sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
45dfa0a9b8794787ec3564821c36965ca9c07efb | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x9f41a3e4a2ef548cf207c22a48dbaf73e28dda5ec014c145217f428aaf3769e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $4-6B one day after launch? | Event: pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9021168807671431
2. Question: Pump.fun market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? | Event: pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confi... | no | 0.350523 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | 74,051,402 | 74,137,345 |
0fe4f9a568b96a03520d2c874a46e0b54fd9c0a7 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x0727c46badde62203be2ca490e0f0b1670d340f9931f8c7fadbea51d2f1ddbfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pump.fun market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? | Event: pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $122K on July 15 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-15-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 0.31057 | solana-price-on-july-18 | Will the price of Solana be less than $150 on July 18? | 74,051,402 | 74,236,099 |
f5686a17682c65a439cf3c369133cafdd6bf92a9 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x1aac6d93dd9c6dcd7300e6fed9b68592e139a3d4715b3ea13f05fff603e9139f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $122K on July 15 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-15-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $120K on July 15 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-15-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 0.306619 | bitcoin-price-july-17-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $119K and $120K on July 17 at 5PM ET? | 74,051,402 | 74,236,099 |
ffc498748aaf24b1f1d69a0147383004a927553f | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x52fd784a2c86dc6f8755c83aa86a4566f49785f2ef5a2d2ef9f799a6adae665e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $120K on July 15 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-15-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120K and $121K on July 15 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-15-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 0 | solana-above-170-on-july-18 | Solana above $170 on July 18? | 74,051,402 | 74,236,099 |
f8179f34032695981bc1042457573ca95fe27ced | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xdfcf55822343e5cb0adf171378ac93fe59ac970a16166a73bd2e404ce4f8eea2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120K and $121K on July 15 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-15-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Leo Margets win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-3000-on-july-18 | Ethereum above $3,000 on July 18? | 74,051,402 | 74,236,100 |
220cfdce3167670b45f568152d6a264993cd2913 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x1787762c7169a1c1863044c82cbea69008b605414c41a5acae974f3328c4f05b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leo Margets win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luka Bojovic win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 0.672066 | bitcoin-price-july-17-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $118K on July 17 at 5PM ET? | 74,051,402 | 74,674,693 |
7a893dfd6d1810fe06bc3c231343986751b9a504 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x2e898d8bc9d2660fc16d2cc70496dd705448a5767f846a52f4b145f4513c4048 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luka Bojovic win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Adam Hendrix win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.18748456154796211... | no | 0.254247 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18? | 74,051,402 | 74,674,693 |
2d7cf94661b3c971e30828b18d9bc5911beaf710 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x812d8819cda5c57e824719de0381d8e207a45b5b71da31a6425f6c2f181a3fc4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Adam Hendrix win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.18748456154796211
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 0.153695 | fed-decision-in-july | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | 74,051,402 | 74,674,695 |
36eb335bdbee8f2796b56b61efdceb8321fefc4d | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xa4658e1a3b3252197a7f0dcf02ffdbdd76883259c3fe92c01c5f5f8d30eb7186 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on July 16? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ethereum b... | no | 0.103314 | ethereum-price-on-july-21 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3300 on July 21? | 74,051,402 | 74,674,696 |
4a0ca0d029f715df326e98c714f4dc43cce9baef | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x2b11b4f8ead0ade7aaf791d2176c8c07f3cd5e8e8feac93eae0593e6a62d5bc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on July 16? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on July 16? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pric... | ficovich | 0 | atp-los-cabos-halys-vs-ficovich | ATP Los Cabos: Halys vs. Ficovich | 74,051,403 | 74,051,403 |
e5f9af192af269f591bbc699322c506f1f5bdef8 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x2e4fc7e1a5d62560959f526d29398f093fbed907c0d50e100a9ffbf6e765c261 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on July 16? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on July 16? | Event: solana-price-on-july-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pric... | no | 0 | what-price-will-xrp-hit-in-july | Will XRP reach $3.2 in July? | 74,051,403 | 74,051,403 |
29c1297143199d20ed523e7e500ef7f21320dd46 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x6a8c775d3a7ab901a5c4595dbc33478d654dc3b293be2b80fd64500cabbfcc37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on July 16? | Event: solana-price-on-july-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be greater than $170 on July 16? | Event: solana-price-on-july-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.29511164755582375
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 0.51918 | fed-decision-in-october | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | 74,051,403 | 74,051,403 |
3d1a06ade26eb6366928e695b5e7991626df99f3 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x829850f68ce1595cb69b948c1bf413505909bd75aa2a621324d0777b849d74fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be greater than $170 on July 16? | Event: solana-price-on-july-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.29511164755582375
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on July 16? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.94422097076... | no | 0 | what-price-will-solana-hit-before-2026 | Will Solana dip to $130 before 2026? | 74,051,403 | 74,051,403 |
703d1ccc0d20b260ac803a94506e9cdf8bf54add | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on July 16? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9442209707696433
2. Question: Will Norway win the UEFA Women's Euro? | Event: uefa-womens-euro-2025-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Braxto... | yes | 0.741836 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025 | Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | 74,051,403 | 74,084,017 |
93153e576074f20b5b840628890393e387509766 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x62e939fbcb26aee4f172520444ef43a83adf3ea6155e2ae5d0871c13accdf21b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Norway win the UEFA Women's Euro? | Event: uefa-womens-euro-2025-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Braxton Dunaway win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kenny Hallaert win ... | no | 0 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-july | Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? | 74,051,403 | 74,084,019 |
f89c388849387b090857c2b060782cca1a17eb06 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x6b207cd2a1d82c993fdcc6c232c1f1ea93e85b1845dd58441b16e2a8b7ff4d35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Braxton Dunaway win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kenny Hallaert win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 0.472716 | bitcoin-price-on-july-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 18? | 74,051,403 | 74,236,099 |
fec50a256317f6353acaad13b594d063c5902430 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x6c3d5fba5442f3e725eb89b7cffcc341ca3105cddaac09c1e4bc8e7010f0fe40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kenny Hallaert win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-16-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 0.717415 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | 74,051,403 | 74,248,837 |
961c7d30f017516d21ada2e95b76e0900af421cf | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xcdf1c0ea53868e1cb5926525bd94bc172ddccb174e6995e7ae89f0866dd378b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-16-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | Event: freestyle-chess-lands-in-las-vegas | Choice... | yes | 0.491848 | largest-company-end-of-july | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 74,051,403 | 74,674,692 |
133d222d83d2ccd75546606bb8d0f2728c8d9b60 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x1567abf0b9cb1bde9fe5f148548fc33fa107861b6ad6c6248792ec4d50178805 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | Event: freestyle-chess-lands-in-las-vegas | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-16-5pm-et | Choice... | yes | 0.428831 | us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025 | Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 2% and 1%? | 74,051,403 | 74,674,695 |
784ea764dab6077b1a675cf1692b93f2934cbf8d | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x3ffdc36364e882c5991ad46b70a89948b0f79c7e8b1d7fc597aae9018dcf9ae8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3698630136986301
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $116K on July 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | freestyle-chess-lands-in-las-vegas | Will Wesley So win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | 74,072,084 | 74,072,084 |
07a0f814221e7af153cdcc7b0ee3ccc21c686f07 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xb43ab85be4a29318f1a1abed175e78b01ee8ce8bf33c6d3373a1a12580b0e909 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $116K on July 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8564950653507603
2. Question: Ethereum all time high before 2026? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | freestyle-chess-lands-in-las-vegas | Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | 74,072,084 | 74,072,084 |
6f02638e5fe276019919adf0cb517b4626bc8d73 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x273ca05dd1713fcb5fbf2a69b1dbbc1dda25396dd26c42ec820d5a9f659a2702 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high before 2026? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: 2nd-place-in-new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.20647231880181866
... | no | 0.447247 | freestyle-chess-lands-in-las-vegas | Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | 74,072,084 | 74,236,100 |
cb81241d1e79a686c5ca97f92acced2bb7d8ea12 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x0d09f8cb4ac601074c02828328a893fdab030ece3ca682faaef89d82c43daec2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: 2nd-place-in-new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.20647231880181866
2. Question: Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choi... | no | 0 | fed-decision-in-july | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | 74,072,104 | 74,072,104 |
95567a8a750da497a8daa95f292043a2364d5250 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x846ce700a217ec7b75b8d078450f7e88eb5f44c76c12ae448ca10039ef4412b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17572892040977148
2. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3700 in July? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 0.654488 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 74,072,104 | 74,072,104 |
10a1cd47407ad991ee4917ae15f178b1c18fb270 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x3d942f2e0cf53bfa011093df593ec0389e17c8f0df527f2d20ff5fb69cdac42d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3700 in July? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7522046498068654
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin b... | yes | 0.161541 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? | 74,072,104 | 74,236,099 |
8bc5036143775dfd21efe2cd7cd1c9a20f201fce | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x0c6c5cb8db69bd0927e05bf415f57fa37391951396cdba1f1b6a95e8b8a03f1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7522046498068654
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $120K on July 17 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-17-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.443073811931243... | no | 0.186505 | esports-world-cup-league-of-legends | Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | 74,072,104 | 74,236,100 |
e4dc494f2f239a97b0fc82f6b1f6759845f99f39 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x29d136ce611657cc2dc561762ae91fe96f2bb6edf13ac5865abdfeac45c3dc89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $120K on July 17 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-17-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.4430738119312437
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.258505977173148... | no | 0.089364 | bitcoin-price-on-july-23 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $121K on July 23? | 74,072,104 | 74,355,138 |
735cf4bd89e807ee3ab989537e4874da9e147751 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xf873c105e5f8c8fb592a8fe501a2c187894940fb81c6c68f9d1dded07ce1de3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2585059771731487
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on July 18? | Event: solana-price-on-july-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.1507254164427727
3. Question: No... | no | 0.186505 | bitcoin-price-on-july-21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $120K on July 21? | 74,072,104 | 74,674,695 |
17593ff3de592880aa1964258a0c3fac9ac6b933 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xc9f14cb164854c040ec5e9c165f5a4f4edd2aa749a29e9b3ac07f5ad29065204 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on July 18? | Event: solana-price-on-july-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.1507254164427727
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.27637664717689153... | no | 1 | esports-world-cup-league-of-legends | Will Hanwha Life Esports win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | 74,083,994 | 74,083,994 |
c96e04279f787817159e1e47d7abf551dc49015c | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x050b33034ece678624fe2e8bbafdccb59eaa25feb57f6926f287b627ef953f1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.27637664717689153
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.350... | no | 0 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-july-14-21 | Will Ethereum reach $3600 July 14–20? | 74,084,017 | 74,084,017 |
5fd7347f4a5e5763310bb3c7907a041a9e5b5e9e | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x9aa6086535a4b3145e9f7378dd58a7a8c30c4b15bd4fe17eb6990817f5cd3cd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.350522511964059
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $150 on July 18? | Event: solana-price-on-july-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3105699221692... | yes | 0.22467 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | 74,084,017 | 74,084,017 |
f3350f3147892234660c9b9eb86f79f738447bb4 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xe84b1fdc087f4153ebf15cfc07f065dd5a66f3caf370b4547ea8e02100be95be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $150 on July 18? | Event: solana-price-on-july-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3105699221692192
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $119K and $120K on July 17 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-17-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.306... | no | 0 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | 74,084,017 | 74,084,017 |
648eb6e824491a09d9e8cad6e7b0cdc4fa998de9 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x1372498e93821a273fc48f50c371402c8cd0c0287540de26e4555d8292b44d4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $119K and $120K on July 17 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-17-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3066188197767145
2. Question: Solana above $170 on July 18? | Event: solana-above-170-on-july-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum a... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-118000-on-july-18 | Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 18? | 74,084,017 | 74,137,338 |
d21b5fc3fea82d785462a815292263c88d8c4f4c | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xdf3b5b626480b9e0b7a56c673ebb171c03edd273645024c3efbb9d8afd56ffe7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $170 on July 18? | Event: solana-above-170-on-july-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $3,000 on July 18? | Event: ethereum-above-3000-on-july-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $118K on July 17 at 5PM E... | yes | 0.370743 | bitcoin-price-on-july-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 18? | 74,084,017 | 74,137,338 |
b6047ef3a330b1325342f9f44866d7b1d4858e96 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x57d87171f7e178e954f8a2aa4d816b0455d8a255c4fd4b702939721d36937035 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,000 on July 18? | Event: ethereum-above-3000-on-july-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $118K on July 17 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-17-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6720661927514275
3. Question: Will Elon ... | yes | 0.051439 | bitcoin-price-on-july-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 18? | 74,084,017 | 74,236,102 |
fc79e49bca51bf7c058b6ecdd33801f814f29799 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xb51a50d20f2a9958d1f6b8708444444eb40de531e157abd74b59d7da20156ed6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $118K on July 17 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-17-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6720661927514275
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.25424688561721404... | yes | 0.598818 | nyc-mayoral-dem-primary-mamdani-mov | Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary? | 74,084,017 | 74,674,695 |
3255829d8a273fb1e0422152ad646da998a15c40 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x085c0962ed75606e204a7f863f21e9569647536cd674a01cb73af1235d7a8c71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.25424688561721404
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.15369549530976187
3. Questi... | no | 0.339759 | nyc-mayoral-dem-primary-mamdani-mov | Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary? | 74,084,017 | 74,674,696 |
20f0760ff2164fc58586232ca2ef83fb02fa16d6 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x1b8547d064f8b849259c7f4e923775916b831b114066279a4f9e41bafd9d1fc4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.15369549530976187
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3300 on July 21? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.1033138401559... | no | 0 | jerome-powell-out-as-fed-chair-by-july-31 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31? | 74,084,018 | 74,084,018 |
004b44e683f7c4b6a5c462135086e14ae87d396f | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x3009c420c047ad2b255c456f1e9dd9a229ca2c423bf2d494d0d13b58d7be3f94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3300 on July 21? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10331384015594541
2. Question: ATP Los Cabos: Halys vs. Ficovich | Event: atp-los-cabos-halys-vs-ficovich | Choice: ficovich | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will XRP re... | no | 0 | xrp-above-2pt70-on-july-18 | XRP above $2.70 on July 18? | 74,084,018 | 74,084,018 |
0005b629b950a3b62055122489304813cceccab1 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x53f82bd52566e30ae3f8131cb92095dd92ecdf2b0204af0edc226ee194e923fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: ATP Los Cabos: Halys vs. Ficovich | Event: atp-los-cabos-halys-vs-ficovich | Choice: ficovich | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will XRP reach $3.2 in July? | Event: what-price-will-xrp-hit-in-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October... | yes | 0.271616 | fed-decision-in-october | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | 74,084,018 | 74,084,018 |
f0d7c96e863aba412390aa793e2c7b57fc9042b4 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x6ef34d5c7937cb8a1eb22234ddce8fe3eb1595e1f35c7d4f2101c58f3506e580 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will XRP reach $3.2 in July? | Event: what-price-will-xrp-hit-in-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5191796429927839
3. Question: Will Solana dip to... | yes | 0.511716 | fed-decision-in-october | No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | 74,084,018 | 74,084,018 |
ff2d2fa212e43c11c69497bdc7914ebcf5972b38 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x820c249986044ad3ab808a4fb401f355a97eeac28d1e905ea37c849700e9cfd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5191796429927839
2. Question: Will Solana dip to $130 before 2026? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 0.820433 | how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2025 | Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? | 74,084,018 | 74,084,018 |
19217ad1165f0202585ea8c890fb6950ae4744a5 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x88d0e1581dff91928fa3cea394193fe7e8ab167fe62120dbb1b07c22614c3ba6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Solana dip to $130 before 2026? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7418364499023165
3. Question: Will... | no | 0 | what-price-will-solana-hit-in-july-717 | Will Solana reach $200 in July? | 74,084,018 | 74,084,018 |
0a1e8543f4035cc8b219ea236eb4da9b48d21d04 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xa76a7ecac374e7e37f9dd7eacda947793f23d2886ffe0dc28fcc081a7f61423c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7418364499023165
2. Question: Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the... | no | 0.34812 | btc-above-100k-till-2025-end | Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? | 74,084,018 | 74,084,018 |
ffb3876934cb03f4bf798c0eb6f544852281e1d6 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xc1c271109be3809fdefe0352d8291b7fc4739cda5d993d535865b3c67275a3b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4727164887307236
3. Question: Fed decreases ... | no | 0 | xrp-all-time-high-before-2026 | XRP all time high before 2026? | 74,084,018 | 74,084,018 |
90fcb20a195c7fd4596762cb76e2b2bb3448d299 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xf471b6ab190a369e0edde1ec1504b40752bec3726021b21d9b1092adac50a01f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4727164887307236
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7174... | no | 0 | solana-above-180-on-july-21 | Solana above $180 on July 21? | 74,084,018 | 74,084,018 |
a432794eba733e766e0369575d4932a7bcba0f5c | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xfb99de18bbece8c143fd87174aed5146c253351848ecc3cc451afdf867cc32b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7174152419588525
2. Question: Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-july | Choice: yes ... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-3000-on-july-21 | Ethereum above $3,000 on July 21? | 74,084,018 | 74,084,018 |
63daf9aaf0b1d00b7c1365334aea5e36c19c88ac | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xf2d8d03391c9c5c24dbe281fcca9e7587734b0f2f453ab69387940536d1ae70e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.49184797134762387
2. Question: Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 2% and 1%? | Event: us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.42... | yes | 0.63664 | ethereum-price-on-july-18 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 18? | 74,084,018 | 74,137,338 |
8ccaf07bbb42c60728205504f05dd9169ee590f3 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x5ac41b9bbfba5c2d0f1d6e81c04ca225ea27f969e6a62962e20e38a15cb4c29d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 2% and 1%? | Event: us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4288310115081769
2. Question: Will Wesley So win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | Event: freestyle-chess-lands-in-las-vegas | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | yes | 0.099901 | ethereum-price-on-july-18 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2900 and $3000 on July 18? | 74,084,018 | 74,236,100 |
997d51d360d43257a437852dccce414518b88382 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xf87889d067dec3cd1c49698a24c09b7ded214a33711f71eb7cf3458f1ad4e3d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wesley So win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | Event: freestyle-chess-lands-in-las-vegas | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | Event: freestyle-chess-lands-in-las-vegas | Choi... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-120000-on-july-23 | Bitcoin above $120,000 on July 23? | 74,084,018 | 74,355,138 |
ca020a69686ea01c8a19db3fc61e4aded6503e7b | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x058d117a82c5d6249fa2f0e6f6437825ed0a6ad73ee552fb7e0fe825904167b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | Event: freestyle-chess-lands-in-las-vegas | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | Event: freestyle-chess-lands-in-las-vegas |... | yes | 0.967227 | ethereum-price-on-july-18 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3000 and $3100 on July 18? | 74,084,018 | 74,674,691 |
6ffddf266b8e31d41505df87bb2ed1cec26ef20f | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xa8c893360fb69cc6261bcb142b05055689a9c2329f6e3bf3a54932c2ab1ead01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | Event: freestyle-chess-lands-in-las-vegas | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.447246525990736
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-july | Choice: no | C... | no | 0.970277 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | 74,084,018 | 74,674,691 |
6331e0c15295b755f2290aa11be2306deb49d1b0 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xe7cf0f65ef5ba1fa9c89d80aa44061de833c0047a8f7582a5c8d37c7d1b668e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6544877981524886
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 0.464266 | ethereum-price-on-july-23 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3100 on July 23? | 74,084,018 | 74,674,695 |
0020a0667b4a3e05ef2f74c778381b6cf3634c3a | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xde73d22df7782a7736cc5d6a3750cfd36f5a47c94c867f657ec955a0181a3894 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6544877981524886
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.16154108421411523
3. Question:... | yes | 0.3125 | july-inflation-annual-462 | Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in July? | 74,084,018 | 75,172,383 |
0f815b34a0c211bf2f4e46a39d107e0a8212d38a | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x7e1563bc5253dbf9aa5d8a9a6527d578294155d8ef3add92854c565be741f31a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.16154108421411523
2. Question: Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-league-of-legends | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.1865... | no | 0.845597 | what-price-will-solana-hit-before-2026 | Will Solana dip to $140 before 2026? | 74,084,019 | 74,084,019 |
e9db445033b2897d45f8f5657277312e921d90dc | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xdab6eabf31fcde6a2daf55d074af0b0f56057073d67b76bd19201155e83d9ff3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-league-of-legends | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.18650541056651815
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $121K on July 23? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-23 | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 0 | 2nd-place-in-new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 74,084,019 | 74,084,019 |
139f9031e4c104293880cf71d760acce7dce1c72 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xe87b10afe191706bb36b22526b65983e2a88a12ccce36827e857e16791973493 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $121K on July 23? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.08936376881981545
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $120K on July 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.18650541056651815
3... | yes | 0.104274 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | 74,084,019 | 74,084,019 |
7bbddcd2581f533e11e139a6422c7dddbc2fbe64 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xebddfcf7b4401dade8b4031770a1ab942b01854f3bed453d5df9425cd9f211a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $120K on July 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.18650541056651815
2. Question: Will Hanwha Life Esports win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-league-of-legends | Choice: n... | no | 0.940636 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 74,084,019 | 74,084,019 |
acde0da505ab406a3fb9a5b3d99af326410e6b6e | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xec8a7aafd52829e7d7088b06fe1381c8910c283dbf35ba51ec5a2488d9087d55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hanwha Life Esports win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-league-of-legends | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3600 July 14–20? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-july-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
... | no | 0 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-july-14-21 | Will Ethereum dip to $2700 July 14–20? | 74,084,019 | 74,084,019 |
a45ab0d4601d4f3520cc56ba270d083ab9436755 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x3794691b634aa4fed46058c8e6d0912726480b40e9b241c647da0431f21eddcc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3600 July 14–20? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-july-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.22466960352422907
3. Question: Will B... | yes | 0.637636 | 2025-open-championship-winner | Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Open Championship? | 74,084,019 | 74,206,643 |
9934f38c477cc5d728d5a82637a05ae29bcabe8b | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xd6cebd4e3e64dd9ca1bdb8de3ccafea4aae83ed7ca639d7e7fa6976fab1701ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.22466960352422907
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question... | no | 0 | will-justin-biebers-album-swag-have-over-150k-sales-in-its-first-week | Will Justin Bieber's album 'SWAG' have over 150k sales in its first week? | 74,084,019 | 74,236,100 |
52af246fdcee6ec5aab62b1e5d9768e63cbb48d9 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x329d674e4c403e493c98f56965daf73758be417e12a175c7c2b71c3b6e2550cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-118000-on-july-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be betwe... | yes | 0.925413 | bitcoin-price-on-july-21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $123K on July 21? | 74,084,019 | 74,674,693 |
6f746d9bd97cbfbe221204283290d13ff0e7296e | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x3619333c56ec53413c25a0f21bf1bd64f2c5c4d0dcf006d8c45ea62ad9ae4d1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-118000-on-july-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.37074340527577937
3. Question: Will the pric... | no | 0 | which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august | Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July? | 74,084,019 | 74,674,696 |
166eaa9d631cbf7685d04be0b6f03af3d151b54e | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x0d249dcf32df59ebc550a299bddb19c0c030714ef4a8c25bf51ad5b1c9db65c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.37074340527577937
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0514... | no | 0 | trump-x-epstein-files-made-public-by-july-31-481 | Trump x Epstein files made public by July 31? | 74,084,020 | 74,084,020 |
aa501904bbea4afc997df2ab37c365a0c37bc5e4 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x2393ed0b0fdc450054c7b9071907eca75cf4fc36e385adf4a0a5f99ee62243e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.05143853530950305
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary? | Event: nyc-mayoral... | yes | 0.72129 | how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2025 | Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? | 74,084,020 | 74,084,020 |
bd555a3b9af1dd4919c5bee5b7b27f9065d510f2 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x4312fc012e315252ece189e1b0f77dfdedf6b27e06bd2fbffb9ee8c9ff023601 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary? | Event: nyc-mayoral-dem-primary-mamdani-mov | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5988183161004431
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the N... | yes | 0.770521 | will-andrew-cuomo-drop-out-155 | Will Andrew Cuomo drop out? | 74,084,020 | 74,084,020 |
91d748fc84751140228fd4daf3aa6951c6e65cf4 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x6236a2dbdb5eb6e7a5d4577f02677a11c3f3067e6aa341ba367bfb64340a53c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary? | Event: nyc-mayoral-dem-primary-mamdani-mov | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3397590361445783
2. Question: Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31? | Event: jerome-powell-out-as-... | yes | 0.406742 | will-the-next-james-bond-be-british | Will the next James Bond be British? | 74,084,020 | 74,084,020 |
c0d041e564aefeaf08998862a9cae33fd7cd2179 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x79342e0d3cce6f59378a6a016531546b773490b30ce51700265bc13e6651bd72 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31? | Event: jerome-powell-out-as-fed-chair-by-july-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP above $2.70 on July 18? | Event: xrp-above-2pt70-on-july-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after Oc... | yes | 0.901667 | will-ghislaine-maxwell-testify-before-congress-in-2025 | Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025? | 74,084,020 | 74,084,020 |
871e635cd033460bee07732ad93c655c6b48e13c | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xd6e0317cee513cc3afdc1954ac576b241ad2287536e88b17fd3a77b4c3d0976e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP above $2.70 on July 18? | Event: xrp-above-2pt70-on-july-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.27161572052401745
3. Question: No change in Fed interes... | yes | 0.950268 | fed-decision-in-october | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | 74,084,020 | 74,084,020 |
f1f0c0ad20698135a918c8183b9d6f5a38eae436 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xeeb92ddd77d671d1f9ea1f5727208d1fa91896a6d1f657fdcd7c9d578fe5c46c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.27161572052401745
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.511715797... | yes | 0.947958 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2025 | Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | 74,084,020 | 74,084,020 |
94a163aca9013e6077e0ea5ae0e1ffe223830c98 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xfa48a99317daef1654d5b03e30557c4222f276657275628d9475e141c64b545d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5117157974300831
2. Question: Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? | Event: how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.820433436532507... | yes | 0.782531 | us-recession-in-2025 | US recession in 2025? | 74,084,020 | 74,084,020 |
09a12c932743303de625a9911d30785617614d30 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xff53e66fc87a945162d785fe3e9fea4e5f24189c8d04f194386004d1dc2249c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? | Event: how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8204334365325078
2. Question: Will Solana reach $200 in July? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-july-717 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Bitcoin d... | yes | 0.981179 | ethereum-price-on-july-21 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3000 and $3100 on July 21? | 74,084,020 | 74,674,692 |
1ba3bad7fda800f22fa46503afc851f23b47aa35 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x52dde4a6bf4493e06461504e2651dc090b0e11bcdc6d486f727b0272d8e8880e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Solana reach $200 in July? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-july-717 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? | Event: btc-above-100k-till-2025-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3481195756991321
3. Question: XRP all time high before 2026?... | no | 0.707373 | us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025 | Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%? | 74,084,020 | 74,674,695 |
6bdbe9dff276264c7e9409ab36e82e82c8d25e47 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x9e883365bd8b2620b35812309d093bc62322bdd2ccdb4404762da6bb7cf029ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? | Event: btc-above-100k-till-2025-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3481195756991321
2. Question: XRP all time high before 2026? | Event: xrp-all-time-high-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana above $180 on July 21? | Event: s... | no | 0.842433 | bank-of-canada-interest-rates-july-2025 | Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the July meeting? | 74,084,020 | 74,674,695 |
0f0318fb8174c69a33a176ba2a0c210ffbdab323 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x6793a1620680e4111c87c4c126a2e53a3d7a61f4fcb03ae1dd9dc250fbc92e74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP all time high before 2026? | Event: xrp-all-time-high-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana above $180 on July 21? | Event: solana-above-180-on-july-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $3,000 on July 21? | Event: ethereum-above-3000-on-ju... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-17-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 17 at 5PM ET? | 74,096,171 | 74,096,171 |
d04a7d4aea6b9d9154672a5e69bf8098229e218f | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x6cd51048b16155697b0a8a60b1a51be53095f564b101daadd7660edc55634b67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $180 on July 21? | Event: solana-above-180-on-july-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $3,000 on July 21? | Event: ethereum-above-3000-on-july-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 18? | E... | no | 1 | uefa-womens-euro-2025-winner | Will Sweden win the UEFA Women's Euro? | 74,096,171 | 74,096,171 |
a6079067e72cac7d0e160c567e144d1c643b0f0f | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xd88ada4ca464dc49b33165351a8080340532340b53ba195226a225f9c638f022 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,000 on July 21? | Event: ethereum-above-3000-on-july-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 18? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6366396761133604
3. Question: Will the price of E... | no | 1 | freestyle-chess-lands-in-las-vegas | Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | 74,096,171 | 74,096,171 |
8ac1d947c7304a5ed5e8e56e29bafbf305c18605 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x0de7d3a8cb29764fc91c5941a00e1cf010b9ee0f2f4b0cd82a9e0737ffed0c96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 18? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6366396761133604
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2900 and $3000 on July 18? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.099901... | yes | 0.837325 | jerome-powell-out-as-fed-chair-by-august-31 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? | 74,096,181 | 74,096,181 |
d41bab6d4c0cb8aa2cd560e3642feb93ad997893 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x43a0e99dec7bb0c6ae5a9166cf6df932a36ca721eb62f673eda5ea87232bc8f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2900 and $3000 on July 18? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09990108803165183
2. Question: Bitcoin above $120,000 on July 23? | Event: bitcoin-above-120000-on-july-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the pr... | no | 0 | israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-august | Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? | 74,096,181 | 74,674,665 |
1f5d141b9597d2e0e3eccccd11833c677d09e9b1 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x9ec056d5b1c7793835a46928ca3db97f1df589765e099964b04215d12db65250 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $120,000 on July 23? | Event: bitcoin-above-120000-on-july-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3000 and $3100 on July 18? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9672266593225007
3. Question: Will Google ... | yes | 0.8101 | bolivia-presidential-election | Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | 74,096,182 | 74,115,103 |
5b928ef5d9ee859e4c0fd12348ba08eaf637770c | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x3ebeb92cf02f58549d5d59454506c24b6fb94a761437ae76414f85e20c58bbfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3000 and $3100 on July 18? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9672266593225007
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9702... | no | 1 | freestyle-chess-lands-in-las-vegas | Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | 74,115,097 | 74,115,097 |
d7835d1471613cfefc4510c75c28473162e9fe9a | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xe21429995f258d650e37ee397e4942d0e7653a80e22c35a0ba85e6d591d0b8a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9702765257644049
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3100 on July 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.464265616207... | no | 1 | freestyle-chess-lands-in-las-vegas | Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | 74,115,097 | 74,115,097 |
7ded238d1cd6c2ae64157a13860cb7acca9f2fe6 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xea3d2ecb3879ce70c137a14be09e79f2f36b1540323f9115295d920e5476d341 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3100 on July 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4642656162070906
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in July? | Event: july-inflation-annual-462 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3125
3. Question: Will Sola... | no | 1 | freestyle-chess-lands-in-las-vegas | Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | 74,115,097 | 74,115,097 |
7420a4a8ccba1d5a463032a7bbdd7790460bde2b | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x42ef427d3b65855d71b0ad74a7cd6ec354b8fa0dc8e29a02562197459be976e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in July? | Event: july-inflation-annual-462 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3125
2. Question: Will Solana dip to $140 before 2026? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8455971049457177
3. Question: Will Eric Adams wi... | no | 0.807974 | largest-company-end-of-august | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | 74,115,103 | 74,115,103 |
31d8a6e725ae95a1ab3e5a082c32d0137ea62e1e | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x9973fb839f315ac4d046edc91b73e827cff7b298efe12488eba2d816ac257729 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Solana dip to $140 before 2026? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8455971049457177
2. Question: Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: 2nd-place-in-new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.... | no | 0 | israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-by-july-22 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22? | 74,115,103 | 74,115,103 |
1bcba4139158626eb90ca8aefb5075f3d32a0b63 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xb84b9521d5d93e6f86fb571f6a203dcb7e8c31972dda4d848c24f8a9e1b44488 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: 2nd-place-in-new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.1... | yes | 0.848348 | astronomer-divorce-parlay | Astronomer Divorce Parlay | 74,115,103 | 74,115,103 |
892f03a025d7b0057b3620597a33f0b28c0cd1b2 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xd627b2fcd48d7c6c36603c0c465c9907144b05693545b187b59663914240ff9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.10427350427350428
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9406363442... | no | 0.478079 | us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15 | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15? | 74,115,103 | 75,430,616 |
fe48f3c9a253b34fec33217fefd73bae9e6d6c0e | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x4abc8d6c1d6c9ed784c3cdf47074d34069075821e0c2d7bba09f4a68f4533b8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9406363442237882
2. Question: Will Ethereum dip to $2700 July 14–20? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-july-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sc... | no | 1 | freestyle-chess-lands-in-las-vegas | Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | 74,137,338 | 74,137,338 |
6b1ed0675c89513d5bea8b6bb494557c8acf193d | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x8494a3e803fc4ccc050af4c489fbe0ee77c047b4b337efb11b088bdb72bfbeec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum dip to $2700 July 14–20? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-july-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6376360808709176
3. Question: Will Ju... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18? | 74,137,338 | 74,137,338 |
899a879c3898f4658bdc1cd84b3e3032cd8e6341 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xbb954c7a0f753164dfe3b34e50bd2db75bf7db33a2550d05d2d98e9e36317cca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6376360808709176
2. Question: Will Justin Bieber's album 'SWAG' have over 150k sales in its first week? | Event: will-justin-biebers-album-swag-have-over-150k-sales-in-i... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 11–18? | 74,137,338 | 74,137,338 |
6db920dae1db43baf132d83f06ba78e4f00a5821 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xedfbec1376180f5fd1354f023631ec564f4632322391e4e1dc21532522200c0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Justin Bieber's album 'SWAG' have over 150k sales in its first week? | Event: will-justin-biebers-album-swag-have-over-150k-sales-in-its-first-week | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $123K on July 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-21 | ... | no | 1 | 2025-open-championship-winner | Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 Open Championship? | 74,137,338 | 74,137,338 |
16a13b42586f5809b882c50c7bbbbd5dda222542 | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xeea9427f8f7f73c0b21e14baba2f8f4dcebc8f6e728a49d725bd4cd3a6c4a96f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $123K on July 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9254127358490566
2. Question: Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July? | Event: which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-be... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 18? | 74,137,338 | 74,137,338 |
bfecdadabfff3f7fe6ab4c7b242a43f43a886a2e | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0xf3bdda6125cd69b93ed728ec62ebb512592154132aea5b2de7c87428b5b1712d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July? | Event: which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump x Epstein files made public by July 31? | Event: trump-x-epstein-files-made-public-by-july-3... | no | 1 | freestyle-chess-lands-in-las-vegas | Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | 74,137,338 | 74,137,338 |
bfdd44e078a2b24f1637a21b92d23dba41476f1c | 0x39d119256039e80fc73c740179dcea159a075129 | 0x7590f51f00a87c7bc60cf740f43b1ca4a97c5e9ad583cf4cf94379508d0a067b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump x Epstein files made public by July 31? | Event: trump-x-epstein-files-made-public-by-july-31-481 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? | Event: how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7212903225806452
3. Q... | no | 0 | andy-byron-out-as-astronomer-ceo-by-next-friday | Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? | 74,137,345 | 74,137,345 |
c0e1121fa009fa7c179d96052a96f8cd5e8a49b8 | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0xdb7332a0976ea1a0482cd66216de74eed8fb0d89c271ec90ebb335b1f9eff15c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | up | 0.000133 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | 77,590,608 | 77,590,608 |
ad45ec99fe04d5a8fafa87c5a723e36db1912f8a | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0xcadf56929912b90576c71dfde4639a217b83ee9126f9387f7122f9e534ec6ffc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for... | down | 0.000303 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | 77,594,135 | 77,594,135 |
7f73cd62290ec9b879c8eca6136021fdffd3d560 | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0xd02245c962d6b9ad4a8ccfd6b877b394603149e98cc0ad5e98eb962c58366b5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
Tar... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-13-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 12PM ET | 77,634,709 | 77,634,709 |
baf85c2cb74211327c72a6ecd43f256b0478d4c3 | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0x389e54624fcbc58bd6645c0db45e556cd99d17754ab6db0a3ba9041b4aff5e84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 11AM ET | 77,678,209 | 77,678,209 |
68a021ba7ae0bd98d94b40da5d6cf872c0066dfb | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0x15cdf6955ed8edf7db16392ce1b5f5502fc7bcb5fea4d3d68d6a0c8153310a5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 1AM ET | 77,702,555 | 77,702,555 |
341f688fd4ac6b187a0e55920ad1348f748a4264 | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0xc0d231946c1af02b480056d24a5e8830726814b82df0b219a2585b7926728734 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 2AM ET | 77,704,538 | 77,704,538 |
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