sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
952244cf91e00b566c52bc0813b7111207e60bde | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x0ae90a278b582e17183d3700599ea9b23f0169333a29efafa2a61c3ab73be3b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump's birthright citizenship ban unblocked before July? | Event: trumps-birthright-citizenship-ban-unblocked-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Colorado Rockies win the NL West Division? | Event: nl-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.68
3. Questi... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-322 | Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? | 70,450,886 | 70,450,886 |
4fe799acdc3d17888d952a3ca41ed2b384670e25 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x4635332639caccb7160f62bbb9ba118a3ff903a2c3e7b0c5b1f5405ab4ecf291 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Colorado Rockies win the NL West Division? | Event: nl-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.68
2. Question: Will the Chicago White Sox win the AL Central Division? | Event: al-central-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5604395604395604
3. Question: Will Conor M... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-322 | Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? | 70,450,886 | 70,450,886 |
297ac9fc1da26b3ddacb4701f5121f7f6c9c8915 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xe2db34d92c5b9313b4c19af2475e7d6129bbf866ba42253cee6a714d09f0640d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Chicago White Sox win the AL Central Division? | Event: al-central-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5604395604395604
2. Question: Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? | Event: ireland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.4295204349946183... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-322 | Will Trump say "DOGE" this week? | 70,468,873 | 70,499,363 |
ffbc18d89b95897e4a876696da79553ee3c5177e | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x1f0120c3e9d314a4625bd2d7e23a0a2d164b83363f1ff26ac2fd1ada392f5846 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? | Event: ireland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.4295204349946183e-05
2. Question: XRP all time high by March 31? | Event: xrp-all-time-high-by-when | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP all time high by Ju... | no | 0.047081 | who-will-trump-pardon-in-2025 | Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025? | 70,468,873 | 78,840,588 |
747448a50f5447c168748528531f29c61c4634bf | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x87af4700bc0a71fd07178b4407d5a17070a4486289c416982a5df70a16bba620 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP all time high by March 31? | Event: xrp-all-time-high-by-when | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP all time high by June 30? | Event: xrp-all-time-high-by-when | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Joe Milton be traded to the New York Giants? | Event: where-will-joe-... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-322 | Will Trump say "Gold Card" this week? | 70,472,210 | 70,499,363 |
842e9fc804df9d164fdeb67cd8a5791c330eb143 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xfe6d1259127853e0d4a7a689f26618ccb6452d3d25fd9511f49d37a2b43f534b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP all time high by June 30? | Event: xrp-all-time-high-by-when | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Joe Milton be traded to the New York Giants? | Event: where-will-joe-milton-be-traded | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Benedict Mathurin win 2024-25 NBA Most Impro... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-322 | Will Trump say "WTO" or "World Trade Organization" this week? | 70,472,210 | 70,499,363 |
f0eeca7e5135f45dfc7fb9cdae15857e2f0ed88c | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xa75b54771d76c111f5e8e0d5032452ba35dc4f41009440ad0ce99239ccb1d864 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Milton be traded to the New York Giants? | Event: where-will-joe-milton-be-traded | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Benedict Mathurin win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the Colts draft a QB ... | tristan (usc) | 0.00001 | sperm-race-tristian-usc-vs-asher-ucla | Sperm Race: Tristan (USC) vs Asher (UCLA) | 70,499,446 | 70,499,446 |
484f352db78962c90ce73bb541bdb4b25fe03cfb | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x4e56b9d3ffffea163cbce63df8f419711af24c8f2e01ec118a126338419e50d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Benedict Mathurin win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Colts draft a QB in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: which-teams-will-draft-a-qb | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Joe Mil... | no | 0.746194 | al-east-division-winner | Will the Baltimore Orioles win the AL East Division? | 70,499,446 | 76,464,877 |
9dae10756a8fab8b944feee82c3d2ea6481c6882 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x1b1a86752a9c24634a9c670e496fe3c7abebc375808616c4d9405adcadfdb8a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Colts draft a QB in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: which-teams-will-draft-a-qb | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Joe Milton be traded to the Tennessee Titans? | Event: where-will-joe-milton-be-traded | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will T... | no | 0.000034 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-234 | Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? | 70,519,152 | 70,543,739 |
00039dab2db5768a053976bd3e97d21e3d274af5 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x20a4910e77f4c4044959d5e960788eddfe039e96b0a269debd6076537c06110b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Milton be traded to the Tennessee Titans? | Event: where-will-joe-milton-be-traded | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump claim he crashed the market on purpose? | Event: will-trump-claim-he-crashed-the-market-on-purpose | Choice: yes | Confidence: 4.445197589032832... | yes | 1 | nba-6th-man-of-the-year | Will Russel Westbrook win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? | 70,580,967 | 70,580,967 |
2ff315cde2bda29b9cec7a1fe8b959585ba02300 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xee4253b96d6b04be3b17eb36b9abc5faa261214bf5b8d83bcf71ce9a78efdfb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump claim he crashed the market on purpose? | Event: will-trump-claim-he-crashed-the-market-on-purpose | Choice: yes | Confidence: 4.4451975890328324e-05
2. Question: Will Trump lower tariffs on China next? | Event: which-country-will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-first | Choice: no | Confid... | yes | 1 | nba-6th-man-of-the-year | Will Tari Eason win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? | 70,580,967 | 70,580,967 |
2534b2dc847fad2d71d487136426115302d48252 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xf2bdf3ec20d8ec90f2622bab3f7fd3d75990af53d6fb1635e4f79d5e893dda1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lower tariffs on China next? | Event: which-country-will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-first | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the AL East Division? | Event: al-east-division-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333461108662084
3. Question: Will a... | no | 1 | nba-rookie-of-the-year | Will Zach Edey win NBA Rookie of the Year? | 70,580,967 | 70,580,967 |
d127228493e6381b6464f1f594b9aecd880b5215 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x415adc04b490ab970a2c773d3e5ee3300586334cedd37d7fd6e410298af6d2b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the AL East Division? | Event: al-east-division-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333461108662084
2. Question: Will another player win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris? | Event: freestyle-chess-grand-slam-paris-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.08... | yes | 1 | nba-clutch-player-of-the-year | Will Anthony Edwards win the 2024-25 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? | 70,700,666 | 70,700,666 |
ae94902f228da79c5e1f52d50d853b615cfd3bc9 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x0466e5171722b334fe94c28f86e2a59066c97bdf93916da99d43c73d2fc7874c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another player win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris? | Event: freestyle-chess-grand-slam-paris-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.08103518574293726
2. Question: Will Esteban Ocon win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix? | Event: bahrain-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Will Ashton Jeanty be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | 70,723,592 | 70,723,592 |
7bd637bfd30aa78a3a1a064c615e83f8e94ab1b3 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x0830a705c78d71eeb293870cd2cdee9bb03464875f26f9713d698a3e9622520f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Esteban Ocon win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix? | Event: bahrain-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Williams have the highest Constructor score at the Bahrain GP? | Event: f1-bahrain-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | who-will-make-the-first-pick-of-the-20-25-nfl-draft | Will the Browns make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | 70,723,592 | 70,723,592 |
220fa3f34f1e875fb7579bc4ded93379c6fee37f | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x1570f6ce49758886a95909abbf485e443e4d525eca0793cba96c42486810ceb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Williams have the highest Constructor score at the Bahrain GP? | Event: f1-bahrain-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sauber have the highest Constructor score at the Bahrain GP? | Event: f1-bahrain-grand-prix-which-const... | yes | 1 | who-will-make-the-first-pick-of-the-20-25-nfl-draft | Will the Panthers make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | 70,723,592 | 70,723,592 |
4a125da7bc607b7f84b5d76bd3a65b1b43b443cc | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x51308d8d4aa23cdc30b881e4462a14a13b8d574dc4991c8bff4d2156f9a02203 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sauber have the highest Constructor score at the Bahrain GP? | Event: f1-bahrain-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Haas have the highest Constructor score at the Bahrain GP? | Event: f1-bahrain-grand-prix-which-construct... | yes | 1 | 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Will another player be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | 70,723,592 | 70,723,592 |
af56ada3ba53424e341f350f293fc33f63a93851 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x972fc92cc67843040e0ead65c53b508374339525f32a311691d67020a9009866 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Haas have the highest Constructor score at the Bahrain GP? | Event: f1-bahrain-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oliver Bearman win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix? | Event: bahrain-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confiden... | yes | 1 | first-pick-of-2025-nfl-draft | Will Shedeur Sanders be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | 70,723,592 | 70,723,592 |
8b700f1cd450eb9626e3bebe9b6f4e2ad7529af4 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x9a468179b9715012e6223feb73055a12bb58f58151cd8749e82e538fd4a4fe87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oliver Bearman win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix? | Event: bahrain-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ferrari have the highest Constructor score at the Bahrain GP? | Event: f1-bahrain-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points | Choice: yes | Confi... | no | 1 | first-pick-of-2025-nfl-draft | Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | 70,723,592 | 70,723,592 |
588247077dd25533d92dcf051191f918f34d0730 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xa041270857468447f90a73e15f9728b14348463d8658696e4c03f88ceac61ecb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ferrari have the highest Constructor score at the Bahrain GP? | Event: f1-bahrain-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luca Doncic lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Will Will Campbell be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | 70,723,592 | 70,723,592 |
a88d169ef84c5f77044a16c31f743eb0648372af | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xdfc6bd3e524d917cc6b61eefc4cc20c9eda92fb5821ea2ffa982a61748b0b580 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luca Doncic lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Darius Garland lead the NBA in Assists? | Event: nba-assists-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in 3 Point Field Goals? | Ev... | yes | 1 | 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Will Mike Green be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | 70,723,592 | 70,723,592 |
d9728cca0cc3d7db343f860782f7a3622088463a | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x62ed86291ef515434e4aa9610fc5befa78b1aca8edf9e245ad4705745e34da68 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Darius Garland lead the NBA in Assists? | Event: nba-assists-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in 3 Point Field Goals? | Event: nba-3-point-field-goal-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another player lead the NBA in... | yes | 1 | 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Will Cam Ward be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | 70,723,730 | 70,723,730 |
0581fb3e59f5e2bb606f5123a6641f1a181a5f7d | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xa85123107b9ac27be856a8ef235bc2efca2956179a9232d697b23485b5433a84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in 3 Point Field Goals? | Event: nba-3-point-field-goal-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another player lead the NBA in 3 Point Field Goals? | Event: nba-3-point-field-goal-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Poiliev... | yes | 1 | 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Will Armand Membou be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | 70,724,011 | 70,724,011 |
b6b422824f014c486d607eedc000135920beb3ba | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x9e031390120f0bda73e326b58460ff4585a709bf5765825c0121f761b9d9b767 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another player lead the NBA in 3 Point Field Goals? | Event: nba-3-point-field-goal-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Poilievre say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17? | Event: canadian-election-debate-mentions-poilievre | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | who-will-the-giants-draft | Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? | 70,734,280 | 70,734,280 |
491102cfd336ffad86646bbd0cc86d19f206a4eb | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xf16c6532de7c768406e4db1d4a213c6a01d45b9a151daf00fa6b40151feef78b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Poilievre say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17? | Event: canadian-election-debate-mentions-poilievre | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Axel Stophen Ibinga Ibinga win the 2025 Gabonese Presidential election? | Event: 2025-gabonese-presidenti... | no | 1 | what-team-will-draft-ashton-jeanty | Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Cowboys? | 70,734,280 | 70,734,280 |
f8a542f23e1f35dc1c34c450572c914bbd919e96 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x3e19b3524ab05f4100aca0227f022d3592627fab7d0b652784233510389793b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Axel Stophen Ibinga Ibinga win the 2025 Gabonese Presidential election? | Event: 2025-gabonese-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Stéphane Germain Iloko win the 2025 Gabonese Presidential election? | Event: 2025-gabonese-presidential-election-w... | yes | 1 | who-will-make-the-first-pick-of-the-20-25-nfl-draft | Will the Jaguars make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | 70,734,288 | 70,734,288 |
11dd37f6f68d7e7597f100ba29162b4bf91dc243 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x4b97eb3043c02a7c4055a188f1a9c188b8dec8953ec59599c03f5612d1ca975e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stéphane Germain Iloko win the 2025 Gabonese Presidential election? | Event: 2025-gabonese-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Thierry Yvon Michel N’goma win the 2025 Gabonese Presidential election? | Event: 2025-gabonese-presidential-election-w... | yes | 1 | 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Will Jalon Walker be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | 70,734,288 | 70,734,288 |
17560b33afd344d0f3bd1e0db745a65e17b697a7 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xa86f488233080cba4148e3b3e2baa60f3e420bc51889fe986adbdab30c60a882 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thierry Yvon Michel N’goma win the 2025 Gabonese Presidential election? | Event: 2025-gabonese-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zenaba Chaning Gninga win the 2025 Gabonese Presidential election? | Event: 2025-gabonese-presidential-election-wi... | yes | 1 | 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Will Tetairoa McMillan be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | 70,734,288 | 70,734,288 |
763e2c4387e2fd064ede26f3ea5915a6215f9214 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xdf214a432b2ec779cd99ec270ee4b865cde1d907bde9ad0e6cc8693cf1d317c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zenaba Chaning Gninga win the 2025 Gabonese Presidential election? | Event: 2025-gabonese-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Ass" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-322 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | patriots-first-pick | Will the Patriots draft Shedeur Sanders? | 70,734,288 | 70,734,288 |
7acdc9d953aa5005bcc066fac2fffa2729ea9557 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xfef8937eef7d5bc66952c79c12d7f52a822ac8aca2f22c48da4c7a9967d497eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Ass" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-322 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-322 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? | Ev... | yes | 0.492545 | jaguars-first-pick | Will the Jaguars draft Cameron Ward? | 70,734,288 | 70,734,288 |
3b307a7103e2f367ad3b7359fc0af91c3713ecb4 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xb70f6b8cd941f57e28e59132df85595c6be2ad1079b07a165c76a7deb23b53da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-322 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-322 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "DOGE" this week? | E... | yes | 1 | 3rd-qb-taken-in-2025-nfl-draft | Will Quinn Ewers be the third QB taken in the 2025 NFL Draft? | 70,763,007 | 70,763,007 |
70cac80296402f1287f9979d37d36f024a7e5f75 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xc095bde1c916f4ab2ca6e7572a287f7caf952cf92ece2bd45aa5ae68c3401183 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-322 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "DOGE" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-322 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025? | Event: w... | yes | 1 | 3rd-qb-taken-in-2025-nfl-draft | Will Dillon Gabriel be the third QB taken in the 2025 NFL Draft? | 70,763,007 | 70,763,007 |
e07fe4722ebfa6b6f3ae21edf911daaf7ee9a1ad | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x173fceefefd02398c0d8979a5bf5a21d5452d9741a5a32efaad6006547f3fe95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "DOGE" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-322 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025? | Event: who-will-trump-pardon-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0470809577494755
3. Question: Will Trump say "Gold Card" this we... | no | 1 | which-team-will-draft-shedeur-sanders | Will the Colts draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? | 70,800,786 | 70,800,786 |
865c888f6c4aa5121d41a6a5c9dc61e3e159e445 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x53a983bf49015f4b2b409e0ba0d61511292dedf194f1bb5fcd47acab676fcf4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025? | Event: who-will-trump-pardon-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0470809577494755
2. Question: Will Trump say "Gold Card" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-322 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "WTO" or "Worl... | no | 1 | what-round-will-shedeur-sanders-be-drafterd | Will Shedeur Sanders be drafted in rounds four through seven? | 70,800,786 | 70,800,786 |
a010d399fffc2b8e1462eeeea69cbf765189477c | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x60f8e12ecdf423d685f480368b9c62fe93680c7ccbc72e0f85bb35ebf57c626c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Gold Card" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-322 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "WTO" or "World Trade Organization" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-322 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Sperm Race: Tristan... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-234 | Will Trump say "Denmark" this week? | 70,800,786 | 70,800,786 |
959d8c236c945e66cc5d9e562c54c2e7cb629167 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x749263013171570cf8b99586cb3b05fba5af5fe3aa435e7ea0e2e904a0066f5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "WTO" or "World Trade Organization" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-322 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Sperm Race: Tristan (USC) vs Asher (UCLA) | Event: sperm-race-tristian-usc-vs-asher-ucla | Choice: tristan (usc) | Confidence: 9.636015181990953... | yes | 0.690917 | which-team-will-draft-shedeur-sanders | Will the Patriots draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? | 70,800,786 | 70,800,786 |
033b9ee87d0eefb3519019a75be9f4534f170682 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xb2d0f5dfb9987c8d3a9a904663b86ebcbdfc12cdb8789d9b8d683048d07dbca7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Sperm Race: Tristan (USC) vs Asher (UCLA) | Event: sperm-race-tristian-usc-vs-asher-ucla | Choice: tristan (usc) | Confidence: 9.636015181990953e-06
2. Question: Will the Baltimore Orioles win the AL East Division? | Event: al-east-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7461939792322967... | no | 0.148574 | which-team-will-draft-shedeur-sanders | Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? | 70,800,786 | 70,800,786 |
c4d75afa8cd1567c851d3bd91210cda5f706e39e | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x65b1d577215e6f7f50efd2d66de608f0d4cdfd442949f46a69366ebb09f65cb8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Baltimore Orioles win the AL East Division? | Event: al-east-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7461939792322967
2. Question: Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-234 | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.3992645454931... | no | 1 | canada-election-of-seats-margin-of-victory | Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? | 70,936,579 | 70,936,579 |
94059db26627794be3cc50ab0d43bb5dd79e2de8 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x244c75b2c6095b2e67699c10d0c6548d757d58a1ffea32ad6882c9a389803bd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-234 | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.3992645454931286e-05
2. Question: Will Russel Westbrook win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? | Event: nba-6th-man-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-canada | Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | 70,955,178 | 70,955,178 |
e681952ac7c3217d7468c0ba4ce50183ace03772 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x5527761bcbbf6cae99c676bf1a50f53feffa47f67997b8e115a7030755aa4e80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Russel Westbrook win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? | Event: nba-6th-man-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tari Eason win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? | Event: nba-6th-man-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Zach Edey win NBA Ro... | no | 1 | of-seats-ndp-win-in-canadian-election-lower-brackets | Will the NDP win 2 or fewer seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election? | 70,955,178 | 70,955,178 |
bf2fdbfa2d05908a60ed6bca0167d38f5f28b465 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xb93d06094398583af003c0f2b3319e4cf2f080fb1e304aadfccbc870600751e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tari Eason win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? | Event: nba-6th-man-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zach Edey win NBA Rookie of the Year? | Event: nba-rookie-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Anthony Edwards win the 2024-25 NBA Cl... | no | 1 | us-gdp-growth-in-q1-2025 | Will U.S. GDP growth be greater than 2% in Q1 2025? | 70,955,178 | 70,955,178 |
18a9c7ff09eafd8a9932970a4eb7c26571271a5a | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xef5fea9ed28d5ba9c41cc0c0aab8c3f86141c0ed42703ccd278df915cfe34db7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zach Edey win NBA Rookie of the Year? | Event: nba-rookie-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anthony Edwards win the 2024-25 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? | Event: nba-clutch-player-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ashton Jeanty be ... | no | 1 | of-seats-ndp-win-in-canadian-election-lower-brackets | Will the NDP win 9 or more seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election? | 70,955,178 | 70,955,178 |
9c58a3d2ba2a43782722e9db93b55e7afba83f10 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x588942a457109816e1662e853dced83d20eabe52049ff61e7043a459e3c35298 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Anthony Edwards win the 2024-25 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? | Event: nba-clutch-player-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ashton Jeanty be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 0.99966 | nba-most-improved-player | Will Ivica Zubac win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | 71,003,923 | 71,003,923 |
c4165ccb32b2d9150916a1d03cf85f2af9b5261e | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x8119dab8fc17417d695c340c86a7667743da77c40d8af8b4cb7ab9b758512dae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ashton Jeanty be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Browns make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: who-will-make-the-first-pick-of-the-20-25-nfl-draft | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 0.328673 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-philippines-election | Will PDP win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2025 Philippine general election? | 71,070,711 | 71,070,711 |
97f37d45e5bbf2e7b9c7b79173d8cddbf467abea | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x2154f831acd9d812fff7c02197358b8bcde3236774e7ace99b586cd300d37aad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Browns make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: who-will-make-the-first-pick-of-the-20-25-nfl-draft | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Panthers make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: who-will-make-the-first-pick-of-the-20-25-nfl-draft | Choi... | yes | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-2 | Will Trump's approval rating be 46.0% or higher on May 2? | 71,087,723 | 71,087,723 |
0ec73405c4a9e02c49e16de97b704ecef4ade8bb | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x48c772dfbfc2d4e94494efc5693b1b19aef44b194aaf0bdf2bef8cef33d3423c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Panthers make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: who-will-make-the-first-pick-of-the-20-25-nfl-draft | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another player be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get less than 60m views in first 24 hours? | 71,245,539 | 71,245,539 |
dfa0ecb3d08c2f818e3bafb0b27a2bb00820e3ed | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x9ebcc8ac8f2eefaaec5572555b186e5c6f4a2c22a1a6499d32d57775b0d9effd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another player be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shedeur Sanders be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: first-pick-of-2025-nfl-draft | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cam... | no | 1 | of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 60m and 70m views in first 24 hours? | 71,245,539 | 71,245,539 |
e364ab258628ad833ba2682dfba46eaf7b3b0845 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x557b840971231d763312f40418a2028664127e97563825113749e09cb6695475 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shedeur Sanders be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: first-pick-of-2025-nfl-draft | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: first-pick-of-2025-nfl-draft | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wi... | no | 1 | of-rounds-to-elect-next-pope | Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots? | 71,326,256 | 71,326,256 |
7c937d9366c0e3fd34bc31762d1dbf2c99099d94 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xe5e6abcc1d442e72f6f990f3023f6bc9dc2da191f8c0969c64d76156a7eac72f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: first-pick-of-2025-nfl-draft | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Will Campbell be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Gre... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-at-medicare-drug-price-plan-event-on-may-12 | Will Trump say "RFK" or "Kennedy" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event? | 71,365,742 | 71,365,742 |
27f0e4bd0adc062dbf042194d616a09f167dcedb | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xee73ea99f126df52a3bbc37a51c9bd1254dd6185e3a0ae1aef0693af4bd4879f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Will Campbell be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Green be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cam Ward be t... | no | 0.953958 | conservative-party-of-vote-in-canada-election | Will the Conservative Party win between 32% and 35% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election? | 71,365,742 | 73,421,032 |
7461e38ac2bc44079f5f5a5918bee5071742d5c8 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0xe1fc092efc212c1ec193fc191e399ada129935f78f7668e97b4f6cb89b01d157 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mike Green be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cam Ward be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Armand Membou be t... | yes | 0.514142 | nl-central-division-winner | Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the NL Central Division? | 71,365,742 | 77,388,043 |
045705045f85c48ced56508001e9488061e2605b | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x14769e436a150dd79a62122626a45c5b6b872ac904b9eec55f5e970aeaab4784 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cam Ward be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Armand Membou be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Giants draf... | no | 1 | next-government-of-canada | Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? | 71,641,468 | 71,641,468 |
5cc421cd2d88eda8a91d9b6c0808e78522e87064 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x47924b13d019a057704e9843681a44642a74c369212e5ac65636569e2ad5bcae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Armand Membou be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? | Event: who-will-the-giants-draft | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by th... | no | 0 | turnout-in-2025-romanian-presindetial-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 10–10.5m? | 71,729,656 | 71,729,656 |
3a6713ed4ca12016a627ef3fa2fe1248e1b98eee | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x9606382dcfa3407b5fb5ae31b48893028df3b560ff1cb3ed87f2fa4d3b4fb01c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? | Event: who-will-the-giants-draft | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Cowboys? | Event: what-team-will-draft-ashton-jeanty | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Jaguars make the first pick of ... | no | 1 | nba-mvp-2024-25 | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | 71,895,858 | 71,895,858 |
703c53b3e9a7044fc962377c73ed2504f94229da | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x6f9b32ed80e35ae09e86e1d957edba8049abc4dc0025ba4d0190618408f80be5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Cowboys? | Event: what-team-will-draft-ashton-jeanty | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Jaguars make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: who-will-make-the-first-pick-of-the-20-25-nfl-draft | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | no | 1 | fetterman-out-in-may | Fetterman out in May? | 72,293,178 | 72,293,178 |
18650a314a4290b54758c35b9d80272ad5394de8 | 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | 0x3182024b44caf68f738981b5e07c672331ea97ef462eace737b04a3126d51f3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Jaguars make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: who-will-make-the-first-pick-of-the-20-25-nfl-draft | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jalon Walker be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Event: 2025-nfl-draft-2nd-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 0.575232 | 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Will Karl-Anthony Towns Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | 72,634,163 | 72,634,163 |
ec2aa1e2f29b9f5ccc50fb02c4f92a8cfcd2e365 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x545a905bdf7f7ff5e2f2fef7b1d5d42330f2786e05f2479261b650424fd8a400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division?
Event: al-west-division-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | al-west-division-winner | Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | 76,516,334 | 76,516,334 |
e1d4d7a36fab5afe5dde9cc45f339dfa4ed68d45 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x507aca164fd82191980b5f56cdc5f2ee6857a65029fd975b08e9201c66bf7600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31?
Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the targ... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | 76,518,082 | 76,518,082 |
ba887e25fe9a74f00931a3a1e5695e89a673de41 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x7ed3623338dcaac8a5f4a887069eb91c9cca7bf77664d503e3d86a546ddfa400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will US ... | no | 1 | gdp-growth-in-2025 | Will US GDP growth in 2025 be less than 0.5%? | 76,525,817 | 76,525,817 |
1628a4a14936e8500aa6cc04d4384014e75f534b | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x85d7c9f6da343d5a539c59944f98ba6876fb01c699e4c788ab8c7454f51d1c00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,529,296 | 76,547,184 |
670f84f704fa68a27d0ff3776ca21f1a3ad8564c | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0xcd0a6d81d93edba517901144c8f6a0c09ac7e0ba265cff9d07fa93cabcaf8e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | sud-lan-flu-2025-09-16 | Will CA Lanús win on 2025-09-16? | 76,542,622 | 76,542,622 |
2287ba303bb6552f7f612f10a5920d5c1365a05b | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x3af1462df0cd35d38d9f5fc506a84badc971b625eb41aabd16b3d33ac50b6600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | ucl-psg-ata-2025-09-17 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-09-17? | 76,543,628 | 76,543,628 |
6465f9a8ed4c61d5b1a2e713187c415de9321bac | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x235c253481759a99f4014f22119a4dee74ca1ab86007e21c3bea16d5a4b8a500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | dutch-parliamentary-election-pvv-seats | Will PVV win 26 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 76,557,974 | 76,557,974 |
de0e20206ac649412845b048a41567f1530adf3d | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0xfb6046feb970250f173409cae1e367b632f416d5bc18d814aca7daca89f74700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-september-19 | Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on September 19? | 76,568,102 | 76,568,107 |
c794b1bebfec7f5993290af1f5c1f35c290aae75 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x278b2143173b5ace0749e2d8ae6a9af598b9cb3c95b0ac42b36ad001b5831000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | september-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in September? | 76,568,461 | 76,568,474 |
a9533322290ffe4b11d9e0f0c14fb745314a3595 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0xb1106a21c1707f9087e1498e08f5bc3b7a5d85309abe023f82542b9ad2ae4d00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | fed-decisions-in-2025 | Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025? | 76,569,093 | 76,569,093 |
9198ad9c13b9238f9c42ae5e99875c31ae984422 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x41f1baab73301a58d0b4b3dea081fce0a25acd90d26165307500614bdac36f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | sud-ind1-onc-2025-09-17 | Will Independiente del Valle win on 2025-09-17? | 76,579,163 | 76,592,833 |
15f2b26eec3ad8d645daa414078c0c7d07b6c642 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0xe2b446c54cb3d3a448da707a7cba9ac5a5f6dbc1cc2d46e44b9a89e627afe400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | mex-gua-tig-2025-09-17 | Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-09-17? | 76,587,001 | 76,587,001 |
2cdda572a5690f1a79bb5d1f5be3352cc2565b5e | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x46d2f696962e44e470671adc06eea5a1dc11ee2f02743ab7a97d6c4d51e23200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | tur-goz-bes-2025-09-19 | Will Göztepe SK win on 2025-09-19? | 76,651,371 | 76,651,371 |
30fe28092229538d4b3dd6271d815ebfad107d8b | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x7086845f9aab81f9b787d57730765809123ac1380167852145305b830adec600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | ere-spa-twe-2025-09-19 | Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2025-09-19? | 76,651,968 | 76,651,968 |
a3b5654e63b0aab3e06a94369687e9af7ebb9be7 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x9e073ba8761712006859376a601eedf01bb14a85e97edb6e57bf3578c6a90e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | bun-stu-pau-2025-09-19 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-19? | 76,652,209 | 76,652,209 |
d0be91e66db6bafcfde951cc49a2a1fdfc8964e1 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x923251f967cbadf85e82bf5d9eaf524c704c63e286247fc458e6b2f964f66c00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | sea-lec-cag-2025-09-19 | Will Lecce win on 2025-09-19? | 76,652,487 | 76,652,487 |
a3bc7f9a8e7dcc2622362787886f1f9cf4b55243 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x9ef1a77e06587e1a5aae9d4d76ac1d9e790298d847c5ea50dacacb60be44c7f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | lib-riv-pal-2025-09-17 | Will CA River Plate win on 2025-09-17? | 76,694,498 | 78,768,986 |
867ae9398fa4d84cdb9e6d855d857cd7d0214fcb | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x766b7c1afe1eff58aa27fa3979e8397bc0955ec3b22f330222a62b839fb6f115 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | sud-lan-flu-2025-09-16 | Will CA Lanús vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? | 76,694,771 | 78,768,951 |
6d86f9dd3326cdb7ac531eaa04adacfaa493fbcc | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x48cf2f5dac48b5aba7094f48e88b06349eb32ff693b80e720c4227b9a452cacb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | bun-stu-pau-2025-09-19 | Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-09-19? | 76,694,930 | 76,694,930 |
8d15cd43413ff0629cf20dfc051921b7989ac638 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0xd17b6435b7742ac0e437489f4c6d43e84714aa92863085e0550e21e604383b00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | f1-drivers-champion | Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | 76,719,693 | 76,720,240 |
23f3c93a8b77034743ceb68af59f4f211fa7cdbe | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x7ececd30ae105590c0076c8197e9255a0095f7c3aa2e07fd8bd02fd50dc68400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-october | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | 76,764,671 | 77,160,015 |
9847bfe7e430533b76f2bd183c59c7997d147c7f | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x55184a55256b50edf9c03ca033b4bd62515ef057e099f889eb17c395c6a01300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | college-football-champion-winning-conference | Will the 2025-26 College Football Champion come from the ACC? | 76,773,306 | 76,773,306 |
7b56b6b223d0bcf3725174c14ac76b737a60d9f4 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0xcd778cf07b7b5d7eceb2cbbc5a41706d0e970415a269848d127ebfd5668f5a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap | Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day? | 76,794,671 | 76,797,216 |
5e98bef0dad9ba3009adbadb90bcc14f545c5262 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x9f94a64ef41e6dac629e0f9bad34bc02ba241d3119c697e535f86c724f514800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-393 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? | 76,849,321 | 76,849,321 |
f54310e35460d4627ca0764d4e559a5f96b7cef8 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x8d2a5b248a3ba9f714c395ed0833b2270b3cbfd57f6aa0e2a02895f1b5cbc500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | carabao-tot-don-2025-09-24 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-24? | 76,854,120 | 76,854,127 |
9d3dff6fdd8e512365bee0c5183b4f88796dd29a | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x7971728ccf4866d610621f7b8af18b78c1649e6f2c28ce2073d54af61be42600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series? | 76,862,158 | 76,932,474 |
837addf5154d97e058239dd61821f2cf4208944b | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0xd4bd7399602b6ef83f0b501fe0ac6f3e8329be9e536ae24ee854d9865d0daa00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106,000 on September 27? | 76,932,842 | 76,932,842 |
9374d479457394392f2e2ce89a5bacc05997db43 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x3770153576430dc3d9c8b33226d097b9e7920a9e86a10c8072b23eafb290dd14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | lal-gir-esp-2025-09-26 | Will Espanyol win on 2025-09-26? | 76,967,405 | 76,967,405 |
2cc67cea187eca1558fbd43f29de4a2511d760e3 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x31cb9ac1531eeb6d17e6fa34d7fc695b08710e00a51a1c3157f3851c40537100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | the-strangers-chapter-2-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "The Strangers: Chapter 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 4.25m? | 77,008,889 | 77,008,889 |
244e8f31c4d0cc7c48201cea6c7c9e2c3374798f | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x88857ba36ec360abf8216ed9c43ca8d9b7a39791163d14c3471a9e32d0cd24ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | epl-not-sun-2025-09-27 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-09-27? | 77,010,745 | 77,010,745 |
33a94fa543c4088a7e0c3fb6e2b29b850f94d002 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x806db4ef536678fab5390d642d965e6b446dd2d646cfa94f8218f2e900a32b6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division? | Event: al-west-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US GDP growth in... | no | 1 | epl-che-bri-2025-09-27 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-27? | 77,010,762 | 77,010,762 |
52ce8c6a754e65b6b166ed424508e1aec54a53d3 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0xaeb18fc7edd3275956f14316284b6f28312e6bfedadeae48330aa58e5593900d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US GDP growth in 2025 be less than 0.5%? | Event: gdp-growth-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rates b... | yes | 1 | lal-vil-bil-2025-09-27 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-27? | 77,010,807 | 77,010,807 |
584313dc589e9dcef241eae3faa2668dd476fe40 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x205c911dd5625db0ad1bb97eeb76665dfc432812135d40f6617aa45768ac1318 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US GDP growth in 2025 be less than 0.5%? | Event: gdp-growth-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Lanús win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | bun-moe-ein-2025-09-27 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-27? | 77,010,876 | 77,010,876 |
50c64014ccfc46c8de671b83d1eddde66276e499 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x289dc66d9938b32cb340a630d13de0a91e3e04e0dc62a219a26a16e6f9cc2600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Lanús win on 2025-09-16? | Event: sud-lan-flu-2025-09-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 202... | no | 1 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 77,014,176 | 77,014,176 |
6f83776bcc8f023f0b2a8a84850d29c28c3ad69f | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x500338f5f95306e3043849d59fbcfadb0612c04ce9906e0bb878748eef0bcf2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Lanús win on 2025-09-16? | Event: sud-lan-flu-2025-09-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-psg-ata-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PVV win 26 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen... | no | 1 | fl1-ogc-pfc-2025-09-28 | Will OGC Nice win on 2025-09-28? | 77,015,798 | 78,769,031 |
9473406cae61e8c907c5801a4dfe85236c6495da | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0xd3d6a8638c0db436a552b63c7c9525ff9bb4eadcff31f916f965f4750ec16f94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-psg-ata-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PVV win 26 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: dutch-parliamentary-election-pvv-seats | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 1 | epl-ast-ful-2025-09-28 | Will Fulham win on 2025-09-28? | 77,015,820 | 77,015,820 |
40dd64860a80236e88d963a00ac38b6f1de8bf9d | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x4f7d6d4505eda4fb5c1a90d0df58df4c14c1f057bf161747723ee4c2433cb900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PVV win 26 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: dutch-parliamentary-election-pvv-seats | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on September 19? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-359 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? | 77,038,494 | 77,038,494 |
f90e9adcbb231cd4fc39481b4c0aaa1f897ba615 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0xda469b50770caacc6d2e9f74e4b5b81d072e7c8874d2fb2191d8dc51c3b56065 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on September 19? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in September? | Event: september-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Fed ... | yes | 1 | sea-mil-nap-2025-09-28 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-09-28? | 77,039,420 | 77,039,420 |
230c843180fcb049731f089ac1bb126d224212d9 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0xdf1727a2352073f6a418167d4d48a0c04623785500668ff6f3736ce256ddfc00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in September? | Event: september-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025? | Event: fed-decisions-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Independiente del Valle win on 2025-09-17? | E... | no | 1 | mex-ame-san-2025-10-04 | Will CF América win on 2025-10-04? | 77,080,467 | 77,080,479 |
302e37959fd69b81530d53a61120ae987abb12e4 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0xa8ec8c8aa673637945634915179097af22dde1a0f39cfe85463ca5b87f216e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025? | Event: fed-decisions-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Independiente del Valle win on 2025-09-17? | Event: sud-ind1-onc-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-09-17? | Event: mex-gua-tig... | no | 1 | new-jersey-governor-election-margin-of-victory | Will Mikie Sherrill win by less than 3%? | 77,119,262 | 77,119,262 |
1b9bc5d4936966a6b0edfe8b6f082282f1296603 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0xbc9258773e283878e98647385aca6a105b54d91c8a57fac450a83f8136c9c600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Independiente del Valle win on 2025-09-17? | Event: sud-ind1-onc-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-09-17? | Event: mex-gua-tig-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Göztepe SK win on 2025-09-19? | Event: tur-goz-b... | no | 1 | how-far-will-the-philadelphia-phillies-go-in-the-2025-mlb-postseason | Will the Philadelphia Phillies be eliminated in the Division Series? | 77,178,444 | 77,178,486 |
c61116f1c7c3e2666c58eb68af7e8e62772a5a86 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x966a3221e05d8d0579854c4952085331da2a42989dee0fa033d24cada9dfca00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-09-17? | Event: mex-gua-tig-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Göztepe SK win on 2025-09-19? | Event: tur-goz-bes-2025-09-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2025-09-19? | Event: ere-spa-twe-2025-... | no | 1 | brazil-presidential-election | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 77,220,053 | 77,220,053 |
2440c30adc033c27f13b471d7154dfa4574af60d | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0xec92a94fa8cf2fedfcab4a5f80788cd0ab058e62bb5bd92be45c6454d09ccd00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Göztepe SK win on 2025-09-19? | Event: tur-goz-bes-2025-09-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2025-09-19? | Event: ere-spa-twe-2025-09-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-19? | Event: bun-stu-pau-2025-0... | no | 1 | stripe-ipo-closing-market-cap | Will Stripe’s market cap be less than $80B at market close on IPO day? | 77,247,790 | 77,247,790 |
b6f5e99ce616551f7efb5907b72dfc1fd90b295f | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0x9138fbd1691f8fded681b17787a5e109dc0280b3fedd82bf9b936b45c0ec5b59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2025-09-19? | Event: ere-spa-twe-2025-09-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-19? | Event: bun-stu-pau-2025-09-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lecce win on 2025-09-19? | Event: sea-lec-cag-2025-09-19 ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-5 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on October 5? | 77,462,153 | 77,462,153 |
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