sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
311919441d615c3ec6985ab921e916498d6a6252 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x3279115f8a51f1df1e3cefbfde18daf14efa47f84ce1fe90505ba22d894a2ac9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-6pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 6PM ET | 76,536,603 | 76,537,047 |
36ecf433f68018bbf2db9bbe2c3a3068018fbd62 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x0860819144df026b721dc82e1d1b5704830e52814e5886ff8eb8748b8cb56915 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-7pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 7PM ET | 76,537,664 | 76,541,387 |
c9cdb05421bda3a713dfe50852efdbe8ab4bdf55 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0xfbb11e9b089819f419cd9425388090faa475b476caaa3b16d1f5a14fff46b641 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 9PM ET | 76,541,279 | 76,541,820 |
d7e0db0d04438c89a7424e90bfc5033867e3e2f3 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0xe2186fd4e1bcf0c5fcfde01fc809823995ee069b8201ea7148aafbc75e196be6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 10PM ET | 76,542,921 | 76,542,921 |
6884454012ac34a17f20655f0c0a796f8c056ac0 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x9ac2bcd1916727960edb9355fcf3fc7229980c77c0c3d3b1f027b33696633848 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11PM ET | 76,544,390 | 76,548,131 |
666a7f9a80c4f157c08b728bd54b61561b3ebb10 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x0b285c155a2a8f46b7e9706006ed25bd7fc0f2541bd10f04f13d992b52412d33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | up | 0.349944 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 12AM ET | 76,546,323 | 76,547,437 |
cb9e92eadf7649048690745ee894a74af031409e | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x235672e2d29c73e13a5bc688216bc85d758519b7a0a18b8979d3740fbbb139e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0.189846 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 2AM ET | 76,549,232 | 76,550,483 |
bf7fa235cc07a3c61ee9fc3a986e0169a96effc4 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x9969c893f35bd288e62428c627ee0e9d45dd4a57d507ef031d5aa488f4b9f363 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 3AM ET | 76,551,380 | 76,555,732 |
597b2f860fba7eb67ab1292c7927f4ea9da7df3e | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x877653fafa59ce43af5ae8890b8305a4be3dea394fd9aa63734e0198d3eddff7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 6AM ET | 76,555,956 | 76,560,125 |
24aeb24876746f4f950683275601e28d5e71c60a | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x6cce5850ad2bf235f6bca65ba98eab34d26c4f3c31beeaa2c28a3446cf799565 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 8AM ET | 76,560,398 | 76,563,386 |
059531bdf5584c789b7b566ea0cd975f02f2ab99 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x443e615230c18d93b750c335f0a40da1dc6faab3ac5c00f90d0a183ba745df64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 8AM ET | 76,599,549 | 76,599,698 |
8f64d57fab8ec8387b96b7678d7329be9bd42001 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x8e178fe606eff9e2e4ed5c6887436e3bc5cec2d97845f1ac3145745210704e82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0.158573 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9AM ET | 76,601,111 | 76,602,419 |
3f9bc691839c7a85ac3a4a9039ac0fb218229f9f | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x1c200d307e4a773113571855ab4e7665dda7f979c630c6d3226f252a34b40105 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-21-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 10AM ET | 76,724,749 | 76,728,528 |
c91008ac925b61a6800666f2dc046b92234e0fc0 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0xaffc9309a90c97930572faf8bf400da02989b5f4f3f99dd1acefdcd8ed988281 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-21-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 1PM ET | 76,730,131 | 76,730,152 |
58834b3fff9c6d43b18feb5be22ea17fbca674c5 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x47e8372f5c2902b0381c1bc9d08a2f720e4c833a19449e5c848b6fa0cb10b881 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-21-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 11AM ET | 76,730,134 | 76,730,134 |
25febc9bcc29d79c491b025cc24f220202e449be | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x090be0f18457a661993e183fbac1808e0f742011574d557d892df8594f4435bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-21-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 10PM ET | 76,745,824 | 76,748,554 |
7ae7c483a06b27256f0eb88ecf4ec796f15c4265 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x32c7034664956b0e4d23abd252a53c296107f23d1ee5c77b7f20505441dd17fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0.333392 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-22-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 3AM ET | 76,754,274 | 76,754,814 |
c111c6765449fd72ea41685a39964f289b29e04b | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x88c7202974c02a957335011ff9ef850e94e146555c6ff904fd4de38313a8cd8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-22-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 7AM ET | 76,761,178 | 76,761,497 |
a56c731dbb9ae4555349d7360525bcfc5f678a81 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0xdf7061cc5437e87c6b3632dc593238dcf9c3f6ab549ad2ca46ee7a039343bd30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-22-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10AM ET | 76,765,371 | 76,768,849 |
a21b32fd0996badab7fd5643ab9b64c5cce5be76 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0xae27fb87b6c76d45b98ab24ec39a0df2f1ac9b77fa75648393c4a1b31da49bed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-22-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 11AM ET | 76,767,133 | 76,770,765 |
d6156c972c874b36b23d51db70073fa8e62a482f | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x9300b0258c74d742644a5de4afb61c77318ea41d8f9c9e9401942a30fb0decbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-22-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 12PM ET | 76,769,097 | 76,786,417 |
3bc34dcffc2a14d031fbaf3938f5094828388376 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x2c7589668572f4d1d9d98dfceb33dd29f961c427ffbf3f173d3a8838a6846f67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-23-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 5AM ET | 76,797,922 | 76,801,501 |
721664b4b8f399af7b94e95aadc24e70dba3d9f3 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x78e9452e76ffdacde27cbb5e6b53aa4a3f56ef15efe073a850123f2d68836426 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-23-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 7AM ET | 76,801,828 | 76,802,372 |
a23764d5f29ae2e7e0d8646cd5b32b4b1932b508 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x44107968e4e24295eaa99c92b2995576a0a0aaf217dd41a241aab5208aa5a91c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-23-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 8AM ET | 76,803,800 | 76,807,204 |
adb4f6618a5108da76e14d17b6bc31d9d626fff6 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0x84edd6e6f43d5f6b64e1c3c2c4cb5a752c41fd0f110e0d0db00825318c7c8c01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.139150652312997e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-23-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 11PM ET | 76,828,203 | 76,834,781 |
f777a9b9e32913263d60742a0d9324d995f5093e | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0xd2078e8f8e682388d3bc8743b8ce5a4083fe0db63486f581d9b8b57234721fbe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-2pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.4278860295881963
3. Question: Bitcoi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-24-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 12AM ET | 76,830,140 | 76,830,140 |
f16e33f53f9e755182ac45e31bf6d00a361f7005 | 0x3b960a217d9fed0ed1bf4f705de16144e3f4a652 | 0xdbd19d63fd18e5e017621e73c43460d1be0178e79e4817c069cd828f593a3d0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-2pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.4278860295881963
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-16-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-24-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 3AM ET | 76,835,183 | 76,839,274 |
cf1bef8c6f8968afa71ad7ceeef52cf2896703bf | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x7bcf60b146f4d60ca757c98e0e70ae76bb82377e5e9f3b4513c0382578270252 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17?
Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | 57,089,905 | 57,089,905 |
254cc55d139ff66163eae050d273f7bf78186c80 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x9cacb4c4d50c6405c71075dc0091bde5a3259aad1ef90768f946b2acaad1f386 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times?
Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JS... | no | 1 | of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | 57,361,361 | 57,361,361 |
9346b47f46c11a32070463097f9500c9b175eb9f | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x0a998108d07858ad1410079f5b2c502ff4ac5436203bca8369749077502ed78f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023... | yes | 1 | nba-champion-2023-24 | Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | 57,595,798 | 57,595,798 |
1005000e74823ef09c37f1576d3082dadb75c3e2 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xd8bdedacf316c8df762d0864a32f17bd4a764a1bcdf6fa917b5910eb44e2fc69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | yes | 1 | champions-league-winner-2024 | Will Dortmund win the 2023-24 Champions League? | 57,662,058 | 57,662,058 |
6290a12e770a6459ca911c9d25981e2231f13d0e | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xb80c8a1243fe3feffbf525d44a6e5e5692d880fb352fb28a4606a030ae6e2c84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | yes | 1 | french-open-winner-womens-singles | Will Iga Swiatek win the 2024 French Open Women's Singles? | 57,939,594 | 57,939,594 |
002c68eec7ceaf45c1cb8832d837bb9bbd9070a1 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x4ea63b3674a46b2d5c7436d32dc7b0a80c23556dcaadefe98b428d8ec48c9610 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | no | 1 | french-open-mens-singles | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | 58,053,265 | 58,053,265 |
a4dec4e6f8471e02fb56c396dc502513083349b6 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x1a14c0aa35a3cd69336e21e9984cf252b66e425db8413fd9a9cf351f0fa6d374 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | ireland | 0 | usa-vs-ireland-cricket-t20-world-cup | USA vs. Ireland - Cricket T20 World Cup | 58,141,329 | 58,169,841 |
e1b111973b719f7f8e678d32b3b247c821566c8d | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x22a86682ab2986d590704b08c8b752f48788b76a5ca67f71d35bf0cbf70e2883 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | yes | 0.000014 | euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Will Germany win? | 58,514,717 | 58,517,299 |
74722f1dcee9ab30db5e43d2708b26aee6f51e5f | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x81586cbcf857d29da8b625e80b84b0102c1dd00b0de1902275e3a7c792329b27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | no | 0.000033 | euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Will Switzerland win? | 58,516,524 | 58,517,780 |
24795fc1b18fb259288686e0ee6d91b3f494ff94 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x57badf7944e18e1cee11719268a5cc3610c441ed1a659189615a6cff80194f23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | no | 1 | euro-2024-scotland-vs-hungary | Will the match be a draw? | 58,561,009 | 58,561,009 |
776fd4d4f81328e957905160201fe3c20d0c283e | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x7337549076878d45027bdb51bce58c00d9f17d395ace88442c95fd386cf36502 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | no | 1 | euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Will the match be a draw? | 58,561,009 | 58,561,009 |
26cc06a3dc06e1ea71ca789a3556684bc447b540 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x135865901841ec415ca2f621c8ce58d4aab20fecfc17186c40bcbd500cccdfc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-netherlands-vs-austria | Will the match be a draw? | 58,612,787 | 58,612,787 |
c782ed0d528d67a1ea8482dfa31ba9e0f26ce454 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x27f4048eabb396fc8cec25afc5352a2dda4ceb9cb4bd0c28d1f26af5070cb836 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | no | 1 | euro-2024-netherlands-vs-austria | Will the Netherlands win? | 58,612,787 | 58,612,787 |
ab3e9e258ff87c6982ebb93e196c42f3ce9c2275 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x5bd277b57a22eee2b73264a876abc5eca50950ff160e4b905ac4e8f537ef128d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-netherlands-vs-austria | Will Austria win? | 58,612,787 | 58,612,787 |
f5f92c64da82044078be56fc7b90d2811cd2b4fc | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xc03040ea457fe12680374114bbf09cd3eaa8510120f2ce5de5bb1960eda83dbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | no | 1 | euro-2024-slovakia-vs-romania | Will the match be a draw? | 58,654,133 | 58,654,133 |
b325daec10795dd733b064f9c35bdef380879d95 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x13c489c77ec7b2902fbd3d43205a8761dd9310267638fd8f1fdb46825b5e8236 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | yes | 1 | euro-finals-how-will-the-game-end | Will Spain win in 90 min? | 59,371,304 | 59,371,304 |
e50734682dcf8cca7d4709df18532bb27dce71f1 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xf2830173b5e239e7db0509d4489105107225101cce05b41c1818b4b78e00d6e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | 70k | 0.000015 | will-btc-hit-50k-or-70k-first | Will $BTC hit $50k or $70k first? | 59,379,429 | 59,379,429 |
1831782b6b5d3673ad1ea3eca8c0fb5be7e49604 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x36d5414df4b94cefc8d076b48ef7a86d552b0cb42add1838b1edaa990d9d6a64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | no | 1 | wsop-main-event-winner | Will Joe Serock win the WSOP main event? | 59,456,466 | 59,456,466 |
f54ee9e707e2e89d79a3426346a776a09d520e53 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xe3dcbbd7e800fe7a8dde86d7e63027f383df548f7c0d1d0c8d24440683123010 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | no | 1 | wsop-main-event-winner | Will Brian Kim win the WSOP main event? | 59,457,146 | 59,457,146 |
0c75113a3122e0aa2046e88bf65a9a98ca3e9f6b | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x6a98d5d6903279a133009d8dfaef73432a77758ff4a63c391921082820cbdef2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-july-2024 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2024 meeting? | 60,046,737 | 60,046,737 |
594b6ae2138ee79c8d403f1cab76c9316111772f | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x813e44dd1717ed1e1ccfa5f67b5e4d681f7a91cf12dfd8278608698f03b0f89d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-july-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2024 meeting? | 60,059,736 | 60,059,736 |
747380e1b2e62fc641319165ef20737c0cd038c9 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x8fe11bfea8cfe523d8c384b5f7b14440e461c784d9672bf469032b49ae383a57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | no | 1 | 100m-winner-w | Will Sha’Carri Richardson (USA) win gold in 100m W? | 60,163,807 | 60,163,807 |
7a5fb84a870a943b4ce50d9c12dc93ffe3639bfc | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xaa69f9c948b8a162eb305285bf31a581868c23a289573889b27361726c213b64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | no | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Will another movie gross most in 2024? | 60,182,651 | 60,182,651 |
0ba8f6d8665fce470f3efd0c68e1b55a2cee938b | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xd6f4c41fd20b8c6d5b48d528ead981d8fdf3da99d05018443e2d5bc60085e3dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | no | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,259,526 | 60,259,526 |
8947ff6f46f211bbaf5b51f48c601851fc623c1b | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x57f90c89879a5b5e69fad9c2a261fa6f44f3653001aa3a02446aed92aaff21bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | yes | 1 | democratic-vp-nominee | Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | 60,279,065 | 60,279,065 |
3e29441caf748d7cd3eb676498e7d1fd4f9adade | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xe3b1bc389210504ebcb9cffe4b0ed06ccac50561e0f24abb6379984cec030f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | no | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 60,341,564 | 63,865,005 |
a342edb0a39482252c9d73bccd54621ef550999b | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x2a79c9e6b5222a219707d0ab2db31d5b320f67b18c514850b5c0788346204a32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Will Elon tweet 120-129 times? | 60,398,580 | 60,398,580 |
c6a452db471773a13eb4e3d7e619dee5573b38c1 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x5601ad6d92a65a6e1812fb2811a99b822526984179ff9f7058f9f27fba4ee400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | no | 1 | 4x400m-relay-winner-w | Will the USA win gold in the Women’s 4x400m Relay? | 60,428,780 | 60,428,780 |
8cd8ed3799df74b5c3992011bf30d6366ce54962 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xee33915865abe8a7ef9c794f431627bd458731d7896069e4d91da384b4e57041 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | no | 1 | 4x400m-relay-winner-w | Will Jamaica win gold in the Women’s 4x400m Relay? | 60,443,616 | 60,443,616 |
8d8a8a7ef5af8a9f86d95125ba0aaa5dae9d5842 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xb5b890631a69bbcfa618a9c1709c9139cc73f64c10f1220d96ec4efce3aed990 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | no | 0.999915 | paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-gold-medals | China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | 60,482,908 | 60,482,908 |
9668ee5c8bd5046e202e255cbcc9412d03f3b2e5 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x6dd080489bda24aa249051c3f75b4e4157fe805b7235279044c8bd800c6bde73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champ... | no | 0.641026 | next-israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-in | Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in August? | 60,693,247 | 60,693,247 |
bbf9f556c0f9e34e6e8cfc66835b85c425496c2e | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x8b015dc82a3de6423046e0fe611d2c6b07fcd7ae66550a97bf94e7b80caa07d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 115 or more times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-17-and-may-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dortmund win the 2023-24 ... | no | 0 | speedkai-beat-minecraft-on-current-42nd-attempt | Speed/Kai beat Minecraft on 42nd attempt? | 60,883,924 | 60,895,733 |
7141e21ab24ceb457672c8a2a112d520fc1d2663 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x53f17ee956afc0fc9d27064804dd5afd7a147799b0da8f3b6c2cedabbf113a32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dortmund win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win the 2024 Fre... | yes | 1 | epl-wolverhampton-vs-chelsea | Will Wolverhampton vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | 61,040,913 | 61,040,913 |
86b0c90a20f7acaec592d83ef004cace120568d0 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x92b4a0985ebb0a74d6c871870d96449fbb57b5f077ea9ee8125a976d8557d049 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dortmund win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win the 2024 French Open Women's Singles? | Event: french-open-winner-womens-singles | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Alc... | no | 1 | epl-bournemouth-vs-newcastle | Will Newcastle beat Bournemouth? | 61,040,913 | 61,040,913 |
af067f51ffc6506601808a7b83bfbbadf21293ec | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x2fc417b2e4f3be9d8007d48bcab0e9c3015c4e988f0faf3d081f08ffe0317503 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win the 2024 French Open Women's Singles? | Event: french-open-winner-womens-singles | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-open-mens-singles | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: USA vs. ... | yes | 0.00002 | pavel-durov-released-in-august | Pavel Durov released in August? | 61,044,340 | 61,056,940 |
634eb2cc63b0577618d98cadd63872b6dd3fe0a5 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x65d8eda38400e5d519ce2c819e6334d9fc0e4fd746b2ef091c13210549cef567 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-open-mens-singles | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: USA vs. Ireland - Cricket T20 World Cup | Event: usa-vs-ireland-cricket-t20-world-cup | Choice: ireland | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | ... | yes | 0.000003 | ethereum-dips-below-2000-by-sept-30-2024 | Ethereum dips below $2,000 by Sept 30? | 61,124,628 | 61,884,745 |
723e81d2e056a5f6625a0f0831e1493342b14c5e | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xcc83fcd841ad88792f3b3d8615479bbff9a86b0504f660b730791d55ae9e5a70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USA vs. Ireland - Cricket T20 World Cup | Event: usa-vs-ireland-cricket-t20-world-cup | Choice: ireland | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.4415207795220368e-05
3. Question: Will Switzerland win? | Event: eur... | no | 1 | epl-west-ham-vs-manchester-city | Will Manchester City beat West Ham? | 61,319,578 | 61,319,578 |
bb42d84f6a8dc972009551f2afbcb1ff42f37017 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xee5fdda02b9b52118a350df8b9194a2e04686ece13bac470c2480fd46d05c42a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.4415207795220368e-05
2. Question: Will Switzerland win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.3318889814591376e-05
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-20... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Will Elon tweet 150 or more times? | 61,319,578 | 61,319,578 |
6dee4bd611fff59f237119a08a0fb8fb2dd0923f | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x975192a50f6964b2da70d4c8373e7fab1e0d6f1f48f71787c4b6802a9ba9280c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Switzerland win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.3318889814591376e-05
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-scotland-vs-hungary | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-... | no | 0.000354 | will-taylor-swift-attend-chiefs-vs-ravnes | Will Taylor Swift attend Chiefs game? | 61,438,175 | 61,438,544 |
d41d19017f36f369770b3a6e4d7dbb6e83d23ada | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x4873de62c03e7ee0776aac2c26e32d9466b631af8af0169e2cca03bafccd42c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-scotland-vs-hungary | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-austria | Ch... | kamala | 0 | favorite-to-win-on-polymarket-one-day-after-debate | Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate? | 61,578,753 | 61,578,753 |
669582c9ce2216e0fc0a0e1416a22305cecac2df | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x270e4e449c69779eee370285c9af3350485680a24eb122c3d345639943090100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-austria ... | no | 1 | dota-2-the-international-champions | Will Team Liquid win The International 2024? | 61,724,538 | 61,731,042 |
7a3b88219e4dc61d058fc41262bd26ce84433456 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x08a025d905d95c6f9dc6dbfb35668fc34c18bcb7939315d8aa8bba96bc4e5291 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-austria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Austria win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-austria | Choice... | republican | 0.000144 | fact-check-suspect-registered-d-or-r | Fact Check: Suspect registered D or R? | 61,875,592 | 61,888,330 |
3ae77529dbc8fe5baac7121cca8402a9478638b9 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x70357debf15a956d82d8b2022aaf5f868763d1d0716d2c6e5ce35712e49a3b0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-austria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Austria win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-romania | Choice: n... | no | 0.52109 | fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | 61,886,780 | 61,993,753 |
8a7d07169f4f025d2dfc1e056c93d1d89b5f8fff | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xcb38dcd60d7f685d62577430ea6a410c2bcd878e8939dd569fb0e92112475523 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Austria win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain win in 90 min? | Event: euro-finals-how-will-the-game-end | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Will Kamala lead in RCP by 0-0.9 September 13? | 61,888,423 | 61,888,423 |
7e081ddd03a1bb59b996c062349cd40dd95af905 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x81ff72866d5c85872f2b45d3a81f696c93e8c4ea99f720b05806ad0893e2b100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spain win in 90 min? | Event: euro-finals-how-will-the-game-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $BTC hit $50k or $70k first? | Event: will-btc-hit-50k-or-70k-fir... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | 61,931,274 | 61,961,136 |
a5938c515c566b48379f598c00d5f7f99653df67 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x0a666772b0779ab250e3cad0a63a9250a4f2dfad8282ef4015c740d401f9e6e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win in 90 min? | Event: euro-finals-how-will-the-game-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $BTC hit $50k or $70k first? | Event: will-btc-hit-50k-or-70k-first | Choice: 70k | Confidence: 1.5031024064919524e-05
3. Question: Will Joe Serock win the WSOP main event? |... | spirit | 0.2784 | esl-counter-strike-quarterfinals-spirit-vs-natus-vincere | ESL Counter-Strike Quarterfinals: Spirit vs Natus Vincere | 62,044,076 | 62,072,830 |
42773afbc4f40b345cedd9a4a48921d498837c50 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x91bb7308be37921fdfed91a00f4210f8676b0f7fcad7c3db7dc17f2883afd000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $BTC hit $50k or $70k first? | Event: will-btc-hit-50k-or-70k-first | Choice: 70k | Confidence: 1.5031024064919524e-05
2. Question: Will Joe Serock win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-main-event-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brian Kim win the WSOP main event?... | no | 1 | nfl-week-3-how-many-points | Will there be less than 625 points scored NFL Week 3? | 62,046,053 | 62,046,053 |
6df2dc918bf60b873dda7b76f622587ca54f2bd1 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x617ae2a9954a259292f72b949c2cfb30e56602ff046b50f7ff21509e977d0700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Serock win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-main-event-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brian Kim win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-main-event-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2024 meet... | no | 1 | esl-counterstrike-champion-2024 | Will Team Vitality win ESL Counter-Strike Champion 2024? | 62,046,402 | 62,048,017 |
50264692cca50abf04fe0923c5af874bc9564517 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xbda8de856ef2be46f8d9601f5c98929dfbcfb12fa51f076dd23d97767d2931e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brian Kim win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-main-event-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-july-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rates b... | no | 1 | esl-counterstrike-champion-2024 | Will Team Vitality win ESL Counter-Strike Champion 2024? | 62,091,905 | 62,091,905 |
8844000f38f6ed70a9b1adcdb952adbd0f98defc | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x6e3a19f10471e0b0f5c31119fae13603580557f926fca7dcc949767e538ce900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-july-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-july-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | epl-top-scorer | Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL? | 62,095,127 | 62,095,728 |
1c2fff42b1db95c186a8cbb2edcee7df8486df42 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x40140046d0554735f3d1049909d4314ad9111811c5eda9ad8ac36b0af76392aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-july-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sha’Carri Richardson (USA) win gold in 100m W? | Event: 100m-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another movie gross mo... | yes | 0.555514 | esl-counterstrike-champion-2024 | Will Eternal Fire win ESL Counter-Strike Champion 2024? | 62,206,208 | 62,206,208 |
5cd61234f3e542ec84405f308173429be7a1b5c6 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x37a570f13c5e78f85eef34de2430736e15691dca8f5820946388bc15b9d956e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sha’Carri Richardson (USA) win gold in 100m W? | Event: 100m-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another movie gross most in 2024? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic President... | yes | 0.000026 | will-israel-enter-lebanon-before-November | Will Israel invade Lebanon before November? | 62,300,243 | 62,300,243 |
eb3a1816f880255fa6a4b29aca797533c3a97233 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x74743fe453d866f40bc8dd686c9ce29a5215c3ecd26939ee40a638ba29f06e5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another movie gross most in 2024? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tim Walz be the 2024 ... | no | 1 | will-russia-capture-toretsk-before-october | Will Russia capture Toretsk before October? | 62,763,951 | 62,763,951 |
5ba6c0d0e4f71c904b29ebc4e2874f60c73149f8 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xde9c33ba6b60366980c1e9d0eb6a83909c90d15398a39da6d430ba19331f5800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump win th... | no | 1 | minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,813,028 | 63,813,089 |
21ad7bd6286cb908635278b64d4bee7f64ead56e | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x462064249d24533db900b59e7ad3234e08d850f341c1873b6be52f7cbd753a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 120-129 ... | no | 1 | iowa-margin-of-victory | Will the Republican candidate win Iowa by 10.0% or more? | 63,822,567 | 63,822,567 |
f4b28e788d0033f0d5694d0215c3502923179a35 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x773a2323665c6c8b6d2d9cd022cef4672d78675d34bb7f4ca0681fa0a642bb00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 120-129 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the USA win gold in the Women... | no | 1 | wisconsin-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | 63,836,376 | 63,836,376 |
ae58677fa8bcfbe4f6a3d544bfa3c54969dd0621 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xe5563dab86018374e0d7331d00b754cb4444ef7ce11670f6715058e76fc54600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 120-129 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the USA win gold in the Women’s 4x400m Relay? | Event: 4x400m-relay-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jamaica win gold in the Women’s 4x400m Relay? |... | no | 1 | iowa-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election? | 63,836,903 | 63,836,903 |
c8f9eb4c7654e50d336be817b4ea37d6f8ca1d83 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x253510b086f0c23c1b1a58ace144563775eeac978e2c983d0f68832d619a2100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win gold in the Women’s 4x400m Relay? | Event: 4x400m-relay-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jamaica win gold in the Women’s 4x400m Relay? | Event: 4x400m-relay-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: China wins the most gold medals in 2024 P... | no | 1 | pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | 63,853,556 | 63,853,556 |
8154bb7b5286e48571ee48b32f5377b98cd364e6 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x9d110bc79834c6cd630822f0ca6add74004cae814282f7d3aff9b843c4f63300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jamaica win gold in the Women’s 4x400m Relay? | Event: 4x400m-relay-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-gold-medals | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.99991511471402
3. Ques... | no | 1 | michigan-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? | 63,870,438 | 63,873,629 |
ad5d876dbb70d5476bda4a81de0c46da083817a0 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x367be8313ab188e17a50370d037de4555f076e3ed988a3ca1701746c5d378300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-gold-medals | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.99991511471402
2. Question: Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in August? | Event: next-israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-in | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.64102564... | no | 1 | nevada-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Nevada Presidential Election? | 63,874,383 | 63,874,383 |
15ec4c81166dd8f540d54665ae6c8e4be6b75e41 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x14018049e265a2d88f284be9588e2e3542e3a3df08ccdb344d28355dd7fdd8ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in August? | Event: next-israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-in | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6410256410256411
2. Question: Speed/Kai beat Minecraft on 42nd attempt? | Event: speedkai-beat-minecraft-on-current-42nd-attempt | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wol... | no | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,975,257 | 63,975,257 |
5e36390c23b95198b5faf3629e438b940e49c06e | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x2010ff3939e8e664dd57369aa907bbaa6d03ae18be27fe3ab2f4cdcb95a8b2ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Speed/Kai beat Minecraft on 42nd attempt? | Event: speedkai-beat-minecraft-on-current-42nd-attempt | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Wolverhampton vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-wolverhampton-vs-chelsea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle beat B... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? | 63,975,265 | 63,975,265 |
638ba011094e6d8f8de1ae534fe8c9dd54f56a58 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x896ed831aef8b7210f9d100c9ea42e41eae0575c9b6ad0f1fef26620f48d22f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolverhampton vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-wolverhampton-vs-chelsea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle beat Bournemouth? | Event: epl-bournemouth-vs-newcastle | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Pavel Durov released in August? | Event: pavel-du... | yes | 1 | texas-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,975,265 | 63,975,265 |
6ae0e7067564ffe867bf833f453754bb256d2e6b | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xc6485bb7ea46d7bb89beb9c91e7572ecfc72a6273789496f78bc5e989e4d1638 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle beat Bournemouth? | Event: epl-bournemouth-vs-newcastle | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Pavel Durov released in August? | Event: pavel-durov-released-in-august | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.9594583716530656e-05
3. Question: Ethereum dips below $2,000 by Sept 30? | E... | no | 0.198342 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,975,265 | 63,975,265 |
4e7af4463690c42dd82b83c5182e989b3d4ac4c3 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xb4961db4b70b4ebeebce6dee9816eda7a18443ae2d25240a70a0614a01f44ed2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pavel Durov released in August? | Event: pavel-durov-released-in-august | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.9594583716530656e-05
2. Question: Ethereum dips below $2,000 by Sept 30? | Event: ethereum-dips-below-2000-by-sept-30-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.627926757196819e-06
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | 64,351,024 | 64,351,024 |
6fbba1222a381bb8fb5cafb26bbad8c42e0e5e8a | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x09013848a1c034e7052d49da259ae608b790ce8e8d67d58a355af3174e830ec5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum dips below $2,000 by Sept 30? | Event: ethereum-dips-below-2000-by-sept-30-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.627926757196819e-06
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat West Ham? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-manchester-city | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 150 ... | no | 0 | grammys-record-of-the-year | Will 'Now and Then' win Record of the Year? | 64,538,336 | 64,538,336 |
4d45bd1dd3c4a4720190158a41373c1806548250 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x295170f503bf0fa77277382ccb73401470177f97625facbdfcd24116343b5bac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat West Ham? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-manchester-city | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150 or more times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Taylor Swift attend Chiefs game? | Event: will... | no | 0 | grammys-record-of-the-year | Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year? | 64,538,336 | 64,538,336 |
9fd53e4bef237078a2c578d355d174f3df0088cc | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x7b878d1acf800ff185e50fdcffe3c21359e3fa1abeca67d2055db22ac76159d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 150 or more times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Taylor Swift attend Chiefs game? | Event: will-taylor-swift-attend-chiefs-vs-ravnes | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00035363378457472247
3. Question: Favorite to win on P... | no | 0 | grammys-record-of-the-year | Will 'TEXAS HOLD 'EM' win Record of the Year? | 64,538,336 | 64,538,336 |
3a3bd7ed86d883f4795254e86b1d06d08065e12c | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xd2d2f2432fa978512d7dedbabb395ca5283123b5e7c239b80b994726996df2dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Taylor Swift attend Chiefs game? | Event: will-taylor-swift-attend-chiefs-vs-ravnes | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00035363378457472247
2. Question: Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate? | Event: favorite-to-win-on-polymarket-one-day-after-debate | Choice: kamala | Confidence: 0.... | no | 0 | grammys-record-of-the-year | Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Record of the Year? | 64,538,336 | 64,538,336 |
096e2fa33c9ca03a0c9d97f537344bfd51e16859 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xc97fc8853a46e7547c0d5208d89e02a0d1b7654c71edacdb98cee719ec140f10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate? | Event: favorite-to-win-on-polymarket-one-day-after-debate | Choice: kamala | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Team Liquid win The International 2024? | Event: dota-2-the-international-champions | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fact... | no | 0 | will-speed-sign-deal-to-fight-jake-paul-this-week | Will Speed sign deal to fight Jake Paul this week? | 64,538,336 | 65,577,847 |
d9e542a2a02670aa5ace4d0a1efbbc832b30bda9 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x54a1d0da9b18ac0dd1b1ae10fad2eb782427733e4ad2f14f190b979bbb5c7d65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Team Liquid win The International 2024? | Event: dota-2-the-international-champions | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fact Check: Suspect registered D or R? | Event: fact-check-suspect-registered-d-or-r | Choice: republican | Confidence: 0.00014446702155177462
3. Question: Fed ... | no | 0 | israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-in-2024 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? | 64,585,663 | 65,577,847 |
e93200ae044ffd3e33e9d1717abe7ce34f62783e | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x3dd328003f309c77e05dd99130ff396fce3f97bcb721163b33bfae1f5877e389 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fact Check: Suspect registered D or R? | Event: fact-check-suspect-registered-d-or-r | Choice: republican | Confidence: 0.00014446702155177462
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | who-will-jake-paul-fight-next | Will Jake Paul fight Jorge Masvidal next? | 70,936,661 | 70,936,661 |
40d6fa330831881a5456aeaa347a9c4aa516e8ab | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xd6bc7b4a6fc7ac7b053362dbee482ce4123dcc453a486ab40d58e3a7247c46dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5210898798973875
2. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 0-0.9 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confiden... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-trumps-attorney-general | Will Pam Bondi be Trump's Attorney General? | 70,936,661 | 70,936,661 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.