sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
e27dd974c96ba2af6aec28ba6fe3b7ba22a1c4de | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x318a75cd04b52e0e8afbd3b9f9f0730ebbe9babf528fd5cfa235ded04870e012 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 7, 6AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-7-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 7, 6AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-7-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 2... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-8-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 6AM ET | 76,202,944 | 76,202,944 |
47ad7593f7e14d789d5e186fef1c3445435afb98 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xa68b09d4d197f9cdc792df383ef4b489b4752c22928260d602e472cba4533d94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 7, 6AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-7-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 7, ... | down | 0.000114 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-8-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 8AM ET | 76,205,056 | 76,205,056 |
37041532bcae5a1144aa9ed46cb0b38b8b314507 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xb9ab751a08e91f04235c6e006d02d2bdab4d1fe404dc11b70f8bcd0cfe6d48bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 7, 2PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-7-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Septe... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-8-1pm-et | Solana Up or Down - September 8, 1PM ET | 76,213,833 | 76,283,675 |
f2e43e43595b91c748cbafec0d0d6aedbc49c6b8 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xc5c32b2c094980ed8044fcda40bbea29fa38330d2ba75212bed52f0bd5a63c28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 7, 2PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-7-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 2PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - Septembe... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-8-1pm-et | XRP Up or Down - September 8, 1PM ET | 76,213,835 | 76,213,835 |
e747b1c06154efa29b97c6e49fa1833002646558 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xcf1da033fd3ff630276769fbcc3d611b00ce98d3ecb672fac775d3e155030151 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 2PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 7, 2PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-7-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-8-1pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 1PM ET | 76,214,312 | 76,214,731 |
b22c969a83f4300329d2369f8617bbf9365c029d | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xf15ff8cc86beff79b17905e5cf55946577cdfd36ca4434db3081b2005ed3d95b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 7, 2PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-7-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 8PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 7... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-8-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 5PM ET | 76,220,411 | 76,236,664 |
124c65c719572cace7120d990f46e7a2d767f1d1 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x7d701c308358fbd0e4bfc8fa778cc09e98cbefb1c8316d47b88a10ffe52f4d9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 8PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 7, 9PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-7-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Sep... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-9-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 3AM ET | 76,236,878 | 76,238,395 |
a50516ab0504e3c742db36ceb8d64d7a680b20b4 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xb8a03c4c6b40fd55352d84d1e6df25cc53d59c8418190be1e0f59c47883db957 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 7, 9PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-7-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 9PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Sept... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-9-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 7AM ET | 76,283,671 | 76,283,671 |
a05f4429a447925cbfdf24646de813a45df1aea5 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x7d2c987b15bc771d3a78eed352e3019ba064ed8daf7c5f2f876c80eb71cf712d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 9PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Se... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-10-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 9AM ET | 76,283,850 | 77,167,152 |
1db7aa2dc433a2522335bebca7a39d0ad67d989d | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x8ef71e71164763561edce2adddcdbf90da639cbfe5f91e207da69878d7fe43f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - Septem... | up | 0.000003 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-2-8am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 8AM ET | 77,167,170 | 77,168,699 |
6844f0ef757d8a87fb9fc14bc1245a864fcad98b | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xc8ddf3a637f59989819c6e664c47b144dc6f19c70d76d3f83f25f72578b08612 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 7, 10PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-7-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Septemb... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-2-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 9AM ET | 77,169,300 | 77,204,275 |
51f16e2b688735482a6a74115e24dcef832a01ee | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0x76c795b3d54728a9cd354775cd478a3bf40e47cb5be2470f8e5981c261dc9fc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 7, 10PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-7-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - September ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-3-6am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 3, 6AM ET | 77,205,020 | 77,205,941 |
d12af53538896b1ad359c14bcf24a83c6c6d7770 | 0x39ad46cd3332c0aa9a983747e81342dc43fb6ebf | 0xacaba4f74d58d617a12f84f52dca3a975c0b37db943f7119e04db696898dc69e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-7-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 7, 11PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-7-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Septem... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-3-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 3, 7AM ET | 77,207,635 | 77,207,635 |
8c40ceb7253e51182aacdaae288292565b6a653b | 0x39c7c5541fe7b58e561d306e97b42e7bde960bba | 0x2293cb0de727d25a5fba8e5c9f34fc56c6e6175d37bd9f29b6ccbae72d68593c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Joe Biden win the New Hampshire Democratic primary?
Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Will Joe Biden win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | 52,690,094 | 52,690,094 |
1b93d0c7dd5bd6cd417aac89a2b8963f0c505337 | 0x39c7c5541fe7b58e561d306e97b42e7bde960bba | 0xec82c4ea2e6e1d88707f03892db782430f0d459e5f1fb2a94a1487e05718b4f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Dean Phillips win the New Hampshire Democratic primary?
Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner
Predict the user's c... | no | 1 | new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Will Dean Phillips win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | 52,690,094 | 52,690,094 |
6baa879086a0cafc1b59352f2f60d594e4561af9 | 0x39c7c5541fe7b58e561d306e97b42e7bde960bba | 0x9f48a05fb3f34c80866fc41729ec0b085dba86c944df2b0400b925c31e56e233 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dean Phillips win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | 52,693,622 | 52,693,622 |
dc0027b91aae627d70e8682082b332b01fcab191 | 0x39c7c5541fe7b58e561d306e97b42e7bde960bba | 0x8b639969c9a41ab89381df2c6adf41ab4f5bb1faf272a9ac883117f635e21cf8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dean Phillips win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Will Nikki Haley win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | 52,716,336 | 52,716,336 |
2625d7b7af0c4f57a4a0085091d61d0c6456a2cd | 0x39c7c5541fe7b58e561d306e97b42e7bde960bba | 0xe6137f8637c8a9595dfec6e1f0133d3ab941846d7e80d3d33e5387f57bb5a37c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dean Phillips win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | 53,935,384 | 53,935,384 |
5ea7f4b097ba976ea6858bc31c223c10b730a50b | 0x39c7c5541fe7b58e561d306e97b42e7bde960bba | 0x2cf06bc2611641b8d3bd72a00c368e243b0495f144035a3db03b888dda89f74f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dean Phillips win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? | 54,346,735 | 54,346,735 |
586ea24be614c27e8a328b32a0541c3634051442 | 0x39c7c5541fe7b58e561d306e97b42e7bde960bba | 0x904aa321a48f737e2223e7b3007bf51d68b6a0d66bdda0c1e4bc581f55d62800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dean Phillips win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | ghostbusters-frozen-empire-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' gross under $35m opening weekend? | 55,076,997 | 55,076,997 |
1cbe5c2728f7fcd7b6b73b9ccf2c7bbf8307c5cb | 0x39c7c5541fe7b58e561d306e97b42e7bde960bba | 0x836fdc987a9ec39043a75b8c65643647cb03ad18432180b06820bd5446a0f805 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dean Phillips win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 0.020115 | who-will-win-california-special-election-to-supersede-mccarthy | Will Mike Boudreaux win CA-20 Special Election? | 57,236,495 | 57,236,495 |
ec55c0fd90166b82872f19e02e1df60919053206 | 0x39c7c5541fe7b58e561d306e97b42e7bde960bba | 0x6cafb731e466c9eb3a5bddc5144fe10868192e83b56cf38a63c0052a924ece00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dean Phillips win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | who-will-win-california-special-election-to-supersede-mccarthy | Will Vince Fong win CA-20 Special Election? | 57,238,980 | 57,238,980 |
10ddc52e4115cfbcfe36a4a835ffaebbb19f0a61 | 0x39c7c5541fe7b58e561d306e97b42e7bde960bba | 0x752a37b21dac984692e419b3ca97fa1c989b2c3fa6b8a69b331bcafc897ca502 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dean Phillips win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | who-will-win-california-special-election-to-supersede-mccarthy | Will Vince Fong win CA-20 Special Election? | 57,277,856 | 57,277,856 |
784f9f3556a174254a6527449d89ade0d3a2a103 | 0x39c7c5541fe7b58e561d306e97b42e7bde960bba | 0x80e14125844dcb3dd3885290bc0a03626223a92b3a704ba10363d250e8640b86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dean Phillips win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Mexican Presidential Election: Will Claudia Sheinbaum win? | 57,737,971 | 57,737,971 |
6ab3d89ef77bf8578b0fdbe48f6ac9d4989e8628 | 0x39c7c5541fe7b58e561d306e97b42e7bde960bba | 0xd2c10628e74b85fae2c89b7a63642960d53bd7533652e076b339e7d6b32f319f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dean Phillips win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Mexican Presidential Election: Will Xóchitl Gálvez win? | 57,737,971 | 57,737,971 |
f57dbcc456295903456d122f74e287adb9853fce | 0x39c7c5541fe7b58e561d306e97b42e7bde960bba | 0x3777e6667d5bea7f111146760f62b356abd2978eb35384f6ba3a0973afc1b8cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dean Phillips win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | indian-election-how-many-seats-will-the-nda-win | Will the NDA win 300-325 seats? | 57,808,313 | 57,808,313 |
cf5a647c22db4f7cf6120c5c89d81f1d2c6ac5b8 | 0x39c7c5541fe7b58e561d306e97b42e7bde960bba | 0xeb6caf5a1d87fc80e5a1f2c6c9a893d49b335b8274dcfbbc77356fea6c01fdea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dean Phillips win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | may-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will May 2024 show an increase greater than 1.30C? | 58,048,180 | 58,048,180 |
9d0af1f08d86732cc7f88edc69f77d8a46011df9 | 0x39c7c5541fe7b58e561d306e97b42e7bde960bba | 0x2a5466afcb809f688a923504c4d6fe79452f04e69ed2d1dac5791c4986194231 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dean Phillips win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | ny-14-democratic-primary-winner | Will Marty Dolan win the NY-14 Democratic House Primary? | 58,626,657 | 58,626,657 |
4416bba84293a4d8a033174b47a3823666009ad6 | 0x39c7c5541fe7b58e561d306e97b42e7bde960bba | 0x9a908da8bad60c32c8aad3cef0d65cd3770519160468ab1502032439fe3aa0ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dean Phillips win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | ny-14-democratic-primary-winner | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the NY-14 Democratic House Primary? | 58,626,657 | 58,626,657 |
5f4f297df8fd56898de61b698179b17922ec1d62 | 0x39c7c5541fe7b58e561d306e97b42e7bde960bba | 0x99c0965b13b8374737bf087337afe310fe9fe22d0b2a35d7972cae10ddba2711 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dean Phillips win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | republican-vp-nominee | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 59,413,714 | 59,413,714 |
568045d3e24b120357b4900ad80038692c29a178 | 0x39c7c5541fe7b58e561d306e97b42e7bde960bba | 0xa3f413434b7d308752ee86c92737947b02f18ad43883afbbe3b0124fa6e46d14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dean Phillips win the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | republican-vp-supplemental | Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 59,413,714 | 59,413,714 |
37d62eb0b847f45e6fcd6e9fc4d3a33c14f648f7 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x5561ccf7eae779e4bfc82e4fe621c7cd82a83b5def3948d9302544d13f2aa2b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET?
Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | 73,896,230 | 73,896,230 |
889c77a2bd2ab4efc4b70402bb815cac22fe0814 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xc52dc1eb8483f04afb512d8949dd748aadce762f34ff586eaace348301012d95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET?
Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et
Predict the use... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | 73,896,230 | 73,896,230 |
16e1afcba12305163bcb17b54f9e03a173b42475 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xf6debd03853894efa07dd6f8d9680d5370c15770b2aba9c05e2f61ca7aa6bc1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | 73,896,230 | 73,896,230 |
ee3e12815988ba4c3b8bafa969575a72c3cd0b7d | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x02b0b905ffc73d27720f8b86e0cecdec10ad33d0e58359295f1929dc0594c292 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-minnesota-united-vs-san-jose | Will San Jose Earthquakes beat Minnesota United FC? | 73,915,068 | 73,915,068 |
7ccbb4c5bb9616b89641545b1a0fce338c430b40 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x09dccc39989c0329e3c9fd4fe6061fa6fb333368c01de80657ae3c36e744c7ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | 2025-mid-season-invitational | Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | 73,915,068 | 73,915,068 |
cf776be8d6844672dd70cf03356623868d086544 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x7baaba51f55b33154557b587038d9f32a7341881c8bb24bbe26bc97cc342eede | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 0.884462 | 2025-mid-season-invitational | Will T1 win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | 73,915,068 | 73,915,068 |
cc7dbd249e55af8cff9649a005b9577dcff5c07d | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x33c447405b1078f94a81c956721d3cd9f1d34a39381b6bb5b1c5b466ed440f4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | guardians | 1 | mlb-cle-cws-2025-07-13 | Guardians vs. White Sox | 73,929,974 | 73,929,974 |
33cc890856f14b3a1eb3267a1d00f7743b8fc3b1 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x58e6dabcbe0b32490a7280dfe1c3cce28f10aa76dbae3740c2863742f5fc4679 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 0.77957 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,929,975 | 73,929,975 |
7a0476e895b7546e56d2cf2c6666a7af26f6b513 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xc45f6f5fcbc814bdcaf46b16eccfec63cef615cc364d75ad3f49f74e0afd3615 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 0.73967 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,929,975 | 73,929,975 |
7a4814afa93588027ea989b95676bca88b1b9af0 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xca9248bb2e1dbb353839d674024f41ec1a9565bdd438dc8941b7a0d92f279d5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 0.553814 | bitcoin-price-july-13-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 13 at 5PM ET? | 73,931,991 | 73,931,991 |
02d2f251854a1a20071e0622aa7c96025a7ca81f | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xcddc4839d7f41cd37d0aaf0a4b8336178ae799b9d166f25fe0c35f4a61682d8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 0.232323 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,931,991 | 73,931,991 |
adc437e18616ddd824b1e33052eb7379c790cbfb | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xcf537d36b560667773f45d92c627c9cd0ff34e971d2ecdee4d27caa2a6c15c84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-90-min-result | Will Chelsea beat PSG? | 73,931,991 | 73,931,991 |
fff9f80e8954c8c06ee8cc7bfcf1a533e528ecfc | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xb6962b989017686887fa1da17833382f75020234abc9a0eadcf2b6f1876a11b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 0.645052 | bitcoin-price-july-13-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 13 at 5PM ET? | 73,931,992 | 73,931,992 |
1e89076d531ee9b8a5816ea72e0834c4d19c2c12 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xedc438a6d3472bda2b5eaf2ce3814900e3c1122046e17886c35ad32c83f16eff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-13-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $116K on July 13 at 5PM ET? | 73,931,992 | 73,931,992 |
53a311f0f4ed99317253efdde3d479fbfca02cbd | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x007874e445b2e07f6372e8c10fdafa0f0132e7aca49cbb6c1d4d329855d17bb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | who-will-win-love-island-season-7-woman | Will Amaya win Season 7 of Love Island USA? | 73,966,856 | 73,966,856 |
e8eace5d990b50e0078a6f332dc6a76aa57c305c | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x00f3408a9ff6996ab0b00e2d53adae2f75f9f4d51cfb58d700d97c2062b19cce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | cricket-england-vs-india-3rd-test | Will India win the match? | 73,966,856 | 73,966,856 |
c511af615241cb56d59448739022c980811b04e6 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x62417b1e8ed2c3fb876f370b21c62991a2857a9172e05259e6d870b79c0afea5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-love-island-season-7-woman | Will Iris win Season 7 of Love Island USA? | 73,966,856 | 73,966,856 |
e6e959dd455c63d28aebc608db1dbd79d18bf6ea | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x77e2670d95eb00fe59141b91f347614bd888d90664828377ed46dee878faf680 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | cricket-england-vs-india-3rd-test | Will England win the match? | 73,966,856 | 73,966,856 |
b54692ef21367ed2b1818bcea27c263665c8d1af | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xae859e039eb0bf3e24d4fd4be9fc97fc0c06eac5f40dfaa264dbce4ff2b926b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | who-will-win-love-island-season-7-woman | Will Huda win Season 7 of Love Island USA? | 73,966,856 | 73,966,856 |
8411eeb89daf99ea11ae7b26b6e53eab0d7fcb5b | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xb76ede3f35be25a27b61b8992460632500e4f183181f56125c819caa80fa0f03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | who-will-win-love-island-season-7-men-477 | Will Bryan win Season 7 of Love Island USA? | 73,966,856 | 73,966,856 |
4a3162ac73643af9de7267882cbe119e2594782c | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xc6284fb7a24aae80081bec272035b30ae6b984c1460f8e84e858911079865637 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | cricket-england-vs-india-3rd-test | Will England vs. India end in a draw? | 73,966,856 | 73,966,856 |
32bb7853b64b60083b761e038f9b8e2e77d7bede | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x54023e8b49c03fec0ea502acc1fd255edc292c2bf987c6259d95f0021c5d97e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 0.20326 | superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m? | 73,968,114 | 73,968,114 |
1ab4db1c6ada13bf23be8e0237462202bf97daf0 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xaa6003296f7eda1fab2513a054df1bebd4c28eb449d905efccb81ba2c612772b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | which-movie-has-best-opening-weekend-in-2025 | Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | 73,968,114 | 73,968,114 |
b0ddac2ff320cb253aafd36a21abce0c2469cd82 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x04f329d73b62308041ae1ee5a823f97d62f9eaea661b6e9ebdf2d85d80c8acb2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | 73,971,703 | 73,971,703 |
6b661ac0d079a541398c0c44f468ac0e1c01cf03 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xc8ebb0513e1e4b368fdd66cce514459cbe63caa745df72b73e2d10d2d69381e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 0.853158 | bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | 73,971,703 | 73,971,703 |
5d64f976079fc4821cf8b8d22897df05c0a6e60c | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xe7dfad885ad9724a6a99d098d92de7d44ea3007b022eecddaa55503514793c12 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | 73,971,703 | 73,971,703 |
0114a322a8c6b1dfee8a75b39d848affd2f0a626 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x06b6df9f89147714f1ec7b41c85d94e63f056866627d0a8c515e8ac0e04c5596 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 0.859836 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-june | Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June? | 73,995,945 | 73,995,945 |
b3ef39190e86849a0650805b308c0ff64945250e | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x1a6a1200a90568609a23a428e0688057cb25d0212638aef192be1689cc2f6f81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | june-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in June? | 73,995,945 | 73,995,945 |
4971dfe7154af6a2dd9c4d95c5d7a6fd8a379f04 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x2420008d1b5e9f6a8048a6499c090e035678baa4f963793033af3aa05ad8d145 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 0.750899 | june-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in June? | 73,995,945 | 73,995,945 |
1622bb07d22af05165039f4319540b11ae78e5c3 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x530a6b3ebaf485f7f68755df3ab651ebf134c52fecce813817055de90cd36b2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 0.661728 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-june | Will a dozen eggs be between $4-4.25 in June? | 73,995,945 | 73,995,945 |
a4391ecc262924a5384d65124383ad3722a1e5e9 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x84356d5bc0f4ab25e70869ace61e562219d9bfdbd57773f6591c74e085388778 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | june-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in June? | 73,995,945 | 73,995,945 |
288d90970d9e008a94f6cfb0f89d59c4e2421979 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x8dfc9a57ae77ee9190635aeb82b53daad2ae6c1bfeeceabc0c4c1b0f77aabc7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 0.53115 | june-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in June? | 73,995,945 | 73,995,945 |
7f0a17717ac36a6489a5aaabf9de2d528a3d5d55 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x9293c57558b5ff9b9e7c1a5ae14c2f2d21dc9dd6758f040929a61598dcf53637 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will San Jose Earthquakes beat Minnesota United FC? | Event: mls-soccer-minnesota-united-vs-san-jose | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | june-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in June? | 73,995,945 | 73,995,945 |
0f8ff583ff209164ef3583a87d204f832430da5a | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xa9868cc96fc4f4a3754f1af1cd4210e7e43e8d3d8e75617dd1af1ca77b4e5e3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will San Jose Earthquakes beat Minnesota United FC? | Event: mls-soccer-minnesota-united-vs-san-jose | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025-mid-season-invitational | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will T1 win the ... | no | 0.673978 | june-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in June? | 73,995,945 | 73,995,945 |
e893cb78a119bcb452a2e23e0d9f02460521fe33 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xaf0bb30d06e5a71b246b8e91a68c7fc12c0229bfe73d58952598becf43ccfac1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025-mid-season-invitational | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will T1 win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025-mid-season-invitational | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8844621513944223
3. Question: Guardians vs. Whit... | no | 1 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-june | Will a dozen eggs be between $3.5-3.75 in June? | 73,995,945 | 73,995,945 |
be2e77acd472644467b3f11347294c992d10e222 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xb2d7cbed366ad8d308771f07b80c5786925b2ff96227aa3406dc045816764d37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025-mid-season-invitational | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8844621513944223
2. Question: Guardians vs. White Sox | Event: mlb-cle-cws-2025-07-13 | Choice: guardians | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Ev... | no | 0.828433 | june-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in June? | 73,995,945 | 73,995,945 |
89bad146d163a5a37d6fb882a92726cbc0e17abb | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xbc4cdb10426216b17912fee2f4aaaa3d588634f4ca10054ad759b10c89ab5d5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Guardians vs. White Sox | Event: mlb-cle-cws-2025-07-13 | Choice: guardians | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7795698924731183
3. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-... | yes | 0.578728 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-june | Will a dozen eggs be below $3.50 in June? | 73,995,945 | 73,995,945 |
cbdf9e33cf9c553b91b9dd085aa61fa1dcf7e1b4 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x60fa10c3691bca03ca9581bfe6362b009d8cb00844cb10ad59dbbd8e9ce8a2af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7795698924731183
2. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7396700963579944
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be ... | no | 0.566982 | pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $6-8B one day after launch? | 74,002,936 | 74,010,229 |
5d4ce70d2ade1b765a3ddba12543e4eb61ebe6ad | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x9274f0d03d3ac85a150d2001bc4e08a9b94e5c9a8635b51f6598d2fa8b9e0d99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7396700963579944
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 13 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-13-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5538135593220339
3.... | yes | 0.400248 | pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Pump.fun market cap (FDV) <$4B one day after launch? | 74,002,936 | 74,010,229 |
8bf17924b350597014ea6affa487d9091cf5f49d | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xe2b137a04ffe1bb844c52405a87c51fc9d4c60ba57791d08b7ff6cdc75e1a9ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 13 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-13-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5538135593220339
2. Question: Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.23232323232323232... | no | 0.902117 | pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $4-6B one day after launch? | 74,002,936 | 74,010,229 |
afe33803dd74bba2dcfc509ff2c7862458b3e571 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x8c7f7973a0ee75f5eb8604dc596d69e7a579ebb205bab903f252047f1a53b5dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.23232323232323232
2. Question: Will Chelsea beat PSG? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-90-min-result | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be bet... | yes | 1 | pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Pump.fun market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? | 74,010,229 | 74,010,229 |
de27e3b2caaef5af51ae63bde1b131abd5262893 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xbccbcf6a3645b6062d9887acba9980d2cf36ee00380b9bac707683bb44cb02d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat PSG? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-90-min-result | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 13 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-13-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6450524737631185
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-15-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $122K on July 15 at 5PM ET? | 74,010,229 | 74,010,229 |
8a751e99def058ea88db47936061986e2422e65a | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xe3f962292e654695857b0910f3313c4285b5fe26ed4e9a8b129cafb3f1e2bfd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 13 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-13-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6450524737631185
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $116K on July 13 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-13-5pm-et | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-15-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $120K on July 15 at 5PM ET? | 74,010,229 | 74,010,229 |
adda8a3958d6788077b89bcf2d018bacf9063003 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xefd93c9a44c4073e75f880876b9ea95ca2da2a70af31d511e4e49482895807ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $116K on July 13 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-13-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Amaya win Season 7 of Love Island USA? | Event: who-will-win-love-island-season-7-woman | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will I... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-15-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120K and $121K on July 15 at 5PM ET? | 74,010,229 | 74,010,229 |
7fee0550b56fd7d3324628f5baf530f8639b408d | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x7fed109beefcab5f5f4dbfafcf912d024b9036214e70511fbbf2df53efe3db96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Amaya win Season 7 of Love Island USA? | Event: who-will-win-love-island-season-7-woman | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will India win the match? | Event: cricket-england-vs-india-3rd-test | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iris win Season 7 of Love Island USA?... | no | 1 | world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Will Leo Margets win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | 74,032,051 | 74,032,051 |
a59bee186c2011cfe548bc95dba166fd731017e4 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xf751e59cffde0c8a2fab132f3ee136a709c9bf403236e4710c084866b5b5af38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will India win the match? | Event: cricket-england-vs-india-3rd-test | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Iris win Season 7 of Love Island USA? | Event: who-will-win-love-island-season-7-woman | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win the match? | Event: crick... | no | 1 | world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Will Luka Bojovic win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | 74,032,051 | 74,032,051 |
13769d832e0bd3b2063ea60cd0ce8d0b4027e65b | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x3715ee1a84aa476342ac40db1c3144a093e9e1b2a5d50825ccc92e99e34785bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iris win Season 7 of Love Island USA? | Event: who-will-win-love-island-season-7-woman | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England win the match? | Event: cricket-england-vs-india-3rd-test | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Huda win Season 7 of Love Island USA... | yes | 0.187485 | world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Will Adam Hendrix win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | 74,032,051 | 74,674,693 |
ccdd0b81edb496a6d78e03f8243d5cb59f3f5ae5 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x34e140c2f955327cb4cc05a618b6ffb09c9b4f9bfd454bd9f483c838802f8100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England win the match? | Event: cricket-england-vs-india-3rd-test | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Huda win Season 7 of Love Island USA? | Event: who-will-win-love-island-season-7-woman | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bryan win Season 7 of Love Island USA... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 11–18? | 74,040,945 | 74,040,945 |
bea60ef3a16670704d4fa308ccee3c59d8f4cb3f | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x902317a17f44bc7144728750420a36fb0706da8fed39a0f11d8e35efdd582984 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Huda win Season 7 of Love Island USA? | Event: who-will-win-love-island-season-7-woman | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bryan win Season 7 of Love Island USA? | Event: who-will-win-love-island-season-7-men-477 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England vs. I... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on July 16? | 74,040,945 | 74,040,945 |
37485a48d491f9e641db572e6d8aec878be50faa | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x9d94cf2fd42439c80c46e31f4bd761a3150106eacf42a2a2bf872c6ecb561526 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryan win Season 7 of Love Island USA? | Event: who-will-win-love-island-season-7-men-477 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England vs. India end in a draw? | Event: cricket-england-vs-india-3rd-test | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Superman" Opening Week... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-july-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on July 16? | 74,040,945 | 74,040,945 |
4ff6de7b17e5fb74f72cfd1ac2c802710ee6b8a8 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xb2ffb0ca595cd47d739ac95e9df71b5c6e69e6b45a9c90872a8401daf5c7123c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England vs. India end in a draw? | Event: cricket-england-vs-india-3rd-test | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m? | Event: superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.20325987882687255
3. Questi... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-july-16 | Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on July 16? | 74,040,945 | 74,040,945 |
d6594d60a3d667555494633dd2b7a2c89a7c9d8f | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x25e7ce2982bef210bf80f998f5a958b685b7fa1f916bf07a3713c5a6af7e07a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m? | Event: superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.20325987882687255
2. Question: Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Event: which-movie-has-best-opening-weekend-in-2025 | Ch... | no | 0.295112 | solana-price-on-july-16 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $170 on July 16? | 74,040,945 | 74,236,100 |
32a2a75df1c1808a17390f8cd197ff407e738c1b | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x37a5c2176c03f55e39ae559e7ca473e77d328d552697ee8fee6aaec5736046a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Event: which-movie-has-best-opening-weekend-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Co... | yes | 0.944221 | ethereum-price-on-july-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on July 16? | 74,040,945 | 74,674,693 |
4aa569a047990b781d810e9f408b11941b496e3a | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x4102168ad35de4b7ad1799bbafefb53d497fa4eb2ad76cb27319402dd377b0aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0... | no | 1 | uefa-womens-euro-2025-winner | Will Norway win the UEFA Women's Euro? | 74,051,182 | 74,051,182 |
1a525b7b9879b7534875ff20bc6646e311574186 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x43c314bc5d1efd09d3e97332631dad6388bf5ce7f9b63f205947ac3b5e694ed6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8531575427534155
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Will Braxton Dunaway win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | 74,051,182 | 74,051,182 |
cc2277767af3aff622a831ebeccc7073b43d8dce | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x81ea46365403f183e0bc8b631fb3951a989e65ae85d6f6c0ea8afc2cea0cd408 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8598356694055099
3. Que... | no | 1 | world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Will Kenny Hallaert win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | 74,051,182 | 74,051,182 |
f955854801679fe85b2034f26f1ba2a834f3743b | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xbf85eb17b4bc86c8f03a33501a782693ec97e5b264db55f28e87acd92e6906c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8598356694055099
2. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in June? | Event: june-inflation-monthly | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will monthly infl... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-16-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 16 at 5PM ET? | 74,051,182 | 74,051,182 |
f2e5850f6c464efd682cbdda3f5684003d249a52 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xf99fe91f6539da20327b0037494f965dd425ef8395d3c5f6cf09004e350b2f0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in June? | Event: june-inflation-monthly | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in June? | Event: june-inflation-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7508989865969271
3. Question: Will a dozen eggs b... | no | 1 | freestyle-chess-lands-in-las-vegas | Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | 74,051,182 | 74,051,182 |
d2d1e13a25fa33d9396ec5485967eb3e18f4a34a | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xd442fd4ab39a34fca92b9338fe1c2069b860a9e995cc766ade240745c8c0d3cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in June? | Event: june-inflation-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7508989865969271
2. Question: Will a dozen eggs be between $4-4.25 in June? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6617283950617284
3. Question: Will mont... | yes | 0.369863 | bitcoin-price-july-16-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 16 at 5PM ET? | 74,051,182 | 74,236,100 |
87e65eb93711ab2c158fe0dd72c926bae82a4e1e | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x66778831614a769484ee4ef65aed1ff8c29511067283607f007c21cf0251ec2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a dozen eggs be between $4-4.25 in June? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6617283950617284
2. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in June? | Event: june-inflation-monthly | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will annual inflation inc... | yes | 0.856495 | bitcoin-price-july-16-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $116K on July 16 at 5PM ET? | 74,051,182 | 74,674,694 |
5039d4a35fb07979cc0e00774613a32ada41356a | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x10d3c9a27547c178d60e602895ea2530caeaeda63883fa947f1fda8fed23e99b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in June? | Event: june-inflation-monthly | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in June? | Event: june-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5311496467565832
3. Question: Will annual inflation increase... | no | 0 | ethereum-all-time-high-before-2026 | Ethereum all time high before 2026? | 74,051,402 | 74,051,402 |
c94fca39d77ed402678b1cb12c1663107883c785 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x20464980a22be54736ef3fa1fff8e1ea3f0d0699f63d24a723ca0b414a97a177 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in June? | Event: june-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5311496467565832
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in June? | Event: june-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will annual inflation increase ... | no | 0.206472 | 2nd-place-in-new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 74,051,402 | 74,051,402 |
b157b3b450fb19812aa7702966a32d979bb80951 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x2eb93075f572715b2d6255916879f4e524de31916106311d5e47a57ede334c1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in June? | Event: june-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in June? | Event: june-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6739777958299485
3. Question: Will a dozen eggs be be... | yes | 0.175729 | world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | 74,051,402 | 74,052,055 |
20bcf103d9ef42343c95ad788278d40ba824dcce | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x316cd5b34b1b7d360831c90d323011ccbf435e8fdc04ae0ab5cf91aea9c0396a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in June? | Event: june-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6739777958299485
2. Question: Will a dozen eggs be between $3.5-3.75 in June? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will monthly infla... | no | 0 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-july | Will Ethereum reach $3700 in July? | 74,051,402 | 74,084,018 |
6c1dbb4cf1a83127c80d011795dca19fa984d5c2 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x99414571aca688955888051e6b05abd2d13299ab882b4195615de5f8486238ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a dozen eggs be between $3.5-3.75 in June? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in June? | Event: june-inflation-monthly | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8284333467579541
3. Question: Will a dozen eggs be bel... | no | 0.752205 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | 74,051,402 | 74,096,171 |
e8ceacd9ae02fb4befb6ab7af3e434afde3545bf | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xf60e13d1017d2e92a2b556bb2a3f5e09c2811d850894e0edf26991e7ec850ac5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in June? | Event: june-inflation-monthly | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8284333467579541
2. Question: Will a dozen eggs be below $3.50 in June? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5787281755566234
3. Question: Pump.fun marke... | no | 0.443074 | bitcoin-price-july-17-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $120K on July 17 at 5PM ET? | 74,051,402 | 74,096,171 |
f2f77567ab1e6f1106515a9ad6219cad46a1823f | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x8e1082ce158c0f1909c5a79e9b7d72019b9a00462c30afc7584fcf3cf091ea25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a dozen eggs be below $3.50 in June? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5787281755566234
2. Question: Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $6-8B one day after launch? | Event: pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.566981943250215
3.... | no | 0.258506 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18? | 74,051,402 | 74,137,338 |
edda60206cc0416143d943e694bb5f70473dd0be | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xb47c81425ab9755e2ca22b89235b546c0430bb43254b295a20a2ca0df8d9b673 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $6-8B one day after launch? | Event: pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.566981943250215
2. Question: Pump.fun market cap (FDV) <$4B one day after launch? | Event: pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 0.150725 | solana-price-on-july-18 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on July 18? | 74,051,402 | 74,137,338 |
7b468a9344e01f98cfa8c70ce4a6b93e483c3626 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x02dc46f4354c1cc447577db82ba62cca1bda737bd67b73fe966ce1bfe580868f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pump.fun market cap (FDV) <$4B one day after launch? | Event: pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.40024844720496894
2. Question: Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $4-6B one day after launch? | Event: pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 0.276377 | fed-decision-in-september | No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | 74,051,402 | 74,137,345 |
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