sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
fe10381f5b5a28975717cb50897bea11b0581596 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x0a5366228f012d0c017a9fa0cbea77db2de23b39ee192c7f70cb2077b3589014 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | no | 0 | juan-soto-next-team | Will Juan Soto sign with the Chicago Cubs? | 65,284,670 | 65,284,670 |
732a7a2d91000baacc6b8d63df473be660ff530c | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x113a67abeb0085cd82e7f1fd99db482844d4a60d855768d72e1b822f40480720 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | juan-soto-next-team | Will Juan Soto sign with the San Francisco Giants? | 65,380,241 | 65,380,241 |
66442cb8c7220268edba4c39e6db189c4d26215a | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x3eabab9ce7e7cf6455467369cfbe9cd999bb67d5df5d136ff7866ea1a5fd3d10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.840735110060856e-05
2. Question: Will Trump replace Hegseth with DeSantis by Friday? | Event: will-trump-replace-hegseth-with-desantis | Choice: yes | Conf... | no | 1 | juan-soto-next-team | Will Juan Soto sign with the Yankees? | 65,380,241 | 65,380,241 |
cdb5ce8f053664bf2d67f272e1141b0d4e4835bd | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x685aab7be28e9cce4e36f1660dbd44fa3223c396a9026e5beeba6d15ff257c82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump replace Hegseth with DeSantis by Friday? | Event: will-trump-replace-hegseth-with-desantis | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00014724810342097518
2. Question: Will LaMelo Ball win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0852710387380189... | no | 1 | juan-soto-next-team | Will Juan Soto sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers? | 65,380,241 | 65,380,241 |
e3389ee365a5e7ca6514c8eaec49c57411b2f39c | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xfd0f05efdbd46ef902dfcdb39bd570aa3aa9afbd2ee42d9c2717698f2e5421f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will LaMelo Ball win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.08527103873801893
2. Question: Will Penn State make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | juan-soto-next-team | Will Juan Soto sign with the Boston Red Sox? | 65,380,241 | 65,380,241 |
acb769c7f689765c788e0b26047c667d3f1aeceb | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xc80bd90c7a117daa0873975107ddea644ef4b17976683c6a7499ee642b5aaf44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Penn State make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jalen Johnson win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Ohio ... | yes | 0.435185 | heisman-winner | Will Travis Hunter win the Heisman Trophy? | 65,438,454 | 65,439,984 |
af85edee83c504f02b6ea84720e77e750b61ebec | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x30bb4ebcf8732c6f1fb626274d815eca9f99380beedea216f42a86f3673cb29f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jalen Johnson win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Ohio State make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.24050636051914837
3. Ques... | yes | 0.010236 | fantasy-football-top-tight-end-2024 | Will another player be the top Fantasy Tight End? | 65,438,454 | 66,383,209 |
41cc6b6b7e26cab04a8dbe75aeb55e93f42fd550 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x0c6b259942cbfd597e1e7e19a0a793a4bbae4735d62a8c755259b00601952c0a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ohio State make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.24050636051914837
2. Question: Will George Kittle be the top Fantasy Tight End? | Event: fantasy-football-top-tight-end-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0... | no | 0 | mystery-drone-shot-down-by-sunday | Mystery drones shot down by Sunday? | 65,448,883 | 65,543,281 |
3f76bd50a1f07b2dc084174fb4ba95e1d6d8ff31 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xd23320a1837ec592006e367aade4fd9f4875ccf11192466b91edd808e194b49b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will George Kittle be the top Fantasy Tight End? | Event: fantasy-football-top-tight-end-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Juan Soto sign with the New York Mets? | Event: juan-soto-next-team | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.23513707360090658
3. Question: Will the Jacksonville... | no | 0.023151 | fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Will Lamar Jackson be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | 65,481,823 | 66,383,209 |
4d55bab21d08f9a2ae4b1b5fb0f68b1618f62953 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xf5696d8eb7ee5bb4fdd58465f502c8962c8972a4de4d64077662b41e658d2401 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juan Soto sign with the New York Mets? | Event: juan-soto-next-team | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.23513707360090658
2. Question: Will the Jacksonville Jaguars finish with the worst record in the NFL? | Event: nfl-worst-record | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0001046515469074718
3. Question: ... | no | 0.000291 | opensea-token-in-2024 | OpenSea token announcement in 2024? | 65,496,641 | 65,496,641 |
0819f468c608cf82f4b9881d4539db77b0be9d4a | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x5e11d4db846d9bd010ba3c365fca4f13e564ba5917d0954535a308cc71d0c305 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Jacksonville Jaguars finish with the worst record in the NFL? | Event: nfl-worst-record | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0001046515469074718
2. Question: Will Juan Soto sign with the Toronto Blue Jays? | Event: juan-soto-next-team | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33340902473857426
3. Questio... | no | 0.719221 | nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Will TJ Watt win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | 65,555,887 | 67,653,222 |
2e51a3129fc52cafab7452abf2bac5b34f7f9b8a | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x97991acce667788f69ba0b120dc7bdb53db18dc0e42b4fd2b87018defbbcfead | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juan Soto sign with the Toronto Blue Jays? | Event: juan-soto-next-team | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33340902473857426
2. Question: Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 0 | which-nfl-teams-will-make-the-playoffs | Will the Indianapolis Colts make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? | 65,560,260 | 66,082,315 |
aab8e5430d0a41e30306c9530be9259fb8f53392 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x07faaf60d74c220019196a1d49b3c0ca4578444a0be2b001de6ee4480a74ebf5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Ashton Jeanty win the Heisman Trophy? | Event: heisman-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.20565627947697002
3. Question: Will Boise Sta... | no | 0.000491 | mystery-drones-searching-for-nuclear-weapons | Mystery Drones searching for nuclear weapons? | 65,561,825 | 65,561,825 |
9674962bd169e9d0c9026e945552df3a1dd18ecd | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xb8652114aba10ac01aa093e4135a070072a80908f0a0a7f0d6587fbfe55ad6c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ashton Jeanty win the Heisman Trophy? | Event: heisman-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.20565627947697002
2. Question: Will Boise State make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8726591760299626
3. Quest... | no | 0.000061 | which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard | Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard? | 65,606,168 | 65,649,510 |
a25a7532992b78063f84c61e0fa84acd67654aa9 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x262d52881dda0da007e0278310c160ec9a97e67200bcee567d41d97fb8cda1a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Boise State make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8726591760299626
2. Question: Will Hailey Welch apologize by Friday? | Event: will-hailey-welch-apologize-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.000112... | yes | 0.00289 | fact-check-are-mystery-drones-a-government-test | Fact Check: Are Mystery Drones a government test? | 65,649,510 | 65,649,510 |
1341b9f0e825cf405a3e2d078512e6dc9b3c5ecc | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x5c5067758d91b3426ece5dd5fe71859c0b1dd3e3066adc4adc8bfb61a59e5a05 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hailey Welch apologize by Friday? | Event: will-hailey-welch-apologize-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00011200505740485967
2. Question: Will Iowa State make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 0.15082 | will-trump-media-launch-a-crypto-exchange-in-2024 | Will Trump Media acquire a crypto exchange in 2024? | 65,689,310 | 66,184,003 |
d6dce40fa77fa4d72a950168d89a0029fca1633e | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x32310cd744109d68fd1d81b18f027581ae192343f884eb13475daabcb10150b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iowa State make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Notre Dame make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 0 | trudeau-resigns-by-friday | Trudeau resigns by Friday? | 65,731,611 | 65,758,033 |
ed89b71e472546749eb4cc3c3c607eb61e564276 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x16cc7c88ad6e6ae4bfe6cf6330d59ac9032ea3aa4ff4ede1baf7c175d1620fba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Notre Dame make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8001333555592599
2. Question: Will Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Flex Player? | Event: fantasy-football-top-flex-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4... | no | 0 | nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year | Will Braden Fiske win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year? | 65,829,014 | 65,829,014 |
1fe0a239a7b96fd5e636828f14899d8e94d68a24 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xa9c2997d85e9e86dd1fe192ffe8a86622e031accdb3ad25d707aace86d6d0d17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Flex Player? | Event: fantasy-football-top-flex-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4189385271088066
2. Question: Will Dan Campbell win NFL Coach of the Year? | Event: nfl-coach-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.33337356979361654
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 0.333333 | hyperliquid-exploit-before-february | Hyperliquid exploit before February? | 65,857,141 | 65,954,341 |
4cecc87e749452103c2f020adccb3a8b57c71cf5 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x93b9a0b92b572e7ce67a78af85d8b37460a94db29a50f923fc31e8eb891a566a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dan Campbell win NFL Coach of the Year? | Event: nfl-coach-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.33337356979361654
2. Question: Will Indiana make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.493350221659278
3.... | yes | 0.000125 | jimmy-butler-trade | Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | 65,918,432 | 65,918,432 |
f943fb76a7e8d1cf8de9a53b65b558577559c6da | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xcaf89ad3342df187b9774bb8d8e74ef43446c5809d4347359293ccc7e34ae9c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Indiana make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.493350221659278
2. Question: Will the New England Patriots finish with the worst record in the NFL? | Event: nfl-worst-record | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0... | no | 0 | which-nfl-teams-will-make-the-playoffs | Will the Denver Broncos make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? | 65,960,322 | 66,002,437 |
a9b428e9f8b090cf519f0c3806a66835f7c71ffc | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xa473d8fbceb9230cab45c8062b300ef2a0572dc21fd97749ef99b087b2d38016 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the New England Patriots finish with the worst record in the NFL? | Event: nfl-worst-record | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.014530018844082431
2. Question: Will Miami make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 0... | no | 0.000205 | cracker-of-the-year | Will another person win Cracker of the Year? | 66,002,437 | 66,002,437 |
0849189a82ade762c111fddfad285bd8ced557dd | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xa7ecbda690618f8db2bd77cfd434a4844fd7d65d3f94a7b11248bd4fd00a10c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Miami make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Arizona State make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.... | no | 0.5 | russia-claims-responsibility-for-downing-azerbaijan-plane | Russia claims responsibility for downing Azerbaijan plane? | 66,018,644 | 66,184,003 |
1e8effa060b343bb80ad03cac52a8a0df9bd01ce | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x613fad43c73b5f2469b971c4c7e6be2050a6a51d619363107ee0673bb1420696 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arizona State make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? | Event: fantasy-football-top-wr-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 5.501657429384973... | no | 1 | attempts-kai-and-speed-need-to-beat-fortnite | Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 50-74 tries? | 66,036,228 | 66,036,228 |
3ebdd782a5e186361502009144372e2f2f30b9f4 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x78711a46224d751c6eebad06c110672b0bdde93b66086b8ab6857ca10f393e3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? | Event: fantasy-football-top-wr-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 5.501657429384973e-05
2. Question: Will Clemson make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3... | no | 1 | how-many-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite | Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 100-124 tries? | 66,065,725 | 66,065,725 |
7ecbeed6375b32cff7ac46290a2cea32d41c1e26 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x0dbe3867309201480115def106391ae51aadb73d7ed1da77e677aa387e89e2c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Clemson make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the New York Giants finish with the worst record in the NFL? | Event: nfl-worst-record | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3634162760352609
3. ... | no | 0.25 | how-many-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite | Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 225-249 tries? | 66,076,052 | 66,077,177 |
3f2518857fc1bdb321ec3565bac865ba5c103e20 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x1467fb8b60357a6033554a3cdb10a755dbf1b886e57cd4a88cf3875dce5e759e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the New York Giants finish with the worst record in the NFL? | Event: nfl-worst-record | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3634162760352609
2. Question: X drops antitrust case in 2024? | Event: x-drops-antitrust-case-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9385527676096301
3. Question: Will Georgi... | no | 1 | how-many-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite | Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 125-149 tries? | 66,078,448 | 66,078,448 |
814891c3bbb0398978457fe51fd0baa7f7d031d0 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x885f9b8ea8b2f898ede2e6d5339959f62cb7ff6103b5c1a40d2a52ea6d7d7e3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: X drops antitrust case in 2024? | Event: x-drops-antitrust-case-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9385527676096301
2. Question: Will Georgia make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jay-Z arre... | no | 0.348837 | how-many-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite | Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 150-174 tries? | 66,079,466 | 66,085,279 |
12d39aeeb5fc065ee6935bbc3d7abe4b6435e5c0 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x8fdeb9628b0adad7727533f82e001a7e7d267f521ea9c0e73267fc0537b8809e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Georgia make the College Football Playoff? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-college-football-playoff | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Jay-Z arrested in 2024? | Event: jay-z-arrested-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09655906541658858
3. Question: Will Juan Soto sign with... | no | 0 | who-will-make-the-basketball-hall-of-fame | Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame? | 66,161,325 | 66,294,254 |
6686d24dd9672ea6d5c78c85ee4588d33575bb2d | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xa82f459e83e0ecb1225f097f32085c46d31e2212d5b21058afed1ae22023f904 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jay-Z arrested in 2024? | Event: jay-z-arrested-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09655906541658858
2. Question: Will Juan Soto sign with the Chicago Cubs? | Event: juan-soto-next-team | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Juan Soto sign with the San Francisco Giants? | Event: ... | no | 0.333333 | nfl-worst-record | Will the Cleveland Browns finish with the worst record in the NFL? | 66,191,080 | 66,383,209 |
925018488875de43dcf3cd547e058fbb14239ae1 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x16ddfbac61789e487fb2d5ce665a349f4c213e07b818b35437cd55dccb23ab1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juan Soto sign with the Chicago Cubs? | Event: juan-soto-next-team | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Juan Soto sign with the San Francisco Giants? | Event: juan-soto-next-team | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juan Soto sign with the Yankees? | Event: juan-... | no | 0 | cybertruck-explosion-perp-arrested-by-sunday | Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? | 66,205,773 | 66,205,773 |
ec43e5fb9f3bc44476114ca7c181214c41807615 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x71664339c00d8d6c098ee0c23b2bf88d2d1f1dae0e03e281b3ab36f9f8a5904d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juan Soto sign with the San Francisco Giants? | Event: juan-soto-next-team | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juan Soto sign with the Yankees? | Event: juan-soto-next-team | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juan Soto sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers? | Event... | no | 0 | cybertruck-explosion-perp-charged-by-wednesday | Cybertruck explosion perp charged by Wednesday? | 66,237,640 | 66,237,640 |
4d8f5b71eb40356460abcbb006e49d834efc4672 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x3c1d2240601193cf3bc0e8877584ec83aafcdbc6f513f8818331de19dfc406c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juan Soto sign with the Yankees? | Event: juan-soto-next-team | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juan Soto sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers? | Event: juan-soto-next-team | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juan Soto sign with the Boston Red Sox? | Event: juan-... | yes | 0.414448 | jay-z-in-jail-before-april | Jay-Z in jail before April? | 66,263,081 | 67,617,877 |
ccef715b5a414c466331b3734dcb81ca5263ee3d | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x8ab2393eae6dbbfc478283cea0bccf8f17dbff7e596af4f851b14f7d4d9932b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juan Soto sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers? | Event: juan-soto-next-team | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juan Soto sign with the Boston Red Sox? | Event: juan-soto-next-team | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Travis Hunter win the Heisman Trophy? | Event:... | yes | 1 | how-many-qbs-will-be-taken-in-first-3-picks-of-2025-nfl-draft | Will 3 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft? | 66,276,974 | 66,294,254 |
7ebbaaa20feb0f935a21a0803e93fcdc691be76a | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xfefa91ded1d3d44f04b0c9a07ceff77e73ebd200d6ddac75aed1b9620c6c7d6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juan Soto sign with the Boston Red Sox? | Event: juan-soto-next-team | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Travis Hunter win the Heisman Trophy? | Event: heisman-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.43518537600087787
3. Question: Will another player be the top Fantasy Tight E... | yes | 1 | which-nfl-teams-will-make-the-playoffs | Will the Atlanta Falcons make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? | 66,358,434 | 66,358,434 |
1799adbacbb184e21c6c5772191997a88ecf9025 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x1dcfd1a122433e33369ecc5d0a1d55f4211ab3eb33e77f59d11058b40fdb2740 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Travis Hunter win the Heisman Trophy? | Event: heisman-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.43518537600087787
2. Question: Will another player be the top Fantasy Tight End? | Event: fantasy-football-top-tight-end-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.010236161326385388
3. Question: Mystery ... | yes | 1 | nfl-worst-record | Will the Tennessee Titans finish with the worst record in the NFL? | 66,383,209 | 66,383,209 |
bdeecd5386422b4c6574662c34673a072ce3da2d | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x4cb28ad472d1ed9a271e808aa7687b3dcf651ce27ffd1aeef9567aee805f7878 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another player be the top Fantasy Tight End? | Event: fantasy-football-top-tight-end-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.010236161326385388
2. Question: Mystery drones shot down by Sunday? | Event: mystery-drone-shot-down-by-sunday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Lamar Ja... | yes | 1 | fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Will Joe Burrow be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | 66,383,209 | 66,383,209 |
4f6049c18031a6753d71657417fec6cfed95b3f0 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xc33cf8d8c619cca053833b2bd9428d7c0f77c57f47eafc8c6649e6ac5efd3ba8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mystery drones shot down by Sunday? | Event: mystery-drone-shot-down-by-sunday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Lamar Jackson be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | Event: fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.023150529384594862
3. Question: OpenSea token announ... | no | 1 | fantasy-football-top-tight-end-2024 | Will Trey McBride be the top Fantasy Tight End? | 66,383,209 | 66,383,209 |
9269d940443c86c83101afee05fd359c8b4f3de9 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xce0c999f3d765203f2f99de832d58d0059c84f702cebc372bd3512755f79ea51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lamar Jackson be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | Event: fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.023150529384594862
2. Question: OpenSea token announcement in 2024? | Event: opensea-token-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00029131511077671966
3. Question: Will TJ Watt ... | no | 1 | fantasy-football-top-flex-2024 | Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the top Fantasy Flex Player? | 66,383,209 | 66,383,209 |
7de8973fae07cfbc7946bab2c16ff3343ab7c1cd | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xdc7f974ec013caa69da9d3cb7e78abe7bd5e70b0f54bb59e36f92f75011fb5ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: OpenSea token announcement in 2024? | Event: opensea-token-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00029131511077671966
2. Question: Will TJ Watt win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7192209335554991
3. Question: Will the In... | yes | 0.000238 | nba-most-improved-player | Will Franz Wagner win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | 66,383,214 | 66,383,214 |
9b52b56c39c656cc6b01882b13d4e9411e269ed7 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x7d3be5cd2f8d69bdb1d3bd751cf5d083872ee6c0308cae04a0cfbf8ad2856016 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will TJ Watt win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7192209335554991
2. Question: Will the Indianapolis Colts make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? | Event: which-nfl-teams-will-make-the-playoffs | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. ... | no | 0 | which-nfl-coaches-will-get-fired-2024-25 | Will Zac Taylor get fired? | 66,394,623 | 67,851,177 |
b9b13dec3d7afa286f299e9ee4a11706c7b002ec | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xbfe257c7d0bce27fa5cb2d450dac3c2949219dbb293ea758d0d5dc27d5ec3682 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Indianapolis Colts make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? | Event: which-nfl-teams-will-make-the-playoffs | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Mystery Drones searching for nuclear weapons? | Event: mystery-drones-searching-for-nuclear-weapons | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0004911223167... | no | 0.806546 | how-many-qbs-drafted-in-round-1-of-nfl-draft | Will 1 QB get taken in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft? | 66,394,623 | 70,734,280 |
7e1afe9d663d72f1232848f8d05986f82cae8dc5 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x6d5be5c41bb78a2d0dc4129f6e09ca6f0da69beac29cda1d3eb532527846d8d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mystery Drones searching for nuclear weapons? | Event: mystery-drones-searching-for-nuclear-weapons | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0004911223167161953
2. Question: Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard? | Event: which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | next-saints-head-coach-24-25 | Will the Saints hire Mike Vrabel as their next head coach? | 66,623,440 | 66,623,440 |
0f790dca3ae64f47b76336d2b066be22fc0d090e | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xc53d7ba24f579fec637eaa0403ed099e5c4cbb09ebf04dfa1a896f1edf42062e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard? | Event: which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard | Choice: no | Confidence: 6.0836298719585904e-05
2. Question: Fact Check: Are Mystery Drones a government test? | Event: fact-check-are-mystery-drones-a-government-test | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | next-patriots-head-coach | Will the Patriots hire Ben Johnson as their next head coach? | 66,623,440 | 66,623,440 |
197ce6a2be172e8917f65c5e7ef4d0b2e0ad580c | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xc9c4c75289d3ba9665e9f01aa5ab36cc815e8dfa4dc7a16a0b9093ae6043d337 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fact Check: Are Mystery Drones a government test? | Event: fact-check-are-mystery-drones-a-government-test | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0028903055332057345
2. Question: Will Trump Media acquire a crypto exchange in 2024? | Event: will-trump-media-launch-a-crypto-exchange-in-2024 | Choice: no... | no | 0 | who-will-make-the-basketball-hall-of-fame | Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame? | 66,672,708 | 66,672,708 |
599394e4858949e84c28d2910fbc7dc7cdac27f9 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x47285d47d4d3b596011272a8ce6aa5710989f445c50d4da8bc9c82a51c6832d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump Media acquire a crypto exchange in 2024? | Event: will-trump-media-launch-a-crypto-exchange-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.1508204908082525
2. Question: Trudeau resigns by Friday? | Event: trudeau-resigns-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Braden Fiske... | no | 0 | how-many-qbs-will-be-taken-in-first-3-picks-of-2025-nfl-draft | Will zero QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft? | 66,794,237 | 66,794,237 |
0e510f890b372e658f0cf0a2bdd10507cc829127 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x8ef8c37b35eca20dd1fc43e05e11305680f1563c83c0d6542fbe2ed7aea000e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trudeau resigns by Friday? | Event: trudeau-resigns-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Braden Fiske win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year? | Event: nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hyperliquid exploit before February? | Event:... | yes | 0.333333 | next-jets-head-coach | Will the Jets hire Rex Ryan as their next head coach? | 66,794,237 | 67,138,552 |
d0d2dbb494f482cf8366a34e3fa4d845bda4c619 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x08ddb9462722d8affaccf8f972893375fcf6430afe4c413a923da5bcdcb31ae9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Braden Fiske win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year? | Event: nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid exploit before February? | Event: hyperliquid-exploit-before-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will Jimm... | yes | 0.17646 | dc-metrorail-ridership-on-inauguration-day | Will there be 700k or more rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? | 66,825,386 | 67,397,769 |
1fc9d7217d48e2c66986c8c360e886f9818031ab | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xa72dddd5e8456a6b4f83daf90c068a2e2e1cca9a6daef35797ff73f7cb634b61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid exploit before February? | Event: hyperliquid-exploit-before-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00012498437695288088
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | who-will-attend-trump-inauguration | Will Viktor Orban attend presidential inauguration? | 66,947,888 | 66,947,888 |
388bec3ec55de6e9cbf9dd78f2b7022cc6e2ee85 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x742ecf443cfe95d5beba9c760ae0493cee30905b13d0461f267f01e24330052b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00012498437695288088
2. Question: Will the Denver Broncos make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? | Event: which-nfl-teams-will-make-the-playoffs | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | next-jets-head-coach | Will the Jets hire Arthur Smith as their next head coach? | 67,138,552 | 67,138,552 |
1afeee884bfb8a520c2d7069be054258d9af6134 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x35462816333a576c6907d4b0983bcf3207dcaaa560937451c60661301f6bcd9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Denver Broncos make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? | Event: which-nfl-teams-will-make-the-playoffs | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will another person win Cracker of the Year? | Event: cracker-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0002053578195038739
3. Question: Russia cla... | no | 1 | how-long-will-it-take-jersey-jerry-to-hit-a-hole-in-one | Will it take Jerry 30-36 hours to hit a hole in one? | 67,413,239 | 67,413,239 |
c2edbf861d9d0f7c6eefa770097faca9678027f6 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xf5b2f5e93ec15fa2845990e9cd24a2fce4528c6fda4fcef3ee1b430275af665e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another person win Cracker of the Year? | Event: cracker-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0002053578195038739
2. Question: Russia claims responsibility for downing Azerbaijan plane? | Event: russia-claims-responsibility-for-downing-azerbaijan-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5
... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-it-take-jersey-jerry-to-hit-a-hole-in-one | Will it take Jerry over 60 hours to hit a hole in one? | 67,413,239 | 67,413,239 |
652dec079cc82f85b30dd1bfca08eb7b32bd801e | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xe23729e83a35359e820dfb0df0360bf85b74b65af67dbeed98ca4f71edcafa92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russia claims responsibility for downing Azerbaijan plane? | Event: russia-claims-responsibility-for-downing-azerbaijan-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 50-74 tries? | Event: attempts-kai-and-speed-need-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: no | Confid... | yes | 0.751371 | jimmy-butler-trade | Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Dallas Mavericks? | 67,530,617 | 67,617,860 |
35672c7ba52ae164bf8625fcf84fcf2d79aad48f | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x4d9f6935dcf70c4b27cd8f00ba6348191591bb9a2c842746fbb9b77dd63d57d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 50-74 tries? | Event: attempts-kai-and-speed-need-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 100-124 tries? | Event: how-many-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 0 | of-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite-2 | Will Kai and Speed take 25-49 attempts to beat Fortnite? | 67,553,668 | 67,553,668 |
b5582f350de57998ac260b33ff248b96cb43b03f | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x639eb2eca34270ea4eed51ec6459799ef1d6d3e92604309ce50e84387211db84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 100-124 tries? | Event: how-many-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 225-249 tries? | Event: how-many-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 0 | of-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite-2 | Will Kai and Speed take less than 25 attempts to beat Fortnite? | 67,553,668 | 67,553,668 |
7bf1da0869d7dc0793974c992bfef109780ed5fa | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x687f41a01bfd0bb69aa0380c60dbdc4ade8b4a9e6acf6cd4dec071529ec0cd99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 225-249 tries? | Event: how-many-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.25
2. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 125-149 tries? | Event: how-many-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 0.333317 | jimmy-butler-trade | Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Lakers? | 67,588,956 | 67,617,860 |
1f87c71ae2ae7d204715441e312b10dd757d5466 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x504353b8835ffd992cc63995b4610a7ebd9d2e4e5cc82efbab120d8f363bccd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 125-149 tries? | Event: how-many-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 150-174 tries? | Event: how-many-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 0.998762 | jimmy-butler-trade | Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Houston Rockets? | 67,617,860 | 67,617,860 |
32e2bf9f6fb5f3056b6b95e19d327febabf349ad | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xddf49ac45f081424c0850388a6a312f03d67a2edd2341c08f4b6bbbea3b05bd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 150-174 tries? | Event: how-many-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3488371941590045
2. Question: Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame? | Event: who-will-make-the-basketball-ha... | no | 1 | jimmy-butler-trade | Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | 67,617,860 | 67,617,860 |
a09d3596caac2fa89c3764b2c06e9db70342479b | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xac37a835a2d76685150f88fba259a6e493bacd4559213693d8a96a6dadd2115d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame? | Event: who-will-make-the-basketball-hall-of-fame | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Cleveland Browns finish with the worst record in the NFL? | Event: nfl-worst-record | Choice: no | Confiden... | yes | 0.191209 | nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year | Will Jayden Daniels win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? | 67,617,877 | 67,653,222 |
419ed404c997f064e7b3ae99d123ae98a2d8943c | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x3da363945310b23e303b03ef89040c6dca5577edffb2962df3c5a1186aae109a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Cleveland Browns finish with the worst record in the NFL? | Event: nfl-worst-record | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? | Event: cybertruck-explosion-perp-arrested-by-sunday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questio... | yes | 0.999846 | nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year | Will Jared Verse win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year? | 67,653,222 | 67,653,222 |
508073ecafc3b3fc3c4f7b38fcedd71ef1c4ebb9 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x8665cd2f0254a96e3f558210a109705f4f18f00f3702954c166bcb3795d5fa2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? | Event: cybertruck-explosion-perp-arrested-by-sunday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Cybertruck explosion perp charged by Wednesday? | Event: cybertruck-explosion-perp-charged-by-wednesday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: J... | yes | 1 | nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Will Patrick Surtain II win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | 67,653,222 | 67,653,222 |
9b869419862eea30cdb8de5a751bed8ba44b69bd | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x8847fc1c8ccb9dcdbb9cdb39ad0b3edefb0344da20f68fb2838d956e7758df81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Cybertruck explosion perp charged by Wednesday? | Event: cybertruck-explosion-perp-charged-by-wednesday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Jay-Z in jail before April? | Event: jay-z-in-jail-before-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4144484751326201
3. Question: Will 3 QBs get taken ... | no | 1 | nfl-coach-of-the-year | Will Dan Quinn win NFL Coach of the Year? | 67,653,222 | 67,653,222 |
aa3fdafef27392acaaf207e35503e9607d346939 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x93a4126b7d5251b7a2ad59f20af04110c892abafb41a0dfa3ddff2118a4b1e39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jay-Z in jail before April? | Event: jay-z-in-jail-before-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4144484751326201
2. Question: Will 3 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: how-many-qbs-will-be-taken-in-first-3-picks-of-2025-nfl-draft | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Will Myles Garrett win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | 67,653,222 | 67,653,222 |
9f3a1c040a26a8af983fc2519c890a6b10aca1ea | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xadb4f63a3e28ba34c7e1bf8807d6172534453cc95b729e2c8a21b1cc08c99ad8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 3 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: how-many-qbs-will-be-taken-in-first-3-picks-of-2025-nfl-draft | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Atlanta Falcons make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? | Event: which-nfl-teams-will-make-the-playoffs | Choice... | no | 1 | nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year | Will Quinyon Mitchell win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year? | 67,653,222 | 67,653,222 |
c92aa69d9bbfcfec60ce38ad16d80a2101a2c326 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xfd843741aa9223d53691e8ded8f872aaa2868cf6898feff37775cda892569884 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Atlanta Falcons make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? | Event: which-nfl-teams-will-make-the-playoffs | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Tennessee Titans finish with the worst record in the NFL? | Event: nfl-worst-record | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will J... | no | 1 | nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Will Trey Hendrickson win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | 67,653,222 | 67,653,222 |
79018c49112afc32389001732dd67e27d184745c | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x3da1c465831df40c1b3f237959f4717dc6a71ef102c98ea59a987ab270c3bd63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Tennessee Titans finish with the worst record in the NFL? | Event: nfl-worst-record | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Burrow be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | Event: fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trey McBride be the... | no | 0 | will-the-bybit-hacker-return-stolen-eth-before-march | Will Bybit hacker return stolen ETH by next Friday? | 68,211,720 | 68,211,720 |
b08e3a5d97bd78462eacddde9984a8b1da545f1f | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xff671a628b1c534d2b4d6b2eedb5d44d10b55df6aad5246a463a077fe0085d1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Burrow be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | Event: fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trey McBride be the top Fantasy Tight End? | Event: fantasy-football-top-tight-end-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the ... | yes | 1 | which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs | Will the Cleveland Cavaliers make the NBA Playoffs? | 68,604,833 | 68,604,833 |
1a21e8a97b05f0ec23acf56f9eafce898a641115 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xbc09651545ae01d4eb08f579fd81e8564d22ce0ca695601f1bae492a539cddf8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trey McBride be the top Fantasy Tight End? | Event: fantasy-football-top-tight-end-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the top Fantasy Flex Player? | Event: fantasy-football-top-flex-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Franz Wagner win ... | yes | 1 | which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder make the NBA Playoffs? | 69,049,772 | 69,049,772 |
ab039afe808a215f83153057153ac3545dde1c72 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x9f66d14b441a5af47cf31c9f063114d67c92968174c89de7badb722e0262f6a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the top Fantasy Flex Player? | Event: fantasy-football-top-flex-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Franz Wagner win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0002381849627665307
3. Question: Will Zac Tayl... | yes | 1 | adam-schiff-charged-with-treason-before-july | Adam Schiff charged with treason before July? | 69,203,699 | 73,099,697 |
af41cf96fc9226558c78aa2d8d5819614605610e | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xaa44af214a2117def6e8987dbf564c21ac48682f3197635658ae4e79fe176a01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Franz Wagner win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0002381849627665307
2. Question: Will Zac Taylor get fired? | Event: which-nfl-coaches-will-get-fired-2024-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will 1 QB get taken in the... | no | 0 | sam-altman-arrested-before-july | Sam Altman arrested before July? | 69,483,940 | 73,460,144 |
594d13488d5db92af1bba583f3f7bf43c9a83570 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x49d8f6a49da96276f1b961152dba6b4d7567c9b47bc48d8a7aef778232dbdeef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zac Taylor get fired? | Event: which-nfl-coaches-will-get-fired-2024-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will 1 QB get taken in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: how-many-qbs-drafted-in-round-1-of-nfl-draft | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8065459178679812
3. Questio... | no | 0 | trumps-birthright-citizenship-ban-unblocked-before-july | Trump's birthright citizenship ban unblocked before July? | 69,522,626 | 73,421,032 |
7dcd35c2357fea69d635961f6a31f48fb6fdd7b1 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x43c6353aaf12e34068e62043b933a6186def30bdcecfbbd461de2288b97f2505 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 1 QB get taken in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: how-many-qbs-drafted-in-round-1-of-nfl-draft | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8065459178679812
2. Question: Will the Saints hire Mike Vrabel as their next head coach? | Event: next-saints-head-coach-24-25 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 0.68 | nl-west-division-winner | Will the Colorado Rockies win the NL West Division? | 69,522,626 | 75,613,650 |
7e17fb1b166c8cf53dec6c36f3223255bf05aeef | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x7462396a2418dbcd536f707ca86de3283e4bb0f4a12f8caecc63629318726b3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Saints hire Mike Vrabel as their next head coach? | Event: next-saints-head-coach-24-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Patriots hire Ben Johnson as their next head coach? | Event: next-patriots-head-coach | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sue Bir... | no | 0.56044 | al-central-division-winner | Will the Chicago White Sox win the AL Central Division? | 69,522,626 | 76,105,021 |
92000a2ca374357f029bb82b99c90af58be669dc | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x17cd926896aa499bea870e218dc2e32c99f102237e6ae90f49f4b03d69cac4da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Patriots hire Ben Johnson as their next head coach? | Event: next-patriots-head-coach | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame? | Event: who-will-make-the-basketball-hall-of-fame | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | yes | 0.000014 | ireland-presidential-election | Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? | 69,657,902 | 69,657,902 |
f76c22f3d7fd5c8d3bc3337b33c819699e58f335 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x6b38815380c25cd7a3a13ed39fb0ebb24397154f237a2488198c133bed0533c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame? | Event: who-will-make-the-basketball-hall-of-fame | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will zero QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: how-many-qbs-will-be-taken-in-first-3-picks-of... | no | 0 | xrp-all-time-high-by-when | XRP all time high by March 31? | 69,657,902 | 69,825,243 |
e534e070ce053d4b5c76605fb1af58365604b826 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x36c83576575af62aa27da668d4310b76ad9102eb0c19ce6fe0aac88c668287d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will zero QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: how-many-qbs-will-be-taken-in-first-3-picks-of-2025-nfl-draft | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Jets hire Rex Ryan as their next head coach? | Event: next-jets-head-coach | Choice: yes | Confidence... | no | 0 | xrp-all-time-high-by-when | XRP all time high by June 30? | 69,709,855 | 73,460,151 |
988abd120974ed7b2eb12c9f4d2a9923e09c6cc7 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xff03e16574b12465ce413bf8624f37c535cfda9e3f39dd3d90b774ff6f7ca4d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Jets hire Rex Ryan as their next head coach? | Event: next-jets-head-coach | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will there be 700k or more rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? | Event: dc-metrorail-ridership-on-inauguration-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.1764599... | no | 0 | where-will-joe-milton-be-traded | Will Joe Milton be traded to the New York Giants? | 69,723,250 | 69,849,586 |
ad7d5abb78ede27a136488fc6b6e58a0bf643022 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xa77598d14f28943f7a21b30934e6482a8c942d8cbc851e9288b30307d0b49258 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be 700k or more rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? | Event: dc-metrorail-ridership-on-inauguration-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17645994934649728
2. Question: Will Viktor Orban attend presidential inauguration? | Event: who-will-attend-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 0 | nba-most-improved-player | Will Benedict Mathurin win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | 69,825,258 | 70,096,864 |
dcc7aa6fa592c78eea5cadad9196fcaddc6905a4 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xdc64a3513766e6a915f440f2abc44fb97244bd7ecf46d2aefb815c05f1844359 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktor Orban attend presidential inauguration? | Event: who-will-attend-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Jets hire Arthur Smith as their next head coach? | Event: next-jets-head-coach | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will it take Jerry 30... | no | 0 | which-teams-will-draft-a-qb | Will the Colts draft a QB in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft? | 69,849,586 | 70,734,288 |
84db5f4e06471234ec31530ff0318b964ff49e33 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xc94f8b9943eee3d48298f072f91231d54a60be3879adfcb9fe9f5604432faa4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Jets hire Arthur Smith as their next head coach? | Event: next-jets-head-coach | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will it take Jerry 30-36 hours to hit a hole in one? | Event: how-long-will-it-take-jersey-jerry-to-hit-a-hole-in-one | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | where-will-joe-milton-be-traded | Will Joe Milton be traded to the Tennessee Titans? | 69,903,380 | 69,903,380 |
a1587e102c34f47063d63eb323f8080044f219e5 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x96ac7b3cd2322768c3c2d4d80c1bf8471f013d267a2b7a1630adf23d56e6e10f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will it take Jerry 30-36 hours to hit a hole in one? | Event: how-long-will-it-take-jersey-jerry-to-hit-a-hole-in-one | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will it take Jerry over 60 hours to hit a hole in one? | Event: how-long-will-it-take-jersey-jerry-to-hit-a-hole-in-one | Choice: y... | yes | 0.000044 | will-trump-claim-he-crashed-the-market-on-purpose | Will Trump claim he crashed the market on purpose? | 70,071,580 | 70,071,580 |
9f4a302adba01b5fd675e89f51e08e83a6fdfe21 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x84098d083f52a52f4a01200e547d652bc65bb68f80a82d2608f2861e3961a471 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will it take Jerry over 60 hours to hit a hole in one? | Event: how-long-will-it-take-jersey-jerry-to-hit-a-hole-in-one | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Dallas Mavericks? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7513710717896197... | no | 1 | which-country-will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-first | Will Trump lower tariffs on China next? | 70,153,207 | 70,153,207 |
f2c310163879aa137216d45838527ad7072d199c | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xa933f722cea9dfde3edb0fb506598cd252e73c353a9e1a006fd1e1e069277d30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Dallas Mavericks? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7513710717896197
2. Question: Will Kai and Speed take 25-49 attempts to beat Fortnite? | Event: of-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Qu... | yes | 0.333346 | al-east-division-winner | Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the AL East Division? | 70,171,348 | 77,053,271 |
24f205c3333e9203539adb16ea6958eacb8e1fcc | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x38b6022a9a7a076190d8ea3bc3fc289e7fbc3b2de4ca7e47ac1f933f2f47f9a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kai and Speed take 25-49 attempts to beat Fortnite? | Event: of-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kai and Speed take less than 25 attempts to beat Fortnite? | Event: of-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite-2 | Choice: no... | no | 0.081035 | freestyle-chess-grand-slam-paris-winner | Will another player win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris? | 70,255,938 | 70,317,915 |
fd234546b27778ae8cd3e1ab84455d065471442f | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x07eb4756c12b3a0ed81d032fdb7824341e01e62d3e16850224b20cf0cc92426f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kai and Speed take less than 25 attempts to beat Fortnite? | Event: of-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Lakers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33331744406575... | yes | 1 | bahrain-grand-prix-winner | Will Esteban Ocon win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix? | 70,271,856 | 70,271,856 |
166cc354d7b2b1872ee6e9c2feff2c790fb6811e | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x319b9c9d0d0a598cf0eda67c350d588d939bd12566344adf0651107722c272f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Lakers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33331744406575026
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Houston Rockets? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.998761749765716
3. Question: Will Jimmy... | yes | 1 | f1-bahrain-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points | Will Williams have the highest Constructor score at the Bahrain GP? | 70,271,856 | 70,271,856 |
3ebc061d261c24ec9b794d4e4d00feeaa73c31d4 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x417638477e611fa31b72931821784fbe65496b2624116b5ba306dbc6cbcd7ed8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Houston Rockets? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.998761749765716
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jayden Daniels win... | yes | 1 | f1-bahrain-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points | Will Sauber have the highest Constructor score at the Bahrain GP? | 70,271,856 | 70,271,856 |
7b144c06832ffe408ee4d93b58f090b5e009908c | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x677236b0267d0adb7ea81d004a63095089646c44f219418a75e82dd454c7b1a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jayden Daniels win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? | Event: nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.19120876276778068
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | f1-bahrain-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points | Will Haas have the highest Constructor score at the Bahrain GP? | 70,271,856 | 70,271,856 |
189c49b2e1c1bebb7b32859a450169369fbe6678 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x78f44364b27c59b1262be04e941c661057271ec66d0af33f555db8d42868dc15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayden Daniels win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? | Event: nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.19120876276778068
2. Question: Will Jared Verse win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year? | Event: nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.99984... | yes | 1 | bahrain-grand-prix-winner | Will Oliver Bearman win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix? | 70,271,856 | 70,271,856 |
ec23abe35cec130a3c4dc4f4696c7877dbf7e055 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xdfe3c3d94682338c70ae578f24a424541f9cf801c1f6178cb4c7f98851af8916 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jared Verse win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year? | Event: nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9998463728499946
2. Question: Will Patrick Surtain II win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | f1-bahrain-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points | Will Ferrari have the highest Constructor score at the Bahrain GP? | 70,271,856 | 70,271,856 |
1e4a5af4bf44c9447ac305705c1de35ffe31acd1 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x290945bd27805e9af46e1ff398a0a6f04fc8753316938e17dfe77c33c0592e01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Patrick Surtain II win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dan Quinn win NFL Coach of the Year? | Event: nfl-coach-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Myles Garrett win NFL ... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will Luca Doncic lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,278,603 | 70,278,603 |
c86e29497c8e348470287201dc6637f162c736b7 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x51b431a9a50585cf4e33e22c3d9f7d73ea6f0bce08947287f948d217a74a8b1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dan Quinn win NFL Coach of the Year? | Event: nfl-coach-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Myles Garrett win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Quinyon Mitchell win NFL Def... | yes | 1 | nba-assists-leader | Will Darius Garland lead the NBA in Assists? | 70,278,603 | 70,278,603 |
46d771f5e4d9fa77ea7030151f0e0209065086f0 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x9b90da2423f840d606d0858850460352e2d4c76551911ae203a12ab3988d9913 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Myles Garrett win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Quinyon Mitchell win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year? | Event: nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | nba-3-point-field-goal-leader | Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in 3 Point Field Goals? | 70,278,603 | 70,278,603 |
053599730d2a956d73553f61e9883be949023456 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xb298918571758a64a70636cedc7d7d843ce41722af927d4a8ecf48aa0c0ececd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Quinyon Mitchell win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year? | Event: nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trey Hendrickson win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | nba-3-point-field-goal-leader | Will another player lead the NBA in 3 Point Field Goals? | 70,278,603 | 70,278,603 |
3466616751c39269f01557471fbec8a1a432269e | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xb187c6b9547311659809f859338cf640dd5e42ea00077329200a2f47e1df5f23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trey Hendrickson win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bybit hacker return stolen ETH by next Friday? | Event: will-the-bybit-hacker-return-stolen-eth-before-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3.... | no | 0 | canadian-election-debate-mentions-poilievre | Will Poilievre say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17? | 70,396,332 | 70,438,451 |
736a0a10ccbdcb137128614f5411ceadd80d553f | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x16e3c5f048ed05f249a88eab3cafcce8116253f7af2387346e6e00738d88fb06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bybit hacker return stolen ETH by next Friday? | Event: will-the-bybit-hacker-return-stolen-eth-before-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Cleveland Cavaliers make the NBA Playoffs? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | 2025-gabonese-presidential-election-winner | Will Axel Stophen Ibinga Ibinga win the 2025 Gabonese Presidential election? | 70,411,772 | 70,411,772 |
dfd488e5b426b73917beb55830aa10e9cd6df991 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xa706b507c4894f36a305d923da2001c32aacd4d6efe2329d1d63816727d45a4a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Cleveland Cavaliers make the NBA Playoffs? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Oklahoma City Thunder make the NBA Playoffs? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: A... | yes | 1 | 2025-gabonese-presidential-election-winner | Will Stéphane Germain Iloko win the 2025 Gabonese Presidential election? | 70,411,772 | 70,411,772 |
eb5566637618d0d8392a1eeb4fb17ee8868e8d69 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xdd58cb01c67184ee1d0f8e1c43ba38c820f36e1d0ad50cb80740aacd0615adaa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oklahoma City Thunder make the NBA Playoffs? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Adam Schiff charged with treason before July? | Event: adam-schiff-charged-with-treason-before-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | 2025-gabonese-presidential-election-winner | Will Thierry Yvon Michel N’goma win the 2025 Gabonese Presidential election? | 70,411,772 | 70,411,772 |
27f6e321669201a7d1597603f6225547d276a3f5 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xe4a379cc1edd7719c822e6b895c085dc1c1c82910f04115c702e0ccd17c60f10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Adam Schiff charged with treason before July? | Event: adam-schiff-charged-with-treason-before-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Sam Altman arrested before July? | Event: sam-altman-arrested-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Trump's birthright citizenshi... | yes | 1 | 2025-gabonese-presidential-election-winner | Will Zenaba Chaning Gninga win the 2025 Gabonese Presidential election? | 70,411,772 | 70,411,772 |
0a43f9cd573a447cd8c2342c1704cdf5f1c74ff7 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xc8139cdb87ae6930329a7725f4e9dc0be21ab46b7ded8900c01dda66208bf266 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Sam Altman arrested before July? | Event: sam-altman-arrested-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump's birthright citizenship ban unblocked before July? | Event: trumps-birthright-citizenship-ban-unblocked-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-322 | Will Trump say "Ass" this week? | 70,434,690 | 70,499,363 |
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