sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
488dd1c1028813eac24bebf87f77eaa9b3cf2886 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x0c310c0dd164e77c068f2a5ea99b48b2cf7570aea31965ce0bad2029efea1457 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Volendam win on 2025-11-01? | Event: ere-fey-vol-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. FC Volendam end in a draw? | Event: ere-fey-vol-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Vitória win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bra... | no | 1 | epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02? | 78,507,309 | 78,507,309 |
0a5819697c9177a3a0e8e4ca55e91c4d5a95d7d3 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x9971b0cc62c4030d64aa4251fc2a2fed4cd34b682ff7a179c00c59d553615edb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. FC Volendam end in a draw? | Event: ere-fey-vol-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will EC Vitória win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bra-cru-vit-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. OGC Nice end in ... | yes | 1 | den-nor-ode-2025-11-02 | Will Odense BK win on 2025-11-02? | 78,508,548 | 78,508,548 |
6eaf9bc3ce930807e4dd11f842e86d1275b49b57 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xac37b7fb3b67a21926e9788fe92dc5c7538c974804f8b047a13c66eb1a384e04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Vitória win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bra-cru-vit-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. OGC Nice end in a draw? | Event: fl1-psg-ogc-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-01? |... | yes | 1 | bra-cor1-gre-2025-11-02 | Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? | 78,511,876 | 78,511,876 |
bb8476fea81ce5665648df17cccef18dba3d63ff | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x15ba7db7095e7b946186a07b7d2f36fc1269de1e074796b2a39ff562822abb6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. OGC Nice end in a draw? | Event: fl1-psg-ogc-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: fl1-psg-ogc-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-11-01? | Ev... | no | 1 | bra-cor1-gre-2025-11-02 | Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-11-02? | 78,511,975 | 78,511,975 |
5c80e39c392104974ccefdb29c2825e398866db0 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xd37e698858516255b142ad26500ce73497f9db41f223c5a2e756be36412ba570 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: fl1-psg-ogc-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-11-01? | Event: fl1-psg-ogc-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Cremonese win on 2025-11-01? | Event: sea-cre-juv-20... | yes | 1 | sea-mil-rom-2025-11-02 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-02? | 78,513,381 | 78,513,381 |
2807840c8394cf7b7e764f7ba36351a6cc82e318 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xf758b787cdf3753d5b5e8461cb3c7a981b4702dc5300a2aa08e62ee0141b8c37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-11-01? | Event: fl1-psg-ogc-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Cremonese win on 2025-11-01? | Event: sea-cre-juv-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Cremonese vs. Juventus end in a draw? | Event: sea-cre-juv-20... | yes | 1 | arg-god-sms-2025-11-02 | Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-11-02? | 78,516,553 | 78,516,553 |
57569131fd96169803bec33235543f5115c7f0f2 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x33911dad881adb208486b16cd7dbf8e835349d89b312b8e840db2b590d64c637 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US Cremonese win on 2025-11-01? | Event: sea-cre-juv-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Cremonese vs. Juventus end in a draw? | Event: sea-cre-juv-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-11-01? | Event: sea-cre-juv-20... | yes | 1 | bra-int-cam-2025-11-02 | Will SC Internacional win on 2025-11-02? | 78,516,620 | 78,516,620 |
8efa356b15fd07ff992cb8cd569a44644812166e | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x6285d1fb464accdcd14d13a2d6c72bbbe38171de0d11b6e1a6921afec17e4333 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US Cremonese vs. Juventus end in a draw? | Event: sea-cre-juv-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-11-01? | Event: sea-cre-juv-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Valencia win on 2025-11-01? | Event: lal-rea-val-2025-11... | hawks | 1 | nba-atl-cle-2025-11-02 | Hawks vs. Cavaliers | 78,518,534 | 78,518,534 |
384dbb655f12e9cb84185c17c272e3483f173eef | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xd0e47f91cb1a0bc7a0d655b8872d904cfa3ed2ae079da58832a1e0dae05baed4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-11-01? | Event: sea-cre-juv-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Valencia win on 2025-11-01? | Event: lal-rea-val-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-11-01? | Event: fl1-aja-olm-2025-11-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | mex-que-maz-2025-11-02 | Will Querétaro FC win on 2025-11-02? | 78,519,405 | 78,519,405 |
77095e157c2c3edf4674aae81ce11896a440dca3 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x5099489c193d9a8473f4b363481b42cf9c8bfd33ca7eda3cd62256a70f477330 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Valencia win on 2025-11-01? | Event: lal-rea-val-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-11-01? | Event: fl1-aja-olm-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitória SC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: por-gui-ben-2025-11-01 | Ch... | yes | 1 | arg-riv-gim-2025-11-02 | Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2025-11-02? | 78,520,519 | 78,520,519 |
61beb30baba4a1ac89d79f1172f76cdc07afb013 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xadd7e0315fa92f7d63403fc100a651b08d38a498f26aabbb4d74e8d4d6e39cd1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-11-01? | Event: fl1-aja-olm-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vitória SC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: por-gui-ben-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitória SC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? | Event: po... | yes | 1 | mex-pac-gua-2025-11-02 | Will CF Pachuca win on 2025-11-02? | 78,522,683 | 78,522,683 |
b59bf62d3fdc4ce01e89fb95b3920e547d28b2a7 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x07de60cf0aeb3de6420e017f3266eae5bd39c062fc215a4985cffb778d1de7de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vitória SC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: por-gui-ben-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vitória SC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? | Event: por-gui-ben-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SBV Excelsior win on 2025-11-01? | Event:... | yes | 1 | mls-aus-laf-2025-11-02 | Will Austin FC vs. Los Angeles FC end in a draw? | 78,524,321 | 78,524,321 |
6296aa3ee388027b04d7de8800821f12e9d828da | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xfa0ccf874f6c00490d260e6de47900d9d54c74e2b981164d50889dbb05271f87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vitória SC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? | Event: por-gui-ben-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SBV Excelsior win on 2025-11-01? | Event: ere-tel-exc-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AFC Wimbledon win on 2025-11-01? | Eve... | halys | 1 | atp-berrett-halys-2025-11-02 | Open de Moselle: Matteo Berrettini vs Quentin Halys | 78,553,309 | 78,553,309 |
264aa3e27463efa17d021f5997751b9fd38cc23d | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xbe96df418306027c643502ede8381497219f6640599effc5b5b9be6c754a029b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SBV Excelsior win on 2025-11-01? | Event: ere-tel-exc-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AFC Wimbledon win on 2025-11-01? | Event: efa-wim-gat-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Independiente win on 2025-11-01? | Event: arg-ind-cat-20... | no | 1 | den-mid-agf-2025-11-03 | Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-11-03? | 78,553,473 | 78,553,473 |
3a8bd746b07d20a7407206986c1b24b3e30d14b5 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0x1fa298de6932968b0f58006e562f06d0575303b70a5f29f7bb29230f06f2a996 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Wimbledon win on 2025-11-01? | Event: efa-wim-gat-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Independiente win on 2025-11-01? | Event: arg-ind-cat-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nashville SC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: mls-nas-mia-2025... | no | 1 | sea-laz-cag-2025-11-03 | Will Lazio win on 2025-11-03? | 78,556,279 | 78,556,279 |
d9b9a3f8a4236e0190f3ed15c083330c6876efab | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xedcbeaa885384aad47ba3e156e1a0231cce04cd19a6d3d5d5888e96e0e11e6b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Independiente win on 2025-11-01? | Event: arg-ind-cat-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nashville SC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: mls-nas-mia-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SC Recife win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bra-fla-rec-2025-11... | yes | 1 | arg-def-cah-2025-11-03 | Will CA Huracán win on 2025-11-03? | 78,556,444 | 78,556,444 |
0b65c809c0ab096ed16699a9c090d4e614d35229 | 0x36aa3d5db8fcec0f74e1e16fb9f755bc5a99cd3a | 0xa32e0338903d2b35d49a41059f00053350e2684e1fb7b20150beb7067b635658 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nashville SC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: mls-nas-mia-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SC Recife win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bra-fla-rec-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Santos FC vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? | Event: bra-san-fec-... | yes | 1 | epl-sun-eve-2025-11-03 | Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-03? | 78,556,818 | 78,556,818 |
937b4cc97ca6fd401e53b740a6e1526b2edc051d | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xbcb70e357694345bcd6b1a2c7c999a352843b6044f3d36dd494ac18661c25ef8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government?
Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | 71,210,331 | 71,210,331 |
b004227d1633334abdcd6853212943a1af370540 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x7083d3ca57eca0ea8a555a8949cf6d1436e7b5b004e00c44b50cbe807218d341 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23?
Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23
Predict the user's cho... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | 71,898,474 | 71,898,474 |
45863429b5ec405aa51d59a34ccb2f3f410a45ac | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x2e84b9eec9ed75c7396656b46d05e7e93640098ac507b22224008322340ff2a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
T... | yes | 1 | norway-chess-2025 | Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | 72,468,924 | 72,468,924 |
11338875557654391ecf066bd2830ad8ad77a924 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x3c71efed721e4f55f78c17b9b6ec3fee97909a64291c247d39c46d4f0a9f52d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | norway-chess-2025 | Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | 72,468,924 | 72,468,924 |
9541ccc9b9e3370e9b7a194926259ccdfce7ac98 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xbcc6447b9b627392477ee096122a34fc1ac6e82e0d7485aace314d788ab8c86b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | norway-chess-2025 | Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | 72,468,924 | 72,468,924 |
b78c40b8a146086f4233c6bf6e9ddbfab23e15e4 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xc6c463d4559e8e157aa92ff2960a34e72c32d9ca0165cbd536dca74cfcbdaa00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 1 | norway-chess-2025 | Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | 72,468,924 | 72,468,924 |
4973e0a2f34e1d067a438ba398b791cf9aa3eed9 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xdc9043e19736aaef34eeb5fa4aa16d4a5bb85de87a46281525d241709fca3665 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-20-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET | 73,011,165 | 73,030,228 |
a4feb9aae5158d6ab29f0d1c8d8bf6cb565235da | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x413c66e483f0ad9f28b8d2468f69c80f25d3320db18c708aed7769ca6e8862d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET | 73,035,578 | 73,040,906 |
9589befa09b10df35a939ba639868989e8faed11 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xbebc33b939b6c2baa4fdf6ee4de0abe2f5ee358fbe4fffb082238b94cbea973c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET | 73,039,318 | 73,042,486 |
6d21ab50006e92986cb635329c23c32a9aa552b2 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x219d277ddf066c4807fd38e2a024aedb9761a6d21cb65c1b14b1e2df87e4424c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET | 73,039,824 | 73,044,159 |
42beac80b58c0dcdabc97a9f4a921d439438bb9c | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x9c39a25528d9903a05f106aec174b5fa801213f5a0f07d87f5d2b1179ddd9a48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET | 73,041,314 | 73,045,680 |
7c5898b2164ccdb7a1543a719e59d1ffb145c9ae | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xc2dc584e6bb02a3002e5729ef22b18e6164ed3572c502f0cc7dd6b89c94eaf6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | up | 0.00002 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET | 73,042,515 | 73,043,757 |
732e28dcb1b6195ac689910804d198b51582896f | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x05cf3d502af8ecf8e6e4a407744a6cd425598e8968792ec369b82014ff90a824 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET | 73,044,025 | 73,045,231 |
4033706dd29d602688d1038a545fbe1ff215e92e | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xcc93e8a64f5936ffa9e778fb08fb1747e77e782b50d5f1a70360ea56dcb592d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | up | 0.000033 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET | 73,045,877 | 73,047,267 |
c631ffc516fbc176df2d6d5ad2a1efa08ac09d9a | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xfa435a0f2fcee1028ffd41ea43abb9b3e071cb789f30b1bf439160534a01d8da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | up | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET | 73,047,472 | 73,048,830 |
a69d709d1330eb9876ff3c05bf71460322e5b0e2 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x3a037684e9daaf01026aa2ef0f6b04a602417b89314275008f7bf1ef63f2b48f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2PM ET | 73,052,288 | 73,052,288 |
ba516b2fe5287578ee48b410c7391eb66b8aa071 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x95cf5b18417cf596bf96b226db9b830426d7994885805803a29d4d0c21d140c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET | 73,052,686 | 73,053,890 |
963a0e525d28a4afc3e5defcfee2654b2234c69b | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x4dca8ffd0a97971e2d0563bf9405ba34cfe0414dd2cecdefb353d0191f303303 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET | 73,055,032 | 73,055,394 |
12fc5c86eb8a6a48cc93d96fef7e555e09ef55e9 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x54354d87ef21bff3fbdd2e01a79af26551fa6e465b5e9784a1ef664347bc8f4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-22-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET | 73,076,663 | 73,077,456 |
7a8b30a16b8f7828b1106aa80be777d9bc23fee3 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xf17ea5f8b039d351e083d25bc87ef0a74720d205fd40cf6050418c69a9d5669a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-22-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET | 73,077,662 | 73,083,379 |
ecc36450f971bdcec038a336ade855be36045c66 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xe598d5433fe9ff1dbe74fa67c9bcba6c86ac3ace2b7c46042f5b4008041aa47f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-22-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET | 73,080,769 | 73,080,769 |
731a90ace3a9a27f7aa9238ebb5e878dd9b852a8 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x9e2a723638d412c22ac3867bf02b96be0764d3d924911c2f41d845aa98c2f672 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-22-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET | 73,082,477 | 73,089,125 |
768dbeade1d1547cfecf4a88b1d772203f0ad32c | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xcc494fb7b1891a46a578c78c17cfb68ddd8289da3b4a5bc956a8890c662a5619 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | up | 0.000239 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-22-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET | 73,083,782 | 73,083,782 |
6d5fc006da7463fc306862252905bcdeed7b889a | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x42b2bc87ec026f9fab374d31a5118c485e5ffd55d9e458c26af908c1abc5a683 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-22-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET | 73,085,774 | 73,090,753 |
1d478ff831774b5b48305b61773de317dd28f4d2 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x1fcc8518e8af2291f40138984b62e39a74245cec5a46643332ee38842c788003 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-22-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET | 73,086,234 | 73,091,384 |
8a774d46c6634094d5f240efbbd0c69036c794a2 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x1f304ac5fd4dbf44fc7701dd3dcda11f5aa0113945246c6a0159c87a8a0368cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0.000006 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-22-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET | 73,090,913 | 73,090,913 |
1cf00a32a5ee9ea31b276d1bc04b9dff960ef989 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xeb7e3e8dac6c311d5fef5d40f99857f0d4920c6808a75c02e146abac1b352bce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-22-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET | 73,092,620 | 73,092,620 |
59e91666fda8cd17a8225f50fbb4af4bc6fd6d5f | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xabf8fad586c61354890015d841b1c408fec06d836fdc0cead2d1a0b74c99fe76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-23-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET | 73,110,921 | 73,194,762 |
53d1ababe734bfcfb0f6741ecf745a30456be9bc | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xb528ac820f85674af6f882360c8a2a21501712301138f5199baf35e054448ab1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-23-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET | 73,116,472 | 73,194,762 |
4a360c8705a1cb192d10fc5858fd8bec200dbb19 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xef493ccb7ca3799f34a64f962c0ea97fb59f7f0b1d092ae3b55bd27709c5978d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-23-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET | 73,116,480 | 73,116,480 |
b40254fd72550c08f3a34fc5c315c400c065940b | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xca07b5bd7995e258eccf61398370e73ade98c0dbb197a15e166be0d440ed4179 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-23-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET | 73,119,185 | 73,194,762 |
67903b7c435b19469bd76d1b530c625bab313848 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x6694d7f7244cc95d6dc6f4f56806b6f7006b0c77fab585be039f983227aad0ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | Event: norway-chess-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | down | 0.000489 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-28-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET | 73,317,927 | 73,318,675 |
8dedd99bc7c9470b67a0e77dfa69a558e643bd6e | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x057997438479e410303be152a20f2908a2e51732885dbacd15308220696a5902 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | Event: norway-chess-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | Event: norway-chess-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-28-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5AM ET | 73,319,881 | 73,320,572 |
d12133dc88147c2cc547c8e9d877d02a24cda852 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x57498411e801f123387a3cefb2b885f6934bdc3eba43865a9695d879f05b0ade | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | Event: norway-chess-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | Event: norway-chess-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 20... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-june-28-5am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5AM ET | 73,320,293 | 73,320,572 |
f6f0a07116f0693c85fb86e79738f93d9ec303cb | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xbd522f7d0f4329403b094e7cec6f11c2cc793d4229cb4a0e53acc5212e0a067b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | Event: norway-chess-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | Event: norway-chess-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-june-28-6am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6AM ET | 73,321,046 | 73,321,788 |
db2c61abcd180d6924781968f7664f1e8a9980db | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x1566ac9d8b73bce05bc5d1e7b75afaabd61aade0e5d220f098f2a11c00041cc5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | Event: norway-chess-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-20-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-28-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6AM ET | 73,321,046 | 73,326,731 |
38c2d739537275e9b717d38299fa06cab3da11e6 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x2ed088f30efb345d6f132a0dbc0a8f26a2f478e2b007d8f2d188ecebd8b47cbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-20-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET | Ev... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-28-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7AM ET | 73,323,655 | 73,324,282 |
c4d2d12a8a487b97745e4f89881155a8598d5050 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x718972fa15bd05a42144627e955af1fcbb6389ec5ff3fd0ebdf970025ae4ea92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET | Ev... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-28-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8AM ET | 73,325,368 | 73,329,793 |
24666648916f948fa1756bd4083d3a4b1b3309ef | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x7e0b12060b4c0e31197c0aa95ea33b8215305daca1c57553b8c07c87917c95f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET | Ev... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-28-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9AM ET | 73,326,739 | 73,332,198 |
7e0e6ee963f0b4eca5b933cf7bb1a2faa43bd8c6 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x4d9cdeb9b6b59ffea2a92f1d0acb13f7ccf3025115568e5f343630a2eb0160ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET | Ev... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-28-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET | 73,329,939 | 73,329,939 |
99a3b7a93c0c64f34b0e194ea90da525ad1c5244 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xa07f6b7465d350fdfea57bfd5302cea97d7e8df4f5e4c81886d8fdab0b4e0fdc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-9am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 2.0294278674766452e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Jun... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-28-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11AM ET | 73,329,939 | 73,332,264 |
efba8bad18e25d670bdb5c385b5478bab165b9c5 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xddb3f8f109e0fc80c54247ce0ce58f2c9a7c9de691256cb76b2c9ffe869043fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-9am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 2.0294278674766452e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - J... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-28-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12PM ET | 73,332,264 | 73,338,731 |
495b397e5e5bbd36347c581f8b8ab17cc5daa115 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xe0d28bfc8c3cfc9a8ad8651f3c888452569c6e3834285cdd5822f59b8790880e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.3407948081136e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Ju... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-28-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET | 73,334,935 | 73,339,511 |
36a12ab74cf2994a5bddc73c7aaca5361b3a6b2b | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x28957d05afe3f4820a65851231ce5a4e47e5ba9dc934cd6880647104aa0149d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.3407948081136e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.1539520496076505e-07
3. Question: Bitcoi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-28-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4PM ET | 73,338,741 | 73,354,530 |
9a444c32da335af64e39db45c2a8eedd8f2e8164 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xf0c195cdc74e54b6f8d73d2d7ec5294e1a39001c701f958611bc882782cb0a67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.1539520496076505e-07
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - J... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-28-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3PM ET | 73,338,741 | 73,354,530 |
57c463cd121fa3da6384d4e7d0f4c825a342671b | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xf6fce885559f82e5f3194f32e2f9afa4358b173b7254c7d1899af6723a4956d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET | Ev... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-5-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 12PM ET | 73,615,154 | 73,615,445 |
560b12fec53973357e0423836a2e48bd67d39307 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x4971c2dbba240304ef9080bbe3dd0e7dd637f0fc4fb37119d93c87b1bf77b591 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET | Ev... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-5-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 1PM ET | 73,617,184 | 73,619,216 |
3a89e979bb0d8aca00a8d0f86644ac5da7f4ab24 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xd9efb9daa22f5850cd33516f7839bc079aac58bcc524b1389a79ce98566c2d21 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-21-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-22-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET | Ev... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-5-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 2PM ET | 73,617,281 | 73,621,120 |
98c15716fb8baa2e69ddcab24e3f0baa1c0d9bb2 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x64f4045c2e34ee8548408321542e0beb4c6354cc38fed7c988e93948f5c855c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-22-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-22-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET | Ev... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-5-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 3PM ET | 73,620,503 | 73,620,503 |
ad8c722cb6cdbf864b68dad612c65dacec3f5bf9 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0xc07e1417a9d41b8f8b4b846c7c7a40b4b0950524075cc2b287189bcad011db73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-22-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-22-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET | Ev... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-6-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 12AM ET | 73,636,080 | 73,638,097 |
f7fc36ea576673968ea3d06255049ddfc1eef149 | 0x371fbd3bae60bf31dea7ff509818f3116c9bb7e6 | 0x5b3aff5ebb865e0cbce35b62c249d19ba7b7019fe0c6441c8bbc1ef8bd6b0d29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-22-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-22-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET | Ev... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-6-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 1AM ET | 73,636,080 | 73,639,300 |
dcbe133ba0b022232a7d02bf498cc48084a64557 | 0x3745ea2359adc5992b91402fc86e3f0d8419cf3b | 0x71b09addaedae22c76a3d7b071d54141b5459e07f5c500d72c873fe347594fea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Pirates vs. Brewers
Event: mlb-pit-mil-2025-08-11
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | pirates | 0.835187 | mlb-pit-mil-2025-08-11 | Pirates vs. Brewers | 75,091,574 | 75,091,574 |
c2df144f4615dd8bcd30ed6ef5d84e3cda7f9184 | 0x3745ea2359adc5992b91402fc86e3f0d8419cf3b | 0x196d28f0d590e5320c0e4bff55b03c40339e618ea29c3fdab8023be91df6593b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pirates vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-pit-mil-2025-08-11 | Choice: pirates | Confidence: 0.8351866479864017
Target market:
Question: Twins vs. Yankees
Event: mlb-min-nyy-2025-08-12
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": .... | twins | 0 | mlb-min-nyy-2025-08-12 | Twins vs. Yankees | 75,119,452 | 75,119,452 |
b56bc89852ee93d929ef51c5b01da79fd5317c27 | 0x3745ea2359adc5992b91402fc86e3f0d8419cf3b | 0x83d8ccc06907ed9a55dc5d5e68eebcea5484d875fb63807caa773570c5ad6119 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pirates vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-pit-mil-2025-08-11 | Choice: pirates | Confidence: 0.8351866479864017
2. Question: Twins vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-min-nyy-2025-08-12 | Choice: twins | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Tigers vs. White Sox
Event: mlb-det-cws-2025-08-12
Predict the use... | tigers | 0.146335 | mlb-det-cws-2025-08-12 | Tigers vs. White Sox | 75,127,281 | 75,127,281 |
103a9cc86c7f877df29f4c46944eba629cc5a245 | 0x3745ea2359adc5992b91402fc86e3f0d8419cf3b | 0xa56e1a2cd00a6400b1b9cbb3fc0b953ff44278dfd26b23b3424d154055b25138 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pirates vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-pit-mil-2025-08-11 | Choice: pirates | Confidence: 0.8351866479864017
2. Question: Twins vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-min-nyy-2025-08-12 | Choice: twins | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Tigers vs. White Sox | Event: mlb-det-cws-2025-08-12 | Choice: tigers | Confiden... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-mun-2025-08-24 | Will Fulham vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | 75,686,309 | 75,686,309 |
b5108ff41e78badc12a3404251382be4d4af5920 | 0x3745ea2359adc5992b91402fc86e3f0d8419cf3b | 0xc57c48ea08192107f7981b041ba115663b3d14935ea4315337a5e64351ddfa5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pirates vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-pit-mil-2025-08-11 | Choice: pirates | Confidence: 0.8351866479864017
2. Question: Twins vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-min-nyy-2025-08-12 | Choice: twins | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Tigers vs. White Sox | Event: mlb-det-cws-2025-08-12 | Choice: tigers | Confiden... | yes | 0.983976 | ucl-ath-ars-2025-09-16 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16? | 76,536,460 | 76,536,460 |
7d638bef3def2e2d36ada2b729d3e5457588a2bf | 0x3745ea2359adc5992b91402fc86e3f0d8419cf3b | 0x938c588686381deb39f3b556914db2cb034a84ed36631b58d6b80b1dbeb1f904 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pirates vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-pit-mil-2025-08-11 | Choice: pirates | Confidence: 0.8351866479864017
2. Question: Twins vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-min-nyy-2025-08-12 | Choice: twins | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Tigers vs. White Sox | Event: mlb-det-cws-2025-08-12 | Choice: tigers | Confiden... | yes | 1 | ucl-bru-mon-2025-09-18 | Will Club Brugge win on 2025-09-18? | 76,616,491 | 76,616,491 |
c7dd537bbb9bec04463189ca7bb90f79f91dc002 | 0x3745ea2359adc5992b91402fc86e3f0d8419cf3b | 0xa96ca4ad5c70f3b0ec8a6fc56d0e359b7dd39beafe970a26a04bb091ad5621bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pirates vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-pit-mil-2025-08-11 | Choice: pirates | Confidence: 0.8351866479864017
2. Question: Twins vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-min-nyy-2025-08-12 | Choice: twins | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Tigers vs. White Sox | Event: mlb-det-cws-2025-08-12 | Choice: tigers | Confiden... | yes | 1 | lal-rea-esp-2025-09-20 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-20? | 76,717,662 | 76,717,662 |
297b7946d0f2ff60a84d39185a0a120c2c83a1f9 | 0x3745ea2359adc5992b91402fc86e3f0d8419cf3b | 0xdee0c6f34fd9839e8f87eb8f9a3d7ddc093636ad1e1925a69ed61f67a443721b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pirates vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-pit-mil-2025-08-11 | Choice: pirates | Confidence: 0.8351866479864017
2. Question: Twins vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-min-nyy-2025-08-12 | Choice: twins | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Tigers vs. White Sox | Event: mlb-det-cws-2025-08-12 | Choice: tigers | Confiden... | yes | 1 | bun-hsv-hei-2025-09-20 | Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-09-20? | 76,717,662 | 76,717,662 |
3409eadf74db47715a227bef7b6c911886a42982 | 0x3745ea2359adc5992b91402fc86e3f0d8419cf3b | 0xc20fc6aa86e665263437aeaed39293534d7d31f42506799f1fc7e4527fe6fad4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pirates vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-pit-mil-2025-08-11 | Choice: pirates | Confidence: 0.8351866479864017
2. Question: Twins vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-min-nyy-2025-08-12 | Choice: twins | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Tigers vs. White Sox | Event: mlb-det-cws-2025-08-12 | Choice: tigers | Confiden... | yes | 1 | mex-pue-gua-2025-09-26 | Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-09-26? | 76,991,633 | 76,991,633 |
d6560d6568fd6462fda065305d361d49b6888472 | 0x3745ea2359adc5992b91402fc86e3f0d8419cf3b | 0x3a9d456fa59fb1c1f6ba0406a4363b2e143a6eaf3ae42ef642deffef52f0cb42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pirates vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-pit-mil-2025-08-11 | Choice: pirates | Confidence: 0.8351866479864017
2. Question: Twins vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-min-nyy-2025-08-12 | Choice: twins | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Tigers vs. White Sox | Event: mlb-det-cws-2025-08-12 | Choice: tigers | Confiden... | yes | 1 | mls-chi-clb-2025-09-27 | Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2025-09-27? | 77,000,626 | 77,000,626 |
30274a6c39ebcd7d5422c6460ab3e36fe181ac5f | 0x3745ea2359adc5992b91402fc86e3f0d8419cf3b | 0x09da9acc9cde121b27ceb9937bc0e69431944f1404758266e98165ea2e148414 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pirates vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-pit-mil-2025-08-11 | Choice: pirates | Confidence: 0.8351866479864017
2. Question: Twins vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-min-nyy-2025-08-12 | Choice: twins | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Tigers vs. White Sox | Event: mlb-det-cws-2025-08-12 | Choice: tigers | Confiden... | yes | 1 | tur-kas-kon-2025-10-05 | Will Kasımpaşa SK vs. Konyaspor end in a draw? | 77,325,812 | 77,325,812 |
77ddc7689c80b5c6ea6ea4739659b6e873e39f59 | 0x3745ea2359adc5992b91402fc86e3f0d8419cf3b | 0x28613fb3ef74e09f66aed5e88f077cb386cbc5668cab44efe2e0ee639e0e9b4a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pirates vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-pit-mil-2025-08-11 | Choice: pirates | Confidence: 0.8351866479864017
2. Question: Twins vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-min-nyy-2025-08-12 | Choice: twins | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Tigers vs. White Sox | Event: mlb-det-cws-2025-08-12 | Choice: tigers | Confiden... | no | 1 | caf-alg-uga-2025-10-14 | Will Uganda win on 2025-10-14? | 77,753,000 | 77,753,000 |
49fd1ca07ab20745e0dc05e131a71541bae0379d | 0x3745ea2359adc5992b91402fc86e3f0d8419cf3b | 0xb7b8e18465bd70eab1f584508c36d0ebc730b84cfbb4d1650f26ae5b56d2e5ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pirates vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-pit-mil-2025-08-11 | Choice: pirates | Confidence: 0.8351866479864017
2. Question: Twins vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-min-nyy-2025-08-12 | Choice: twins | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Tigers vs. White Sox | Event: mlb-det-cws-2025-08-12 | Choice: tigers | Confiden... | yes | 1 | caf-alg-uga-2025-10-14 | Will Algeria win on 2025-10-14? | 77,753,000 | 77,753,000 |
71d88714247509bf7de3db42791d730ebd99ac1e | 0x3745ea2359adc5992b91402fc86e3f0d8419cf3b | 0x0938b1476699b901067a3e365d82ac0f97d89629f4e0e42482153b5bdacde95d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pirates vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-pit-mil-2025-08-11 | Choice: pirates | Confidence: 0.8351866479864017
2. Question: Twins vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-min-nyy-2025-08-12 | Choice: twins | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Tigers vs. White Sox | Event: mlb-det-cws-2025-08-12 | Choice: tigers | Confiden... | yes | 1 | mex-asl-atl-2025-10-17 | Will Atlético San Luis win on 2025-10-17? | 77,837,658 | 77,837,658 |
a48e51cf7e496e2fc8340b013cc7724d427b27e5 | 0x3745ea2359adc5992b91402fc86e3f0d8419cf3b | 0xdfc7a02c10b07cebb1ab045a6b5e75a199c216b54154aeb78c2bf36b3289a77c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pirates vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-pit-mil-2025-08-11 | Choice: pirates | Confidence: 0.8351866479864017
2. Question: Twins vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-min-nyy-2025-08-12 | Choice: twins | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Tigers vs. White Sox | Event: mlb-det-cws-2025-08-12 | Choice: tigers | Confiden... | yes | 1 | mex-pue-tij-2025-10-17 | Will Club Puebla win on 2025-10-17? | 77,837,658 | 77,837,658 |
46562f8b70dcca96e276f07d1ffe1c7cdf637a5e | 0x37465b25e9fb30a4e35f3b790393e82a1fff3c29 | 0x2ccdc78547b47a146b116c5f3b626cc5ef4c9e8d571ec83a54bff3f3ef1f476b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend?
Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend? | 54,286,801 | 54,286,801 |
406afe8fa740c57e1e884be64adeaa9a1a0d706b | 0x37465b25e9fb30a4e35f3b790393e82a1fff3c29 | 0x2cf06bc2611641b8d3bd72a00c368e243b0495f144035a3db03b888dda89f74f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend?
Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office
Predict the user'... | yes | 1 | dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? | 54,286,801 | 54,286,801 |
94daa8c289d171515bec08ff86ec649f67af0486 | 0x37465b25e9fb30a4e35f3b790393e82a1fff3c29 | 0x45b4ecea87726c997c46358266818a11cdc6f6a68ff1a4c468352473512d070c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $80m-90m opening weekend? | 54,286,801 | 54,286,801 |
e0579fc1d96ffdcea51417f222b4039eafdb645c | 0x37465b25e9fb30a4e35f3b790393e82a1fff3c29 | 0xb0ced8080b1831d2eecf7bc4c175275a1c7c4c5a415d77c7b9613e4b76564401 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Will US gain less than 200k jobs in February? | 54,423,830 | 54,423,830 |
d1f4ac34571708aea357ff3d2e66f2a8a1907029 | 0x37465b25e9fb30a4e35f3b790393e82a1fff3c29 | 0xa33b178ddf2a5d302853fbebf44a6b675aa7a4ef544a27f17bc9cad6f68f03a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-original-song | Will I'm Just Ken win the Oscar for Best Original Song? | 54,543,749 | 54,543,749 |
1bddc4292a2ac27da59fdb64316bc6a051da9db7 | 0x37465b25e9fb30a4e35f3b790393e82a1fff3c29 | 0x193dba76f576e631a3649fd77cfd19812b0820aaa4b866364181e564daf16962 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | dune-part-two-total-domestic-box-office | Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $250m-300m by May 15? | 57,054,981 | 57,054,981 |
6b83b6d3d31aba31aa74ea08c66da8c11e610cdd | 0x37465b25e9fb30a4e35f3b790393e82a1fff3c29 | 0x07534bc8869ae2ea1971cdb06e83229d4c9a28e1c576fcdb398f4d3f8080c3e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | eu-election-which-party-will-win-the-most-seats | Will the EPP win the most seats in European Parliament? | 58,228,572 | 58,228,572 |
6f96045ffcf03344738bbbc47ff7eda6c17cca4c | 0x37465b25e9fb30a4e35f3b790393e82a1fff3c29 | 0xfc8aa052614e9b483dc411f2388bcc087db207ea1c4ab4a22e493eb26302b252 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 0.182499 | euro-2024-denmark-vs-england | Will England win? | 58,404,215 | 58,404,215 |
127c6098ef167a53bf5c5cca328a7ceaa5850815 | 0x37465b25e9fb30a4e35f3b790393e82a1fff3c29 | 0x0a41886a3be0238e8fcaac2bf6b508da3a7c484bb534819078141b6305b598e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-group-b-winner | Will Spain win Group B? | 58,418,582 | 58,418,582 |
ce1acd8552c20fe4ba812239bdcf8815715a4812 | 0x37465b25e9fb30a4e35f3b790393e82a1fff3c29 | 0x52e38da96361f0324678a5f23daa8b94f075b7ef0ab2affc70f1b729621180b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-spain-vs-italy | Will Spain win? | 58,418,582 | 58,418,582 |
152a8d97643daade3280674d835118a335cd04e0 | 0x37465b25e9fb30a4e35f3b790393e82a1fff3c29 | 0x468ee4c48ac454b4dd4392f8ec370eea32c3c9e9d2dbfc2547b712eb0b1939a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-turkey-vs-portugal | Will Portugal win? | 58,487,463 | 58,487,463 |
920b4ce904a5dc74a666bd61ca1cc3cc517ebe20 | 0x37465b25e9fb30a4e35f3b790393e82a1fff3c29 | 0xdd569a7ce6a80e8c8892f86d4e969fccfe3a5998a674a09f50c3605d3a4b467f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-group-f-winner | Will Portugal win Group F? | 58,487,463 | 58,487,463 |
ff30cf601a7f9217c7bad39cc9b533c9c8a0a404 | 0x37465b25e9fb30a4e35f3b790393e82a1fff3c29 | 0x6dfefed044dc8c2bbda7a036f641b5cbca4513ec3935387689482e65df7708ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-croatia-vs-italy | Will the match be a draw? | 58,568,926 | 58,568,926 |
7c50036e9dcff654c8cf8e74ce30c8b6501bb23f | 0x37465b25e9fb30a4e35f3b790393e82a1fff3c29 | 0xdaf4965d5c1997abcb917555e03408b761a88c834834e43db8e52cf9cbae2bf7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | euro-2024-croatia-vs-italy | Will Italy win? | 58,568,926 | 58,568,926 |
6c877613cad07dd21f0bd2ce99dc04fe3fded884 | 0x37465b25e9fb30a4e35f3b790393e82a1fff3c29 | 0x68005aadd48b8be729a102135eebd1e1b0425c49236bbcec11e25d5162a48165 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | biden-takes-drug-test-before-trump-debate | Biden takes drug test before Trump debate? | 58,702,164 | 58,702,164 |
49e38949ade7a5be92d142991045d66b7f420573 | 0x37465b25e9fb30a4e35f3b790393e82a1fff3c29 | 0x2872724760317eef3a1c4aa18b64ed3bf633bbdb656ec1fd34fd65b876672c5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-winner | Will Portugal win the 2024 Euros? | 59,010,005 | 59,010,005 |
b2ae19fc16879ec501c8ff3dedf8e021e1699819 | 0x37465b25e9fb30a4e35f3b790393e82a1fff3c29 | 0x0b9fabe8a5d2780bb4165a59e2add57b82d889166ce8469c49363b359920c40b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | kamala-vs-trump-polling-margin-on-august-9 | Will Harris lead by 0.5-0.9 points on August 9? | 60,393,128 | 60,393,128 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.