sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
d42a66bb44909215a243ab021280496d07a2f397 | 0x38e145572ada0b7958b119b810209dceeb716f6d | 0xafb862c5ef0092ff6646f5e779ee13b128681fa2f2924cdb069779cbbf23c029 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-19? | Event: bun-stu-pau-2025-09-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lecce win on 2025-09-19? | Event: sea-lec-cag-2025-09-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA River Plate win on 2025-09-17? | Event: lib-riv-pal-2025-09-17 | ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-5 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on October 5? | 77,462,170 | 77,462,170 |
365957c2d165819cd5ecf0a07fd57ce9f88c0f4f | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x660de2764f90f2b52df71a65334895371c34782e189ad877653db3123f27cd2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis?
Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | 68,537,534 | 68,537,534 |
42802dfc1ce29c2929551b4125bc99185c951e0a | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xa923b3be1f016e68ac557202dc40653937a1afeb94b98f5b382f1c1efcdf73f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio?
Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ...... | yes | 1 | serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | 68,585,580 | 68,585,580 |
254824584843ff399b4f54742dc1e3c3b26386f7 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xa60691341da78992d359a056e980994d290bf5964c2bac4d076c1cbbd5b871ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05?
Event: u... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-liv-2025-03-05 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | 68,705,124 | 68,705,124 |
b19d23b0a1f1744185639c0623a6922c0b27aecc | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xf9501e10440ed6a34aa24bb43fec6a91188f618207682c6c81a67d5fa9fe3479 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | uel-rso-mun-2025-03-06 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-06? | 68,788,122 | 68,788,122 |
0510c58efbeb5b25be0b4082464cc76d0e066506 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xcaba2507c8ce55330e8069c0f7631e56909ef5c9ac06a3e561ab615115c992d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | 68,807,032 | 68,807,032 |
b1f82b88c3e1878f114498b84dfea4facf2b5ad9 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x7f98e7ddc865d076a59c84413077bc0d4c7cbe4a9a05db8306ab12d7577e787e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-ful-2025-03-08 | Will Fulham win on 2025-03-08? | 68,812,353 | 68,812,353 |
6d3baa4cb5ad57c7d3e104c47bc0965c31198a54 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x87ef660e2a32e65d5544e8db65e2743c33e6ba3ca5a92dcea228387e9e605792 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-eve-2025-03-08 | Will Everton win on 2025-03-08? | 68,829,005 | 68,829,005 |
12b7297ebb38a5f82e2366c08208c8d2f8f9fce8 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xaa06e23957d6d80ec0417f6fa48d0ce0f5c504ef6347be611ada1b0e9f51c489 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-ars-2025-03-09 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-09? | 68,889,997 | 68,889,997 |
bda6ca1a063483284d0d0ce39b61ff1fab2790ba | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xabaeac8799d12447add1a704fa408f35bd6c52ab195d60235eedf522ff5463e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-new-2025-03-10 | Will West Ham win on 2025-03-10? | 68,919,749 | 68,919,749 |
2280fc8064714d953b2712d53925b54bda5949b9 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x16108e9c2faf5a98b1acc084708aea73926268475d7fbd6b4f9ad4e29a21a46f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | ucl-liv-psg-2025-03-11 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-11? | 68,946,567 | 68,946,567 |
6879095a192de685f85c6d5d10a553c242a5f980 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x6ed569040b5bee9c56f5813fe04594024017e5fe427b032c3334ebf6d9fa8135 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | ucl-bar-ben-2025-03-11 | Will Benfica win on 2025-03-11? | 68,946,567 | 68,946,567 |
4b62ccf62e60d068df3ffe8d9fb2d39ad4b4b12d | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x5725fa7eb459352b0af04801928f4109c3e4fc36f255995accfa30f50fc0f093 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | ucl-ars-psv-2025-03-12 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-12? | 69,006,567 | 69,006,567 |
3f0989c947d0370c764cea7986896646ea24eaf6 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x2565d91a1e958305581b30f2f3c9b9e1c84db0ce3f7be235a64135fb557c3a1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | uel-ath-rom-2025-03-13 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-03-13? | 69,032,917 | 69,032,917 |
1720263ad73a4d08f513633bb3df00e49e93ecc7 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x842106b99ca82d093b8bc64c18fffa59c39736f6bf03d74371f7f87d36b6ef88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | uel-mun-rso-2025-03-13 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-13? | 69,032,917 | 69,032,917 |
a6d24115529386bc3fa5d3c764d83c11e06adabb | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x29061312b495a5c4bbc5c8905d4e27b5252942a9226faadd607dea2a45ad37f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-wes-2025-03-15 | Will West Ham win on 2025-03-15? | 69,120,363 | 69,120,363 |
31c86d087ca298dc3b5cfbeaa219cdbeab9ff272 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x2e2881cb38535533865a47328b5d5b35eadec196381990b94ef8e9331b5176f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | 69,956,377 | 69,956,377 |
92b27176f5ef73d2f264720d72eece81d3af141a | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x7929f0c11882ee9b2f3c81acc1fbda3e43e68564971a07a4cbf6742ee1b97229 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Will Crystal Palace vs. Brighton end in a draw? | 69,956,377 | 69,956,377 |
052e9e9ede905ac33cdaba93291856a88668d00b | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xc11321a3d5eb623985dd742dc0e285405da7868b8e13c5c794e6032c297a7012 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-wol-2025-04-05 | Will Wolves win on 2025-04-05? | 69,956,377 | 69,956,377 |
e58e101944710aa812d0adccee4a5b1d015871f2 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x58470865b65bd361cca1a51118646879034cafcf799bcb7c4efcbb751200b203 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-sou-2025-04-06 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-04-06? | 70,007,046 | 70,007,046 |
5024e5c9a1af39206791fdd70aa544cfa90f8e73 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xa58a59e6ca3fe27c2a509594c9864bf56f938718ff593f1e49bb819c809379d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-liv-2025-04-06 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-06? | 70,007,046 | 70,007,046 |
426d01f1244c3665ce1e59892c219e0a941dae79 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xdd4e27a1e6f13aafa2066a11d1a855e9743791a45164fb31c30fa94454f19536 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-mac-2025-04-06 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-06? | 70,007,046 | 70,007,046 |
1de766415bbf96d1b7330264a25e6d7d222b5b7c | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xf82859ba2b20db9b5dc55cbd61b01cee5564aef602a88a35cd708d5e8ad9af6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-che-2025-04-06 | Will Brentford win on 2025-04-06? | 70,007,046 | 70,007,046 |
e243c57ae260c18e69abb05f7f76d0f7238657ff | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x1b8052d406812bfcc9db1f37e1fca9e7e8972702c7836964c836f3e5ae620eac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | ucl-ars-rma-2025-04-08 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-08? | 70,074,939 | 70,074,939 |
fae8d6afe5951889e86763ce46dc107bed5fd259 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x300dfa307a256c358e1ff288f22315f008539539387998a4eee1bfe94f427d28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | ucl-bay-int-2025-04-08 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-04-08? | 70,074,939 | 70,074,939 |
fe696bcac4402c3072d2103f8cfcdd2b6c2464ad | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x85d1cc7775688c2cb87b07f89c2302c867ef77255ea4e65e7589194b95f0c22e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-ast-2025-04-09 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-09? | 70,115,602 | 70,115,602 |
76f1566e94dba2c974adf70aad2d51d710a551d6 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xad2af583ca6eebe719cfa17ef8cd96d8fc2af2f803497cdae85435a3e6fc70da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | 70,115,602 | 70,115,602 |
35d4e68dfdffd332a214496f76dff1a2276346a1 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x4199011f0c6b66d39f74826c0f466beb1381b1128716b566ea5df9b9aa3a7409 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | uel-lyo-mun-2025-04-10 | Will Lyon win on 2025-04-10? | 70,156,678 | 70,156,678 |
c9aecdd0b8f443c9db6bfa2fa4eb38d949b81487 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xbb3b626b20d855cb0dada539824d41944f558038b139abce12b6f41f32abc649 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-lei-2025-04-12 | Will Brighton win on 2025-04-12? | 71,113,658 | 71,113,658 |
453e6532b640d91c7864c1882fc17c9d7f294114 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x9973cf61c546fd50d7304c0dd6568faebdd2d6f5231e262ca3762968833421b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | uef-slv-swe-2025-09-05 | Will Sweden win on 2025-09-05? | 76,247,046 | 76,247,046 |
e623a510e14d129c025d3a5be0eef081fb808c00 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x0ed9589a2016d53604f1f791f70551176727ab2bd7b7003a320cfa226acd12e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | lal-val-bil-2025-09-20 | Will Valencia win on 2025-09-20? | 76,710,344 | 76,710,344 |
0e6751b00580a54184717e1ccb1016f566fa6b44 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x0b4040fc7d7861e2bed49b577fe1badae6497ba79a4a4ebf673e8c1940516ce4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid Beat Real Betis? | Event: la-liga-real-betis-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-... | yes | 1 | ucl-ata-bru-2025-09-30 | Will Club Brugge win on 2025-09-30? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
53a5dc2c2e109d0165264ea30632aefd689669bb | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x0c022d12c5911fba7e9fb40329840ac4f2979bc0e5363bd9e61576f73d4e4fc2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan beat Lazio? | Event: serie-a-ac-milan-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-2025-03-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-06? | Event: uel-rso-mun-202... | yes | 1 | fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-croatia-vs-czechia | Will Czechia beat Croatia? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
948be1af4610895e7fcf24c26efc12934eea7689 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x12fd10dadea1418cebb470f5c3e594dbc6ce73a24fd9fe47fbc262ba5263a17b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-2025-03-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-06? | Event: uel-rso-mun-2025-03-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-bre-2025-09-20 | Will Brentford win on 2025-09-20? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
88d9caa378fdbf6aa5328e25295c9a157c438223 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x3770153576430dc3d9c8b33226d097b9e7920a9e86a10c8072b23eafb290dd14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-06? | Event: uel-rso-mun-2025-03-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-bri-ful-2025-... | yes | 1 | lal-gir-esp-2025-09-26 | Will Espanyol win on 2025-09-26? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
829f059ff106cb42becf2aa65c391829e1859031 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x3845383c34dbd138a78234684ada35bd075a39a2a7360d9e426bbf463ef4dd29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-bri-ful-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-03-08 | Ch... | yes | 1 | uef-bul-tur-2025-10-11 | Will Bulgaria win on 2025-10-11? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
a79f46f165bdf30ad796343cfafbf4754afc2915 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x38a4d5973052d686f7ee08a21949f6955730314707da192af5028684a47618de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-bri-ful-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-03-09 | ... | yes | 1 | mex-tol-maz-2025-09-27 | Will Mazatlán FC win on 2025-09-27? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
c84744079711c9be4266cd36fd80b330917853c9 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x488676e22d2bb4caa7b2a909d9cdcd6a3bda7af1e92440ea939c5b8f1e5af0e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-03-10? | Event: epl-wes-new-2025-03-10 ... | yes | 1 | epl-che-liv-2025-10-04 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-04? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
e039c30cf49562597b5ba725f74776771f79f6ea | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x624b7f6735f380fae2a05482167c101dc675f080120398cdfa8a9996d8a804c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-03-10? | Event: epl-wes-new-2025-03-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-11? | Event: ucl-liv-psg-2025-03-1... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-mun-2025-09-14 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-14? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
397ad3e3cfc926355902610ee74c689e58931613 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x77102767582cfd00544895fdac9d0187e798e4b134335b34f92d3d406367d479 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-03-10? | Event: epl-wes-new-2025-03-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-11? | Event: ucl-liv-psg-2025-03-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Benfica win on 2025-03-11? | Event: ucl-bar-ben-2025-03-11 | Choice... | yes | 1 | por-ben-gil-2025-09-26 | Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2025-09-26? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
0a3e7381f5064f02634aac7eeb95d57bf3e1be75 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x84762466eb6aba19b7e08569410c5b3e25d6411959f618c707f2bce98098cc6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-11? | Event: ucl-liv-psg-2025-03-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Benfica win on 2025-03-11? | Event: ucl-bar-ben-2025-03-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-ars-psv-2025-03-12 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | uef-aze-ukr-2025-09-09 | Will Ukraine win on 2025-09-09? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
d18bcb69f782e9f4ff311a0ec887b5ddb72921af | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x8b5ea1a6c7fd81f7268efd5f7d29faae1c389b7a606f0ac4a9d2259d74aa1738 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Benfica win on 2025-03-11? | Event: ucl-bar-ben-2025-03-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-ars-psv-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-03-13? | Event: uel-ath-rom-2025-03-13 | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | lal-mad-rea-2025-09-27 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-27? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
2bf1d25290c7517cab557b846130c688600dc442 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x937f1fcdae9aa3467de19aee7d8d1fab911b7f4199492eb30667eb63ff193bb0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-ars-psv-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-03-13? | Event: uel-ath-rom-2025-03-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-13? | Event: uel-mun-rso-2025-03-13 |... | yes | 1 | sea-udi-mil-2025-09-20 | Will Udinese win on 2025-09-20? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
bdba06386d343401a9cc901c8c922e473b63c402 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x94c5fbda58520eb9457e67fe4ac2877faebb6f1a31849033f1e34a9b9093b68b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-03-13? | Event: uel-ath-rom-2025-03-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-13? | Event: uel-mun-rso-2025-03-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-eve-wes-2025-03-15 ... | yes | 1 | uef-nor-isr-2025-10-11 | Will Israel win on 2025-10-11? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
572d4505506664f95211e2bf418ded9173aa023c | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0x9c085ff28e4efc81b061dbaea5d6afe28d46dbce19034f7bb97bdd147a920193 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-13? | Event: uel-mun-rso-2025-03-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-eve-wes-2025-03-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 ... | yes | 1 | lal-sev-bar-2025-10-05 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-05? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
fb81ab1d1c6f06f48f67b921678ccf5409dcfe45 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xa02107eb720f497089c2308778f17479e43b39a9271c88b18bc78a223b8dc669 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-eve-wes-2025-03-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Brighton end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-... | yes | 1 | uef-hun-arm-2025-10-11 | Will Armenia win on 2025-10-11? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
7234c7525a576c6afc548684d0c5b997804e83b6 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xa3461d7d52f0c098283642affde8233f6fbaa0b3259fc410fb64201333e69e57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Brighton end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-ips-wol-2025-04... | yes | 1 | uef-ukr-aze-2025-10-13 | Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-10-13? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
f6a85321a56502e5e897ba53bb805fffddb96594 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xacc45b780a7d4859d28d0f1b33eedea94f8fcbb915c6dc02885088c4fb156bc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Brighton end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-ips-wol-2025-04-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-04-06? | Event: epl-tot-sou-2025-... | yes | 1 | uef-aze-ukr-2025-09-09 | Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-09-09? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
b1bb9199be7285cc3fdeeafb1d1bd9e7f0872bad | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xafcb290d0c1866372d6519db936b6fd76db3b6eb71fd0fc9cb6a6531dd0cee07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-ips-wol-2025-04-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-04-06? | Event: epl-tot-sou-2025-04-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-06? | Event: epl-ful-liv-2025-04-06 | Choice... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-che-2025-09-13 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-13? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
146933578534e7d7090b157dcc21e226aeb3c3f7 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xb21a7ab2d80daff88b23d3bd745d2b6c09417bc2c37b6b3c4a34bbf90ad95917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-04-06? | Event: epl-tot-sou-2025-04-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-06? | Event: epl-ful-liv-2025-04-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-06? | Event: epl-mun-mac-2025-04-... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Will Germany beat France? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
3ac4ac372ec58b6ff039245b38fadfb2bbb0bfb3 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xbf870b3e94201dc40752203336e8cc9894dda68e53f39cefed2c01e971fc2f75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-06? | Event: epl-ful-liv-2025-04-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-06? | Event: epl-mun-mac-2025-04-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-04-06? | Event: epl-bre-che-2025-04-... | yes | 1 | epl-lee-bou-2025-09-27 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-09-27? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
7ac0fd760a5607a95b3725f9d555fb61d0c2864a | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xd3d6a8638c0db436a552b63c7c9525ff9bb4eadcff31f916f965f4750ec16f94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-06? | Event: epl-mun-mac-2025-04-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-04-06? | Event: epl-bre-che-2025-04-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-08? | Event: ucl-ars-rma-2025-0... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-ful-2025-09-28 | Will Fulham win on 2025-09-28? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
993fa0e18985e31e04b3e1b0351f39012e27c91e | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xd7c35d3259121f544f2b8f1afc83fca2b0d8ed4d7183428c879aed8c13e5d4fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-04-06? | Event: epl-bre-che-2025-04-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-08? | Event: ucl-ars-rma-2025-04-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-04-08? | Event: ucl-bay-int-2025-04-08... | yes | 1 | lal-rso-ray-2025-10-05 | Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-10-05? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
1dac73f3267df33a0aa2cd1ed6c4fc293582c5b8 | 0x395cf5e128a4d7e0da09bcee26ff10cfe4a24415 | 0xd84038d257ee2be579e71661823d8f4978e4f54cb566fe31fd4ee5a353052787 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-08? | Event: ucl-ars-rma-2025-04-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-04-08? | Event: ucl-bay-int-2025-04-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-psg-ast-2025-04-... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-21? | 77,857,706 | 77,857,706 |
452a367b55c9f1ba0f468e345262a1741e2af32b | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xedefb52c75682de8dba1edf102a5e359ce6add3887067d70d9105875da6d389e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | 75,793,686 | 75,793,686 |
0aded1c6c7ff6e927eed44237a657b915f9a5271 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x85db382dc33128db398160a4901f649b10db359d83565b54f419adab8aac4d64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Out... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | 75,794,866 | 75,794,866 |
005e171e578739bf1d1499e5c55d8b5646d5e50d | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x97bd52b392e77d6c0bed727dda680f546225a6ef3d901a99e3b4cbad583be954 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Ethereum Up or Down ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | 75,795,218 | 75,795,218 |
3a75a057c0c3917b2d096da323f11e1e9f899fca | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xb235b249808f1ed7991d51b453d7d65c8796229217f327f59562de0e9c67306f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-29-6am-et | Solana Up or Down - August 29, 6AM ET | 75,797,504 | 75,797,504 |
5b7370d5ddd42a0081cf6490c1a5e1a706781070 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x433ed983ada9f31c57433661258dba62fe9e87929dc3076bd01236338ed2b011 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-8am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 8AM ET | 75,800,429 | 76,112,299 |
8a61de67f3bfd617104cba5f1d0f074f99703c9c | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x2b74bcd0c8558ff22033e4b24fefd47a9db942cf92af5154d0ce798a15a02811 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0.000455 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 9AM ET | 75,801,580 | 75,801,580 |
365315c80b0f70c5d72274023c63ff8ecb178f46 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x0854b0ecd442a222aac680153355852835709268b2e57f07aa4cc840564338b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | 75,803,564 | 75,803,564 |
fcfa1105f592b82ab4dbf0991dcdf465d00f3b74 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xcb6d3c04f2caede5200127d6d4c202e9a93688a7a972c61e7927d561b195e579 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0.000105 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | 75,803,564 | 75,803,564 |
964ed12edfd3de88a7122f9f7010893ece2b799e | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xf5e6192d08381bba6411ba4bd9b97c6cb89fba623d12b2b9fb72d41342af556a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | up | 0.00005 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 11AM ET | 75,805,113 | 75,805,113 |
ffd056d992cb7a1bfe757a6fb5fd2f3e680d4345 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x6d4fa390f52fc511a49649fe6359eff06e232216c4551af97b1dfe592268c6e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 12PM ET | 75,806,173 | 75,806,448 |
a7b3f9c7fe67a59630d63e10d81596009e34cd0c | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x73bf12b9af385572b7e606c472cee74e4858b3f221a903459f5f27e97ca34e6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | up | 0.000122 | solana-up-or-down-august-29-12pm-et | Solana Up or Down - August 29, 12PM ET | 75,806,752 | 75,806,802 |
a7d0c3e6ca2935d5fde0e8875466c2841334b9bf | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x7f2810aba78e6d674ca6d12eb0da5ef422be12e0ed6e3e0fc13e1d2c29e68139 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 1PM ET | 75,808,009 | 75,808,839 |
a1b838126fe6e8f40c2722874a4622d195abaa4e | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x19376f4509afc5486cd1c146fbf42fc288ff49f6355a23e83750e13115678730 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0.000042 | solana-up-or-down-august-29-1pm-et | Solana Up or Down - August 29, 1PM ET | 75,808,263 | 75,808,627 |
892cd1f7ad1fd047118508ab5d2d6e943584a2d8 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x7b558016e168906f112b29955f75c00b5d953b189509bd7d4b5034bac916bc23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-29-1pm-et | XRP Up or Down - August 29, 1PM ET | 75,808,563 | 75,808,563 |
ba07f8c961e4fc04a6f5d3c8fa1c86072d3055d8 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xf0de565d2a7f6a483b3262c00accf3c392a99023244c3244e8d516373d24566a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-29-2pm-et | XRP Up or Down - August 29, 2PM ET | 75,809,862 | 75,810,386 |
eb5aa205dddd6f63e6db96022621aa7a75124f8b | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x7f58733f63f4b7541f6d22ea92ef81a493f6de575df57a149c0d68d43211598f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-29-2pm-et | Solana Up or Down - August 29, 2PM ET | 75,810,416 | 75,810,588 |
39c5d7e7ca4a66d558eb897e209b9ebc4a1e3569 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x47bff56e6aa7f5f967f00074fcaa968685c4e31145bc6bd9492b6187b4d21270 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-29-3pm-et | XRP Up or Down - August 29, 3PM ET | 75,811,663 | 75,811,663 |
853b0832993e8f200fdc9814136af0c693baf5ad | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x7e5146e9770d8110fcdf9ec674099ecc906218ebdac892e48236be8902df1398 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-3pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 3PM ET | 75,811,777 | 75,811,777 |
ca6a140bfee665b7a050e00e8330c401e43675ce | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xf745525cae0dded486482ddb89e2e774343d319576240a40ff56e43e217e7b7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-29-3pm-et | Solana Up or Down - August 29, 3PM ET | 75,811,870 | 75,811,870 |
05dd2e6d795526bf3f14dc296ecf614068acfcf9 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xf8b8a242e061c8c972a303a7169b3a13e4cdc23e87c93aadabc48aa052168031 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 3PM ET | 75,811,874 | 75,811,874 |
e6504af3baf4c013d53d3a7287cf0017a6e922d7 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x4284cc47e4fbdad18c2360fa14b8be0ae1dba3111f554795d3c7a483ee7b38f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | up | 0.000024 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-10pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 10PM ET | 75,822,890 | 75,823,264 |
7f44858ea3aa24c12854eb5382eed2a32b85a46f | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xb3d03d008131fb809ebe7bdf9f5ac6d34f02da56f1c4196416e88ada66e13f96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-29-10pm-et | Solana Up or Down - August 29, 10PM ET | 75,823,066 | 75,823,292 |
ae707e9652f8a61927729e2e74af11fcb24d91a1 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x1c88ed9ebb9e8df617d73538274baa36bd0100a65c72b411a2948e7ec9d784d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10PM ET | 75,823,317 | 75,838,839 |
cb3c89effa88e3ab11dfd970c97771f659438b88 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x7bdbe4d25a1085599ab4f68c2a898db1bd6a3e1a498ab8d65d1b2075a4143aec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | up | 0.00005 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 11AM ET | 75,885,742 | 75,885,957 |
7435753a75b69be531e6266a1c6ab52494b732d3 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x1ae8d3e64506820febdfedd135d635b962625cca0d93290ee585654339804fcf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-31-11am-et | Solana Up or Down - August 31, 11AM ET | 75,885,818 | 76,112,299 |
d7d0c67e0adbc0a944cdbdca3875836bf8127252 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xc87dddd92e4077ac275c2b7a025e44e241056eead01a74e245d84eecf6de02d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-11am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 11AM ET | 75,886,014 | 76,112,299 |
fe6fa65091ed0fb0c53ca9d85499de5accd5a4df | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x0ce86b5739a031fbeaa32ec33e708f0a7435399b395e12dfdf2222dfc3a05da8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 12PM ET | 75,886,532 | 76,112,299 |
4f1c672d759d706931f612e98cf1c16412b27dec | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x773d56c09600ca983c777e8f49688ae99fdc2e2e7c352eaab7749390daea8486 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-12pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 12PM ET | 75,887,043 | 75,887,246 |
622a2d5b3e1b3016bee3194ba8fc0bd0888cc186 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xa82e7315b8ad6cc7b3ed2b38d231f32f4afdb801c0b80eb4124abbec2b1d39aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-31-12pm-et | Solana Up or Down - August 31, 12PM ET | 75,887,053 | 76,112,299 |
6674b2900e5629e7c5e8e48ea0e8ca56fb0d9fa2 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x46e9ff7c47e4e6d56048a9104b479323f31c9e192040e9c5048e53ecf7c6c9cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-31-12pm-et | XRP Up or Down - August 31, 12PM ET | 75,887,081 | 75,887,081 |
f45e8b315b51a279251db809550dcd0c003c739a | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x2f48658984d25a7ff36c6d36b72b9a7c5bac745f5c504355d72451ca34572557 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 9PM ET | 75,903,482 | 75,903,482 |
60525369319ab10633d4edd1e675890e8bb7f26a | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x5602797fac364c93d29e21ae64fb0652e2aa948ce9762cf6d3b1e54611b9e951 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-9pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 9PM ET | 75,903,487 | 76,112,299 |
99a3aec4a461f4834aca1f267b5ca54eb3635b97 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x60417af8864feb8ccaeffb8b14e20090bacb0fb67f0d328bdf433a8a25ad80a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 29, 6AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-29-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-31-9pm-et | Solana Up or Down - August 31, 9PM ET | 75,903,491 | 75,903,491 |
b85f1f9e5005bebe0baaabe47ab6ed9f80d26e46 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x191520082e294759eb19f5db97168f73bd112bf6b55560011aa962700ceab95b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 29, 6AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-29-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 9... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-31-9pm-et | XRP Up or Down - August 31, 9PM ET | 75,903,495 | 75,903,495 |
0ffe2e7f728492430a2d62f64a7134fbcc684061 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xb1c0b287bd1c4af08ba332e5b351254e6302cb2e0804eed6bdbeea5ff3648fe4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0004548067551508916
3. Question: Ethereum Up o... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-1-4am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 1, 4AM ET | 75,914,503 | 75,915,221 |
b71922ea318bf340daeba9d088bb82840c5bf8ce | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x370b19a5dfe1c3637bb69dbcc968bed18af2e155919ba9c1111ac19c47e2dbdf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0004548067551508916
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up ... | up | 0.000038 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-1-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4AM ET | 75,914,924 | 75,915,114 |
34ad71d9dc5e9f7b8a44a63b9bf2f1a17bfa961e | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xe1ce14f4f8568e13b2091a00e891776b9b949a426a950d59b235017baba04efd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00010521392886433524
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-1-4am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 1, 4AM ET | 75,915,176 | 75,915,176 |
f0a85609501cda0d497a35fb262518823c8f18bb | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x764737b29cae8b8c66281675cc5bc4504f0fd5abd59f8556b8504d20fe3939ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00010521392886433524
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.009834305157712e-05
3. Ques... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-1-4am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 4AM ET | 75,915,221 | 75,915,221 |
a5aef3f5e6834233f60bd74f6cd954572bc762b4 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x41dac7850389ac88f535bf16a9b5d14a3568d11bf64c244801bce94b6d283c36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.009834305157712e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 7AM ET | 75,959,769 | 75,960,637 |
ff118ee5b3610b72614f83498377600b5c4d5b91 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x6d0b723f1a834a590923cfdebba8dbb36c553983330211c342fe230b44a2bd0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 29, 12PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00012247249864982162
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-2-7am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 2, 7AM ET | 75,960,307 | 75,960,581 |
e08f174adfcc63c44eb895b195edb240d68bf062 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x195b7dc70e66ccb2709534f03a1654b5cd8e089291acf0cae0926beb812aa144 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 29, 12PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00012247249864982162
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Dow... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-2-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 7AM ET | 75,960,565 | 75,960,565 |
a9e38c82e323678f929d41e50567a5525278c5ff | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x567ed6b17fd71afe3ab924cf2893446c7c29f4548fc2e5f84d75b0af9b671629 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 29, 1PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 4.17725782087356e-05
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - A... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-2-7am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 2, 7AM ET | 75,960,637 | 75,960,637 |
45330426118a3f2e69b18350299058f7e8278380 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x2b6aa390143018c4d51f44a03164969e9422b46417d900679a352ace17dd422b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 29, 1PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 4.17725782087356e-05
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 29, 1PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 29... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | 75,963,185 | 75,963,942 |
092f5e5370a67ee3864b54747c4044dadc904ca8 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xb9357599e96022b118cc188a264542d8f5504ca27e7d3853b9c02893a8954d57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 29, 1PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 29, 2PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-29-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 29, 2PM ET | Event: so... | down | 0.000013 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | 75,963,311 | 75,963,664 |
d4726aeb03a29bce5b3c682345984a2a780bde27 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x671e778be32310c5becc693c673a90914da9d8d4fc1ae811afc02e1cbad8b6c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 29, 2PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-29-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 29, 2PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-29-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 29, 3PM ET | Event:... | up | 0.000083 | xrp-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | 75,963,374 | 75,963,374 |
b967fd9f55cc2346e20b85d10734c9cb3cb3c6dc | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x6061195ee56f9474cb1dcbdbddf92f37557db578ee5a3792f5eecd32ee5d27cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 29, 2PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-29-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 29, 3PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-29-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 3PM ET | E... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | 75,963,553 | 75,963,942 |
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