sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
b06f001e921f9b22ed61fd32f6dd3425fbdf6684 | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0xa2e13c999c766b616f01c3835b52197a976125f4867a37156d513382f0d212f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | down | 0.000105 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 4AM ET | 77,708,907 | 77,708,907 |
933377eb4e9fa3a352da1edf9ef2d8316c3a4944 | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0x8953571eaaa8c0fad57bcde315b88cf101276b36de816a21d334853b5bcd81b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5AM ET | 77,708,919 | 77,708,919 |
8ba849aa9e787606ff2dd479a855f27b87c33897 | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0x2d9c37c4822ae4269812038a367bd0f8974bedf4697dcc95a83af854abe4902f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8AM ET | 77,714,702 | 77,714,702 |
cd0ae935a8a98ac73bfab48db8e85d072d89577c | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0xa22178794a40048752a992f31b6ad575598f4fcdaad61a8c2b89cb5abd57fd50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 10AM ET | 77,718,938 | 77,718,938 |
19a3143b5c07bb70e72cba6c3304501e49052d33 | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0x031c6ef23aaff957f4fe839c9bea8f8543a9e2860231cc97b9b0fb1b874299aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | down | 0.000026 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | 77,720,508 | 77,720,508 |
54d568b5dab77cfe27032e3fc945907e45d90726 | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0x559c977fec093fcfc902a112f3087307310961d00d38ffb5f83668f38f7661c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | up | 0.000016 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11PM ET | 77,743,202 | 77,743,202 |
c7411af1a3c797cc4be92f29d26ef570b7a19144 | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0xfb117c0a08df836f43bdb1b9ac3beff938f45385e9661ab85a6567c3eecf84f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | down | 0.000148 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-16-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 1AM ET | 77,745,157 | 77,745,157 |
e7c7004aea4e693959967bfbf4c4fb1ee96c5620 | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0x63f9e3388756733090c0afc27656f7a1424cd90c4b7cf11d8e3184e1582c6b36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | down | 0.145635 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-16-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 2AM ET | 77,746,906 | 77,746,906 |
1e704e8d5caf2f088cccb2206206672e174b8a12 | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0x7c208efb3abeee5b4cee597427a5e56ce98af07280f15a3d3e88dfc5d1b60495 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-16-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 4AM ET | 77,752,005 | 77,752,005 |
7235a65af55807d16f716aeef37829c8c2b3382a | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0x45407098a41a3574772f90523eaf61d9e344501dd5c370d50c97655dee6d35d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | down | 0.000009 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-16-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 6AM ET | 77,754,142 | 77,754,142 |
ff521abbe22fe97e18e96d69be30a55756bbe302 | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0xce3a3c3230a712144135aedff6cb4097d56ce1b26987733261ea08425ec79de4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-17-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 10AM ET | 77,806,049 | 77,806,049 |
1d5d4cea2780d7c89493835e2ba73236ba9066a4 | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0x2a80d7e4a0e1f4b312023efe4818ef8d850f9c20083c3c0444582ec0ce80bc24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-17-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 11AM ET | 77,806,063 | 77,806,063 |
2312ea35986c23488071f74d8484845fd4da4bfb | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0xf936f550332b8881640a2cb94f26471390f50dd0edd4963a1529df60026679c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-18-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 4AM ET | 77,837,541 | 77,837,541 |
a09fda08b1e78e1f0e068b57f8a19e7919d08703 | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0xcb2869c3cfbfbf8fad66dfb401c25df42bf2a017954573450b9c699e0beee0c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-18-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10AM ET | 77,848,221 | 77,848,221 |
548dd15840857cb3f69dfcce44f1022ccf259408 | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0x8122986d1892f414d77a4b22e5eb5f8b33a7eb7b475212153c1a129321667956 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-18-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12PM ET | 77,851,413 | 77,851,413 |
8c8f152c32a25419b518dc945aaeaa93b569a30e | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0x40d6037cab2b6ac1f3b58d09f427441f3f115fcebcdfb9c09ae7323a8ffda750 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | 77,877,707 | 77,877,707 |
2c97e4a0447e0452d4b17762b616cb9ed75efcb2 | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0x1006b5c4fd45c173e3e17107477e2cb903fe02b76937921fc42b676568b24299 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | down | 0.000005 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | 77,878,240 | 77,878,240 |
70e3cc22556b6fa314c1adbc054064af2ec62649 | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0x83c0b471483a9e4260f4fd9ba72e65f93a5700c9df98ef8e7bceafe5caf70c08 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | up | 0.000227 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5AM ET | 77,882,870 | 77,882,870 |
81d872d76680c0590045b0d20be87b95342b39d7 | 0x39eefd87d42211cb18db4c3beed556ea69c4c244 | 0x62f84b540613282221ec0a10642ee37f9ecb6ee1fc0a6ee262effb53b3f2a755 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013335111348179759
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00030325860456695123
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10AM ET | 77,891,979 | 77,891,979 |
bbfc4210c9a0b6eb3b43f49c5af1b0a9ff2d0d90 | 0x3a18eda936f2c8fce19a9e9434ae1436d2c69d39 | 0x19c01f1f32c93f71fd8a12deac61cab575e239eaf595a38dbafa5d76d5b44f26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election?
Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | 64,178,992 | 64,178,992 |
ef5f1f9b805d80905e873d04b1242597a189c0b1 | 0x3a18eda936f2c8fce19a9e9434ae1436d2c69d39 | 0x23df7c359c5641fceed71bd62edda6a4a4997b66566d137a5e639434c8444b2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154
Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election
Predict ... | yes | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 | 64,178,992 | 64,178,992 |
6b6e54970bc1999f5a4a350d61cf1827ba8e469a | 0x3a18eda936f2c8fce19a9e9434ae1436d2c69d39 | 0x28f66bed374181b08fa7b7eead51d69a4a1af868f8e7ff6944c649822d76aa03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 5-14 | 64,178,992 | 64,178,992 |
42a3b527faba083ab89d3dd65f051e52055991b9 | 0x3a18eda936f2c8fce19a9e9434ae1436d2c69d39 | 0x547171b466f04230c9a6bfd13a71fb24de3442e10ce5cea95232d970f36fd5bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? | 64,178,992 | 64,178,992 |
d16f572e67ce773c8af024bf914220bba4a5b277 | 0x3a18eda936f2c8fce19a9e9434ae1436d2c69d39 | 0x768eb43d1b7a745e0df1bb6050ab54aa3975fbbde6e23f4aa04cb527f5ffed2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 1-4 | 64,178,992 | 64,178,992 |
bfbc960679c567ca0e3d45fe6f68b7250c12a7d6 | 0x3a18eda936f2c8fce19a9e9434ae1436d2c69d39 | 0x848a2388c956a70178e0f87e21cbee5c01b68789398a52fedc4fbf998c8b85d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | 4+ Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | 64,178,992 | 64,178,992 |
a04cd4918a0a5f4cf7b93be19f72afedefdd38c8 | 0x3a18eda936f2c8fce19a9e9434ae1436d2c69d39 | 0xb0a06b05d49947a302d0c3648add3b6d6660380de6bdb6b79f0007f18daf3adb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ | 64,178,992 | 64,178,992 |
f824b46a4a8e83477d4493d7491cf05a7e3ce773 | 0x3a18eda936f2c8fce19a9e9434ae1436d2c69d39 | 0xc6485bb7ea46d7bb89beb9c91e7572ecfc72a6273789496f78bc5e989e4d1638 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | no | 0.016983 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 64,178,992 | 64,178,992 |
694782a43b7273d3954e815021f40e5a162b0c70 | 0x3a18eda936f2c8fce19a9e9434ae1436d2c69d39 | 0xd007d71fd17b0913b9d7ff198f617caa96a9e4aab1bed7d6f9abd76bb17dd507 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 155-214 | 64,178,992 | 64,178,992 |
d1348f8240b1e3e026c5182bd6ca536b1e4a8e3d | 0x3a18eda936f2c8fce19a9e9434ae1436d2c69d39 | 0xff5c1e73e31ad495136fcafce90710a3a1771a96f07116db60aeaae095c0ec29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 215+ | 64,178,992 | 64,178,992 |
37a41252adcc050ba55d42a0ade38e9f1d08fbd3 | 0x3a18eda936f2c8fce19a9e9434ae1436d2c69d39 | 0x14a087f7b1b23b9a3c32799255edf18832d548302d6657efdba816a458a18d4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214 | 64,178,995 | 64,178,995 |
5cdf6e510db44357c50ee9ca33ad02a201f3abc4 | 0x3a18eda936f2c8fce19a9e9434ae1436d2c69d39 | 0x272461ac34da7a85f4c7f6cad291b10b9268061e5813cad8c9cb9897cf0d94a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 5-14 | 64,178,995 | 64,178,995 |
d027ee8308c86422393e6dc81ecb87696636cfc3 | 0x3a18eda936f2c8fce19a9e9434ae1436d2c69d39 | 0x475e0fd32b211c0cfe6755638efceba2373d01a7224c7750f77f978db104f639 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154 | 64,178,995 | 64,178,995 |
5e01eb851e397f960004dcadf84539aa490ff6c7 | 0x3a18eda936f2c8fce19a9e9434ae1436d2c69d39 | 0x8651d7d8b6f27328ad61fab52940f3e689c73695d622e193df138b19685da421 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34 | 64,178,995 | 64,178,995 |
330f816e7b301776ec04dbf56c444cd5321defe9 | 0x3a18eda936f2c8fce19a9e9434ae1436d2c69d39 | 0x9c9c47de9c871b6cfbae8956f3586f09ae131c44f73e478bc824c106489dd930 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4 | 64,178,995 | 64,178,995 |
955a2c331621e28ba1515eaf6093a2cc536a21f4 | 0x3a18eda936f2c8fce19a9e9434ae1436d2c69d39 | 0xbe3afc95f538c106696a2b76a1eb6e2191b622b224ae9d888343ade752c634f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34 | 64,178,995 | 64,178,995 |
b76e775f49ad2097a744fa07c191c9834b1e6daf | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x257444e22c041ff227168f39ed152faf2da67711fb2f6ce5504266511506f553 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,551,456 | 66,551,456 |
21280d931d275f3477a79b787e9c6f59c3aef534 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x7beb98acec87b36e03206d1147d57280e1831ead3894fab4ef2cff854c7fe7a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday?
Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday
Predict the user's choice an... | yes | 1 | how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | 66,647,534 | 66,647,534 |
374e53400f578cb86eed5ebf033160859259bdea | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xef8cf8b45ef7e3a607a72b6e1d56bede869fdd81795b63db847de1090bf11c41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target ... | no | 1 | tiktok-banned-in-the-us-before-may-2025 | TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? | 67,508,241 | 67,508,241 |
f1737cc2dbf47848c6c156b1c475859fb8f87413 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x02bffb29e57328ee352cd39bc254a875aac835b50e0bc7c2f575aef0a0d959cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | super-bowl-lix-how-many-times-will-taylor-swift-be-shown-on-broadcast | Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 10 or more times? | 67,760,786 | 67,760,786 |
18e47b7cea8e987a76f74b6594574dc494dc8162 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xa8f8b83ea9ea072dc4c71215d67b4d4d32f480f528d691fdb672811117ba0a84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | how-many-people-will-watch-super-bowl-lix | Will 135 million or more people watch Super Bowl LIX? | 67,817,752 | 67,817,752 |
126c016c4e6161a9a6727e35e0e9727462cf8d2b | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x491cb0ee1e9aded594ad5be7eafd05ca4161c80b12eed18a09b2bfa38e2e6fcd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | ucl-mac-rma-2025-02-11 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-11? | 67,818,297 | 67,818,297 |
d449ac7686cb0addd59f9e822a9588b04ba87e04 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x0af1f3d03530e92159b6e0c8ebb4524c0c7a39b0afc4bcc3ec3e1640621e2d1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February 11? | 67,823,023 | 67,823,023 |
99bad9e84a9579fc209ac035610fc7b3f9b09d71 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x8ef79f00123b8bbd451ff6641e55a3a2ee7ba18f28df964b7e1a29878cc1511c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 12? | 67,860,459 | 67,860,459 |
2ebcc9d4a3f1efe118725dcd245441d11f33e236 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x2e8a8e38e740a73f7186f87f834bec73f6132b2af643eccf2ab0281fc8141278 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-15? | 67,968,036 | 67,968,036 |
f88ffc869fd0b01608769d6e5d0d78769b556c58 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x039f8d7cb56ede2e44ecc64a5080dcd16c91f86cb4245ec60e8bc6780a953efa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-eve-2025-02-15 | Will Everton win on 2025-02-15? | 67,973,309 | 67,973,309 |
ae8d55769e8e652cc7d186a93b3dc80f08a16b55 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xadbd5bd971cd3d1a032af5a0793564e9a666c4d89fbbb8d91ef2e8f67b67d18e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-mun-2025-02-16 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-02-16? | 68,012,453 | 68,012,453 |
64e3eb58768f1b0e2e8e1958fe7dd37b6ac00289 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xe4ef6372951010fb66044f59b0d62efa38ddc68c9de7a5533648e299c1ffcfb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | ucl-ata-bru-2025-02-18 | Will Club Brugge win on 2025-02-18? | 68,108,851 | 68,108,851 |
669118b1190fe1f8dae98b3f98bf6bf0108455a7 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xa36eaa733e8e04a0ae342694f78842ea68c663acd058401c2c62504bebecc7dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | ucl-dor-spo-2025-02-19 | Will Borussia Dortmund vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? | 68,133,050 | 68,133,050 |
b26a7e9fd2eea9bc0b0126da0d90d46c6b7e8dd9 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x94888ae0b62688fb814762dcd2560a2a491748e11d13ff3cb2be45b184261e09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | uel-ajx-usg-2025-02-20 | Will Ajax vs. Union St. Gilloise end in a draw? | 68,178,225 | 68,178,225 |
62b8a2e468c9f0549419231837b73529ee524201 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x20a581f0e69886782ab4d7e4555c608de9af81bac046eb0a09e9c7a411f6c433 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-mun-2025-02-22 | Will Everton win on 2025-02-22? | 68,248,743 | 68,248,743 |
77628d86b72d180abf3d9ad3775eb168c7258a41 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x065add7d2b3a4a0353f5781caf321267fd2dae7f49ea86b4d3e5af04dd6f822e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-che-2025-02-22 | Will Aston Villa vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | 68,259,778 | 68,259,778 |
ae47f7b2dea5e325d24e3bb5cdbce2d08f350597 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xcd1970ed16af614f6023b9eec75c5b0ed168d406eded126acb8a9f018112dc2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | epl-new-not-2025-02-23 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-23? | 68,288,657 | 68,288,657 |
cec3d259dbcc71f5813cd0178bbcf2fc753a81a3 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xf26ebb80ef5ddef0024fe698d48a76645d9f9c30ba1d3067be9b193b133d837e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | epl-new-not-2025-02-23 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-02-23? | 68,288,657 | 68,288,657 |
eebfa019e5fd48fbb33b2ed733afd64f20d77274 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x3a998cf76a73e7701069d35572a9c36a90fde6a15fca12ed6600f6c70654551a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | epl-tot-mac-2025-02-26 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-26? | 68,420,254 | 68,420,254 |
3839efe0e1207c7ea0f536c22280ba6286e87756 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xb6fd27f5f8fb1a02f4ed1824ed9b0db2b5102d577a9ec4881de024b4c0ab1d71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | epl-mun-ips-2025-02-26 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-02-26? | 68,420,254 | 68,420,254 |
3e918a6d0e495d55cba580d012f45aec01b14c0c | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xd2882d01ac5dd405bed9ad3c64318c3b03c57220c227e25fb393a796a2683dc0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-new-2025-02-26 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-26? | 68,420,254 | 68,420,254 |
d4feeeaba00615a8b2148de5ede16c5d9c6be441 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x8cf7b4d170144ed22b738d4a8013ded59eec3686bfeae5fd7c9025e9998773a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-04? | 68,660,178 | 68,660,178 |
b11cce5df31d87b02d9eb95cea0a6f4faa0c5451 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xa60691341da78992d359a056e980994d290bf5964c2bac4d076c1cbbd5b871ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | ucl-psg-liv-2025-03-05 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | 68,697,317 | 68,697,317 |
b15968474429a5bc418b8c0e985e947856d63080 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xb32063fa61bdfe52e0c72011e1268ad6f36ca3b0e00e10dadff90614bb286c01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | ucl-fey-int-2025-03-05 | Will Inter win on 2025-03-05? | 68,697,317 | 68,697,317 |
0251a688c50a16fef3e7bde0432eca8cc86cf2e1 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x5c099a464f508b907916b57b9b16715f37a0086aa14815078565c6514f2d4843 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-28-mar-7 | Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7? | 68,778,425 | 68,778,425 |
f876cf83c3ccb04231024eeca26b97aab0514e61 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xcaba2507c8ce55330e8069c0f7631e56909ef5c9ac06a3e561ab615115c992d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | 68,805,678 | 68,805,678 |
bbdb48ec367dfdfbd6952e12997e7cec358f0667 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xf74891c9ef987b6f69a19404b4f66cb4cf0bff59f10d75eea5e801ae3b1fb42c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | epl-bre-ast-2025-03-08 | Will Brentford win on 2025-03-08? | 68,817,229 | 68,817,229 |
e5f590811a0599702f9f24a20063cfe4211c6132 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x24014b107ae2c722c5e37a3824dfe740222d21b9d4fee5d78e3fe8f06ace051f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | 70,593,613 | 70,593,613 |
2ce4a6db82522b3293248bc97b89010a62e0a64d | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x026dcea519a3b1e8d8722d3e3298d3d8d1ad98658aa17de6b584134e59988fed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-british-columbia | Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in British Columbia in the next Canadian Election? | 71,174,443 | 71,174,443 |
59782f36711b01d4b154c8d4e50617f5240f9e4a | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xca63e47c977557793ac28b654a45e8147292e1189675a0fafbf18f123ff84496 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | ucl-int-bar-2025-05-06 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-05-06? | 71,277,027 | 71,277,027 |
b76bad6633541e85f5e9b01f1a8f7d28e5f0aaa4 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xb9b884ab2dc73235ae1defa3ed5271faa0e9ead9843c261e961b0543592b3eda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | uel-mun-ath-2025-05-08 | Will Manchester United vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? | 71,286,932 | 71,286,932 |
c9c3cc2a994cd099d1fcd518ec5a0f602065b762 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xc1ff87bad9714ec1955ec94df87633a33a04f806e998ec12e8dea778e26f8e3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday? | Event: how-many-acres-will-palisades-fire-burn-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? | Event: tiktok-banned-in-the-us-before-may-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ta... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-9 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $101000 on May 9? | 71,322,618 | 71,322,618 |
d439f9f090fc2ebac1111ea7d3dcb7993e535340 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xc8e871cbab61467b9bc10d8c9dd4299b8c5748cb1f21623b14d545e57ea590c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? | Event: tiktok-banned-in-the-us-before-may-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 10 or more times? | Event: super-bowl-lix-how-many-times-will-taylor-swift-be-shown-on-broadcast | Choice: y... | no | 1 | epl-ast-tot-2025-05-16 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-16? | 71,608,979 | 71,608,979 |
4ed97e8c808cbd09222ea3c574b49ef95a0e34ca | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x5dd78d510005f88a4b5ac6bc903cf1efecc23a5d72d8a30c63d1d3258e12d530 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 10 or more times? | Event: super-bowl-lix-how-many-times-will-taylor-swift-be-shown-on-broadcast | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 135 million or more people watch Super Bowl LIX? | Event: how-many-people-will-watch-super-bowl... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-lei-2025-05-25 | Will Bournemouth vs. Leicester end in a draw? | 71,988,530 | 71,988,530 |
619661ab338402526da16def0dd69064adfe3e99 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xffb372848e5824c2ca788b3d3f261926ea7426c661545476ec1f73cbc5b09a63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 135 million or more people watch Super Bowl LIX? | Event: how-many-people-will-watch-super-bowl-lix | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-mac-rma-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperatur... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-mac-2025-05-25 | Will Fulham vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | 71,988,530 | 71,988,530 |
092ab24cbafffbd9b42ec1267deb6cee6f6ba624 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xe9cf62e08d42c1a6d5bc04ddf302d2f753bb4339202b27a6d1d5e041063673b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-mac-rma-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | ucl-psg-int-2025-05-31 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-31? | 72,224,727 | 72,224,727 |
f6fab0e73cc0efa1a96770cfb6670cea731029c9 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xd450b01dfa52401282e5c0c9e9f3c76b3c2173910af840dfb79d71eb7a6eebc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | C... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on June 2? | 72,311,499 | 72,311,499 |
322db4408bfb2c8c7d76321b6dc8497f4af093f9 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x8725f5d1b5282496676283084cb54be91fac2ba380d951178d953e78d0c0c5ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton win on ... | yes | 1 | 2025-french-open-winner | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open? | 72,532,586 | 72,532,586 |
f2743c34bc49ee56ac03038cd6f7ca5895aff53a | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x6e3cdc0c7bbfa38f3e24b7c424a185e8db0aa0f915b3f7443c6f455410337853 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-cry-eve-2025-02-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-02-16? | Event: epl-tot-mun-2025-02-16 | Choic... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw? | 72,535,602 | 72,535,602 |
c660e80b7d7293930335e35a71733695605e26e0 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x230a2c0b88aa0cdb810506b818aec1e092c81ae07e3148c2aff24df2aaa0d2e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-cry-eve-2025-02-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-02-16? | Event: epl-tot-mun-2025-02-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Club Brugge win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl-ata-bru-2025-02-18 | Cho... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-6-13 | Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? | 72,677,746 | 72,677,746 |
5681d91fc3bcbc1483701370443cb302848ef36f | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x7669928da7b68f5993dab63465e28f5fc4f18f9384e12aedf41dc3b53a5c0db1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-02-16? | Event: epl-tot-mun-2025-02-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Brugge win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl-ata-bru-2025-02-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? | Event: ucl-do... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 13? | 72,731,603 | 72,731,603 |
6b0bbac0493cea33661d85d1656f3f19cbd038a3 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x31b82efaf43ce6c5608dde944444b9b39f52450ef8aeb22807907af612de07d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Brugge win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl-ata-bru-2025-02-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? | Event: ucl-dor-spo-2025-02-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ajax vs. Union St. Gilloise end in a draw? |... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | 72,778,370 | 72,778,370 |
2ac3b7cf0aa54504f5117d7eb065822a74b2e8f8 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xa882e8f48047f97d3b1f341c9c98e92c1b484b812bde299b96c0f69cfa5388c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? | Event: ucl-dor-spo-2025-02-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax vs. Union St. Gilloise end in a draw? | Event: uel-ajx-usg-2025-02-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-02-22? | Eve... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | 72,778,370 | 72,778,370 |
55dd026a593c23fbde821e3d1b6421057975e904 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xa1078bebaff8ec21cc1f0587ad6db67fc6f05acb785e46ee349f916953a8ec3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ajax vs. Union St. Gilloise end in a draw? | Event: uel-ajx-usg-2025-02-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-02-22? | Event: epl-eve-mun-2025-02-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-as... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-17-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on June 17 at 5 PM ET? | 72,976,023 | 72,976,023 |
c4c653af91f6caadcea473b06b3dda88e875b6c6 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x7fd4a14eabf2a2cd7c6cf6787cff35897bb010996533b9fae955fe453f47429a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-02-22? | Event: epl-eve-mun-2025-02-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-ast-che-2025-02-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-23? | Event: epl-new-not-2025-02-... | yes | 1 | world-test-championship-2nd-test-england-vs-india | Will England win the match? | 73,803,417 | 73,803,417 |
86a5fa3cd0ac113566e2747da7b405648bb46512 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xc45f6f5fcbc814bdcaf46b16eccfec63cef615cc364d75ad3f49f74e0afd3615 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-ast-che-2025-02-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-23? | Event: epl-new-not-2025-02-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-02-23? | Event: epl-new-not... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,955,479 | 73,955,479 |
a0caa21749087f59dadfb780ebd3a1dbaf3c4840 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x011ec2c823e844fe94c5b55da59025933abf964dba3bde52d2605916d930e970 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-23? | Event: epl-new-not-2025-02-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-02-23? | Event: epl-new-not-2025-02-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-26? | Event: epl-tot-mac-202... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-21-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 21 at 5PM ET? | 74,288,779 | 74,288,779 |
01f6614a9721dd28eb50f0ba9bc3794f397fb16e | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x7ee5637b76236ee5bf564b4e2b2441f0adada8c3fcf4b0b0d297a68d037f8c93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-02-23? | Event: epl-new-not-2025-02-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-26? | Event: epl-tot-mac-2025-02-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-02-26? | Event: epl-mun... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18? | 74,288,779 | 74,288,779 |
512d576c88851981e24f4e4eea091263cf211af9 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x8c7f7973a0ee75f5eb8604dc596d69e7a579ebb205bab903f252047f1a53b5dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-26? | Event: epl-tot-mac-2025-02-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-02-26? | Event: epl-mun-ips-2025-02-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-26? | Event: epl-liv-new-2025... | yes | 1 | pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Pump.fun market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? | 74,288,779 | 74,288,779 |
c715879ceb9c2eefb44a44815535c34125ac9d17 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xe3f962292e654695857b0910f3313c4285b5fe26ed4e9a8b129cafb3f1e2bfd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-02-26? | Event: epl-mun-ips-2025-02-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-26? | Event: epl-liv-new-2025-02-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-15-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $120K on July 15 at 5PM ET? | 74,288,779 | 74,288,779 |
3e2b9d0dd3265fb17cee97f69c24d23395af3d55 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x5204a476cef5ddd0bb95b74c435f95aff2b79b551068835c8705ab1e7b418a4a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-26? | Event: epl-liv-new-2025-02-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-2025... | yes | 1 | nyc-mayoral-dem-primary-of-rcv-rounds | Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 8? | 74,319,254 | 74,319,254 |
27a3876e9476b414beb260650c881f45d7f362ba | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x8563c981a34ec0d1841e44cca703021826e326a7cd8223639fd8d473c6e2901a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-2025-03-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-fey-int-2025-03-0... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-22-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 22 at 5PM ET? | 74,319,254 | 74,319,254 |
34947680d6053983af107704cc6427ee72698d75 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xd238f08842c6fa3013b9bedc008f8d9d6e46c2d21a0814252ba39751238355e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-psg-liv-2025-03-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-fey-int-2025-03-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7? | Event: elon-musk... | yes | 1 | nyc-mayoral-dem-primary-of-rcv-rounds | Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 7? | 74,319,254 | 74,319,254 |
67fe425f74ef2975422ba2240253e04309363674 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x0cb04dcfa4333679d81cd28f827ee91c2b2ff598a6923ae25ca036efa1713bdf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-fey-int-2025-03-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-28-mar-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: ep... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-23 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $119K on July 23? | 74,332,535 | 74,332,535 |
b57e005cadb5b3786a6d6de8cb393b32a57c1f54 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x6a12109658269b6eb893bee34ffaf67e76ebde2e11b2f2092c2d8b15882c4432 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-28-mar-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-03-08? | Event... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-23-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 23 at 5PM ET? | 74,332,535 | 74,332,535 |
1f47b3baddbcda30b78cee7326aab4f4442029b5 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xe1a4dc491d405a5310a77e34aaffad058543234bc6ca641b24411318a0767c31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-bre-ast-2025-03-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-23-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 23 at 5PM ET? | 74,332,535 | 74,332,535 |
880a1494b14c36ccba3f9369567b474f874bf3b0 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x2df8a2064b0c540b3fa26a5685627aa0da9677f11cc2f055187fdc55f6ce1269 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-bre-ast-2025-03-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in British Columbia in the n... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-24-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 24 at 5PM ET? | 74,375,977 | 74,375,977 |
66fc3754bc8388b1691d54fa2991705af764bedb | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x1b45f9265948c383857693d31100fa991ff85f01a9de0a0637a14e4eb155ec09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in British Columbia in the next Canadian Election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-british-columbia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $116K on July 25? | 74,482,774 | 74,482,774 |
f4c3ee05a4b515fedd8e384a65415710605e2360 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x096fda3246bb826e8e6457dd9bc35a3e8bdeb890643503b2462a7e8247d65636 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in British Columbia in the next Canadian Election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-british-columbia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-05-06? | Event: ucl-int-bar-2025-05-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | cricket-england-vs-india-4th-test-match | Will India win the match? | 74,489,536 | 74,489,536 |
beb95660c76169dfa8228f839c725c2cdd412342 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x442ec89838388e1533b515a107d7c7bdaba0e32e3ffcfe17142b7be4240d41c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-05-06? | Event: ucl-int-bar-2025-05-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? | Event: uel-mun-ath-2025-05-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-29-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 29 at 5PM ET? | 74,576,686 | 74,576,686 |
b64aed793a89a169bdf43fa4798d823bc115357a | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xc4674cacba4286220061effc3a4afb90be60afad9ac38ae8d4d4d15a99590fe6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? | Event: uel-mun-ath-2025-05-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $101000 on May 9? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-31-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 31 at 5PM ET? | 74,806,551 | 74,806,551 |
10b4be74cbd496208c3953b5f0697c9783e0ec21 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xe5db53bb45338e2f20949af7e5ddc04e094c33cb91fda6fb9ebbdf44fc1174a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $101000 on May 9? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-16? | Event: epl-ast-tot-2025-05-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. Leicester end in ... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-che-2025-08-22 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-22? | 75,539,713 | 75,539,713 |
926de80431087253fbaed3f51b53ccede48ae957 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x2a28a0f12c4987ebbdeefc5ab3388065d7c42c5fb973b9786790015fd0bf4dd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-16? | Event: epl-ast-tot-2025-05-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. Leicester end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-lei-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: ep... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-wol-2025-08-23 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-23? | 75,570,038 | 75,570,038 |
624f39544c886a63ef7a70ad422c67b92171868d | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x0b6cbded17b641695ec9efe00da60389bb96bdfc07f4e49f0c33b307b979b646 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. Leicester end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-lei-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-mac-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-31? | ... | no | 1 | lal-lev-bar-2025-08-23 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-23? | 75,578,689 | 75,578,689 |
44986fab7d5b8cc005dd9ed5a87142632b0f4e04 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x4852725c8c5ca8c591e98b7e16196ceb26672190eaf3dc95f45ac826e89fcc6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-mac-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-31? | Event: ucl-psg-int-2025-05-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-ast-2025-08-23 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-08-23? | 75,578,689 | 75,578,689 |
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