sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2d38f702f0dd0acf5ce512cd89600a8a4af3be96 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x03af10fbacc2dde5f458d907b99b4cc7fd5697ea6c3ec5e6c5dfbad0b2111ce3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 2PM ET | 79,237,232 | 79,398,499 |
a35222b2e4761b6c9915dfdf235211c5a0c15108 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xa1dde936545d723fc5b9c241c7c0465ab8c2a83e43f4d29df1bfb8b977f55ed1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 5PM ET | 79,242,625 | 79,242,746 |
14084e3453de59b9bdcd7d1e5ca579ed0a4efe0b | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x99311a09c2481d8b384672b1b7c823438efa48d6ded916f8625440da4d44aa5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 6AM ET | 79,267,024 | 79,267,024 |
a5c55625a8492d9faea87270e74086b15245a3f1 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x56c816997a4a1cb3adc3a658d6cf8e2e2ea0ef00f3fb655c3b58ec98ad29e7ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0.000526 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 11AM ET | 79,491,637 | 79,491,637 |
9d342aa06786ecf2998d99147c93fce91673233f | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x9cc97a2ae854796b3bb04417b1497d65a572a8e9cc9083d92211a040b472c1cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | up | 0.000003 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 12PM ET | 79,492,981 | 79,492,981 |
880144becf2cab150c7a79a9eb41059f45279c87 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x0f121c4aaaf29c57eb7a7a88c4b2afd6f43b637766b0781899d01779832912e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | up | 0.000095 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-1-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 12PM ET | 79,751,856 | 79,752,402 |
543363ebe259d7f540b5d21f6924e9663fb876ac | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x80df3bfb1eff3bc49aec0b91b7af6457fa07a95018cd5325595a598af0b1cf29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-1-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 2PM ET | 79,757,083 | 79,758,934 |
1e30d3c9bed37cf890bee9350e4a5d594b8d2511 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xd17d4ec7fc87557169f077c707e9748d64889f98eb9453d511107fcb3337957f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-1-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 3PM ET | 79,758,883 | 79,761,021 |
14e56bdbad5dd5da86b46124a285b3c4419234dd | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xb378c46d9cb208e19940195b47304aed5393f9826d9633ccc8950dd6d8a0dde0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | up | 0.000005 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-1-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 4PM ET | 79,758,934 | 79,759,931 |
f832117b3296ce4c4ed1938e32f3de69fbbacd6b | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xd44364c551633793ffc5d898c3aa501fc38c4ae3ed790fa65e24f6c1d912d254 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-1-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 5PM ET | 79,762,513 | 79,782,898 |
0fe21b9ecc90a9b03a4699155f5083b5b8a61cb9 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x521c771b40f72cecf92ec63e75df5f07ff95ff9125923d3dc306b7da257866fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-1-6pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 6PM ET | 79,762,573 | 79,764,484 |
021db0be981394e6d7dab0f619b623332a1dfad2 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x08dcc3a3589872e9ed4e861d8619befac019466422755e35edf10cf6db811c00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 5AM ET | 79,784,112 | 79,787,958 |
3e88656d3bfee54acf4e8c5af7b23e9029bd9839 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x7afce6916c4cd7337919573ac8aa121bef39fdde4ab2678389dc78194b5c3cce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 7AM ET | 79,787,712 | 79,793,205 |
4069405d6976cf1c41dfbbaecae45f0bd571372a | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x8382a486adfc172e536b6964323e98b703b92202b6a015a0f0161ca3968ebdfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | up | 0.088934 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 6AM ET | 79,788,544 | 79,788,544 |
552dd5a98c6a3201ae42b6a2eb64a17b8a93caaa | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x4ada419adb1bbe9ec7db8141aad91e333ebee1c2d211858732339940165c4860 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 8AM ET | 79,789,512 | 79,793,205 |
9a0e0c269bdf18991274819155da79b8809ae182 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x5654bbc8c96eee8a15b0129a13ceb45b598f4d12d24f9b64dbb860e015541cc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 11AM ET | 79,794,957 | 79,797,182 |
67162f5a5b1c883a1d3e62fbf456b7ece44c89de | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xc17e0834ca68d179b26cb019c4b85555da77762210f9cb9520ab1628b0f9bd60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 12PM ET | 79,796,712 | 79,798,812 |
f23a087cc02f6d571aee8d62ccac809057b6f9a2 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x328c58b4bc6f4e9cd21a8ae48941ba4c44ecfbb35695e346cb721e78589a85e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 1PM ET | 79,798,512 | 79,802,806 |
85e277e066bb428b0ba2ade89f2fb6c18c392390 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xba431ff5d2519be056c83408957eceaf73f00aa2247ef3a936de70b62e22f574 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 2PM ET | 79,800,312 | 79,802,772 |
612894de83d47f2bd803ec534ca0521e1b67934f | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xcab8289a7618db86f60c876438b6dd9e211eeacfe361aed0f2bd98b13584b62c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 3PM ET | 79,802,111 | 79,836,766 |
7de774abb502e720bf0da75cabcf0076246cb1ef | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xf4f1e47947246ed0cf3f88ef2c72b07dcde792f51aa5198f526d1ea7a3432031 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 4PM ET | 79,803,911 | 79,826,307 |
cd0561a84763b4e890cc46ff5c5b63f43ff6ccf0 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x555f952a63d958c88cd3973ddbada4cf576031ce3c09b96a40c50710e378f7aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 3AM ET | 79,823,712 | 79,826,307 |
33b54be5bb904d3ec8f5ef12642d2544625ffa9c | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xee6a1f72510dd9f44aaff6574d7e2a383d2f8f7b18e495f8ec60482478e3da25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 4AM ET | 79,825,512 | 79,828,012 |
2b46048e74f2d822812bc003ec6218cf5e5aaec3 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x82d53dd09089e6b34ded03e988b3226dbe5c5d6d859eb070c54caf029b9063ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 5AM ET | 79,827,312 | 79,829,475 |
007d1ef2d92313cb0acc56386fd4673c0e93dab5 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xd835538bebb0ec3729cd1235daf91f63ec5ead669a3197184cf79ea03acca448 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Knapp win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? | Event: pga-tour-3m-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-20... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 6AM ET | 79,829,112 | 79,831,113 |
5dc5078ee0afc78877737ca1b4dc76fc0cffdc07 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x0c3b2717884ac38e56c774cadeb9bb5c6996e6c03af1a802d7a66b9a95c3fd98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-no... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 8AM ET | 79,832,802 | 79,836,669 |
67afa5591d839d25813d4f433f417900027fa3f3 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x9b0a5269120391654993753f1335ffd084b6a28b64524adc4ae06f93dfe536a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11AM ET | Ev... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 9AM ET | 79,834,602 | 79,836,669 |
b3ccfd9d346ef2c997b67e9e5fcc8deefe57a85e | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x11efedb5864f5b9c86d68ff7e6fcb6e1442b1a0add47e2f980f0b45fda697082 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 10AM ET | 79,836,402 | 79,838,581 |
076ae30844b36992c10be52f51e694f11fb6b083 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x1f1613731ac8e879812a81ad47547462eaf8a346fd80fa76b53c1f5d09b3b5d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0006290207505226086
3. Question: Bitco... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 11AM ET | 79,838,202 | 79,841,580 |
791f7d2bda8458f9ba795d7f594df1a0809d7af9 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xa47f2be288792869114a9a8a92a1d62bafa108811b72c447d48144fc2ebc4494 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0006290207505226086
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 12PM ET | 79,840,002 | 79,842,925 |
e40d60343bb6b73f27899aa1095d6d18091e51cc | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xd3abd4ed28ad800dad36a3968526f61fa3e10797a2166fdddc7f478ab386ccc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | down | 0.01061 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 1PM ET | 79,841,802 | 79,841,802 |
8dc306ee4a6a5701e5ebd5becd95ca97eb738842 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x7f105b76b23de56b9a34866817e62d44fa0c3dde10aa6e115b7c6b08778a4c48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 2PM ET | 79,843,602 | 79,846,847 |
e40bd3e6263612833006a71d502621114a128b6d | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xb4d4bb86c4d65732c8a4766d0815a145f4239e7cef00b3d1744b809cc8480646 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0005259677408757622
3. Question: Bitco... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 5PM ET | 79,849,002 | 79,870,097 |
eb574315ca6b14eb78bc916fb9a1d7c45c07e616 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x44b9deba80b5783a573995ebfba48bb304e6175757950426150e42c254f7a81f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0005259677408757622
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 2.696435373106549e-06
... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-6pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 6PM ET | 79,850,801 | 79,870,097 |
b0fa7c8e0bc443bf955a6793e86fea89626dc07b | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x8517500129e630b08a7061e1e512aaa7cdf1bcd6ee96daf8f117315d7814eb75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 2.696435373106549e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-1-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 9.51946082045872e-05
3. Qu... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-7pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 7PM ET | 79,852,601 | 79,870,097 |
a310f50e6b61acc4036b82b3c03935560fed0e49 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x8b3a9d6ca57d3a00707259978dd88613c2628c7f43f457e474548d3d058ba2f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-1-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 9.51946082045872e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-1-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up o... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 8PM ET | 79,854,401 | 79,870,097 |
521ec25ad107a177fa0c71bc7cfe9dfe2b127f45 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xfe8e67eaafdf5db40a2fa94d9a4fdcb06a1c929ab2b9b5e465ad4560d6b35ffd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-1-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-1-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December... | down | 0.052304 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 9PM ET | 79,856,201 | 79,856,201 |
d0dff70cb39702ae61a4d5f0f5bebb209c9d65c8 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xcd7ec82310f9920e496fa0dd83da4c4fba9e87711bbf6cd3b8dcb8280c5cbc30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-1-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-1-4pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.40264373692037e-06
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 10PM ET | 79,858,001 | 79,870,097 |
bc9517041ce5f82bcad72173b2e2aa0d78d930df | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x2fdfd666fb87a7337f50620ba99d6cc12321cdec55bafed99ab67b54cfa7bab4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-1-4pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.40264373692037e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-1-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 11PM ET | 79,859,801 | 79,870,097 |
4424d3b37525fb5f7615f6fdfcd8cac33d7a1759 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x4813f66bd7d25fc82534c936ff96b7d52a471aaaf4dd66023efcc5db97865f26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-1-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-1-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-4-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 12AM ET | 79,861,601 | 79,870,097 |
1378151094216de3274e87f800d7cc8bee4929ce | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x44479e90f38a119d097b0225be0085919ab23dbedfeb7a17b5c458a958441d78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-1-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-4-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 1AM ET | 79,863,401 | 79,870,097 |
95bc4b8f5cc5ad8203538a7c3535908e7681b160 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xfdae3ea04eae65ef93b978b92587bc930cccb10381da21268ecf7a7fcafadb71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December... | down | 0.370301 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-4-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 3AM ET | 79,867,001 | 79,870,097 |
f9e591f130025211778660c24ba5d38d621aebce | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xc8735bac0e15ca043dd1da86debc329ebb6ebb5e613b6854b07877dea4885653 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.08893429655277525
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or D... | down | 0.115326 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-4-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 4AM ET | 79,868,802 | 79,868,802 |
8e61faf8acd681f92d8d3d403d76df27b20ae1cf | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xf2acfa4fbc3f2b4e07ce0440ac08e7da8bcb487b7934171ee1273ad070fa85df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.08893429655277525
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or D... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-4-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 5AM ET | 79,870,602 | 79,873,068 |
96ea10ce85b02058d0c74e82cbdf49e37006528c | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xaf6d48ede58de616e1d3e6a187f4262ab81dba8beb9dfdab02b8678decef33fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Decemb... | up | 0.048074 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-4-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 6AM ET | 79,872,402 | 79,875,280 |
63a853999923788f7a11faab0ff3b4c64688442a | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0xddb704a2e00efc0471c6c557c166ad6f3dc7727b8a4f8a4915c208b0298bd1cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Dece... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-4-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 7AM ET | 79,874,202 | 79,877,234 |
7fb076f11507060cbbc5abb868866adde88be25b | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x84aeba40194f957de28e4f9de3eef3065ceeb26d15eb0107c8514d13f776320d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Decemb... | up | 0.071652 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-4-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 8AM ET | 79,876,001 | 79,876,001 |
1b58e0f04d9806fd31822a6522329d5127740879 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x58a725b39915e4fc6e04fad7944c52be86a72f5999ab5173ca0cec79d4ae39d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-4-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 9AM ET | 79,877,802 | 79,893,750 |
2d63d078bfefea9dbe405456312729d923aa54de | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x727b1489eafc6bcb53419e039540b6897d4834edc20330ebdac80d3a9c0d4d4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December... | down | 0.203372 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 3PM ET | 79,881,367 | 79,881,367 |
259e5d5bf9e12f0df753dbb047c336bfcf1b4d00 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x0b37b98bba94464eae83e1b1b8d48e42c7dfa5aa4e84ce8fc6ef322f88fa727b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-4-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 11AM ET | 79,881,401 | 79,893,750 |
91a5f77aa1d3f5ebafe8a77a6d4366b7209903bc | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x1d08e0dc5f200882adbf68274b60e6a57bf5634bb9cfe009adb500976094fee9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-2-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-4-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 12PM ET | 79,883,201 | 79,893,342 |
3e5e95ed7ecbcb6c5b23340699904b00b0873248 | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x33538b269bc219fa10260d02672490c3d3c0ad6970e261d6779eb6059731191e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-4-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 1PM ET | 79,885,001 | 79,893,342 |
23fa646b5bb1dfa85d39eaabc85873df46bada0c | 0x38c6fd3ae5db3217840f71541c949011b651e912 | 0x6ff905c6644a7ec395701ecfc0700122fbb2f12ee0f8fd90cedbf81721dd3f71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - December... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-4-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 2PM ET | 79,886,802 | 79,893,342 |
da1b1250fcd4929d1e7259306404e7bf20554601 | 0x38cddfa012ba69fb29daadde922f085777c4a557 | 0x7949174f6cb3b0781fbd1a63a51fb7d2e72ac2d7cff1628f2c62477b64734bff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Event: will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 0.909119 | will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | 65,449,635 | 65,738,361 |
5f4906c9401f94d8d403d3afbfcd058c5a4f4de3 | 0x38cddfa012ba69fb29daadde922f085777c4a557 | 0x73ea7178ac4b4c296f7736a50be8f6ca65acc81c5ccf6e42ea388b04815e895f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Event: will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9091193066721611
Target market:
Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60?
Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target ... | no | 1 | sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | 65,857,553 | 65,857,553 |
62624995f7bc0e543f4c84f9e1f161cab434aa95 | 0x38cddfa012ba69fb29daadde922f085777c4a557 | 0x1674811cafd247b0884098f871117ee6a0d73ce4a39985c4968459c902041b44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Event: will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9091193066721611
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will 'Sonic... | no | 1 | sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | 65,857,568 | 65,857,568 |
51e7729f6d94a907f6c2cd653828fe6f5fd1989d | 0x38cddfa012ba69fb29daadde922f085777c4a557 | 0xcc57afe2847987ea4a14c60c10876625e7c8a76010987d9109ec299022c7d2a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Event: will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9091193066721611
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross les... | no | 1 | how-many-ballots-to-elect-next-speaker | Will the next US Speaker be elected in two ballots? | 66,274,408 | 66,274,408 |
edcd0eefa9d6e1b8cb00d1aab5852be34f3338af | 0x38cddfa012ba69fb29daadde922f085777c4a557 | 0xfc6ca5aa7f9627a4def6eee275f501a62b9fed52d8fd2b4a8914f65fc376155a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Event: will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9091193066721611
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross les... | no | 1 | how-many-votes-will-mike-johnson-get-on-first-ballot | 210 or fewer votes for Mike Johnson to be Speaker on first ballot? | 66,274,928 | 66,274,928 |
c29c92bd9abc4092db778912072842d7bafdac9c | 0x38cddfa012ba69fb29daadde922f085777c4a557 | 0x3683f32633bec2cf00f3314f8472a2ef1496ef12f05a50f25fef678921fe4ec9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Event: will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9091193066721611
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross les... | no | 1 | how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Will Trump's inaugural address be 2,200-2,400 words? | 67,034,514 | 67,034,514 |
33db7f44999a881418283eaaef0b8e5b8e93a205 | 0x38cddfa012ba69fb29daadde922f085777c4a557 | 0x6b28105f897bc1d758ce8a4b719b7712a4ce00c874dab813659a91fb2420b5ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Event: will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9091193066721611
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross les... | no | 1 | how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Will Trump's inaugural address be 2,000-2,200 words? | 67,034,514 | 67,034,514 |
5fd59162fe86f3a62ec0753736ffabdbf027ce6f | 0x38cddfa012ba69fb29daadde922f085777c4a557 | 0x8566865c2f3a559a5b58e045289cd6437ad1d5437fee535b26d18d3b6b950afc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Event: will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9091193066721611
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross les... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | 67,034,514 | 67,034,514 |
8cf30c1deb86ec06982e52fa3a91935d4c3b0c76 | 0x38cddfa012ba69fb29daadde922f085777c4a557 | 0x901160addc5d38bb7f51c8dc6bb6424c93787f58df4e645e42161345b27bb0e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Event: will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9091193066721611
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross les... | no | 1 | how-many-democratic-senators-vote-for-laken-riley-act | Will 24 or more Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act? | 67,034,514 | 67,034,514 |
49d49e3ed75f756abd43f9729645e013cc4d5a52 | 0x38cddfa012ba69fb29daadde922f085777c4a557 | 0x3f9a95011aa5def6192754e9bbe764fc631bffcb2de3d67652e22417eb142662 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Event: will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9091193066721611
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross les... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-22 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 19-20°F on January 22? | 67,034,515 | 67,034,515 |
d2ffb34472320999099a78d58f86bdcd799c3f6a | 0x38cddfa012ba69fb29daadde922f085777c4a557 | 0xe78d55cd1e092efd6185dffa9bb51b5c45072ac1e48a9e0079ee324b8966ab32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Event: will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9091193066721611
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross les... | no | 1 | how-many-trump-cabinet-confirmations-in-january | One Trump Cabinet confirmation in January? | 67,091,570 | 67,091,570 |
a41ed08029bdfa88cc6319525174bd28ef328ca5 | 0x38cddfa012ba69fb29daadde922f085777c4a557 | 0x2cb1a78f1cbbc182b4235fda475a21ae1dcf22bfc29982c9f1e5c30fcee2d7c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Event: will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9091193066721611
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross les... | yes | 0.999926 | who-will-be-trumps-defense-secretary | Will Ron DeSantis be Trump's Defense Secretary? | 67,136,896 | 67,136,896 |
c858ac6e32181a958aceb2f90285aed31cc98f68 | 0x38cddfa012ba69fb29daadde922f085777c4a557 | 0xc14b62b33f01bfbca073994c18d78e935d6d088b99c141901894b18c05e7fc02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Event: will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9091193066721611
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross les... | no | 1 | how-many-trump-cabinet-confirmations-in-january | Three Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? | 67,171,649 | 67,171,649 |
8e99c7f159b433e57427328d2bdbc7dcaef891ae | 0x38cddfa012ba69fb29daadde922f085777c4a557 | 0x134213c6a2c381fbef5a35cebe9bc28fddf970a69f797bddc461238ac0e45678 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Event: will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9091193066721611
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross les... | yes | 1 | how-many-trump-cabinet-confirmations-in-january | Seven Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? | 67,375,902 | 67,375,902 |
a22f0b87e348f0cc5c26da52d929ee3cb0afdb85 | 0x38cddfa012ba69fb29daadde922f085777c4a557 | 0xfc7f3404e1dd23b6d4753642cdaa43cdef1e85f34842a90c80c395d9f3189269 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Event: will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9091193066721611
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross les... | no | 0 | will-america-be-profitable-any-month-in-2025 | Will America be profitable any month in 2025? | 67,386,055 | 67,386,055 |
6c54ff7c24cf89da7512aac2c50b8c9cc0966e2e | 0x38cddfa012ba69fb29daadde922f085777c4a557 | 0x21055987ff62defe5d00416ec84193383b7720f5d9b43fd104022bd9160c2eb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Event: will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9091193066721611
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross les... | yes | 1 | how-many-trump-cabinet-confirmations-in-january | Eight Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? | 67,408,468 | 67,408,468 |
4849fd608e6af85dd6eefcc6f2a9298486f170c9 | 0x38cddfa012ba69fb29daadde922f085777c4a557 | 0xd506363d8c943bb299b14f1253a58527857e3d3d00cd42665b578f182422b208 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Event: will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9091193066721611
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross les... | yes | 1 | trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1? | 67,421,480 | 67,421,480 |
c5989e924c9635dc3a89e9f3013a249d9300644c | 0x38cddfa012ba69fb29daadde922f085777c4a557 | 0x8505d4408bc6373232b6071c32bb0af9381d70f1e8ff4099f7b1a42f19e47790 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Event: will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9091193066721611
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross les... | yes | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard | Will 49 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence? | 67,931,901 | 67,931,901 |
79c0345d87dd71bb954a17294456585ce8991a96 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x58440b8f3702f635b499c226ae3b8d54422737a9346f7d866e239fc33a242abf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?
Event: nba-most-improved-player
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 0.5 | nba-most-improved-player | Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | 65,071,916 | 70,580,967 |
13a5b3cd2a19ee0b427d40312f1074d6bfbec500 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x41471b1e8bf50352291e61b0c80058a79142c7691dc58c307aa81b31178b8b6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
Target market:
Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff?
Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff
Predict the user's choice and confidence for t... | no | 0.000048 | which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | 65,073,402 | 65,220,852 |
01d2db06141355b4c22dae201b05b00853e98629 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xe385951f2b96d2ac30c9259c2207af3692fdbcf650f927b3fa30c68262aa9b2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
Target m... | yes | 0.000147 | will-trump-replace-hegseth-with-desantis | Will Trump replace Hegseth with DeSantis by Friday? | 65,077,266 | 65,077,266 |
304ac1117f9b277cef1670c977037d72749b3407 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xa6aa2586cf605ea29de0620316ec6eb6b86ee47def2da4fbd14a15680ffb2c85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | no | 0.085271 | nba-most-improved-player | Will LaMelo Ball win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | 65,088,685 | 70,580,967 |
961d4b4541c9cbff029a7c68c1fa58d00d62c75e | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x556c9e2fdb278b6578c82c5031cf6cc046c9b1d566687bf9797418f2e5d84b3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | no | 0 | which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Will Penn State make the College Football Playoff? | 65,119,174 | 65,246,250 |
8273e4ea7f7c6fde7794c242dac068932926f80c | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x38362ec5204996ceeb44b566c57c213bc57f3c5cb62d90facd83d13fde800609 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | no | 0 | nba-most-improved-player | Will Jalen Johnson win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | 65,119,174 | 66,083,462 |
9be2940c6b63002d1304df5ff862ff70a79bb257 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xf3ef1a37d97b2fa01161c773eebb0a935e86e7b1e96033d42d6de54157055b17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | no | 0.240506 | which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Will Ohio State make the College Football Playoff? | 65,121,744 | 65,219,665 |
c4bd9c1d18c144fdec455c67d11092e791c2bf1c | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x1ab76b16a62b912683357cf98a43ac69a24858837196068282ce4918957a6c69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | no | 0 | fantasy-football-top-tight-end-2024 | Will George Kittle be the top Fantasy Tight End? | 65,127,764 | 65,141,082 |
659fa6e29b3e4548a3747074dd6f0a7b65705a0c | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xfc72c241faffb027d872559bd75ff5a768072e3571917dd94ffaa73b0ea3e126 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | yes | 0.235137 | juan-soto-next-team | Will Juan Soto sign with the New York Mets? | 65,141,082 | 65,141,082 |
74c4ac38b080d1e8fd13f0be95799b9e1801fa09 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xdb4c85e45e29dcd76eef2e179eb7f8507ea0ec082dde46bcd34976e03d58de0a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | no | 0.000105 | nfl-worst-record | Will the Jacksonville Jaguars finish with the worst record in the NFL? | 65,154,902 | 65,201,676 |
79f4b072e4fa254d89cd9d6553100b03904972e1 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x7cb11795fca806e0e14d530f56f322e55de06342ab3ee1e28444d070469247aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | no | 0.333409 | juan-soto-next-team | Will Juan Soto sign with the Toronto Blue Jays? | 65,154,902 | 65,380,241 |
9c214bbc219b531e5a93f34970b7419654df370c | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x8a1c1646502d93b9ecb5420c0cf99f893d6b5f3228c8a0d3fc8187086d9e54cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | no | 0 | which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff? | 65,164,882 | 65,164,882 |
9b52e44f89b7283906eb33305ef7c54e0516238e | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xf829ae773c406b1cd61d80cd9d59eea95428816cfcc138ba457fde08f0dbec27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | no | 0.205656 | heisman-winner | Will Ashton Jeanty win the Heisman Trophy? | 65,164,882 | 65,439,984 |
ad28f776ed17d4ca283bf31c5f93e56035cfbbf8 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xe842afb9817e8d871bef728f00aeb75ff4d8e1c0088415e9540317d4ecdebb93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | no | 0.872659 | which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Will Boise State make the College Football Playoff? | 65,178,714 | 65,178,714 |
9640bd405413fab86f819ff713fe22bf18197388 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x556586ca051cc8aac3aabc5a1c940acca2567359f684d07d08bc27cc9cd8bf27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | yes | 0.000112 | will-hailey-welch-apologize-by-friday | Will Hailey Welch apologize by Friday? | 65,182,494 | 65,183,905 |
41edde1a32fb807843720c783c1bbdb6fbfd9eac | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x28c3b5cbe72554ec6474a938a55a96b597c220cf51f378c35ae327d7079f25dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | no | 1 | which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Will Iowa State make the College Football Playoff? | 65,198,150 | 65,198,150 |
3e5b030f43c38bf95767eaa007c8e02aef12d9e8 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xb16a306b40e5e06e8abf7a578ea26b3f980e977ad8936fc7eeef0bcf6cd62833 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | yes | 0.800133 | which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Will Notre Dame make the College Football Playoff? | 65,198,150 | 65,218,553 |
5aceb226cc305b3e0107e1b0e7222a3cc4cddc50 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x6517a0ecfc4eac4dfaff042e0529451f11e7dc241163e46e47912c701b956a7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | yes | 0.418939 | fantasy-football-top-flex-2024 | Will Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Flex Player? | 65,198,150 | 66,383,209 |
badea1684dc72cbc32b5849c5cd0d7cb83d1d097 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x7891950cdaf47b9c7de5041234364196500a49594a23b0ee51d5f61c89d6caf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | yes | 0.333374 | nfl-coach-of-the-year | Will Dan Campbell win NFL Coach of the Year? | 65,199,415 | 67,653,222 |
eb0daeb74f58f786f13d6523cf54e0e1d2986efe | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x50aa236e398a9754a8bfbbe3638cc3dd35b062307d790836f8cc46e4a5f807c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | yes | 0.49335 | which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Will Indiana make the College Football Playoff? | 65,205,482 | 65,205,482 |
82537a2d0f91bce095418497545a00b86ed8e2f3 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x7f479ff1b87d3d86471ddc711b0e2659efc084db90cfab7458879839413c7aa3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | yes | 0.01453 | nfl-worst-record | Will the New England Patriots finish with the worst record in the NFL? | 65,207,030 | 66,383,209 |
df154ab4ccd83377616fcd0f672a520189dfb670 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x26a80264b61bc6cb77f899e0377d751899ff2d592ebfe862abb9662ca3396b6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | no | 0 | which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Will Miami make the College Football Playoff? | 65,213,057 | 65,242,601 |
de100646707fb57824833b5a147ac51b2e1e9e9c | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xd5928fbf6643610bb8e8309648aec14c70268ac7a0ecac5d0dd1528ae8787335 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | no | 0 | which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Will Arizona State make the College Football Playoff? | 65,213,057 | 65,246,252 |
5b8905466b2079e0c3895281950cd53b3051f69b | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x72e87954a86d093f7f2991f8b2407e59ff6dc003ebc46bafe06349f6ad95044f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | no | 0.000055 | fantasy-football-top-wr-2024 | Will Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? | 65,218,044 | 65,829,014 |
c73e7cc9456a3add697cef37d38bc6226a198f61 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x8a30a0c1d73391913db77fa7dd3d29d9b7186f7fa59f41673cf36f60a0ba633d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | no | 0 | which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Will Clemson make the College Football Playoff? | 65,220,816 | 65,220,852 |
8238d121a83dc150b4bcb26bd19ef340e7e0606b | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x0c08a84d6cc0837d6f7d21d776808fb38b032ab6c651047a51daa832903dd9df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | no | 0.363416 | nfl-worst-record | Will the New York Giants finish with the worst record in the NFL? | 65,236,148 | 65,274,250 |
d45737cefcd0905219e6cb158658fab9696a2bd6 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xe64c6f0b5ba40660378a6e352dad2c326e73a7d3af1e572575b536fb83190140 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | no | 0.938553 | x-drops-antitrust-case-in-2024 | X drops antitrust case in 2024? | 65,236,148 | 66,184,003 |
439dfd78c289104cb7a1fdd0d962d5647db01292 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x0c09387fa635c672e4397d640790b5df1d3f1e8d1814fa838443e5f9fbc6718c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | no | 1 | which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Will Georgia make the College Football Playoff? | 65,246,250 | 65,246,250 |
25d12cec5214b0a7857854b9b2c5f98e679afc79 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x4c9be9748d3f5f82c04c5eb6fb7e9439989e315d3262768a1d7acaef8ca6a7e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | yes | 0.096559 | jay-z-arrested-in-2024 | Jay-Z arrested in 2024? | 65,279,105 | 65,617,971 |
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