sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7db5aed0b74720df92dc41eeec67e377c8e1b105 | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x1f07f35e6ee6d881cf38abd0b945765a013d4b19bb7703f5c6019a19a4000a0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | no | 1 | ucl-ran-bru-2025-08-19 | Will Club Brugge win on 2025-08-19? | 76,448,928 | 76,448,928 |
eb1f7c9ff341aa161a766fcd9dbe8d4f02521f9c | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0xa08c0125b6642a0b0fe081faa3f76973746f1a915a0c95cdb1dde5c2ecbd5ffc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | no | 1 | bun-dor-uni-2025-08-31 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-08-31? | 76,448,928 | 76,448,928 |
dcb811fd7a10bd4d789d12b265110017a2f3587f | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0xd62a43379a790c695d40bb724c669a87c237aaf7799907d00e14fe7badb573cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-ata-2025-09-17 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-09-17? | 76,580,104 | 76,580,104 |
e5a365fbaddc59c4c4896ce0ee0b0f16c042a60c | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x3bacb765b4b30303a22bcf1f61372b13363bcd3742c4a72d85ca2c62b2edf49a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | yes | 0.021279 | ucl-bay-cfc-2025-09-17 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-17? | 76,580,104 | 76,742,016 |
4d43e269a3be0b0d6f6dd0ad7dcb1e0703d7cb76 | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x6f18d3500f82e6e1918d73e59e6a03c752621ff16cadd028f95b126ad19f1b39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-che-2025-09-20 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-20? | 76,700,168 | 76,700,168 |
a310ae3d7e369795eee75d1d709f2fda5c118036 | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x099e8c4083a5e7ba05290ace011aa6bba27814450cfc4b642609e229af18adbc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | yes | 0.000869 | epl-bou-new-2025-09-21 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-21? | 76,733,886 | 76,742,015 |
bf0e2744fbdf0a267a144fb64da80737f5812436 | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0xd84038d257ee2be579e71661823d8f4978e4f54cb566fe31fd4ee5a353052787 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | no | 0 | epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-21? | 76,741,988 | 77,228,932 |
b02f487615594c3097fb6277b0b00a6e5f7365ed | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x28a2c341bde029fb59f598c802bbd04763f634aa5ec642a7b016dfaee0000582 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | no | 1 | ucl-mac-nap-2025-09-18 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-18? | 76,742,015 | 76,742,015 |
10f5811c179da4127d85c97596708eee9adb223f | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x315bc10cea2926ed706b38c329481c7c7cb341e8aff417019c736347734c5c8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | no | 1 | lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | 76,742,015 | 76,742,015 |
76136cffaf004e9e6b77a755f0f3dfaa8c1a13df | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x46992267801cc03bde3f36afaaca57180f7cfb62f3cd9e9d500b81b938348c09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | no | 1 | lal-bar-get-2025-09-21 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-21? | 76,742,015 | 76,742,015 |
5557e556c53f3c57985509aeee8cfc462195d454 | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x806db4ef536678fab5390d642d965e6b446dd2d646cfa94f8218f2e900a32b6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | no | 1 | epl-che-bri-2025-09-27 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-27? | 76,982,581 | 76,982,581 |
c0f1945d38659e675f12509424626c300315e90e | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x08fd8c7cfce5d959368b3b6bffb4e503c17b7cd6099c770a46ca296baa12ddf5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | yes | 1 | ucl-kay-rma-2025-09-30 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-30? | 77,103,372 | 77,103,372 |
46680f5019d846b11b38091adb583dc07d740690 | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x1c54bb7b4b94ed15224cc69b465668a3f0a80bc3b6a909b0877d721cb3ec71b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | yes | 1 | ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | 77,199,427 | 77,199,427 |
a6e4924a4a57beb69ec2692f9d2a6f7142e25a77 | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x23ba6893bf11ac39eac06d3e373f9656d46193c07d52f8fabcd5ed3651231289 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | yes | 1 | fl1-olm-psg-2025-09-22 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-22? | 77,228,932 | 77,228,932 |
a672d3608f9b80c515b9bfd7ad373263f0f96513 | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x2a466b96d679bc94db4338f8b0c21aaf640cd5cdffb1908762861bf81f0929c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | no | 1 | lal-bar-rso-2025-09-28 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-28? | 77,228,932 | 77,228,932 |
e063b8ad4b1589436cbc98a41d3ebda3edc9679d | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x9f37858c746173751213fdf8efaf1a16ad479cdee1b08249fe14a850d6f8a771 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-mun-2025-09-27 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-27? | 77,228,932 | 77,228,932 |
5169d23426a9a1c542ca792f3347581af98415f5 | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0xab3eac189555b839ddaa859d54d621193f6fe304ccee3b24c6600d54237b658b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | no | 1 | lal-ovi-bar-2025-09-25 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25? | 77,228,932 | 77,228,932 |
9d8152d031a02761b1edcad2f5141703f8aec48f | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0xf25b3a43d717e2b6cc164231359867d845b36be4263458d75155744f649d5bfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | no | 1 | sea-nap-pis-2025-09-22 | Will Napoli win on 2025-09-22? | 77,228,932 | 77,228,932 |
88aadb80bd1353c5794ffec6c961fc5ab4f173b3 | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0xc6b734cb08be267e4f3d9b8fa377ee33aa8e1810875ccd565946b904dc607364 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-20... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-mac-2025-10-05 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-05? | 77,314,627 | 77,314,627 |
d540bdce3d2a85e499dfc25af49d6807c1b6c802 | 0x3ae5c492d2193b1a9e7702665807bdf82a3e53c8 | 0x4ae3f62847da298b9f375e5dbdcaccfeb836b4330b7ffae11653a137ca846dad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-22? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Sterling | Event: ufc-fight-n... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-eve-2025-10-18 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-18? | 77,862,050 | 77,862,050 |
e832fb605794d858a7819d3d8982a157b6699a89 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x32080658dcf05916c41c1d2225bc806beef11d440a24cc0d73eea5a1bed4e9e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | 75,154,407 | 75,154,407 |
902347bbd492a12e170d20b476f41eca5661c64a | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0xf8945f9f7b7c05bfd878a000863d470b5f36dcdb9d27302a8a07e5a4e3d1e07d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13?
Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | 75,176,357 | 75,176,357 |
8e3ae90ff51c0bcb20cb4f16894c50502c2a8c12 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x45ad2d311fa224492a775154a9500724b6b3563c9b3df1bc6f980398e5f84213 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be 88°F or higher on August 14? | 75,220,196 | 75,220,196 |
7966fea3407a1a7c1db5a89114db8e46e3416dea | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0xe1ac15012db4c60273d88f876df5485e363909dfbe6f6d2de25c89a203d541b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be 77°F or below on August 14? | 75,220,196 | 75,220,196 |
dfd3f443270fecd6d036c9183af5279f93fc9bb6 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x12ab6dae0cebdaf9153c572ee5ae15eb247cb95ab9c180b81b2cbf1cbb280b41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-14 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or higher on August 14? | 75,235,762 | 75,235,762 |
d2dbe58871f3dbf249adbfe5c4aa07b41dc0c37c | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x1d48d9e4336b7b6cd45b713350c14ea919d1cfef9b648229dc0f5a1bc2daaac2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-15 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or below on August 15? | 75,264,829 | 75,264,829 |
32281d651858800f6d13c5a3f54d111d29b3a247 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x422a8265e0d13d162a90cb7a3ccd771faff8305c3f3478659aecdcc7b0cd6bc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be 78°F or below on August 15? | 75,264,829 | 75,264,829 |
a3ae5628e168507b5e0db0c08c195c8f2694e11e | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x498f84a676111cc5e333eab5aa9f5106b2bbbb9cd17b3e7dc1379e85e131aa88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-15 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on August 15? | 75,264,829 | 75,264,829 |
54c9c0cb627800a7852dce20d81ba9f7e2c3b772 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x502aa4e30088831ceb3dee2766b0d46095a377ee8fc44393316c1e4a3cb8b084 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be 89°F or higher on August 15? | 75,264,829 | 75,264,829 |
84d884c4793362792ad56ba6fce514a34b4f6d94 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x83a7c71e860ddaccfc75db2e94de07f879bca5f1e583aa6150c776e415e84023 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 15? | 75,264,829 | 75,264,829 |
692dcd454485b45f9d8381cfa480f632dba45ec9 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x31d2785ee02ba67e49e74553673af3c982b29a5845d102740039a470d26c6f13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-15 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 91°F or higher on August 15? | 75,273,991 | 75,273,991 |
e7ba8776565af387285d3a38c6277747b7d36cf1 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x05f7dd06c10eed08438127f04cdc855195376caa357d1b0425265c47cad8ae6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-16 | Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 16? | 75,306,369 | 75,306,369 |
2bc503d921ac8121d2d562b9bdb1af7b41ea02ee | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x7ec07c7ac5d7178bcd4716749e25bb2dcdc384676283148af93cc12999d8b9d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-16 | Will the highest temperature in London be 79°F or higher on August 16? | 75,306,369 | 75,306,369 |
0b6b77671298f40d39374e2604ec3e6603ece4e0 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0xa2c993d24fa9aaad8bc6256578d39acb34257c33251246a4835b5a4031a7fd99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or below on August 16? | 75,306,369 | 75,306,369 |
c6672dbfe59389fd4822d5dcfb27ec08ffcf37f7 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x36eba3c76c814aa3648a60cbb44b102c54d2646ce12795b15de47e68d3b9bd79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-17 | Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 17? | 75,345,035 | 75,345,035 |
6c1df22a82ffa82c6ff92fa602d582ea616c0b33 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x8370432413c45e7743a381b6330cceb3ed94540e8c83a1883f565eac50d39985 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 89°F or higher on August 16? | 75,345,035 | 75,345,035 |
099a3edf3cdf23ee5d292fda255b6308e909ee55 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0xa24c8dbfa04d063f64dd329cf61240d9d5e08a680ee2a54811e887d9c38c77cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-17 | Will the highest temperature in London be 79°F or higher on August 17? | 75,345,035 | 75,345,035 |
f86bf54bd8d12528aa03cfca10587ce6011316e9 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0xa1046da4731c0a3ee545f328a39256a92c0c16c9c9c40251e62504fe339ff4b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-18 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on August 18? | 75,351,198 | 75,351,198 |
43e918c949b414a0c6feca7052311419dfb3b511 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x29d3b3ebdb7df261f93fac9b88b04b21b692ccf3885e4fcdd3daba7b9151f235 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or below on August 18? | 75,357,521 | 75,357,521 |
65f1a7d7c003991aef1f67460ea8085eea5d75c1 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x200f7ae53b2c36940e1b2563e3f6e75cafd26132d0a426d25e85c101c818d8a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or higher on August 18? | 75,381,394 | 75,381,394 |
c554beef17e5cd4b866eb0e2f0b498bc299d1c45 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0xbaa0539b0c220497c369f483fc5e92d41e742c69efc2f3d11b0a5adafa2df1bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-18 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 82°F or higher on August 18? | 75,390,875 | 75,390,875 |
dbf66c5797079fc0c94664c6f18c09925e2cf751 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x0507c7ac1ee85773490af2d6385af3016835e0d1d385b2a57c200754bfcf113c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | 75,400,433 | 75,400,433 |
de5cd7efde224efad7bdaa9f02cfd899589f691f | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x0d1e9a30f3fd3abaddcf23c6b3cd697a7addbb6285a30aa38bfa2feee74922ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be 79°F or higher on August 19? | 75,421,909 | 75,421,909 |
91c5a7310db628298a1abbc9576bb44fc685e0cd | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x258093b2a8f64a0ca643d559df8cdabdb8c38d0af655b8c0e8db6c4b1f4d06b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-19 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 70°F or below on August 19? | 75,421,909 | 75,421,909 |
b3933a839e4d49731ed4920ffe04616d0d7e4e49 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0xc974da97c1714a1fe4648533d91b441251cf7547c71349d2b4ee3059ec3599fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be 62°F or below on August 20? | 75,421,909 | 75,421,909 |
1ed9fb3122e547654de983e963a5f963c07d8182 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x312e97e44170266917ba169109bc825a3e427b46ead3e53c50d7b4d83fe96d79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-19 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or higher on August 19? | 75,438,541 | 75,438,541 |
b3ddd412d190bf1075ff06db2d20fe9b8a0d3ba0 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x5f61da16e23df012c915eee675acc38c9d7d9e55c90137797f43e45293f4189b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-20 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or higher on August 20? | 75,471,223 | 75,471,223 |
5b57fb4307636fc8cd737c0ac1a73e81d781503a | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x84cf394f7ff12bba065fe8a9cc2028f0d97091f94160799670b2193e071fa531 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be 73°F or higher on August 20? | 75,471,223 | 75,471,223 |
e8ffc325a3a931fc699cee1fa70b0d87393dfe67 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x58ecad53a0b53c390df5bf7113d87470232af684d361603e7c6483375d57da6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be 73°F or higher on August 21? | 75,510,888 | 75,510,888 |
48147518d66ed8cab539be8bfc681f713a190677 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0xd38886ae8752e71e3e5d2f3ec2a666bd0c8fa2e378ded5014b60e5562327a607 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-21 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on August 21? | 75,516,978 | 75,516,978 |
a5389b7987dafd22dd73329974a0b2d039a32eef | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x866a89c4feaafd4697e0190e9fdb92e891c1dff75fe83335bf5340ec859f582a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-22 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on August 22? | 75,554,621 | 75,554,621 |
a6a5d0a6d143d689d1e80d39991eb38ce896df93 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0xd825f87d4e0bd8f0095894a64e13e0e74efecbb8e93cfba57190457f0d6812a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 88°F or higher on August 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-14 ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 22? | 75,554,621 | 75,554,621 |
92d970ad33f8e2f9e0838cbe92604b357b18638c | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0xfc7b116c04e96a2b48c81e38c03bc754de9c62fd9c8170098958b1e51301c962 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 88°F or higher on August 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 77°F or below on August 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-14 | Ch... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-22 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on August 22? | 75,554,621 | 75,554,621 |
6627cb861db0ed4422a26255578d25ce3bf6b70f | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x0af9c656fc8d93716f930b4f113e5e7ce30e13b8f157db45b973b59cd4c0c837 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 77°F or below on August 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or higher on August 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-14 ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-23 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or below on August 23? | 75,591,436 | 75,591,436 |
5109650925db53f08a675a4db5b134d251f4d71c | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0xa2f6241bfe22bbc2b14137536e35a7f662192250dc79bab2f808b8efbb5eb500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or higher on August 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or below on August 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-23 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 89°F or higher on August 23? | 75,591,436 | 75,591,436 |
a44a5c3948a6f79420ac33f59b47ad24065f7d7a | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x5afa025c6a2ad1ac287df19bc03e218b9937fc13017bcad669b3a5aa6036898d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or below on August 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 78°F or below on August 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-15 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-24 | Will the highest temperature in London be 70°F or below on August 24? | 75,604,932 | 75,604,932 |
0a51934c50b757668396babdad947bd1b0d92f30 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x8764cff112e2de6f7e1cc86491a55654c24f246d8c4cd88d9cbf642ed5154944 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 78°F or below on August 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on August 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-15... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-24 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on August 24? | 75,633,941 | 75,633,941 |
ef5a42360f1a89f9f50f98004e74cdbc6d032bdf | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0xe0e7af6ca518d149c5af3dc82de4b08ea4ffbe70e4ddf61e7ac9df7f524ab597 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on August 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 89°F or higher on August 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-1... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-24 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 24? | 75,633,941 | 75,633,941 |
645e83dd01ce1f25cff139f95b4fceb9fbc01a97 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0xe4ac24712445de45f7146121fbf184c8a2767b8a635e332032b3f196d9d9ab14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 89°F or higher on August 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-15 | ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-24 | Will the highest temperature in London be 81°F or higher on August 24? | 75,633,941 | 75,633,941 |
1ff46b899ae314616fe8d9d108b770d3754e6220 | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x12ff084ca41d1fd538de9655b1bd73f5f893fb0be2970b8e61d9de43bc06925b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 91°F or higher on August 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-1... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-25 | Will the highest temperature in London be 74°F or below on August 25? | 75,663,117 | 75,663,117 |
ae57bf4ba83a16d7f5ba50af586043434e813a8e | 0x3b10d8aff858e72879a47b72fde807dafa3a755c | 0x2206ce36e78a4af4de60805adfbf0e32919bece99c1ffbea3a4f51735249bbc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 91°F or higher on August 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-16 ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-25 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or below on August 25? | 75,663,117 | 75,663,117 |
8ce022abdd285a10dc0b64290062bd77c752fb5a | 0x3b3a59060c869d91366d299bd9b52cfdaa091440 | 0x879894aff501be9389c87e6e372238f95a5a9635821df6e558422ab8ef168f1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-09-27?
Event: rus-ros-kra-2025-09-27
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | rus-ros-kra-2025-09-27 | Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-09-27? | 77,036,950 | 77,036,950 |
be4abbbc68a61d712b58224c21588012499ffa7c | 0x3b3a59060c869d91366d299bd9b52cfdaa091440 | 0xce48b94770c1b0bee28f530e342957f53d725c7768ea087f262cea3f0b25d6aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-ros-kra-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-09-27?
Event: rus-zen-ore-2025-09-27
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "co... | no | 0 | rus-zen-ore-2025-09-27 | Will FK Zenit win on 2025-09-27? | 77,036,950 | 77,036,950 |
900bf6fba14ba5e5bd35cf7a72a9ef2bb13dbefb | 0x3b3a59060c869d91366d299bd9b52cfdaa091440 | 0x2b6c4cfdef9458fee138f4b1445035d7e25e493685cc565f38037c2121ebf8e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-ros-kra-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-zen-ore-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-10-02?
Event: uel-mta-din-2... | yes | 1 | uel-mta-din-2025-10-02 | Will Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-10-02? | 77,208,304 | 77,208,304 |
392393f91ce53c5a0beaeae501f7ed0d6fcc1428 | 0x3b3a59060c869d91366d299bd9b52cfdaa091440 | 0x40be6d0e9dd5d0c8bf96893ea388137255b03ac49be4727ef2f092adeec3ff0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-ros-kra-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-zen-ore-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-mta-din-2025-10-02 |... | no | 0.333333 | uel-pao-goa-2025-10-02 | Will Panathinaikos win on 2025-10-02? | 77,208,304 | 77,208,304 |
d8cddbd58ba69dccebe58c00af8f3141c024ffda | 0x3b3a59060c869d91366d299bd9b52cfdaa091440 | 0x5bebe1ede7ba9d9deeec0eb88979ac50ff0b5a54bff4313aba6a20a93cf0c3cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-ros-kra-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-zen-ore-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-mta-din-2025-10-02 |... | yes | 1 | uel-gkn-fer-2025-10-02 | Will Ferencvarosi TC win on 2025-10-02? | 77,208,304 | 77,208,304 |
63b206e9459323d095893be651c6954b30630686 | 0x3b3a59060c869d91366d299bd9b52cfdaa091440 | 0x7bb73037ff34b937168cf7ff8f8ef0a3304111b9d293df1e183c5c4fc9eb1369 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-ros-kra-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-zen-ore-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-mta-din-2025-10-02 |... | yes | 1 | uel-stuk-ran-2025-10-02 | Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz win on 2025-10-02? | 77,208,304 | 77,208,304 |
620a6ad9330285ef53de2f4aefd5ae19b8c7e48c | 0x3b3a59060c869d91366d299bd9b52cfdaa091440 | 0x86b2fd7e1c4af567353bb2b5f52248f9ed40990a8adf386d7a0009b9183cdaf7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-ros-kra-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-zen-ore-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-mta-din-2025-10-02 |... | yes | 1 | uel-fcsb-byn-2025-10-02 | Will BSC Young Boys win on 2025-10-02? | 77,208,304 | 77,208,304 |
6599a9be02b2a9b6a8357feba70d6bb076062840 | 0x3b3a59060c869d91366d299bd9b52cfdaa091440 | 0x9be3aae7f8b9217abaa26e8a9ef66ee57564c4c2c2c5a0675a434b42248d2548 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-ros-kra-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-zen-ore-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-mta-din-2025-10-02 |... | yes | 0.2 | uel-fey-ast-2025-10-02 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-02? | 77,208,304 | 77,208,304 |
98fb71e54ca175d52421030f008818291d203de5 | 0x3b3a59060c869d91366d299bd9b52cfdaa091440 | 0xed1fc16c1df1267a1da15c4fc18759922d7e44e14b0143e7a7ebf2f3af946579 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-ros-kra-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-zen-ore-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-mta-din-2025-10-02 |... | yes | 1 | uel-bas-stu-2025-10-02 | Will FC Basel win on 2025-10-02? | 77,208,304 | 77,208,304 |
971d1c9bfa192e14ec69f069c54735cf647aa07b | 0x3b3a59060c869d91366d299bd9b52cfdaa091440 | 0xf7da51f6d461e78c95f371be09c16062c41ffabd93c83af3ed5ef688d20cb045 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-ros-kra-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-zen-ore-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-mta-din-2025-10-02 |... | yes | 1 | uel-clt-bra-2025-10-02 | Will SC Braga win on 2025-10-02? | 77,208,304 | 77,208,304 |
478b0ed85e1ec3f51244c2dfba3f22ef01a35587 | 0x3b3a59060c869d91366d299bd9b52cfdaa091440 | 0x0b257754c84d9003169e57853c0a673c2714ff455b06bd064cd438bfec5b1011 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-ros-kra-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-zen-ore-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-mta-din-2025-10-02 |... | yes | 1 | uel-bol-scf-2025-10-02 | Will Bologna vs. Sport-Club Freiburg end in a draw? | 77,208,306 | 77,208,306 |
12b3d1bdae70b2e414b9e7ee5b80a12f1fb4cdfe | 0x3b3a59060c869d91366d299bd9b52cfdaa091440 | 0x21d009b7acc1d5137796fcb903ccba1a538d5d4bf084ada5e2177b9ed192cee3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-ros-kra-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-zen-ore-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-mta-din-2025-10-02 |... | yes | 1 | uel-pao-goa-2025-10-02 | Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-10-02? | 77,208,306 | 77,208,306 |
92a84f2110f2218813999a1eafb6a41cfcc134b1 | 0x3b3a59060c869d91366d299bd9b52cfdaa091440 | 0x4ffe923dd1bca2de7985cc1d7097def096116cac80fd861369bc88ec5e6970ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-ros-kra-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-zen-ore-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-mta-din-2025-10-02 |... | no | 0.333333 | uel-clt-bra-2025-10-02 | Will Celtic win on 2025-10-02? | 77,208,306 | 77,208,306 |
2367cd3251be7a7ae027ced357b35ad6d98dce94 | 0x3b3a59060c869d91366d299bd9b52cfdaa091440 | 0x5dc7f51000787b5e32baf2cfac5a3a73417e4e872ce9b6dc1c24799042ec70f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-ros-kra-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-zen-ore-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-mta-din-2025-10-02 |... | yes | 0.2 | uel-rom-lil-2025-10-02 | Will Lille win on 2025-10-02? | 77,208,306 | 77,208,306 |
95609dd0f6f2aa1828fa28079404579dcedd6f6a | 0x3b3a59060c869d91366d299bd9b52cfdaa091440 | 0x74ab26420f9bc44fc7a39f238a18a22ae3ba08ea4810bfe53af309d91e1870ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-ros-kra-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-zen-ore-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-mta-din-2025-10-02 |... | yes | 0.2 | uel-fen-nic-2025-10-02 | Will Fenerbahce win on 2025-10-02? | 77,208,306 | 77,208,306 |
2f9fc4241a8e4732cf5aa54ae961efd90cb33d2b | 0x3b3a59060c869d91366d299bd9b52cfdaa091440 | 0x84b1d06cbd0b1da8682b51add8720aea4e1e5dd08d6a2c38b9667ae10af343e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-ros-kra-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-zen-ore-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-mta-din-2025-10-02 |... | yes | 0.2 | uel-plz-mal-2025-10-02 | Will Plzen win on 2025-10-02? | 77,208,306 | 77,208,306 |
02f863186e755fddcca48f11375c83f57d790e87 | 0x3b3a59060c869d91366d299bd9b52cfdaa091440 | 0x8564b89abea8dd03a1b41e33100e942d811bbb5f1d85873ffe9e80d59666f70a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-ros-kra-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-09-27? | Event: rus-zen-ore-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-mta-din-2025-10-02 |... | yes | 1 | uel-por-crv-2025-10-02 | Will FC Porto win on 2025-10-02? | 77,208,306 | 77,208,306 |
01fdc34cec2a0ccc0e1195665ec3aa5a1f93ec80 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0xafc3276cf2ab35b7deb28433786e7fb4eee1ba4c586c5505f8e33b9186c0703a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?
Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | 79,512,334 | 79,518,199 |
d780e597be67000ace8006cd28344d781001cd5c | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0x6159be269f88be1f567a85a7087dacbb77c40532e29682c5b8f1304837e7b705 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25?
Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output st... | no | 1 | ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | 79,512,481 | 79,512,481 |
cab74271a358e0b9cf679143b9102b78d023ade9 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0xd02ee6284701277aba9de3233255185875355b0c834f462fb37393a2428d1458 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025... | no | 1 | ucl-bog-juv-2025-11-25 | Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | 79,512,481 | 79,512,481 |
10b9c89139fa6be5f651e772da4439e54aa889b4 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0x2b88f04d52ac4de93b80543659a4d5c510a9f5b2b615b55345715127151e7506 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | hawks | 0 | nba-atl-was-2025-11-25 | Hawks vs. Wizards | 79,512,539 | 79,512,539 |
4b16a35f5d2ff553df6bbff6f99963fcb2281318 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0x782ba52051e9f68296d28be460bfe6c96209139000e7a08d97940b5b1b4fe788 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | george washington revolutionaries | 0 | cbb-geows-murst-2025-11-25 | George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Murray State Racers | 79,512,539 | 79,512,539 |
0535c2d91620df5f93403cc6231da084e609a945 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0xf1644c299ba1f6a869808fdc976e34b944ae61c82fc4d7332fd418fb2025042b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | florida gulf coast eagles | 0 | cbb-rice-flgc-2025-11-25 | Rice Owls vs. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles | 79,512,539 | 79,512,539 |
96c3c448ddf56e954c9b86a9a18841f806072070 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0x6d728e0aa1f9cbee4c5ff8fede634187e2ae02c7aedf0f4aa8f6dd4d50bb5af6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | iowa hawkeyes | 0 | cbb-miss-iowa-2025-11-25 | Ole Miss Rebels vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | 79,512,539 | 79,517,428 |
f8dc091eb7d5e3fafb317ab202d8afd9efbdb7da | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0xd50ceea48bf35887b52e07ac4a3aacd237d62e23bfea8572e2446cf4f33100a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | 76ers | 0 | nba-orl-phi-2025-11-25 | Magic vs. 76ers | 79,512,539 | 79,517,901 |
e9db86f91f512895dbba73566a55b659fc8a54ee | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0x756974553a18f4f06682cb5aae2ad993539abbc0032899d15e82d712d475bf69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | mcneese state cowboys | 0 | cbb-mcnst-mtnst-2025-11-25 | McNeese State Cowboys vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 79,512,539 | 79,517,979 |
9c747b4a89481176399251ce5ccf14ab7c2b1ab9 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0x9418ca0b0f1e2a097095a048f2cbdfbe4a51677fd8662ecd64b83143335054d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | cal poly mustangs | 0 | cbb-calpol-semst-2025-11-25 | Cal Poly Mustangs vs. Southeast Missouri State Redhawks | 79,512,539 | 79,531,723 |
237c4b0b2c847966173d8ffc8d82ae0ba1746b14 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0xc7df2ce3b5054d1758146fdcb5aa076e47776536f359c86bef96bc09e414b742 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | yes | 0.935737 | ucl-paf-asm1-2025-11-26 | Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-11-26? | 79,540,586 | 79,551,626 |
572d2970ed5a5023864ae8b33eee2e47dc31e4c8 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0xc20674104ba507dbb4cfca9e68874654595de491cc437de07d91e5771a721ff1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | bucknell bison | 0 | cbb-buck-buf-2025-11-26 | Bucknell Bison vs. Buffalo Bulls | 79,540,979 | 79,551,582 |
042b80bca7e3a2934884eaced65030db08860cd4 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0x17a9229e0b31a3fe9640259eb096b5db7dddb981d5130274b9678490e8f68ffd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | no | 1 | elc-bbr-qpr-2025-11-26 | Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2025-11-26? | 79,551,582 | 79,551,582 |
6bc362aaf1289eca4a3aacb29577423fd1072bf5 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0x881ff9b92b7d9b4506307c1fcb49c9caba79d806fcbeb16a6796d455532380d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | no | 1 | ucl-ars1-bay1-2025-11-26 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26? | 79,551,582 | 79,551,582 |
b248d012d410e8720c30534e482e347dddbcd071 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0xa0f461aa38d62b25178a5328e93a6e06c8e8c22ff0f0fbc72652656c92dc54af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | no | 1 | ucl-fra1-ata1-2025-11-26 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? | 79,551,582 | 79,551,582 |
676feab9b07d0db049b78c38bc392fd61b4f59cf | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0xe7b80bfc298f92f43e51fa84a9ab8ae72cab43975ad5ab0738a8ca9f0896f5a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | no | 1 | ucl-spo1-bru-2025-11-26 | Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-11-26? | 79,551,582 | 79,551,582 |
33fa9e8238009547f54101c6086edeabe8881199 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0xb2e199347669c2892bd8f01fe7330a04073878261dd949e7b5fb3d56f00d0030 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | yes | 0.638586 | elc-mil-swe-2025-11-26 | Will Millwall FC win on 2025-11-26? | 79,551,582 | 79,551,626 |
a07b7aa4bd62aa0cc22fce6bf0e04ee69da65816 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0x10ec4512365de18eeeb77f3890f90b7690bf1c3a89aed1cfe0d1878a01ab7aed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | no | 1 | elc-wre-bri-2025-11-26 | Will Wrexham AFC win on 2025-11-26? | 79,551,626 | 79,551,626 |
e1293d1f9a0148b9d382d281d62ed69279b78b13 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0xc71ec6617d1781dc31c9882952d8a5661cb615cd57115631eaac5bffa061fabb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | no | 1 | ucl-oly1-rma1-2025-11-26 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26? | 79,551,626 | 79,551,626 |
7a4dca1fc58a1522d71affbf039dbe5512dc9801 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0x1671517bd3d1671146fdc1951e1fcd7caec1cd4dfaec52f319b6bb16d5712a5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | heat | 0.000033 | nba-mil-mia-2025-11-26 | Bucks vs. Heat | 79,554,070 | 79,554,070 |
9c3c1729adbb334d69698de36bd0209baf165c92 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0x3974891f820167a75760d5704fd238ddf9d9f3c85a2ec940284a3fe61017daa4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | grizzlies | 0.000004 | nba-mem-nop-2025-11-26 | Grizzlies vs. Pelicans | 79,554,070 | 79,554,070 |
7524e7fd3c039bcb589d19077ced5f6e8eb08cd8 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0xdee7a8155bb65d198be99de9668a3c7cdeb389d82093721d707e00e64defd660 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | raptors | 0.000008 | nba-ind-tor-2025-11-26 | Pacers vs. Raptors | 79,554,070 | 79,554,070 |
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