sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7720efbfba93988c7c1e7029072648a4e6fe0f73 | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x6c92932d3bf0bd3237b0ecba372c5f324b1f9019ad8224ae9d66e1c71434ec4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,575,761 | 66,575,761 |
0fc9bafe0fe50e0b0c8056fc654852db2064b385 | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0xaa69f9c948b8a162eb305285bf31a581868c23a289573889b27361726c213b64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Will another movie gross most in 2024? | 66,575,761 | 66,575,761 |
2ebe9d4adbe6b3c5561def7331e76a24589d1d25 | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0xc7c4951dfcf274144e5aaa40c4022f55b2d62e926c0cbcc6b9b5884a85e04762 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,575,761 | 66,575,761 |
202feca93fa081de4fa89767b599a0519f1e64ce | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x5c495b5c6da108789889a4c708a3fd26d9b7a884ec5411bd7a450cce44f2127c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | den-of-thieves-2-pantera-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross $16-19m? | 66,743,279 | 66,743,279 |
ede7d25b5cfebba6361894c12df9efbec01df669 | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0xdeef81ea24ad366927c48caeecf0c2b7449af00086edd9dcf47f900c0cc5d635 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | den-of-thieves-2-pantera-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross less than $16m? | 66,743,279 | 66,743,279 |
73beba964b19ec43a4251fec9e6ee7cfe8e7e0f6 | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0xd6cc33956e387fb8e89c5105aadf24438bf478bcfc103361187535f2c98521fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NOT be listed fir... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-10-17 | Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Jan 10-17? | 66,858,597 | 66,858,597 |
3800ea42a0a6f0219b905ad78da60b71911806c6 | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x2a377ce93dc6d97ac1ef28f904090a5c7b3644aa359f92a29f7c2b34bb97dbdc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coinbase announce Goatseus Maximus as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $NOT be listed first on Robinhood? | Event: next-coin-on-robinhood | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $POPCAT be listed first o... | yes | 1 | wolf-man-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Wolf Man' opening weekend gross between $16-20m? | 67,027,532 | 67,027,532 |
e88f23cee3a9ddddcbc405882231ae31349a381f | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x4480460531feebcaacb3105e9186e19c522d8335bb79100aa4a9b8dfca751bd2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $NOT be listed first on Robinhood? | Event: next-coin-on-robinhood | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $POPCAT be listed first on Robinhood? | Event: next-coin-on-robinhood | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Coinbase announce Popcat as next listing? | Event: ... | no | 1 | who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Will Christopher Macchio perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | 67,027,532 | 67,027,532 |
359ca7b35ce2765d7c7b72249367bd3858d7fecd | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x56b3e04b1f4408ca8bcde27ec5b1271e3fe7d0f957296e1fa0df6970846bff9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $POPCAT be listed first on Robinhood? | Event: next-coin-on-robinhood | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce Popcat as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $PNUT be listed first on Robinho... | yes | 1 | who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Will Lee Greenwood perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | 67,027,532 | 67,027,532 |
6de474f1f96623f1b81264f053cba8644c98a167 | 0x0657e9f8d9cd8cc00e71993bc2744739a8cc8291 | 0x8b3cbcddb055b9b6594b5ffe70e075e6d22f62c2373f51768c6db382761a98d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coinbase announce Popcat as next listing? | Event: next-coinbase-listing-announcement | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $PNUT be listed first on Robinhood? | Event: next-coin-on-robinhood | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on... | yes | 1 | who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Will U.S. Service member(s) perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | 67,027,532 | 67,027,532 |
b358d331822e0703f7e778350fa3469e44993dca | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0x54e552db5bcb9a3330e4c2d6c18569e76b5f4402c661c22be264d60416d8ca99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the Netherlands win?
Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Will the Netherlands win? | 61,685,948 | 61,685,948 |
e41f771fa353495c94ea76cc3c1c4d490935bfa3 | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0x4a3328c5694bd12f861a912c2ac568be91fde0fb9e226d48b5f35595e6684345 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Manchester City beat Brentford?
Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JS... | no | 1 | epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | 61,850,862 | 61,850,862 |
9615fe1b2889f9d76ccc5f5daf188878eaf92f51 | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0x29bdf54d14e9ec1b2777ef02b4ff0180edf9a27b303a2099adf5f47890a45111 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaija... | yes | 1 | azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 61,888,015 | 61,888,015 |
972f2b2f0154d5b200ee4bfcc01464404904cd5d | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0x78c311c856fc22431bae03b2b3d3fa74f7d0c9f46552619367c92208a7797b52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?... | no | 1 | joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $105m opening weekend? | 62,774,921 | 62,774,921 |
52bba36e6a8b693e64459e1ba88efb79abd3e359 | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0x6ba12e8c901c44939580a3597d4343f2f9d243be7e3aca66fa44619ba6fbb91e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-bri-2024-11-02 | Will Brighton win on 2024-11-02? | 63,823,695 | 63,823,695 |
1cbb1e393b1633466a7ebcf24905699bcbb55cdb | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0xfd8167b6e1bd8189de282d81341af6028cdf6b51f3f04fa1a6bd62b38fd6b74f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-tot-2024-12-05 | Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-05? | 65,140,451 | 65,140,451 |
76b825dda546c47d46680ff271ce76ff2c929e57 | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0x0e6f8d90b5b8628970858cee01ce0801ef5932ee167ea7aa6b90bbb30feede96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?... | no | 1 | epl-ars-cry-2025-04-23 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-23? | 70,695,138 | 70,695,138 |
b94bba3cba2a735cbf29a3345a4fc10a64f21a2a | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0xdb717df2764cd2bc652f6ec1ad6283cf2b191787481728ac2fd546d8b1d8b921 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?... | no | 1 | ucl-ars-psg-2025-04-29 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-29? | 70,933,501 | 70,933,501 |
185e5bd4d42cf133b9d4f2d273770f41a5ee5c1a | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0x07339ac7f14ec4152b1e37800058e56b7099ea3313021e3712c89dce8c436621 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-august-13-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4100 on August 13 at 5PM ET? | 75,175,550 | 75,175,550 |
0894e11d28a78aa722e34c59dbac39f577a4df93 | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0x6b5fda3fd9ca442d057f059fba62828a2e1b5c2a39e59e7d6d8c849ef2ca86ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?... | no | 1 | ucl-gil-new-2025-10-01 | Will Union St. Gilloise win on 2025-10-01? | 77,149,448 | 77,149,448 |
07bbde3fd0c37477729509935d469f7945a37200 | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0xab22e79ac5fc0cc2f6ea63d6fca0a038fcf6312c15a71345c022d35e8ccb2960 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?... | yes | 1 | caf-tun-nam-2025-10-13 | Will Tunisia win on 2025-10-13? | 77,651,979 | 77,651,979 |
40fb397f0e5cb0da8cdf17da86d9fa31ebc6df19 | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0x971b6376b65b1d76ddd60143143b5d68b129de1f91033a2d074c6ef2e2158ae4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | 78,820,292 | 78,820,292 |
f645b0d4a8b415b99b340133b83f247c7c26a9d3 | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0xe73edadf8c145ebf8414e9a92b55040345a77aade693bf8c800201c5fa88bc3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-liv-2025-11-09 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? | 78,820,292 | 78,820,292 |
7af3d22369cc29a3af94b81ff8d8510cf398f221 | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0xdc149ddf17e7adc2c2bcdd9caa4235ed3cbc4730f3ae10d2e26c3089b063a6eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?... | yes | 1 | lal-ray-rea-2025-11-09 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? | 78,820,369 | 78,820,369 |
f304bb71d44b2374748ddebdb1096744597ec9ea | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0x6dca4075128f6e5b112d1f488e55ceb917a30e04dec55be08ae188be02bed339 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?... | no | 1 | epl-liv-not-2025-11-22 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? | 79,389,795 | 79,389,795 |
eeac34414335d1dbca54e83fb2bfe715bbaf283f | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0xed8da673df65db4f370568f91e9c74642d87ae1d53123396a02111b9b0648ff2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?... | no | 1 | epl-bri-bre-2025-11-22 | Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? | 79,389,818 | 79,389,818 |
4a1aaa59da40130a484653d08ff05b0e682f9b0f | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0x8a257e4449bf9a7e7d6859d0b37084f9dd6ca13994149c5c770f0fcbb5fbe758 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?... | yes | 1 | bun-lei-wer-2025-11-23 | Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-11-23? | 79,428,614 | 79,428,614 |
96756262c13b25ab796e627187be4219696530b9 | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0x6159be269f88be1f567a85a7087dacbb77c40532e29682c5b8f1304837e7b705 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?... | yes | 1 | ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | 79,509,990 | 79,509,990 |
7726b5f9148844d433a2bb198b7846c4e1b00d7c | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0xf0b9d32c86599df667e29e71683636f6a03936af34aef8233af005f759e490a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?... | yes | 1 | ucl-olm1-new-2025-11-25 | Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-25? | 79,509,990 | 79,509,990 |
f30c3a75d1dd10486ed0907211ea706638521d87 | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0x3819d64f6c093548658efb4900184a72eac7485c4a822f980ca4f36a5a705ffb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?... | yes | 1 | ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-25? | 79,510,032 | 79,510,032 |
5701d984901633f12608efe22853ef52c915df9f | 0x066ed14c15ae9ce2c80db31f9d8adb5ec424137c | 0x4a50c5a4f229f4a8052e0ca4eed82ed8cbdc34f04821e389d39cd7767bfcd13c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Brentford? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?... | yes | 1 | ucl-slp1-ath1-2025-11-25 | Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2025-11-25? | 79,510,032 | 79,510,032 |
12ba2ad6894d672bf9f8e328e309d5d859cee30e | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xf956e916e9e29e8140b7bb5dc9c0a0eba6f85ac8da1e46ab7370772f62a0332c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Usyk beat Fury?
Event: usyk-vs-fury-2
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | usyk-vs-fury-2 | Will Usyk beat Fury? | 65,787,749 | 65,787,749 |
87a12528bdc3b88d83555a33587129cf7838385e | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xa007f6c22fa1cf1c54ccb0a485e4b168dc7df63a7ecbab195ac0763712f37adc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22?
Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationa... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | 66,936,109 | 66,936,109 |
d56e0193c0d8adfe3795ec201888f89dd0cfd6c5 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x8566865c2f3a559a5b58e045289cd6437ad1d5437fee535b26d18d3b6b950afc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?
Event: how-many-executiv... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | 66,965,601 | 66,965,601 |
986fcb389c3201e628e6bb8a8949badb4c63d0bc | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x2a61d8c119b55a6e02fb0882bd4caf5add77f44db7fa2db1c0caeede45eefef5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his-first-week | Will Donald Trump issue less than 25 executive orders in his first week? | 67,017,037 | 67,017,037 |
33bf32fe1213b0e945a26439f454649347dd244c | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x34576cd266c5e48682933a05f40d33d6e620a6d071cdc22070061e214e62e333 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-22 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 17-18°F on January 22? | 67,022,752 | 67,022,752 |
aea7d75df54a14fa76821b8f857f497b74d2b771 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x4e3b8405c1b60772588c14e87479bfc2d1ed20fb0f81c5e3abcae3924706a7ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-22 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 16°F or below on January 22? | 67,022,752 | 67,022,752 |
5358b8c2dc0fc686b2dc50e36d1abd2ce8697bc2 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xb045e1920d0dcb0f4c0004d935d44960324d965943eef38a8fa40c58664645d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 38-39°F on January 22? | 67,022,752 | 67,022,752 |
ad74cebf3cccbb01bf44e5945ad0b8b704cf8bba | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x1b9fad812fea5f5788a86299b0d0e9705b54787f29312e0844773f29c815066e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-22 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 27°F or higher on January 22? | 67,053,054 | 67,053,054 |
a0d45cc20ccda180ae21f62e8fe9f0944e9e36bc | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x24328a852707b6c6acdfc33d830eabd00728a5def442e203b841904452acf8f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-22 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 23-24°F on January 22? | 67,053,054 | 67,053,054 |
fad8529f59077cd5767815dc3d171ba2e0f9cbcc | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x38e1b5e2438f1bb06cad3b1d6db45125aa052e3f9c7088d72d1a24a57641a029 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on January 22? | 67,053,054 | 67,053,054 |
3835a0eb641162302e53fe2cb091545c04f1c745 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x3f9a95011aa5def6192754e9bbe764fc631bffcb2de3d67652e22417eb142662 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-22 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 19-20°F on January 22? | 67,053,054 | 67,053,054 |
b348ea90f43cc65bae1d945f5fb4286c2946d9d0 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x92be7ddfe1468f4f8e7f3538f359549aaf5f19568b129c9a27831e0de384bd11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be 46°F or higher on January 22? | 67,053,054 | 67,053,054 |
f8d0b341721710d46d24f5a25d5307ba66049f67 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xbc0513420833e0c04fb8aabf3a71fe52ea38e0a384d72ae232784d00d0214cf0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on January 22? | 67,053,054 | 67,053,054 |
0af4064d113d5afffaa2a0567b04c5b8ded8a3cf | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xec02cfded659716a811da65e1ecd2f0019570c8778b1513bf877ea6ea3b709a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-22 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 25-26°F on January 22? | 67,053,054 | 67,053,054 |
30d8a3fd29db5756c9b6ade1dbd6452af3c2b5b2 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x8355f454f28e23171a2b27d491cadc12195633816067cf36399db9ca0d2680e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his-first-week | Will Donald Trump issue 25-49 executive orders in his first week? | 67,328,799 | 67,328,799 |
a83a8739c8e07af448e1f485141ded2e0a46c542 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x0d18a0004df16e111aa2cbcd00014abd86a665fcfa18cc4fdf6094e5e113741b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Will $Trump FDV be $5-10b on Feb 1? | 67,421,746 | 67,421,746 |
7b941be6644d2f9f676fd3e834db76f0373f5747 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x237f63a66cec4503cf486275b247d56175d161fb3564511b185dbe1d92077e5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | 67,421,746 | 67,421,746 |
bce2693904e39c4868b40f3c7a604228007fc61d | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x28865f8afeecb1949dfd35c29efba19d8c65bc15cc90a73507bf3329b309f78c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Will $Trump FDV be $30-35b on Feb 1? | 67,421,746 | 67,421,746 |
a3ef7a82735be61e6c7441743bc2dc0afefbfd77 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xd769f4473231d03250d2070962c695261ae193a38099ba99c47c8074bd6bd545 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Will $Trump FDV be $25-30b on Feb 1? | 67,421,746 | 67,421,746 |
244809a8f489276eb7970e6bd36a582aa9d636a0 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xe5e0894f9a4216ca8eef99be49dc2821d032d298548b0f6abbd12cc7d516b7b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Will $Trump FDV be $20-25b on Feb 1? | 67,421,746 | 67,421,746 |
22215a2ba98e3c03cde844f8b8e7f03097c9a438 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xff79080a14ff724bde585800ac148891638003a68a6b8612ccbe46f254b1169d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Will $Trump FDV be $10-15b on Feb 1? | 67,421,746 | 67,421,746 |
365513e08e68f823b67dac15b4e46edc982179bd | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xbcec35df879043d808cf92cac54f859297f0c6c227bc67c4fc69e79b632f76e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | 68,211,304 | 68,211,304 |
3f9fbac4054277f004f62d77a97ce2151a946afb | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xd0009520c0341163e2c410fb9d08380485fdb137b4101031a18ed2e8b2755f33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | no | 1 | libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $500m and $1b on Feb 21? | 68,211,304 | 68,211,304 |
b00e151a1953cf73bc3fb7f997eb4f7a8d9e0ba8 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x6bb6fb7adcbf7cf947e45427b8a5361cce4d4a50dcfbd1fe3fdbf02bc2bbfca2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | next-coin-on-coinbase | Will another coin be the next coin listed on Coinbase? | 68,934,044 | 68,934,044 |
46122e0c0b2dc01ba56819a5fe55550e6f8ba0ae | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x12b44a54dc2b78f15183148a359446336f3502bae1366273a22d3b9f7657ca9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Will egg prices be less than $4.50 in February? | 68,966,574 | 68,966,574 |
10b304e84b99e5d9c67a2eeaeaa88b1f155052f1 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xbb8040c5fcd70936686f1f19369c1b06a2c2cdf4d5b4958d246168b355438225 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Will egg prices be between $4.75 and $5.00 in February? | 68,966,574 | 68,966,574 |
e160a16cbae96d97d5b0cd0adea92257066823de | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xccf4f0f408609486b3611a5089769c8bc6aedb25f65e13a030f8fe8598791d81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in February? | 68,966,574 | 68,966,574 |
628845faaa0b23d16b40e60102230d20237ba9c9 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xd688ccfb5b542dba04c9cda0997357ea77444316bc5753c0e0f4b170749cf9fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 0.99991 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video | Will MrBeast's next video get between 30m and 40m views? | 69,414,282 | 69,414,282 |
53167960fc80c9cffdf8456212834605590ca463 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x75e55a92fc1f68265a6739c8d51c6e12dcbaf3295831620f71df30a29671ea83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 20-30% on the EU by June 30? | 69,840,486 | 69,840,486 |
febb9b731cef86656f1bf4aa9e0dafbe9af327b4 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x1ca40b70cbb8409d08edc42640ae76d8c438f7a1a6d007b940839b1a18b3d9de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 40% or more on the EU by June 30? | 69,850,603 | 69,850,603 |
cdaad65f3e9cc8f8d70f979f05038aa3397b1a85 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x41191dfe588a3609eb7b390e619766b40c5bc20a6cf2970b8cba6634c18eef8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-wi... | yes | 1 | how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 10-20% on the EU by June 30? | 69,850,603 | 69,850,603 |
ba82134337813a58c12a6cb0e55163c72807f11d | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xf5486eea102bce851fb6337d49a9358b0c9b3b8af27a03b4ee4f6f0d8d2f2eaf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump issu... | yes | 1 | a-minecraft-movie-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 30 and 40? | 70,017,767 | 70,017,767 |
24239137fbbc2f7b4c7de90d30efdf6c4ae7d768 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x5fcc1e4fc9d1db44c486d5f4db98f7bb096003e3297ecc63987bfb128c9b51b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue less than 25 executive orders in his first week? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his... | no | 1 | which-country-will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-first | Will Trump lower tariffs on Israel next? | 70,142,791 | 70,142,791 |
3f69dd90f984a6aebe0db80ea8fc173539ff38f8 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x1320293c9c9b51c0936617ca9a30a6a7441b6f6a307b2ba404f5caf44ae1ad4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump issue less than 25 executive orders in his first week? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his-first-week | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 17-18°F on January 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-... | yes | 1 | 10-year-treasury-yield-on-friday | Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.3% and 4.4% on April 11? | 70,200,952 | 70,200,952 |
b443d2cd0078ef9cd189ed16a091b3e63707ba28 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x3d36b3d39f0d0eecc9b7a2b4cf2098e6cac260436b6d1eb24f6cbf75bafc20ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 17-18°F on January 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 16°F or below on January 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-22 | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | 10-year-treasury-yield-on-friday | Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.5% and 4.6% on April 11? | 70,200,952 | 70,200,952 |
0b70ff195431084f2814e1a07b6ac2144e0f23aa | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xb0c08542f6c7b72989e40bd690760657efd4958e0045f64881db5dfbf03eb9d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 16°F or below on January 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 38-39°F on January 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-22 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | 10-year-treasury-yield-on-friday | Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.6% and 4.7% on April 11? | 70,200,952 | 70,200,952 |
78a447eafbbfdb4f045a70ee1e7dbe387878b312 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x4aff54e8ef5cce28a6f56e8021fbfe9a2f712c4b65d6fb558c132ae16a19d232 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 38-39°F on January 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 27°F or higher on January 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-22 | Choice: y... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-3-24 | Will MrBeast's next video after March 23 get less than 20m views? | 70,263,745 | 70,263,745 |
135f33bebb6669af2f403294f95cd7634381fc25 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xc8c48fb90cd19beefecfe275d14ec74eef95b27a66de4e91d5684102c93aa9d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 27°F or higher on January 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 23-24°F on January 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-22 | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-3-24 | Will MrBeast's next video after March 23 get between 30m and 40m views? | 70,267,064 | 70,267,064 |
a4e0aa35ed619f2e48b963415024eb320b033aa8 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x64cc666a27dcebe388b1bc28a999abb9b2d6b30681bade92a861e0fc1ee09dc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 23-24°F on January 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on January 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-22 | Choice: ... | no | 1 | the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 55 and 60? | 70,335,726 | 70,335,726 |
090a55c004a5b8f1ba7780693d90fea5a631f1e2 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x650fd2ce07380b9fa11092f7b4c21c6e337312bd69be02c7b0cb1c55893751a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on January 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 19-20°F on January 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-22 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60 and 65? | 70,335,726 | 70,335,726 |
8b125009de005e0e28dbbc5de8bd4175d3547a23 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xb9af317bd4d1ba24fb3672b72ae987144ff69cdef61a0822c74c2e371d7f4f3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 19-20°F on January 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 46°F or higher on January 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-22 | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be more than 65? | 70,335,726 | 70,335,726 |
7e43927b3f0aab3c2fddc5542094424e7020a53d | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x816c636270a24f0d8a0a812481e90a97fc792f4240112f70243d6bcb60d94bbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 46°F or higher on January 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on January 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-22 | Cho... | no | 1 | f1-saudi-arabian-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points | Will Mercedes have the highest Constructor score at the Saudi Arabian GP? | 70,568,258 | 70,568,258 |
887100c6990b498c6f89c8686b532548bae1c1a8 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x8dd5dd84edb27801d5971ba5d8960e0822e78e3dc02d15e91094453d81c29f50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on January 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 25-26°F on January 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-22 | Choice: ... | no | 1 | saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | 70,568,258 | 70,568,258 |
2523efd078ae8156b0afae49b08c0062f61e8cb2 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xad5e4df701578a3464ecf74e1982b23596c39396814019192b883a5eae390837 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 25-26°F on January 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue 25-49 executive orders in his first week? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his-first-w... | no | 1 | f1-saudi-arabian-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-second-most-points | Will Mercedes have the second-highest Constructor score at the Saudi Arabian GP? | 70,568,258 | 70,568,258 |
7c511267afbe67d6b69733ff8af440a5a1d21be0 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xf7b713eaff11d3afe350fe77dba9484d80b91acf45676731ecb642a725f6104b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump issue 25-49 executive orders in his first week? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his-first-week | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $5-10b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | f1-saudi-arabian-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points | Will Ferrari have the highest Constructor score at the Saudi Arabian GP? | 70,568,258 | 70,568,258 |
243b1677bdb1ce5f0a282dd683192b28a85a08d4 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xcc181ae268fc1b6751eb9e60f18a7055e1585b5c0d6601157fdd2a966db0adc5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $5-10b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $30-35b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-febru... | yes | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-april-25 | Will Trump's approval rating be less than 44.0% on April 25? | 70,809,403 | 70,809,403 |
bbfcd13ce8a4da940263f70396f719612f631886 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x04538a278827f68be7cf45fcc1cd9c16b2eb2c3b4aef4fdd64fa765ee52d8316 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $30-35b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $25-30b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-febr... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-04162025 | Will MrBeast's next video get 40m+ views on day 1? | 70,849,475 | 70,849,475 |
9b8c449a2a22dcc24a5f002da9a75be9f6510f68 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xb6c1d31f4f6ffb67a8dd963f5fbec7acb40e66954daf1e146705265ae899f4f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $30-35b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $25-30b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $20-25b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-febr... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-04162025 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 20-25m views on day 1? | 70,849,475 | 70,849,475 |
09c51b2f81882da451955f28cd67fced2adc1cf0 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xc1ff7c390cbeac4ae4be61b81314be6f09c759f6b923430d6d1964c18e6c565c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $25-30b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $20-25b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $10-15b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-febr... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-04162025 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 30-35m views on day 1? | 70,849,475 | 70,849,475 |
7457849875c1ebb0fae02efbf75281c88dc7598a | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x7ded24e43b37ca583dc01a901c6e511fb22bc1df478c004f67928e0f70b296ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $20-25b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $10-15b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 2... | yes | 1 | us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-april-30 | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on April 30? | 70,954,348 | 70,954,348 |
e581616d63463782bcdd9b6819e92a1e8b1bfbcf | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x87822b3d4ccba1835d698354b01c050b55f20c5f34b14908bff4ea5a6d58af4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $10-15b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the market cap of $L... | yes | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-canada | Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | 70,954,348 | 70,954,348 |
74aebc84719c02bceb0bf18928885db924deb0cf | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x198e011c6ff0b381fd691511ffe5ab3e5754dc13ec353a9f3f9d73179b2740cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $500m and $1b on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | who-will-leave-trump-administration-first | Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration first? | 71,015,102 | 71,015,102 |
657e1e362e6bef1440a062b452f417d500021c66 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x1d2443bae1f915dfd19c17a805c0214a24d0a7fe43e89f1e9f3593eb63b3eb83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $500m and $1b on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another coin be the next coin listed on Coinbase? | Event: next-coin-on-coinbase | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | epl-che-liv-2025-05-04 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-04? | 71,133,914 | 71,133,914 |
da0e7ca532f6fb15733567ce6bda2c6fa97f6247 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x485d4cf622a381fd12c9701f751ae689bf4d2c55967021b044b94611c60d7fe2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another coin be the next coin listed on Coinbase? | Event: next-coin-on-coinbase | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be less than $4.50 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg prices be between $... | no | 1 | epl-che-liv-2025-05-04 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-04? | 71,133,914 | 71,133,914 |
cc6be46d8289d946164cee37be12aaf40a3a3944 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x4fc8988a7c612733950a6a7815514a7eee2945eab78df06b0bdf4b27233df1c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will egg prices be less than $4.50 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.75 and $5.00 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg prices b... | yes | 1 | miami-grand-prix-winner | Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix? | 71,133,914 | 71,133,914 |
f8e67de6c8e9c776d1c045baad2d5e7531ceac66 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xbf9bb81bfbec27138ab132df81beed480d354c2025e223bff7ec39242a74d5d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.75 and $5.00 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBe... | yes | 1 | f1-miami-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-2nd-most-points | Will Mercedes have the 2nd highest Constructor score at the 2025 Miami Grand Prix? | 71,133,914 | 71,133,914 |
16d49a8883a1593cea8b129f5abbf7e264dca609 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x37e6c1227c1ee562cbd906099dadbd658ddca8cdb9730736857b4d82701c6393 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 30m and 40m views? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999102045220218
3. Ques... | no | 1 | next-chancellor-of-germany | Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | 71,197,574 | 71,197,574 |
3c2d85775a09e4204e7e2988d79ae2916801b581 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x9ebcc8ac8f2eefaaec5572555b186e5c6f4a2c22a1a6499d32d57775b0d9effd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 30m and 40m views? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999102045220218
2. Question: Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 20-30% on the EU by June 30? | Event: how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 60m and 70m views in first 24 hours? | 71,246,738 | 71,246,738 |
e136e20c18e9c1983ff65e733ca21f2457f8f715 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xffffb2874475ae9c1e3a0e3c3c4b4e329eb3105427aa484f357bf41c5fd77c4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 20-30% on the EU by June 30? | Event: how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 40% or more on the EU by June 30? | Event: how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-may-2025 | No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? | 71,246,738 | 71,246,738 |
6483298cc5ee25823ce59675dc9c1339af99817b | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x31ffd9aab0ebb5be9ec63c29f42bbe1d6c7a43c246612ce3e42febc8658e242a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 40% or more on the EU by June 30? | Event: how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 10-20% on the EU by June 30? | Event: how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | 71,280,088 | 71,280,088 |
76dcbe97d8ddf7cf0020552977e1e4cc44be88c7 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xe30f91d3cf3c83cad45cc102b31568d190dc8606ceb5f986d79223caa47848d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 10-20% on the EU by June 30? | Event: how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 30 and 40? | Event: a-minecraft-movie-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Con... | yes | 1 | days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Will the next pop be elected in 7 or more days? | 71,280,088 | 71,280,088 |
ef8f8f387a02f7883669bbc99a290500f3ca441e | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x7c0cea4d74ffb2c8451f8834fc9f93e72479eab3a4a98b75127940f5f60f1622 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 30 and 40? | Event: a-minecraft-movie-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump lower tariffs on Israel next? | Event: which-country-will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-first | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | 71,298,919 | 71,298,919 |
bce8339542fe4388f94916e22e177057b51f954f | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x16674f35a243f05bbb228f84c513885315788ed4ab248ed971b3ac7353d077b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lower tariffs on Israel next? | Event: which-country-will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-first | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.3% and 4.4% on April 11? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-on-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? | 71,666,724 | 71,666,724 |
484bdb36feba6b0e9badd50bd956cd570074aca0 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xb566e7a0d39f7566907641776dc8c227df83fb477090688f21b7efcfd55da46b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.3% and 4.4% on April 11? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-on-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.5% and 4.6% on April 11? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-on-friday | Choice: yes | Confiden... | yes | 1 | eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Will Ukraine be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | 71,666,724 | 71,666,724 |
26c6204dfd38fa8f43fa4e25599a4789fd2bb293 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xb1a42218492f54115d709abc909d34ab472255b7cb9293e42f6dbdf17529f3d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.5% and 4.6% on April 11? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-on-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.6% and 4.7% on April 11? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-on-friday | Choice: yes | Confiden... | yes | 1 | europa-league-winner-24-25 | Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League? | 71,815,801 | 71,815,801 |
d9a1725ea4f5fab98c4e9921833ef6be5d4d1e17 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x80fd8ef4f1bd454eb6cb3ab1865cbae80774183d6401f0291488526d8ab065b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.6% and 4.7% on April 11? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-on-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video after March 23 get less than 20m views? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-3-24 | Choice: no | C... | no | 0.999922 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Will MrBeast's next video get 45m or more views on day 1? | 71,964,676 | 71,964,676 |
f743655b22fd8580659b32797d30fc0056b08dc8 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xac355d65ca89a0f1534fbafd1b775c0eab59d3cea7f36cc13b5bf2696982de99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video after March 23 get less than 20m views? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-3-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video after March 23 get between 30m and 40m views? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-3-24 | C... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 30-35m views on day 1? | 71,964,676 | 71,964,676 |
28fceca4183238c94a3c915cb33f4898ce260766 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xf65c98f77bd31ecc8f0ef30bafc83d5fa9be0175fbe45b21cab0e4c3e675539f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video after March 23 get between 30m and 40m views? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-3-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 55 and 60? | Event: the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-may-31 | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 50% on May 31? | 72,207,522 | 72,207,522 |
69bbdc7ef10e86e085c12276494398bb756c04ad | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x77f6d555987460c97863469ad53c82c10a59a859daf1582613196dcd8f1cc8d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 55 and 60? | Event: the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60 and 65? | Event: the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | karate-kid-legends-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Karate Kid: Legends" Rotten Tomatoes score" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 50? | 72,286,967 | 72,286,967 |
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