sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
eed02445fbd2005e4d6df259b5587ffc86d77ac6 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x8f49ee6ae8fb3a37cdf037346f697deed4f34bee6ee1c696c898b716a2479001 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 29, 3PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-29-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 3PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 29, 3PM ET |... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 10AM ET | 75,965,946 | 75,965,946 |
b647d80cb0e01ac985b766691f6392a3ab4895f8 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x2f833ea1e8056efda2884e9d18488e06dc71248815d8e04656d8e45b7102a671 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 3PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 29, 3PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-29-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 3... | up | 0.000143 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-2-11am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 11AM ET | 75,967,410 | 75,967,410 |
52ac174a6c645768805152acfe9f0f490a9a91ae | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x480ad412f0e799afa2775ff1c314041bb36386883eff0fb71f831ffa0175b7be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 29, 3PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-29-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 10... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 11AM ET | 75,967,410 | 75,967,410 |
cafbe2b5de93b3d38d6bdaddcc43833e0156d198 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xa8f8e7997a8167b35d8dbae84233cfad0148ae5d7fc494dc3f0361ec7e0f2c15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 2.356419162167894e-05
3. Question: Solana Up or ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-2-11am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 2, 11AM ET | 75,967,410 | 75,967,410 |
e90eecf9280f9e6e764723cfb8d352122dab0731 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xb5fcdaf691edb4b5478cabfcfbecbefeaa7ef51315e5a981012f805ca4625f45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 2.356419162167894e-05
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 29, 10PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-29-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-3-3am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 3, 3AM ET | 75,994,754 | 75,994,754 |
dc40dedfd664ea267658a5a007420ece267e88d1 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x22af87d979fe55e8ba28d3392d80067411760f28b92f54447ae7999e7d00e196 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 29, 10PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-29-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31,... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-3am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 3AM ET | 75,994,765 | 75,994,765 |
11d1d2d58cf89495b3c0584032aab410f380430c | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x6e9dab77fe9cda0b0c798be17c8c4c3bc14bfd35ccae877fb4ae6f9d41384daf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.041920863510202e-05
3. Question: Solana Up or ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-4am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 4AM ET | 75,996,358 | 75,996,358 |
e637a8564f47d0d99969cbc8ad7ccefdcbde3d3e | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x7754b6fc6492368fd8a9e07e21f3cbdf3db817f8be1c8b6f4b5ee1d732a3ead6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.041920863510202e-05
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 31, 11AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-31-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 1PM ET | 76,010,057 | 76,010,209 |
898ba1f55fdf2ee53980494fb0b739af47cfd069 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x9f9c85dbd77d62e808d118bd963f4d690a27e749a2f8c924f87643e3ac8560d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 31, 11AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-31-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3... | up | 0.000009 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-1pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 1PM ET | 76,010,281 | 76,011,527 |
65674d2a6c798e10da0e57228f43c48f3a3955e3 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x5686a2b60202914716bb61bea6757ca8d0ca7dd7e0e7c5730ac6c40f4b599def | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Augus... | up | 0.000049 | xrp-up-or-down-september-3-1pm-et | XRP Up or Down - September 3, 1PM ET | 76,011,515 | 76,011,515 |
6cedd7e176d3dae8a89ed6c43c724d7ee500b75f | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x9c202109b34270bda1760101036a3d110a6d973c1e1d40b2d42e37a166a475f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 12PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - August ... | up | 0.000059 | solana-up-or-down-september-3-1pm-et | Solana Up or Down - September 3, 1PM ET | 76,011,520 | 76,011,520 |
ff3be8f77f0c5d7af20c41cee33e279dac0f4700 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x6f1ea351a895ec133ffd28580033729983a56de3d8478152e3cbb43c4f5895ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 12PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 31, 12PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-31-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 31, 1... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 2PM ET | 76,012,699 | 76,012,699 |
2e40e5f0e0f69acc7a4798f2e11944ac3754c391 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xbe161b472fa136a289ac8eaf4161e339d22fc76ea6dc1a0c01f59e3165d800a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 31, 12PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-31-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 31, 12PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-31-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 9PM ET ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-2pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 2PM ET | 76,013,030 | 76,013,030 |
7fe7a832f3fb0c3dd1eac2bfea9aea53b1092ee5 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x5daaab340abb8de80da846ba37090feaf1076ea1a60fcfc8e7022e9ee968e00a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 31, 12PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-31-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 9PM ET... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 3PM ET | 76,014,848 | 76,112,299 |
8388448c57651ebdad1ced6185f00872650ada48 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xbfe9e88bb38d1aa3a355fbfe2e0b23a0740f627e9e985380f9e3f283d25c3823 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 9PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 31, ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-3pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 3PM ET | 76,014,848 | 76,112,299 |
c0f6bc44ba26810235c1313f42bc57e3549c730a | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xb066aac767923c991d0a3e6a525d79980b1835901ab6784d51ea99f48b1a88ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 9PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 31, 9PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-31-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 31, 9PM E... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-3-3pm-et | Solana Up or Down - September 3, 3PM ET | 76,014,848 | 76,283,674 |
ea85b97746f3dde931bd222507e49fdc16f56a02 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xf5786847f2ec3f8efcacfe5cab3b1127e942cc4ae11ced0569744c52f8d32fdb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 31, 9PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-31-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 31, 9PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-31-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 1, 4AM ET | Even... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-3-3pm-et | XRP Up or Down - September 3, 3PM ET | 76,014,848 | 76,283,674 |
a6665d381b8d321cea0c8c330dc340e781dacbc0 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xccd2bb843dd40cca593a947356252244293e2d7ffeba96397a95fa7c3b5f8aa2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 31, 9PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-31-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 1, 4AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-1-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4AM ET | Ev... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-9pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 9PM ET | 76,024,335 | 76,112,299 |
ff54546b4e4ae7e4142e96c3eec762bf7437fcb6 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xaad7a1174f66490be4b0dbd5e8072d5d166f5538cc445c94f6c533d118c08882 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 1, 4AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-1-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-1-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.8143998253896975e-05
3. Question: Solana Up or Dow... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-3-9pm-et | XRP Up or Down - September 3, 9PM ET | 76,024,712 | 76,024,712 |
e5f3d39d98548e9da486652511ab05de46ba04c8 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x58ee7ce24ba8f7910f8a3404f99cda1c3168cb5bd1b2c0428ff53b3b8cd3740e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-1-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.8143998253896975e-05
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 1, 4AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-1-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum U... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 9PM ET | 76,024,816 | 76,024,816 |
cefe878a2b87e7edc6051cc67d42a1e52cf47bc6 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x935b4c4a1b13ca078f4658f7af1a74857b06038968655e4ed2eb10d2e67418dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 1, 4AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-1-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-1-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Sept... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-3-9pm-et | Solana Up or Down - September 3, 9PM ET | 76,024,816 | 76,024,816 |
bd334d5f1890067fc2acbf829096615e9d86979d | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x80373ee152af82f5f1137f4f11549e353050bae41f5569a4c8a22f9660a75aa4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-1-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - Septem... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-3-10pm-et | XRP Up or Down - September 3, 10PM ET | 76,028,140 | 76,028,140 |
389731263557c1deea357bc5e4615126ee6feb90 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x41fd48e74e610454ac3570d85af7173de780307a8809e2f0e76df0132cdab7a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 2, 7AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-2-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 2... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-4-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 5AM ET | 76,037,875 | 76,038,544 |
679318f014c7fc9018f5186205709ed130e5bdb9 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xbae26f93a4a7aa8399e37665879b0780359d145fee45748b9a524163db6e486b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 2, 7AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-2-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-2-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 2... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-4-5am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 4, 5AM ET | 76,037,886 | 76,038,544 |
06d43a6a4391325d75c4590fe2a4c186fa9d4674 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x6e9bc56c83e224c0828217f7d75bfd6d7b082c2c45ac2d7764426a80a0c86929 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-2-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 2, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-2-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Sep... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-4-5am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 4, 5AM ET | 76,037,936 | 76,112,299 |
f0c95b22a5bc38c7a1a9ea1ae64327c47f4f702a | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x2fae4bb57d17550e2d7c0e1315f7371993c650c9fc9eff28d47dd4d976105550 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 2, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-2-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Sept... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-4-5am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 4, 5AM ET | 76,038,306 | 76,038,306 |
4bead60cd5a10da414dc66cff6572d1b429371ea | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x92fcfa3dd7167d9e9c81d87f3949d41ad631d5b7655b6eedcaa13a50feed73f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.3060170565827589e-05
3. Question: XRP ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-4-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 4, 7AM ET | 76,042,028 | 76,042,028 |
1593102d643de06e666ab31610ca518d30647962 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x7053810e4252ab2ebce6438814d51a0cc8b3a16e6b0762d75997a567d3470ace | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.3060170565827589e-05
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 8.33402783565297e-05
3. Question:... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-4-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 8AM ET | 76,042,501 | 76,043,290 |
c8e39535ed0c2071844b604789a4dab0c5322538 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x524846fd62de17e250bcdbe7f83b3e50f2a43beb8232ad1dcd774664a26a2014 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 8.33402783565297e-05
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down -... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-4-8am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 4, 8AM ET | 76,042,720 | 76,042,912 |
9f3fb7c6ea0d79124024a402366efa83d50c27e5 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xbea4973100b07deb22920f22718f6b1a81214bbc7fe1d8da871cf98b6509c4ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Sep... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-4-8am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 4, 8AM ET | 76,042,771 | 76,112,299 |
c745e006dacceb8c17ce020bc492a47f354f9fd7 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x107c1826d51f32e9d6d1fec5374885985c56fbc11ac1bce2f8db9258dd53a235 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-2-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00014290375189775033
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0.000267 | solana-up-or-down-september-4-8am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 4, 8AM ET | 76,042,812 | 76,042,812 |
33e425fff75f940fd914cf279a222ccc4dbe1514 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x6488cc62006d822711f91a494a6203a2dc25e315002fe7de3f62b13f30343b3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-2-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00014290375189775033
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XR... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-5-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 6AM ET | 76,079,742 | 76,079,742 |
79fc6b9de6a60079d7ee316e1dde655ccabf9508 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xd24026cd6c70b3c6e1fe0918d2207c0792502cb21679be81219b1cf025e4ab10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 2, 11AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-2-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 3,... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-5-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 11AM ET | 76,089,010 | 76,089,010 |
dfa1e6858f7549da06849ab7db2e3b49df2e4c63 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x1a3db901be7fba53546ade589631eee3d5702c1b8c92807d059ae580f1807f09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 2, 11AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-2-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 3, 3AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-3-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 3AM ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-6-3am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 6, 3AM ET | 76,116,575 | 76,116,575 |
ede5fabd32ed082137e8ee97039ae95dce412a32 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x3ad1c7a7391b4ba0f96c9a586cd999c44ca63407488220af6e2a5634d0bec6d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 3, 3AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-3-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-6-3am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 3AM ET | 76,116,575 | 76,116,575 |
01be6ef38c8eeb551fdf3a933c8841e79473e0ac | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x5f2d0233429d5630040c16c79c8113c5e37f1c77a5fc7d19b5b13a016c3dc24e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | up | 0.000222 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-6-4am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 4AM ET | 76,117,130 | 76,117,815 |
fac21d34033d0614fecefd16c1c7c9a4b68097e3 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x9c8fa11c295fbaa2802ca78fa705f9c30639fed69bce34f780d0cb830957c3fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - S... | up | 0.00007 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 4AM ET | 76,117,130 | 76,117,815 |
9e8babb4484c0a4730e044f49f7ee8c0a8a16134 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xed504fec083cca8da9da35636f3f0d6a7d62b231439d15a794f4c0e5e6b52fa4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 1PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-1pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 8.58507370285774e-06
3. Question: XRP Up o... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-6-4am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 6, 4AM ET | 76,117,130 | 76,117,815 |
17768858d52b12286297549c91cb3d1f7abcbb92 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xdc5c2ee6eb21ff70dc5ebc192efb6dbb6cbac599b0631b19f9940f91fe2c0e53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 1PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-1pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 8.58507370285774e-06
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 3, 1PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-3-1pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 4.9294096454837755e-05
3. Question:... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-6-4am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 6, 4AM ET | 76,117,130 | 76,117,888 |
2246f88fe53bce0b57aa1eb342bf5a4f71ce12a7 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x626035e9bcc597d09691488c49d155bf55223b606f0f4a72db03e2594fa145c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 3, 1PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-3-1pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 4.9294096454837755e-05
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 3, 1PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-3-1pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.93894665337106e-05
3. Question: Bit... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 9AM ET | 76,126,352 | 76,126,352 |
a88a465e84cbcbf5032c2cf5cef668949b387795 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x8089dcc972efe1c24b6833129f62cd1c205610cadaacda26384181a1cc866688 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 3, 1PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-3-1pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.93894665337106e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-6-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 9AM ET | 76,126,352 | 76,126,352 |
f7f03806229cb4d3a8dec91680ee4aa67690fbdf | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x7bf41da3dba205c5e57b9fa0be13361ad23e640ce38cf99b354cd3ba1ea8f5e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 2PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Se... | up | 0.000167 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-6-10am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 10AM ET | 76,128,259 | 76,128,259 |
b426e90020dad2f804e349cd951f92912057c1a6 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xb7ddead9187772e092d35c789c51f40c071c6d849c25de66dd8850947fe9730d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 2PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - S... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-6-10am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 6, 10AM ET | 76,128,259 | 76,128,259 |
d43666a9d837308b49e78006726db4f2c8e20c8f | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xcb1ee24b9fc31b28f126ce9e710cfb5caee6726bb309e68751af3890d48b4deb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 3PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - Sep... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 10AM ET | 76,128,259 | 76,128,259 |
bea919f967e156bad72bdb468434c4dce4908303 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x225c20fe343b3c3626235b0ec52b965330a5dafacf773a2d5bc922de3466e709 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 3PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 3, 3PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-3-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - Septembe... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-6-10am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 6, 10AM ET | 76,128,259 | 76,128,545 |
601e1e8fe9911cff829fc7c0d635dcd1fde7d7f9 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x0832b144a0ee43b2d2152e761b01a5098c9bf5704dd5a013bb4c208bdfe94c58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 3, 3PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-3-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 3, 3PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-3-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, ... | down | 0.000556 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-6-11am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 11AM ET | 76,129,603 | 76,129,603 |
c02d254863d2687a554709a01ca21e6a1d5e0049 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x7d00b2c54d93a868b3dd582d97677dd6991cecf5150bede895a8c460b9a9ce1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 3, 3PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-3-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 9PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 3, 9... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-6-11am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 6, 11AM ET | 76,129,603 | 76,129,603 |
b550dfd33bc6e1965461a64a30755e8bb28e0b45 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xe471597f3691fe01bc3667c1cb7349bc37a906971666861f16ca99ea4efbbe75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 9PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 3, 9PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 11AM ET | 76,129,603 | 76,129,603 |
b1645542233247c6df5016935159a4799424af55 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xf9f681a084554ca6943b6bb48f875354df3c27d67b68ab8f3a61e5be9b7a3679 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 3, 9PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 3, ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-6-11am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 6, 11AM ET | 76,129,603 | 76,129,603 |
de30c8742ee6b361d3201146c0948363bae3b5b9 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xef034421aa944029557e94790cab76818bde7abac2dc9ac6ee6528cc4a20990c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 3, 9PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - September ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 3PM ET | 76,137,068 | 76,137,068 |
a7dd98641f887c2066f8db392b74b6899f4bd550 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x4865c8d0c152a4a0c773d526e9b94e36c37a92ce99f138e668c988d345fb0c30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 3, 9PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 3, 10PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4,... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 4PM ET | 76,141,432 | 76,141,432 |
e6363664c3161e188bbeeede879e27361c7d3075 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xbf2d1971e60c101f39cc3152fa932078dde7dea188bdb276bf76bc7bca6e8cfa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 3, 10PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-4-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 4, 5... | up | 0.000065 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 1AM ET | 76,152,578 | 76,155,635 |
a95bf0e7d68807eb137919887b43e092413703d6 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x09b2d0f2de6dc19ea162df96591307fd5a1e33c223c0dd69f7b9c4bc757cfa38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-4-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 4, 5AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-4-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 4... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 2AM ET | 76,155,635 | 76,155,635 |
021df91dcfc19b270d1519c640e38cd5a26ab3da | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x235c9de6daac2785b78a8ae2b4f9e63ecc37cb8a508f7128df4823269e654962 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 4, 5AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-4-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 4, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-4-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 4... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-7-2am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 7, 2AM ET | 76,155,635 | 76,155,635 |
b5cfaf815879801c33d07058cb3b2315ce02bd80 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x504c341d4b90e9c26a399b735d56bf15ffc67f68ba37023f813044eacc012482 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 4, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-4-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 4, 5AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-4-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Sep... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-7-2am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 7, 2AM ET | 76,155,635 | 76,155,635 |
fc4b577711134cf144cc46a680144a46ffca6902 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x79fd4884b4bd8c3da29b1aaf66ab4bc935ff0995153fa8932cfac62bde66b457 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 4, 5AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-4-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 4, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-4-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Sept... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-1am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 1AM ET | 76,155,635 | 76,155,635 |
079e732a5b29f9e2fcd833fadb2c0450bddd8a3d | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xb8c385caf46db021eb06c0ad8c182dabf93b7bd7e48f57999e9209d28d2dfd17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 4, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-4-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - Septem... | up | 0.00063 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-2am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 2AM ET | 76,155,635 | 76,155,635 |
d905be969a7567c6e6324c405d6c4f658971d716 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x12543fa54ef410d0485d117d0af064101655955171fbb9f8b121b7b20a566f5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 4, 8AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 4... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-3am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 3AM ET | 76,157,918 | 76,157,918 |
45265100efaff9ff5fde617c53d03774a0c4a2b1 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x454ea5b0367efcef90e90bad116d4e345d0f61ceed5b533c2dbb6b10f8ca364e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 4, 8AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 4, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 4... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-7-3am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 7, 3AM ET | 76,157,918 | 76,157,918 |
68bedde4fe9165e57986942bb3a86a45a9d4d140 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xa51a472874852ea2cdeb8f1a7bdab53d07dea648f6df2c113a4d754f7d6721d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 4, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 4, 8AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002666755745141755
3. Question: Bitcoin... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 3AM ET | 76,157,918 | 76,157,918 |
c179ef546fd25dce8f5b83a5f694465a9dffb3b8 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x39645ddee6e597ea458643ad5e5f5ae4e3a14945d62116b08ba9ee0f22d25272 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 4, 8AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-4-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002666755745141755
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-5-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin U... | up | 0.00049 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 4AM ET | 76,158,778 | 76,158,778 |
fa610275f98a687b211ccdbd4416ee8db528c5f5 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x4b98847ea33a8313c088fbe6c2dff71b9b197d96615e1a3d3ff3d224207a4b0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-5-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-5-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - Septem... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-4am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 4AM ET | 76,158,778 | 76,158,778 |
c18eaff97c46bdd12b377052104d4a5164bb609e | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xbb3fa8b4e016c0e2d8d45875cc0b2f540b2c5be9057f099212f577cb2dd926ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-5-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 6, 3AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-6-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September... | up | 0.00032 | solana-up-or-down-september-7-4am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 7, 4AM ET | 76,158,778 | 76,158,778 |
39d73ad82cb4e3ee13a861a8ac3096bc4787c4fd | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xfe1468fc6971ac97fd6e9e12f57a2fa6279d465574e7711da844a261cb77bf22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 6, 3AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-6-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-6-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-7-4am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 7, 4AM ET | 76,158,778 | 76,158,778 |
780081d893f362baf7b0ece8fae0392319aac381 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x159c4330a23587f89285c81a1a42f8c99cb40ec1affa5554a3c660be60d62fba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-6-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-6-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0002220679574595759
3. Question: Bitco... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-7-5am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 7, 5AM ET | 76,159,639 | 76,159,639 |
6f0c4f6f20d7fa57aae44413d5bcd22a4e19c253 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x1c1b12343c6d24363cf8289b0e5f47e947dfebad620542fde4dfcf405470ea60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-6-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0002220679574595759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.968818943866739e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-5am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 5AM ET | 76,159,639 | 76,159,639 |
00f4ffde643ff99ae515121d03d159f962189ecf | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x2dc5c46be08d67110f40545011fdcddcce56bb404735731de35318e71258297c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.968818943866739e-05
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 6, 4AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-6-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or D... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-7-5am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 7, 5AM ET | 76,159,639 | 76,159,639 |
30356b9cdf9df793982902678724c71a6ad45857 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x02da0d2af542de0dd7b5ad4221d2d51bf8a4bccebb9a455e10e3d447042097a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 6, 4AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-6-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 6, 4AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-6-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 9... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 5AM ET | 76,159,639 | 76,161,440 |
9e28fac4c48cf7f146eaeebc8e5a98d4045c16eb | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x2770b526b6017071bbae9068fed2bfffa7d635bc2d8a55f4f36e25e422dee9f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 6, 4AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-6-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 6... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-6am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 6AM ET | 76,161,440 | 76,161,440 |
bdd02ba09b3877c985af89f4d167ba9b6ed1cee1 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x39f203c74a588a15eb47615d4aa9f41207d033ab8604c8cea8b306ce4fe4ff2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-6-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - S... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6AM ET | 76,161,440 | 76,283,677 |
6592c5f1761b7b125796afa4e9fa30a37cf99ed5 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x40c25a3965c4848f51759b948ae18683f0b0a34763cd92007138accbd7ee8633 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-6-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 10AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-6-10am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00016682782688152384
3. Question: XR... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-7-6am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 7, 6AM ET | 76,161,440 | 76,283,677 |
df2e9a5c24cacf2c7dac2040f812b5108c67afad | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x7fdc47974be483c8f2116f63ffeec8c712462a8d891286d3e9636e04547aef86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 10AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-6-10am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00016682782688152384
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 6, 10AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-6-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-7-6am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 7, 6AM ET | 76,163,120 | 76,283,674 |
d561af47dfdeead6a096d5f263b59c046d335363 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x005f2caa4d7cd3a5f7768d4a4769689cf68e3d094f1b27c7e9d09bf6cd7da98a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 6, 10AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-6-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - September... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 2PM ET | 76,174,768 | 76,185,950 |
f949bbc067a0b4f16233f6d4fd60ed2dd096023e | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x4b88c2c1888c53ccc550a957fe9a6e8f5e72aab8510c93f5208ce0cd91fa8f3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 6, 10AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-6-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - S... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-7-2pm-et | Solana Up or Down - September 7, 2PM ET | 76,174,768 | 76,185,950 |
6e54bc5bce698d73dc120c054637251bcd38b284 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xc548a4458867d6a2466f648a7612604c3fe1ac997d3754650a6a3a09efd76ef3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 6, 10AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-6-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-6-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0005563093079752342
3. Question: Sol... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-2pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 2PM ET | 76,174,768 | 76,185,950 |
891d8530d06828323ed27a4a8f94b8787a01cf85 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x45d831074d9b93ae3d43df83b6371a8578f260d88acb7da561c606234be271c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-6-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0005563093079752342
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 6, 11AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-6-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bit... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-7-2pm-et | XRP Up or Down - September 7, 2PM ET | 76,174,768 | 76,185,954 |
01098227e03a9901cd291fd8fd69bdc11877c88b | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xf63a3642cccd2f1af0ad67f5d15302f9ff2f4c2911cc1d6e34a22499b26f8478 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 6, 11AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-6-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - Septem... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-8pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 8PM ET | 76,185,950 | 76,185,950 |
dff3937c3ba89a645b7f6b4493df559e38dcfc17 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x2fc09ddd5fa06c58493e25cf7a06fbd490fbd4d6860405377d56e9d62431ed0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 6, 11AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-6-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Septembe... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-7-9pm-et | Solana Up or Down - September 7, 9PM ET | 76,187,396 | 76,187,396 |
6ffc68f4c86d57576698310a547b08aba0c980e9 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x31d99d0ac26034d5a1d1452bec56a1de7381d0d5078a7ac5782baad05d305454 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 6, 11AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-6-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-9pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 9PM ET | 76,187,876 | 76,187,876 |
2fa718d0173d6454b366ef76ea62b12bf99bb6d0 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xadc877c04322ec0797ee53b0eb219dab670cd0265cbc01edbbf466f2d9603214 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Sept... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 9PM ET | 76,187,876 | 76,187,876 |
66bf96cc182ccd566ad34d67a9b9663320ce2719 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xaab2d37debcf0f067d995bf329bc2c5ebc42db9b68634fc7a5568cbfac33c707 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-1am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.500422527464286e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin U... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 10PM ET | 76,189,140 | 76,283,675 |
a83fc39847f8d7d5ce856cccad20bb45f9b112b9 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xb1fab6195ab1743578374d6ec94e5857b42ca80088675ffa4411b7969631af40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-1am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.500422527464286e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-7-10pm-et | XRP Up or Down - September 7, 10PM ET | 76,189,140 | 76,283,675 |
200abb26587ce6dee932fef5ff29c6ea20e1e5d3 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xc3447af974174e1f44546893832599144dec9b86cd5fde728db10f77af4f47dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 7, 2AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-7-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - September ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-10pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 10PM ET | 76,189,140 | 76,283,675 |
b437af4b914977b4e628b65784f6ba84df97b9af | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x9a762848ba4e94652b04621ddd2f6d65e8c2f1023c41f3228f45038b6802a9e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 7, 2AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-7-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 7, 2AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-7-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-7-11pm-et | XRP Up or Down - September 7, 11PM ET | 76,190,304 | 76,190,408 |
3d62be31a12d40dd367209aafbcac8cf489a63ce | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xd623e085844e49ec7981c29ede8b4167e3d10e8ce5bf30ecd357a38eefecbf7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 7, 2AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-7-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 1AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September... | down | 0.000011 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 11PM ET | 76,190,304 | 76,190,954 |
b45a6bb89c6b6a4e03ddf29a072284207e2abb13 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xe9ddad9374d04d5c7fbbcb28f9008e5102d405d8dedd71abbccfbf1bb677c848 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 1AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-2am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0006301968980063644
3. Question: Ether... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-11pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 11PM ET | 76,190,408 | 76,190,466 |
97ba94fd10278d3a85d21385cc7d230f7ae9c47f | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x263df29a215a64e9a302d96f434237ecbd4977f580e5440094b9478b5f8aac0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-2am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0006301968980063644
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solan... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-7-11pm-et | Solana Up or Down - September 7, 11PM ET | 76,190,466 | 76,190,935 |
3ab79c9e7d659a43c734c0cc83d01d8586512f13 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x3fc753fd0e6e6406939234332a984286ca4f7b4b07cc41f11caf512bc2308699 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 7, 3AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-7-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Sept... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-8-12am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 12AM ET | 76,191,580 | 76,192,402 |
99902f1c24a383f669106c228ee743053163d8b3 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x8a04a49156a638cfa9b810a8e2e8d56229d6d5b465b17b5f3bd3be54d6fd2cf6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 7, 3AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-7-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Septem... | down | 0.000083 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-8-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 12AM ET | 76,192,290 | 76,192,639 |
f4f3623a81f45c6c4b5577a027e654d99b2ec05b | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xeb0d895d77f208a3eef0ee4a534a9caf51989e1e094d2747e3f801604259482b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0004902402177066762
3. Question: Ethereum ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-8-12am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 8, 12AM ET | 76,192,356 | 76,192,713 |
383ae6c87bdfc7ce165bd1e415510f6c85b94330 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x05215e3f6bf9558ce0aa3fc8ba70dfb1e70d3b19ebd4c2a83b84ffe5a51fc9a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0004902402177066762
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-8-12am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 8, 12AM ET | 76,192,384 | 76,192,506 |
e2a712294ecf8e6c302b2ca77027c501af9127cf | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xf2209327e13f5f49f4cac8ea29773431518aa62bc8ad90a58f7359c5e553dce1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 7, 4AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-7-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0003201024327784891
3. Question: XRP Up or... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-8-1am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 8, 1AM ET | 76,193,347 | 76,194,138 |
eedf44a7a8876d0a01103199511ea61a94f7e1b8 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xc1fda0ddf6c9b285c60da34d9709424a5297ed59f4a3a5d660ef68ea2401f8b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 7, 4AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-7-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0003201024327784891
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 7, 4AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-7-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down -... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-8-1am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 8, 1AM ET | 76,193,554 | 76,193,601 |
ee61ceb779c891f1f4b5fba2d76d3a16f7fb4971 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x3c48df72cea9c499b5053a9977511c6e3bab6abf3ab72a678c6b3c5f319afe84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 7, 4AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-7-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 7, 5AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-7-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-8-1am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 1AM ET | 76,193,714 | 76,194,364 |
34c4bd6dbd9d7469d34a69a6c96cc93235da1f8f | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x59c75aa97493ec6d369cbb50583bfc63755e68466ce140a9cf7f21b386b2b372 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 7, 5AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-7-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - Septembe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-8-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 1AM ET | 76,193,714 | 76,283,675 |
a16b7b82ef237386e8dee21ea70dc03588dea8d7 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xe15267d0aee75a77e80a5705817f2508a84be4dc08fec256bcd59496f01f0760 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 7, 5AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-7-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-8-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 2AM ET | 76,194,728 | 76,283,675 |
45ae27319286501ccad7a3b350ed00fe68500ac3 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xe0c6fd04827a03a28e2b2b48d87f684e7bfc204a49c7373be327be691abc7bc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 7, 5AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-7-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-8-2am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 2AM ET | 76,194,747 | 76,195,125 |
a189137e58b49dca834a6bbc5541932d37f5536c | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x612ab3429c9247dd996df0d88f93619b6e4fcd22010f29193b309a99964894d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Se... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-8-2am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 8, 2AM ET | 76,194,796 | 76,196,370 |
5560c549daf193aaf4a06362061a4cd9798cb51a | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x855fdfc832bf07bc371a24aacaecd0bbbca1906b2563126d1d59d476b9806e82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - Sep... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-8-2am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 8, 2AM ET | 76,194,852 | 76,194,852 |
7438320a61f645bb9f51dda06863edb44ba59689 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x3f7e5d11ca70a55a32db0738b5a6b31ab715405fd23de99cb09eafe11cfed829 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 7, 6AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-7-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - September ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-8-3am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 3AM ET | 76,197,210 | 76,198,081 |
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