sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2bc664f4ed5fe59b5fa63aabf143dfdf81c84709 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0x7352d3be5138032da969ccb8618f3fd3abfa9f748fdcef7d3b5e5e67228eecb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | thunder | 0 | nba-min-okc-2025-11-26 | Timberwolves vs. Thunder | 79,554,070 | 79,555,257 |
dbb368dea13a1950db37ee134cde66262a608276 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0x906ddff84f195b2e27e54c7530ebdbf97f642c5acdedbea8504a6fabe443a59b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | golden knights | 0 | nhl-ott-las-2025-11-26 | Senators vs. Golden Knights | 79,555,257 | 79,557,787 |
4a46c56ba6116191678bf1d8cd29e3fc4a638fa7 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0xdd9f6ead72389c686662ed0347c5d423109f48afe1173642b2337299532acb50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | spurs | 0 | nba-sas-por-2025-11-26 | Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | 79,555,257 | 79,558,023 |
d5ede8572f1e184f0a91436e6e64c83264cb71a1 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0x7104c6d0e8518484b91b9f26e552849bdb28c27eceb4a0fc2233727c6e4c4a78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | team tidebound | 0.000239 | dota2-mouz-tt2-2025-11-27 | Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Tidebound (BO1) | 79,576,970 | 79,576,970 |
5626869845ca7343af407032b1a209bdd0e31145 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0xe2d9a5097ebdbf3e92f813e98a22d21e4f0337bf4f3d8dbc36c17081c566be4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | faze | 0.000059 | cs2-fx-faze-2025-11-27 | Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs FaZe (BO3) | 79,578,503 | 79,578,503 |
985f5ca8a1ff21a3f3233791310d94cf46ca13e4 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0x0d49023913de59aaf6e9855859d46ce8000d185f8ff422d921d25a54f0bf63e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | execration | 0 | dota2-heroic-xctn-2025-11-27 | Dota 2: Heroic vs Execration (BO1) | 79,579,965 | 79,593,925 |
f54d1d99ad3973733ad29010a2532bbae2d406d2 | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0xf608a775d7e64c9124456f88b3d98f9eb3b6a3e2c27eac83d54b7d9952ede4b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | og | 0.000034 | dota2-xtreme-og-2025-11-27 | Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs OG (BO1) | 79,583,637 | 79,583,637 |
5c4258aeb038a2df21968b70bcdccd3b7cb8c7fc | 0x3b4b39740350566ac2183eafb2cf487afe2c84c9 | 0xf27bf9edf26189176159c2136a12c6f60487b150aae802ea942c2f344c472aa6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Eve... | no | 0.669896 | uel-pao1-bra-2025-11-27 | Will PAOK vs. SK Brann end in a draw? | 79,583,637 | 79,591,685 |
7078ae50eee756df1f6d1ae2206167abb5309967 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0xb17631413f217b33763f011a61990dd420f760af13bba6cdccd68c52b2b72d4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election?
Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | 64,211,058 | 64,211,058 |
ca89cfec08e764d7e173ae73c757b4ec43521fad | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0xb4961db4b70b4ebeebce6dee9816eda7a18443ae2d25240a70a0614a01f44ed2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?
Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win
Predict the user's choice and confidence fo... | yes | 1 | jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | 64,366,692 | 64,366,692 |
03515b49c2b6c14717764565ec6e826892404248 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0xf24f9951453160fa83fdcaa4ccbb812ef327eaff8fe4fdf485ff14ca71bf16ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Questio... | yes | 1 | ucl-psv-vs-shakhtar-donetsk | Will PSV beat Shakhtar Donetsk? | 64,820,626 | 64,820,626 |
3b14baa17162c366c4353bc71516b3010a467a64 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x6b326acfd92e249ff13165fb716ce81476ebe98497283a783a73b5e426470606 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | 64,968,423 | 64,968,423 |
e5f11cc6765c316d989550c59b3934036adaad1f | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x18038fc4f2469a50c2804556fb923e085715cb3191680f1fd586386b03396be9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | yes | 1 | moana-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of less than 60? | 65,002,808 | 65,002,808 |
acfb3f38121716e5d0da84177f2b921832caf6ef | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0xdb3d97ada2399f53dc90e126509e781e4722c0e2ae10cc9f83eeb6eb7cc5ce41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | yes | 1 | moana-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 60-69? | 65,002,808 | 65,002,808 |
8e897b07dbaf6046b31a54758ad3f1fa6a847a2e | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x9253a28aadb3692ee50e834a6a8201ae357d0c9e0c3c40038d9745a7004775bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | yes | 1 | namibia-presidential-election | Will Panduleni Itula be the next President of Namibia? | 65,070,476 | 65,070,476 |
b1f5f1252300d484aed2446b9470327ed1958571 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0xd226783f2690b9b6799586ac42b88e5b3fbc0a7385eaa2e833d50e1270876482 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | yes | 1 | epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? | 65,094,480 | 65,094,480 |
3f5506042ecd6e579957da7223f41f77765635fd | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x9ce4ce441b98560634b67589135dac0034a45edaacf13455c9add1ddbb6b7dec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | no | 1 | will-assad-remain-president-of-syria-through-2024 | Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? | 65,237,941 | 65,237,941 |
7d62382c8ea508bb5db915052c2a441567d0d5dd | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0xc9b7d8f8ed8b143f9ac2cd0fb583e41c6cb61b06cb585f1a2802adf8926f9f67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | no | 1 | ucl-stade-brestois-vs-psv | Will the match between Stade Brestois and PSV end in a draw? | 65,344,670 | 65,344,670 |
78a140ef30394e2aceef07eb4ec6f7f571b7327b | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0xbc15fb0d41203120dbad5b2db8ca515f2e3072c3dfb045562bbec2086703ae04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | no | 1 | steam-awards-game-of-the-year | Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year in the 2024 Steam Awards? | 66,175,228 | 66,175,228 |
4b47849784bb6e69d9cccf664d471034db6168b5 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x52fcf6a6eacd203d4f30049614273a57fb8a0b5f2f4ef73e646e3085a1835fba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-mun-2025-01-05 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-05? | 66,373,828 | 66,373,828 |
c0d6b71d7040f99e64cec512e3140af45041d7b9 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x31a3a83d9a9429d9f649569d294494107e24df45b68aab08134092b10c29a7d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | no | 1 | ucl-feyenoord-vs-bayern-munich | Will Feyenoord beat Bayern Munich? | 67,038,586 | 67,038,586 |
c61f277a0a44afa338860c81efc98498c881ca67 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x7df9d4b20a02de144aa9fa474a16c43ebec26213a757b5b4605038952a0fed87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | yes | 0.998317 | trump-approval-on-rating-on-january-31 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 48% and 50% on January 31? | 67,384,681 | 67,384,681 |
5c86ca90dd14f63be2ac5488e0c3b1ee9472a797 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0xc32ce44ce8c7464df41c010a0a446dffdf9570d1f5b1790e4262bed043f41bca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | yes | 1 | top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Will xAI have the top AI model on January 31? | 67,384,681 | 67,384,681 |
6ed4003d76ebb00f73a99478dded998edd68d387 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x09013848a1c034e7052d49da259ae608b790ce8e8d67d58a355af3174e830ec5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | no | 1 | grammys-record-of-the-year | Will 'Now and Then' win Record of the Year? | 67,480,743 | 67,480,743 |
6a26fcc9a6c4ffd5c151090a0941fc85469fff62 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0xa39da3f71125d590dd4fb55b2df552be7d129252224cb2c33c7dc69b58c56f66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | no | 1 | grammys-song-of-the-year-2025 | Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of the Year? | 67,481,425 | 67,481,425 |
9e4986aeba6b65682ee3c7193188a089ce3edbcf | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0xa3658667051a8fe1bcf30b0a202d2b1167afcfe61872e65b6aa300d7b6a5e7b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | yes | 1 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-january | Will egg prices be between $4.25-4.50 for January? | 67,848,221 | 67,848,221 |
4bf9889df8393a3b1121923cfe1c77ee3f422b08 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x29bff78b0a3e16866873214308480288271fe784b42a626bd9d3d133edd400f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | no | 0.000717 | mexico-tariffs-on-china-in-effect-before-july | Mexico tariffs on China in effect before July? | 68,365,760 | 68,365,760 |
d6c6adadda00ec9c552f8083a3c40c15120f5cc6 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0xdba03e478029c333d37a2870fb643561af45ca0a128a81f649dcb5e7c160ca3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | yes | 0.000084 | did-the-fbi-destroy-epstein-files | Did the FBI destroy Epstein files? | 68,366,251 | 68,368,439 |
f370ec2a6f5a938fb5d4b5d1b2fcc1935c6a11ad | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x69f53ab59127e46bcc4186531da13ae85ed98c85bbc532ed66be02f7abbee823 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | no | 0 | any-dems-convicted-of-voter-fraud-in-2025 | Any Dems convicted of voter fraud in 2025? | 68,367,023 | 73,149,893 |
c5668ba8422ef925e5368757a269634f4785caea | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x921a3bbe0cb970c1f74384ff92e508c1af4a626a6b9cf80a94f05911644b4dc5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | no | 0 | 100-redactions-in-epstein-files | >100 redactions in Epstein files? | 68,386,499 | 68,466,406 |
b66d7f3fa31af2469dddddadb448d1cb156dc912 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0xa3378c1dfb636e2c8b64f4933f13a2b9321117d350e4a338b39113bc5535a95d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | yes | 0.064631 | georgescu-guilty-in-2025 | Romanian politician Georgescu guilty in 2025? | 68,410,987 | 68,410,987 |
55b1a6ddc98ee1cc3a78f86db8be093947cb1d34 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x5ba54ec4a4df613d440750c46ea2d24b6a493f9b30fb6e1a5b5dcc00c91e5751 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | no | 0 | measles-declared-public-health-emergency-before-april | Measles declared public health emergency before April? | 68,426,608 | 68,426,608 |
1bfc23eab9d97674771385fdcc87bee09a777fed | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x441ee96b2392a7c81f153da622b548883647f525c1a1a53517b9653836f0c782 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28? | 68,490,581 | 68,490,581 |
a196027bc4bd0daddad1401994fea157a3ef6ecd | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x5bcb29016c13ecb705de35015e1e436fd462b975264fb105408760e3d3e41ca1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | yes | 0.000238 | trump-ends-all-military-aid-to-ukraine-before-april | Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April? | 68,493,794 | 68,493,794 |
8cf3fd4c1a2ffed15aecaea8b7f2aae560c9ffcc | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0xfe4c440345b888c44c0a76e1c358f8e58909ae0ac5657766451631eb5c89b7c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | no | 0.566116 | will-trump-make-english-the-national-language | Will Trump make English the national language? | 68,519,751 | 68,519,751 |
bbdb94c1d9561d6dcfcb31e2795557d90a6bd630 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x2c41770d15a90c5b677addb1645ea7453c2a449e879ee1794959e7329877cd7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-documentary-feature-film | Will "Porcelain War" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,591,178 | 68,591,178 |
f9bd1590bcf215a1369f1c3ee868348bc8a8eca8 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x5905575297f2870e18c10041f3b913f0f232fc16d32bca91e22b21dca634a9df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-animated-short-film | Will "Yuck!" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,591,178 | 68,591,178 |
d06f4ae2b319cb276b398ced58d16fc9c10a7796 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x84be5518b2984622edd2f6ddb4ef1adbae60a8fae7ce7434729ebafd6073e228 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-documentary-short-film | Will "The Only Girl in the Orchestra" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,591,178 | 68,591,178 |
8b55bb421f0134eadf9049f8aad7af2a9dea0eed | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x67f5f2ce94e999560348ba7cea12b82e032f503f572084756bd6cad0b1f5bb3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV b... | no | 0 | karen-bass-recall-election-called-before-september | Karen Bass recall election called before September? | 68,772,752 | 68,772,752 |
68c7c614a0e16f6bce1e811a2214ed5a2332a1ad | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x6d17971cfea990442802982408a4fbcf181f550bdad95aed07dd002b00d74dcb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSV beat Shakhtar Donetsk? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-shakhtar-donetsk | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01... | no | 1 | epl-mun-ars-2025-03-09 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-09? | 68,852,999 | 68,852,999 |
dde82d3e55a3c2b5e4c4b24208c5b8c4205e5fd4 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x289c940a68bd70174374b58864dbacbc9db57479587468745a35164a83483480 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSV beat Shakhtar Donetsk? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-shakhtar-donetsk | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of less than 60? | Event: mo... | yes | 1 | ucl-bar-ben-2025-03-11 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-11? | 68,935,664 | 68,935,664 |
24993a85ee0cda453a06185d7bbc205ee20efded | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x417ce239fa8cfa891aab630e273b6d0cb2dda78ab852881a46b23ccc18ea2ad0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of less than 60? | Event: moana-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score o... | no | 0.000236 | trump-speaks-to-carney-by-friday | Trump speaks to Carney by Friday? | 68,952,431 | 68,952,431 |
e13ce1c457cca62db003261154342ab904538171 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x3e49bb0819dd3fb63502fc820bd3aa53ac060e0c8ef9795ed344e01e3eb04570 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of less than 60? | Event: moana-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 60-69? | Event: moana-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Panduleni Itu... | no | 0.000083 | trump-cuts-taxes-in-2025 | Trump cuts taxes in 2025? | 68,966,388 | 68,966,388 |
0ccfb071009fffdc17b5ece6a898aea02ab2d654 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x70755cd933b53e8181425a2664f2a46acfd66f2544a2dd5bd808ccc7d6ebe673 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 60-69? | Event: moana-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Panduleni Itula be the next President of Namibia? | Event: namibia-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win o... | yes | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? | 68,990,525 | 68,990,525 |
9c4d571e85a4f9d4b9553fc272d2d4edef213b7a | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x59bd72d9ab07a7f368a80b7a1a2a01f150f8869085554bad06559f396db7875b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Panduleni Itula be the next President of Namibia? | Event: namibia-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Assad remain President of Syria throug... | no | 1 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-friday | Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? | 69,075,539 | 69,075,539 |
95702660b1f7cc53e3c53aa04d0ef87e5060fe4d | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x94db8967b61b91b389bd5f271aaadd9cd4ec814ee23b326363758e2039ae0812 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? | Event: will-assad-remain-president-of-syria-through-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Stade... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-16? | 69,130,338 | 69,130,338 |
b2fe07b32185d558a36e37e56729b0a962412bd6 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0xfc44bda625b498bd8f45e7fc16c80441710bdd1bee0bd60019716329d563905a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? | Event: will-assad-remain-president-of-syria-through-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Stade Brestois and PSV end in a draw? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-psv | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-tot-2025-03-16 | Will Fulham vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | 69,130,338 | 69,130,338 |
64a408909c0712e2e4a3608f02e9d7ccd40ffcd5 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x65d176d3fb0cf1fe2878976b1eb3407b48f9e3a8711d6b7e5f8b004a32706815 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between Stade Brestois and PSV end in a draw? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-psv | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year in the 2024 Steam Awards? | Event: steam-awards-game-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | epl-lei-mun-2025-03-16 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-16? | 69,152,597 | 69,152,597 |
c8cd8140354a4712d0348e066daa02946959c6e8 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x4f4e1e28d5011476bf55ab2ca8fef77a727aff94e68d13ade71b2a9193a00a20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year in the 2024 Steam Awards? | Event: steam-awards-game-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-05? | Event: epl-liv-mun-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Feyenoord beat Bayern... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-at-kennedy-center-event-today | Will Trump say "Marxist" during Kennedy Center event today? | 69,189,316 | 69,189,316 |
e86b46fe7b2e4eec294c394802f3bc1d95527eda | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x2ef64b8f36cda0795c2729041aeda2221a8e309e32f7a9e064d47302aa92a4e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-05? | Event: epl-liv-mun-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-feyenoord-vs-bayern-munich | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump's approval rating be between 48% and 50% on January ... | yes | 0.000135 | trump-executive-order-ending-department-of-education-by-thursday | Trump executive order ending Department of Education by Thursday? | 69,256,820 | 69,256,820 |
13865ad5cb8372e300cc08e87eedbebb790fadf4 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x3a6f547a580dfa4c4ea14bc01f0f7467e64a241c65662362e440e683250a3d5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Feyenoord beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-feyenoord-vs-bayern-munich | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's approval rating be between 48% and 50% on January 31? | Event: trump-approval-on-rating-on-january-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9983167202655181
3. Question:... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-march-21 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on March 21? | 69,416,534 | 69,416,534 |
778bbcebda62681e1c89a1c1c1f09056c9fae282 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0xf1cd536d805a98563a4c7221fd088dabdebdba500f32505b646a440c0a044e77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump's approval rating be between 48% and 50% on January 31? | Event: trump-approval-on-rating-on-january-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9983167202655181
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 0.00438 | will-trump-reduce-majority-of-tariffs-before-july | Will Trump reduce majority of tariffs before July? | 69,903,639 | 69,903,639 |
ef826e8e9989e328def0c59c92cfaf42e33b05ed | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0xe43170930eab31f720913317025026fc97ef13124222b1e7d41f3302856b132e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Now and Then' win Record of the Year? | Event: grammys-record-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of the ... | yes | 0.111111 | intel-x-tsmc-joint-venture-announced-before-july | Intel x TSMC joint venture announced before July? | 69,903,650 | 69,903,650 |
9e5f9bd39a1fd60c3cc9436a38856340123b17c6 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0xd772eb271ffa91dad86199cd2bff536e00a77ce3544fcd52d35517b4ebefe72a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Now and Then' win Record of the Year? | Event: grammys-record-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of the Year? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.25-4.50 ... | no | 0.060002 | elon-musk-out-as-senior-advisor-to-trump-in-april | Elon Musk out as Senior Advisor to Trump in April? | 69,903,678 | 69,903,678 |
14a95d999bba51155c547f4bc786c5528164c9a7 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0xf522c1e233cf5ab0198c9d840b5a3bcc135ea05b6d5c4586f1146db16122fa8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of the Year? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.25-4.50 for January? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-january | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Mexico tariffs on China in... | no | 1 | which-country-will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-first | Will Trump lower tariffs on Vietnam next? | 70,143,250 | 70,143,250 |
dd81e5a7a2987e4be2bd3c3ada6564dcb2c7282f | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x0ba55515ce1acf2cb10369653c3c1148e0eb31f0ca8d0ec08f1781ab2abca110 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.25-4.50 for January? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-january | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexico tariffs on China in effect before July? | Event: mexico-tariffs-on-china-in-effect-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0007167107444794605
3. Que... | yes | 1 | uel-tot-fra-2025-04-10 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-04-10? | 70,157,621 | 70,157,621 |
2e7f14480c0df673c74cdc42ade7ccdb7555b491 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x4199011f0c6b66d39f74826c0f466beb1381b1128716b566ea5df9b9aa3a7409 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mexico tariffs on China in effect before July? | Event: mexico-tariffs-on-china-in-effect-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0007167107444794605
2. Question: Did the FBI destroy Epstein files? | Event: did-the-fbi-destroy-epstein-files | Choice: yes | Confidence: 8.445646269348152e-05
3... | yes | 1 | uel-lyo-mun-2025-04-10 | Will Lyon win on 2025-04-10? | 70,157,621 | 70,157,621 |
434261d66c31d97e7db8f020f183ce6753ffda5f | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x73f531e7088e7da29626e152d60566aa71a4a078b6ae6b7215577a963edc376c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Did the FBI destroy Epstein files? | Event: did-the-fbi-destroy-epstein-files | Choice: yes | Confidence: 8.445646269348152e-05
2. Question: Any Dems convicted of voter fraud in 2025? | Event: any-dems-convicted-of-voter-fraud-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: >100 redaction... | yes | 1 | ecuador-presidential-election | Will Luisa González win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? | 70,286,274 | 70,286,274 |
66965e2f3c19c1ae8e5da3afedf5f817b6589478 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x2865bc483dd523f4a36eb961f7467c8635ee9a13f39748bad55f645ce1f61512 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Any Dems convicted of voter fraud in 2025? | Event: any-dems-convicted-of-voter-fraud-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: >100 redactions in Epstein files? | Event: 100-redactions-in-epstein-files | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Romanian politician Georgescu guilty... | no | 0 | trump-declassifies-ufo-files-in-2025 | Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? | 70,447,379 | 70,447,379 |
a22916990c394fc1461944cbafac7d6eedf124c0 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x6f7606ebbc0ab5c171b32b55b963c161d37d9d803f7b28c6b2b026f16425d52d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: >100 redactions in Epstein files? | Event: 100-redactions-in-epstein-files | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Romanian politician Georgescu guilty in 2025? | Event: georgescu-guilty-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06463068181818182
3. Question: Measles declared public health em... | no | 0.000284 | india-military-action-against-pakistan-before-june | India military action against Pakistan before June? | 70,631,264 | 70,631,264 |
efd35d8c27c3ade7572bb0653d7fd0cf22ee8592 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x6614828eb735b658bb9c448b6d217f639f3ee17a3d0776cd41b1b86398491b3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Romanian politician Georgescu guilty in 2025? | Event: georgescu-guilty-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06463068181818182
2. Question: Measles declared public health emergency before April? | Event: measles-declared-public-health-emergency-before-april | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. ... | no | 0 | will-india-invade-pakistan-before-june | Will India invade Pakistan before July? | 70,672,748 | 70,672,748 |
0b7ea35f455f1afe0bce83f06f0418fda88c85a8 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x9e9d15a3107634486dfbd4f12d1cf3dbed7937987f77ef83043c13c3d5d0a1d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Measles declared public health emergency before April? | Event: measles-declared-public-health-emergency-before-april | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 0 | largest-pot-of-all-time-on-2025-hustler-casino-million-dollar-game | Largest pot of all time on 2025 Hustler Casino Million Dollar Game? | 70,871,078 | 70,871,078 |
b27ac9c3fc2cb2a81e6291ef64347d1cccd679fb | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x12eb452fe09ec59eb4ace82aa5ee3a493dfabb46bb1747e3864ad97216bcec87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April? | Event: trump-ends-all-military-aid-to-ukraine-before-april | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | no | 0.000076 | india-military-action-against-pakistan-by-wednesday | India military strike on Pakistan today? | 70,925,945 | 70,925,945 |
03791f49f08d18daa8118357a0c383788c6bebfb | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x339ab1ab801ac14f4461dba6c3b83af934b87c46b80f56412ed561de1741b848 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April? | Event: trump-ends-all-military-aid-to-ukraine-before-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00023819325045807836
2. Question: Will Trump make English the national language? | Event: will-trump-make-english-the-national-language | Choice: no ... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? | 70,952,975 | 70,952,975 |
37ec7ede7c1a0cedc41b3e6186d20f4c59d1f94c | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0xffb8295483d1dfc5b9558e79fe7c83e96ebd850c3a5f2379b9c5876f5ec4dc01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump make English the national language? | Event: will-trump-make-english-the-national-language | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5661155005258264
2. Question: Will "Porcelain War" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-documentary-feature-film | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | ucl-int-bar-2025-05-06 | Will Inter win on 2025-05-06? | 71,224,112 | 71,224,112 |
dd15c430c0010c802adce4811da7a91ed0680e76 | 0x3b93117d0803e68108b80bc7cd6920fe4a6c9ec4 | 0x257356688d46f7cbdc71e9efb15e3a60e43171139a0f35a32033f08d5c7a6227 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Porcelain War" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-documentary-feature-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Yuck!" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-animated-short-film | Choice: yes | Confiden... | no | 1 | of-rounds-to-elect-next-pope | Will the next Pope require 2 or fewer ballots? | 71,267,298 | 71,267,298 |
019c94a5d6ded5a346171998368ecdbbba97ea87 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0x85a4bf780f8172789a76db41b199d40e7551a4c515e6e368e907aed1140dd106 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?
Event: seychelles-presidential-election
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | seychelles-presidential-election | Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | 77,577,373 | 77,577,373 |
6fe384eb5749238514ba125b142958d7c0808a9c | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0xfb604d3a9e0be40c1e786eb96b5ae78357b75c9fe3e32c35f6a4c9d44f249fd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13?
Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target ma... | yes | 1 | uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | 77,651,578 | 77,651,578 |
897ed55da033f76b31ac9c45db4f0e4903d69cf2 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0x0e1bf4d5c116557ff5d5ae26549cea15af30eb30ca4d5a1e2487951ac7ed9620 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will England... | yes | 1 | uef-lat-eng-2025-10-14 | Will England win on 2025-10-14? | 77,693,704 | 77,693,704 |
2c86a86d6924c03be5347fd91b6487c1117fefa0 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0x64c75058dc333f0b8f7928483d4e544abbf641f12c07cf5def5f4df28aceaafc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | uef-esp-bul-2025-10-14 | Will Spain win on 2025-10-14? | 77,693,704 | 77,693,704 |
6c0b783791d58b84d38afb38fe4762ff08bf7dd9 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0x55065ab2c09360e89a43e6494f0fff733220a6644595d348d813e5748539da5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | fif-usa-aus-2025-10-14 | Will United States win on 2025-10-14? | 77,713,751 | 77,713,751 |
b46083c5e9944ec7afe055fa274b2ae200f13611 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0xc5a82bb4b923ef4130f16d78fa4b5f7cf49a2c541bc2c1c2f78170f941a1d885 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | 1-paid-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-17 | Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 17? | 77,823,811 | 77,823,811 |
44519bb2d692d8308bb9192156fa8401117aca81 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0x4472973213244c75974e74162c79f4c51878dd027d332796d209ad5529ea227f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19? | 77,915,064 | 77,915,064 |
e14265dbaf85cf88b319c491416a42339e9c1af1 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0xbcd3a86704f351ba41bffcccc61fe9abfd0e5a2c9c05309259b7f62028201038 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | den-mid-vbk-2025-10-19 | Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-10-19? | 77,915,064 | 77,915,064 |
f4c8df627b15c0b74f8845053b14f8052ac725c1 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0xc860e58fdc46bb9430f8f7825b350184e438958d5c3df1c72ad33ebd0e9799c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | no | 1 | fl1-nan-lil-2025-10-19 | Will FC Nantes win on 2025-10-19? | 77,915,064 | 77,915,064 |
01886e78962fd1b33fc07c0ef5faae4e160cc3e2 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0x4e1c130ea05c0beb25bc5f7e1ced0359651b9abeac000529709aa96e17d80435 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | no | 1 | epl-eve-tot-2025-10-26 | Will Everton win on 2025-10-26? | 78,214,217 | 78,214,217 |
9f1a56f6e3bd406524695ec8cb61550d7de09ee4 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0x785cb84757abc0166b5ba225480ca3b550bfdfecb1aa326851b8c1cb994bf3dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | no | 1 | fl1-ren-ogc-2025-10-26 | Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-26? | 78,214,217 | 78,214,217 |
c921187489287c845c1775b85f6e2379b0e7c967 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0xedc86df2caed7e4d0ab02cd01ec45c550d730a496a150eb045f6221fcb6e4301 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | no | 1 | sea-fio-bol-2025-10-26 | Will Fiorentina win on 2025-10-26? | 78,214,217 | 78,214,217 |
65ecb6bddc794b9b7dc52df10b4782a422bed173 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0x2db5cda59a82c59bc42e3a3ff1020613b231136b15d21a7f9a741fe5e2aa4d30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27 | Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | 78,257,050 | 78,257,050 |
1945e94efb943cc0685d4a587ddf251055a0ca0c | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0x3d39d9321a8c4531c50f41f5bc2320cbfcc6694bce63d0430406baf249f04e75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-27? | 78,257,050 | 78,257,050 |
c3e9b74e0f6ec00be12a7c68935b1dea9b8a8ee9 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0x1a83a0a505aa21f628d13cad2233b7777a841c6549cf8c0fe6b7575ed73b52e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | dfb-fvi-fcm-2025-10-29 | Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2025-10-29? | 78,345,423 | 78,345,423 |
8f8fbba9594359ccc246eae37ef843c950503c7a | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0x484cb1ff4e261fa49b7143b4f2aa2f2928edfcc2c749a5246cdb64c3cdcc2294 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | sea-juv-udi-2025-10-29 | Will Juventus win on 2025-10-29? | 78,345,423 | 78,345,423 |
0f8b3c509baa9bfe3983bf39fbd631aa47c51dd3 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0x6a2ea2c7e0eaa676498ec080db13ac691c85a873a8203b77db895a9ae71f0a74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | no | 1 | dfb-mai-stu-2025-10-29 | Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-10-29? | 78,345,423 | 78,345,423 |
f99819ef6f3735de8a34cb5864e17817aee6f1db | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0xa7d336f17c8daa1b4d90c534f2766e101ac13e67fba292a760cf649109a32b3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | no | 1 | dfb-scp-lev-2025-10-29 | Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2025-10-29? | 78,345,423 | 78,345,423 |
d22ccbbc9b31a0722e348f7a1acc001ec72352ea | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0xb8f7945f6cd9bbe796a932196d6d3d4abb656b1fad0d5e33c03dc80ea126169d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | sea-rom-par-2025-10-29 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-29? | 78,345,423 | 78,345,423 |
eab6592acd83088ce42ec05d0953a620f7d6126b | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0xbb2225a932831be03fcc3ab9fccbfa7f42e1bfaa4ef5074d69c81b2229af80dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | sea-com-ver-2025-10-29 | Will Como win on 2025-10-29? | 78,345,423 | 78,345,423 |
1cf4d94311e0169b25419ec9dceb719851af4e41 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0xfc3750fdb245e56e1bf157736cc889dee2becae6d45b659b758b4b5c7cd3c953 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | dfb-fur-fck-2025-10-29 | Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2025-10-29? | 78,345,423 | 78,345,423 |
86912c77f3987dee19683f15aabfae1e363191ec | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0x33a30115fd5fd61d63696ee2ae7663e12fe45c25f8bbd5e81d7eb2bca12c4d46 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | mls-laf-aus-2025-10-29 | Will Los Angeles FC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,365,941 | 78,365,941 |
ab8c9a78a8565fcb329c6764e255f4ea21f7b434 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0xe7f0f9b8c424e412b0e677a1e3e10a4aba797851a500d424f0eb4ce130b6e3f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | no | 1 | sea-cag-sas-2025-10-30 | Will Cagliari win on 2025-10-30? | 78,386,586 | 78,386,586 |
7c7c93401b33b836e91431b0be39e4beb492ffd6 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0x270e49036c5f2ed072c9680ec14a5a3e25a104d08e7074716c57cee1b115b50b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | lib-pal-lqu-2025-10-30 | Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-30? | 78,413,411 | 78,413,411 |
bd94d8f68f6b0761915dd9326c5253f952315fa3 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0x23c9101efb37263d6607542edf9c7d1899015571c6ab5654a1bda6e825c1f29d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | chi-cha-bgu-2025-11-01 | Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,461,020 | 78,461,020 |
b4be8ed5e4b3d2fd88e678b08d0168d67f1518a3 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0xa497879fa6951974311092a53f5959cd92fb68d076328f052195916ffef732da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | lal-vil-ray-2025-11-01 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-11-01? | 78,461,020 | 78,461,020 |
dc86a9df7baee1a503e588b0e502ed7a81f36758 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0xa729099a55ee4d4b0ab3f6e6992a52c49ef98b6e247b9faa41b86b163be01095 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | chi-sha-jin-2025-11-01 | Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,461,020 | 78,461,020 |
66c08fa7842d769db4f312d1c52775ace8d8f971 | 0x3b9349686bd4de8bc0456f3c99a3953df8531ff9 | 0x513e00c83a312a98de895ee5bd2e48352c559f45db3b1aa64aaa6ea7075c7eef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | sea-par-bol-2025-11-02 | Will Bologna win on 2025-11-02? | 78,523,790 | 78,523,790 |
783e9092ee49468f1fb4f477a005d634f38c7bfc | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0xb7e8c38f75123db4e1f6f457bd662f28464b70b83a366fed65ef46c32a545eaf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | up | 0.000071 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | 76,525,203 | 76,525,313 |
11e9d941a111f38ff213201225d42e0b56e73b48 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0xf72629c088cb26e3cb1d1f3561db425183b7081394f911e2e14825ec5c9518c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et
Predict the user's choice and confi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | 76,527,011 | 76,527,200 |
0e3dbc0f97725acb0e76e08c694fcbcb6d1c1dfd | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x654a84412b66bf2edb0ee00950718ec37a8be6d2acdd9e73ad966832f181b785 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market... | up | 0.427886 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2PM ET | 76,529,835 | 76,530,604 |
b833d95151386761f833fd57ef4407593806bb04 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0xfda50b299f45074641900fee5f2dad869e0907d664f2056b826454a43660e12f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3PM ET | 76,530,933 | 76,530,965 |
1e79f857909572a74d893a63d22efb5641a55104 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x7a6ae8f2bcfafcde2a97df269308cb31d7bc8bdbcb89679dd9c25f18b51e6b1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 4PM ET | 76,532,495 | 76,533,454 |
19307aefd951f7bc58b20150073b871be6123a5d | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0xf3c90254ebc5b45e2c4db5ec8002aa950d7d73ed9f4b3f49e0e503e552069663 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | up | 0.279039 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 5PM ET | 76,534,421 | 76,535,650 |
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