sample_id
stringlengths
40
68
wallet
stringlengths
42
42
market_id
stringlengths
66
66
split
stringclasses
1 value
system_prompt
stringclasses
1 value
input_text
stringlengths
215
15.3k
label_choice
stringclasses
913 values
label_confidence
float64
0
1
event_slug
stringlengths
7
120
question
stringlengths
8
164
stance_first_block
int64
30.2M
80M
stance_last_block
int64
30.6M
80M
c0db0f55f45c9783573a846fc9bed8ecb12b8e50
0x37465b25e9fb30a4e35f3b790393e82a1fff3c29
0x109087dfc63aa37cd4b1861921e49c4c1b8957ed3558c829e026be6e833cbcc2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1...
yes
1
kamala-vs-trump-polling-margin-on-august-9
Will Trump lead by 1-1.4 points on August 9?
60,395,046
60,395,046
2f95a147f73b2b1582f68e9229393b11f918f006
0x37465b25e9fb30a4e35f3b790393e82a1fff3c29
0x9f81cb3608a8ea3f658f2b47261f2822f18f10bdf0df22968beb634c283eea87
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1...
yes
1
kamala-vs-trump-polling-margin-on-august-9
Will Harris lead by 0.1-0.4 points on August 9?
60,395,046
60,395,046
4824e6aa2b97fd8b80e898feff6c9ae5f800b039
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x15ea42625b550355f307ceeea8aa53b07e8f4b795c7edb131775dff44eae13a5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will Italy win? Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
no
1
euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy
Will Italy win?
58,780,983
58,780,983
56e8e282f19c3f47bd48edd66fb15576c5712af1
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x72485d5bab346ef3b58ecc57062f04a4de01585e9720de5c09c6ecc7ed8fe07d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? Event: euro-2024-winner Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rati...
yes
1
euro-2024-winner
Will Italy win the 2024 Euros?
58,818,851
58,818,851
c4e2f5abbb747fefd64fad9cb1c0fdaef0c1cfb8
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x8291ff7c970197941d6702babe7c0146fa8fa1a0e8021d61076e647920da567c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will England Win? Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia Predict the user's cho...
no
1
euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia
Will England Win?
58,818,851
58,818,851
2237fab4fbbeb56dc7f97b726a755194ed5381e5
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xb8c948d61dfd1e2f545f684643c88dc638a6df026ee70c503611d9b1249c176c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 Ta...
yes
1
copa-america-2024-uruguay-vs-bolivia
Will Bolivia win?
58,818,851
58,818,851
104f33a764bfb9466abbe149c5bc37606e541a53
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xf9563ca493c9d8d614f07400def30bd9840383fa6035423d586221d6dcd73a04
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
1
euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia
Will Slovakia Win?
58,818,851
58,818,851
d69bc3c3f0047281a8536e106b1c55960e4e3423
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x25c6763e4521680ab39d61786577fb4b1af89e9d215be35c79ad1a060a21e11d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
0.926637
euro-2024-france-vs-belgium
Will the match be a draw?
58,854,166
58,854,166
838d4b0d19c938e8635c1bc7c93893e473ccc44a
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x3957407da9d55bde293a6fa8e62717dc050cd87f9c94863b578c00702a165893
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
1
euro-2024-portugal-vs-slovenia
Will Portugal win?
58,854,166
58,854,166
74b48d7e77ed9999e865b52c249cde01a693dcce
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x5ecf80fbf6b815b11c67f7df710494c03dc5b90aa0e879918cedbcf599ea346d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
1
euro-2024-france-vs-belgium
Will France win?
58,854,166
58,854,166
c2a0ed085d4b5f4efd45076364d4fa357c30e95a
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x633337ef48cd5d79c8f87bf3ee62072ed83519c692ee11c6a7dd910deb8571a5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
0.789411
euro-2024-france-vs-belgium
Will Belgium win?
58,854,166
58,854,166
b62b6ccede171a9ebe5af9371c72b78d4450efcf
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x6b945e23797043f997b2da0db05d63f16a7bbd18f741c72fb844a76fbf492305
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
1
euro-2024-portugal-vs-slovenia
Will the match be a draw?
58,854,166
58,854,166
7cba5637b3413fe1a6a46b38e010d244b4a5aca3
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xbefd92efcf7596d8b9af532e7a6f70e1c0f4d923eba83d97db6439e22317fe41
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
1
euro-2024-portugal-vs-slovenia
Will Slovenia win?
58,854,166
58,854,166
edd7d696cdeb61fa3ec56a9256505358c56112b8
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x85e3630dd8fffd8dde3d03fee10beb35858229f3db244ebf3d42205f1651b543
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
1
euro-2024-romania-vs-netherlands
Will Romania win?
58,883,065
58,883,065
a23b30ff49b07ffa19ef11162ec13548ca4e2c66
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x8e8cae51fd12958d6b4753eecd0868b23d63f35f79fbfc9b7aa0755b4e86d0cc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
1
euro-2024-romania-vs-netherlands
Will the match be a draw?
58,883,065
58,883,065
7053c48a24400d9a705822fd06a013bb724c3887
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xbda0d8353af0a94ad5bb2817a3d728c4ad48181cfa872c334ee6bced4535842c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
0.733707
euro-2024-romania-vs-netherlands
Will the Netherlands win?
58,883,065
58,883,065
3813c4bf914b736efc8d84db0f115a744056349a
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x5ef035d496419c8de2604b390751de6102aee81b05203b6fee3db5312244ffc8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
yes
1
euro-2024-austria-vs-turkey
Will Austria win?
58,900,106
58,900,106
7b9930d879019fdec870fdf0ebbb1edd7359ddca
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xe43706845fd3df3ab2bd41a4dc3fd4154fc5d1953a6ac0b96dff5506b7e6e5be
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
1
euro-2024-austria-vs-turkey
Will the match be a draw?
58,900,106
58,900,106
21e378e7a94bcd1207319d79f1418d645a61efc3
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x2a50cf762e53ddd52a0ad58815444feca5e22f5e24285c112d1e6dc2bb488ea7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
yes
1
uk-election-next-prime-minister
Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister?
58,995,723
58,995,723
720bdfbd05d96f98407952ffec24e778cadb82f9
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xbdf50fc90cd5155830c0b25fc8285d83bb74be3e3cc906fe5b0ddac2c91eeecf
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
yes
1
which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election
Conservatives win the second most seats in next UK election?
58,995,723
58,995,723
2d1ef5ce7edb6aee9704ea1794464d62f701c12f
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xef10f2283d100fac85abeda5ff2f5866169b8c389ab574abb43ab4abc0338333
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
1
euro-2024-top-scorer
Will Jamal Musiala be Euro 2024 top scorer?
59,026,232
59,026,232
6d02aec193b73f9f39ae6a15fe15d254fca4522d
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xfb919ad74a714edb12eff8b9ac4014831d092e5a1db6018e2c2c73ef559ca1ca
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
1
euro-2024-winner
Will Germany win the 2024 Euros?
59,026,232
59,026,232
d31c65b178589c5bee6f6c60ea5d466a6cb6388e
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x27a093d75d38af99d338d0efa45b64becb1881fb1355816228076dbe9689f2fc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
1
euro-2024-winner
Will Turkey win the 2024 Euros?
59,068,815
59,068,815
effa3c52bd65e080e0ee64d1bc6c2fa9cfd65f3c
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x433c8543ba40a240129348499daf2e8e81497fa04b0de931c1384cdc936a1f8c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
1
euro-2024-winner
Will France win the 2024 Euros?
59,180,821
59,180,821
09ece92272cafa6e75fad36c5b358b7732cc80f5
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x5048e2becd0687361a1bd17a1936d0dc0a80af126f920507923053831d82419c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
1
wimbledon-mens-champion
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon Men's?
59,180,821
59,180,821
42321a0030e603aaea2a72baef22c06edd2cad14
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x96189971bfd6342ca85ddecb000a2187f1c2f2c431fc08cf9a8998f6b15eeefd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
0.426363
euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england
Will the match be a draw?
59,220,911
59,220,911
3ef090f99f8ff3dc11f975897e8c84cb883e40d4
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xbad5c040f90e0802524588d975d5db28cf286542efb6e04ef1f7db3793953584
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
yes
1
copa-america-winner
Uruguay wins Copa America 2024?
59,220,911
59,220,911
4670f31e0513243d8b0927e6195eca59dc6d6480
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xc1763e94a3dcc967b6bb9ce60c907a30ed2d57088554612579bf8a42aa1ae009
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
1
euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england
Will Netherlands win?
59,220,911
59,220,911
0031b897b10271e4b78264f8d851a467cea9433a
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xfd78eed0f9bbb30b3a7f4194d472e9ae44eee5bf8a45877300a30b29eb53fb9a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
yes
1
euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england
Will England win?
59,220,911
59,220,911
d035bc480b0b62150d79fd0111a4d3403f6f67d4
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x1c27161c95cb6a3a1403641517c1d79e4e18431f75ad1a9bc1443193b1e1a246
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
yes
1
copa-america-winner
Argentina wins Copa America 2024?
59,381,589
59,381,589
bda1bfd9295cd53977f4cc4f8e8663e73f01b073
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x328a31a7a1f8444fcf10b467d2fa20f9eba3d900bda7db49695de8f7a20b1bb2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
1
euro-2024-player-of-the-tournament
Will Lamine Yamal be Player of the Tournament for Euro 2024?
59,381,589
59,381,589
8fc06045ca33f530c15e80ad6443f0b15bfa2e76
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x41f7d9b798b81f93046fa3f4248dbe1c28dbc65b30f115477ea194f49d7c66a7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
1
copa-america-winner
Colombia wins Copa America 2024?
59,381,589
59,381,589
c669481affed970ed01dc68d2b769b3972467e4d
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x6a204878bcde93c19faf2c7286e35c69c1d148f62f28c25c4a57981e8e5cd244
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 4. ...
no
1
euro-finals-how-will-the-game-end
Will Spain win in extra time?
59,381,589
59,381,589
1b70974a18b9853354f02587ffbc2aa34bac127f
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xa0a04d3947d7b66c606c57462b2ed57e09d5b00c635372bcb3a8f96543094c99
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Italy win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Bolivia win? | Event: copa-america-2024-uruguay-vs-bolivia | Choice: yes | Confidence...
no
0.638053
euro-2024-top-scorer
Will Harry Kane be Euro 2024 top scorer?
59,381,589
59,381,589
120d450109bd72d399d6b56086d82eb1d5be8f83
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xc1004a9860d275e14e9d89bc62ffb3dbbb627f87fb7f2032ccf2b33f4ed34c93
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Bolivia win? | Event: copa-america-2024-uruguay-vs-bolivia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slovakia Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence...
no
1
euro-2024-player-of-the-tournament
Will Dani Olmo be Player of the Tournament for Euro 2024?
59,381,589
59,381,589
4348c84a650140e4a69ef944ac6cd0b23600a55f
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xd972aeab1efc35bf4f67c47710677a49a2c716dab7f5a7288ee024e168613a86
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bolivia win? | Event: copa-america-2024-uruguay-vs-bolivia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Slovakia Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-france-vs-belgium | Choice: no | Conf...
no
1
euro-finals-how-will-the-game-end
Will England win in extra time?
59,381,589
59,381,589
b9c849462f74954803b854a56ce53fc0aecc9c0a
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xf335868bf0801bc21fc439fd375e883e3f65c015a75abc1bc87e18fa6b116dd2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Slovakia Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-france-vs-belgium | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9266374614194957 3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-slovenia | Choice: ...
no
1
euro-finals-first-goal-scorer
Will Harry Kane score the first goal?
59,381,589
59,381,589
a9df38c0a037ac5d0876435bff27b9fca59e6684
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x26231a84f566f07ed927b23011001883a247e7237099c00d091a7792e89b48a3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-france-vs-belgium | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9266374614194957 2. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-slovenia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-france-vs-belgium | Choice: no |...
no
1
euro-2024-player-of-the-tournament
Will Jude Bellingham be Player of the Tournament for Euro 2024?
59,381,594
59,381,594
64f87fe209fc77cabb131ad0cc49f06a997599e3
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x431302f9899593651cd36db963b894bc7b3d27c575e275a90500b84063057c1b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-slovenia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-france-vs-belgium | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro-2024-france-vs-belgium | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.78941074...
no
1
euro-finals-how-will-the-game-end
Will England win in 90 min?
59,381,594
59,381,594
e5bd3e7b674e29c7225ba2af5410fa1837ceb343
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x85264f5b3c37eae2677944081ae5e322d2b4009cce7fdbbdcc3d887fb45a8aab
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-france-vs-belgium | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro-2024-france-vs-belgium | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7894107411754 3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-slovenia | Choice: no | Con...
yes
1
euro-finals-first-goal-scorer
Will Phil Foden score the first goal?
59,381,594
59,381,594
53fe3b1ce81d2b8cf07fa4a7214e7777efec11ce
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x90571de1433d653e291c7c3fce91642e7197912d045574162844cfbcd3f03545
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro-2024-france-vs-belgium | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7894107411754 2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-slovenia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slovenia win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-slovenia | Choice: no ...
yes
1
euro-2024-player-of-the-tournament
Will Bukayo Saka be Player of the Tournament for Euro 2024?
59,381,594
59,381,594
61ff6534e42f8b39a8d47083aabd7ea016019f52
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x90dbcd0cf65fd0190bd463f4f429b5df2df51d6c916e350a4ed014d94b988935
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-slovenia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Slovenia win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-slovenia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Romania win? | Event: euro-2024-romania-vs-netherlands | Choice: no | Confi...
yes
1
euro-2024-winner
Will England win the 2024 Euros?
59,381,594
59,381,594
cca0b6246d9722d6469bd3d1aad43d2ec64308ad
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xcc8b7df9968a91b1fabc7763911e6079a5c65ebcf1e7faef0091304bd7512dd5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Slovenia win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-slovenia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Romania win? | Event: euro-2024-romania-vs-netherlands | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-romania-vs-netherlands | Choice: no | Con...
yes
0.999909
euro-2024-winner
Will another team win the 2024 Euros?
59,381,594
59,381,594
ffb3a23f72befce8fcd4d4cd03d31230a7b6974a
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x0317ed1eeb46a4f7b517925b61bbf94d8371ba45c58a0c2eb89d447e87aba711
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania win? | Event: euro-2024-romania-vs-netherlands | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-romania-vs-netherlands | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-romania-vs-netherlands | Choice:...
yes
1
republican-vp-nominee
Will another woman win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?
59,419,523
59,419,523
196425eb45b6a45dda6a3606ba9897e8e9469c84
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x6a031c4888fcfb886861d3616cce760ea284dbf46e355b197400c2b12a4c37a6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-romania-vs-netherlands | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-romania-vs-netherlands | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7337067392511059 3. Question: Will Austria win? | Event: euro-2024-austria-vs-turkey...
yes
1
republican-vp-nominee
Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?
59,419,523
59,419,523
953484f00a131ddaca9b142ea94490fc4f7211b5
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x8617f0ec3b1bb510d731572ef786a6349727878a446f033e5e16d080f5ffdeb9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-romania-vs-netherlands | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7337067392511059 2. Question: Will Austria win? | Event: euro-2024-austria-vs-turkey | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-austria-vs-turkey | C...
yes
0.999997
republican-vp-supplemental
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?
59,419,523
59,419,523
6b16b11b7ec31e22d8f610fad92d04e95d3f09fd
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x911d086ef50a087b694d40ffa105b8a384a3275aa66ff4fa66e55da1ff91f6b3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Austria win? | Event: euro-2024-austria-vs-turkey | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-austria-vs-turkey | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister ...
yes
1
republican-nominee-2024
Will Donald J. Trump win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?
59,419,523
59,419,523
c571dbf28b8b4d4fc24bf0c30f159efbe529705b
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xfda85d79dff5b52fee724505bb32f3301c8d58109cbc7ea6ecfb044a741da216
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-austria-vs-turkey | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Conservatives win the second most seats in next UK elec...
yes
1
republican-vp-supplemental
Will another candidate win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?
59,419,523
59,419,523
53655f585b356efc973d9b693a50a0b851e18bee
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x75a9197a2d8562d9af4ed0416c31310be044977b50f39245999195ae56923c0a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Conservatives win the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Questio...
yes
0.642859
tour-de-france-winner
Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2024 Tour de France?
59,670,028
59,670,028
a3413857f17c6372983c3d6db167827e25c970bf
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x9e9071636d176562592a98dfede865385ba0cff7864cfa01f0479ca6e9e26e1b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Conservatives win the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jamal Musiala be Euro 2024 top scorer? | Event: euro-2024-top-scorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Germa...
yes
1
democratic-nominee-2024
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
60,416,280
60,416,280
465edacd913a097bffed87a6f7001f3db9e7b95f
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x6cf8b2ebe77711ab5c32fac330b8d493640cf25d278fa98bf65ddcfcb891171e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Jamal Musiala be Euro 2024 top scorer? | Event: euro-2024-top-scorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Germany win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Turkey win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: no |...
no
1
champions-league-winner-2025
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?
72,226,215
72,226,215
07ba0f3a1d8b2d89338c4151b417817a5b364c93
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x7beceb04f7b1d4f0dde80b58c6f43c23b8ad54b21c693e172c974f480b46483c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Germany win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Turkey win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will France win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0...
yes
1
champions-league-winner-2025
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League?
72,226,215
72,226,215
94dad6357f7d64543ea8679310f43ce755aa927d
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xa6658afc37e5479fdf54f6a43c2fce50c9acc72aae9762e23f9d871912ac8a15
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Turkey win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon Men's? | Event: wimbledon-mens-champion | Choice: no | C...
yes
1
largest-company-end-of-may
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
72,226,215
72,226,215
0e8b20c5538f173ecaf2ca1fb49c27f7f0b648ca
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xea83b296e885289ac5a2491a3bbf57d0eef0245515a0d692f29b554bff2dde94
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will France win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon Men's? | Event: wimbledon-mens-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choi...
yes
1
lal-lev-rea-2025-09-23
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23?
76,841,483
76,841,483
a3b63a10325338b58d92f8c1f0f5a93fa166a0fa
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x8725f5d1b5282496676283084cb54be91fac2ba380d951178d953e78d0c0c5ed
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon Men's? | Event: wimbledon-mens-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.42636261707496886 3. Question: Uruguay wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-am...
no
1
2025-french-open-winner
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open?
76,848,394
76,848,394
eda927e25a3011a19bd4ca02fc0c189b189992f7
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xc265cd5fc793b391440de96cb3f4cd826ee889648c907e55694730d9cf0b5e65
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.42636261707496886 2. Question: Uruguay wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-eng...
yes
1
bitcoin-above-on-october-15
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 15?
77,725,072
77,725,072
457b66a824bd0383028a00a82a89eb90c2301baa
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xec86ff1ac56a721b2b226b7330bcc64906279608a525ee1c661eb8e12a4bee10
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Uruguay wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Con...
yes
1
bitcoin-above-on-october-15
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 15?
77,725,072
77,725,072
6699064072272470591c7c597e14461a154fd962
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xa6839f301ceb78e1ef86b653f021a4171e503dbc74f90987a64efbfab7cddc1b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will England win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | C...
no
0
bitcoin-above-on-october-16
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $126,000 on October 16?
77,753,682
77,753,682
6e6a8f982791a3e38aa00602219e3a511e9c416d
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xc6295eb825cf7bb0c625bbac3d1ace988450b7495ca75d1cf882409a75e07369
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will England win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Lamine Yamal be Player of the Tournament for Euro 2024? | Event: euro-2024-...
no
0
bitcoin-above-on-october-16
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 16?
77,753,682
77,766,962
7a13c87cf9cc338c20cb0a065b35b003c04686d0
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x7a65dba4ed0b79a425543872eeb491c3a88d447428349318db3a46c7b9139a91
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lamine Yamal be Player of the Tournament for Euro 2024? | Event: euro-2024-player-of-the-tournament | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Colombia wins Copa America 2024? | E...
no
0
bitcoin-above-on-october-17
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $126,000 on October 17?
77,753,682
77,810,070
93925241ac952f530d8069d134896838026696bb
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xed1b5c97ad0a40a1c0cdccea4a4047c4e3c06fc80f4c379f1d50b62da320c61b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Lamine Yamal be Player of the Tournament for Euro 2024? | Event: euro-2024-player-of-the-tournament | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Colombia wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Spain win in extra time? | Event:...
no
0.132738
bitcoin-above-on-october-17
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 17?
77,753,682
77,810,070
1e7b1ec76bbbc5ddadb2ef6402138fdb1ba54fb9
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x6f60575dd5f291035366298dedb7cdf643d069dbf0007ccd7ad08b55351a6b25
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Colombia wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Spain win in extra time? | Event: euro-finals-how-will-the-game-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Harry Kane be Euro 2024 top scorer? | Event: euro-2024-top-scorer...
no
0.12837
what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-october-985
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?
77,753,682
78,446,868
99f63e20b1638d996adee14cfdfae48bed7134c1
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x6eb634ba287bfb419b640d3d6dc342de475b0e4bac3c3c6a62bd3a785e105a72
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Spain win in extra time? | Event: euro-finals-how-will-the-game-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Harry Kane be Euro 2024 top scorer? | Event: euro-2024-top-scorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6380529898225372 3. Question: Will Dani Olmo be Player of the Tournament for...
yes
1
bitcoin-above-on-october-19
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 19?
77,897,338
77,897,338
4babbb840c5d054b17f15e358445ea2393fabaaa
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x2eb716af6de810d2ec2a5dafb4989d9ba926e111ad10186032eaa45c59a0e414
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Harry Kane be Euro 2024 top scorer? | Event: euro-2024-top-scorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6380529898225372 2. Question: Will Dani Olmo be Player of the Tournament for Euro 2024? | Event: euro-2024-player-of-the-tournament | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England win ...
yes
1
bitcoin-above-on-october-20
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 20?
77,939,989
77,939,989
b5e05b95a09a387d4cc932c51e621df019df05d1
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xfd5b92fa80dd64ea1d23518674bac0e598e6825f4064d9c1023bbc361f643158
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Dani Olmo be Player of the Tournament for Euro 2024? | Event: euro-2024-player-of-the-tournament | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will England win in extra time? | Event: euro-finals-how-will-the-game-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Harry Kane score the fi...
yes
1
bitcoin-above-on-october-20
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 20?
77,939,989
77,939,989
582d49ded557b26c881765f0d0a7065f240ec5dd
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x754b586c524bd58b5460bc199aef371ab428186ec66d7be7aecff156a61da8c2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will England win in extra time? | Event: euro-finals-how-will-the-game-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Harry Kane score the first goal? | Event: euro-finals-first-goal-scorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jude Bellingham be Player of the Tournament for ...
no
1
bitcoin-above-on-october-19
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 19?
78,014,614
78,014,614
c12792f5247f8a42829e7af4830e469aedce5eb7
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x4cd7f5c9265b2880c165d0e8f72f7f411b21e8dac61c112e7c5cc44786160ebe
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Harry Kane score the first goal? | Event: euro-finals-first-goal-scorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jude Bellingham be Player of the Tournament for Euro 2024? | Event: euro-2024-player-of-the-tournament | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England win in ...
no
1
bitcoin-above-on-october-22
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 22?
78,026,794
78,026,794
7aafc13a38e3de0edc786712583ec704becb75c4
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x6e09f294c8b5a8843dd2a5b9ab1ddfebff87d39240fc487ca260fb6ea946e61f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Jude Bellingham be Player of the Tournament for Euro 2024? | Event: euro-2024-player-of-the-tournament | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will England win in 90 min? | Event: euro-finals-how-will-the-game-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Phil Foden score the ...
no
0
bitcoin-above-on-november-8
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 8?
78,753,747
78,753,747
65eecae6ee0e472aa21476e60bd381d42ac95bef
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x234bd2733db8d0dae572c45fb5bcc5352e6a0eb4f8b903b8e14ac985667d49c4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will England win in 90 min? | Event: euro-finals-how-will-the-game-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Phil Foden score the first goal? | Event: euro-finals-first-goal-scorer | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Bukayo Saka be Player of the Tournament for Euro 20...
no
1
bitcoin-above-on-november-8
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 8?
78,753,747
78,767,871
b80e1680272019ef24d2cc139772a9be8977dd0f
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x974f7cfb7f590c83aeabea4cec31a16f7331c76b8ca33648b8dd03d4f1cd6a77
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Phil Foden score the first goal? | Event: euro-finals-first-goal-scorer | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Bukayo Saka be Player of the Tournament for Euro 2024? | Event: euro-2024-player-of-the-tournament | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England win the 2...
no
0
bitcoin-above-on-november-8
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 8?
78,753,747
78,767,871
4934d75fb6f4f556acfc3cdeee3656f2c52b512b
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x0d7370766a06b65165416c467dc75abdca8e305090c4e5b2119dffa3884f927b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bukayo Saka be Player of the Tournament for Euro 2024? | Event: euro-2024-player-of-the-tournament | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will England win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will another team win the 2024 Euros? | ...
yes
1
ethereum-above-on-november-14
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 14?
79,026,185
79,026,185
6bbbbdd3c18fa6695995bb7bbdd07e9916456229
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x29002e86dc9f159de5a9bacf5344d05c2d98a43b90a2faa67908c053519601b3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will England win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will another team win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999088436254175 3. Question: Will another woman win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event...
no
1
ethereum-above-on-november-14
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on November 14?
79,026,185
79,026,185
c03731d28f3cf954283f2a1c476dc3be57bbbf9f
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x21b6aa563d44f20908effbc87ee09331c5083faf1d3fd6581b71b37e6da4e3cd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will another team win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999088436254175 2. Question: Will another woman win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republic...
no
1
bitcoin-above-on-november-15
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 15?
79,071,301
79,071,301
eaf21e7492db964e9ea9a2171d8c99e3ea1df34a
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x0059b805dab215461b96df56df6189e592d2ddcc95fcf3641f320a2f05b5ed36
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will another woman win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Glenn Youngkin win the 20...
no
1
ethereum-above-on-november-16
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 16?
79,110,228
79,110,228
65ceb3a3cdde6da25f7b453b5840c992d90dbee4
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x9cd194c9acc85e81a7aa165c830bdc0e8129991785fc9a795b2fdcc13077b9d9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-supplemental | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999966932054675 3. Question: Will Dona...
no
1
ethereum-above-on-november-16
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on November 16?
79,110,228
79,110,228
27338da3bc1a981f7fa4b3bfe3aafe7c1182ff4f
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0xa8374d859884ff7cb31d8e417de3abcd2316a367eda10902a87cecfe1424e4bd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-supplemental | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999966932054675 2. Question: Will Donald J. Trump win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: republican-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. ...
yes
1
bitcoin-above-on-november-21
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 21?
79,324,382
79,324,382
720b9dd38aee97b05d93437ec5373de36c83b087
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x5996a00c6d9bc8ad1bb2272fb98db48a8e21e5b6c79d9a26df99ef035b3551a1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Donald J. Trump win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: republican-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-supplemental | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Wi...
no
0
bitcoin-above-on-november-26
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 26?
79,329,607
79,329,607
af9f36204a506085ef25d31f8a90743443b94702
0x3759f73bb9418b038efdbed6545163b169f36b3b
0x87e80b0ac29524c9aa5bfec99de6fc0d0e51cf2fe23cfdc588546364b488c5b5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-supplemental | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2024 Tour de France? | Event: tour-de-france-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6428589030631104 3. Question: Will Kamala...
no
0
ethereum-above-on-november-24
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 24?
79,329,607
79,329,607
5877935c635dbd6cc1a26f891b69a4985e2d1e96
0x3764b2b96f8264b3bde5ab2902b29c1550c9e02a
0x7b30559109e5a8edb0aea12bf209e7242328d0f650a876dfb39b0d5e5d345160
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
yes
1
epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09
Will Man City win on 2024-11-09?
78,497,385
78,497,385
3c076f34c0c1338f970b87a32e1329cbf1437de3
0x3764b2b96f8264b3bde5ab2902b29c1550c9e02a
0x9fba222b5d877bc93ce93cdcf37dd946b65c4d0a6f45ec22c42938f0de9f9ff0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? Event: tur-iba-koc-2025-10-31 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: ...
yes
1
tur-iba-koc-2025-10-31
Will Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw?
78,497,385
78,497,385
5d473ca831bf3e9ae0cefcac2c4b98128425b6e0
0x3764b2b96f8264b3bde5ab2902b29c1550c9e02a
0xd4b8becf948ec2a8cee806a80f3a7b3d39a65bf73b175deee1aa1ca890b98533
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? | Event: tur-iba-koc-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United F...
yes
1
aus-auc-ade-2025-11-01
Will Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?
78,497,385
78,497,385
b4222e7eeaf7be59ff0d48f08b2c801e8e2d4be1
0x3764b2b96f8264b3bde5ab2902b29c1550c9e02a
0x363c66d135fc0e85eb83207275d8891120af6a82237e2117d5c0ae3554923207
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? | Event: tur-iba-koc-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a dr...
yes
1
lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02
Will Levante UD vs. Celta Vigo end in a draw?
78,511,971
78,511,971
c0d389d4cf9cb00dd572d3fb981d9cf92c306bc7
0x3764b2b96f8264b3bde5ab2902b29c1550c9e02a
0x648087110d9eeed1eb2bd36580e136e9a1b715417357997596462a8dfd2cd48d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? | Event: tur-iba-koc-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a dr...
yes
1
lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02
Will Levante UD win on 2025-11-02?
78,511,971
78,511,971
91cef4bc828aef33da58dc5cd22fb0bbad080a36
0x3764b2b96f8264b3bde5ab2902b29c1550c9e02a
0x64eff25ed5a31955cb1d031b75ed140f1396acf1457710c59c49ca04c9a1969d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? | Event: tur-iba-koc-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a dr...
yes
1
ere-utr-nec-2025-11-02
Will FC Utrecht vs. NEC end in a draw?
78,511,971
78,511,971
60c20de16dc3e54a89af4ddb4d9e66996c619012
0x3764b2b96f8264b3bde5ab2902b29c1550c9e02a
0xccae652bf7f866fbd0ff7542906a94f045b798b640126f1276b9979311868e72
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? | Event: tur-iba-koc-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a dr...
yes
1
sea-tor-pis-2025-11-02
Will Pisa SC win on 2025-11-02?
78,511,971
78,511,971
df5ccb8e56abedd409e5848ad1a28b5da63e0b7c
0x3764b2b96f8264b3bde5ab2902b29c1550c9e02a
0xffc6cefc89f0fc4bec26affaf0f5e89cc6d759c19e45f9c56ac6f5b5c8694192
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? | Event: tur-iba-koc-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a dr...
yes
1
ere-spa-az-2025-11-02
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs. AZ end in a draw?
78,511,971
78,511,971
ac6eaccb0384382a86fc7397015da8f0f071340d
0x3764b2b96f8264b3bde5ab2902b29c1550c9e02a
0x9696eac9c7513d62f4da136ea7714389da0808f4367521f824c530192bc30dcf
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? | Event: tur-iba-koc-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a dr...
yes
1
ucl-nap-fra-2025-11-04
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-04?
78,600,820
78,600,820
cc46bf3e7851660adb8933b06218ccedf11950d2
0x3764b2b96f8264b3bde5ab2902b29c1550c9e02a
0xacf800381bfda39c81ec1466629f5d82f3ee27aa26acd85de78aae7cd1a43442
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? | Event: tur-iba-koc-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a dr...
yes
1
ucl-nap-fra-2025-11-04
Will SSC Napoli vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?
78,600,849
78,600,849
c6e41a4bc4f2fb26ed73d9ab859e67fa8987a79e
0x3764b2b96f8264b3bde5ab2902b29c1550c9e02a
0x767021bbdce0929174218184774e9365c2738e52cfc7b9f4c2d952ee7146bd82
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? | Event: tur-iba-koc-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a dr...
yes
1
spl-fay-okh-2025-11-07
Will Al Okhdood SC win on 2025-11-07?
78,730,245
78,730,245
7957964ad9fec715f4382b11ef13602dcd507a90
0x3764b2b96f8264b3bde5ab2902b29c1550c9e02a
0x88937a168d6f96900c30e3687d8a840296ec2d27fb70e6dd2c35293f835873cf
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? | Event: tur-iba-koc-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a dr...
yes
1
spl-fay-okh-2025-11-07
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC end in a draw?
78,730,245
78,730,245
5dd3f39e5836163c1fc477173023b86786aa6a4e
0x3764b2b96f8264b3bde5ab2902b29c1550c9e02a
0x8f8783bdabdd500dc401caddd12fea4bfae91543a8ea4458fc38e0539ffd3cb9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? | Event: tur-iba-koc-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a dr...
yes
1
when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?
78,973,573
78,973,573
f2d586e3f5a44e532264bf231b2ddb2a08b4c753
0x3764b2b96f8264b3bde5ab2902b29c1550c9e02a
0x2edfbd82507f366128f83ff52e982ff49005a5380d1e7540cb2c959552af2adf
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? | Event: tur-iba-koc-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a dr...
yes
1
caf-nga-gab-2025-11-13
Will Nigeria vs. Gabon end in a draw?
78,983,376
78,983,376
4ec8277c4b79bfb772c7df533015866f549f503f
0x3764b2b96f8264b3bde5ab2902b29c1550c9e02a
0xe0ac1721e7c04288e1e4c275ed58a9921b000ad621678e4dbc2e87ab48ea059b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? | Event: tur-iba-koc-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a dr...
yes
1
fif-hkg-cam-2025-11-13
Will Hong Kong SAR vs. Cambodia end in a draw?
78,983,376
78,983,376
9b2b3f3a40c7e6624af0afcd4bb9c1bed112ccbd
0x3764b2b96f8264b3bde5ab2902b29c1550c9e02a
0x4bcb2c1a03c2380c74d449aee1a09e46f5a96791cad0ce39147f3117451042a1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? | Event: tur-iba-koc-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a dr...
yes
1
fif-ban-afg-2025-11-13
Will Bangladesh win on 2025-11-13?
79,038,152
79,038,152
58f7a9b8d247fb43e14977d2e52ece37f6d891d8
0x377cfb0e187499348c56b005199c16a0903d91ae
0x6880627d60c1c1b4831ff77628892550a1cba0166c0fe1f4af32e486487d499a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-08? Event: epl-tot-che-2024-12-08 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
no
1
epl-tot-che-2024-12-08
Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-08?
65,255,137
65,255,137
db6347fa5016d449eafdc4b21bdcf1b532a2ae77
0x377cfb0e187499348c56b005199c16a0903d91ae
0x7163f98615e577c3220ce47ea37460a544b52384194495f319d5ab943aabfc75
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-tot-che-2024-12-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? Event: epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confid...
yes
1
epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08
Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08?
65,255,272
65,255,272
e768ce6f1bd6d9f0eff9c74eaec7606bf26ac7cf
0x377cfb0e187499348c56b005199c16a0903d91ae
0xa6ed954e535c70952bce0c0bd35f2169f04793e6b5eb0178b527e4e75f68044f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-tot-che-2024-12-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-08? Event: epl-tot-che-2024-12-08...
yes
1
epl-tot-che-2024-12-08
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-08?
65,255,272
65,255,272
8dd207484ad14bcfc35cf39c6cca9f124c585bba
0x377cfb0e187499348c56b005199c16a0903d91ae
0x4427d9f13eaf75b9f35c9481ea08ef99b76f7ed8261a2b3cca0606c431e01c9d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-tot-che-2024-12-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-tot-che-2024-12-08 | Choice: ...
yes
1
ucl-losc-lille-vs-sturm-graz
Will LOSC Lille beat Sturm Graz?
65,388,498
65,388,498
f349a487d510731556dcf215e43c753e0b3cc5f7
0x377cfb0e187499348c56b005199c16a0903d91ae
0x902ef0c73176bb65aad202fb94dd2d356bcfac9e913c5eb03b1405e6d71ee889
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-tot-che-2024-12-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-tot-che-2024-12-08 | Choice: ...
yes
1
europa-league-viktoria-plzen-vs-manchester-united
Will Manchester United beat Viktoria Plzen?
65,454,329
65,454,329
f0b8fb75ec47bf7a9c6aa0d18d606e9cbf60a255
0x377cfb0e187499348c56b005199c16a0903d91ae
0x0e0a7c30f4b09fb3cfa7a1de331577a1d4e28637ee31421c387a0a9389706659
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-tot-che-2024-12-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-tot-che-2024-12-08 | Choice: ...
no
1
epl-liv-ful-2024-12-14
Will Fulham win on 2024-12-14?
65,498,949
65,498,949