sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
af19d7975c46ba2b528de4c90b223a4352922358 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x31318a5ef13b08d87b7dc34d66de059c996ef96a7989c07e32b758410c1ffc54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 120-129 times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.000416026849625186
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or below on April 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-10 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 0.179958 | us-strikes-iran-on-526 | US strike on Iran on June 22? | 73,081,211 | 73,086,350 |
fd85108ee06a6bb955277b8cf6cf96e35ea0e30b | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xd2055601def8961bea2e6fc911538c64ee181e7ae944f67c78f395e39df43580 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or below on April 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on April 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-10 | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 0.001011 | israel-strike-on-iran-on | Israel strike on Iran on June 24? | 73,081,985 | 73,081,985 |
b4ce07815301c90ad93eea2dbe3cdc4a97ec60e0 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xba23961a26410edb793360345a9e4d3ba66de548a18cd8962690978297794899 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on April 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on April 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-10 | Choice: yes | ... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-b-winner-886 | Will Botafogo win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,150,586 | 73,150,586 |
7fbd77aa6f8a28d2b5bbf4b6eeb3ead563cf578d | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x7fa5e11930654f0922873f4fc01276495be61804c24eb500e7dae1931a0d1e28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on April 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fartcoin hit $1 today? | Event: will-fartcoin-reach-1-today | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.549691992094439e-05
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-atltico-madrid-vs-botafogo | Will Atlético Madrid beat Botafogo? | 73,150,595 | 73,150,595 |
8056a0f36fd02b8af9a211062dabb87c0a2624d2 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xd9b21661d46f39b9ab318b6e6166f7f0c37646b0328c92b06b75b98e52acc065 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fartcoin hit $1 today? | Event: will-fartcoin-reach-1-today | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.549691992094439e-05
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on April 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 0.000204 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be 81°F or higher on June 26? | 73,246,508 | 73,246,508 |
e0813ec63d2b80456fd16e4c54b733a5d5e80a09 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x26d5402b043c1a6ed4dfce0e0f9e0293c8f452bb2c820047964f05b2942f2e8d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on April 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 58-59°F on April 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-14 | Choice: ... | yes | 0.000034 | tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Will Tesla deliver less than 300000 vehicles in Q2? | 73,414,966 | 73,415,505 |
edfdfd85218019f58a32ed608dc61ec55558e04d | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x41c219118cc023028c268aac0e8c5dc6d282127a07d5aec83a15bfb0a0b4ea01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 58-59°F on April 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.499937501562461e-05
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 66-67°F on April 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-1... | no | 0 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-30 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or higher on June 30? | 73,418,024 | 73,418,024 |
90d4213baccab202dfb4071448122adf99906ff1 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x76d20175b325e9c396af318d7d5b9ce52a4f42fe0065f9a6ae4b5f76d52cf6d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 66-67°F on April 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on April 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-14 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 95-96°F on June 30? | 73,433,477 | 73,433,477 |
18b1dca937062508b9209400b3a82387b0dbf241 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x6412c1868e30c861737de65d9083587065909a2ffb1a6ca103476fdd4de6bb12 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on April 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or higher on April 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-15 | Choi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 93-94°F on June 30? | 73,433,478 | 73,433,478 |
178bf6c81f22ff871a3e337dd6c5dfe2740041f1 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x6b79b0d97923fafd34d8f0c08d431b25be819c908cd3c3bdba17e0301da66e5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or higher on April 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00020828993959591752
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 47°F or below on April 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-apr... | no | 0 | how-many-votes-will-reconciliation-bill-get-in-the-house | Will the Reconciliation bill receive 213–214 votes? | 73,478,342 | 73,478,342 |
2f1fe7394c0f64569867fd5ae235833d88be6981 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x9ac3adf39e38abefbf91265ab8280c966523e0108d64607a25262893a3878ddf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 47°F or below on April 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 58°F or higher on April 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-16 | Choice: yes | Con... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or below on July 6? | 73,641,054 | 73,641,262 |
27993a333a0c357c218485c5a498077623a61568 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xbf1daabe5e2ba1b10802eb97e3867831b2f1d900b3de973dccc60cec30e5462e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 58°F or higher on April 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on April 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-16 | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on July 6? | 73,641,262 | 73,641,268 |
40cb2f687357b13df4ac61f237ca1a4461834ca8 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xa37bcb2aec3a653b4d3446406ce605b1e7dc668fc2ee3902ddf7ca6552585f9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on April 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on May 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-3 | Choice: ... | no | 0 | israel-strikes-yemen-by-monday | Israel strikes Yemen by Monday? | 73,655,102 | 73,655,102 |
4740168dd46b12229cfe1ab972b1ed9803c45344 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x5fc37dbe3ee58011d1ac89a80070f9e70d0839d8de27485535b804d8ef6ace01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on May 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on May 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-4 | Choice: yes | ... | no | 0 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-8 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 8? | 73,703,657 | 73,703,657 |
6d57d0f9a91449fa8fa724ceea8e7a2429b40112 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x3891935c7d369b2a22283d8d0ef8dd071201f5a3e806c08f38e739ccee1aaf13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on May 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on May 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-5 | Choice: yes | ... | no | 0 | another-israel-strike-on-yemen-by-friday | Another Israel strike on Yemen by Friday? | 73,735,604 | 73,735,604 |
f24faa2ffbbdd3f4a32e7bc21f235686a5dc9a5e | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x185b0dae79adde4517d692cd78b6e38b68b9fa8caed9449330a9945f583d9ca6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on May 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 60m and 70m views in first 24 hours? | Event: of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 |... | no | 0 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-8 | Will the highest temperature in London be 82°F or higher on July 8? | 73,739,288 | 73,739,288 |
b5412a5588d6e4828d8c843c16bfd22cb6159372 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x64e4e2be8b0cbeab53f96bd383985be00b368ba938ab75c5a0b17fdb1a3035cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 60m and 70m views in first 24 hours? | Event: of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 8.572265099713001e-05
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on May 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in... | no | 0.000503 | will-grok-resume-replying-by-wednesday | Will @Grok resume replying by Wednesday? | 73,761,938 | 73,762,141 |
e9541efed7c3f4aace7588a3383b5ee7b94a78ce | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x78a4c0c9d238ed5a620a77f810fa5f36bcf4be4c268d21729abd12ad7438040b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on May 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-11 | Choice: ... | yes | 0.000087 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-9 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 83-84°F on July 9? | 73,764,849 | 73,764,849 |
be82d23e594af48f3fa2667efd72a53d0c3885ca | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xfdbd55992eebd312cdeb4f43b3ecf0db132cd0669bf11c2338e8e5669376eb1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be 12m or more? | Event: turnout-in-2025-romanian-presindetial-e... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 87-88°F on July 10? | 73,827,243 | 73,827,243 |
7fa8cf67fbc724eecfad763fd7f41b4e3efd44b4 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xdeeb9359690e7763127289f2f8f5fa52433fadca72a28263cad9fb3b8e5cfbb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be 12m or more? | Event: turnout-in-2025-romanian-presindetial-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on May 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-m... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be 82°F or below on July 11? | 73,846,458 | 73,846,458 |
1a452b357f51d8edbfe030a93eca8ea1262d4bae | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xf14ae43b08274ab4b1d5da1e7bd8197dd2bc21feb844245b34260cd939d9d7f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on May 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00012188985532611787
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75–76°F on May 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-o... | no | 0 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on July 13? | 73,916,565 | 73,916,565 |
2566626d9839240c7bcad92c4f31a8b5e947c3c6 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xc7b19ccc7e16828a36b61b3e0b34869795668d4394b2f7800125e8401a774b55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75–76°F on May 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0001136629177906069
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59–60°F on May 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-ma... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on July 13? | 73,919,212 | 73,919,212 |
020c126e3cfde118bfe2037cd27a7f39b0584c75 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x22da61143f9603860b96609f9d102d32a9d14fe15760fc428b5cf3f7f91af96f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59–60°F on May 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on May 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-17 | Choice: ... | no | 0.000029 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-14 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 14? | 73,955,615 | 73,955,650 |
368ea46b98d70b4e9d311c45d6f40e824135430a | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x4e14db805e1a6e3b87292388f4cec05e068ff3ddb5a3f24c6fc449a0551a9907 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on May 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or higher on May 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-21 | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-10 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 10? | 73,966,940 | 73,966,940 |
55af898046ff102f5d900c5800c3afbecec1b2a3 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x019b0b8c0f7785bc8cfbfce0b0b79ed75a2ff17c6997fc081bff748d2b8df4c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or higher on May 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 6.181640877135068e-05
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57–58°F on May 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-o... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 67-68°F on July 15? | 73,991,567 | 73,991,914 |
339df7ef07dee2d153d2cb9b7cd18ab245fb4ab9 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xe1645fd05a28dd5b1ca34b02ed8674e32d48906fc851ae53abc8b9e62dc57910 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57–58°F on May 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice:... | no | 0 | what-will-be-said-during-netflix-q2-2025-earnings-call | Will anyone say "Squid Game" during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call? | 74,075,415 | 74,075,415 |
32354155c76f450d7b92b327a61b8d5b77529f62 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xeae43133accdeccc1426d29bb70ee7f2ff037ebdc3aac8eac8ea3f5d357cb125 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 2.9228469949871524e-05
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on June 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-... | no | 0 | israel-strikes-syria-on | Will Israel strike Syria on July 23? | 74,201,204 | 74,201,204 |
6b8adca2a0ed04e3019804d5983ca70ca248b5e3 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x35bc1bf05846a2d4a72ff03f1c93b8f41ec6a45241a2292ddbb2c919dd7a68f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on June 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 93-94°F on June 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-21-322 | ... | no | 0.000254 | thailand-strikes-cambodia-by-friday | Thailand strikes Cambodia by Friday? | 74,425,403 | 74,425,403 |
987089a2e0a6384433654859a48a5b6e895c7519 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x4f1189b32f59c7f77637c535d0d6ac40fc1d3066d12007fcbdaa763ba391cee8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 93-94°F on June 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-21-322 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: US x Iran ceasefire before July? | Event: us-x-iran-ceasefire-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.512623380896254e-05
3.... | no | 0 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on August 5? | 74,824,412 | 74,824,412 |
919fd7ed6312aa31630f0ca924bfc10d616ba918 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x9fe5033b27146a63f7c18a0879e113839b39695c3733f89acf4bf690a8741393 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US x Iran ceasefire before July? | Event: us-x-iran-ceasefire-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.512623380896254e-05
2. Question: US strike on Iran on June 22? | Event: us-strikes-iran-on-526 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.17995807676014489
3. Question: Israel strike on Iran on June 24? ... | no | 0 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8? | 74,839,505 | 74,839,505 |
0c4cd850b0586f69d1bf2dbc12893966f86d96fc | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x149da927f6d806d8678c21a2ab8d19b4632c0835f6fa34617f4584f3b5648fe1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US strike on Iran on June 22? | Event: us-strikes-iran-on-526 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.17995807676014489
2. Question: Israel strike on Iran on June 24? | Event: israel-strike-on-iran-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0010110517398104315
3. Question: Will Botafogo win Group B at the FIFA C... | no | 0 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8? | 74,839,535 | 74,839,535 |
99aa3d08cc4fdc6ca88348fe025018d2d8e67e01 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0x5f17a838f8b96acae292bcc94649f66458bab4d4624855d198a71483d410bad6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strike on Iran on June 24? | Event: israel-strike-on-iran-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0010110517398104315
2. Question: Will Botafogo win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-b-winner-886 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atlético Ma... | no | 0 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 495–509 times August 1–August 8? | 74,839,548 | 74,839,548 |
2cbe3421af48e215363c74fbb747534741af6416 | 0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60 | 0xca0f92ccb212c058005e76f2183fcb035c3224d0d6a439b6cfc8f9f223b31282 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Botafogo win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-b-winner-886 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atlético Madrid beat Botafogo? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-atltico-madrid-vs-botafogo | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | no | 0 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 1–August 8? | 74,839,796 | 74,840,035 |
7bd068d3d2843cbcbe7199b77ea7f77ad1608c89 | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0xdeed500651a34d11e298bcfb1b3ceaf4b955b3c9435026ec6dec3800429bfcdb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25?
Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | 64,736,710 | 64,736,710 |
ea74d9dc2081d59be3fef67217f3f9d6534a3e3c | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0x03b1313b516dd4a9f2448a771939c96a30dafdf675319cd2ffae6bafa7453b14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15?
Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "conf... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | 65,533,052 | 65,533,052 |
a824f30512f3ee1388d4cedbbd53567a7b5a2b28 | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0x8167715c489ac94e144597c077793cea0aa45f5b107e9c4b85307fb3cea16877 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw?
E... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | 65,533,052 | 65,533,052 |
bafd602b2a50603a58042af7b2d34576154584b2 | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0xa2610270667f42e7f7c006a28d6cfa01ac9e0214c481df706560cb6dc0de9c25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | no | 1 | epl-ast-mac-2024-12-21 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-21? | 65,763,350 | 65,763,350 |
bc4df2067ae3eadfac3d1c8d8c21158c531dfa09 | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0x663a38f08261f801ab1b47670625eae330157ba81be0ed9a534e32a01ed77f52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-not-2024-12-21 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-21? | 65,777,933 | 65,777,933 |
5830db548e54dd7c423ea493a658169d6503cdb5 | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0x69fba444b24e6987a4447bad066314ea69521a4692c5e02685e009c379f514b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-new-2024-12-21 | Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-21? | 65,777,933 | 65,777,933 |
a1178ba0aee4fd7f911c318666c803c172890ebc | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0x0322883fc9a40a02562b3022628b10616a3219ce0196612303834e785bcec354 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | no | 1 | epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22? | 65,814,557 | 65,814,557 |
a073c8147517657754730e9b88e8e48cf8b2c577 | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0x2548472c15f8256f1f336ae2087dc55f5bf47d04ea2c4822d1dd04c3a3c74de2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Will Everton win on 2024-12-22? | 65,814,557 | 65,814,557 |
34ea8dc6d8099517e3d0c80919c6371de61a206d | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0x57a5b7d586a687620a84a46d10d127625915ee6b19f228b6d7ed30b340ea35d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | no | 1 | epl-mun-bou-2024-12-22 | Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-22? | 65,814,557 | 65,814,557 |
947a859d46a2c13d41ada83127def577f667ccd2 | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0xae430ccfe4d23933ce1c918ad56557e46393db2963d3091854720e29bf4d0cf0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-cry-2024-12-26 | Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-26? | 65,971,838 | 65,971,838 |
a81e7637eac47bb1784d09ce3f4e5ae046cbe05e | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0xd3b418f8c657b3e523496187d3564c5b35c081e0c4143a589b147aa89d2d0e64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | no | 1 | epl-wol-mun-2024-12-26 | Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-26? | 65,971,838 | 65,971,838 |
948aa520686aeb224efc718f4ce991d48ad3487c | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0x1eb16a3551e564e5d01394dbb1235b7b344fa447814ffc4f72ff9989d50a4284 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-not-2024-12-29 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-29? | 66,085,142 | 66,085,142 |
6c5b38715311b1c3800ae988d9ea989f3a55f95d | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0x7f9ec5f8474d436d215e9cbd86dd8c0739972b2904c6d3d57ebdd38f65509631 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | no | 1 | epl-lei-mac-2024-12-29 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-29? | 66,085,142 | 66,085,142 |
ed46076ddf1f3d07ba28ad753557ec2de80400ed | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0xba2e013b4e8ba3e300720637a0f55c10c9e68573e411ddcb6deb013a4c4baf39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | no | 1 | epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-29? | 66,085,142 | 66,085,142 |
ae2b8247231305eca6db26f57d62d41fb5dc1966 | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0x82820433bd86a391bd61b92eefe08c877aa8045a9c33846a5d80d25c15ed0669 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-new-2024-12-30 | Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-30? | 66,124,274 | 66,124,274 |
f413c27681d4a4a011ba61f8cfe062128309b41d | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0xa776a7c2556d6af1e1cb825ed27e4db012b12964778c0aec99215aaaff7480e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | no | 1 | epl-bre-ars-2025-01-01 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-01? | 66,207,674 | 66,207,674 |
4de3f52bbe0e0cd7aee301ceccc3a90e2439b42f | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0xcef494589678983304cfac2034a7df02c9fcef0d560582b8e76c01748a8c32e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-new-2025-01-04 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-04? | 66,304,246 | 66,304,246 |
b9ef6b6bccb90b0238aa39c41eb4923005bb7cdc | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0x170547668ab3545ad2b3698b0fc7929d7b5a0fa0bd6b290a8dff9fc97b8e3b95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | no | 1 | epl-mac-wes-2025-01-04 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-04? | 66,314,352 | 66,314,352 |
cae32317b0413f189b1200ac90160bb9702e3670 | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0xc956b10a339271f45125c65a99c6afba4ce7a9105d38006442360f69014c5e60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | no | 1 | epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | 66,314,352 | 66,314,352 |
b854fba209bbfca7073cb45c6c11479794e26dc9 | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0xeb12460f83e80f213e06e26864e14fb6b79a467f0838912daa0c46d377a09834 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-bre-2025-01-04 | Will Brentford win on 2025-01-04? | 66,314,352 | 66,314,352 |
7cbf91e1f29b3b3fa968cdf0aa055b6f7574bbd2 | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0xa23fde75349cd2ef1d57de351466c3fd15fd197b440c3461963cb9d44f8fde01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-06? | 66,392,422 | 66,392,422 |
eaf11fc04cedc4e3785ac509b48cd3a9d51d4dc7 | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0x99027e405731cec721127a7d96da3c28bc9a6d83638596193d91b561a718cbf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,555,686 | 66,555,686 |
8b5e1a2db703c9f061b4a187c557925db067870b | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0x0edd92f077aefe5a9172f9908f7a215af9c0b1615188fcd7d1cdfc62fef38f25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | no | 1 | epl-che-bou-2025-01-14 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-14? | 66,710,098 | 66,710,098 |
226828660a540f8a6a7910f0e9df04c56975de2b | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0x10e29fed7b95d1f0eb0f965d4b3c8fcc304e30d25702f489021599eca44f4b33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-ful-2025-01-14 | Will Fulham win on 2025-01-14? | 66,710,098 | 66,710,098 |
dbb00e2a7f2c98ed24dd8c628631db110bca043a | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0x55917131502ac2a14e686f1a1b660811983043f1b9e96a3c6b57729357cf0201 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | no | 1 | epl-not-liv-2025-01-14 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-14? | 66,710,098 | 66,710,098 |
741ec34c5e2e9623ccc1b94c218968a2433fbda7 | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0x8c19f24cbc7c3abad8374594556ae9da71427b35a62f37124995b9dbd07825fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | no | 1 | epl-ars-tot-2025-01-15 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-15? | 66,751,918 | 66,751,918 |
cf1673693c5b7d6d7b90d4fffc6856dd1c464c47 | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0xeaf91cc5030aa77662c0d349aa9178c10c7255bf217f3bf972844c85dd251efb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-tot-2025-01-15 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-15? | 66,751,918 | 66,751,918 |
7636077fdeacdf511d5ff06a70d5dc4e5a5ff932 | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0x3d52674e91b1354d230d528421a224c3a492ddb975469078b71c88680bb396f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-tot-2025-01-19 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-19? | 66,907,383 | 66,907,383 |
d29f678f7aa29a29ea2ce2d5c1555a9775bd4fbb | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0x5920c3f3eb097f15412dd9322e20ee6216dbbf851ad4403a1ffa005b0c45cdb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-bri-2025-01-19 | Will Brighton win on 2025-01-19? | 66,907,383 | 66,907,383 |
a9d934c6502a8c0c2480bc0ee9149906c54b1195 | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0x7e7f6fa6eacfe9f83201e07730b413522d9713a6b84ae401440f94dd4a02276a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-not-2025-01-25 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-25? | 67,152,495 | 67,152,495 |
7794f5d2cd8f6db9eec1e24121ca7973075120bd | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0x46d717e22636ceff3802b4d30789c44482ed8e7e2b45f86ba89ca36efda85f8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-m... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-bre-2025-01-26 | Will Crystal Palace vs. Brentford end in a draw? | 67,179,486 | 67,179,486 |
76bd83aec8d548051b34ef23b5f3a944a0f05b3a | 0x3aa1db460dc9d8b397548a7056ea61bd3405637b | 0xbf6e9b2b62f59247bd369dcbac634c43a7d49f23d33fecef4d0d01744fe5583f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-21? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-bre-2025-01-26 | Will Brentford win on 2025-01-26? | 67,179,486 | 67,179,486 |
da7fc0ff84a35757181993323166be6ce832ed9b | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0x797c36af16d8c633ec0fa788dc8b5e438042888650d77ebee7887ee9b1f03458 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray?
Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | 62,298,437 | 62,298,437 |
d26e466675ecdb4dc6c7c6a5f575a78ab0838b55 | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0x0bea485004e12b1e657038fd8f0244c444381687b12d76079c184122b8f52432 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt?
Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {... | no | 1 | europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | 62,512,632 | 62,512,632 |
c8b7360b1ffb4cf0c7830b41bf164f3fd6b66fa8 | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0xc20c8c1d510f9c4e5b2470c494bd96bb1afe7a92ae20afdd140d58df217e6c78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahc... | no | 1 | europa-league-fenerbahce-vs-union-saint-gilloise | Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | 62,512,632 | 62,512,632 |
be2703a34541e4047d4f94149d74933e8ef3529a | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0x3ec4ac3790c2f1c6ff9aac618354d0db33b570b5e3e4b9ff2a4f542645778c79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | Event: e... | yes | 1 | ucl-arsenal-vs-paris-saint-germain | Will Arsenal beat Paris Saint-Germain? | 62,917,329 | 62,917,329 |
a4ccb8645ca7abeb571360d0662952f86d4eb284 | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0x71cfe295e8a1fbf51a101fd4ee62273cf4379aba119a878962fd7d72ab3a15ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | Event: e... | no | 1 | ucl-barcelona-vs-young-boys | Will Young Boys beat Barcelona? | 62,917,329 | 62,917,329 |
f87c2c94568140eade95fa2935bc5258a6d6e5fc | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0x884385a47d5b9a7b5078e66d391d9409d1f9ccf87868d0ae896dae8fce7407d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | Event: e... | yes | 1 | ucl-slovan-bratislava-vs-manchester-city | Will Manchester City beat Slovan Bratislava? | 62,917,329 | 62,917,329 |
0d5ce420d71fe2ca222f07c48e34e237b7d1a977 | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0xd21ed8f60af44801db0784045bc31b88447d6afaa5683dfd458f70c7ae63c7e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | Event: e... | no | 1 | ucl-arsenal-vs-paris-saint-germain | Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Arsenal? | 62,917,329 | 62,917,329 |
191dc73a9626216cfd11eb3f6e4e222a3d03bab4 | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0x1042bcfd2221c943d97fd07f170ad97eef984e6be64e785845249b41b5565acc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | Event: e... | yes | 1 | mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Will Daniel Chapo win the Mozambican presidential election? | 63,473,591 | 63,473,591 |
5005645c0cb6f53cc2723a81e74a743d1d491eab | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0x762ac188de66c7daed5f8473400a8da83bbf3b4cbf1e29489933229bc576b360 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | Event: e... | no | 1 | ucl-manchester-city-vs-sparta-praha | Will Sparta Praha beat Manchester City? | 63,473,591 | 63,473,591 |
83a147abfdb68ea5761c8414b1d1505d7c27aabd | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0x3c9a94239a10378f05d313e73734b77f5976ca24fb65711cc86c99d3800a5013 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | Event: e... | yes | 1 | porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | 63,758,100 | 63,758,100 |
65e625084e89fe58b375c50a58c0808dabef22aa | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0x657d0915552c972ce20338785283cd3d1bb058218d6acddd7f0a6b8fc52dc9d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | Event: e... | yes | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Nico Williams win the Ballon d’Or? | 63,758,100 | 63,758,100 |
c22f9cd4fd5b3a320a3df88ff9df6ba35478fbda | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0x65a43d0a63b57427ee497da000c382ba0a33652901d1d59b022a604b0f5da5cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | Event: e... | no | 1 | fortaleza-mayoral-election-2024 | Will another candidate win the 2024 Fortaleza mayoral election? | 63,758,100 | 63,758,100 |
0a164e195b1716fa84925daefeb47bc0f2178aa8 | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0x84530ac6958d64b44e9f3764dd91af5937a6102f2f9e9af918ce937194a3dcde | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | Event: e... | no | 1 | curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Will Cristina Graeml win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | 63,758,100 | 63,758,100 |
8b7927e075cc1ccd5a4e331dd30c9ccf896b89fd | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0x4302790173d1f5b438ac937d1fd64360f8a134589f3d490626f7c1f67b2b3611 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | Event: e... | no | 1 | balance-of-power-2024-election | 2024 Balance of Power: Other | 64,357,521 | 64,357,521 |
2644d17786ac253996818f1bcde88f3e7e3f5a01 | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0x460d5107b2fd8089d00f9ba23a8f287bdd2a7fb5905502ded38ff9c515a56bcc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | Event: e... | no | 1 | nevada-margin-of-victory | Will the Republican candidate win Nevada by 4.0% or more? | 65,038,554 | 65,038,554 |
47635fc7f0446c0a5fa6988e0f5cd65e6889b3c6 | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0x87249ba3fc6a660bfcd6165b941fa7b3dc96924e04b2e59a00be69c9866c43f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | Event: e... | yes | 1 | 2024-irish-general-election | Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | 65,128,546 | 65,128,546 |
e2a13646be22e4f883b252989813e8e41af66650 | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0x76a0a87c2636a9428fac314b248efe7d31c6f042acccaed9e714f7ddbf6fb83e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | Event: e... | no | 1 | us-election-tipping-point-state | Will New Hampshire be the tipping point state? | 65,639,185 | 65,639,185 |
d145fdee49e44e5dd3a43a7d74cb920616bc4f6c | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0x77424e91e4933ba8319c514dea8c16a166b9fe40ff46414c830b2f37466db5cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | Event: e... | yes | 1 | closest-state-in-the-presidential-election | Will Wisconsin be the closest state? | 65,639,185 | 65,639,185 |
43afc62f82c446eef0d2584c12396c6fbec847c0 | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0x9fdc4c7b35db7e7299a9f41c2b76644dd9d2923852da5881035f0bbec2d5e1ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | Event: e... | yes | 1 | which-3rd-party-candidate-wins-most-votes | Will Jill Stein get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? | 65,639,185 | 65,639,185 |
8d8e3c3651b30ebc916e0ee0639d7afb9adfaa4f | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0xa0c2c2d65ec08290beea0d09174af6c69687793f99719cae5f15a810bf65a99c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | Event: e... | no | 1 | us-election-tipping-point-state | Will Florida be the tipping point state? | 65,639,185 | 65,639,185 |
969807c564dd0e4fcd39019e5b70636b3273a4d9 | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0x1674811cafd247b0884098f871117ee6a0d73ce4a39985c4968459c902041b44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | Event: e... | no | 1 | sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | 66,028,561 | 66,028,561 |
2861348fc7dbdad998ed1f09bf67a2e34d9fa114 | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0xcb0d6a19548dda99b6352e77d71b5a1a55f810d8054372294b4bc50b990a2948 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | Event: e... | yes | 1 | mufasa-the-lion-king-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross less than $52m on 3-day opening weekend? | 66,028,561 | 66,028,561 |
20db1d8a02fc404da23bf92c98414465e7dcfa34 | 0x3ab9c5b289134324e596444c192ac6983bcf0800 | 0xf5ac0935ca22c18e17e600e31b569a2e9892f0727a35ccd9178095b725e909a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Galatasaray? | Event: europa-league-galatasaray-vs-paok | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | Event: e... | no | 1 | sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60-69? | 66,028,561 | 66,028,561 |
ba65587d94bc3154247089a1c53dd1dc6792cbed | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0xf4b3608e4c8066958a403212662dae7ea2852b46ff3e8fcc0326ed0402729df2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15?
Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | 75,268,273 | 75,268,273 |
9ec2b67ec8661f8207aec46f628cb54000813b19 | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x160581bf5c3f47bd3bd762c7c33af6d0626612312b2d73da9c49dddae4a7e4cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22?
Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "co... | yes | 1 | lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | 75,549,979 | 75,549,979 |
fde00666955660f71672c3b37ba4e14b0cf71fdc | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0xb02d4c02ee3365df6c28d117f3d85a1d53bd80aa9797f11e95eb924910ec05eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22?
Event: fl1... | yes | 1 | fl1-psg-ang-2025-08-22 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | 75,549,979 | 75,549,979 |
82198878d51af52388bf8685f5c1e8e2396f50ba | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x0b607047698c485944dccc3eedbe620885808e3bf61a09bf943fcbdf279c0481 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | ortega | 1 | ufc-fight-night-walker-vs-zhang | UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Sterling | 75,588,173 | 75,588,173 |
c90c07540b71b0a271c47ca6d473e6926f9a1fe4 | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x4adea7e46cd2298f1d447a4d38ffd0145d34d5639ee18206f8ef3e7134f756ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | no | 1 | epl-mac-tot-2025-08-23 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-23? | 75,588,173 | 75,588,173 |
1f6e536fee3df9eaaa683ee9b1f697779d634bdf | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0xaa2014664918ee59e5d435789ae64d805f3fe27c6deb7cbdeeb38ce33648faeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | no | 1 | epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? | 75,854,706 | 75,854,706 |
9f56a096b634ea7d439271931735d70a270333a3 | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x218f7e2ee10dde16a828ab0cb9b809ebd2471ea54c687ceaced14c4eec9a7ffb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | no | 1 | epl-bri-mac-2025-08-31 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-31? | 75,958,396 | 75,958,396 |
ea07e0f6c7dea61e7175199899ed3aa8e6d7a7f7 | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x26f4725797645ecd4f447502b3a276fb5a41698e8df57fdbda56c94911d84575 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | yes | 1 | sea-juv-int-2025-09-13 | Will Juventus win on 2025-09-13? | 76,416,058 | 76,416,058 |
e09583967bcc7d9842c81c5637845e502545ede3 | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0xe020b0ae1023629244b660a36db5fa20647475a8e79e0d2e6357207332ba4de2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | no | 1 | epl-bre-che-2025-09-13 | Will Brentford win on 2025-09-13? | 76,418,643 | 76,418,643 |
7135017b5735448bc96ecd457f694b196d1c5e1a | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x0fd3636e701edbabffcd18b94cb8a43c26f60f2147c01545fd930ab055d1e79f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | no | 1 | epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-25? | 76,448,927 | 76,448,927 |
a9e8d98da271acee90b0c37962d64ddde7ad66be | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x97e0140353a3441e025ded8a6b70a1072e89b8d9a1f8cc07a24e21e7d01f56fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | no | 1 | bun-aug-bay-2025-08-30 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-30? | 76,448,927 | 76,448,927 |
2fd41843ddb6a56422debf73944490518a7c9ec8 | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0xf9dbfae17f61432d3c843a6265d6b001f62eee0a1e58ce3b5a5a0dd10ebd91d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | no | 1 | lal-bet-bil-2025-08-31 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-08-31? | 76,448,927 | 76,448,927 |
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