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int64
30.6M
80M
b8b87179cd3e91631fa315ea05c989d3349373ee
0x377cfb0e187499348c56b005199c16a0903d91ae
0x9f49a004c854ada068c1ffe4cdd189433b698d258e2cb7f357f3e5b7203e6936
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Czechia win on 2025-09-05? | Event: uef-mon-cze-2025-09-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel win on 2025-09-05? | Event: uef-mol-isr-2025-09-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-05? | Event: uef-ukr-fra-2025-09-05 | Choice: no | ...
no
1
epl-cry-liv-2025-09-27
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27?
76,988,140
76,988,140
93e79492c2c5574ef78fa8d66768337b04f5149e
0x377cfb0e187499348c56b005199c16a0903d91ae
0xbf870b3e94201dc40752203336e8cc9894dda68e53f39cefed2c01e971fc2f75
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Israel win on 2025-09-05? | Event: uef-mol-isr-2025-09-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-05? | Event: uef-ukr-fra-2025-09-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Switzerland win on 2025-09-05? | Event: uef-che-kvx-2025-09-05 | Choice: n...
no
1
epl-lee-bou-2025-09-27
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-09-27?
76,988,140
76,988,140
1a5cd18a45b2919d3763b7d3622834a1ee937abe
0x377cfb0e187499348c56b005199c16a0903d91ae
0xd1c22676bbae4bbe809d8a561b6e3010d1717bf7fc059d9cbe6d3e74597a540f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-05? | Event: uef-ukr-fra-2025-09-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Switzerland win on 2025-09-05? | Event: uef-che-kvx-2025-09-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Hungary win on 2025-09-06? | Event: uef-ire-hun-2025-09-06 | Choice: ...
no
1
epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27?
76,988,140
76,988,140
617adae5a44c881973959188f3a6a79dc40199b1
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0x2f3c542e218f5a7fc8eac6e1f800f03f91ca18d0e44d7566352eee3ef00c1330
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
over
0.420798
nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30
Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5
79,721,770
79,723,617
ee40343a0cafcc8356df0375c191135b99695854
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0xe962ad240e3bd76e8ee4895a33a47a33416eed2cf199410441fa199bf3592497
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 Target market: Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choic...
over
0
nba-sas-min-2025-11-30
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5
79,725,084
79,725,084
cf86abba384cfe7d34f55073e68b32810b5e5f10
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0xa83a496538eec021e21de4cd1d370c59a6c97399f3787bee69e4b49e91f32c76
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 Target market: Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 Event: nba-no...
under
0.213551
nba-nop-lal-2025-11-30
Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5
79,727,803
79,728,156
f129e988723ca84196a5e608dd43898a2a194fbe
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0x9d72fba957d07cee1a5a6d1dbdb805d317341e9385dd4fd26ab902092aa83017
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
over
0.00287
nba-mem-sac-2025-11-30
Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 230.5
79,727,926
79,728,500
8bac120a976d6d4d1135c334633e986180cb8e6d
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0xb6dbe24384c4dbe8eacdec90aa357f88a234395fbe41a7cf7471b062a7c534ff
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
over
0.270794
nba-atl-det-2025-12-01
Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5
79,766,981
79,768,398
76589181486c989527f2616aa5ce7c1d5f97e03e
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0xd7b3a4e1d005a8e2a8db5a2a3ac032a7e22d0c10b9a8e5d8b293a6ece3f9298b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
under
0.012102
nba-mil-was-2025-12-01
Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5
79,767,436
79,767,436
823344be5fd0b2766ce74e1481f768f6f84ef0ab
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0xa1f4280f2e461a3dd47837ffb079f66db51765fc8101ddff693c85e37cd2dc65
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
under
0.144208
nba-lac-mia-2025-12-01
Clippers vs. Heat: O/U 235.5
79,768,579
79,768,579
3d7df9f7cb3ec7f37f11e2ed65fc85edea020106
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0x49bd26993f6330c831358fbb0e845217f98f854edcb1ee82887ebb2e88780ff7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
over
0.333333
nba-cha-bkn-2025-12-01
Hornets vs. Nets: O/U 227.5
79,768,948
79,768,948
9fbdc27b9d0f50ff6a254f8541849f94a309d85c
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0xaaf48a51b3322118f4d5dd8ff3955172f078411f432cfe0a6f97407b8310a1cd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
over
0.000012
nba-dal-den-2025-12-01
Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5
79,770,818
79,771,064
fc6b119426f8ca4d7b3de35109571b92a98e1d03
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0x8687ae248199b5c5730d60e09503187529a9d22632a63805a18867474adfe1dc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
over
0.081056
nba-was-phi-2025-12-02
Wizards vs. 76ers: O/U 234.5
79,811,563
79,811,563
19b5011ad55de94f2ceac7e4d6ea8dc7e17d451a
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0x0c501f154c366d2a6294c2720e69dc493d9819707f3ff4f77a223caea3b4760a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
over
0
nba-mem-sas-2025-12-02
Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5
79,813,627
79,819,214
74547cbf6ef12ced1822ec88a4c07408ed661048
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0x57bdcfdfd88025f117b0aef8ac2cd196d1d1840ac02e790da72e8315cbf6055e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
over
0
nba-okc-gsw-2025-12-02
Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5
79,818,654
79,818,822
e7570debc47dea5db337e94b7e36614c3eb4c650
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0x7e8ae39109197112464a6e86227fca268e5213851f5c930525551000adc49d81
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
over
0.131879
nba-lac-atl-2025-12-03
Clippers vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5
79,854,297
79,855,637
90b53f0d79666a6d7690cc135ff1dfb82f410c13
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0x6fba06a322c4c19a0f2c31106b23c67d5d672221b6b0e52ce39a2b01da029e0f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
under
0.239544
nba-den-ind-2025-12-03
Nuggets vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5
79,854,931
79,854,931
5a2a5605b08486d61035581a62cb4c06943f2602
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0x3d3e6a79337c213efed9266c1f296733af3fca79e2e1dceb6d7e12270c649114
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
over
0.000005
nba-det-mil-2025-12-03
Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5
79,855,544
79,856,776
c679475d4e2e300f77d01d4a4bbd25c3a0ddf81f
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0xddaa305e6c70bab256c24b2667fb156bedd06c47a739469ce73d57153d559170
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
over
0.000027
nba-bkn-chi-2025-12-03
Nets vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5
79,855,921
79,855,921
dd901dfff09eb8d6e7c4019cda1014185491ac0e
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0x11132c27828a66393928c3aca9ce4420d9f3abe0f143ecec3cd49b6a8d8e0f2a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
over
0.954087
nba-sac-hou-2025-12-03
Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 231.5
79,856,340
79,856,340
09938c3350bd761bfa79225e7da170fb9e760d13
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0xe89f59cf51942652f5e3ecfe801f16ceab1b6d59b9917d0af9e15dfe86adf743
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
over
0.428571
nba-mia-dal-2025-12-03
Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5
79,857,401
79,857,401
b03f318ad78645ef21e8d11e84498a78e329fac1
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0x27c91225c2ca662587c208ca1beca535e4c44410bded7e5b6238a86c58f27398
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
under
0.37227
nba-bos-was-2025-12-04
Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5
79,895,717
79,897,311
eaaec6e19cc76323a2d06849adf395c5550d947b
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0xdbe3666c50a7912758cf88e02c452f270f44e79cef7521b5c5fdfb90c8fcc5ab
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
over
0.19112
nba-gsw-phi-2025-12-04
Warriors vs. 76ers: O/U 223.5
79,896,588
79,898,419
cd2bbd3683f5d9b96bd338673be5560b22a672b1
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0x925aa7484b8fb8210233093acbeafdd84f4d8b12f0b6b69df87a70493875c300
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
under
0.094809
nba-lal-tor-2025-12-04
Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5
79,897,862
79,898,481
4764f0d22d4632b40c07a0a5137ca938f3e70e68
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0xfce66d3807001f5bccdf44901ff39b770810f3a81d44e77adb72a2effe9e0038
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
under
0.232995
nba-uta-bkn-2025-12-04
Jazz vs. Nets: O/U 232.5
79,899,146
79,899,242
4dd77d7b912b3e81f33996acc8d22714c2e4d765
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0xbf1861eccf0f155000b497b9bf2b88048b7550220ab2ba40c04e30ddf5dc95a4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
over
0
nba-min-nop-2025-12-04
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5
79,899,430
79,915,005
5d3e7961b6460e6aea40e554898ba6c02621f726
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0xe1dee0a5018f28334677d1af299b071618743238999543a1eab5886fdcf9b851
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
under
0.000793
nba-uta-nyk-2025-12-05
Jazz vs. Knicks: O/U 240.5
79,940,637
79,941,832
7459040b4f6528e60534cc2102016a1f614225b6
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
0x18bc4aefa101e2f709b7e7e615b226c1a4de787e31d198e1484185ee54f1ce33
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | Event: nba-tor-nyk-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.42079763579273405 2. Question: Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 | Event: nba-sas-min-2025-11-30 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 | Event: nba-nop-lal-2025-...
under
0.000025
nba-sas-cle-2025-12-05
Spurs vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5
79,941,061
79,941,953
45b80fcf8bf63ac4d8988196d7333bb29e918e1f
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xaef7c5675e38c20effef3e75d6dcaf7cc79c1fe3da121f44fa9c4385d8b7cd6b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET
76,565,562
76,565,585
89d55952da49d023e872dd8d5c3a3c13f53e2e49
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x71c59992957ad1383cd7e7e8a1e1b083655547674c62063bedf40bf248881f02
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 Target market: Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET
76,588,111
76,589,264
565a60f25b4d4da42dc30a3fd71c748f1c78811a
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x15b02b5a92e9117f2edc8eca8c5880b2fe431e2e785e01e9b4d3407752ca91a9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 Target market: Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-2am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 2AM ET
76,589,733
76,589,936
0361219b6796c9a1fcbf44a9e70d82e3a8d9f143
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xefb0613603b12d5c579b55aed01687e905e6a17458189fc49244e495d3dee5db
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-21-1am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 1AM ET
76,710,299
76,830,019
9e249341d73e58b3b9739e59b8be89613e7f8e42
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x4e897e2bceab5510ac975ca835c26f470d3dd408e9e51ab47c7b9d9f5e4b3886
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0.000001
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-21-9pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 9PM ET
76,744,246
76,744,246
6a417af3c4e49e5eca9da9006c9f961c44177f30
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x1245fa5b94d7013e858874ecf518466364935a53e69c06d19f35d8aa866f914a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-23-6am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 6AM ET
76,799,692
76,803,458
80fc177eda04e90cbc0faf73fe65d4c34cebd39e
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x44107968e4e24295eaa99c92b2995576a0a0aaf217dd41a241aab5208aa5a91c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0.000008
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-23-8am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 8AM ET
76,803,319
76,803,614
063b4d36f17bec0a7a99cf318fd119d5db91bf56
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x78e9452e76ffdacde27cbb5e6b53aa4a3f56ef15efe073a850123f2d68836426
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-23-7am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 7AM ET
76,803,614
76,830,019
fd7918b8175701601b336dbcc411fc47c178f7af
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x7df5384a5abe13e2f4587cb8f567df9eb393672b1ca23053ace6b4333e917a09
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-23-9am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 9AM ET
76,804,720
76,830,019
2bd1250714ec8f3c680b940d699edd27b4034b26
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xc96938c46dffcfe4980cb4fb2c35c01b8aa5a94a4f0f9ee8d11b61d4025c78da
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
solana-up-or-down-september-23-3pm-et
Solana Up or Down - September 23, 3PM ET
76,814,675
76,815,606
5236703d0ce765b368d0576cc46c24cd69ad94f8
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xc1d41a9dae85b5f488e6b06a2feb20a74000408108163abb47eb245fc8c1711d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
solana-up-or-down-september-23-4pm-et
Solana Up or Down - September 23, 4PM ET
76,816,043
76,830,019
6999e41c3d3ee1808c1827a2568bf515ece127b5
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xa7f3008074cf72d725888b706f648e01a1259b8cf265ba65f2b4a5630b55ae32
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
solana-up-or-down-september-23-5pm-et
Solana Up or Down - September 23, 5PM ET
76,817,716
76,830,019
aadcee1630757cb7ae677f7f7562ca44849896f1
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xcf199088732dd787d193bb9d03a2f30469ade3743b2b62861ff6500fbcbed218
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-11am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 11AM ET
76,888,442
76,893,111
a6d1475786459c964e3f3ecdf5e43254d7eeaede
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xae56093191935a4ce10b955852ee779ba2e5729838e688744c161bcb541ef9ec
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-10am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 10AM ET
76,888,468
76,888,468
cb18c9dbb6935f7ef4ad3f7b7467be3ae329ac8c
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x573f6e467b588ad15970f2ff23701bf49427c423a65379a0556e8de9331455f7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-12pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 12PM ET
76,890,335
76,890,335
378584d7a74dcbcda8777968d9e0681c5c2f0c40
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x05bf3022ca8fc9a61460624fa696ea86b06d0fe242482374ce442d2bb8affd62
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-2pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 2PM ET
76,893,576
76,896,777
e4c023b0f38a482494666f7f5d5bf1b9a2cad0ed
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x28a4784e180478309c0783df4318b4d41608a8e45ef959803e5c922ff6a08719
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
up
0.000286
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-3pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3PM ET
76,896,129
76,896,129
c66702e1e705b336a61f9fe05fd16ad2b7e3ef5c
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x0790caf1fdc5d3da5c2e61a4c0fa5267fe398b2345f8892ff10750db36026378
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0.000002
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-4pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 4PM ET
76,897,100
76,898,213
336a8dbef17002abe870ad8094796a756a0d3a90
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xb4829bf03312597915f24efbe2a7d5b178f9d0da21c7175bb21254fdd01a06e5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
up
0.000005
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-5pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 5PM ET
76,898,554
76,900,750
2cee35d7d52ed1a20a956d9c9443460c60fa4bf1
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x72a24f0f0b8c68836683f5201a83d277f22b0a19489ce6994e10357cabad7b7a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-26-3am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 3AM ET
76,915,803
76,916,323
4b949c0205418e8132b3388bba5c2d3f10a05b53
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x3a49b8c9a5e90093db9049c828f320d4179a67ba808f91afc329f185db6c4686
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0.000028
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-4am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4AM ET
77,079,491
77,080,048
4db78d64971991650e1304047713a0483e835344
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xbff69f6fda6ccae772eb40dd6e7d8b98c073e6aaae7cdcd50bc63f89b7a4511d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0.000035
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-5am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5AM ET
77,081,673
77,081,673
0b9e8de459e354fc0aca1496e96e985defbfc643
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x02d24a87652b25ab52d63dbd543d98338bfd7d3a49a5c8e3eb974fe53fdf9c0b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0.000046
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-8am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 8AM ET
77,086,647
77,086,867
54cf1c9e762fb83026aa49dda2f869ec99fc2692
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x0ead3e8f24adda9b98684f1c24fceceeafc0142a646d32e65b74baf1f61aa6a6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-9am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9AM ET
77,087,714
77,092,905
c3ec81ad97ef37cdfb4abfd983675f8a5708dc03
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x09f2878fc16cc3aebcb9eea0bcf7a090a579158133560cc0a0300e85ec507ec8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-10am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10AM ET
77,090,075
77,092,905
8efb3f75a5d04df626d6d650cff843b499c6e23d
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xa89cd4d5b3f26dcce01cd0cd5bb379c2651300ca09c09232afa61d769d74123b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0.000039
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-11am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11AM ET
77,091,030
77,092,816
16f215ad28c34974a1aed76a2d43f28e8e82ef8f
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x4f591e6c4aa266185aa93e0cecd4e57448c2102f707e0c1c424ac61ed61bed4c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
up
0.000023
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-2pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2PM ET
77,096,193
77,097,038
28bbb44916353b01f20e44948b9db2da4a1d1b42
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xd090f9b187430bc5cb45a0004edf16dd84b1c9ea35eb5989f921a866912f4965
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-3pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3PM ET
77,097,633
77,097,633
84b84cb8404f0574bad686b2313513998c7f5ab1
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x49ab6b267b42c752fafff20d9ed6d3253235e9402787947cf4423d100a26cd6a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-12am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12AM ET
77,112,855
77,113,310
feebf98bb410764630a6ad044b29437c422548f6
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x1cfe055026f0b3a54e2514eea971fea38e6b9462b9f1ee781c75ddabdd8deb0d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0.00001
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-1am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 1AM ET
77,114,708
77,115,732
66c35bca3296292bc9489c5a35edb707b8b477e3
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x1b2a80f9d5db1933808313217ed8f6b3785f5969dca2a8bc1fc49e1c97c55cea
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0.189223
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-2am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 2AM ET
77,117,052
77,117,052
f6c56ed2db72774026664b808dafe549b0bf7ae9
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xc5f20882022175831bfc538af995f20938cd4d42730e560283490d8d4a73ba63
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-7am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7AM ET
77,124,906
77,128,372
1de8aed6b43d7aba24c0b9600b987a987f035dc9
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xda68f50aa76d91ae48af09d065451770c2f89dfd55112ce4267271cb623f0b94
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-21-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0.000002
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-8am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8AM ET
77,126,711
77,127,439
cb6d2c7b50cbfc8826edea2cb5fd0e3a15e6f6cb
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x6d2039ac7f2578067e96210dc1c93a24398d9cb22a0c65f38492aa22feb783e6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-21-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-21-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.649992517756472e-07 3. Question: Bit...
up
0.000002
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-9am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9AM ET
77,128,417
77,129,331
2caa1ccb85aa603a03036bb2f7311670f1c60e11
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xafc6d857b697e19138686267e39bda35b4be618a1179938045fc30f503ba7adb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-21-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.649992517756472e-07 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-23-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bit...
up
0.000005
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-10am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10AM ET
77,129,822
77,130,315
fa4be40d7bf9c243f8d95026c6a7f8298b33f2e6
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x7cf7f33c24681342c8a42497657c302052c1be75da39a9b4ba034d196c8adc61
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-23-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-23-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.444186378305766e-06 3. Question: Bit...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-11am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11AM ET
77,131,667
77,140,020
fb76a75defb79a860a77af2703df3bedc2ab6374
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xd1b33a9e1527c0007b6011b9e6cf6354e035f6505684476187a2143732559505
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-23-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.444186378305766e-06 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-23-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bit...
down
0.000113
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-4pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4PM ET
77,140,151
77,141,588
4ebd0042e4112c8fe73c31da9286c0e264144704
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x489539bf0beaae60a541122a4e9839c2a416cc35bc3835ace3c9226b6daa87e6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-23-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-23-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Solana Up or Down - S...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-5pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5PM ET
77,142,266
77,147,248
82508970a053b9909c0f5c0d35656d1efc7c1342
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x97ee31a150464d49b858948840e1120cb90a1507e50c88c74b1097e5a6450b35
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-23-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 23, 3PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-23-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Solana Up or Down - Sep...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-8pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8PM ET
77,147,298
77,147,936
16e7baf6138cbe9e150107f4b81cf85c113a03ab
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xc16b160087c8bfb997d6e9afcf87ebde6d29c4730376d9be100e97a3327d31c1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 23, 3PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-23-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 23, 4PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-23-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Solana Up or Down - Septe...
down
0.000004
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-11pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11PM ET
77,153,048
77,154,535
46ae0a66d0dda3c58edb3f0669d7ed7e84a42099
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xe9c0774b42bbd52f43790f2b02e51c33cc6550ffcc6546a998cc6d368721f48a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 23, 4PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-23-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 23, 5PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-23-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Sept...
up
0.000652
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-1am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1AM ET
77,155,451
77,156,842
a274573f6f3e49faaaa6273c58cab76d66a074c6
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x16ffb7f82d35a9e28e316c7282e0d766850f209ca761681028b26e51d85e32fb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 23, 5PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-23-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-2am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2AM ET
77,157,421
77,161,925
a2815391eb97ee4e206f4ea4c6263dfb95aab16c
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xc31b844dc01b0ddd811e9b2b1dec624d93ed86aa25ebe06da964e7dd8048258c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Dow...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-3am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 3AM ET
77,158,873
77,160,230
976892159f1598680921c08d0678e370565af652
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xb8f55bcb56e1301df17e361dbd084650460716fa791b4e3803a1a016e11d7c3c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Dow...
up
0.000009
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-4am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4AM ET
77,160,358
77,161,726
a3401cb88bd313eb201a19f21be3f91749c88ae7
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xfb8aefe7baa14a4dac2c3757b38f4f5a718b721f70d72d2f890914170b3bc68d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ...
up
0.000008
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-5am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5AM ET
77,162,000
77,163,618
dd8f109f8c1e9c3fabfa27bcc588f7863a0f2893
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xcb9a3d7c047ff3495985aa9a1798dadbf95112a5a7571212e0ad79bae86d7c97
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0002864632776572024 3. Question: Bitco...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-6am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6AM ET
77,163,730
77,165,222
9916d96f7079533d40243908b3a5851f45986580
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x8abdd6edc50dcc5a8b02d2207628f0036f64b180908829732378f82cf553a119
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0002864632776572024 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.0138397318164406e-06...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-7am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 7AM ET
77,165,792
77,166,639
256aa6207ab8711528d3d43b53d507cb66aa054d
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x8ef71e71164763561edce2adddcdbf90da639cbfe5f91e207da69878d7fe43f6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.0138397318164406e-06 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-5pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 4.7735984127257625e-0...
up
0.000015
ethereum-up-or-down-october-2-8am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 8AM ET
77,167,107
77,167,107
21831db6e84a7ac10d75fa00364adec2f4a26306
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x15a57c2c9e569fa70cb88d5dcabf8cd8b95f2fc96a65cf071ddd2265650912d9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-25-5pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 4.7735984127257625e-06 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-26-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitc...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-8am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8AM ET
77,167,187
77,171,710
30b1cd22a429b85f70ca83f50a2466c763c3999c
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x012518cf85da0d272dba7afedf47e76dad5790090fcbd1f42a9c575bc1d382e5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-26-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.8387825002576872e-05 3. Question: Bi...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-9am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9AM ET
77,169,393
77,170,393
1bf59e1d0cda71aca5955388e1fa484a8a7fd91b
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xe6ec1d74134c90b43881bcec123b7ccc47f5a519e982fa1f307737d704145c80
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.8387825002576872e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.4924688042671184e...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-10am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10AM ET
77,170,903
77,171,716
473435fede28d632101f7a238f80368f03cf55fc
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x80716dec49028770d30d8d3574d825822597d647b8938be18b5f669428335a2e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.4924688042671184e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 4.615839561995376e-...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-11am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 11AM ET
77,172,477
77,181,888
4b19552160c7734d7ebbdab89b38ac3904772a37
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x10d5888f486d6cca808a87f70f583029f05d448cc30dd3da6a1cbdc7a391d40d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 4.615839561995376e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bit...
down
0.000151
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-12pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12PM ET
77,173,895
77,174,526
ed4e8272324f38eca027393fdd90959988aeb336
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xe962ba49d28290aa6d9d6cb06aa123cc01aac67c2fbaae47ea77aa0aa76e15c4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-5pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5PM ET
77,182,756
77,183,193
7a9ee551faff181dafa204c28b87f6e1f7e32889
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xb4fd7593bf20c5355bac222b9a95263ee384a23f83e6920664ea98e69486160d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.936909710772206e-05 3. Question:...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-6pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6PM ET
77,184,344
77,184,344
65118bf5bc3e0c2ad812e93db2d8f8cab75c62a4
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x77516de5737f0bcbd1e41e9b2c80eeda28ce3e480c52ba9eedc39a0177baba40
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.936909710772206e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-2pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 2.2584111779872704e-...
down
0.000144
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-8pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8PM ET
77,188,705
77,188,705
cee357f9f43b357ee6cf94b201ad349d81192ba0
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x09b2538c6018e1f20d45adee8bc540c1bbae7071835094526b8411709503dbcc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-2pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 2.2584111779872704e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitc...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-9pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9PM ET
77,189,223
77,241,223
27b16f973531d16040a09e44eb9e5c84b3d980f9
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xc1f3230aea9f211488221acfe6e0b27571639a05406c11683cf28644db9479e0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-30-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octo...
up
0.0002
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-10pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10PM ET
77,191,002
77,192,400
10262ad806b108ec0420912fba1f370e437df043
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x2b08064d4abf875b1db05c85064c3a53677007f1562c8f1f40cc51d61614d352
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.906066149528236e-06 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or...
up
0.000226
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-11pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 11PM ET
77,193,951
77,194,093
aa18fb51b89036d090b3b5a0271826ba6d63b678
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xa7f8b5c67b56ab6e8deb45b654528e423bda41d476127781d85a44b6fe6d7d6d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.906066149528236e-06 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.1892225304668636 3. Question: ...
down
0.000021
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-12am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 12AM ET
77,194,472
77,195,784
cf57951e2b561138a3b3618c8d8c574e4c21144c
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x3d647280ddf9f97df9ccd8434271f575abc8a8dc11bf8c0ce7843941ecd7b334
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.1892225304668636 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down...
down
0.000008
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-3am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 3AM ET
77,199,347
77,200,861
ea9ff488ef786a60b93ac29c50056a802e08dbe3
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xf512b610391875246d0a34c6d30520b8e2d6d80133e3bd0838a84c160a26cd3d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.4583586731704725e-06 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-4am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 4AM ET
77,201,318
77,204,440
ca5a0faf4b6148fbbe4bd31fb5e09bb5c8826c27
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x29b102c6aae77e8f758d8116d133971e60b77c982fece6704aeabfdf6b8e8b30
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.4583586731704725e-06 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-9am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.894634537134998e-06 3. Question...
up
0.000125
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-5am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 5AM ET
77,202,890
77,204,248
032c8136604513ccc89363ce0a59d572f2502fa8
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x59ce6e4c05aa214d69e692785f8624ca6900424e067beaf8064bb17844340361
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-9am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.894634537134998e-06 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-10am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 4.6672299847284105e-06 3. Question...
up
0.000109
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-6am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 6AM ET
77,205,032
77,206,375
1f31a96f320b3995abbaa67ca0c3cb21ddfa2e20
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xdd046bc6924599dfbb327d8b024f12743a05b24121b934ada3f13fe919604eff
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-10am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 4.6672299847284105e-06 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up o...
down
0.0005
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-7am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 7AM ET
77,206,375
77,206,375
c95a03368f2389fe4182d83d9191f81911a3a0ce
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x7136cd3c915d234d82bebba2aa5194d1bbddb42aa11172d3214be45d62b932a6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011250471938009916 3. Question: Bitcoin Up o...
down
0.000167
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-8am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8AM ET
77,208,173
77,209,349
ca234dbde72f84f9de1e738538ece799ecaa9953
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xdf308b01c3fa701fe8798d3e00d503789fb2d5128951db600baab6156635cbf5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011250471938009916 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-11am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 11AM ET
77,213,328
77,214,050
a434b08b0e265762594537f1087560be672632a3
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x175b94379ad4bb4a020030cd595c7622080a3854aedd9d0052c048b94061605b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 1...
up
0.000375
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-12pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 12PM ET
77,214,458
77,216,033
a0566dcd1240c06d676f05ac7834a5ea612fb274
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x8ec51de1c61297df50d91baae3d5a55971c0494102dcdc820bb9fedd82002616
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.820416911746411e-06 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or...
down
0.000063
solana-up-or-down-october-3-12pm-et
Solana Up or Down - October 3, 12PM ET
77,216,060
77,216,075
61d098d6722aa999f00ad19501054093ef2444eb
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xb99bd67a89855f253b44770413183a0e4f0edfea3f32219838c253780c117a21
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-1-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.820416911746411e-06 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-1am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0006523156871945854 3. Questio...
down
0
xrp-up-or-down-october-3-2pm-et
XRP Up or Down - October 3, 2PM ET
77,218,430
77,219,509
331e2adf330b47f1898f52a5fa30737ddba004ba
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0xb8ce16e09392b2c5d9207839880790971b18c6a2c79a95bba2dfd64d4f3d4fc7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-1am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0006523156871945854 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Dow...
down
0.000014
xrp-up-or-down-october-3-3pm-et
XRP Up or Down - October 3, 3PM ET
77,220,086
77,221,210
563bb250517acd2beb2e968689f9ee39e4e068a0
0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d
0x4da10e9a3aac3be968485431b41251d16600d73c955456493192b4063098064a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4...
down
0.000313
xrp-up-or-down-october-3-4pm-et
XRP Up or Down - October 3, 4PM ET
77,222,088
77,222,889