
0393def8a58408fbcf746eb79038ed76658ae2d6 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xebbf621279b1c7c8b341cf058d3e58bcb97a0686d836e58da792ffc7edec5c00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-atalanta-vs-arsenal-will-atalanta-beat-arsenal | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona Presidential Election? | Event: arizona-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Pablo Marçal wi... | no | 1 | balance-of-power-2024-election | 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D House | 62,342,173 | 62,753,263 |
e16fda53b954a247d757a53732da9a53cfd1e3fc | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xd878eef8bdfa9a6d25552bd137d64c0b5ce81a56db1f38ea1e9d4864681c8600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona Presidential Election? | Event: arizona-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pablo Marçal win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? | Event: so-paulo-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AfD ... | no | 1 | september-2024-temperature-increase-c | September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C? | 62,342,196 | 62,424,497 |
41c01faf179adc89a4946552c845d9bf0f96be11 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x68e90eb5c8878a9d2c32b2a409c4c2730df4af32c2b586a15adbe14ca3910000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pablo Marçal win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? | Event: so-paulo-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AfD win the most votes in the 2024 Brandenburg election? | Event: who-wins-most-votes-in-brandenburg-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | f1-2024-season-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? | 62,342,209 | 62,342,209 |
bf7d82c319b576034b0e4a25923e81bbb26ead47 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xba4c8e3f119cd4e4dbd058b80b88e19c35e60b94f4672836c4eac91626788900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AfD win the most votes in the 2024 Brandenburg election? | Event: who-wins-most-votes-in-brandenburg-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Liberty win the 2024 WNBA Finals? | Event: wnba-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Democrat... | no | 1 | florida-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Florida US Senate Election? | 62,386,430 | 62,386,430 |
20e5925bcf5209261425eb649b11a43e9ed47782 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xba70443feeb282afb4eb0aa05f51a71abf1f49d0dcc2f8410812e4ce1f6e9d00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the New York Liberty win the 2024 WNBA Finals? | Event: wnba-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Democrat win Alaska Pres... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-september | US adds less than 100k jobs in September? | 62,391,474 | 62,391,474 |
6e35b047d06e8ba8fe0c8bb77c12b0c3c2922c19 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x96af200c5aaf71706287f8b7243c17f2275037b89e7e07c83f34fef96f69a500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Alaska Presidential Election? | Event: alaska-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ÖVP wi... | no | 1 | epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Will Manchester United beat Tottenham? | 62,423,081 | 62,423,081 |
d220c25c9343ef968929667c721f7137c4e4a843 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x37088c9b2349c07fab4a24fd9d95aabc544b3b49dcd417f146fdc4b90d399d00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Alaska Presidential Election? | Event: alaska-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ÖVP win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-austrian-legislative-election | Choice: no... | no | 1 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | Manchester City wins the Premier League? | 62,423,228 | 62,423,228 |
760b6d6a46275619f93b9f638a6add4a898bd4d6 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x4456a4eba9377c5cc2db5ab69dc26d02a84299a3705cb0797497d1c6f8a81c00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ÖVP win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-austrian-legislative-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the United States win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympiad? | Event: womens-chess-olympiad-2024-winner | Ch... | no | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ | 62,423,246 | 62,423,246 |
5846d0f3a59394112d7edc453746c7c7e0387fdd | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x367be8313ab188e17a50370d037de4555f076e3ed988a3ca1701746c5d378300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the United States win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympiad? | Event: womens-chess-olympiad-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Republicans have 49 or fewer sea... | no | 1 | nevada-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Nevada Presidential Election? | 62,440,996 | 62,440,996 |
ff63b72b645a73f3f52e5ddbef85e24afa985228 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x034c9d5149eca9faec85f29b37571c88978f106815ea3fb29bc3df75fa71d0b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election? | Event: of-republican-senate-seats-after-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP ... | no | 1 | epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Will Manchester United beat Tottenham? | 62,546,192 | 62,546,192 |
ae321952f4778dbe2be5d1ea0025d3a2d29caa05 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x20fc792e2efdac3025f97b93231a28d4beb93b08ea791fb2f7f8cebf99cae4ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election? | Event: of-republican-senate-seats-after-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 27? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 0.570588 | the-wild-robot-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'The Wild Robot' gross more than $38m opening weekend? | 62,546,192 | 62,546,192 |
c37c4883c36a867f558425d54af930e7114d7ab3 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x3ad17a6efe6c1286ec37e8502b2e644fa02f9495305f683d1a2155ab531c2484 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 27? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Oct 4? | ... | no | 1 | the-wild-robot-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'The Wild Robot' gross less than $24m opening weekend? | 62,546,192 | 62,546,192 |
6a683a6e621f77c9d1cd875033b8c580cebf8e53 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x4117da4ddd04127786bd2ab600f572798e42484cabfb1448ba3e0ec1305d3eb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Oct 4? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-friday-oct-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Caroline Ellison sentenced to 1-11 m... | no | 0.674037 | the-wild-robot-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'The Wild Robot' gross between $31m and $38m opening weekend? | 62,546,192 | 62,546,192 |
d41523fb65a39d5212400607ee839e5c00918ddd | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x50034e34d3573112e561ffd9ff0c314ce91efe6e087ff9ac63a074252d47394d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Oct 4? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-friday-oct-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison sentenced to 1-11 months in prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta beat Arsenal? ... | no | 1 | epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Will Ipswich Town vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? | 62,546,192 | 62,546,192 |
70e8fd2857401af31873385ecba43af925d55faa | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x606b3a3b8fdb83e552e9506d29153fb415b41dc747bb8ab23f50572c30a67a6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Caroline Ellison sentenced to 1-11 months in prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-atalanta-vs-arsenal-will-atalanta-beat-arsenal | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Caroline Ellison sentenced... | no | 1 | the-wild-robot-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'The Wild Robot' gross between $24m and $31m opening weekend? | 62,546,192 | 62,546,192 |
d2ffc46d331be603c839197cb4adf352ea33377f | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x6e62c6a8abf7627ea36631afb0f7b0d3eb5bfc9167e0ade2db8c889e91e06dfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-atalanta-vs-arsenal-will-atalanta-beat-arsenal | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison sentenced to 60 or more months in prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Caroline Ellison sen... | no | 1 | ethereum-all-time-high-wen | Ethereum all time high in Q3 2024? | 62,546,192 | 62,546,192 |
f6da651deb3250fa20b4aa959f58e58a68342aa9 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x3aa708e6a0bf1be624aad574f7461fc8be0c60a51e85acdb0dfdba4141a6f289 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Caroline Ellison sentenced to 60 or more months in prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison sentenced to 36-47 months in prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Caroline Ellison... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday | Will Kamala lead in RCP by 2-2.4 on Sept 27? | 62,546,193 | 62,546,193 |
98a45fa644ad98757edeeb21cb81442cbbff53c7 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x0c94288b8c9d90c9bb9ed41b3ec52246287c6a69bdb4ea203b9136b4a5179461 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Caroline Ellison sentenced to 36-47 months in prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Caroline Ellison sentenced to 24-... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-september | US adds between 150k and 200k jobs in September? | 62,749,342 | 62,749,342 |
93bb4e13c65bee9ce9281f69f7d320f8b67ca10c | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x20232268d23a1c28b7356fa38498c68fbb02fdc8959cc8dc6990a66c66439efe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison sentenced to 24-35 months in prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania ... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-september | US adds less than 100k jobs in September? | 62,749,342 | 62,749,342 |
64de31c5795c851cdd4dcebc731257df52a387bc | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x8b90faac71a04484affc550e8dbea7932646d7f90b4a4de7f1d7f676b9670bbc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Caroline Ellison sentenced to 24-35 months in prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-september | US adds between 100k and 150k jobs in September? | 62,749,342 | 62,749,342 |
d8f3e0f7b4f9b2391df2a3a04958477c27e8882a | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xa7a9316a2a86e4c1e2cce4449dda5b548ed00ed8ac2a990ce345227601708094 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will th... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-september | US adds ore than 250k jobs in September? | 62,749,342 | 62,749,342 |
030f15c0b817b0e4e9d96fdf5b65439354aab63c | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xb49048083ea92ebf7a9a798f553ccde94ca107acd996dc5dfabc6cc9921055e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be less than 11 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-september | US adds between 200k and 250k jobs in September? | 62,749,342 | 62,749,342 |
1fa9c2a53af90efa7218f05c08a45e1d0561eb54 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x4a8d2b3150397b29ec69aca418c3e73a712afe25d516d83d25205552d5306300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be less than 11 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-durin... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi? | 62,750,313 | 62,757,346 |
267964d4924233656039445d5bdfab3bc10b9d5d | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x27a926dfb9aca1aee19f968414745b90ecbaf10c44313c639d69bda6b9b3cd00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choic... | no | 1 | us-election-tipping-point-state | Will Pennsylvania be the tipping point state? | 62,750,340 | 62,750,340 |
b33fac17e5f391b2cbe65b93f61aa99cd0b905a9 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x1357a67d44db323fc057cb2cb3a3a36656ca791f764b6a7d3f5b2721fd309430 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 4 or stronger? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Helene... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Vili Lehdonvirta as Satoshi? | 63,047,322 | 63,047,322 |
c0fdb1aff5a07585ecf2b7b1c7a718800bee7b81 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x14f3c691eb70657c6943de44fc45640e93baf393c40299fb1386693a0a77f3f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 4 or stronger? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Helene make landfall a... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi? | 63,047,322 | 63,047,322 |
def6cb2d0c2da85579b905a54afa22ce2d0648d5 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x1ea850592b5a0551fe8d160c5b83e50daaaf0dfea9ece3c7b56447de327ebe90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 3? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 1... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi? | 63,047,322 | 63,047,322 |
132809e823a39af00fbc01f778ce77f128fe1944 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x39af89511ebd36a29d23ea83f128d5141fb21c9b6917c6e8a4cbe57fdce15b1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 3? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 1 or weaker? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Democrat win Texas US ... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? | 63,047,322 | 63,047,322 |
3089fc126f316932fe71c77f9e2b6a9007299b9a | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x53b4da15104f1869b7648857f484eaa19049c2dbb9203bbe911aa29883da2fc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 1 or weaker? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Texas US Senate Election? | Event: texas-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: 2024 Balance of Power: D ... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi? | 63,047,322 | 63,047,322 |
7f5b771b5dc70c4bc91ecac7edf811ce5d8ffebd | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x5c3b1b63bc4dffae0de2033eadbf6315ee30511cb5c3ce02db550dc50157c012 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Texas US Senate Election? | Event: texas-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D House | Event: balance-of-power-2024-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: September temperature increas... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi? | 63,047,322 | 63,047,322 |
fec6493c08a70c5cca3be610859be819a6d26e91 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x69fe789035024528095ed46c8e4cf18d3cfbfdb22109c0c223c4502c99242d97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D House | Event: balance-of-power-2024-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C? | Event: september-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Max Verstapp... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi? | 63,047,322 | 63,047,322 |
51dcce437a59ca436017709a69cfa78c1d04ba4f | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xa8eb864b0805f28c627f7f22a94a339d93db4f799eedd906261c486887dfbe8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C? | Event: september-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? | Event: f1-2024-season-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Democrat win Florida US ... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Wood as Satoshi? | 63,047,322 | 63,047,322 |
e848fa2c2130996312fc0ae146304c0f9333df4b | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xb2d62fcadf72190f8bcb280be71dae88ea83c9c045b084aedcc99bcc9c1c3838 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? | Event: f1-2024-season-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Florida US Senate Election? | Event: florida-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: US adds less than 100k jobs in Septembe... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Andresen as Satoshi? | 63,047,322 | 63,047,322 |
5e842bb3b930322ebc1fb08e553cc6af6c1e76f9 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xb43e3086ab0f62a6fb4718494172d3a94a63244f1b10746dcb76f40e306cbc0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Florida US Senate Election? | Event: florida-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: US adds less than 100k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat To... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi? | 63,047,322 | 63,047,322 |
c31dd7f063a03719b8e1d83593eed4e7dc430be7 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x00dfa51cfbf1566276ef1e8d607d6ad4788d49c71d1d2383ed2500aa82c15539 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US adds less than 100k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United beat Tottenham? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Manchester City wins the Premier Leagu... | yes | 1 | eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) 6-7b one week after launch? | 63,047,323 | 63,047,323 |
19f8df6f1d3645c0d6dbe97cd219fad1f3803644 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x1a561957f609d5ba7be26ab4fed55ac95a84ac4e900c6fd4bec28c1b72d83ba5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United beat Tottenham? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Manchester City wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Dorian Nakamoto as Satoshi? | 63,047,323 | 63,047,323 |
93e2cc8d8631301debfe42d9872bc983ef5a2912 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x36486ce8c3fa43e8f3c3c030fb1e9dd90d25304acedb008f5663ddcd528b9565 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Manchester City wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi? | 63,047,323 | 63,047,323 |
f6a7bf9e68f7c9d9bed6ee8bb2ca7540c61d4f52 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x6d283e7709d0b7c7bbd499585e027e45118417bd0e3e2670912a03ae0ff3de90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Nevada Presidential Election? | Event: nevada-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi? | 63,047,323 | 63,047,323 |
e893dca9acc5f503404bce326ec2fd575b34c37b | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x8cfd87a6abfa23831c5221bf9e5d53eeb6d231c6340b480af6383e5f30fbe478 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Nevada Presidential Election? | Event: nevada-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United beat Tottenham? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'The Wild Robot' gross... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-4-11 | Will Trump tweet 15-19 times October 4-11? | 63,047,323 | 63,047,323 |
2741daada5729f05dc893e6266c76e31dc889ef8 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xbd2cda8debc8a7725f5da591a6e66f662cf6481470d883576723efebd14c3697 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United beat Tottenham? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'The Wild Robot' gross more than $38m opening weekend? | Event: the-wild-robot-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5705882352941176
3. Questi... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? | 63,047,323 | 63,047,323 |
dc4d5de5e5c499b84f7f5abfc7ed2281616cabc9 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xd9662074d7926b124f8e24d757ed50064a2f5f81d2ba4b6747ef352af33d87d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'The Wild Robot' gross more than $38m opening weekend? | Event: the-wild-robot-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5705882352941176
2. Question: Will 'The Wild Robot' gross less than $24m opening weekend? | Event: the-wild-robot-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi? | 63,047,323 | 63,047,323 |
b618eeeff94cfee9ae3fc4787ff7ca6297efe0ea | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xe5a8773d3048edf1c8d87ee1181a988d7045bb78e7d9df6ef2d50a99909c6435 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'The Wild Robot' gross less than $24m opening weekend? | Event: the-wild-robot-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'The Wild Robot' gross between $31m and $38m opening weekend? | Event: the-wild-robot-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Jed McCaleb as Satoshi? | 63,047,323 | 63,047,323 |
0cfcda98a1e8e5c6fef3f5da04c836842158e82a | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x3d2f7653c5a4fc6ba7d4b019c008e95aa48d7d9c80496b1ed66ed6026eaf78cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'The Wild Robot' gross between $31m and $38m opening weekend? | Event: the-wild-robot-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6740366392924826
2. Question: Will Ipswich Town vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$5b one week after launch? | 63,047,324 | 63,047,324 |
fed67e87030ebe8b5ba7e330fbae5a146a0d4e3e | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x45f56ddbd65f2d6203fdacbc827a6dbd61f2ba6f7530d6792c18a8f7c3e22c86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ipswich Town vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'The Wild Robot' gross between $24m and $31m opening weekend? | Event: the-wild-robot-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | 63,637,787 | 63,637,787 |
6a69364df4f2578b0afe4ea6079e8c9e976dd523 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x657d0915552c972ce20338785283cd3d1bb058218d6acddd7f0a6b8fc52dc9d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'The Wild Robot' gross between $24m and $31m opening weekend? | Event: the-wild-robot-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum all time high in Q3 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala lead... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Nico Williams win the Ballon d’Or? | 63,637,787 | 63,637,787 |
8ed1d2bb85a9edbaaa5d555277bb93964f6d3a16 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x67e946751c16efcb5d14f463fceb2816dbc53884c723661f15d336c97ce55da8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in Q3 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 2-2.4 on Sept 27? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: US adds between 150k and 200k jobs in... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-election | Will the Conservatives win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | 63,637,787 | 63,637,787 |
089df14eaa2f7c8f951b163d2d3ed4d0e2648961 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x6fd751ba3f83e2db3174510d95396f41bcb38e23733c0a704c8e066338b8b0da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 2-2.4 on Sept 27? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: US adds between 150k and 200k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: US adds less than... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Jude Bellingham win the Ballon d’Or? | 63,637,787 | 63,637,787 |
17105d8afeabfebc9f4ec4ec791786e889dc2bd6 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x95a71c4f8e508de86cd3a4a5d790385c04c73ee28e603e0852645d6144901ac6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US adds between 150k and 200k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: US adds less than 100k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: US adds between 100k and 150k ... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? | 63,637,787 | 63,637,787 |
688ef17e318fcb9a4e3d79125236f95272e3824f | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x9b02d64879d44fa91b0026d431c131f6ea8798e1cf94e2421e7402975abd0777 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US adds less than 100k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: US adds between 100k and 150k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: US adds ore than 250k jobs in ... | no | 1 | number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Will there be between 11 and 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | 63,637,787 | 63,637,787 |
fc12cb1876e39dfb5612a65997909640badf475a | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xa67333de9efa77277fd6c80375e99611a40715bd614f7b771843a18d93cb07bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US adds between 100k and 150k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: US adds ore than 250k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: US adds between 200k and 250k j... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Lamine Yamal win the Ballon d’Or? | 63,637,787 | 63,637,787 |
dc424b1efc202125f80d43d275a12e6aa61601a6 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xf2b508f1d31da8b9d7b02ab3b9bd9cdd6df3ccab156390335bc641fb8bc6b869 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US adds ore than 250k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: US adds between 200k and 250k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the HBO documentary identi... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will another player win the Ballon d'Or? | 63,637,787 | 63,637,787 |
1f7e26a583c73761a3a0acdc5ae6fc9696c582cf | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x063077dfaacebe2cf14a9289911741efb1f45299bcab69752a9ffb63e3f45210 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US adds between 200k and 250k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Penn... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Dani Carvajal win the Ballon d’Or? | 63,637,789 | 63,637,789 |
3c4b73d98272ef91f57b9d95d5d46141dfd63627 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x304d51387ba144ce767972b037a1fcdefd67010e0d6fbd5d5c685298ff1b4c6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the tipping point state? | Event: us-election-tipping-point-state | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the HBO ... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Harry Kane win the Ballon d’Or? | 63,637,789 | 63,637,789 |
0032c9b1912784f1db33774f4d65807d30ca1e4c | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x65b1267c09dec2d42289c67029c1baa7f4745d78ee35f916fc6ce953bf4e8263 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the tipping point state? | Event: us-election-tipping-point-state | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Vili Lehdonvirta as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Kylian Mbappe win the Ballon d’Or? | 63,637,789 | 63,637,789 |
b1cbb4058fdebb7f225d88878caae90ffe80076c | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x8e09b134cfde5b265065112b996d7dc983acdd22eccd005f350c40c964a42cd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Vili Lehdonvirta as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | f1-2024-season-winner | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2024 F1 season? | 63,637,789 | 63,637,789 |
25fc9812cf1408043f42b6bc28224b76cf159172 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xadc5b66649ae1804da1d1ca2fc7bae8c84ee11261f03a19a057b1b097a17d652 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Lionel Messi win the Ballon d’Or? | 63,637,789 | 63,637,789 |
92a014dfd77d6fb2d7695d414878b94973e65423 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xbb8a26b72efb465ee4f3e21651c5984bd7cc7664af09becb349a6c242e36281d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Phil Foden win the Ballon d’Or? | 63,637,789 | 63,637,789 |
9610e43ca1d8a71cf336ac645361660984aa6fad | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xbc22ac8122208f8bb6bc8ae52e9ab82cffdeb407f76496a0178b123791f4fb4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | f1-2024-season-winner | Will Carlos Sainz win the 2024 F1 season? | 63,637,789 | 63,637,789 |
cdcb880db5553575cfb2e16c4901f8fb5fc0be9c | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xf2e394a1de9526e577c37f69ce0a45046e1a907d2dc61f2313bb019ed865215b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Erling Haaland win the Ballon d’Or? | 63,637,789 | 63,637,789 |
6293e0cd7b25f7b5ed179a19d778e1cef6d791b9 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x2bd18efe785cf24002cfa38a37413739062aa370499b3a5831d202e64596c426 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or? | 63,637,792 | 63,637,792 |
de88619cd4b8cc587e8a3ce5743b3a85ef3120ec | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xdc38b041dac04feb5136d909c1b5e4912f538e851cd14eac48d2af5f95a07e6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Wood as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Will there be more than 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | 63,637,792 | 63,637,792 |
466769f5e03464e93bb4ef415fb558bbe23d1b92 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x1fc1e5595adab4d8160b2fe72cfed61131e3d5e61b5c334160d1729d7380ab16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Wood as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Andresen as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting? | 66,426,492 | 66,426,492 |
5d29304d1018694a5743708b2c03b4c9b60f2b54 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x2a3a29b57597777e5d2941c419716b02a7b8c43b5c19c4ac746ae2d9c720cbe1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Andresen as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | 66,426,492 | 66,426,492 |
0659775b30f8764c6f3762112a29a1243b99c325 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x57dc89d2f5803961a1c72add5969c2887f9591821d05421f2819fa17b664dd59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) 6-7b one week after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | ohio-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election? | 66,426,492 | 66,426,492 |
d9094ea1dc275e41eec63c6fdd3c93fed2f0b7a2 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x61962c3f51c9c2e4f3885da88b70d3378a822830e42df02a19c7b035737515bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) 6-7b one week after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Dorian Nakamoto as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Will the FED change rates to another level after Nov meeting? | 66,426,492 | 66,426,492 |
e14dc2503b060638eb05201ebd068011b9be4006 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xa11a9c66032cbe8c607bf1b21591f65dfee9d5eb65d73cc8ad5009c1f9826fa3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Dorian Nakamoto as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | 66,426,492 | 66,426,492 |
59e049553c8dd27118f3a451097010edbb009b82 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xab0132a0b89e43d95c2643ac835877c757849e9a64ebac3c9f0c4696db41a288 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Will a 3rd party candidate win the popular vote or the Presidency? | 66,426,492 | 66,426,492 |
89d5e7c8654e04bae06486efdd5a8c9691649256 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xb09684e11fb40f40cfb2fec4a8e08fe2b021a82b0803756a90f04e1364efa94f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 15-19 times October 4-11? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-4-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the HBO doc... | no | 1 | ethereum-all-time-high-wen | Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? | 66,426,492 | 66,426,492 |
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