sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
cfa053a0dcde7f1e1a3c7bd4df82ef47570f69e7 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xc53c00d3ed7df96cb528e049ca2d8a6056b620a82bfffd3ad58d35c5f92c02d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 15-19 times October 4-11? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-4-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the HBO docum... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | 66,426,492 | 66,426,492 |
52d06950b0651c7ecf4c602fd2875ce009b5bde3 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xf4640cd41c414f694cd33e049e0c58092eea15bb7e463af0124695e46442742d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | balance-of-power-2024-election | 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D House | 66,426,492 | 66,426,492 |
25549d44466fe7ace21eb5eb7f47b19845799af3 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xfcb031253ecf0d6b9f75e3630dee3033ab6c8ee9cce0a3e47285b0d15d717b32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Jed McCaleb as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104 | 66,426,492 | 66,426,492 |
dcd005c0c9e398596505e22a5d30dc0ed7309860 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x136e99098f7d4087b4c5775d9f9a512de67e50bda37e88fa86b05a226c390182 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Jed McCaleb as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$5b one week after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presidency? | 66,426,495 | 66,426,495 |
af16fb52a371178f279df54a4a4a69da6c63cfda | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x1f67d768903aec8a640b4777c1695e29215b435eb892eb259f3392142f32069f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$5b one week after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nico Williams win the ... | no | 1 | next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | James Cleverly next Conservative party leader? | 66,426,495 | 66,426,495 |
7927cfc37f4b5cb50f22042088f5dcdbc1cd3b1a | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x2151f3bb327741f78fb775e5b5e94c6d0aa3293e35faf1d59cb71fc6826b4d13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nico Williams win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Conservatives win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia gen... | no | 1 | next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Jeremy Hunt next Conservative party leader? | 66,426,495 | 66,426,495 |
59f7bfeaad2a9da0a07abb07db74a9b9b96092fe | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x4742343186280954a67cf912f7bc9d2dd0fe38121df58b5c9306ad4b17a5ef7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nico Williams win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Conservatives win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-election | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 1 | next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Robert Jenrick next Conservative party leader? | 66,426,495 | 66,426,495 |
bef1d1cfb89f6138bc7c83abbbbe1f3d7ef5bc0d | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x7f16ad3e07246cee944535f1b722088f50a64db613fec9e4ab69844a5f31d3af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Conservatives win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jude Bellingham win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 1 | next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Tom Tugendhat next Conservative party leader? | 66,426,495 | 66,426,495 |
0f90e6c048a93fa647013f55b7a89d66509dc4f4 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xb482f7d8d69170b4cfc60a2e0a1db75027f6b264898873fe8be51e408f28fbf1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jude Bellingham win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there be between 11 and 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane ... | no | 1 | next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Priti Patel next Conservative party leader? | 66,426,495 | 66,426,495 |
459bb03207800c35c34c36ad790e56ef9fe3097e | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xc6ec0ec408dbc30a17be606b95d2c81c526fc7490a636eb44970bf77fbe3d6ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be between 11 and 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Suella Braverman next Conservative party leader? | 66,426,495 | 66,426,495 |
a496e5ca3dd140e01b18441d5af4f4148712c915 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xca00534dbf265f529c599ab7b6f6ab47846be698cb505659cf86e041feaeef84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be between 11 and 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lamine Yamal win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | David Cameron next Conservative party leader? | 66,426,495 | 66,426,495 |
de1bca8a65e49b601fccd206609ac68a95a181cc | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xfcfdbdff911d7cc90d6942d8493b378a9b8997f2a9698208d9d1429f683f622b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lamine Yamal win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another player win the Ballon d'Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dani Carvajal win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Ch... | no | 1 | next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Nigel Farage next Conservative party leader? | 66,426,495 | 66,426,495 |
d0ae6aeb1d811256c821b04019fe4ba6eaf76351 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x039f90b41b21e7d985187110300279d4b487e813967d611467b78853b5262490 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another player win the Ballon d'Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dani Carvajal win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Harry Kane win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choi... | no | 1 | next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Will someone else be the next Conservative party leader? | 66,426,496 | 66,426,496 |
84eb4008fe27c4d0414fd11e92a4dde5d9b55847 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x143f9a2f370ce837fb9e09318b21f09640670cb9597267bab66b3dc8c47d8fb2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dani Carvajal win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Harry Kane win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kylian Mbappe win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choic... | no | 1 | fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Will Jordan Love be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | 66,426,496 | 66,426,496 |
65df884749ca01ee68b1f447c3633c85989f746e | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x2d7c2c65ff4fc656027010fbcf8474e95947be92b83d3993884f7f8ccc3d1b73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kylian Mbappe win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2024 F1 season? | Event: f1-2024-season-winner... | no | 1 | fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Will Kyler Murray be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | 66,426,496 | 66,426,496 |
66fab35bbe91af7eacd055111408a4414a278435 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x4cb28ad472d1ed9a271e808aa7687b3dcf651ce27ffd1aeef9567aee805f7878 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kylian Mbappe win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2024 F1 season? | Event: f1-2024-season-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lionel Messi win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winn... | no | 1 | fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Will Joe Burrow be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | 66,426,496 | 66,426,496 |
6b457387789f0bacd471111e03777f04005c6060 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x4cb66d455cf85a6bcabcd3f1f39474463c50731b93fa9e56cc77f1ae5f5e9afa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2024 F1 season? | Event: f1-2024-season-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lionel Messi win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Phil Foden win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner ... | no | 1 | fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Will Caleb Williams be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | 66,426,496 | 66,426,496 |
c4c5e0637e717e15e0271925a2d945578878dc8c | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x72ec3b915253a6634fd68a6cfdfc15b609f692a72acd1dc2e8ab3061248d7fd8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lionel Messi win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Phil Foden win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the 2024 F1 season? | Event: f1-2024-season-winner | ... | no | 1 | fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Will Dak Prescott be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | 66,426,496 | 66,426,496 |
1e99c4497bc189070d6f3635c143bc71f4e11db5 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x97503dabdc3332a6e13e299338a23d8afad810e7bef32f92c0c064d01a212d31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Phil Foden win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the 2024 F1 season? | Event: f1-2024-season-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Erling Haaland win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner ... | no | 1 | fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Will C.J. Stroud be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | 66,426,496 | 66,426,496 |
e4b5256d1fdf0ebcd5b3974391d2ed5e4b66cb70 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xa405336b05bc3d7459f6fbb9a334865842a9c2b9a50c0a6abaf61621b9d828d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the 2024 F1 season? | Event: f1-2024-season-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Erling Haaland win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Cho... | no | 1 | fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Will Josh Allen be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | 66,426,496 | 66,426,496 |
5ff5d4c0cca3a1036754616367b99185ed114da2 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xbf30a082e158b1695a7caa104eddcc84f3019a588f6269e118b71379732b03c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Erling Haaland win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there be more than 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Ev... | no | 1 | fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Will Anthony Richardson be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | 66,426,496 | 66,426,496 |
078f3ec418a68c5f949ba1408f5fc5e1a3ed2396 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x1070c27e30447364ed6602778729203d29aaa8860cb0a24779eb3a26f68b245f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed inc... | no | 1 | how-many-fed-rate-cuts-this-year | Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024? | 66,426,498 | 66,426,498 |
3332996c38cd1210d718547f4f59d75a900baf0b | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x13d3e3531ecc4d6096ffe53c9a34f73ea56ed9b4404f87366e708d3d3a7be699 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be more than 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024... | no | 1 | how-many-fed-rate-cuts-this-year | Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024? | 66,426,498 | 66,426,498 |
075cc10e35314a56aed3413ee55b6d91d3d55502 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x260fd9d6b10746909a26c2af7a68b409f757c95a07dc57ddd480774a36c8399b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 0.911281 | how-many-fed-rate-cuts-this-year | Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024? | 66,426,498 | 66,426,498 |
41b05c0020b6101730d50c2bb0872226c87674cd | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x28f66bed374181b08fa7b7eead51d69a4a1af868f8e7ff6944c649822d76aa03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election? | Event: ohio-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the FED c... | no | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 5-14 | 66,426,498 | 66,426,498 |
b97b24305d9d6cbb781ad9c6d250eca9c8e5818c | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x3a5a0889ac67e4b72ef56bd38002e5a62614308ac5c823310bdf1e79234b9939 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election? | Event: ohio-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the FED change rates to another level after Nov meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases... | no | 1 | f1-2024-season-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2024 F1 season? | 66,426,498 | 66,426,498 |
7a68c05455b778b3ed2efe81e080b974423f83f5 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x42e7fa3bd683a276dae0292f0ab910ac18eb76ce7cf014ec9203f6539768735a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the FED change rates to another level after Nov meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | how-many-fed-rate-cuts-this-year | Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024? | 66,426,498 | 66,426,498 |
5e10d51d15ef1837af7c3ecae501c2755501118a | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x475e0fd32b211c0cfe6755638efceba2373d01a7224c7750f77f978db104f639 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a 3rd party candidate win the popular vote or the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154 | 66,426,498 | 66,426,498 |
439f25c517bdb7097422a10b2d3add7e543e506a | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x4db36ca404f1e31c4f120f2a59148553542eaba471ca899a089cdd4fef06668f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a 3rd party candidate win the popular vote or the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Democrat w... | no | 1 | fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Will another player be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | 66,426,498 | 66,426,498 |
2992d9b8e05eb3d3f5a13191a78528ee6298caae | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x5fc1aefc6f85413df47d20cc267ca62b1290f1eccde72e8e102ecb34ad29f211 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: 2024 Balan... | no | 1 | fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Will Jalen Hurts be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | 66,426,498 | 66,426,498 |
1a4b85a1b034bcee2193fbceeb380abd4698d722 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x768eb43d1b7a745e0df1bb6050ab54aa3975fbbde6e23f4aa04cb527f5ffed2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D House | Event: balance-of-power-2024-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | no | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 1-4 | 66,426,498 | 66,426,498 |
055a1d018a5654c8fe52ebb69e8c90da86f672a2 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x90d789157d980de1ca67489122f9d7892a83da4d5185ee16222aff1204914596 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D House | Event: balance-of-power-2024-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | f1-2024-season-winner | Will another driver win the 2024 F1 season? | 66,426,498 | 66,426,498 |
6790cf3ea14ff157ec597d1f744874de3ebd70b9 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xa059663a859bac52841660e1fc2ed3fc247f04f549e3fb306c531527a76514ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular... | no | 1 | arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Will a candidate from another party win Arizona US Senate Election? | 66,426,498 | 66,426,498 |
82d93d650db753931970a82202f54f2091b7819d | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xa47e90f1232464539a75336de9fa41856285bc2dd5250ee509084ee90cf2d26e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: James Cleverly next Conservative party leader? | Event: next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 1 | when-will-satoshis-identity-be-proven | Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be proven in Q4 2024? | 66,426,498 | 66,426,498 |
35084aa65f59ed2a0bd88260e61766578c49e751 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xa8f9da1409ba89bfa4a40dbd3bced4a65dfb3090e3c5c7cf80a56964e5eeb7e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: James Cleverly next Conservative party leader? | Event: next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Jeremy Hunt next Conservative party leader? | Event: next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Robert Jenrick next Cons... | no | 1 | f1-2024-season-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2024 F1 season? | 66,426,498 | 66,426,498 |
a0cd7328c922309b83b0617c7a6cf6e7c9a9b4df | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xac7162f96876ea602d984de6f9800b8a4b8a45897e798a7630d9e004ae5b9a0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jeremy Hunt next Conservative party leader? | Event: next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Robert Jenrick next Conservative party leader? | Event: next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Tom Tugendhat next Conse... | no | 1 | arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election? | 66,426,498 | 66,426,498 |
51f2d2197ae855c2e37990540dc3819e61face3e | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xba8ded3f29006bb62e05590ebe5e04dc24e129e5c9d01e66e2943def1f780806 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Robert Jenrick next Conservative party leader? | Event: next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Tom Tugendhat next Conservative party leader? | Event: next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Priti Patel next Conse... | no | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64 | 66,426,498 | 66,426,498 |
cff07f81a750360e33b1e8fcbe7bccfb82b95e38 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xd30592065c203fb93edc2d9e7cd0c4da5093f4ce7d57e85e55761c8ae27e3ce1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Tom Tugendhat next Conservative party leader? | Event: next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Priti Patel next Conservative party leader? | Event: next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Suella Braverman next Con... | no | 1 | fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Will Patrick Mahomes be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | 66,426,498 | 66,426,498 |
44525c46f9ba88e2f1befd4a6839d6e2ad417a9f | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xd6c43ad71804d12bf5b00dd3957d5eca76a9ae9b31f982945a701329b2889dff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Priti Patel next Conservative party leader? | Event: next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Suella Braverman next Conservative party leader? | Event: next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: David Cameron next Con... | no | 1 | f1-2024-season-winner | Will Lando Norris win the 2024 F1 season? | 66,426,498 | 66,426,498 |
04f82088a6c52ec67dd719d43f697fb96649f2f2 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xe4a9b98237a29e778ac5717e3d29220bb2f0c0370e8e3436d4a277853556355f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Suella Braverman next Conservative party leader? | Event: next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: David Cameron next Conservative party leader? | Event: next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Nigel Farage next Co... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting? | 66,426,498 | 66,426,498 |
02834375ab5feccd6296c831d6465a6161d7b404 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0xff5c1e73e31ad495136fcafce90710a3a1771a96f07116db60aeaae095c0ec29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: David Cameron next Conservative party leader? | Event: next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Nigel Farage next Conservative party leader? | Event: next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will someone else be the... | no | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 215+ | 66,426,498 | 66,426,498 |
77e9f790dd366ccf460612d8d929c7258c75bdf9 | 0x3676d395e94ad0a2ca17813dc9b2bbaff87dfd35 | 0x14a087f7b1b23b9a3c32799255edf18832d548302d6657efdba816a458a18d4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Nigel Farage next Conservative party leader? | Event: next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will someone else be the next Conservative party leader? | Event: next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jordan L... | no | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214 | 66,426,499 | 66,426,499 |
f17d59937041fcff0a41bfae2d6ca9d6c9307814 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xf930da5d3e9114b0d5f69e0d84d529833857acf31ec21671de6ed74e583a0d7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans
Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | celtics | 0.2 | nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Celtics vs. Pelicans | 78,241,561 | 78,241,602 |
b3cbc59f631080494d72e51b55887fbdbe779840 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x6d427c2a1ae4a6edac446928e21e8e82ea32874c95d690e46fee08cddb93f7d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
Target market:
Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?
Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON:... | yes | 1 | mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | 78,274,727 | 78,274,727 |
b29560bba50672e9e1564772ff8724cec5a6adf1 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x0f3fcf213aad886400898482ed316da647cf80681c2afb7ce04ea43e9dd8f35f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27?
Ev... | no | 1 | tur-sam-riz-2025-10-27 | Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | 78,274,729 | 78,274,729 |
a4c1fe1fe6864866fb9dfc48df1d2f954f6bffef | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x3d39d9321a8c4531c50f41f5bc2320cbfcc6694bce63d0430406baf249f04e75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | yes | 1 | lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-27? | 78,275,049 | 78,275,049 |
ab0d4cb8396563bbd29ac5aada7656a575edb8a0 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xca78e9f42e78f31d8e61cc3ca2a4cd0a0941e8a7f07c166e1413cb4a3251abb1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | no | 1 | por-mor-por-2025-10-27 | Will FC Porto win on 2025-10-27? | 78,275,051 | 78,275,051 |
e14999222acdde01716b456183e8368a019fc4fa | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xc3e184df47498c57139892d9ebd7ff1bdca29c80d4298211d1e13d75e4bf6726 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | yes | 1 | lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Will Real Betis win on 2025-10-27? | 78,275,090 | 78,275,090 |
b72ec3925346b7ed4ed164a5dc837473bb9b5228 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x6fa5615115b7a42c1a85fbf708ed86b567d32cf7663f7529702148109d954c4a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | magic | 0.515464 | nba-orl-det-2025-10-29 | Magic vs. Pistons | 78,284,239 | 78,284,239 |
85f744267b89afceb6cebe16c852fd01854295aa | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x6b05c24e62a2260d3cea682c22c826fc86b7de74187281a443ba7538f9bc2950 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | no | 0.084846 | cdr-our-ovi-2025-10-28 | Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-10-28? | 78,284,258 | 78,295,863 |
9b1ea5e77681d672602dcfd70c0e3999bd8ce21c | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x37297ec2ec2f77707f999de7db7ae58dd4c7ddd1a0222eae605da9c8d7f87283 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | no | 1 | sea-lec-nap-2025-10-28 | Will Napoli win on 2025-10-28? | 78,293,322 | 78,293,322 |
81321f89bfd09df1d89ffe24a4283d548186b36e | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x7cd75d04bc667b69e1e17fb1a43efdb53dc37a5b3e2a77b55cd658dbcd627d11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | no | 1 | cdr-atl-bur-2025-10-28 | Will Burgos CF win on 2025-10-28? | 78,295,519 | 78,295,519 |
accd4ee48e122350d8e4d6ed73d46142b7e4ecf1 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xbc9bd27fdfbc32d9823e10a75f438df316f751737a745b287b0def70c3a77476 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | no | 1 | cdr-mrc-val-2025-10-28 | Will Valencia CF win on 2025-10-28? | 78,295,596 | 78,295,596 |
26659eb7b8a27970c33549d748c15dc673e457c6 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x175dc2944fd78df534bcd25c5c346029ba70a4c26798e1f445e78df59ac860b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | yes | 1 | cdr-our-ovi-2025-10-28 | Will Ourense CF win on 2025-10-28? | 78,295,864 | 78,295,864 |
8f3cc6213b823a7a8f465173f42eb9371e69fa36 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x5ddaecdffc4bd601de8b32ad001ad778490aa826ec23606d09ec2ad913184b47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | yes | 1 | efl-bre-gri-2025-10-28 | Will Grimsby Town FC win on 2025-10-28? | 78,297,026 | 78,297,026 |
9b6b3d299b56fe04900b732181a0e674aa2be9da | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xfdddda94eb08dff6e09a1bf5e2925d02207ea7c969e3101fc889528724e9f6f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | yes | 1 | efl-bre-gri-2025-10-28 | Will Brentford FC vs. Grimsby Town FC end in a draw? | 78,297,027 | 78,297,027 |
70d906a8fb4dcd88c75a42b2cb1fbc46c75250c5 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xdf14bd5268a24f7203dee8bfa046df7f935ce76eb75cea6ee6beb96b819b82f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | no | 1 | efl-bre-gri-2025-10-28 | Will Brentford FC win on 2025-10-28? | 78,297,105 | 78,297,105 |
7a877060f15d260a867635b7adffd0fa315d6520 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x149a8242ec4eee7c05a9054413f77fd5555882addf8a40ddcdf7f61e3350ad19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | yes | 1 | sea-ata-mil-2025-10-28 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28? | 78,297,144 | 78,297,144 |
930cf6890b411666e8fc61224a6bc1b54cc67b0b | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x12cad430c3f68b956e0cc833ca589614d5a037778ca27a536c0f651bac54fda4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | yes | 1 | cdr-neg-rso-2025-10-28 | Will SD Negreira vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? | 78,297,374 | 78,297,374 |
5860cbab80dd7d3cd2b860ed51691d47286691a3 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x0930e7d1051accbd9b9ff7ed9cc30c146a18d59d6f91669d7e151bc51f11048b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | yes | 1 | efl-car-wre-2025-10-28 | Will Wrexham AFC win on 2025-10-28? | 78,297,489 | 78,297,489 |
15b33fec40220df242374ea5f7f9962b0a56c299 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xa98ba191c24ec123f114d971c54cc38c92b548b619c6c340ec7ce90c208cd859 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | yes | 1 | efl-ful-wyc-2025-10-28 | Will Wycombe Wanderers FC win on 2025-10-28? | 78,298,462 | 78,298,462 |
0b0461d7d79284ae79b3cda7b864f907d4951285 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xd541aab778570aa86d22c7299f6a955c05f9ee9406956e01737e0b7f7d1a7c37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | blue jackets | 1 | nhl-cbj-buf-2025-10-28 | Blue Jackets vs. Sabres | 78,302,137 | 78,302,137 |
952ccdaed8aeb3b6c29f194459bb39d10d7f2e02 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x66c80ff3711d919687940c05b1a959ba557b26f7211c7e4a607a4b46d4d31c3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | no | 1 | sud-cam-ind1-2025-10-28 | Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-28? | 78,312,753 | 78,312,753 |
e60d9245ae6f0af24e1cb11a01bb5236666d6f42 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x1fe4de5a441dca98eb0a4c2822758e1da3097c54cef5d83230e8b254b4c12094 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | yes | 1 | sud-cam-ind1-2025-10-28 | Will Independiente del Valle win on 2025-10-28? | 78,312,797 | 78,312,797 |
252b538f824f8c24751c3bd418e47138f4ed1933 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x57dc03b44fec2217d2544f265df5a9d6c1eb385a374b5bbcacf4b6bcae87f7f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | yes | 1 | sud-cam-ind1-2025-10-28 | Will CA Mineiro vs. Independiente del Valle end in a draw? | 78,312,797 | 78,312,797 |
6166c119beb59f6c2e4cbc80769dac8efb22a1d6 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xf194738da697c4a6ef3a596c6955db500b5f0356f55249f110d57d61fd02360f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | ctbc flying oyster | 1 | lol-kt-cfo-2025-10-29 | LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner | 78,313,301 | 78,313,301 |
38f0f3282b6ce03f4b2f60bf659fdc27d95e529c | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x2e587425cf42e2375f64a86ac4c219c7ae7f83c155e8699e41e502c6ace04ed2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | yes | 1 | sea-rom-par-2025-10-29 | Will AS Roma vs. Parma end in a draw? | 78,336,451 | 78,336,451 |
63938ab5e50535de7034fa0b2642243c036de34e | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xb8f7945f6cd9bbe796a932196d6d3d4abb656b1fad0d5e33c03dc80ea126169d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | no | 1 | sea-rom-par-2025-10-29 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-29? | 78,336,451 | 78,336,451 |
96f53da03ffe12d30153509cc2d76c4a7047da37 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xc86c9de14ef1bf804854762eb62df3f4d67dd74ccce4d4433341b4e52148b59d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | yes | 1 | sea-rom-par-2025-10-29 | Will Parma win on 2025-10-29? | 78,336,493 | 78,336,493 |
b4852019fe4dac7fd54185ceea1fb5a9ac54fb0d | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xe62120725d7e62990c210613dd769fddcc37d7d5e260ce5591cd2e78da4bb569 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | yes | 1 | sea-com-ver-2025-10-29 | Will Como vs. Verona end in a draw? | 78,336,618 | 78,336,618 |
9ddc20b706e4cfab0d56d3e525e5fd656acacdf3 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x5c3e6f8ed26d618f825cef883a3ba5a163fe7e1d5c582a86b5fbf9bcbaee5326 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | yes | 1 | sea-com-ver-2025-10-29 | Will Verona win on 2025-10-29? | 78,336,657 | 78,336,657 |
95af0de44efc8031fa315fb681912cf724072a65 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x484cb1ff4e261fa49b7143b4f2aa2f2928edfcc2c749a5246cdb64c3cdcc2294 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | no | 1 | sea-juv-udi-2025-10-29 | Will Juventus win on 2025-10-29? | 78,336,696 | 78,336,696 |
88503ee814369150d1c35592f02eaa328597ee8c | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xed51c482e58317378e4c32ef29c39a3eced66f0356417cd6fc2ae7b1dc1fdf86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-bos-nop-2025-10-28 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sa... | yes | 1 | sea-juv-udi-2025-10-29 | Will Juventus vs. Udinese end in a draw? | 78,336,696 | 78,336,696 |
7dc9bd2e36ea3253f8bbe201bb08caf56019e7d2 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xbb2225a932831be03fcc3ab9fccbfa7f42e1bfaa4ef5074d69c81b2229af80dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sam-riz-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-27? |... | no | 1 | sea-com-ver-2025-10-29 | Will Como win on 2025-10-29? | 78,336,734 | 78,336,734 |
aa3a7af0ec41c346c4a96a3285bc9ed42fd94b0d | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x7357f09e0e4d440d6d7a215b6ca07cb311e033e068c7940673716f91d6e6ba00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-sam-riz-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-27? | Event: lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win on 2025-10-27? | Event: por-mor-por-2025-10-27 ... | yes | 1 | cdr-jor-osa-2025-10-29 | Will PE Sant Jordi win on 2025-10-29? | 78,337,109 | 78,337,109 |
75ce131a577537b5d3b99aa955fe9aadec49c2f1 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x9958b3ce06baf10ad2fd03bac5129bb600492bb8f1cbf3b00e73e1afa46139b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-27? | Event: lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Porto win on 2025-10-27? | Event: por-mor-por-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-10-27? | Event: lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 ... | yes | 1 | fl1-hac-sbr-2025-10-29 | Will Le Havre AC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,337,185 | 78,337,185 |
675554bd40091b7597edcea5305d686aad89afc6 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xb0e0262ae7ed04907c9f7e76141b89a713a5d44952ce428bbf32ce3d6718a745 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Porto win on 2025-10-27? | Event: por-mor-por-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-10-27? | Event: lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Magic vs. Pistons | Event: nba-orl-det-2025-10-29 | Choice: magic | Conf... | yes | 1 | nor-bra-bog-2025-10-29 | Will SK Brann win on 2025-10-29? | 78,337,339 | 78,337,339 |
8bc55ffe93b12c6c6861b163a506263aadf3f135 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x4d447b4db26de9247abbebbda572ccfc9408a7252209d8d3feb9ac9962922a1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-10-27? | Event: lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Magic vs. Pistons | Event: nba-orl-det-2025-10-29 | Choice: magic | Confidence: 0.5154639175257731
3. Question: Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-10-28? | Event: cdr-our-ovi-2025-10-28 |... | no | 1 | fl1-met-rcl-2025-10-29 | Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-29? | 78,337,532 | 78,337,532 |
f6a07b600e93b6ff5e3d272b61f8c1fb5c025354 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x5cef365928b5bb3e69ea6370a11d400e1a3399c46f0b31e4e8c8a5b12096fed5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magic vs. Pistons | Event: nba-orl-det-2025-10-29 | Choice: magic | Confidence: 0.5154639175257731
2. Question: Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-10-28? | Event: cdr-our-ovi-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.08484561070906345
3. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sea-lec-nap-2... | yes | 1 | fl1-met-rcl-2025-10-29 | Will FC Metz win on 2025-10-29? | 78,337,532 | 78,337,532 |
fbcfe08cc7ddad17b8fa003c90bc4f0aad68bb96 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x8563f86ae756b44540b957c886540d22148ae3741ac26b9729fb2939ad61ab6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-10-28? | Event: cdr-our-ovi-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.08484561070906345
2. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sea-lec-nap-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Burgos CF win on 2025-10-28? | Event: cdr-atl-bur-202... | no | 1 | cdr-gar-elc-2025-10-29 | Will Elche CF win on 2025-10-29? | 78,337,686 | 78,337,686 |
c859f1a46b946d5b91af02df4668bfe86dd9a750 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x38b3ceabd87aa4c69788696f2648814dea1d92d469cdfeff0fb593019a784ad2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sea-lec-nap-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Burgos CF win on 2025-10-28? | Event: cdr-atl-bur-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Valencia CF win on 2025-10-28? | Event: cdr-mrc-val-2025-10-28 | Choice... | no | 1 | fl1-ogc-lil-2025-10-29 | Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,337,771 | 78,337,771 |
e6c3153d4c44bd7da8c02890a9cfc6212db22464 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x2b69814333a79430d39099ef1d348b9c37aa4f1c45dd9608277029ad7e689797 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Burgos CF win on 2025-10-28? | Event: cdr-atl-bur-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Valencia CF win on 2025-10-28? | Event: cdr-mrc-val-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ourense CF win on 2025-10-28? | Event: cdr-our-ovi-2025-10-28 | Ch... | yes | 1 | fl1-ogc-lil-2025-10-29 | Will OGC Nice vs. Lille OSC end in a draw? | 78,337,772 | 78,337,772 |
d8d242673a6cf50921fff29b93ad27bc2e79d769 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xc38f9afaa3f23299098495e585751dd889f6df881b128ad1f32f63885c4b8ae3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Valencia CF win on 2025-10-28? | Event: cdr-mrc-val-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ourense CF win on 2025-10-28? | Event: cdr-our-ovi-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Grimsby Town FC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-bre-gri-2025-10-... | no | 1 | fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,337,772 | 78,337,772 |
04e52a210403ca3792d9c03abd25044d61a1d7be | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xeb477f614a7ac0a6bd70236d5412758de59a962af2d7c33a8e611e5d6a2d7aa1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ourense CF win on 2025-10-28? | Event: cdr-our-ovi-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grimsby Town FC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-bre-gri-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford FC vs. Grimsby Town FC end in a draw? | Event: ef... | yes | 1 | fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Will FC Lorient vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? | 78,337,773 | 78,337,773 |
4e5a2c238c519d7ec2c81b2ec350655f7f316ac3 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xb4a9c57052a505eafaddeca4be6abfd80a6e5e38a68ee91e6c5d71c696ca82a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Grimsby Town FC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-bre-gri-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford FC vs. Grimsby Town FC end in a draw? | Event: efl-bre-gri-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford FC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | cdr-jor-osa-2025-10-29 | Will PE Sant Jordi vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? | 78,337,810 | 78,337,810 |
39eb9799b8a54980254bc87ee2361a3ee992c207 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x6d9ab329edbb378855029d6515cd537d33c25843be6f112f8e7bedcafc83f875 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brentford FC vs. Grimsby Town FC end in a draw? | Event: efl-bre-gri-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford FC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-bre-gri-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sea-ata-... | no | 1 | cdr-jor-osa-2025-10-29 | Will CA Osasuna win on 2025-10-29? | 78,337,848 | 78,337,848 |
5fa9c04381d4814fc99cdffef265b0596811778a | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xa8613775fb352943286fd1f63b99cbeb0e87ac78661224521e158d90e67ca6e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brentford FC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-bre-gri-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sea-ata-mil-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SD Negreira vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? | Event: c... | yes | 1 | fl1-ogc-lil-2025-10-29 | Will OGC Nice win on 2025-10-29? | 78,338,125 | 78,338,125 |
6e8a454348463a2c4f97099547a9040f3f4f7a40 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x223a333d86cd0e545d347a52a9cae0076c8f890499b7033165e62f6a8f9cd4a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sea-ata-mil-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SD Negreira vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? | Event: cdr-neg-rso-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wrexham AFC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: e... | yes | 1 | cdr-lor-alm-2025-10-29 | Will CF Lorca Deportiva vs. UD Almería end in a draw? | 78,339,172 | 78,339,172 |
1bcd1fecbed0de5f7e2ceb14d6ddc0d6e19c68d1 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xb715faee2fecab8e4d5b8dc9649c78dc0868ebeeb16a3d6117d280f65702d8a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SD Negreira vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? | Event: cdr-neg-rso-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wrexham AFC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-car-wre-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wycombe Wanderers FC win on 2025-10-28... | no | 1 | cdr-lor-alm-2025-10-29 | Will UD Almería win on 2025-10-29? | 78,339,266 | 78,339,266 |
de4cdd05c73ea2fcc7c91f9f8825fb9d8e4f146d | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x7c83c7bf31eee7fbeea83c39bc5fac161e79f1d3cef13ab97e3f8726f31577bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wrexham AFC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-car-wre-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wycombe Wanderers FC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-ful-wyc-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Blue Jackets vs. Sabres | Event: nhl-cbj-buf-2025-10-28 | ... | no | 1 | cdr-jus-mal1-2025-10-29 | Will RCD Mallorca win on 2025-10-29? | 78,339,341 | 78,339,341 |
78c32d431538bd43866865a8e20360a6ee916cd6 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x61a0823455afb718c1435274c7d1d608788950de641b62668453fdb52d8554c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wycombe Wanderers FC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-ful-wyc-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Blue Jackets vs. Sabres | Event: nhl-cbj-buf-2025-10-28 | Choice: blue jackets | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sud-cam-ind1-2025... | yes | 1 | efl-bha-ars-2025-10-29 | Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,340,683 | 78,340,683 |
45389f321b19f1a458607d87c1ffdf32eda63ae8 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x4e51de3129b76add333dcfe7a46d60c2c98f059b5e1b1753cf5418d3e475e96a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blue Jackets vs. Sabres | Event: nhl-cbj-buf-2025-10-28 | Choice: blue jackets | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sud-cam-ind1-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Independiente del Valle win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sud-cam-ind1-2... | no | 1 | sea-int-fio-2025-10-29 | Will Inter win on 2025-10-29? | 78,340,722 | 78,340,722 |
50e640fcfc8d50caf2390072414986db6ea3e98f | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xbee1056f1b7baf74b6de84e7609684dffd1eb0b966a8a859804f22bdb0091b53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sud-cam-ind1-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Independiente del Valle win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sud-cam-ind1-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Mineiro vs. Independiente del Valle end in a dr... | no | 1 | efl-bha-ars-2025-10-29 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,340,760 | 78,340,760 |
583028201f254f3d355e03e4598cc8a1b79ca958 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xc66f7450ed6b46018fcd988c414da7b69f7fb120e2ea4d984adcbceb28ddddc0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Independiente del Valle win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sud-cam-ind1-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Mineiro vs. Independiente del Valle end in a draw? | Event: sud-cam-ind1-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying... | yes | 1 | sea-int-fio-2025-10-29 | Will Inter vs. Fiorentina end in a draw? | 78,340,797 | 78,340,797 |
0be757f246b55e0d4b69be84967aa6eb9f62b8cb | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xecfc8896367a06d99f81e7bd5c6468a909629aad37046897796692b04e34acf7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Mineiro vs. Independiente del Valle end in a draw? | Event: sud-cam-ind1-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner | Event: lol-kt-cfo-2025-10-29 | Choice: ctbc flying oyster | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AS Rom... | yes | 1 | sea-int-fio-2025-10-29 | Will Fiorentina win on 2025-10-29? | 78,340,797 | 78,340,797 |
82fcfc9ec2ba6ec2a452915edb0763dc1c98a0d7 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x71fb4b1f5cab56d481f42983075e086b403a12dccb06711343f935fcc89f96c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner | Event: lol-kt-cfo-2025-10-29 | Choice: ctbc flying oyster | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma vs. Parma end in a draw? | Event: sea-rom-par-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-29? |... | no | 1 | efl-mnc-swa-2025-10-29 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,340,835 | 78,340,835 |
d785e32b0050bb5074290c392717681322d00ba4 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xdfbf3c502403e58ff2cc70775bdf95508e74686485d134b39e87401461e76093 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AS Roma vs. Parma end in a draw? | Event: sea-rom-par-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-rom-par-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Parma win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-rom-par-2025-10-29 | Choice... | yes | 1 | efl-mnc-swa-2025-10-29 | Will Manchester City FC vs. Swansea City AFC end in a draw? | 78,340,835 | 78,340,835 |
95ea0db363027ae8b7c48ad1fe1bc13873107e36 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xfff4674de0ee1a94c652afebe00e3748e2d355b27214c5cefbffa04c53784a4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-rom-par-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Parma win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-rom-par-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Como vs. Verona end in a draw? | Event: sea-com-ver-2025-10-29 | Choice: ... | yes | 0.333333 | efl-cry-liv-2025-10-29 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,340,873 | 78,340,873 |
78c7abae2c3e965822674fdf7058c82de72f3085 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x7287834f7a2d771523f22bc3c5d8cb3e3406a42219bb5c50fc728562d9413195 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Parma win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-rom-par-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Como vs. Verona end in a draw? | Event: sea-com-ver-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Verona win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-com-ver-2025-10-29 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | sea-gen-cre-2025-10-29 | Will US Cremonese win on 2025-10-29? | 78,340,910 | 78,340,910 |
c0cc3d5e434d624c4232de9c0792bfc96af65626 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x80d555d45a82ee2a5d6b5985b6de78697f493b6dd9d568432d41f887ca8af648 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Como vs. Verona end in a draw? | Event: sea-com-ver-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Verona win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-com-ver-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-juv-udi-2025-10-29 | Choic... | no | 1 | sea-gen-cre-2025-10-29 | Will Genoa win on 2025-10-29? | 78,340,948 | 78,340,948 |
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