sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
99a09030a940e04c5a6bee7292e7d560c4aa0901 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0xc83128531d31cc5e5b3ca1f0065f39f6f88047d0905ae2a0ae94d9be1eec2aa5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 0 | iran-strike-on-israel-by-nov-8 | Iran strike on Israel by Nov 8? | 63,972,621 | 64,091,813 |
cbbc223de44f7761045862fb98f127b517240776 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x71da2bbc04a7eae0d8ef739c17025d85917c0ea7db07646b6400a4f6ccb9f304 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 0.000021 | fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? | 64,237,100 | 64,237,100 |
d82565f7495d9aa0de2914d25683381e1bc29ae0 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x1f37446953386f655a6032c9a51c9cc552efa4c1b61c456bd40e1353423d7405 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 0.777779 | will-bitcoin-hit-100k-by-november-22 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? | 64,599,385 | 64,599,385 |
37122d1833478736974bd6763193f7b870ae9ddc | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x624d5fed5c4d89d4375f95c003c6bb9475f549f834ef9f96891a24e069ced66c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-november | Will the US gain between 200-250k jobs in November? | 65,289,110 | 65,289,110 |
2a3ea0564723ad18fa0b6eaf578cc8e3a8a31112 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x2525dfdd231169ed70088da9649041546c44fa1004fcbee1128334bff8f3edfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 0.64878 | trudeau-resigns-before-february | Trudeau resigns before February? | 66,377,423 | 66,377,423 |
54c4b18583e186558578a791c53ba7eb354a6d08 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x47aa82bc10dfc85e39d34a7ede15bd45df27fb4d3112f3bce59aaf139a0fbf8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 0.827146 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-canadian-election | Will Bloc Québécois win the second most seats in the next Canadian election? | 66,640,130 | 66,640,130 |
9bf9784aa34eb221bbfc0d1ec408463e3bb8ed72 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x12b6268efb832fe64bb746b9f50a51245b761d6b170e172b3cd81a7c4f39432b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 0 | how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | 67,026,733 | 67,865,476 |
a10e1cd7bf482ad1d45175cc96fce4d86b21ecaf | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x8d52fed4ae101977e7807fe97c503bb0124c8a9947e02dd8507b3191bf220d87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 0.74095 | ethereum-above-3300-on-january-24 | Ethereum above $3,400 on January 24? | 67,064,609 | 67,064,609 |
bcbdcc8b1dffc1ac8a470d56162ae527410c0f32 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0xc5821602b440e61665dce5dcdc0fd20153864ba185d26a13e9be80fe98bb9e97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 0.917979 | fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | 67,359,874 | 67,458,078 |
ad8d2cd1efbe6084070c2c1e35681dbea180342e | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x66a86bed2460bb982e1a9a22d111b08bea41349423ef9e8669570e488cf96de0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 0.104477 | will-trump-impose-25-tariff-on-mexicocanada | Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? | 67,379,331 | 67,379,331 |
9f1029c3d184809df6c498fdf66a1760c5401b2a | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x1cf86e182d130ad9a730307fe919bcb18cd59c5bdad21bbdba6469d84e5cb242 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 0 | will-trump-impose-tariffs-on-china-before-march | Will Trump impose tariffs on China before March? | 67,382,652 | 67,386,249 |
f902bfc8fc600c741b7ad7ae2a57e8dde01bb25b | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x38b3f83975b123fd50d1de3cb58e32bc48bf35a5766d4dded790d8c25f1226e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-january | Will there be 100-150k jobs added in January 2025? | 67,663,308 | 67,663,308 |
6d3395f2e1eb352f136f42e69d1247acf82f6d9a | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x6df2f2ca434b5bacaef33d6b24edf42845199f4f794e66580de2d2c880a25275 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 0.135951 | how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | 68,378,863 | 72,663,603 |
1c2f2c6d7c445d9e76c48e0669dd7d5f65a607ee | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0xf83fb46dd70a4459fcc441a8511701c463374c5c3c250f585d74fda85ddfb7c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 0.000001 | bitcoin-all-time-high-by-march-31 | Bitcoin all time high by March 31? | 68,460,046 | 68,465,369 |
87952b7885d2af8531ac18f9664162c112e49596 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0xbe69fd3d55f4a3accb1a665733d18a215895d05beffae5f417de21a88bc992b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 0 | ethereum-all-time-high-by-june | Ethereum all time high by June 30? | 68,608,243 | 73,451,982 |
284203b0bb6130f675d98171e9d7fd422fd5049c | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0xd23655a381045a02486ff85c0c399f565d9c8a521c3b148a277439b3085a360d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 0.024399 | solana-above-145-on-march-7 | Solana above $145 on March 7? | 68,764,165 | 68,764,165 |
dc4496a83a15f99adbd4050d5cb2f6106d56891b | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0xce15b5a25882d148a051c7bdd6119aa69bdc2e3ede24058839dfa35d38a8ff36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 0.892943 | will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-feb-mar-4-10 | Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? | 68,846,039 | 68,846,039 |
0c278fa7e278be5ee218ac53ffc9bde100f383f4 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0xe3891342f8192665d2ab1148b953deef0bd0f829ed7e4fe7e9d0361e37e0e403 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | bucks | 0 | nba-mil-ind-2025-03-11 | Bucks vs. Pacers | 68,939,964 | 68,939,964 |
d6112cb401b169ca19d9dc1a1abb6490d97a85ce | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x294553d364fc12c2849600dc858460bca7c171ffe973aed87e44ffba8447990b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | celtics | 0.384615 | nba-okc-bos-2025-03-12 | Thunder vs. Celtics | 68,980,321 | 68,980,321 |
5a126708e869f6116cb56dc0f6f391e449ac72b1 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0xe716518d060909f31253edd933dc0c13e79769c28e840dfa6a6392b2c0f7da90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 0.999951 | will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-feb-mar-11-17 | Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17? | 69,059,157 | 69,059,157 |
b3fac9748b4ca30bb1cbd56eee1349fc43218919 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0xb824217cff94afaaad1faba11ee42936b40f1a7202a5510093a6030a18e017b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 0 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-canadian-election | Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election? | 69,068,805 | 69,068,805 |
98aff176b48fa7ceeb0b4a3a920e16a4110eeae7 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0xb0acc3ef6710e933b96b877c4f74dcf16affb0ce71ce46c68a2de783c211fd3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J. B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 0.972164 | energy-infrastructure-ceasefire-in-ukraine-in-march | Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? | 69,486,871 | 69,486,871 |
4b2570621f4d0c8392b4c4895ea106b5ec7bfa6a | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x1b07e957981a04e688191208a4fc8b8349a93d6de03eba460fda38e647dafa5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024? | Event: how-many-fed-rate-cuts-this-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6210608366786757
3. Question: US... | no | 0.496193 | seaair-ceasefire-in-ukraine-before-may | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | 69,490,434 | 69,492,002 |
60ffe4db283d3c59d6de1c13a96a06812acc5de5 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x31fd2ce0c3bf21891210d79e285d17038449a7519f6f9a5ee6af2effb7488dbe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024? | Event: how-many-fed-rate-cuts-this-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6210608366786757
2. Question: US adds ore than 250k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Eigenlayer market ... | no | 0 | solana-above-130-on-march-28 | Solana above $130 on March 28? | 69,609,315 | 69,621,082 |
371c925918f20b79ce22800321e6b2eac257774a | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x39e8a1119c4f2a1f9755cf471aefa6fe67bf656e3dc0c9ea6801996bfa4cc4f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US adds ore than 250k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) 5-6b one week after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereu... | yes | 0.900839 | how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Will Trump impose no general tariff on the EU by June 30? | 69,609,888 | 69,609,888 |
ad670bdbf28fed3302fbb56a4372fea2958776a6 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x1bfe438f0af0198621762cf84785e31e60a9cb2fa3db665067b1fe333651ee18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) 5-6b one week after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 11? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Fed decreas... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Mar 28? | 69,621,075 | 69,621,127 |
e701e6fa2067636431c90594e5de1f45b82d5ebe | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x75e55a92fc1f68265a6739c8d51c6e12dcbaf3295831620f71df30a29671ea83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 11? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6953350079167255
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 20-30% on the EU by June 30? | 69,845,126 | 69,845,126 |
10b24cf924adcd6e030946b13b90347f32e7d7a1 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0xc2846f35e85eb09a094edbd4e93e345d3c682dc0436615adc27122222fccbd81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6953350079167255
2. Question: Will the US add less than 100,000 jobs in October? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 0.670116 | how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | 69,846,175 | 71,896,503 |
5930931719ae816d64ec77dbf2ec9f87fa5f444b | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x8e9b6942b4dac3117dadfacac2edb390b6d62d59c14152774bb5fcd983fc134e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add less than 100,000 jobs in October? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8824196798909266
3. Ques... | no | 0.002652 | how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? | 69,976,316 | 76,326,254 |
579fa628775aabbd0926c59b5aa760d7a07402ad | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x89936e03bd1d00ffe1764297f18298079f3465677af8ef38b1119b3b429b7469 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8824196798909266
2. Question: Iran strike on Israel by Nov 8? | Event: iran-strike-on-israel-by-nov-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: No change in F... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Apr 11? | 70,186,805 | 70,186,805 |
ad0d3231499e16a98d8fb9abbd80dd00ec264f6d | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x9260b682e93bdcdee74468513139b917d87a033e6f576b8f203942b36177377e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Iran strike on Israel by Nov 8? | Event: iran-strike-on-israel-by-nov-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 2.061718482754214e-05
3. Question: Will Bitcoin... | yes | 1 | ecb-interest-rates-april-2025 | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease? | 70,423,909 | 70,423,909 |
7ade4e24659ffffa0462c261371233fdb69b3149 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0xa90d2e947583a50964efe154c9e5464eeb71f49effc0d401a85649b2fcec6dd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 2.061718482754214e-05
2. Question: Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? | Event: will-bitcoin-hit-100k-by-november-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7777791424607551
3. Qu... | yes | 0.532753 | next-government-of-canada | Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? | 70,878,948 | 71,734,709 |
0bed328cea0250b712bfbe91760461d5524e9b3d | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x7751d71ddaca43d313c5f9b0be026763c251461d2ed58b8373aabde01ac7e331 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? | Event: will-bitcoin-hit-100k-by-november-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7777791424607551
2. Question: Will the US gain between 200-250k jobs in November? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trudeau resigns bef... | no | 0.000005 | canada-election-of-seats-margin-of-victory | Will the Liberal Party win by 50–74 seats? | 70,883,483 | 70,883,483 |
01f5c0c276270893de12b80d586ec90a614a4564 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0xa750ac8a4f0a6b12cc18dc4e88b60597e95be12fabf758ec4b6f4f0b037c0987 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US gain between 200-250k jobs in November? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trudeau resigns before February? | Event: trudeau-resigns-before-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6487799417338798
3. Question: Will Bloc Québécois wi... | no | 0 | will-trump-congratulate-canada-election-winner-by-tuesday | Will Trump congratulate Canada election winner by Tuesday? | 70,915,810 | 70,943,670 |
e406d501586d935d55ec7cd1d19274493513b57a | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x248e99fe61d3962ab8754541ea4bf9075e182934fff736b7a5c0a7630f935752 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trudeau resigns before February? | Event: trudeau-resigns-before-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6487799417338798
2. Question: Will Bloc Québécois win the second most seats in the next Canadian election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-canadian-election | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-27 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on May 27? | 72,043,806 | 72,043,806 |
158a680a80be933d5c69e76a245afbf0cabbe3b9 | 0x386d17027f1c9bcde34c9c12ada287ef950f9bb6 | 0x28ddb5d63c4fb81f708c43ec4d8c12e0bd8997b9898fdd0c0a822a8400db1b11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bloc Québécois win the second most seats in the next Canadian election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-canadian-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8271456877672333
2. Question: Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Event: how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Choice: no | C... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 30? | 72,163,534 | 72,163,534 |
d6cf03a0cb1e6d81f2c8b2347c50f12944eabd8a | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0x4608e77181e31ea47bc5fa13499ca568ec7d9a32dd3b3ec74f78620caed5f7a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31?
Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | 78,412,781 | 78,412,781 |
5854730ab285a16131908d5a3a7f6f52d387d2e4 | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0xd8cd99f1c50d0fb835dc151898747f7464b6c3398ff04dd12323d15fc321a342 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02?
Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"ch... | no | 1 | epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | 78,507,321 | 78,507,321 |
ee85506b2f7e28be3e22122c29d70bf5bf71e5c7 | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0x1cfaa72f5b9d22a71553dc845752f5aeaa6ce1bb89664172222c8dc7b4fddc4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06?
Event: uel... | no | 1 | uel-bol1-bra1-2025-11-06 | Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | 78,687,589 | 78,687,589 |
a74cd6e7332e37c40e3f90d0d2fcd04d0e707e4b | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0x378e6191c43f1cc455acec04daae14cc1354d258999c3787487d98090cef818a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | no | 1 | uel-ast4-mta1-2025-11-06 | Will Aston Villa FC vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv end in a draw? | 78,687,589 | 78,687,589 |
57eacfa3fd0e8ca0bdbc348e417174e57a092b01 | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0x60af34ed01d9f791d5d0c818aa448a5cd4a68e19b71b9508ccb184e5a3f9e921 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | no | 1 | uel-bas1-ste1-2025-11-06 | Will FCSB win on 2025-11-06? | 78,687,589 | 78,687,589 |
1c997253cd3b942fcac6848c479b14ece400d94a | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0xabc1e4d9e9bf530382b8a3966f59fe20260701e9dbaf4a13b942136f13442be0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | no | 1 | bun-b04-hei-2025-11-08 | Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-11-08? | 78,764,488 | 78,764,488 |
702af96c331303245b1dda216978dc1c2d4d3261 | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0xef0f0f5194f7042fc5a499d255638c0390c39e96c07171f36417c465b7d3edf1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | yes | 1 | lal-sev-osa-2025-11-08 | Will Sevilla win on 2025-11-08? | 78,764,488 | 78,764,488 |
a41ae829881f5d58186ed2546aa3a7f7b52f0f2c | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0x6d7e815e4d0acc8274709aae19f5a3391f476300dfc9de7ec618fdb8c9b8cff4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | no | 1 | sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Will Udinese win on 2025-11-09? | 78,815,014 | 78,815,014 |
6dfcfd83f2dfe9e070551a05e21024cf8beec3fd | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0x83c2d38b100d4c59ef8021abdd4bfd0fa2ff01445b8c689e63be1b77c590d884 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-bou-2025-11-09 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-09? | 78,815,014 | 78,815,014 |
af0e34e0f797adb93f3b789400649e98326e5f7a | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0x050296d99e0d6ea2d63b5a7976ca773e246c17ea6f99dc1c07c5dceb1a2ad344 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | no | 1 | sea-int-laz-2025-11-09 | Will Lazio win on 2025-11-09? | 78,837,488 | 78,837,488 |
789f76999eed4f218dd16c99b9db087ce84d964f | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0x7ddfc6a1e319f0bb6c1a91a2d2c2a853eee8a0d0acb434d5d08c03f867a35c64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | no | 1 | elc-bri-bbr-2025-11-04 | Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2025-11-04? | 78,923,332 | 78,923,332 |
3249e89b13b5957d08247270d783ed6e1a35eb96 | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0x8f07b5288cfdadab32255a48533225e2a0e3e123a285c564dfb470d832dfd4cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | no | 1 | col-aek1-shr-2025-11-06 | Will AEK vs. Shamrock Rovers FC end in a draw? | 78,923,332 | 78,923,332 |
24aae6483bcdb10b30d5fc19a3cb9ace1716c77f | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0xadd5fec866acd7c17b3beff937f60f0eeae9cf3a7d334bb3df4ce5f40b333b2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | yes | 1 | elc-she-qpr-2025-11-08 | Will Sheffield United FC win on 2025-11-08? | 78,923,332 | 78,923,332 |
c4c7ce94bd2a32196022f59279b345f0e72d3f5d | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0xfd9fc2f6042d13525da73631fbc8df59aa8ed12221dd0ddea94bf8ee51cfe9af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | no | 1 | elc-lei-mid-2025-11-04 | Will Leicester City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? | 78,923,332 | 78,923,332 |
6b4c60b6b1bb7517f83701f8057f8ce246ac706d | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0xfe58b0231dcdca84e8f61fe77bd5f8555ceaa9f7b001ffd6ab2f4749da0b6e4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | yes | 1 | fl1-lor-tou-2025-11-09 | Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-11-09? | 78,923,332 | 78,923,332 |
3d79007ad25f15bd74a8b3c3316148504cab5bd7 | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0x8b5aef1038204c535af22bea11b7979520cfa6c045ad1f5f8f38dc90634d1754 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | yes | 1 | fif-rus-per-2025-11-12 | Will Russia vs. Peru end in a draw? | 78,946,163 | 78,946,163 |
bd6fb97a96c5ed9338266bef36b0e3ff4668a3ac | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0x97ff2647eead48deda01ad7d5b504e2e51a410e619cec2039bddbe0a03bcb36d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | no | 1 | bra-cam-fec-2025-11-12 | Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-11-12? | 78,967,245 | 78,967,245 |
0dd2b51317fe2f8a21214cab799e108e513a3629 | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0xefbfb13a7bb5b8c397e40e54bd9306e1499bbc062db3daf8cfea320d50b06cda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | no | 1 | caf-nga-gab-2025-11-13 | Will Nigeria win on 2025-11-13? | 78,984,218 | 78,984,218 |
5d73f970e3d2267b16c1444bcedf4dc3744faf28 | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0x2dd01568def1d8f8d3d748eceda4e53d240aeeeac83278e0a5417c6f1fed37c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | yes | 1 | uef-tur-bul-2025-11-15 | Will Türkiye win on 2025-11-15? | 79,073,850 | 79,073,850 |
b4a898f6f1224a0a81c48ea779fcf0be14ac4a6b | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0xda49a81339ef7471d571a54b125dfd0e13016c31c5a90f1a6f1f19e6c35b01db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | yes | 1 | uef-geo-esp-2025-11-15 | Will Spain win on 2025-11-15? | 79,073,850 | 79,073,850 |
a3420f98235f525a276484fea1e9037ab7a2ee7a | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0x2e90ffa716434d060b54095848137bad0c46a96bf94d119519bf236cc6a21c04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | yes | 1 | bra-flu-fla-2025-11-19 | Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-11-19? | 79,270,790 | 79,270,790 |
9b59520f8fb7ae1ee2bdea027dd8e8eec164cc9f | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0x4782a916f605e7074d71084256846640628886306ca66eae164f1ea812fc1a15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | no | 1 | bra-bah-fec-2025-11-20 | Will EC Bahia vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? | 79,294,750 | 79,294,750 |
3927e439f6a1559a5e2c2419c7384e21eeb85c94 | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0x4177a014cfb058834d13d6b2e8d79df3e4c5930a82754d32b9465e0a5e745c1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | no | 1 | bra-csc-int-2025-11-20 | Will Ceará SC vs. SC Internacional end in a draw? | 79,313,135 | 79,313,135 |
03299363077cb3b2942b616989df5445b36ff29b | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0x594354095c2d479f27f16b961838db309ab16fb3140a79d498be5d6b202581cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | yes | 1 | bra-csc-int-2025-11-20 | Will Ceará SC win on 2025-11-20? | 79,320,208 | 79,320,208 |
c8e34895c83edc6ec97563f76749f3e38333a22e | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0x95f434ebffd15d953b8a8738eb7b9b407f3eee29671e932d72450cee241840ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | no | 1 | bra-juv-cru-2025-11-20 | Will EC Juventude vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw? | 79,320,208 | 79,320,208 |
a97ebe3dcdb80ffb99b2fd87982bd3f355e3b2e6 | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0x050709875e362fb2d6da2d08c16d0a4fe3ef1de38275924928976afa3942ce13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | yes | 1 | spl-kho-haz-2025-11-21 | Will Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Hazem SC end in a draw? | 79,327,320 | 79,327,320 |
aeba652b2fa581375e5bd411b6cb53b9e59d7509 | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0x6aab5b07e8f32b0d35ee3d9a990b8fe98681641985ad059d931da2c4c99aad2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | yes | 1 | spl-ith-riy-2025-11-21 | Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club win on 2025-11-21? | 79,327,320 | 79,327,320 |
a82e806d5e0af6e6fd9a0776e2f262125486f70b | 0x38abd798e4f62e69f45aaa76124241aac8c975ff | 0xdbe19d8e22866bade94ae85d59a11749100de7b9dd6655527ff54cbb4dd1584e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-bol1-bra1-... | yes | 1 | spl-kho-haz-2025-11-21 | Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2025-11-21? | 79,327,320 | 79,327,320 |
4b85267dad46c8312b69a717d2d45acad0746476 | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x5dbe1834f4610b1e60794d493a277f820f015a9b13af902f297d82594156ffcb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona?
Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | 73,726,996 | 73,726,996 |
8e71f1a5b0aa3cb635eba8932c6f252f9113185d | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0xfd67cefaef51232de4c5ece6b272d09f2f964bba493db93dbaabc7955f66540d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17?
Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice... | no | 1 | ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | 76,600,407 | 76,600,407 |
60a229b7e827285aa1785c24bc614716cf4e2b6a | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0xa7745cb3b02cdf0f1b73a008924dddcb98217cce0016351a2355955b9da91067 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18?
Event:... | no | 1 | ucl-new-bar-2025-09-18 | Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | 76,676,718 | 76,676,718 |
4046612777f2a4b873e21abdd90b1705c99da4af | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x8a65d6d3a472606b167bfa8544faba42a29616afb086884b883127955d3564ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | yes | 1 | uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | 77,243,710 | 77,243,710 |
8eaca96fea7d4fe935d693a7183c04a1a0ed95a5 | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0xdd7a014a732fcf086f75849e068903dc70bb19f06f8c90a8146b8f23c7a1d03e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | no | 1 | lal-bil-mal-2025-10-04 | Will Mallorca win on 2025-10-04? | 77,266,560 | 77,266,560 |
01ee1988f25dcbb590e378f8b34035c2b34db2a7 | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0xe0b228e82e6b3009a0fce339713a8e16302cf7dcf2077704075823b3a73c3730 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | no | 1 | lal-ovi-lev-2025-10-04 | Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-10-04? | 77,266,560 | 77,266,560 |
aa8d6d5dc349ab4354345f50644e2a229808f10c | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x4434bd2753c24257ab8a7b763b967e9310cdb4ad26a408f6eea370920f35faec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | yes | 1 | lal-rea-vil-2025-10-04 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-04? | 77,281,488 | 77,281,488 |
8ae8b447b86169f9780be3681a720d10c67528b4 | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0xa8476cbcdc9a8dbf14789c9c4fcd991854d98dcbfdd14ed5f10972692ee3bfb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | no | 1 | lal-ala-elc-2025-10-05 | Will Elche CF win on 2025-10-05? | 77,323,184 | 77,323,184 |
132e63bc5813f11576eeb34bea6b729487a1a864 | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x358757d937cb1b333f82514ba8cbf5527b1c4a8afe516718f6165cfbfd459aea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | no | 1 | fif-eng-wal-2025-10-09 | Will Wales win on 2025-10-09? | 77,478,959 | 77,478,959 |
34440010ac4a73474d84eef6f43fc24eb4b46e9c | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x7344406c2c33255afc25b7bde3c5791fa7bb5f980023a0f5a961e014ffe2ed62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | yes | 1 | uef-mal-nld-2025-10-09 | Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-09? | 77,478,959 | 77,478,959 |
c1ffb4f8c660b6d5aa80baf51f06f6b4351b2a6a | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x9b79fada0fce12163e5595a773a68a0458ba549419cbba323ea3d330cb82fe99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | yes | 1 | uef-aut-smr-2025-10-09 | Will Austria win on 2025-10-09? | 77,478,959 | 77,478,959 |
4ac06bf9d774ca4f5e71c56fa5e97a2dec44dbb1 | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x810d667bb756e18f5d4434b15857b33d4d609fa72741ec15db476f9c5183429f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | no | 1 | uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Will Georgia win on 2025-10-11? | 77,573,336 | 77,573,336 |
1754c42c1cb58f3c8b433c742ff49e0e683ea74e | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x9825f7716c38f9b2e7e15432e1c1ad2bb1bb5f254a668d09336b91ddd0659e3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | yes | 1 | uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | 77,573,336 | 77,573,336 |
b050294b79aedf38dc0e5880cfbe591b2e62603c | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x469fa41bae551f8df20dc68c35737ae57bc26730f8d14045e2626dad32ed22fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | yes | 1 | uef-hrv-gib-2025-10-12 | Will Croatia win on 2025-10-12? | 77,624,057 | 77,624,057 |
8a43db62d6e346efe53d173cf572bc96117407a5 | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x77927e301fed9124438e246f70ecd4a3160ad0aa7ea5fc091bd1bd1211d46be4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | no | 1 | uef-smr-cyp-2025-10-12 | Will San Marino win on 2025-10-12? | 77,624,057 | 77,624,057 |
5dfe529bc7aa9276fd775cf8d5d087bfd2dd0d38 | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x15dd8d248404d9b70f9ee58f4e85f09fa22cc39c06338ae482053789e0b595bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | yes | 1 | uef-ita-isr-2025-10-14 | Will Italy win on 2025-10-14? | 77,706,609 | 77,706,609 |
46ac4804e2d10f735975363d6a8e622b387e3627 | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x64c75058dc333f0b8f7928483d4e544abbf641f12c07cf5def5f4df28aceaafc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | yes | 1 | uef-esp-bul-2025-10-14 | Will Spain win on 2025-10-14? | 77,706,609 | 77,706,609 |
8ed0aa1db97b8424778ab76f0e910bdbb66cf057 | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x9f4cb89f8da190d6c6f214501c33cf2d06c55941e1b6cd27ed2ed45f5421dc04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | no | 1 | lal-sev-mal-2025-10-18 | Will Sevilla win on 2025-10-18? | 77,859,659 | 77,859,659 |
9bfb8e79c0fddc6ef1138d0f757e106a0faa3811 | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x3b5eac0c21dd4cc3027a0f650a522c2586e2f10ecf8daef9e030730f57657c94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | no | 1 | lal-mad-osa-2025-10-18 | Will Osasuna win on 2025-10-18? | 77,875,425 | 77,875,425 |
3527a1994fd48f1615e72a1c0ecf4c0f35635c11 | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x473b561753e5a80e8d3c6de1d093da4640305b76d9d11486c13b7830a84d7c9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | yes | 1 | lal-rea-bar-2025-10-26 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? | 78,204,671 | 78,204,671 |
5f58b51d0a2aa669e5c27169b81940262dee291a | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x6b05c24e62a2260d3cea682c22c826fc86b7de74187281a443ba7538f9bc2950 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | no | 1 | cdr-our-ovi-2025-10-28 | Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-10-28? | 78,308,473 | 78,308,473 |
49cb187dfcba5f24ea202a2d2f427f51f6787b9a | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x0eb0d3c30973d7aefbbcc646ae090b7c03afd2989bf16645e4cf7e26ebec7427 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | no | 1 | epl-liv-mun-2025-10-19 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-19? | 78,312,811 | 78,312,811 |
dc45deac6005a1a924e1efdd1a3d9a120bf35af2 | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x1a01c8d11817883ace3fc008530644cc988443e76b958afbb67bf74fb4a9239e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | no | 1 | uef-swe-kvx-2025-10-13 | Will Kosovo win on 2025-10-13? | 78,312,811 | 78,312,811 |
e5c47cd3270064fec20be77af8caf52fb68ed63c | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x3937f9826fb8cbf53c15887b96de929d594efc1339117c8de22661970afd9886 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | no | 1 | lal-gir-lev-2025-09-20 | Will Levante UD win on 2025-09-20? | 78,312,811 | 78,312,811 |
ad0a10fde15ea31ed0a9b4e4bd2fed6a329a883d | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x3c44e8ad76237bdac03612785211baf3bc47c77424ebeea44c6ac2aa0b3a7689 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-gir-2025-09-14 | Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-09-14? | 78,312,811 | 78,312,811 |
3ce909b1c7950efffa2b3c10403ca47aaa6ce729 | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x5ce751066d5a63c8231cdc0cf6f209a8325458a52fc8304e8e5f64d369170c44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | yes | 1 | lal-lev-rea-2025-09-23 | Will Levante UD win on 2025-09-23? | 78,312,811 | 78,312,811 |
be291cd3d9d68329e8fa0d700c961388f8d5bcf4 | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x8fab7c2001cbfde26c93a5d5842b670bfca12556a7e3f1f78d1f3ef61837bff0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | no | 1 | lal-vil-osa-2025-09-20 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-20? | 78,312,811 | 78,312,811 |
ee651882db44a9ac810b8d07eadb1736ce65248b | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0xc8850392d2d57c00f4d81ff77ff62ff877c2154c4e689146fb636b63c196b994 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | no | 1 | lal-gir-val-2025-10-04 | Will Girona win on 2025-10-04? | 78,312,811 | 78,312,811 |
2a4f795637ef586820fded2b60e9900a75229a61 | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0xd9317f749e000c2e9df79175249ccb5adc563e762c09dbc454c0266064bf7af2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | yes | 1 | lal-mal-mad-2025-09-21 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-21? | 78,312,811 | 78,312,811 |
1a7ad711561b5dd2df80defa388c7ad8703840d6 | 0x38ad0f679556415a5a82b9a2443b6fd91c8480f6 | 0x9c085ff28e4efc81b061dbaea5d6afe28d46dbce19034f7bb97bdd147a920193 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | yes | 1 | lal-sev-bar-2025-10-05 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-05? | 78,312,812 | 78,312,812 |
65848fa82fec66282934531e2ce14e2408365b32 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xe169dfa28b564b6773890561ce45417462bf9e5d97b0d2c6d44e83a1ccf3674e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open?
Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | 75,168,607 | 75,168,607 |
9021578da20c78ed3116876dd2cd1fa9dc005be4 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xc7362bbaaaed3a7f023edc4b69854889a4e396ce2f669fbb92e57a290fd001f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30?
Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | 75,852,283 | 75,852,283 |
a515f34cc163f43e4b9ee2dbde3d888bf68b69ef | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xf3c3f470f9e7e1e0bfa06ce1a940baa48d6b435cf99de1b8737adfd20834dc88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30?
Event: epl... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-bou-2025-08-30 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | 75,852,283 | 75,852,283 |
fb57825026c7c13aaabfd386a6758f6c437fba95 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x8aa2807b3f52230f1e342acf0409de865ed851f8eff601c6ccecee58ef142107 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 7AM ET | 79,224,770 | 79,225,435 |
0e8770a0b6c594509d8b4121ce01e48e61d9c31e | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xbfbdd3bcff584ea99b96ef69e43b596d35762ae53db07dd05f37f8e7f64aeffd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11AM ET | 79,231,873 | 79,235,520 |
a655cecfa0035ccbe18669d876be6aec4b5c2568 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xd455a372abb6699e160adf87cf68cc4e6ce9c527e1069786dbed12b2a0081173 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0.000629 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 1PM ET | 79,235,272 | 79,235,725 |
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