sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4a660d44391d140d1b43ea6b3f421d5581d14919 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x6348b4a38ca4135d749b73ef02d9617f3aa741994ccea69b366dd9c8542358e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Mike Waltz for Secretary of State? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-secretary-of-state | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate Jeffrey Jensen for Attorney General? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-attorney-general | Choice: yes | Confidence... | clippers | 0 | nba-lac-okc-2025-01-02 | Clippers vs. Thunder | 66,151,324 | 66,399,778 |
3c074f6a3f00ca56ca8f28d65957e66e1a1ffd45 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x0e2ecfc3c40fd5f02144eb86f3bae2fa02145cf06e6f3f2bcee5af7164610f76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Jeffrey Jensen for Attorney General? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-attorney-general | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Ratcliffe for Attorney General? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-attorney-general | Choice: yes | Confidence... | wizards | 1 | nba-was-nop-2025-01-03 | Wizards vs. Pelicans | 66,399,778 | 66,399,778 |
8b9eaab85c1c7eb5948bcb56f1746e35dd8cb322 | 0x05d7287807fcd5ffeb17684230536b969654676f | 0x726d7a300f200afe20b93b43b2dd52d45bf57b714b1a81ed31e29ec9771dd24a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate John Ratcliffe for Attorney General? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-attorney-general | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate Will Levi for Attorney General? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-attorney-general | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | next-senate-majority-leader | Will John Cornyn be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 66,399,778 | 66,399,778 |
635fe81cfc38aff43ada65682afcaffd296724f7 | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0xc5996f9b3f743c440ed683ba4d8ee08a0218962df53be2af55bd40f96c69e825 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 62,098,735 | 62,098,735 |
ccd7cccbbbbbb71dc6cadfda83f020528571e0e9 | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0xd719c16f8e5ceea10d802cda85614fcff20e621ffdaca1ee5ce22106fc544f92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market... | yes | 1 | azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 62,098,745 | 62,098,745 |
7f60dc5561666def6afae277e5a1336a07b80507 | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0xa6b73b34412dfc004f9abe6e2e3db74ac60e67a7c6b56fdb8d271e82921e7928 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Trump lead ... | yes | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-sept-20 | Will Trump lead by 0.5 or more points on September 20? | 62,098,788 | 62,098,788 |
6aaf50fc032416d63c0ffa7933a857f40c972eed | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0xb662b2887940e36528c1f8d4bb696df6b1e88d381dc11a889de9e7a57b4e5577 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead by 0.5 or mor... | yes | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-sept-20 | Will Trump lead by 0-0.4 or more points on September 20? | 62,098,790 | 62,098,790 |
92c1545f2da6afb8e261f81e82117231e4954aef | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0x70357debf15a956d82d8b2022aaf5f868763d1d0716d2c6e5ce35712e49a3b0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead by 0.5 or mor... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | 62,098,803 | 62,098,803 |
221df60d24da83f1b41c3a2862491e2d57a70754 | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0x6ec7241d69f82c4bef15aef7fed788f5c36d85694a576de999ad09a067f3f497 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead by 0.5 or mor... | yes | 1 | singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Lewis Hamilton win the Singapore Grand Prix? | 62,169,962 | 62,169,962 |
cd386c049e506a3cd9a7cecb17bae016348baf0f | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0xd2827f3767400cb33b8ed82e6a3513a7311a24ce52e4fce039636fa280aeba8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead by 0.5 or mor... | yes | 1 | singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the Singapore Grand Prix? | 62,169,962 | 62,169,962 |
1779d7e2eeca0dffb92fcc7def5f4a8fff42f0a9 | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0xe1400ee5fd25dc5394313cbd03e1aecedb575dba3e192c55dd747fdee1b9e1b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead by 0.5 or mor... | yes | 1 | presidents-cup-top-points-scorer | Will Scottie Scheffler score the most points at the Presidents Cup? | 62,485,257 | 62,485,257 |
94f5d0581af143b3c8eafa75386f79b85bc66967 | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0x924147f074d0757971db47a8147a2094580eddad20c49e730b5d5b3a46749199 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead by 0.5 or mor... | yes | 1 | us-grand-prix-winner | Will Lando Norris win the United States Grand Prix? | 63,491,565 | 63,491,565 |
e0f4913c3e306ee29a929b08a15a886077a126b8 | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0x95a71c4f8e508de86cd3a4a5d790385c04c73ee28e603e0852645d6144901ac6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead by 0.5 or mor... | yes | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? | 63,613,778 | 63,613,778 |
085c357675fe7f2df47e60ce6b7ca1e16a993304 | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0x683f40d5a900755748eec349227b816b116306ee807b7e99588a704973c7a36d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead by 0.5 or mor... | yes | 1 | brazlian-grand-prix-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the Brazilian Grand Prix? | 63,902,387 | 63,902,387 |
dcd7ddc9143cb56395d5bd404a9d9c48e350788a | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0xe498d606c561c688e34bf2f08d3f6bc77007f0e64c2b9ad09f394824ef98350f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead by 0.5 or mor... | yes | 1 | brazlian-grand-prix-winner | Will another driver win the Brazilian Grand Prix? | 63,902,387 | 63,902,387 |
bca18d3b5ae1a4af1ad2781ed40b221270290105 | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0x2010ff3939e8e664dd57369aa907bbaa6d03ae18be27fe3ab2f4cdcb95a8b2ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead by 0.5 or mor... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? | 63,988,282 | 63,988,282 |
9232b6ac943bf0e3f435667b803831daa4ffcf11 | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0xee2e38c3d30a1696197ffa7f75b0add15d69844df51c55cd36136416d1d1f6bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead by 0.5 or mor... | yes | 1 | f1-constructors-championship-winner | Will Red Bull win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship? | 64,981,372 | 64,981,372 |
5796a3a5d3f2b54f5e804d745931d7d76a50ff5b | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0x90796741c4072105a0ba71083110776419180a39dcc68b0e67e43502d6020a5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead by 0.5 or mor... | yes | 1 | abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | 65,293,603 | 65,293,603 |
617cdc45134e4758561104b107124e01c649f9e0 | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0xaa69f9c948b8a162eb305285bf31a581868c23a289573889b27361726c213b64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead by 0.5 or mor... | yes | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Will another movie gross most in 2024? | 66,292,506 | 66,292,506 |
cb6500312688daf7c9e07b3534b78980ae174023 | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0xd51a5101d8bb14ad53ac2a0abe871475cf96d42774055ca2aadd0c4229198ef3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead by 0.5 or mor... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? | 70,539,314 | 70,539,314 |
fc19f9995df439bf550f634b987fd85437204d70 | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0x1e8a218397b3b0bd53ac73f1342157310c3656a862cab140eb3e3f51db40af55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead by 0.5 or mor... | yes | 1 | nba-playoffs-thunder-vs-grizzlies-series-outcome | Will the Thunder beat the Grizzlies 4-0? | 70,811,995 | 70,811,995 |
58b35b7572f1eeabe31b130a9687de59d3f0b07d | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0xbcd118fe500e3d963b67da1153fc524424bbdd23fc261acbbd067813d3bb3524 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead by 0.5 or mor... | yes | 1 | nba-playoffs-lakers-vs-timberwolves-series-outcome | Will the Lakers beat the Timberwolves 4-1? | 70,811,995 | 70,811,995 |
e63174b472cc29d80c6bfc3748af2b53e535bf21 | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0x0691e0a7c19a1c5f051064c66cd6e9249b088725ff6af65c48184dd44828c5ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead by 0.5 or mor... | yes | 1 | nba-playoffs-nuggets-vs-clippers-series-outcome | Will the Nuggets beat the Clippers 4-3? | 71,135,074 | 71,135,074 |
304715e27166f9f7a3c45301d087854c1930f1ef | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0x405534c03f82e56a397478db7b068dbb683fb46c976265f650ba6510200749da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead by 0.5 or mor... | yes | 1 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | Liverpool wins the Premier League? | 71,135,074 | 71,135,074 |
548c701096be504011e500a3832063f3d8f2075c | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0x97d3867a81056693fd0f789f3d061a924dac55c2476d03e7ee10403fded9bf5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead by 0.5 or mor... | yes | 1 | nba-playoffs-cavaliers-vs-heat-series-outcome | Will the Cavaliers beat the Heat 4-1 | 71,135,074 | 71,135,074 |
5c4a4c349726dba3c406a6074aefa05708c0ba5b | 0x061521b57e8825cd9c6f1423f6004d0d642f5c47 | 0xe35f88f95d23b6aebf78e75e883d2517268dd5a9c88c6607f177d675fab7c090 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead by 0.5 or mor... | yes | 1 | nba-playoffs-knicks-vs-pistons-series-outcome | Will the Knicks beat the Pistons 4-1? | 71,135,074 | 71,135,074 |
8cb1671ad099cb730b9afd31fa51f034f24503d8 | 0x0626a3d7f405a3a78358ae0e028ef71f1172bc27 | 0x6dd742c3d45b2381cf328d8a43fe4cd36d872c94920089b72da2f9159d8be2be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0.99983 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,659,139 | 67,659,139 |
cbf8403fea8a35e927ff0982394fd3faa67bf07e | 0x0626a3d7f405a3a78358ae0e028ef71f1172bc27 | 0xa83748af6ac0f019ccd3eb2707fdf6319cabdda86f587e8d0001cd3ca63ba422 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998296520572924
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options
Predict the user... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,659,139 | 67,659,139 |
3a760b253f73ca56e3b96df5973587c0aff8c811 | 0x0626a3d7f405a3a78358ae0e028ef71f1172bc27 | 0xdd447d36afe4adc27b2ce66c0cdfb4f8d39e374e485aec56f58c075e8f82876a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998296520572924
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | cs2-iem-katowice-winner | Will Team Spirit win the ESL Katowice Tournament? | 67,738,177 | 67,738,177 |
4316f9e7a6efe9deb7d172c8b28edaf1f3ab7b26 | 0x0626a3d7f405a3a78358ae0e028ef71f1172bc27 | 0xc96f27ac4e8e3880cac7855282c01f3883264e5948ead97a389788e66493756b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998296520572924
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Will Elon Musk tweet 400-449 times February 7-14? | 67,800,107 | 67,800,107 |
82013d61fe87c44fac8f926b282e7c85698edde7 | 0x0626a3d7f405a3a78358ae0e028ef71f1172bc27 | 0x16628ef888c22343b649d3c427325fdf850a4d001bde4202bf85f7cef6f127ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998296520572924
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-ata-bru-2025-02-18 | Will Atalanta win on 2025-02-18? | 68,118,178 | 68,118,178 |
d5654eda02ddc9aa7e94af071ca412426eecb22c | 0x0626a3d7f405a3a78358ae0e028ef71f1172bc27 | 0x41eec28d4c34eaa69d5f99c14107e73ec1e9fa92aa62f61f1de00206ae03a350 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998296520572924
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-bay-cel-2025-02-18 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-02-18? | 68,118,178 | 68,118,178 |
b752a616b1e7ddbc8a92041b0a98ead71a738b2d | 0x0626a3d7f405a3a78358ae0e028ef71f1172bc27 | 0x862c406e573eba3cced3a0d465215764b7083b474733f010d6b2d2d0a3b7d2d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998296520572924
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-ben-mon-2025-02-18 | Will Benfica win on 2025-02-18? | 68,118,178 | 68,118,178 |
a76b1996ccfead23d2f9ef0be56782be38a563dd | 0x0626a3d7f405a3a78358ae0e028ef71f1172bc27 | 0x4fdd4a2f5f4adcc89c63581a4cd3ae1864d1fad2e8d24c75b13120e3f0dfb2c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998296520572924
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | japan-grand-prix-winner | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? | 69,973,024 | 69,973,024 |
9f5d4ac977ea135791c0bbf7379b35142665c4af | 0x0626a3d7f405a3a78358ae0e028ef71f1172bc27 | 0xa26839ffd4f0b10e4adf4b625f1b8c2a816fcfd64391bed6a9123bf9395a0118 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998296520572924
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | japan-grand-prix-winner | Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? | 69,973,024 | 69,973,024 |
4eae50a15690520027d72d9f972ef49328081691 | 0x0626a3d7f405a3a78358ae0e028ef71f1172bc27 | 0x735211dd26d984cdcebc66ebff857e2a68891ec6f410bcd18f57f190261eaa2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998296520572924
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | 71,306,287 | 71,306,287 |
96e61cd1d6c8ba533552ff947d566535d0f1d826 | 0x0626a3d7f405a3a78358ae0e028ef71f1172bc27 | 0x97af43bae4de23331bac3c9e8c9f7c657567f1b0d56906f5c2867d8e996edbd8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998296520572924
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | of-rounds-to-elect-next-pope | Will the next Pope require 5–6 ballots? | 71,306,287 | 71,306,287 |
02c0e4e46b85af627f1853e0a938318be92c8745 | 0x0626a3d7f405a3a78358ae0e028ef71f1172bc27 | 0xa82836e520d785403a3ea029b221e3f0af255cc8bed794cc038b7c1bb78fc989 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998296520572924
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | of-rounds-to-elect-next-pope | Will the next Pope require 3–4 ballots? | 71,306,287 | 71,306,287 |
32a17f70417c87aaf52b5e925700a32c2c977cd3 | 0x0626a3d7f405a3a78358ae0e028ef71f1172bc27 | 0xecb6a5e33d64c2d8bfc0d741c937a6004093b0a02d40cbd3ba772ea1f8cadcc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998296520572924
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Will the next pop be elected in 3 days? | 71,306,287 | 71,306,287 |
6df34984c0a81805c3f5e6de0b852f726c416950 | 0x0626a3d7f405a3a78358ae0e028ef71f1172bc27 | 0xf717e373de650e5796356fa602a4c5ae27b8cd5766549e17e16a52e48c4aca0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998296520572924
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | yes | 1 | f1-canadian-grand-prix-winner | Will Alexander Albon win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix? | 72,933,742 | 72,933,742 |
abd7aeca4e2836f43d7e4ebb53b465fcc795ec65 | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0x3d7c7d5dff80d333e68d53491633efdddb239028161b8c780f0fd3b587521a7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1?
Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | 73,465,227 | 73,465,227 |
aa7b0fa3373fb39d6f6ea5aa671f4064be55119b | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0x0371dedb29bacce1949cda36d36a319ff69aa1796527bc2ccf3786ae0ec57221 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1?
Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? | 73,520,911 | 73,520,911 |
6e12e232eed405c59d8171cc2d1c47bec598ce23 | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0x81efe9594cc44b9bff2947a1b4cf2fbcc9e5d4b6e0a31c8288025a10445cf034 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Iga S... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Will Iga Swiatek win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,909,566 | 73,909,566 |
82d6655a14fba1ed3e42d67cc3c1b3ce7c22bfae | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0x4a5485cba5c0bca54b725770c7a7c63b0f54148fe1d09f8d7138a8cdeb759dd0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win Wi... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-atlanta-united-vs-seattle | MLS: Will Atlanta United beat Seattle Sounders? | 74,470,308 | 74,470,308 |
abdf8c669addaa8a6a04bcf23985ff492fb5d652 | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0x733ac69053f9545243bf24bc532ae5b9803142519207f63915d30aa13c5c461f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win Wi... | yes | 1 | mls-soccer-vancouver-vs-sporting-kansas-city | MLS: Will Vancouver Whitecaps beat Sporting Kansas City? | 74,470,308 | 74,470,308 |
747fdb2567b578211c6a5183ba7bf3e77e408f94 | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0x0e8235a8c4aab1c4ed0d7c5747399d6a85f37096fe11d161906ea067ef0a3e10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win Wi... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-toronto-fc-vs-columbus | MLS: Will Toronto FC beat Columbus Crew? | 75,398,450 | 75,398,450 |
7fb1b1b94a8f4fe2ddb4f3768bb0d620aebf890a | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0x1714411f77481e80d00418a1f9751f9942547e1a717ad95b6ba0a1b836f5063b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win Wi... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-austin-fc-vs-fc-dallas | MLS: Will FC Dallas beat Austin FC? | 75,398,450 | 75,398,450 |
222c7ae33d717fb4b8ab9500f48537224150e506 | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0x40d577abb82723c2e51e6ef7d8af45adb832e40ac8ad96f0d8983d3f0a6b8473 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win Wi... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-new-england-vs-lafc | MLS: Will New England beat LAFC? | 75,398,450 | 75,398,450 |
41b0c2f6d29bfc500dfc5c3b4430279162e9da84 | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0xc2e0d2b666462bf6adae35f57b1afdeb8663b203dd3acc8c808485a3204ac800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win Wi... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-cf-montreal-vs-dc-united | MLS: Will D.C. United beat CF Montreal? | 75,398,450 | 75,398,450 |
be2bb4a02dd2fa5672cf148a7ecb1aad86c0dd4c | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0xcec3bb20a9e96a9be9055b4e448adfbc5bd0541f26f7464d056c33bdf0995a74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win Wi... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-charlotte-fc-vs-real-salt-lake | MLS: Will Real Salt Lake beat Charlotte FC? | 75,398,450 | 75,398,450 |
e695612ac74c705c8c774398c658c7cc82059a03 | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0xf303ddb5f3eba901687b798a095973fab56333a272c96a36ce774af4fd138f18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win Wi... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-colorado-vs-atlanta | MLS: Will Atlanta beat Colorado? | 75,398,450 | 75,398,450 |
f8c33eeb6e5941ff2d64247299657c5395492359 | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0xc34995eeec887e73dfb5c5b8ef44a55753cf56f695c6fda8094fe9e85a5e2d0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win Wi... | yes | 1 | lal-rea-osa-2025-08-19 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-08-19? | 75,573,329 | 75,573,329 |
cff326aed79bfe3b6a0d98503d13554016e0f22c | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0x0b6cbded17b641695ec9efe00da60389bb96bdfc07f4e49f0c33b307b979b646 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win Wi... | yes | 1 | lal-lev-bar-2025-08-23 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-23? | 75,858,386 | 75,858,386 |
9a1f25e463a490797bd836f604076fe50ebf9557 | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0x0656c73b782f5a69acd827353913ef341bc6db54e514dbb87d11d4ee51da39b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win Wi... | yes | 1 | epl-bur-liv-2025-09-14 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-14? | 76,495,071 | 76,495,071 |
71ebb4c16cf32a67936a187fab64172a1ebcff74 | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0xbd05bd75bb708fb16c35f214d6e59e1e429008fdfa978419052e6c9f6b34d4a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win Wi... | no | 1 | ucl-kob-b04-2025-09-18 | Will FC Kopenhagen win on 2025-09-18? | 76,814,228 | 76,814,228 |
30aac54fbd0390470ece5bb6f9bcec62e27a93f0 | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0xab3eac189555b839ddaa859d54d621193f6fe304ccee3b24c6600d54237b658b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win Wi... | yes | 1 | lal-ovi-bar-2025-09-25 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25? | 76,925,688 | 76,925,688 |
200c758f22c5ede122a44cdf57280f3d4b4100fb | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0x6ee4be5c69de0f36d0de2690f0851205fb577c68472f1caa2c665aa437df5e75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win Wi... | yes | 1 | sea-nap-gen-2025-10-05 | Will Napoli win on 2025-10-05? | 77,348,284 | 77,348,284 |
824550805eea4cba62b7659e70897299ab0293c8 | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0xc6b734cb08be267e4f3d9b8fa377ee33aa8e1810875ccd565946b904dc607364 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win Wi... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-mac-2025-10-05 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-05? | 77,348,284 | 77,348,284 |
b8543f3bb5a3b1b1660b8966b6ca993475bc5f44 | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0xcb7fbb98b81d8982e13677f79061bd8452d96c8c18d4511bfc2cc37f340e4bd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win Wi... | no | 1 | sea-fio-rom-2025-10-05 | Will Fiorentina win on 2025-10-05? | 77,348,284 | 77,348,284 |
947538107b305c1f4a6448aa53ec45b3a1e05896 | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0x26a2d06e681b9b70b4b9a5ef973b57dc655485aa5abe769b42a13d62d4a48ec7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win Wi... | no | 1 | fif-rom-mol-2025-10-09 | Will Moldova win on 2025-10-09? | 77,496,212 | 77,496,212 |
e3bfb26fd9670f8682d011a815f187e8bbb61816 | 0x062ec1f820ffa5eaee4d9512b5b02d97e4409747 | 0x7344406c2c33255afc25b7bde3c5791fa7bb5f980023a0f5a961e014ffe2ed62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win Wi... | yes | 1 | uef-mal-nld-2025-10-09 | Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-09? | 77,496,212 | 77,496,212 |
3660626f26f4cc63210bb45cad19c4ce5cc9098e | 0x064ef7564c2e1537e98f71a671f1803c0d3aa06a | 0x4f3980803fe76d34d55b260efa64fd00e858802f2f019834df3a2da7f63db2aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat Bayern Munich?
Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-dinamo-zagreb
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | ucl-bayern-munich-vs-dinamo-zagreb | Will Dinamo Zagreb beat Bayern Munich? | 61,967,569 | 61,967,569 |
a4b4fab2a2abff19b3f5f739d89cf40b903e62b2 | 0x064ef7564c2e1537e98f71a671f1803c0d3aa06a | 0xcac5a661a5787c8f36eb9bc642e3567e593eb1f8b25b443b26149adee36adbba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-dinamo-zagreb | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will PSV beat Juventus?
Event: ucl-juventus-vs-psv
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "... | no | 1 | ucl-juventus-vs-psv | Will PSV beat Juventus? | 61,967,569 | 61,967,569 |
3d7bb9eb50f4b357f6e596bb19c4862089971e84 | 0x064ef7564c2e1537e98f71a671f1803c0d3aa06a | 0x5bc1ce620e2aa0976a9f78fe9badbb4a9c834fefcc2a29f0d2f7cc58e41da48e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-dinamo-zagreb | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSV beat Juventus? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-psv | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Girona beat Paris Saint-Germain?
Event: ucl-psg-vs-... | no | 1 | ucl-psg-vs-girona | Will Girona beat Paris Saint-Germain? | 62,010,626 | 62,010,626 |
52a7e0bce0137de424fd7c8cb5cbb5f4bbf456d0 | 0x064ef7564c2e1537e98f71a671f1803c0d3aa06a | 0xa116673f7db8d6df2e1e423654d819c15e7f36164279c63f25a5ff57587426b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-dinamo-zagreb | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSV beat Juventus? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-psv | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Girona beat Paris Saint-Germain? | Event: ucl-psg-vs-girona | Ch... | no | 1 | ucl-celtic-vs-slovan-bratislava | Will Slovan Bratislava beat Celtic? | 62,010,626 | 62,010,626 |
83926c8987f341543e8f05f38b865cc26e1796ac | 0x064ef7564c2e1537e98f71a671f1803c0d3aa06a | 0x94e0d145ebb2c1f3dda9f9bc14201cad7477bc2f988e76c1208593a5d82b883e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-dinamo-zagreb | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSV beat Juventus? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-psv | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Girona beat Paris Saint-Germain? | Event: ucl-psg-vs-girona | Ch... | no | 1 | ucl-monaco-vs-barcelona | Will Monaco beat Barcelona? | 62,045,132 | 62,045,132 |
0dde37decec0051be6438d9a8ac0132e90dabe5a | 0x064ef7564c2e1537e98f71a671f1803c0d3aa06a | 0x1178e844ed170c879c4936e99477708ec4712c9b091a02b8fd92ca6c4b164a28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-dinamo-zagreb | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSV beat Juventus? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-psv | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Girona beat Paris Saint-Germain? | Event: ucl-psg-vs-girona | Ch... | yes | 1 | europa-league-manchester-united-vs-twente | Will Twente beat Manchester United? | 62,293,545 | 62,293,545 |
0d8cc7f3e1cc0f8ad9bd2971002712ed625acb14 | 0x064ef7564c2e1537e98f71a671f1803c0d3aa06a | 0x1f07a670722224cf626d1819a844ea4765ad9cb6433c9563cb2e08a3442f4daa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-dinamo-zagreb | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSV beat Juventus? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-psv | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Girona beat Paris Saint-Germain? | Event: ucl-psg-vs-girona | Ch... | yes | 1 | ucl-liverpool-vs-bologna | Will Bologna beat Liverpool? | 62,576,158 | 62,576,158 |
eb4776c2d0a3365b9dd685517a7328eaecdfbacc | 0x064ef7564c2e1537e98f71a671f1803c0d3aa06a | 0xaf397be04ee8608fb9a20b94c41c61cdc71a4939be677d409f2d6965450af0f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-dinamo-zagreb | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSV beat Juventus? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-psv | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Girona beat Paris Saint-Germain? | Event: ucl-psg-vs-girona | Ch... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-liv-2024-12-29 | Will West Ham win on 2024-12-29? | 66,094,505 | 66,094,505 |
b8cc50166d71fbda0d6e49fca18ba72cd7e8b539 | 0x064ef7564c2e1537e98f71a671f1803c0d3aa06a | 0x795eab1e09861d76d7cd04f942cf9eb743b78870a3aa7d7ad8d513676f22609a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-dinamo-zagreb | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSV beat Juventus? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-psv | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Girona beat Paris Saint-Germain? | Event: ucl-psg-vs-girona | Ch... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-che-2024-12-30 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-30? | 66,135,628 | 66,135,628 |
db2424fe37b26ac83ad5e587929d3d93fe5acbda | 0x064ef7564c2e1537e98f71a671f1803c0d3aa06a | 0x0edd92f077aefe5a9172f9908f7a215af9c0b1615188fcd7d1cdfc62fef38f25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-dinamo-zagreb | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSV beat Juventus? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-psv | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Girona beat Paris Saint-Germain? | Event: ucl-psg-vs-girona | Ch... | yes | 1 | epl-che-bou-2025-01-14 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-14? | 66,722,316 | 66,722,316 |
6c0f5630fcf876bea291871b744d11682ec11175 | 0x064ef7564c2e1537e98f71a671f1803c0d3aa06a | 0x3b6f9935ca0abb591f1184b390ca1df2ca71d6a8946ad9d7dcb255d7cdf12795 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-dinamo-zagreb | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSV beat Juventus? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-psv | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Girona beat Paris Saint-Germain? | Event: ucl-psg-vs-girona | Ch... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-mac-2025-01-14 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-14? | 66,722,316 | 66,722,316 |
c868e64780abd0e25ae09996222adbc93a01d40c | 0x064ef7564c2e1537e98f71a671f1803c0d3aa06a | 0x07339ac7f14ec4152b1e37800058e56b7099ea3313021e3712c89dce8c436621 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-dinamo-zagreb | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSV beat Juventus? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-psv | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Girona beat Paris Saint-Germain? | Event: ucl-psg-vs-girona | Ch... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-august-13-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4100 on August 13 at 5PM ET? | 75,175,790 | 75,175,790 |
cb6859a6a6ec983b446b114022c3a3caa08674e0 | 0x064ef7564c2e1537e98f71a671f1803c0d3aa06a | 0x84762466eb6aba19b7e08569410c5b3e25d6411959f618c707f2bce98098cc6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-dinamo-zagreb | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSV beat Juventus? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-psv | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Girona beat Paris Saint-Germain? | Event: ucl-psg-vs-girona | Ch... | yes | 1 | uef-aze-ukr-2025-09-09 | Will Ukraine win on 2025-09-09? | 76,269,032 | 76,269,032 |
5efc5726f01b4139bf42a6be4c818d4fe0cf168e | 0x064ef7564c2e1537e98f71a671f1803c0d3aa06a | 0xc8f58cc49fb7e8ea835289b968bb6ac84c666e91cf7ed164e4214527f9a9277f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-dinamo-zagreb | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSV beat Juventus? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-psv | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Girona beat Paris Saint-Germain? | Event: ucl-psg-vs-girona | Ch... | no | 1 | ucl-vil-juv-2025-10-01 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-01? | 77,149,543 | 77,149,543 |
b0aa59558f19e2de22c7f5f163bfc0f09d478eeb | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0xf904926acf35ab9a6070ce9c98c05dc29dfa5ad096efb045b76e775065be5e0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year?
Event: game-of-the-year-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | game-of-the-year-2024 | Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | 65,516,945 | 65,516,945 |
69d7bbeee63712ab112042faa4fdaac71b01e49b | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x66a2af4782ab2ecf7a0ca65710fa0241145eee0402dd7d2338fe78b328f23aa3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing?
Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target ... | yes | 1 | next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | 65,822,097 | 65,822,097 |
90efd42e5c7fa862e639680a75dd9db95f89ee08 | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x71363a064e99548e892a6cc0e06f89ec6f5ef77a0cf74cf1d25b87865fcba216 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will $NOT ... | yes | 1 | next-coin-on-robinhood | Will $NOT be listed first on Robinhood? | 65,822,097 | 65,822,097 |
f6ea81398699bfbc8ad48121e6daa96421cb9dbd | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x8c7be587b8598edba1673690864bb049710960d19530da909c0c8ca309d0c9b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | next-coin-on-robinhood | Will $POPCAT be listed first on Robinhood? | 65,822,097 | 65,822,097 |
f4069c481a3e8ed0687595abce41b87f430de663 | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0xa3f72e04ab46b3a5b87eaf371a7cbe6c9c01dc640203cf23dee589dd198f8121 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Will Coinbase announce Popcat as next listing? | 65,822,097 | 65,822,097 |
77f5d16040f58a8b727eb27de68235041bc3af1f | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0xe986284ed884732cb82713c2ff601056f092efe785254fa16a4db0abc7e76654 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | next-coin-on-robinhood | Will $PNUT be listed first on Robinhood? | 65,822,097 | 65,822,097 |
0955bbc4e0f19d21670e841f2c1b16589e59a663 | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x0ba973b06865c78d6423a91f6971bff776b80f1b9b76b6f0dbdeca3f212d68a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend? | 65,864,898 | 65,864,898 |
09b43dc74411f020729805187de524b777140e8c | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x1674811cafd247b0884098f871117ee6a0d73ce4a39985c4968459c902041b44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | 65,864,898 | 65,864,898 |
6361263b53ce255ce041f1610244a6f5d9a2623c | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x92119c9a21187ebc8b2ed1bfebe43d5e7f8d43397656bf22fa904a6317a81277 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | mufasa-the-lion-king-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $64-70m on 3-day opening weekend? | 65,864,898 | 65,864,898 |
cc7af8462e51b78226605ddb6170bec0fdff1e58 | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0xb4c121b9cf951e8ff56c584f83250ec33101b7f5d61b530ef88ba7ce8661ff74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | mufasa-the-lion-king-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $58-64m on 3-day opening weekend? | 65,864,898 | 65,864,898 |
5cb5a574e7e650d736b5f570418cdd8980ca8044 | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0xd3aa69a5c84bb794c59b2caf0d2e9e2208cc06a6e8d59c827a987925b6f72ed7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? | 65,864,898 | 65,864,898 |
1d4d50e54f2ad4737d34ef4c164c1a6cf5e9443f | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x2b249d906ea21e96c92ff64230190da86e3fa0830b517ac58471b4e0f5a2c7c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Sonic 3' gross more than $80m on 3-day opening weekend? | 65,864,899 | 65,864,899 |
5d24043dd78958a308d9da6dfa2342bc930afb61 | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0xa5388b870527d6851ae9fd7f469b1e4f1c8effadca84b9fd697d5530d5d5d7e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | mufasa-the-lion-king-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross more than $70m on 3-day opening weekend? | 65,864,899 | 65,864,899 |
6dc3af841310fedf42b454fb98fb5f5a68c73a62 | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x3b2de650b3e7dac92b00f555471227dae4b1bc73ee29b89cbfe9d4412692c8be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Nosferatu' gross under $20m on 5-day opening weekend? | 66,144,213 | 66,144,213 |
8b57603ab60ee53b5ec062d40ab57bf8f48e45cb | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x8a8d14636fb261b71ccc50e58b7a3a18d068ff25190842491f4ddf93a1553b0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? | 66,144,213 | 66,144,213 |
5dfce503f34bc227af8b578425e3062489d5125a | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x3d1121c423b3a5b2b961d131dddd00169ef0619487e8afd78a89e0c55855a7e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | next-coin-listed-on-binance | Will $GOAT be listed first on Binance? | 66,255,146 | 66,255,146 |
357c4eed95c8edc95bddcc4ae218ca177d29bebb | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x87ebcc9f6660a5b9613650c3d91bae01f4503b11eb61a782b993bbc3a5d41b04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? | 66,255,146 | 66,255,146 |
1446bda4ac3f5a2a58e40824f453186bda87e1c8 | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0xbce0ff6f8ee396ec39e76c8b60d747272e8bf4bd65f31d0e131b64aceb0be3b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024? | 66,255,146 | 66,255,146 |
a18173744a28953a509cd43a065d809dbeb351e1 | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0xf404052387b0612112823ad31ca9572150cce046590c61b6c98792eb7b264ed1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | next-james-bond-actor | Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? | 66,255,146 | 66,255,146 |
468f5f4b16dc0319e40407f4070e7680bf50938a | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0xf80032ad5496e997beb357f01e9fe69382d7c755cde2352eba37410db006c21d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? | 66,255,146 | 66,255,146 |
e4d3e7081b66f8e2edfcf604c75dd64fdd8085cc | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x371e5a57eb2a39b0eca983633dc6d9c4422a61814fa8e61aeca1fec7ebff7429 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | next-coin-listed-on-binance | Will $POPCAT be listed first on Binance? | 66,255,170 | 66,255,170 |
0fc9e909743d556a1409d2e1c3c174dce0f541fa | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x52150c9513c7ae6406641f92b8b0f135ead4cab51936bed4c63d92bf6b92fbe2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | steam-awards-labor-of-love | Will 'Stardew Valley' win Labor of Love in the 2024 Steam Awards? | 66,255,170 | 66,255,170 |
8e1480eae8cb3f85174decf06bef97bae9bc8c97 | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x79f846da98b7a015b9f60e9ac7623bb5abc8f3e20e93da5d5fcc0cf58d5a3fd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | next-james-bond-actor | Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? | 66,255,170 | 66,255,170 |
79453e7ac17fb85789c0ed7bfa8192a1a04e6f5a | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x0f43f30e1f111546989c1c557130de87022b230b91dbb0c4628e74af41023a32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,575,761 | 66,575,761 |
580f8527bf3a881839412f13d9d03fa392df12f5 | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x247cd5c4016505003b98db90acc4054978315747e0bae3c3acce02293e53f1cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,575,761 | 66,575,761 |
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