sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1b3c804871e46797dc3f6da56fdcb4437bc013ea | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x601cd732f899d4fa680bc40b521ed9d2212af181fb108b6eccd066434931e868 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-31? | Event: ucl-psg-int-2025-05-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on June 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlo... | yes | 1 | bun-pau-dor-2025-08-23 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-08-23? | 75,578,689 | 75,578,689 |
6bb54dbf8cafd623ed6746f1809eb66a1460eef3 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x139f763b365d592ab9fcea417196d5e2414d059f144e2388bbf34b230841326d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on June 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open? | Event: 2025-french-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will P... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $111K on August 25? | 75,859,042 | 75,859,042 |
00b6f0d93195d6d334b9f32f191faef0c984117a | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x50ffdc290227b8be2fc59649bcf18bcd5bd712b007ef31d8c88a70616cc72558 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open? | Event: 2025-french-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times Ju... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Will Brighton win on 2025-08-24? | 75,859,042 | 75,859,042 |
71395a44cee4ec95367fbaebaf3544357d33f216 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x9ab581add80902a9b0cd1b999bc0aa4ccfa26dc0acef1346b604d43541a4e935 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-6-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be be... | yes | 1 | lal-rso-esp-2025-08-24 | Will Espanyol win on 2025-08-24? | 75,859,042 | 75,859,042 |
26db23c14d7bcaeffde251194479b1287c25aee9 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xb6706399e2932c2f522546ec9f14957359734c364204175dafd5fd3ab6f35bf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-6-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 13? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of ... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-not-2025-08-24 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-24? | 75,859,042 | 75,859,042 |
cbc720a2ed404cae69aa9c3eb1f79079e6fafe74 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xea0c5367499cecb3057c1423f26ce93d74c9aa64106462b6e672f98bbb6bf4b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 13? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | lal-ovi-rea-2025-08-24 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-08-24? | 75,859,042 | 75,859,042 |
15fbf60c3558f76b825b094a59339c56e4e0ad09 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xe8e0038e33c3431f6d11fb7d74b2ecb4cee0479af365f7e6431be1722ae15766 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | yes | 1 | cof-nca-cri-2025-09-05 | Will Nicaragua vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? | 76,123,810 | 76,123,810 |
977622148e6cfdf856064cff94caea5ec6cb99e8 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x14402dc8dc30d1514d66a7e5bdcb111acc423e08ba6deca7f09f532633da843a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on June 17 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-17-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | yes | 1 | 2025-us-open-winner-w | Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2025 US Open? | 76,188,000 | 76,188,000 |
6725cc5e61193a2aa916f14b87c84142496d64d3 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x1bf821634d7f4dfb1b54215037d92035384c9f2fa3c3cd123ca83594d37f15a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on June 17 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-17-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England win the match? | Event: world-test-championship-2nd-test-england-vs-india | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 1 | fif-usa-kor1-2025-09-06 | Will Korea Republic win on 2025-09-06? | 76,188,002 | 76,188,002 |
bdf34af29c5f7a4ce07321c4efaa7a2558d71f0e | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xcc0adc5b0ca0306cf7bc120fd10554a744c2c4089478e747d20a899bbb72914e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England win the match? | Event: world-test-championship-2nd-test-england-vs-india | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117... | no | 1 | fif-idn-lib-2025-09-08 | Will Indonesia win on 2025-09-08? | 76,216,855 | 76,216,855 |
cc8a108972c71ddb9fbf5aa84ffc9b77809f4b18 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x55b954da72336ce76b3b9ac96e9fad56b23779495ecfd94ecba65bca940e9b6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 21 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-21-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or mor... | no | 1 | caf-eqg-tun-2025-09-08 | Will Tunisia win on 2025-09-08? | 76,226,294 | 76,226,294 |
a96560db579ecc15847a20cf83deb6b90b1ed39f | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x1660dcbd38574f777961bc7a5e5371640b8060f85f63da6b1c24346b7f217f02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 21 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-21-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Pump.fun mark... | no | 1 | fif-wal-can-2025-09-09 | Will Canada win on 2025-09-09? | 76,460,516 | 76,460,516 |
c9d6d11545cfea03b303c51193afa92ea2bb7ca2 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xd3a719f6ee26e1f0955ab5446372cb034420544eb8f36d1553b773f663c8ae38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Pump.fun market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? | Event: pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pr... | yes | 1 | ucl-juv-dor-2025-09-16 | Will Juventus win on 2025-09-16? | 76,561,525 | 76,561,525 |
f97549d1246f55375e104d9268b5a5095cd9bc34 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xf7024c6dabba3863f8cff51725a6f479bf0914c97d3ed9997a7dc5b733436087 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pump.fun market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? | Event: pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $120K on July 15 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-15-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | ucl-psv-gil-2025-09-16 | Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-09-16? | 76,561,525 | 76,561,525 |
c94a6f0e746239cadae67eb7ed63687457d660c0 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x3bacb765b4b30303a22bcf1f61372b13363bcd3742c4a72d85ca2c62b2edf49a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $120K on July 15 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-15-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 8? | Event: nyc-mayoral-dem-primary-of-rcv-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 1 | ucl-bay-cfc-2025-09-17 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-17? | 76,730,213 | 76,730,213 |
7304163ffeb24332664b614f2a1cda17b593086b | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x62ff06880bc3ab1585ea1af188aa456eb52dfc78f030248b0b5cace105f397f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 8? | Event: nyc-mayoral-dem-primary-of-rcv-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 22 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | tur-fen-ala-2025-09-17 | Will Alanyaspor win on 2025-09-17? | 76,730,213 | 76,730,213 |
1fcaa47b7a0aa6af007103249f20cbc4171b0136 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xa96ca4ad5c70f3b0ec8a6fc56d0e359b7dd39beafe970a26a04bb091ad5621bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 22 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 7? | Event: nyc-mayoral-dem-primary-of-rcv-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | lal-rea-esp-2025-09-20 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-20? | 76,730,213 | 76,730,213 |
0e9dc4d53712b320bb314401af48ef4930bff9c4 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x00738c4af393f92997d966fb3a228820450769cb9e486d4d71fcd6588b98e0c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 7? | Event: nyc-mayoral-dem-primary-of-rcv-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $119K on July 23? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | lib-sao-lqu-2025-09-25 | Will São Paulo FC vs. LDU de Quito end in a draw? | 77,060,734 | 77,060,734 |
facf1d70abebd0e73a4c090f542727c7ea4b8f78 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x3770153576430dc3d9c8b33226d097b9e7920a9e86a10c8072b23eafb290dd14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $119K on July 23? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 23 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-23-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | lal-gir-esp-2025-09-26 | Will Espanyol win on 2025-09-26? | 77,060,734 | 77,060,734 |
24b02678b3e5aa1f7430f50313fd5657b80d3fdf | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x43daeb10e24e08c6a6be779c6534413fad6181cb57d0bb16888208fd3086a471 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 23 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-23-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 23 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-23-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | cricket-asia-cup-winner | Will Pakistan win the 2025 Asia Cup? | 77,060,734 | 77,060,734 |
c19c5bb638ad3587937366c1519681a51c4fb46c | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x65d9210605de4bfd13d6766d4d6b17af7b73c2b92f904bae67865876109b49e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 23 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-23-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 24 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-24-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | arg-ban-uni-2025-09-26 | Will CA Unión win on 2025-09-26? | 77,060,734 | 77,060,734 |
44a6fe03c732ae40beeb336ff0a9654f65fc46cc | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xf81f831f6793074a0ae25e56382cc62c362cff75e1c65a520b7ff4357d4dde83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on July 24 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-24-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $116K on July 25? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | arg-pla-sms-2025-09-26 | Will CA San Martín de San Juan win on 2025-09-26? | 77,060,734 | 77,060,734 |
2640a2aadfdfc1ccc867a297989e56afaacb8a46 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x5c0a7cc0d420b4e85490494ec0869205e0129419cd2d4e1ca2c631a4a7a30a8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $116K on July 25? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will India win the match? | Event: cricket-england-vs-india-4th-test-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be l... | no | 1 | mls-laf-rsl-2025-09-21 | Will Los Angeles FC win on 2025-09-21? | 77,060,736 | 77,060,736 |
4e71ee5d0790f99ddae618b2b968bd4c2d59a89d | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x61ba10266d28104b9a7eb4321c2242c39c0670c1992e58a6c7aa874b6d2adc50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will India win the match? | Event: cricket-england-vs-india-4th-test-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 29 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-29-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | tur-kay-gen-2025-09-28 | Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2025-09-28? | 77,060,736 | 77,060,736 |
111ced73f201bc6f43a20913aeb7bd61b19a3876 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x8d6c2e4e75b1f1006894e7cc96f18a943e6dcb51dea5819b68ecc83f4f0b813a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 29 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-29-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 31 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-31-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | mls-aus-sea-2025-09-21 | Will Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | 77,060,736 | 77,060,736 |
f121a9a2ba4c8c75bcb8e9560ac980516e322340 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xda469b50770caacc6d2e9f74e4b5b81d072e7c8874d2fb2191d8dc51c3b56065 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 31 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-31-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-22? | Event: epl-wes-che-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08... | no | 1 | sea-mil-nap-2025-09-28 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-09-28? | 77,060,736 | 77,060,736 |
f8fe2a634c2fa24f7c1507a5e546f0be29c8f31d | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x0d156abc379ef7ee281006969f786a987b36ac8f35d95ec00932063941612f9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-22? | Event: epl-wes-che-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-23? | Event: epl-bou-wol-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-23? | Event: lal-lev-bar-2025-08-23 | Cho... | yes | 1 | fl1-sbr-nan-2025-10-04 | Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-10-04? | 77,267,293 | 77,267,293 |
99e82039eddce2ad088583bbdd2bf9f32e5ac159 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xab65843b77ecbd28f561df9f26a5ba3bdff5dfdf5bb127e56e416e0702e730fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-23? | Event: epl-bou-wol-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-23? | Event: lal-lev-bar-2025-08-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-08-23? | Event: epl-bre-ast-2025-08-23 | ... | yes | 1 | epl-che-liv-2025-10-04 | Will Chelsea vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | 77,267,293 | 77,267,293 |
d2ed3adede4ce53b4fcdfb5c89301605c56b3137 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x233fce50b82cb097065fdac7b5701c4d2b407ed23c22cc78b971ceea7e409d33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-23? | Event: lal-lev-bar-2025-08-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-08-23? | Event: epl-bre-ast-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-08-23? | Event: bun-pau-dor-2025-08... | yes | 1 | sea-ata-com-2025-10-04 | Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-04? | 77,280,912 | 77,280,912 |
50f386b56fe71422570600dd66464dc965eba020 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xc8761147389535d28583a71eab365841f36f1cc7ee689fbd32a384e3879a5b7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-08-23? | Event: epl-bre-ast-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-08-23? | Event: bun-pau-dor-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $111K on August 25? | ... | yes | 1 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series? | 77,445,072 | 77,445,072 |
a24e27d6f4580a984aa17134f976b86ecde31c76 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x5c3f96d0acc3f9e54e653b29f5c6f3f88f06aa4645b66a4080cedd0d3edb8cd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-08-23? | Event: bun-pau-dor-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $111K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-08-24? |... | yes | 1 | uef-cze-hrv-2025-10-09 | Will Croatia win on 2025-10-09? | 77,478,262 | 77,478,262 |
bd1b6ffd671d356dd0b7d895748947b86eb0672c | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x14a3dfeba8b22a32feb0f10763db68bc4d2abeb5bff90e9ae20de53793b35a1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $111K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-08-24? | Event: l... | no | 1 | nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | 77,502,101 | 77,502,101 |
aff1bc91ce79e7f0b3f8ed0f835ae700bbbb6138 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0x174095e1593bae3b4ddfe14e9d90ad7fe7572a8e92193e37ee2d9a3151f544fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-08-24? | Event: lal-rso-esp-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-cry-not-2025-08-24 | ... | yes | 1 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? | 77,502,101 | 77,502,101 |
eb1036f79fce49d0442e685de83f765f59298d94 | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xb1de8e4de72cc5674815e0ac09adce40ba94f3dec50e64ea15918f109fa58339 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-08-24? | Event: lal-rso-esp-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-cry-not-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-08-24? | Event: lal-ovi-rea-2025-08-24... | yes | 1 | nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | 77,502,101 | 77,502,101 |
a56dd5e04b7a7ec1779ca8accba840f7ec855b6b | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xaee675c6cfbd16d5aba3f75a681dfb799365eb6fada3b234227f6ad5af1ad305 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-cry-not-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-08-24? | Event: lal-ovi-rea-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nicaragua vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? | Event: cof-nca-cri... | yes | 1 | the-life-of-a-showgirl-first-week-album-sales-121 | Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3250000 and 3500000? | 77,526,724 | 77,526,724 |
d7266caee5a0780df4358e03c273392c43ab185f | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xed4ce27fe8ba3e658354f1d63a7fb80d6eae547d3871a033721cbb2e616697ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-08-24? | Event: lal-ovi-rea-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicaragua vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? | Event: cof-nca-cri-2025-09-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-u... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-7-october-14 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? | 77,692,019 | 77,692,019 |
f45a7f10e37df1ef75e35e10fb76b4c3b7798daf | 0x3a4f2d28f884a5d7bfab73956792bc1c931ac4f2 | 0xa1adc098f0fcddbcad3050aecb21dbe4986f04222310bf08ac00b7b2b8dab7ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicaragua vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? | Event: cof-nca-cri-2025-09-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-09-06? | Event: fif... | yes | 1 | united-states-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? | 77,914,229 | 77,914,229 |
1a22669b71ec92222e9ed2b900291cfa0091b8ab | 0x3a5385abf319168799a3d761d93bc9950d04cc07 | 0x4fbea42d0b9ad4b3a39fb78a2c4a4c4e922eb73ddf9cc6b9c75d0db27fa90eea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | 77,567,985 | 77,567,985 |
b0dedaa5290fcc8208e2929640b537f6fea24027 | 0x3a5385abf319168799a3d761d93bc9950d04cc07 | 0x592faf6014f40e75e58c163d9b98b9467df91330012e8772a476bdde1112ea59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | 77,567,985 | 77,567,985 |
7ceb43fac9817641f6bcd6f0142a39d101404b09 | 0x3a5385abf319168799a3d761d93bc9950d04cc07 | 0x29b7499e5175523b83716c2acb6e401c84866035c9f900540b7f1baa08b95027 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | no | 1 | fif-kor1-par-2025-10-14 | Will Korea Republic vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | 77,716,040 | 77,716,040 |
0fb44894d4d0a1b7a018f3c1488869f0a15d67ad | 0x3a5385abf319168799a3d761d93bc9950d04cc07 | 0xbb56299d0ebe4ce4516b0d1b1c4691726c13fc528cf32b6fb73e50f33701aa50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | yes | 1 | fif-kor1-par-2025-10-14 | Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | 77,716,040 | 77,716,040 |
b507d174f90afffc887d4d4acfb24fe301c7b5f4 | 0x3a5385abf319168799a3d761d93bc9950d04cc07 | 0x7d13eb44f68d602b6814a5b7f749846cf9ad7b4631812a2c34ea36a0cdb2401b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | yes | 1 | bra-mir-int-2025-10-15 | Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-15? | 77,751,481 | 77,751,481 |
50d055cb95fdd34e52714b175e36c7d02a77f53c | 0x3a5385abf319168799a3d761d93bc9950d04cc07 | 0xdf1fd2d26237c19c5cce5ab3c68e9406b383b8032606058ed55d15b525e9973f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | yes | 1 | bra-bot-fla-2025-10-15 | Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-15? | 77,751,481 | 77,751,481 |
41895984d6d6a8e6bf8465f6e768fb2192a061f3 | 0x3a5385abf319168799a3d761d93bc9950d04cc07 | 0xfb44c609a4922fa8c5483d9723865e250757d31e99ac0a6a9b900b29793d2436 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | yes | 1 | bra-fec-vas-2025-10-15 | Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2025-10-15? | 77,751,481 | 77,751,481 |
4cfe1825333ce086894a5431452708f53ac72bf8 | 0x3a5385abf319168799a3d761d93bc9950d04cc07 | 0xdf48fa6323d35517130069c39865fcf53a1464221e31ae809d0d8e70faf0b7ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | no | 1 | spl-kho-njm-2025-10-17 | Will Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club end in a draw? | 77,834,269 | 77,834,269 |
8f9b7bbc1819b62088acca87c7d0f3c8646b600b | 0x3a5385abf319168799a3d761d93bc9950d04cc07 | 0x08a2d71eb16febee65822fb29f064ae9e117a2cfde43aa313733c1528c66a9ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | yes | 1 | fif-mex-ecu-2025-10-14 | Will Ecuador win on 2025-10-14? | 77,845,882 | 77,845,882 |
474102f6b5fee221c73bfa8287b57bb236a3903e | 0x3a5385abf319168799a3d761d93bc9950d04cc07 | 0x5a852137f6f49f1a89d71f3ec9628b274676ac3fb33ee31c215f6c5066d06f51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | yes | 1 | bra-vit-bah-2025-10-16 | Will EC Vitória vs. EC Bahia end in a draw? | 77,845,882 | 77,845,882 |
ea93451532a5e2bd4a3538bc4f42cba2082c8eb4 | 0x3a5385abf319168799a3d761d93bc9950d04cc07 | 0x628405a1aaf1875626e1979bfd01291576bb0a3575a27677e684a891ae2ade79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | yes | 1 | fif-col-can-2025-10-14 | Will Colombia win on 2025-10-14? | 77,845,882 | 77,845,882 |
4604c44ed179dec77c3aa880d9d28010b97d917b | 0x3a5385abf319168799a3d761d93bc9950d04cc07 | 0xf74bbf848847caaf0cbf2e16ba7d5eb28cd5a030adf4295627de20cf3f6d49ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | no | 1 | bra-vit-bah-2025-10-16 | Will EC Vitória win on 2025-10-16? | 77,845,882 | 77,845,882 |
e28eed6bfb859c5a1be81ab20b0fc8eaa089fdf0 | 0x3a5385abf319168799a3d761d93bc9950d04cc07 | 0x200f13e1678601fe88b26f6e38f701e35768fc8517679406287771a1616ecbfb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | yes | 1 | sea-lec-sas-2025-10-18 | Will Lecce vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? | 77,967,552 | 77,967,552 |
68456bb9febe17104aad471ac5ffed064e9a1a04 | 0x3a5385abf319168799a3d761d93bc9950d04cc07 | 0xbe4e19e11f67565ab1437a9c4ea852dc67737fb1a8a24d49a4de4912d7c01922 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | yes | 1 | elc-sto-wre-2025-10-18 | Will Stoke City FC win on 2025-10-18? | 77,967,552 | 77,967,552 |
6d5f36bad5378e93b5c832471f3ed146bccd8221 | 0x3a5385abf319168799a3d761d93bc9950d04cc07 | 0x54884ef1f269cd64b35c512fb529d9ece4e27f986220158217c662ba490fc124 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | no | 1 | fif-tun-mtn-2025-11-12 | Will Tunisia win on 2025-11-12? | 78,957,917 | 78,957,917 |
cb39394a0b2dad5f86bd5a175078475712719f50 | 0x3a5385abf319168799a3d761d93bc9950d04cc07 | 0xd81a5549f60fa3589ccdf9a4aa8d3c01e73b28bc86fc404531562f53105ad05d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | no | 1 | fif-cha-moz-2025-11-17 | Will Mozambique win on 2025-11-17? | 79,182,103 | 79,182,103 |
91a81e07d8cec7dc960811dcb81fe055f8048cf9 | 0x3a5385abf319168799a3d761d93bc9950d04cc07 | 0xca6b9809496025d518c9ff8360d6211e78e28b1537980ade2881f1c255b5b568 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | no | 1 | cof-jam-kor-2025-11-18 | Will Jamaica win on 2025-11-18? | 79,227,187 | 79,227,187 |
1a9b506c9f7a8806ddb4c6af271816f270c428ea | 0x3a5385abf319168799a3d761d93bc9950d04cc07 | 0xdb185e1b86e4bb0a168ffedbd3bc52ccfa33a4d0ecb4ef9a0767d6d4c091ed1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | no | 1 | bra-juv-cru-2025-11-20 | Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-20? | 79,315,997 | 79,315,997 |
9edbe1b94e11aded84d5c81ba415083477bcb3b2 | 0x3a5385abf319168799a3d761d93bc9950d04cc07 | 0x359b71e9c06c6002ef929bbe40eaba643a5c4b5c42fb3df2424b75f622255425 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | no | 1 | lal-ovi-ray-2025-11-23 | Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-23? | 79,436,740 | 79,436,740 |
41bd5bcb9551780051fe68eab992131877432fd8 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x5025bebf99e52a3fe6a27493c2dbcb508969a105b323ca131c74310efd57a026 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | 68,628,944 | 68,628,944 |
2750124d0d61b1d2672f2854020e8d96ed0f305c | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x6f13faf7cea4b767f718c309e471215e2e28d6e6ca77e7d77141bde5e0274261 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | 68,707,386 | 68,707,386 |
6920932d43eb82e9977bae345c57a9beccfa14f8 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x7b2a6a81695507858b02e34fb72c0b0092c3bd5a80a78fd13ab855d6eb0138b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-6 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 6? | 68,712,956 | 68,712,956 |
f32284b3d3a364bf69f8961e0e9c7ed170533096 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x8bd4bf4d8206f15fda7eeb87ead0d1e845e3c747418e5c78ac4cc9ff1643c5f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 6? | 68,720,109 | 68,720,109 |
2c199aa0312dbdff3f24a99617e7326b39647437 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x04807382e8fd364bf88962d0d3fae95bb053039e283f452c091c43a161ea86fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on March 11? | 68,922,989 | 68,922,989 |
708b5620569fab9737f67d0f171834d597414117 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x96f9a4ddac6d483c865a4e5a54ead39bcbf8b48ebdb93bd93a0b24e8babff447 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-12 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on March 12? | 68,951,881 | 68,951,881 |
005bd332a92954ddd333e9653d3b8ec6fa42cd21 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x1b5e18269c551eee6cb65755db1e120a5c9a3d7b81b9f96c2cd0b175725d3b62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 13? | 69,006,059 | 69,007,124 |
97ea55b8f5eb35ca5abc048e4f644c49fc87bcc6 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x0db9fbb7744df3883aa75e1301839e58b3fc8c685fcac21c489736979aa68e57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-16 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 16? | 69,135,128 | 69,135,128 |
36470a0a3e848d9a0a351dbb4abfe02525162238 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x23795dc25297240c83a44aedfe9ecf15ec8dbf1dc3d4c7813624c3086aefe7c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 19? | 69,267,127 | 69,267,127 |
ca14b2db322c7b77a2aa9a199044125ff3abae30 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x964f1a5d93f672c35bf1ad1c7121fab5ab88d1b104d73b0dc7634e2939a219dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-22 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or below on March 22? | 69,376,831 | 69,376,831 |
074cd1cac70c6edac83fb9e559b2fe5aed5a7056 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x62a0703e1b7ec4e90ac2f6a85327c8971beeb52839a2f7d3e67cd355ed06e852 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-25 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 25? | 69,496,408 | 69,496,408 |
e499910058eb5b288c596f396fc6161646b67ae0 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x998e5c5ac56a5598b78d11a7fd76108fe9f00ef087d443b5aa65b5fdf10da98c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-31 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 61°F or below on March 31? | 69,738,100 | 69,738,100 |
cdae24f472dc6bbd3e7f335ace4ebd56975b14a9 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x9ff2285ba667ab0759b4586296e4e4860f9af59d72c1e32a20c0867a8b49b929 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on April 2? | 69,813,659 | 69,813,659 |
fc0817fe319cc198d9480d37dd2d62ef83e2c7e7 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x3fcfe4d91931b25a723ea76710c7d45a284c1b528cfef26f8c7fb9f400b9afa5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on April 2? | 69,834,553 | 69,834,553 |
84d7b61c8e446fb371eac35e1014681e2d57aaff | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xfe75303f56145b87b0c5a26b38890988feaea4b2d49424c00873f0d5c802ad37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 0.000416 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets | Will Elon tweet 120-129 times April 4 - 11? | 70,041,187 | 70,041,602 |
d6187f7d851e5446bc8faffb4a6079b73ad60cbb | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x4a7a0b4ac7980cad72c4120dfe5539cff160b09842409591b419db2e1631dc23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-10 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or below on April 10? | 70,135,483 | 70,135,483 |
098f8d7d232816d7f273546631d69de995d99103 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x4c7ad36ea44118c8c9f407ad40d97655f0ba07c00a4974dad3e8f45eebc5c1d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-10 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on April 10? | 70,140,598 | 70,140,598 |
cdd4f5831c93a35fecc1f1fe8668f053f7ed0de4 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x4830919dbaa417acc3a30aca4e5edeedd07abced90ddabbdb95a8ad6c3cfc71a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-10 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on April 10? | 70,142,642 | 70,142,642 |
ad359888bb34f19484ec93e424c01a6fb8408ad9 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xf90c099836de52dddcab4858e15a855ed8bddc26048925c2b1f432c293fdc1fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 0.000055 | will-fartcoin-reach-1-today | Will Fartcoin hit $1 today? | 70,186,518 | 70,186,518 |
c2b5d178cc9eec924c083526e848fa02c743f1f6 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xa1463d558f5160b2650b5416126ecced0478dc1a798705b8acedcda2d58c37ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on April 13? | 70,244,884 | 70,244,884 |
b9f7c5f621d3f10e556024f943bd8a5456eca148 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x22ef1ded59e8e5207a5b77e82bd72f60d6fa5a60b3ef6087f6f3aa02b6b43ce6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 0.000025 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-14 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 58-59°F on April 14? | 70,288,350 | 70,288,350 |
a1e5cf13e3e1006c80bc1d0706b411de884fb74f | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x7dc2d72781730a03c19e0e4a270c2fee6d18572fbfc05dbbb4074b955d2d68c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | no | 0 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-14 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 66-67°F on April 14? | 70,290,781 | 70,290,781 |
723607583d1872189e6d5d45a5664ab33b0a129f | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x93eca3b82ae16edfb9add97b90d6edd8a6da3fe5886a7b4b9553a875214a2e14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on April 14? | 70,319,667 | 70,319,667 |
84c4410c2e4a7527bd6272de79ad0f5844911c1f | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x02d155e7b8ee2e1ba074c4fad02c94ce4e4d72421413368045f14be73a7c034e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 0.000208 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or higher on April 15? | 70,336,262 | 70,336,262 |
34fbbf2698d983ffbc70f79ca03f56b53c40e369 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x2f326f9b8d0dfa25d7da8babdb982b9a767952c0b9e5eb8337b6a5d4c16fbac0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-16 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 47°F or below on April 16? | 70,411,732 | 70,411,732 |
65f47b07bf343fc3452d22a71c5fccbb2c69a315 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xd3da9c442c42609e83c7c749ebf4fa2f977e7d77881bbc3ebc950fb655bc599c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-16 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 58°F or higher on April 16? | 70,411,734 | 70,411,734 |
716dbb764082b5a68a8046d3ff427a7a79b5b16a | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xd938865a81569488faf9b62f4b1b20bfabe5d5803c4b9f4c75a1a8e5f79c2257 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-16 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on April 16? | 70,411,736 | 70,411,736 |
cf1cb220ad63baec2343368f11965ec6c4003d58 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xb7afe6704b9f38a39b38b22dc6f9e2c6030b3e244ff3277a92e5a8d61527a722 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-3 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on May 3? | 71,088,550 | 71,088,550 |
1a0bef01d8c37a1a32038ac86f187985825249f9 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x985de8d1d605c630a0e71c875f4837ddfde3d7c26c2eb9c4b228debb46adfa03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-4 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on May 4? | 71,104,712 | 71,104,712 |
cbcb5ded7299d74c86e9e152364c8d230ebd4b10 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xf10b3aad419a197c416c71a4a032c6900ce8b792db3870968a8fdf3a3639d02a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on May 5? | 71,169,355 | 71,169,355 |
ad52637051a82c98f0ca79602068b152e6d5e1e4 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x9ebcc8ac8f2eefaaec5572555b186e5c6f4a2c22a1a6499d32d57775b0d9effd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice... | yes | 0.000086 | of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 60m and 70m views in first 24 hours? | 71,217,377 | 71,217,618 |
1ddb1de7d7fdecc156888cecc1c18862c4a04ed6 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x527ed4b56ce7b46ede5670c4cc7a88f62aa002d6331cdd3bd77bf1c8a128cf89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-6 | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-7 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on May 7? | 71,255,109 | 71,255,109 |
d7751d74a7efc04e801a472650c5e70bcd9cf882 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x2dfa4bfcbc87e4eca15a501159f9e4f021153571118f0837c34799c1d94fb976 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-6 | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-11 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 11? | 71,392,546 | 71,392,546 |
f21ead0cefb522d78515e2c4746322e18e0bc14b | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xd35da57f76072a80702decca8cac1493599575930130c2646bfda0b4a43bb933 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on March 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-11 | Choi... | no | 0 | turnout-in-2025-romanian-presindetial-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be 12m or more? | 71,439,168 | 71,439,168 |
512082ee3fbe61a93feb15ff560ed81c848cb844 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xcaccfce476e82d8c5c7eb6b445424f5b5f203255d4d38344201a44ebfe2e231b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on March 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on March 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-12 | Choice: ... | no | 0.000122 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-13 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on May 13? | 71,457,890 | 71,457,890 |
e7194b62065cc08f3a231ebaa2e09da4f97e11ee | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x3492db640406407580f812e91d5fa26b74ee2536316191bc13e7919385cafccb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on March 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-13 | Choice: ... | no | 0.000114 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 75–76°F on May 14? | 71,498,916 | 71,498,916 |
01b3c4cff950f79e85d2e6d9c8c2d0afdc722aec | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xf45f50cfb7791e6c52362762c945670913f27a2d41bcfc2e7f28047b80c8acc2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-16 | Choice: ... | no | 0 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59–60°F on May 15? | 71,550,994 | 71,550,994 |
d0047e9ed2ac1c4f8c5f1b555efe0d1f2413e655 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x21a5eef9659971c6e4283ee1dd4d707dc733bc9306e322e2a616dbd70fe3e254 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-19 | Choice: y... | no | 0 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-17 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on May 17? | 71,632,380 | 71,632,380 |
bd2793ab46acc839dbad9ec2934521857c2ecc54 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x62cde0ef60083e7caa4b3767c251ae39750cab6ea04933f6e6707db5eab056e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or below on March 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-22 | Choice: yes... | yes | 0.000062 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or higher on May 21? | 71,792,115 | 71,792,115 |
4b785e6936848fe44bb361fe1c522cb23e86a484 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x0a5b764f8a74a544c4f69be7dad23c36a7fe873583ed87a56bb4779bcbc465bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or below on March 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-25 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 0 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-23 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57–58°F on May 23? | 71,858,005 | 71,858,005 |
dde2ae8d85a293a2abb424ef081ca4242ac39991 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xa54a5387b0d3d2664098ca2e0295e5d3db8a701c197b758dd6167b602f6de7cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 61°F or below on March 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-31 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 0.000029 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on May 30? | 72,143,687 | 72,143,704 |
0cb68b1276b3591834918216e1871d38f1d03fb1 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xf53ef8bf4742a878f9966e68ca9e0bd41f7dcf285a2cdb83f1e16a0ee1271427 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 61°F or below on March 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on April 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-2 | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-2 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on June 2? | 72,306,259 | 72,306,259 |
29dffb9b17d3163cff687ac0fcb296b2adcb2616 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x4bf68b614ce0717fd5da74e8d4e2fdd50ec54744490599a97b9bb194eaf61d4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on April 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on April 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-2 | Choice... | no | 0 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-21-322 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 93-94°F on June 21? | 73,039,922 | 73,039,922 |
c3c8886c78ed2a75af2a73fd0b1bdc8129dd2219 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x0141bc972b2f4a4591e471742426c99da055fa513f41de9dfdc449fdfc60747f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on April 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 120-129 times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0... | no | 0.000035 | us-x-iran-ceasefire-before-july | US x Iran ceasefire before July? | 73,078,053 | 73,078,840 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.