sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
b9270f55fb1e3e47831c487095335e2d5c2f5ea6 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xb14bbfde1f4fc2b37b16e0814f435e983fe971aa7a5f897693d828dba3fb6917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 0-0.9 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | us-gdp-growth-in-q1-2025 | Will U.S. GDP growth be between 2% and 1% in Q1 2025? | 71,052,501 | 71,052,501 |
f297253c39d43f45270a0cb563e669686bd2abf1 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xb93d06094398583af003c0f2b3319e4cf2f080fb1e304aadfccbc870600751e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: ESL Counter-Strike Quarterfinals: Spirit vs Natus Vincere | Event: esl-counter-strike-quarterfinals-spirit-vs-natus-vincere | Choice: sp... | yes | 1 | us-gdp-growth-in-q1-2025 | Will U.S. GDP growth be greater than 2% in Q1 2025? | 71,052,501 | 71,052,501 |
85ecd80bc398930bff8ac3d931d01f935c0dbdd2 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xcd28d79d6a97d2208f7c0f732537204cdfb6c57eb2d3c8c461e7477ba76b6ee5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: ESL Counter-Strike Quarterfinals: Spirit vs Natus Vincere | Event: esl-counter-strike-quarterfinals-spirit-vs-natus-vincere | Choice: spirit | Confidence: 0.2783998464207716
2. Question: Will there be less than 625 points scored NFL Week 3? | Event: nfl-week-3-how-many-points | Choice: no | C... | no | 0 | will-uefa-ban-or-suspend-israel | Will UEFA ban or suspend Israel by October 31? | 77,030,163 | 78,437,866 |
a9de0768549894c6020f79194dd4b1b326e94015 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0x2be0f44fb8acb8a1a3a8183c6047a96e9ebe6164addd1d59865f153df3d9400b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be less than 625 points scored NFL Week 3? | Event: nfl-week-3-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Team Vitality win ESL Counter-Strike Champion 2024? | Event: esl-counterstrike-champion-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Team Vitalit... | ence | 0 | cs2-hotu-ence-2025-09-30 | Counter-Strike: HOTU vs ENCE | 77,078,509 | 77,078,509 |
e834471d8ef5f055b73a7204e0ef0637f0d21255 | 0x3b9f26329bbd6f72231a0245a7337d404298d2b9 | 0xc5a129cb88ab5ca6f43a3b0e62ab8226ec57f58050139d68a1d54c935ed0a348 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Team Vitality win ESL Counter-Strike Champion 2024? | Event: esl-counterstrike-champion-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Team Vitality win ESL Counter-Strike Champion 2024? | Event: esl-counterstrike-champion-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Erli... | b8 | 1 | cs2-g2-b8-2025-09-30 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs B8 | 77,106,309 | 77,106,309 |
dc2589bf716afa4dd1e20fe10ecd64b04ad37dc0 | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0x614345d0823db9c8aea916fa53fd51f80843924e70ea4aaf894455ee63f1853a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad?
Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | 68,034,232 | 68,034,232 |
fc6fcb534872a43f530feaa65b3a84832de14fc1 | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0x30f3f69dd3c4d4cb5af0a4c047794ba1069499feadfdcd6fda6bfcd82f2812a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29?
Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: ... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | 68,034,343 | 68,034,343 |
d4fb2ca32e0eb50d473bd151dd3491762c14d9bb | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0x4de3757f9f11cc67701ed309f4d929b2e6dee4dada9a3332e42de995c6272edb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09?
Event... | no | 0.994961 | epl-wes-wol-2024-12-09 | Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | 68,034,424 | 68,034,424 |
fd8106570e73c377293e0a8dd28b9cfae4f6a5a7 | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0x7785dfed20fe67328816a3d7f4a2d7156641104c81d35a0337aba2b53f936a60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | yes | 1 | uel-maccabi-tlv-vs-porto | Will the match between Maccabi TLV and FC Porto end in a draw? | 68,034,558 | 68,034,558 |
98bbaf60a4043f094b9a0c085eec73f8cff441cc | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0x907f282b2f1a534afb7337f9d2bda4a2e08c1b7180ad5cf3c69945345716bc9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | no | 1 | ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-celtic | Will Celtic beat Dinamo Zagreb? | 68,034,617 | 68,034,617 |
4d61365ec288fc03109352b5d7abc32f73cc34e9 | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0xed8162dcbabc3653ddcf5cfc32129461c157a48c023e92b09c112aaf3029a9db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-lei-2025-01-04 | Will Leicester win on 2025-01-04? | 68,034,642 | 68,034,642 |
225e4f05d85b341f4167cb81a09fc6c5ce7eb0f2 | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0x1ada458458ab1772b74fcf7234ac4b8fea90277d1584d35aff485a1a6540d288 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | yes | 1 | epl-not-liv-2025-01-14 | Will Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | 68,034,657 | 68,034,657 |
67cd64a8f57576ed2a3bded5118a7bd75a672f13 | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0x2a2a1b786ba275d2c9efb6201ed053cd637b56873b1fc44f795c047a7fee5f17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-ars-2024-12-21 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-21? | 68,034,678 | 68,034,678 |
b475c8b7432e9ed29d9b3f60ccaff2068add4173 | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0x30bfdf43660b1f4f86e5ef5b08e47aa9ac0453fa539231f7747e3709c52d768d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | yes | 0.190476 | uel-union-st-gilloise-vs-braga | Will the match between Union St.-Gilloise and Braga end in a draw? | 68,034,697 | 68,034,697 |
1efc0b92cc2aad4353191c8dba731aa73358693d | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0x6880627d60c1c1b4831ff77628892550a1cba0166c0fe1f4af32e486487d499a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | yes | 0.999947 | epl-tot-che-2024-12-08 | Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-08? | 68,034,720 | 68,034,720 |
bb62cb143a9f9fafe288238dc7c0e9b8ab99da34 | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0x4e1255b094640fcf4d058506c42c31e3d6f33e9de619b6fa8d7856aad11b3065 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-bri-2025-01-19 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19? | 68,034,746 | 68,034,746 |
68a73c01135a318b394377eb5482d7cd6dfa45ec | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0xc12e5d5d6191fe0736638b45e4be9f7928437a0ac9a4ea6b2966635281a72112 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | no | 1 | uel-maccabi-tlv-vs-porto | Will Porto beat Maccabi TLV? | 68,034,782 | 68,034,782 |
91f2f7aa6ff88c65a33594c8ae06dab413b55144 | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0xe922b686ebf704b3e5ed74bc7a6e7a977def9cc0e52e900ed10fe5e7f6e54c44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | no | 1 | epl-bri-bre-2024-12-27 | Will Brighton win on 2024-12-27? | 68,034,794 | 68,034,794 |
c86878ebefb6e3b876813c1f41b0553f452570bb | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0xe73a8e4876da9f82d810dccf04ffe4684fd94368670b26b6b0fccb38c4e32f04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | no | 1 | epl-mac-che-2025-01-25 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-25? | 68,034,813 | 68,034,813 |
6ff7e775b2c5000c38971b8355f70916af2b3523 | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0xf2eb7ab1ad576425c979cac0bfa1e370f6bf8dd2b03681733fa21dc38a778c90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | yes | 1 | ucl-liverpool-vs-lille | Will Lille beat Liverpool? | 68,034,840 | 68,034,840 |
5246f79373d2e6122760b22eddd818c8f0b03760 | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0x8e637d4f7aecdcdfa95470e8c24c02d27152e3253cb5e676675f27178f570313 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | no | 1 | ucl-stuttgart-vs-young-boys | Will Stuttgart beat Young Boys? | 68,034,881 | 68,034,881 |
37b56600a2a9942253f41127154ce4130772ef24 | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0xca201a739c73b7d8ea37afc529284cd0f8e76408b95febc598d0d3b6433a6409 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | yes | 1 | ucl-feyenoord-vs-sparta-praha | Will Feyenoord beat Sparta Praha? | 68,034,943 | 68,034,943 |
b06d731f822d6cf9c552484878a4f20a9172156d | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0x930d8fa3edf9f3291e7b0fcf98d311ec8014c74f443310c5f5d9b112b1e7729d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | no | 1 | epl-eve-not-2024-12-29 | Will Everton vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | 68,035,016 | 68,035,016 |
8cfffcee3cb2f5ed7af78e37c11f1b172bd5231e | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0xa7626742762a8b0122b8127c2927da0611cd659134e79dea498d5cc55925b606 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | yes | 1 | serie-a-lazio-vs-napoli | Will the match between Lazio and Napoli end in a draw? | 68,035,039 | 68,035,039 |
70a0ea658c0b32826a07790e291b11bf09625f3c | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0xef3c1e6e027005f2254823c89d7d0274a5970b34f60d048646db51436be27706 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | yes | 0.747855 | epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-14? | 68,035,060 | 68,035,432 |
122b1f9f38c75cebb480c57d170f026f886a5a7e | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0xe6539776e427bc9273ada6cf3c034b0597772749c55f84ff235fe72786167433 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | no | 0.943038 | europa-league-fenerbahce-vs-athletic-bilbao | Will Athletic Bilbao beat Fenerbahce? | 68,035,095 | 68,035,095 |
28970ef9f486053d2191a3980fe7e048a3a64f2d | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0x5a58f3d37b1c66e69717674ddec325cd214bd5c15d855560f80cfd3a6f9488da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | yes | 1 | epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Will Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? | 68,035,111 | 68,035,111 |
08a855afbc2c01909b4f52d92cea903f09d6de74 | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0xae08b0027bb1fb50c112e72da476cf4356989fe281e97930a8ee62236268ffe4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | yes | 1 | ucl-barcelona-vs-atalanta | Will Atalanta beat Barcelona? | 68,035,133 | 68,035,133 |
53b4d95b221ae8b73e41e47868db2a9126d448dd | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0xd4c74fa0fee603e6531afacf1d9f5282a26f314aefb73a2efdac7808b6091c74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | yes | 1 | ucl-atletico-madrid-vs-slovan-bratislava | Will Slovan Bratislava beat Atletico Madrid? | 68,035,155 | 68,035,155 |
5e162a5f3b1002471e563ac48e4f5c33ad1a1755 | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0xea80a105bb7eac5de4705be8bbea81a9457d0b7ceb72fc78c9e7cc8c08dec150 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | yes | 1 | uel-slavia-praha-vs-malmo-ff | Will Slavia Praha beat Malmo FF? | 68,035,168 | 68,035,168 |
d2c093a31fed65f02029ea7256c1b65d83e884db | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0x5d7cc1c13d03369260b8c10c29cfedf2b179280f84fd60c23a68e804f03efe87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-bri-2024-12-21 | Will West Ham win on 2024-12-21? | 68,035,195 | 68,035,195 |
4272c74221e134f0503df1c5de058450afd8b534 | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0xcab94731cfcdc78cbba150723ecbed922bf317db497cdcaf2b402329caf51b28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | no | 1 | ucl-atalanta-vs-real-madrid | Will Real Madrid beat Atalanta? | 68,035,217 | 68,035,217 |
9b7a25d6b771a0c7256f7e8977280d420dac7e65 | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0x25d8738023a69024fb79cb3fea0143fffbf0e71a8f2cf2800ed105ab7e9a75f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | yes | 1 | ucl-liverpool-vs-lille | Will the match between Liverpool and Lille end in a draw? | 68,035,253 | 68,035,253 |
460a25c51fb03ac6063e4fa5c030143908ee68da | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0xff2c40b8240df861c52952e645fb6871ea9219b5a4a5c285d26f43e9a5e9bcc4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | no | 1 | epl-wes-bri-2024-12-21 | Will West Ham vs. Brighton end in a draw? | 68,035,272 | 68,035,272 |
1f8b9ef9d2cb6ce7b650cc65f399a925ecbbf2bb | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0x97bcff41aaecd56e82e1fb63043683e1122979c032a2723531e8985317470c64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | yes | 0.990971 | europa-league-fenerbahce-vs-athletic-bilbao | Will Fenerbahce beat Athletic Bilbao? | 68,035,295 | 68,035,295 |
085df3307427e10598d7e7dbf9fcad494b849c3a | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0xb924de9213eb8863056c47e6ac990ddcc0c837f8c68072957b85c09a5886f137 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-w... | no | 1 | serie-a-lazio-vs-napoli | Will Napoli beat Lazio? | 68,035,313 | 68,035,313 |
885f6242956999edebbda72f43e7b08788169325 | 0x3bb86575c5cf7efd931613fccc7f5d4e93757471 | 0xd1b9228515068d3864e84c634772ad51566632e94c82077f940707e2640f834c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-wol-2024-12-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9949607291980458
3. Question: Will the match between Maccabi TLV and FC Porto end in a... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-wol-2024-12-04 | Will Wolves win on 2024-12-04? | 68,035,334 | 68,035,334 |
09989fde032d55bb86def3d1677747474f934d2e | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0x079fd5cd4c762657700526c9c8066445c71be8277ff4978662905dcb3b9fda58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII?
Event: super-bowl-winner-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | super-bowl-winner-2024 | Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | 53,423,621 | 53,423,621 |
8fe8b9981a98a32322703bca8224725ae66455d8 | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0x723cb07a5d1f079f56499f2e2e8a278c4d3607e952d040047fef41e7f98cc5ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"?
Event: super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show
Predic... | yes | 1 | super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"? | 53,423,621 | 53,423,621 |
1044b7182225d3bd9355c9f4f459d49f06c4693c | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0xf48df84e093bf9c909ac308ace75eb3aa1034724a2c3f1b2e54b5a377ddf40e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"? | Event: super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "My Way"? | 53,423,621 | 53,423,621 |
e5d61e7f0ebf10f93ed0432d61665aa0a1d68887 | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0x5e684c9ddd4296b75d70963288a464bebdb35861b4a8eb8e33191e68024b5c25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"? | Event: super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | super-bowl-gatorade-color | No Gatorade shower at Super Bowl 58? | 53,431,173 | 53,431,173 |
53c0baae74db4b78287ec84bd177ff62cd0e8028 | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0x98841d5d46f3409d433fd1ea0e3261736424b0733cca1e256e6223036c121072 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"? | Event: super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | how-many-inches-of-snow-in-nyc-on-tuesday | Will NYC have more than 7.5 inches of snowfall on Tuesday? | 53,548,371 | 53,548,371 |
1725e096a81c47a948a83058f5845da8ccecb8b2 | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0xcd6a6e29d94461e75421d013bd9f84556e0cc463fe4de071ea72bc6e796b64f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"? | Event: super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | super-tuesday-state-with-highest-trump-margin-of-victory | Will Maine have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries? | 54,374,589 | 54,374,589 |
328408eef2dfdaefdcf88012586db21e94adf3a8 | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0xefee356c98f6352092cd3a837d9cef9ab003fd28e4339c5f6ba10237ddb12c51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"? | Event: super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | super-tuesday-state-with-highest-trump-margin-of-victory | Will Alabama have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries? | 54,460,886 | 54,460,886 |
f81169e81dfed3f006e6e871a8957c4f24e3d733 | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0xc6ea348dce1867d63836bf12bde5b46acd0b9af0713db61f104ffaf9b6402e88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"? | Event: super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | oscars-2024-best-actor | Will Cillian Murphy win the Oscar for Best Actor? | 54,520,272 | 54,520,272 |
5cd347fe0618ef0e79596e9026939fe78b6f69e4 | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0x0c916dfc42ac1419f66f48bbc982e0f14b853165c3b5bd19cca8de2306403486 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"? | Event: super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | ghostbusters-frozen-empire-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' gross between $45m-50m opening weekend? | 55,126,656 | 55,126,656 |
60f7a4715d03c8f3b157ef89e1dcce9a07e1b259 | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0x45a9d3ec242a8c08da50b72a8f37b19765ce7cae9394f3d008b623396706b9bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"? | Event: super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | psg-vs-borussia-dortmund-ucl-semis-1st-leg | Will PSG win? | 56,485,244 | 56,485,244 |
97f62195d27fd43425144c4abfa25f125e228b8f | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0xc11237a3f35414171fbeb981774295335205d1bc19365b87d1828c235335e977 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"? | Event: super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | bayern-munich-vs-real-madrid-ucl-semis-1st-leg | Will Bayern Munich win? | 56,485,244 | 56,485,244 |
15a85f10ae4fa97d35d8f3c0bd3fab1554b46c16 | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0x535c518af31ff5a7d9fa7473fe9c41703d127aaeeccd2c98d2f5f08cdd22e422 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"? | Event: super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | champions-league-winner-2024 | Will Bayern win the 2023-24 Champions League? | 56,809,833 | 56,809,833 |
34e0465e1f1927f11020e988798c2fa83f716fdf | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0xd77154fd20b95b96463bf2b9e7139aefaa92d777400b88aaa6e13299616dec21 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"? | Event: super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | premier-league-top-scorer | Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL | 57,273,536 | 57,273,536 |
2d7e397334837eec2d092fed27a738c6db7167d7 | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0x8135ad22a812be03ef25e492879c2c0542a7bc6377373154bf7e56bb06bb0797 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"? | Event: super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | europa-league-winner | Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Europa League? | 57,291,663 | 57,291,663 |
cb6cba21a0f7b52e72dfa82b70d436d262e4fb0b | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0x9ae93cb6f8ef41fed3cd23404a3fe054f87623ed0545ce0119ebda795508ae64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"? | Event: super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | euro-2024-albania-vs-spain | Will Albania win? | 58,604,609 | 58,604,609 |
5847267988564a7696d24c75b01bbf64afe38ad4 | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0x3cde4dc6946ec2e69bd8bd377745c983264bc598910191e439a32a224bb8469b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"? | Event: super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | euro-2024-ukraine-vs-belgium | Will Ukraine win? | 58,711,583 | 58,711,583 |
71d0ac8966744c8500901b7284074a021b5364c8 | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0xb4b857ec5062d633f3d19dca5c1a1c06518f3e0d0de212c3fbb78e486f235a3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"? | Event: super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-group-e-winner | Will Belgium win Group E? | 58,711,583 | 58,711,583 |
727e26ac4a55d2f59dce648d55ff558ea6438d78 | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0x90dbcd0cf65fd0190bd463f4f429b5df2df51d6c916e350a4ed014d94b988935 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"? | Event: super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | euro-2024-winner | Will England win the 2024 Euros? | 59,374,322 | 59,374,322 |
8100eac7dd2b7f4171ccadd3c7f5dc0f27cb87e4 | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0xa0a04d3947d7b66c606c57462b2ed57e09d5b00c635372bcb3a8f96543094c99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"? | Event: super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | euro-2024-top-scorer | Will Harry Kane be Euro 2024 top scorer? | 59,374,322 | 59,374,322 |
f09fd53781fbcb7edafb5507a1488f75cbac84e9 | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0x75a9197a2d8562d9af4ed0416c31310be044977b50f39245999195ae56923c0a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"? | Event: super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | tour-de-france-winner | Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2024 Tour de France? | 60,217,356 | 60,217,356 |
fdb888e231e897f6689712d614f669177a5502b9 | 0x3bda7a8966690c19cb27a23c85a3050d035a9f1f | 0x2bf1b0179d6a9a5860bbfe2f6e940a4bfe5098b40dd6841d0868c911249f591f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"? | Event: super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | epl-chelsea-vs-crystal-palace | Will Crystal Palace beat Chelsea? | 61,545,265 | 61,545,265 |
36420bf8cd9f82ace16384bd3e5b5da7445989f9 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x2fc2ec3e5f058f9c017635a11d8c34461fb4037b1bc23ad1489d176938ac910e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10?
Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | 77,555,608 | 77,555,608 |
240258dac5b4bef603d7712e8a571a6a61716bee | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x9e49f97c3b3990497cfa0037487bb83b13148fea5c6300931aeb0fe269b624c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw?
Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., ... | yes | 1 | uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | 77,555,613 | 77,555,613 |
5480e60e58ee04e87c1127439c608e8e98604b10 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xab54e0e177d60a542c1276973ceb7c42af530ea0fe78bbe3c7953714eb87d1a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10?
Event: uef-kvx-slv-20... | no | 1 | uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | 77,555,636 | 77,555,636 |
36087cf8332e15aca0c7bb743bacfa58e3a6411a | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x229f4a3b7a0ad7d61f384f951b18320f1f6c1ae978978dfcdeabd48d9fbd29b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | 77,555,651 | 77,555,651 |
da333d07ffa2be2340f89f9ab8e67cd0414b6d44 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xb520189b3486369aa8736e5dbff3bbc49f8164e4bf04edf5539b718919a8a895 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | yes | 1 | uef-far-mon-2025-10-09 | Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-10-09? | 77,555,674 | 77,555,674 |
2e52b6f33fa1b34658b1f35d9e3bb56b69e27b51 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x9ed25421537001447ded88ece6763cbde33062a3c9da89e59f970602a19630b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | uef-lat-and-2025-10-11 | Will Latvia win on 2025-10-11? | 77,555,692 | 77,555,692 |
2c8fe6b18cff04651395dca2990253822410040e | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xf2a6e28bebff7f035d750430da4f0972f33aa3eee1b37a564314a8bd2bd893cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Will CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Tigre end in a draw? | 77,555,730 | 77,555,730 |
93d87aa3ae22dda99b6b19b44cf648958948217c | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xb755e32850241a6fe9f2be4f87291ed70c33a061c4f5c360c71f942c3e03723e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | uef-bel-mac-2025-10-10 | Will Belgium vs. North Macedonia end in a draw? | 77,555,752 | 77,555,752 |
a6900179e37a337af3610eb6889bc7b980c6a10a | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x50622da45a3974b253d8796ac5b6d8916255829b3331e08c6c161980b8a2d092 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | fif-ury-dom-2025-10-10 | Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-10? | 77,555,790 | 77,555,790 |
738e416d309a3d99219025c8b9104ab29761b281 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xfcdf321f6d9e6a4b1082a82a498e795a549ae8203dfad9863316b7c514a03bee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | fif-can-aus-2025-10-10 | Will Australia win on 2025-10-10? | 77,555,797 | 77,555,797 |
dbff5c78abaf39324f9890165d231d25e64b9131 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xa4d397d0ee7eff07014ef71ef7bc56e3a6981bfdceee726f48d1f76a4787a1dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | yes | 1 | uef-fin-lit-2025-10-09 | Will Lithuania win on 2025-10-09? | 77,555,807 | 77,555,807 |
2bd207893551486446f1db52ff54929661b44dba | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x2ed15c7e82e248ad13a4e432c51512540117ecef2c56511c9e901ccfc06c7eef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | yes | 1 | efa-slo-enf1-2025-10-11 | Will Slough Town FC win on 2025-10-11? | 77,576,244 | 77,576,244 |
4fb9e2437e699561a9f09443e8d94557492e2890 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x389d3c564fe9c865e379c60acb1e172d9545e54db9ef49cad5bbaa8b3f223d0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | uef-bel-mac-2025-10-10 | Will Belgium win on 2025-10-10? | 77,576,254 | 77,576,254 |
3da1223d011ed01f40bf8f805d6e5c7164e06229 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x86e78dd25a692be0a4219f8505a1cfa855fa4082abf98cd1e5c296c307995382 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | efa-hem-yeo-2025-10-11 | Will Yeovil Town FC win on 2025-10-11? | 77,576,281 | 77,576,281 |
91294735cf0de44033181320c612cd3b265c595f | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x5219a79c53d3ccdb52a5983fac122c4d47fa114ba572a6f3663f59456dbe5f36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | efa-alt-har-2025-10-11 | Will Harborough Town FC win on 2025-10-11? | 77,576,429 | 77,576,429 |
51f09f9b3c17b6c7ba2dbf4371bae3e26d059b74 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x62885aecf30c05bb37e6cd1acde7b15fa7e82053a9b66a716c11c204d6b75527 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | efa-ban1-alb1-2025-10-11 | Will Banbury United FC vs. St Albans City FC end in a draw? | 77,576,467 | 77,576,467 |
ba7fca44329adbe46da30861f811520c84c12253 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x76f13a67d652d3c74b0344863baf08960a5cb0de5498ba8c804c516ab9070d3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | yes | 1 | efa-dor1-ald-2025-10-11 | Will Dorking Wanderers FC win on 2025-10-11? | 77,576,480 | 77,576,480 |
e505b14e720e7104fc995266f7fc46703b51ad8e | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xb165233108aefea62b9cd01992b8fe2cf0dfce1315bacc748c6fd366394c78be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | uef-isl-ukr-2025-10-10 | Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-10? | 77,576,490 | 77,576,490 |
b2082bec1baf66fbdf3d7cb5100f3ee27e3fdcf9 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xfc81507c3c8e3a7ab16e24528126eebae33eb1a293f22f030d6387f362ad40e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | efa-run-bux-2025-10-11 | Will Buxton FC win on 2025-10-11? | 77,576,498 | 77,576,498 |
b035b196d793431d364b76784aa620780948dfd2 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x707d8cb138a377915dcbec8854a99b4c2817e077ffa02f7a7294f57db384d31e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | yes | 1 | efa-alt-har-2025-10-11 | Will Altrincham FC win on 2025-10-11? | 77,576,510 | 77,576,510 |
40b8304a8f3e71542fbb2f7d05e23fa7bf99e7e4 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x79d7229b8e9464ec286a5092d17326aae42dadfd88f794f6ab64d8d9da8d6c49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | efa-che2-chi2-2025-10-11 | Will Chelmsford City FC win on 2025-10-11? | 77,576,521 | 77,576,521 |
c6169846524773e815dc83c5047353f647fd4b82 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xd2bd058d786afc205147c7227bb59b5b04ddba444244a0e6d246d8fa416c130c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | uef-bul-tur-2025-10-11 | Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-11? | 77,576,530 | 77,576,530 |
59c953be2aa90b5108bd1b6cf9216b451bef960e | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x21a802a328b74409ef3002d362a2bc236630d82e68024b1096261755bc94ce6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | fif-pol-nzl-2025-10-09 | Will Poland win on 2025-10-09? | 77,576,550 | 77,576,550 |
0c16ace1d622462704aa8973d2d42924a8dcfb2d | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xc58b5695c856f663094fb4e70b42c9b8a2644c5934b6b0e30c8dec0d22735923 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | efa-dor1-ald-2025-10-11 | Will Aldershot Town FC win on 2025-10-11? | 77,576,555 | 77,576,555 |
e5e2a9a5cc15552df1590b6ed29b297b7c830242 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x9825f7716c38f9b2e7e15432e1c1ad2bb1bb5f254a668d09336b91ddd0659e3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | 77,576,569 | 77,576,569 |
f5508f40345c91c625d375f44acb6946d6ba5dec | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xbfe3d61a255a80d0303dff74eb074297c0ac1f2d4bb2f0b4296772d7e7e98232 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Will CA River Plate win on 2025-10-12? | 77,626,269 | 77,626,269 |
d8e64c0df175826a9d1ef22151e59c2ea70c74d8 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xdbb4051ccbc31c22fbdf091105861707f6446d1be36ca8769c2503370f6b099d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | yes | 0.432911 | caf-stp-mal-2025-10-13 | Will São Tomé e Príncipe win on 2025-10-13? | 77,637,882 | 77,637,882 |
d994b09d35d1b2e63eb576e4ece77e7283c7ea83 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x081e887bbe7505e10aa7dc7e49b9f80da9d082dc67d7165672cadc19a0b8db8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | caf-zam-nig-2025-10-12 | Will Zambia vs. Niger end in a draw? | 77,664,632 | 77,664,632 |
8881c0923a89b7297c5cc731a35dc2a3966f58a3 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xa565e148bfe6194f07b4f00c0ff922ee74836a27e36de009aa420a67d3881f23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | uef-swe-kvx-2025-10-13 | Will Sweden vs. Kosovo end in a draw? | 77,664,654 | 77,664,654 |
cf8dfbd0595e466bce63a312b028580f03542969 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x1f2b1d2cbbd09e4118a370fd9a39b6ee60f85369b4abc62120aaee3ab3c4d5d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | uef-far-cze-2025-10-12 | Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-10-12? | 77,714,513 | 77,714,513 |
32773cfea8a3656f642ecc0876b4503e30346cb7 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x5332b269dc5cd6f35a25f39d1ba7b2d7792d39e39572498b89b2ab4af9a14aea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | ... | no | 1 | uef-ukr-aze-2025-10-13 | Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-13? | 77,714,531 | 77,714,531 |
d027c2da5b65f5f6321bdfd2ef820b21badc1903 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xa355620472a90d80e9920cfe767c0f9ab2c464843cb773031ed568946e7323b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kosovo vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2... | dodgers | 1 | mlb-mil-lad-2025-10-16 | Brewers vs. Dodgers | 77,807,549 | 77,807,549 |
ee76f5cf5f0b8e775a3bd92282fec369d7e90fe3 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xf41aef905326d834c0dabb4f3771010d289a9d66792944581c3346bd6a923c5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-far-mon-2025... | no | 1 | bra-gre-sao-2025-10-16 | Will Grêmio FBPA vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? | 77,807,585 | 77,807,585 |
98fdffd6f55a8a09a0232877eaee04d514c95abe | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x77927e301fed9124438e246f70ecd4a3160ad0aa7ea5fc091bd1bd1211d46be4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-far-mon-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Latvia win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-lat-and-2025-... | yes | 1 | uef-smr-cyp-2025-10-12 | Will San Marino win on 2025-10-12? | 77,807,796 | 77,807,796 |
ea26548fcda4631f44c4d0c19886bc021de08e08 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x0232d9789fad275889803816a0db229c56a25ae6af416c45612165b499c7ecc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-far-mon-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Latvia win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-lat-and-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Tigre end in a draw? | Event: arg-new-... | no | 1 | uef-lit-pol-2025-10-12 | Will Poland win on 2025-10-12? | 77,810,604 | 77,810,604 |
bd7ee59ed0220a4b87ac39dae4c84ae33d514650 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xfa8e29ffe247cdb51d6ecdd549592e137928f55b87e33c47bc23e91aafcbf035 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Latvia win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-lat-and-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Tigre end in a draw? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium vs. North Macedonia end in a draw? | Event:... | yes | 1 | efa-run-bux-2025-10-11 | Will Runcorn Linnets FC vs. Buxton FC end in a draw? | 77,810,624 | 77,810,624 |
1cd2beebcd40415b4d2762a8266651dac4aa102b | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x75c1ffa92c0bf7eb88b2a459a6e7946120678f38e998be04e93958bb3eb66cdb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Tigre end in a draw? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Belgium vs. North Macedonia end in a draw? | Event: uef-bel-mac-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-10? | Event... | no | 1 | fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | 77,810,714 | 77,810,714 |
8581e28c8e8e8ffd0f294029ba6e0883e1f5e859 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xd0d6e09d9bf985fe816f6430087c3584b4dd25d6deba396363335872fe7203ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium vs. North Macedonia end in a draw? | Event: uef-bel-mac-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-10? | Event: fif-ury-dom-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: fif-can-aus-2025-1... | kings | 1 | nba-lac-sac-2025-10-15 | Clippers vs. Kings | 77,810,724 | 77,810,724 |
a97b17aa643e69c7d0bcd2afde716cc13fec85bc | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x9a6e86a53148ec9cf0374b3432a99264e0b298b770d19510e3d63ca8a31ca7bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-10? | Event: fif-ury-dom-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: fif-can-aus-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lithuania win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-fin-lit-2025-10-09 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | bun-wol-stu-2025-10-18 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-18? | 77,854,663 | 77,854,663 |
a4c2c1f8d8361394cd0757514a4ff3c3f623e6bb | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xc89d563cf0f773ca00205d78f850d4ad2f9f93911c62bad2aae6e408e081a965 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: fif-can-aus-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lithuania win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-fin-lit-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slough Town FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-slo-enf1-2025-10-11 ... | lsu | 1 | cfb-lsu-vand-2025-10-18 | LSU vs. Vanderbilt | 77,878,461 | 77,878,461 |
196f78cc35914cb98d00f231c3c2ea35368eb459 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x900b802a79a5f0c3d9ccdd9948871d2e0ba3c41214566e8c961972b0642ebce8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lithuania win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-fin-lit-2025-10-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slough Town FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-slo-enf1-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-bel-mac-2025-10-10 |... | yes | 1 | fl1-nan-lil-2025-10-19 | Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-19? | 77,938,353 | 77,938,353 |
37ab7385d3f43faccb0560f60ed69d2a42df3a94 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x167a90f6800ad2ef3c02d3205406929b7abeebdd3965cf3fa0944b2aea747d01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Slough Town FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-slo-enf1-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Belgium win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-bel-mac-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Yeovil Town FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-hem-yeo-2025-10-... | no | 1 | bun-fre-ein-2025-10-19 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-10-19? | 77,938,379 | 77,938,379 |
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