sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
abfe1d88ac443bae19914869faae9f74ea19f561 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xf49578d222534aa2d346cd00244bbb0e28faffbc41c7b3950f83cc391d94099a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 8.790414418259773e-06
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Dow... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-3-5pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 3, 5PM ET | 77,224,579 | 77,224,579 |
3f0638b5c466e96fc339d43bcad0f2c3c1dc42b8 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x6b35a59063f7506cc15dda3f8e5a5b99254e07f94238271a4e39e566994cb8b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 8.790414418259773e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.96609250788912e-06
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-3-6pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 3, 6PM ET | 77,226,234 | 77,226,234 |
b0fcf6c83df5fbebcbfd4c89ff9c81a2be7762a5 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xd6eb2893408aac505b0219adc73cfbdbeb1cbb727fdc9cee6f3b3f88dbbce111 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.96609250788912e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-3-7pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 3, 7PM ET | 77,226,801 | 77,227,136 |
f96c6bad4db3e4c73f637009f3cdbc930b17aabe | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x0b626477f2725b66c4c00d74ced78faa4e020b207c3a49d201810454e2ec83a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-3-8pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 3, 8PM ET | 77,228,746 | 77,229,159 |
3436016471b59caebe46ba812786fa035292b856 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x320c9e270ceb6a71b67cd987b62959f031dfbfe3552e443fe8b97ebc2f4c4377 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-2-8am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.5241403383814595e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-3-9pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 3, 9PM ET | 77,230,178 | 77,231,344 |
c16221cbb3d6ea512304a597c0f2c601f5bcb2cb | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xd4b0ee8d300fe1b2878b6afc70bf79994fd34bc9abd4f7dc2c2a9d7d63bd80ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-2-8am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.5241403383814595e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-3-10pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 3, 10PM ET | 77,231,744 | 77,233,045 |
f12712e6adc4b0486a82d37caf3f2ee2cba0d2fe | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x45dcd25746df7ec1c56bd749f6706cb7c2d0eccb5c4a2f14dafb5fa391e5f9a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-3-11pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 3, 11PM ET | 77,234,285 | 77,236,831 |
f509795b14ff39e99a8a063a1a67f42f479c668f | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x9e5831b06883da8dc5147ffa0816ad5730f322ac0f1fd0932a3225e31bfc9577 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2,... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-4-12am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 4, 12AM ET | 77,236,227 | 77,236,496 |
e6d08a3bdf0cb5893b5c324b86cd0629a566eac9 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xcabf21f01a7c0c8b8971c429088c3f7152a7899101b93c578664bde2921b9068 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-4-1am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 4, 1AM ET | 77,236,864 | 77,239,904 |
bd964ebedeac998df1c256be26d923cc84dfd34a | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xc69c6053ae4766521a3e6f217164272b7dbeee8327f290085cfa3cb1a1b53ca7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00015069458729680067
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | up | 0.000131 | xrp-up-or-down-october-4-2am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 4, 2AM ET | 77,238,519 | 77,239,941 |
3f9f3d06052fe0416645ebe5cde9c721d6ec86d9 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xccd16fcbe24c349bfe5c8a67351f4e14e6c4bb2f1922ced3fda0d24400e05f62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00015069458729680067
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up o... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-4-3am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 4, 3AM ET | 77,240,809 | 77,241,192 |
0f610677931b27692fd9a9eb1bbe7e0cd34a8f09 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x815d9790232b3ce2711cfe6f2b49b35627b84015a8a9b4677608a67d8133ce0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4AM ET | 77,241,724 | 77,241,724 |
a98a09d2e9e687d47b74aa3edb9f2ff223f68b7a | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xcd608b9a6b868863240279666760d55e97dfdf890ea227675a7d2cc1cbc4a259 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00014386962670418863
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 2PM ET | 77,259,428 | 77,259,428 |
a202a6bb79786e263bbf705e2af624625ec41abf | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xaa0c542c3dbd120488eab953295530153d63506b929004a1ffeeec514fa70758 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00014386962670418863
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or ... | up | 0.000099 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 3PM ET | 77,260,460 | 77,261,817 |
199fd3e4f7605002754f6faed5f2990cb7b7cbfb | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xd1971a8f435d56bb9e473b3e0f92b3815894d6de773a3e1ba4b99876ac1d6946 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00020004000800160032
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4PM ET | 77,261,953 | 77,263,511 |
55db3583ae405e72ca10500418aeee0d6eb7bb7c | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x4946208991caee94b1bf2aa02954a42ef6e7a6121bdd01fc0f91af8678a5384b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00020004000800160032
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0002257652441551093
3. Questi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5PM ET | 77,263,894 | 77,265,191 |
72393e3c8821d9bba3008799bcc49df33bb26f5b | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xd6472878b945572a0c33ab1f7f5185fd008fb24e1c04791311f31afd57a46612 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0002257652441551093
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.059936859906229e-05
3. Quest... | up | 0.000073 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-6pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 6PM ET | 77,266,149 | 77,266,882 |
bc1f999c6c2adcd383bedb83edb94847d2aaaad9 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x56e923d4919fcbbfad2c3e316c906cd35047687179ca6eec2f9e276c72b79458 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.059936859906229e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.05277987106165e-06
3. Questi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-7pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 7PM ET | 77,267,844 | 77,268,561 |
0ff89464c2442ab9e29c65cce7e2eb8cc7bf40cc | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xfb1228e64ca1726de85d51bdba1a5fce52ef81c970241818b462d6dd1d604842 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.05277987106165e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Do... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 8PM ET | 77,268,877 | 77,270,248 |
741e3aae606bc44ece160f39e6297c7b9b97e1a2 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xd1771cf8f4ee0517503912fa096be494680fb8866ea871ff8bd3adcbdb5b7873 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00012492409657258906
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Do... | up | 0.00063 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 9PM ET | 77,271,211 | 77,271,211 |
c20a697cf82e593fc5fbf660f0ce46e6c5e6aeea | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x91bb48562c426b229e614720aa81d50abcc5a6e4f4da4662fa811b3203aee777 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00012492409657258906
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00010914524471770686
3. Question:... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 10PM ET | 77,273,629 | 77,273,629 |
ada081c7bd4e96cda20e16c46782d75b3b2208a9 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x3c2ec36dd94673b62f97b77b2a29e58b7d69a93282116f5de7ce35ab6a37d42f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00010914524471770686
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0005002501250625312
3. Question... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11PM ET | 77,274,039 | 77,278,709 |
e9e42d00b6b8abb883d3e14e182c2b9f2c0613c5 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xb12084202f3dc3ef9d6ec9201b437dc2afff1dd0fabb8e77a7a47c7a548b0a9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0005002501250625312
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00016686167434896084
3. Questi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 12AM ET | 77,275,462 | 77,277,016 |
6388c50c15b3b31ab38ac458b4ca9d6b04b08e15 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x771f10194cb82f42d72ee69dd6e94b9db5382420d66c938ef8134bea47830d79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00016686167434896084
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up o... | up | 0.000101 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 1AM ET | 77,277,746 | 77,278,717 |
62606ff197bafe884ab2a4174752f0447d33301f | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xbd3712fa72f002a7259ed2e635d0ebc798024a7a26b9d99d6504c9376ec87cad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.000375234521575985
3. Question: Solana Up or D... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 2AM ET | 77,279,333 | 77,280,405 |
70fa87922ba168602c6168d08732ac9780256ad9 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x9cc52bb4bd389185b09ba55bfe2b3ee0813bd5ff940687c0b31df025ca1762de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.000375234521575985
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 3, 12PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-3-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 6.305567816381865e-05
3. Question... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 3AM ET | 77,281,044 | 77,282,065 |
66361d42891e9f1c747924192fd5ed26bf4be5ef | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x3817fae4f59de28f4c24c961230e464f235344b86a923b6fbf66a483022f35f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 3, 12PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-3-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 6.305567816381865e-05
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 2PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-3-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0.000292 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4AM ET | 77,282,346 | 77,283,747 |
ea49bd22e186cb42d8b78a0ac91f4f9172caf153 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x29ff94653b30b9bceda0ffa1309f78c6813abd2c5053a67e025202710645edf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 2PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-3-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 3PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-3-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.4435303546943611e-05
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 4P... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 5AM ET | 77,284,349 | 77,284,349 |
777a8418c27e84f4df88d503ff44f38adeae2970 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xc7e412b6dc0d892334c2bffb53ab28929f8adaec9445646306255cfa5e2110c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 3PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-3-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.4435303546943611e-05
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 4PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-3-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00031299577462534823
3. Question: XRP Up or D... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6AM ET | 77,286,028 | 77,287,151 |
92a5b5f2b26def8d179774c9fd39ea2d07d8da3c | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x54d6265586dc7d297e0cb57f4ce5d337451a096a66d369f096efe1c485e02e95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 4PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-3-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00031299577462534823
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 5PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-3-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 6P... | down | 0.002938 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7AM ET | 77,287,498 | 77,288,813 |
a0d9bbb11b8e0ee09e061393e4992b2d5d9c7073 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x2bf494cb406cd32c6d4d7d3b7956932cda0e0c5fd6d29143591a660ac8f82612 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 5PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-3-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 6PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-3-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 7PM ET | Event: xrp-u... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 8AM ET | 77,289,061 | 77,290,506 |
62180d74c23578deb3e21b9e726d06f70354ae96 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xdacdd2d9eecdda968ec7fa17321d05896160a819be04d03df759e942af77f4aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 6PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-3-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 7PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-3-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 8PM ET | Event: xrp-u... | up | 0.000489 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 9AM ET | 77,291,252 | 77,292,203 |
403f3ee7755ff84084ae3de274e4b79765c59089 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x80fb26830c0ad721194899e96bf587250d5cb49d4c604d5af065346b60005b90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 7PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-3-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 8PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 9PM ET | Event: xrp-u... | up | 0.000119 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10AM ET | 77,293,195 | 77,293,906 |
9628837279ba7600771deab926ddc5937c629c17 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x98971993c4aaf8998edf8a13a1fd33c915cc2f1b211b13b960f1ed8c4cdf06d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 8PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 9PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 10PM ET | Event: xrp-... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11AM ET | 77,294,407 | 77,295,587 |
5b22b548bcd4d83fd87ad096fb346fca2406af9f | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xd7504296ed9e8f5c7e7f2c7a9a3aa756b6f164023dbe89f079955c7b9aeb66e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 9PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 10PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 11PM ET | Event: xr... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 12PM ET | 77,295,847 | 77,300,671 |
262090c8ba170aae71a834c786aeab954510e368 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x446feea892671ae03d6734d552ce01fb0e0dcd3e8403c475906e444c7bff6e8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 10PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 11PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-3-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 4, 12AM ET | Event: ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 1PM ET | 77,298,260 | 77,298,260 |
9a4e8be44903fdd72b4fc67a55e45b70d8fbfe0d | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xa26666db9144151c67f2b44b3d2ce08a75d8327684ec72f09056386cd34c5e36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 3, 11PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-3-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 4, 12AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-4-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 4, 1AM ET | Event: x... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 2PM ET | 77,299,835 | 77,304,056 |
ac2d417458247eae00a763ea30f77418183086c4 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xcb01d7fc4a2763d84b00f043c1c1ba5e17a30bbc6e3bd1e33a853bfe907cceca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 4, 12AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-4-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 4, 1AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 4, 2AM ET | Event: xrp... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 3PM ET | 77,301,011 | 77,301,011 |
822d8501a4cd4beafa34e8cb26beb30938409501 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x044d12077375bd514414524d8b01d27cca253f887f2bc7955d901dde4e8e9e7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 4, 1AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 4, 2AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-4-2am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013149243918474687
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 4, 3AM ... | up | 0.000805 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-7pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7PM ET | 77,308,400 | 77,308,400 |
9d933f144f632e75451a121540e31f68c0990725 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x332e4e9856809d966def231b6b054d6a5c609d82bd78eddde5e634b876cf75cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 4, 2AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-4-2am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013149243918474687
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 4, 3AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-4-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 8PM ET | 77,309,564 | 77,310,833 |
d6690a2f90e4f2cc366c5bdf1d9dc57ebc1730bb | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xe196fb4b8dbb89f72250b741208e489e17c95aebebabacf713eb24d947895eba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 4, 3AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-4-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 2PM ET | ... | up | 0.000937 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 9PM ET | 77,311,518 | 77,311,518 |
36e2e3627bef8e4b17a892f780e095b0ede30a39 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xa1fe0002e589035fd7e168638e746243a7c0183f69fba537155e35c858b02e3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 3... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10PM ET | 77,313,478 | 77,314,258 |
b57eeab98e67ebe482a26b1193ddeed98bb13448 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x954306c391149d02300517403da1c545950eddfdf57357c1443112b3517a6f3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 9.914316172543239e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Dow... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-5-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11PM ET | 77,315,267 | 77,319,317 |
8ba5e890592e9d30dad0fee4ffb9b960911bc009 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xb0e7e275716092cdf5562a93a746805664bef2d9f5fe82464319e542b5a59d37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 9.914316172543239e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Dow... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-6-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12AM ET | 77,316,846 | 77,317,608 |
40a155c2362af074df26eac156e4d001a72818d5 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x1115a1138869291a9be0ca2461174aaa57b6c4b0d64fa4c3a89efe60822c0a0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 6... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-6-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1AM ET | 77,318,381 | 77,320,262 |
12e4c92e9ec3f7f8318f1564200966bdfb1020ef | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x57314894864132bcde3f57d5e1fa1f0f67a9be2b0e07e2c6b236cdb25a8c7d42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Dow... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-6-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 2AM ET | 77,320,262 | 77,320,262 |
d7b949c93fc5e2c0571450b9eea05a44adc42e8a | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x82e7efd3d174c36c8e190794158cfb39b9a3f4b1d6002e0945f9128301669461 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Dow... | down | 0.000182 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-6-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3AM ET | 77,321,450 | 77,322,688 |
e6a351b60d808c3432a3c00c14edb038f7dfcacb | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0xa0f130f147a2d1c05924f42804a04519cf21f28e11dc9a4704d2c88183c08eb6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 9... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-6-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4AM ET | 77,323,452 | 77,323,452 |
ef145d238525724d56057283dba8ec270c5402d7 | 0x37e78999ff8e580a7b9ff1fbef6a79fb3ba3516d | 0x1b1a8a6c32dba09be43145e4a127c837c8e3bf30086ccf3526456a067fddc226 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-9pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0006299443626315542
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Dow... | up | 0.000007 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-6-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5AM ET | 77,325,438 | 77,326,078 |
2fbd49420d7e3ac83e899880ddcf8da26440ff87 | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0x792950178ecfd6b054d603d490d7188420e4071508ccd9886ef087131caa4c91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers
Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | blackhawks | 1 | nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Blackhawks vs. Panthers | 77,404,679 | 77,404,679 |
dcca5bde5b095b218c9ac9744931f3c41bf0f16b | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0x77778f264f483720102e2f38b58caede4d60a89d894279be07a199ab0bad73ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Raptors vs. Kings
Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rat... | raptors | 1 | nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Raptors vs. Kings | 77,447,201 | 77,447,201 |
049ecfd5aa876ce310b894cb75fa9002922a8955 | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0xf2892ddda9b74699fb1bcf0bb5a5f80d0f2494efd85b6cfb34f4e867a5b57cc5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies
Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08
Predict the user's c... | celtics | 1 | nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Celtics vs. Grizzlies | 77,447,201 | 77,447,201 |
a77040317442dfa004bf999273d7d4f75fb7e16c | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0xfcf6ac1d026e5b51a29c554c256590fe28ed0e80cc0e5e865f57e312819c16cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | trail blazers | 1 | nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | 77,447,201 | 77,447,201 |
e02d2fa09931a70032a65373bd2634fdb777c7ed | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0x0c4e3d5635959b249053792b8c96267612ecab34e0d251d130f15dc9d783ee94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | celtics | 1 | nba-bos-tor-2025-10-10 | Celtics vs. Raptors | 77,550,312 | 77,550,312 |
69c2f040d71a1ee19d23cfb31049c11b5574dca9 | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0x5bea4d9c3beb6aa6df1abfe5d96b832a226220a90c0a3e1556cac7c6020edee5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | 76ers | 1 | nba-orl-phi-2025-10-10 | Magic vs. 76ers | 77,550,312 | 77,550,312 |
d0afc12f8cfe4ce5517f34c4e282ae3b8ea8a4e4 | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0xec2453b74754aa99e61d11cc112243fd66ed7c011485f37751ca93b168072f7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | jazz | 1 | nba-uta-sas-2025-10-10 | Jazz vs. Spurs | 77,550,312 | 77,550,312 |
2b5cd980cce61929dac5c5fdb7b304591311f21a | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0xd55353d086e0d5d62383e0ff538c721eab4969a426d6404e2134f59a374894f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | buccaneers | 1 | nfl-sf-tb-2025-10-12 | 49ers vs. Buccaneers | 77,617,883 | 77,617,883 |
baea9aeff3d621e000f80647332a63931afca63a | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0xb4bba8acb4a85c9f4ccd0eec6393e746c0176d271c2d0e52792968a05dd64b0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | bears | 1 | nfl-chi-was-2025-10-13 | Bears vs. Commanders | 77,662,209 | 77,662,209 |
3388ad985c7ce8a6989e62ca5c06d3968ec4b9fd | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0x4a0fbcc3f14ea7855d4206cd660283dc1fc8f8e223da8679f75e04d6aebd0f3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | wild | 1 | nhl-min-dal-2025-10-14 | Wild vs. Stars | 77,705,791 | 77,705,791 |
b81d1cb74bc89487d8bee3fa4c2023920853d1df | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0xfdfd2c6012ea621b64c17b31e80f3b97c8a4d3a137fc4aa0f344427bb9c1ea48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | capitals | 1 | nhl-tb-wsh-2025-10-14 | Lightning vs. Capitals | 77,705,791 | 77,705,791 |
47e8a58caca2a570cd5ace5edd4ba25bdda2f8ea | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0x0471201d7063cac2fb4580d1a4858c4b2a5946aa48d1ef2427e732c620f1c75e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | lakers | 1 | nba-dal-lal-2025-10-15 | Mavericks vs. Lakers | 77,749,244 | 77,749,244 |
3a4fe0e42ebc28a13096ca7dc02fde5cbbacd2c0 | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0xca1b59c0d6bfe2078bc31c133c9ca9b1be2b1ac7c672c03f12b3e6240624880c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | celtics | 1 | nba-tor-bos-2025-10-15 | Raptors vs. Celtics | 77,749,244 | 77,749,244 |
45919bf9540c881eff67ddcfb1a66eb5657b9d4c | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0xe2dc0e563cd38df55ecb6d3588662707fb2687171d7b45865df8af4d55cbeaed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | hornets | 1 | nba-mem-cha-2025-10-15 | Grizzlies vs. Hornets | 77,749,244 | 77,749,244 |
bba9a529d8ed1e05b65136fdc1a5e6eafcec6cae | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0xa540261a3e4c0d4e0423c7be8f5ad5a30f67d2b9a34514a3c1c2c6303d510d45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | canadiens | 1 | nhl-nyr-mon-2025-10-18 | Rangers vs. Canadiens | 77,877,865 | 77,877,865 |
4a85c4f1790d2a6e995e1eeabdd86e1e15df92a8 | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0x3af49f39f61c7e4505aecf6f49c06d41db4e030ceaaf322f10db1dd9c940eae0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | falcons | 1 | nfl-atl-sf-2025-10-19 | Falcons vs. 49ers | 77,921,204 | 77,921,204 |
e72d6437ad7d92f14da87d1227c1f8aa806677bb | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0xde595a41749dffe5b5631a1d1e9b1c8d7ad1c5c92c31b73470f1ed13c0af334b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | capitals | 1 | nhl-sea-wsh-2025-10-21 | Kraken vs. Capitals | 78,005,670 | 78,005,670 |
dec3d4d2b305c7e11f987e4eb74cd6a2cfc41762 | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0xa2704f232d61303d17e7d4b4d9c23b7058a9132971779b5437c3965ff78e5bbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | pistons | 1 | nba-det-chi-2025-10-22 | Pistons vs. Bulls | 78,048,824 | 78,048,824 |
58f9a371f6937826dacf6a1b94aa9f763507f203 | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0xc327d77934fbb448fb89523640d0d1245c3df45b478ba9a9fd2c3d475760604d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | 76ers | 1 | nba-phi-bos-2025-10-22 | 76ers vs. Celtics | 78,048,824 | 78,048,824 |
534ca7145f7144eeba2eb381e2f9d08f238b73ae | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0x9fe6c87cbef1fcc37ddde5f65c22773ce7f865b0af93257719f30ed807dfab25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | senators | 1 | nhl-phi-ott-2025-10-23 | Flyers vs. Senators | 78,092,967 | 78,092,967 |
97bc33644824370260eaecc7e29ceea3c038f7c3 | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0x17732cd16ff60ec82dd2d870e43c2c5a4fe238ab8b811fabc69338d91b8e11d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | senators | 1 | nhl-ott-chi-2025-10-28 | Senators vs. Blackhawks | 78,310,068 | 78,310,068 |
ea16f39cd5e00d2ff5bafee59c6d7afca0190a4b | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0x280ba9bb0df91fe953139ff5b3fbdbae4cee706ab63ea551626e17826831a21e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | kings | 1 | nhl-lak-sj-2025-10-28 | Kings vs. Sharks | 78,310,068 | 78,310,068 |
3c5d10f9cc2e3a7093f9b59ca37118ece2d22a1a | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0x6e1cb648bf2370d6d8f18606d344466f5d349558ebc4bf5c0d885dddc926f5c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | clippers | 1 | nba-lac-gsw-2025-10-29 | Clippers vs. Warriors | 78,310,068 | 78,310,068 |
7d87afbf4322c507863412398f4eef26845959a4 | 0x3804fb6b5781d6829f2ac3967647e98021b66136 | 0x95b5f184d52416927cdfd40601649334c8fb77ba1474e5a12584612804bec4c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-chi-fla-2025-10-07 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Raptors vs. Kings | Event: nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: ... | islanders | 1 | nhl-nyi-bos-2025-10-28 | Islanders vs. Bruins | 78,310,068 | 78,310,068 |
e9ca0a45551ba0be72c94a971aa1318430138a06 | 0x384617153052657fc20b82b870753fcae3e9029a | 0x7ac13a74eb956bcd79a3456907fa8637827b05d30ba93112ad0cc85b94478a8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 21?
Event: ethereum-price-on-september-21
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-september-21 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 21? | 76,779,947 | 76,779,947 |
71624771cc85a99886acbc1e330e73d1dcb58e21 | 0x384617153052657fc20b82b870753fcae3e9029a | 0x3cdaac98e672eb86b4cb3dd806b2308acb7207e907b4ccfbe580ca22c9e4e186 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 21? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24?
Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the ta... | yes | 1 | lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | 76,892,663 | 76,892,663 |
27e62f371d0c39ed9566f6194ddd32c84cdd939b | 0x384617153052657fc20b82b870753fcae3e9029a | 0x4b338f6fc3ed17a2321c6ba29efd44d1e5b55951e58b2519b085208248aba4e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 21? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | uel-lil-brn-2025-09-25 | Will Lille win on 2025-09-25? | 77,013,218 | 77,013,218 |
c93f55af14bd376b59f90a5df6ee63d98d882fee | 0x384617153052657fc20b82b870753fcae3e9029a | 0x23d11385d87c3acb82d2e512e7be291429a88f6a1c47bd4af937fc2a2d91fd85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 21? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille win on ... | yes | 1 | ucl-cfc-ben-2025-09-30 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-30? | 77,115,199 | 77,115,199 |
914fd65aef828b5bfed1473416a86bdeeaa3774e | 0x384617153052657fc20b82b870753fcae3e9029a | 0x3bd58a81092f5f3042b40f3242289548649913e99a092901de89f2db6cdc37a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 21? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille win on ... | yes | 1 | ucl-nap-spo-2025-10-01 | Will Napoli win on 2025-10-01? | 77,251,480 | 77,251,480 |
6742361bc2b102cb3ff06ee159c36eef811982fc | 0x384617153052657fc20b82b870753fcae3e9029a | 0xc5f62d57a201a43248c0a62560a63b1cd8e56e0ae1918eacae5d8ead4acf63b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 21? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille win on ... | yes | 1 | epl-lee-tot-2025-10-04 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-04? | 77,259,640 | 77,259,640 |
83b2a221c3280f75c69b5449dfc097ac72dd9016 | 0x384617153052657fc20b82b870753fcae3e9029a | 0x9ef06b1effa60ac7839dc3bace3a89ddace82ec126a3289ba0e071ca142bb8c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 21? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille win on ... | yes | 1 | ucl-juv-spo-2025-11-04 | Will Juventus FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? | 78,801,461 | 78,801,461 |
122d687a34a37ff8e208133688aa282bdb73c1d2 | 0x384617153052657fc20b82b870753fcae3e9029a | 0x9ee33240c84e0e9595973f27fd7b2cadce304190f67fe3c8fc675e50c94ba1e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 21? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille win on ... | yes | 1 | bun-ein-mai-2025-11-09 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-09? | 78,826,986 | 78,826,986 |
5caee71a1535cee2318b5113befdfb3de10138fd | 0x384617153052657fc20b82b870753fcae3e9029a | 0x971b6376b65b1d76ddd60143143b5d68b129de1f91033a2d074c6ef2e2158ae4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 21? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille win on ... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | 78,827,229 | 78,827,229 |
0a9512496dd71e488b2b115fbfbe5adffac3b0c5 | 0x384617153052657fc20b82b870753fcae3e9029a | 0x5ce6663f0fafdc49ce0bd104938680454bb9b0f164d00602b043eb2c9e6c6e85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 21? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille win on ... | yes | 1 | ucl-liv-psv-2025-11-26 | Will PSV win on 2025-11-26? | 79,650,269 | 79,650,269 |
3490c8d99fbbc5a31ea97db883472829fbed731a | 0x384617153052657fc20b82b870753fcae3e9029a | 0x3f20f83381ff99908041cf0d0f81467bdaf2f63a176e48b4b107a54ca0d08df6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 21? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille win on ... | yes | 1 | nba-cup-winner-164 | Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Cup? | 79,650,527 | 79,650,527 |
a297f7ec558fe8b13ae6025e0ea5216c92b876e3 | 0x384617153052657fc20b82b870753fcae3e9029a | 0x6c5c5f0eea0f2578d545af01929db2bcb781e216f859631dae82a2dd1a2f0c63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 21? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille win on ... | yes | 1 | bun-ein-mai-2025-11-09 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? | 79,650,527 | 79,650,527 |
46296f00992ebc33919032a3fe8d3fcab76e196a | 0x384617153052657fc20b82b870753fcae3e9029a | 0xab65843b77ecbd28f561df9f26a5ba3bdff5dfdf5bb127e56e416e0702e730fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 21? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille win on ... | yes | 1 | epl-che-liv-2025-10-04 | Will Chelsea vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | 79,650,527 | 79,650,527 |
f58d4c25aceb8212ebe10b5c76f87b9f4847bb26 | 0x384617153052657fc20b82b870753fcae3e9029a | 0xb30283ae26b6918e9658d844bf984137fc71020c5dbd2e55bfb9fd2b66ab1dac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 21? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille win on ... | yes | 1 | nba-cup-winner-164 | Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Cup? | 79,650,527 | 79,650,527 |
0eff96145392d98f1b07f65ed491f2ab0df2561b | 0x384617153052657fc20b82b870753fcae3e9029a | 0x0bf8e17aa110ef362a4add00e8c792f38a89a152f8359fc6062feb24a396313c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 21? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille win on ... | yes | 1 | nba-cup-winner-164 | Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the NBA Cup? | 79,650,529 | 79,650,529 |
1d866cc204d6b3fd01f313563f578015c79b840f | 0x384617153052657fc20b82b870753fcae3e9029a | 0x0fe51eab70363a1ef459199c2126691199d838c45e36e51088de7f19108176be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 21? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille win on ... | yes | 1 | uef-grc-sco-2025-11-15 | Will Scotland win on 2025-11-15? | 79,650,529 | 79,650,529 |
b57e9afd691435674f88f7e764b2c54a2933362b | 0x384617153052657fc20b82b870753fcae3e9029a | 0x1bf7c30ba20add13f88f9fb4cfa01ca79d3f1b4abb6cf8f2fb60cbf81010a49f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 21? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille win on ... | yes | 1 | epl-new-ars-2025-09-28 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-28? | 79,650,529 | 79,650,529 |
52553b04c018606d5d0888b6d33473db440e45ab | 0x384617153052657fc20b82b870753fcae3e9029a | 0x88857ba36ec360abf8216ed9c43ca8d9b7a39791163d14c3471a9e32d0cd24ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 21? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille win on ... | yes | 1 | epl-not-sun-2025-09-27 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-09-27? | 79,650,529 | 79,650,529 |
c3931bc7a53658efc38ff47fb1f4d3277c8cda66 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x0059f5405d768fb411aa56a59867a540d552d03407bbce466ca57f6a75c72e21 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee?
Event: democratic-presidential-nominee
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | democratic-presidential-nominee | Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | 60,317,656 | 60,317,656 |
32a49e135393762b293b717827fd96f285a2083e | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0xc3237317e1c7c45fcb38abbf6378454db5b76355d5764d8334cd58f605216170 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee?
Event: democratic-presidential-nominee
Predict the user's choice and confid... | yes | 1 | democratic-presidential-nominee | Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | 60,317,656 | 60,317,656 |
610dc9ba7925f7542356e2c3e221f29a42b97198 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x260fd9d6b10746909a26c2af7a68b409f757c95a07dc57ddd480774a36c8399b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
... | yes | 0.621061 | how-many-fed-rate-cuts-this-year | Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024? | 61,554,176 | 61,993,589 |
e9123c6715dd0a1fa296dcb63814d8fb915daf22 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0xa7a9316a2a86e4c1e2cce4449dda5b548ed00ed8ac2a990ce345227601708094 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-september | US adds ore than 250k jobs in September? | 62,636,881 | 62,636,881 |
7b2a54582f2ff6f0147fce85b61ae056d0fb2e80 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x0efba31710a1935e231a199a27457a7ee4efe779b64a28e1980feed76029ae2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) 5-6b one week after launch? | 62,780,747 | 62,780,747 |
13f3d5b7566d9706528e81974fdecfbb91bd39fd | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0xa21709ccbfd174cb20318876d72d9c98c3526fcf5ba373c19360e18d4fefe960 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-2400-on-october-11 | Ethereum above $2,400 on October 11? | 62,907,997 | 62,907,997 |
e2007f686fd665f9b08e0c30bbc362a730a888fb | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x004e19d419d05dd366793689ce2af457d51bc921d9da4af867de09f0864a4305 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 0.695335 | fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting? | 63,678,005 | 65,657,742 |
9acbfc4e5882f31a9074dc19e047ce0c93857846 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x2369419f01faae11f1b2130406b684f036a78a466e1a814dfe84e5ff5b3bd732 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-october | Will the US add less than 100,000 jobs in October? | 63,759,772 | 63,759,772 |
42863ad8d711c32d0bb00cd1ff4aee937aab4959 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x2a3a29b57597777e5d2941c419716b02a7b8c43b5c19c4ac746ae2d9c720cbe1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 0.88242 | fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | 63,923,596 | 63,925,774 |
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