sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4247a6beb165aabcce75d4665ac3f8fd6384b36f | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xd761bd40fc99f6703b76c18ad67c410eebeaa46ad32d584f11c46954c0d92e05 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-bel-mac-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Yeovil Town FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-hem-yeo-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Harborough Town FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-alt-har-2025-1... | no | 1 | epl-sun-wol-2025-10-18 | Will Sunderland AFC vs. Wolves end in a draw? | 77,938,423 | 77,938,423 |
12cdd48872ec91485257710e3fd00f73d7fe9951 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xd48d5927685519378d2fe2fa62a24b3682ff7595dacd4439df109abff3b0c667 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Yeovil Town FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-hem-yeo-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Harborough Town FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-alt-har-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Banbury United FC vs. St Albans City FC end in a draw?... | no | 1 | ucl-ath-qar-2025-10-22 | Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-10-22? | 78,089,492 | 78,089,492 |
763524b2345a58eb87c4fc29111ff6365cf9a762 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x5360ce1c34586ac2157d4a2fe490c967be42e4ec66d2a0d0bfdf74a2a4ecd765 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harborough Town FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-alt-har-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Banbury United FC vs. St Albans City FC end in a draw? | Event: efa-ban1-alb1-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dorking Wanderers FC win on 202... | no | 1 | ucl-spo-olm-2025-10-22 | Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-10-22? | 78,090,615 | 78,090,615 |
e84fd1658d508444190f564fac4bf474652d700d | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xa56e1fe57a12896eba18552998ac4d11dbb7a2b2b1f986e3fcc29f9eee4c3292 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Banbury United FC vs. St Albans City FC end in a draw? | Event: efa-ban1-alb1-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dorking Wanderers FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-dor1-ald-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-10? ... | no | 1 | epl-bri-new-2025-10-18 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-10-18? | 78,101,525 | 78,101,525 |
5c1f8b23af8103ed7afcf48614a031b6fb3df19a | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xd209559f9d39c239c7d8e46b929ff6affbab2e892bb0dc3b2ddcbb9d10c1c696 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dorking Wanderers FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-dor1-ald-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-isl-ukr-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Buxton FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-run-bux-2025-10... | no | 1 | tur-kar-kay-2025-10-24 | Will Fatih Karagümrük SK win on 2025-10-24? | 78,160,118 | 78,160,118 |
4e111cbe849c6be22f5df7b0d7e184d405d43aae | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x2c786f3a82f79980c7621fa2e6b463198edb080d3ac6360ce069395d110ece34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-isl-ukr-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Buxton FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-run-bux-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Altrincham FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-alt-har-2025-10-11 | Cho... | no | 1 | sea-mil-pis-2025-10-24 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-24? | 78,160,127 | 78,160,127 |
95600c5104c465bcadf22e917fd73beb629e04bb | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x99e3093706de6d738f6ed2f4db939558002f6cf5914226ccfccdedbfd6c93d03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Buxton FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-run-bux-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Altrincham FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-alt-har-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelmsford City FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-che2-chi2-20... | no | 1 | epl-lee-wes-2025-10-24 | Will Leeds United vs. West Ham end in a draw? | 78,160,137 | 78,160,137 |
c975c82a1c55a97b4060666a921e5508e3b385bf | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x4ef333e095c56a526961ce18346890063f2d3f69cd5e9bc506dcad23ae33a6b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Altrincham FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-alt-har-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelmsford City FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-che2-chi2-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-bul-tur-2025... | no | 1 | elc-pne-she-2025-10-24 | Will Sheffield United FC win on 2025-10-24? | 78,160,181 | 78,160,181 |
d5ab0cc00b7bd1ea15b6b63f4fc728936dca2c94 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x4cef0ac44f4a10a958b3f676ce945a0ffe1b16d0e7eac0abcf432bce7b99ea77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelmsford City FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-che2-chi2-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-bul-tur-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Poland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: fif-pol-nzl-2025-10-09 |... | no | 1 | epl-bre-liv-2025-10-25 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? | 78,292,867 | 78,292,867 |
79aa84707761c2b15a49684da73cd9d873f4b139 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x32f99548d831beb65fc38bdcf55f8420b72edfe4309f6853c4070ee912c95146 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-bul-tur-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Poland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: fif-pol-nzl-2025-10-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aldershot Town FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-dor1-ald-2025-10-11 | C... | no | 1 | epl-liv-mun-2025-10-19 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19? | 78,292,908 | 78,292,908 |
a5a94bef49f791b61241c44d82dea5dc3e2c6fff | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x5846db288826e528aea2b9c1d8acecffa807b79fd49d9031d1ed2e75594872f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Poland win on 2025-10-09? | Event: fif-pol-nzl-2025-10-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aldershot Town FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-dor1-ald-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Cho... | no | 1 | epl-mun-bri-2025-10-25 | Will Manchester United vs. Brighton end in a draw? | 78,292,914 | 78,292,914 |
49a5594345f28355eeffb655bd0a19f4c0a17053 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xbaf54dd94a1cb36eaaed124954ff71e45874b408aab33b81da96d52239c22be1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aldershot Town FC win on 2025-10-11? | Event: efa-dor1-ald-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA River Plate win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-... | yes | 1 | bra-san-vit-2025-10-20 | Will EC Vitória win on 2025-10-20? | 78,292,938 | 78,292,938 |
ebfc8d732898dccd16c587168dea05be756edad6 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x9ba7b558eae7d4b90084531e0d27ec391fea0eea07b7e6a919743fb1db95302c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA River Plate win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will São Tomé e Príncipe win on 2025-10-13? | Event: caf-stp-mal-2025-10... | no | 1 | spl-dam-fat-2025-10-30 | Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2025-10-30? | 78,398,017 | 78,398,017 |
f28f748aceaf5348e6b07f317fe385e0a6b67413 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x7f239d8c0ed1f6298e49fff041993eed1a07499d7a630ca38f2085996a8e5f6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA River Plate win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will São Tomé e Príncipe win on 2025-10-13? | Event: caf-stp-mal-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.43291098317838556
3. Question: Will Zambia vs. Niger end in a draw? | Ev... | yes | 1 | arg-new-uni-2025-10-31 | Will CA Unión win on 2025-10-31? | 78,447,192 | 78,447,192 |
dead45e4eafc0f1ab65f7700d3791ecb54a6dedd | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x98dc91397709b89c10b5102955e3e7cfba449cc7c76c6e68db9245e9c8ccf72b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will São Tomé e Príncipe win on 2025-10-13? | Event: caf-stp-mal-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.43291098317838556
2. Question: Will Zambia vs. Niger end in a draw? | Event: caf-zam-nig-2025-10-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sweden vs. Kosovo end in a draw? | Eve... | no | 1 | chi-ron-hen-2025-10-31 | Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Henan FC end in a draw? | 78,447,204 | 78,447,204 |
dc253298bf9bdcfeefb97fdc44b94eaff06458a2 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xfce0a172fadb08c2e57bc2e5884b1d88a02e6c053c76dae79e360b558e4e487c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zambia vs. Niger end in a draw? | Event: caf-zam-nig-2025-10-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sweden vs. Kosovo end in a draw? | Event: uef-swe-kvx-2025-10-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-far-cze-2025-10... | no | 1 | elc-wre-cov-2025-10-31 | Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-10-31? | 78,447,210 | 78,447,210 |
e30b8fb3849975c43e2a7fcb2ad6aa2b59b61a5f | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xd690b24625f8c944b968b1691d6c84e02b4d4078efecc83740455d83bce6345d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sweden vs. Kosovo end in a draw? | Event: uef-swe-kvx-2025-10-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-far-cze-2025-10-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-ukr-aze-2025-10-13 |... | no | 1 | spl-ahl-riy-2025-10-30 | Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2025-10-30? | 78,447,222 | 78,447,222 |
0829800ad45c23a60196efa96baa32f2e0763d43 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xdd605332d181ef8cd7dac76d428e66c848e2256dd6fd95bac8e180926aaab0a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-far-cze-2025-10-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-ukr-aze-2025-10-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Dodgers | Event: mlb-mil-lad-2025-10-16 | Choice: dodgers |... | no | 1 | sea-pis-laz-2025-10-30 | Will Lazio win on 2025-10-30? | 78,447,234 | 78,447,234 |
c57cadab03aa3a8792022cc80a8df2840738c505 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x2a62d7f4e2154da708e07463a4aa22b168d10afe548ed81236cd77e39c843b7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-ukr-aze-2025-10-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Brewers vs. Dodgers | Event: mlb-mil-lad-2025-10-16 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Grêmio FBPA vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? | Event: bra-gre-sao-2025-10-16 | C... | no | 1 | chi-ron-hen-2025-10-31 | Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | 78,447,240 | 78,447,240 |
9fd350d11a2547d450ae665f6e8e387e4ec0b0e5 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0xef5270e0218c033126a01f2ced8d6794ab02fe6906dca63837fe3d1c415c5393 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Brewers vs. Dodgers | Event: mlb-mil-lad-2025-10-16 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grêmio FBPA vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? | Event: bra-gre-sao-2025-10-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will San Marino win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-smr-cyp-2025-10-12 ... | yes | 1 | elc-qpr-ips-2025-11-01 | Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,526,576 | 78,526,576 |
b9611582d4d8325395cdc6557eacf9b28d2fc36e | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x96634633577ebc7500136dee2136f35454824deb4e74f8a116a707d83bc1f8d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Grêmio FBPA vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? | Event: bra-gre-sao-2025-10-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will San Marino win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-smr-cyp-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Poland win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-lit-pol-2025... | no | 1 | bun-lei-stu-2025-11-01 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-01? | 78,526,582 | 78,526,582 |
ad1892aa39e28019c8338b3a37f313a9bfce7524 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x5a6e6f8119b51b7d79ffa87f960aef66e908ae82946f60f4bf71cf8ae05a3a6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will San Marino win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-smr-cyp-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Poland win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-lit-pol-2025-10-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Runcorn Linnets FC vs. Buxton FC end in a draw? | Event: efa-run-bux-... | yes | 1 | fl1-asm-pfc-2025-11-01 | Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,526,588 | 78,526,588 |
1b7aeaf6385805c648706afaf258df99e39d1fb7 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x99c5225af440485a23b0cebf5be006dd49ce08ad96d89f1e2616a0fff0da1946 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Poland win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-lit-pol-2025-10-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Runcorn Linnets FC vs. Buxton FC end in a draw? | Event: efa-run-bux-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-202... | no | 1 | uel-bet1-lyo1-2025-11-06 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-11-06? | 78,746,716 | 78,746,716 |
bd11246dbbb4ff2d9e4b8cd4852ccc320bad21ce | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x91fc51124bebc25212e0b11acea0387be7764476f3f6d957d114b4cbeb82e3da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Runcorn Linnets FC vs. Buxton FC end in a draw? | Event: efa-run-bux-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Clippers vs. Kings | Event: nba-lac-sac-2025-10-15 | Ch... | no | 1 | bun-uni-bay-2025-11-08 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-08? | 78,813,536 | 78,813,536 |
2f68182a1f2fdfa6f2364810e58f9c5fea1d6a39 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x7463f9473af4aae11da78f94dd46097ebde20267764b4a02fefa04b92f517833 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Clippers vs. Kings | Event: nba-lac-sac-2025-10-15 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-18? | Event: bun-wol-stu-2025-10-18 | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-bur-2025-11-08 | Will West Ham win on 2025-11-08? | 78,813,541 | 78,813,541 |
b2611df87cd04d42d759e3844fbe229f8ef0021f | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x60f354d2969d4f84733b2d3010afe60de6f92eb32e47c573ce2e5f08931f1cfc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Clippers vs. Kings | Event: nba-lac-sac-2025-10-15 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-18? | Event: bun-wol-stu-2025-10-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: LSU vs. Vanderbilt | Event: cfb-lsu-vand-2025-10-18 | Choice: lsu | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | fl1-olm-sbr-2025-11-08 | Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Brestois 29 end in a draw? | 78,813,546 | 78,813,546 |
fb99f1c53d1db710dd3321fe7476b1c6ced9317b | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x44996ef1024ea91c3b79f1a4a9956f2a5d23df1ed40b26f17aaa6d052bd84a72 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-18? | Event: bun-wol-stu-2025-10-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: LSU vs. Vanderbilt | Event: cfb-lsu-vand-2025-10-18 | Choice: lsu | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-19? | Event: fl1-nan-lil-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | fl1-olm-sbr-2025-11-08 | Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-08? | 78,813,551 | 78,813,551 |
9d1ea5682d282629c648a50ee9532d07e22c185e | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x5f17e46226143cd4594650faa1212944ea929c900768cf2297aa2bdb9f563c55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LSU vs. Vanderbilt | Event: cfb-lsu-vand-2025-10-18 | Choice: lsu | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-19? | Event: fl1-nan-lil-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-10-19? | Event: bun-fre-ein-2025-10-19 | Choice:... | no | 1 | fif-hkg-cam-2025-11-13 | Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2025-11-13? | 79,001,001 | 79,001,001 |
dab9d963858a37ca9843a1784d777e50c60d5d75 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x36425c098c5069c521b6d12fb57e8b5f4ef3701c5d43d7a4a583597c02d7da74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-19? | Event: fl1-nan-lil-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-10-19? | Event: bun-fre-ein-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sunderland AFC vs. Wolves end in a draw? | Event: epl-sun... | no | 1 | uef-pol-nld-2025-11-14 | Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? | 79,094,396 | 79,094,396 |
4bb9526b273392220e05e790df64123f29c1b733 | 0x3bfa56cb9700cac4f3afc70fa4df3b352395bfe0 | 0x7c0fee0191763cf31b951e3863c9f694c04e6964ece9ea7e3880cb3fed97d20e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-10-19? | Event: bun-fre-ein-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sunderland AFC vs. Wolves end in a draw? | Event: epl-sun-wol-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-10-22? | Event: u... | yes | 1 | ucl-gal-bog-2025-10-22 | Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-10-22? | 79,110,258 | 79,110,258 |
a126ae3f670e234a63a9c827d10eab2e059f7103 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0x3e3d61f477848499d6f5d61b3573cabe2ad8547c5957454e4052f8266003fb9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31?
Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | 66,180,488 | 66,180,488 |
b0395e7b3835eddffa1c221dd8aef65260eec75f | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0x5d28003556995083ad8f5a09eb6461e8b41c0f6af8d1c2269374e2cc83d8bb80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31?
Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target mar... | yes | 1 | top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | 66,180,488 | 66,180,488 |
f6d384c642bcec8bf2b34792b4d82010b4441fa5 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0xcebed92d00e70d9283100b73927b74ea46a4a0161959e104e80fb0acbec3876c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Gemini h... | yes | 1 | top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31? | 66,180,488 | 66,180,488 |
fa047283a1a20b41dc3de08a6de070471680b6d7 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0xe9adc4dc5fe6a7c2f952918809b10c56076272ff0fd030d0b347cbfc4f2dd27e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | yes | 1 | top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Will Claude have the top AI model on December 31? | 66,180,488 | 66,180,488 |
09f504a9632ebd62dd4164908d0fe1a371c245a2 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0xf153eefd52dad93c1675f76c17b3c6b59e67cd5ae2a452a6b9a2d028f5833fc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | yes | 1 | top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Will ChatGPT have the top AI model on December 31? | 66,180,488 | 66,180,488 |
40ffe8288e07acc297e2720201ba3e4ca67dc15e | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0x2a4447f833d06b50a65a557d6b6b7e6d005e159e489e3bc77ef30b8dd99e09b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-27-january-3 | Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 27-Jan 3? | 66,259,293 | 66,259,293 |
e30670440870b58509ce22c6d7bc792f711e8f79 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0x5a2019aaae7ed0261215e370458d9fcdecd99793111a0c9e92674bff518e4462 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-27-january-3 | Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 27-Jan 3? | 66,259,293 | 66,259,293 |
8f4ea77871af8ed55c166b7edd0a06c28bb69422 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0x75e5614f2edefcaa5b9186a9defa1e5b4ea8ca8cb0578149fd7dff931c6b2446 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-27-january-3 | Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 27-Jan 3? | 66,259,293 | 66,259,293 |
ead142091ee1f7ece682439ffc2e6cf073bb25ba | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0x7e7b4444705de810870a69df498bf00b7a6a24869f07586c6fcfd0ecee230bf8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-27-january-3 | Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 27-Jan 3? | 66,259,293 | 66,259,293 |
d6fd02f84ac5ee8a5f0939f34650d81d454fc8b5 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0x10adf7acb35da349caf13ab8d71a0afa661258f37f12ad3d82592696042f08ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | no | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,609,406 | 66,609,406 |
13c2678500af1be63f3060172e2f4237e61516c7 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0x2fc8f8cc40668ba16c45d37f45d0bd8a3601c4d84d9c0d50f83bf3ded5f580bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | no | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Elon Musk be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,609,406 | 66,609,406 |
f3496519937893a3f7c104c003c83915eac95957 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0x34d650cd671bfe703a0bbb2b2aab0387afb6292a6cdf4a08836245246b4f7b54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | no | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Elise Stefanik be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,609,406 | 66,609,406 |
7bd21de9001eaf35a3e8d1298f57364bd7b93d9c | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0x446e2d8e2ffbe7db85cd2239892df5447e73325b3552d07d5d6901b2eff95a59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | no | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,609,406 | 66,609,406 |
52e112e0b430e5b942ac5a2b5b50c47d9cc3c19d | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0x5a3a787704c11ae925566b5193f1ad3ea61c2aa8eea6514e14e9152a4feb0f7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | no | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Steve Scalise be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,609,406 | 66,609,406 |
0193145b393e8c37c9bf3629a11b79d858a78d6a | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0x64a87c7559aef832f6630af3e501919fb47a5d0107dbb1eb2236f71f910e5bdf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | yes | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,609,406 | 66,609,406 |
71757856dfd5bdf58c429b6d2fb85bd014e09db1 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0x8a2af36b760cae72ad72ce391429a3599923ea0c5c91f0f7a0e8e834d0e2a518 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | no | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Jim Jordan be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,609,406 | 66,609,406 |
0aeb05ad097d98006a5d7c29e0227c68b41d52d5 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0xa6cee46a6b278b406fc8ec11760cc0c2389060dd318afacccc05231327a81760 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | no | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Tom Emmer be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,609,406 | 66,609,406 |
e69c2fe8cd360b480aed0b28ad5a690129483179 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0xc48215384852516beb6b234237ad5ed9cec0f7ba1836fb2f06791b3d05294073 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | no | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Donald Trump be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,609,406 | 66,609,406 |
9b55be3aafcf4e30ca3f9c39d89cb32ed0efc3bc | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0x0e07d28fc57cf979bb6b09fa7ca9e7530c86fa5ac16bf0171a53d58cfd420e6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | no | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Jack Bergman be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,609,408 | 66,609,408 |
bbe4f03e4f0345b0f1c1c08e912d5c3ca133fc31 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0x39ea2c78a19e57d5c1de6e5180c039038a6a1a9c483f10e370f242b3da207b4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | no | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Byron Donalds be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,609,408 | 66,609,408 |
b2397342b8e2f599a661279f55dfd8ea8b0f54ca | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0x41b645817c8221ebd5c502d7589ceb34e3938c91e1ee09442eb5a52afa3e28d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-27-january-3 | Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 27-Jan 3? | 66,609,408 | 66,609,408 |
02dd94cfe1ea910ea10cf29ab905fdc754f51d66 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0x9170008ce066642f6dfe51292fe526bd842bd9ffa121ec9b053de8dfc1444123 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | no | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Austin Scott be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,609,408 | 66,609,408 |
2a6cc24174b83a7f58786a6607f0d73306e7950a | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0xd8fd65b176e52ac37807d46aeeaad7aeb68ba086b15a012830e45382810848cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | no | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Pete Sessions be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,609,408 | 66,609,408 |
d4472e8d4745d23f85a73297f96f4ff1a8d73089 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0xe727b6516b9c7549d61185ab18bf540e5922c131131134f187265d8a3a933c3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | no | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,609,408 | 66,609,408 |
4dd6f9be427b3604433b17c3fed1501fca234791 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0xe8d29154b15fe7eeefe5defa1433309dd95a455bee684cd8abad033aaac2ccd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | no | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Thomas Massie be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,609,408 | 66,609,408 |
87cad8d5d1fa66c2573d7cc528132ba7c4123f47 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0x5ca8edc07519ff6389d7948b2ff67d6e4c016c8941c1e9274ed3f3eb2716411e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | yes | 1 | andrew-tate-of-tweets-january-10-17 | Will Andrew Tate tweet 150 or more times Jan 10-17? | 66,846,338 | 66,846,338 |
e73ea345cc2548455ef46a86e752cb0d571e18fb | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0xa20bb3917e90f70e503d00387741ae8e65470de61e39ad46c09df3eafd599d4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | no | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,846,338 | 66,846,338 |
1f9f73e7fdac5429c1fb834307d0bb451e3897d0 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0xeb12fb23c56c8d690c51f6b2501c62fa0dcf25f8af04c0f92c68f94167a1f43b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | no | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,846,338 | 66,846,338 |
8ded1badca54d6ebf2dce96f6560bcbbf73985ca | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0xe80491f1675238b1e1bd3705520d1fe2539ecfacb42716f5558b10b6efa95d91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | no | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025? | 67,301,158 | 67,301,158 |
f9d2d4c2c9f81f5ecc8f10ff2f3e1b0c6d3e65f5 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0x4e0f29885709d63bfcff29e80f4a8df1da9e97906ba9e21577b46a70858d8e06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | 67,482,856 | 67,482,856 |
2d503befb57c1f546349bee7a5eccc520422f935 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0xc3c4c99a9b9173154a4b121e3a996c685a2a481a7da0aea144eb600886d85560 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top A... | no | 1 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | Manchester United wins the Premier League? | 68,429,899 | 68,429,899 |
fb27668c73db1354297b3980ca76e11f6b679eba | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0xc50248c9651c9c832a4d73c024f4a4a48d289b7ec08a80a65ee3b74f90e37fe2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI mod... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | 69,063,454 | 69,063,454 |
ca49ef66f8e8b38b5be13cb0bc8f028d637e2e10 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0xfb178547e84095b4a312392a4d703268f372935daec86e5795305db424c3ab00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Claude have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ChatGPT have the top AI ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-21-28 | Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28? | 69,063,454 | 69,063,454 |
3374cc7d160e8f6627b01d6f1554d46ebdec67d3 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0xbde7cb252ead2a71c66998e33c76cb1a5462d5c5bd970d0adc38c2d9dffdd807 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Claude have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ChatGPT have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 time... | no | 1 | nba-champion-2024-2025 | Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | 69,890,320 | 69,890,320 |
1b646eecaa43c30a30fd16796fbbb1fd4c924f92 | 0x3ca3fa261441dc71910cc7f87836e89588c21b52 | 0xd35868afa9257d08411f4c7d61601213fc3d9fa1ebbc1d963572263904be2616 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 27-Jan 3? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-27-january-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-... | no | 1 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | Bournemouth wins the Premier League? | 69,890,320 | 69,890,320 |
04f6a67dfee526ea83df504a8dd096c543423490 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x407a5ad35e4233504a2f119506f572194aa649225f75c36da8cd3aaaa51d34fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08?
Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | 76,237,525 | 76,237,525 |
6f76cdd6b523aa638eed523c999a931682617721 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0xda1e13b408a29f7e630ce1e20c31331e7c4a1a60961bee8bd96aae210e97e2b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway?
Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output... | no | 1 | next-prime-minister-of-norway | Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | 76,264,611 | 76,264,611 |
606866b190a37e76fca0c21c18eca41d1d36e8e7 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0xa6ba15e8fd49ffdf6112b415209a0edfb868f8a2cee9d01577e84ca845184c36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will France win on 2025-0... | yes | 1 | uef-fra-isl-2025-09-09 | Will France win on 2025-09-09? | 76,266,304 | 76,266,304 |
7cdac7ee0dde5d70ebc03935b2cba4c2683afb8b | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x2dcad5cd21ad4a8ecf20070e37b463c8ba4aa6f623f592d7eb07425b066e6da9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | uef-alb-lat-2025-09-09 | Will Latvia win on 2025-09-09? | 76,266,307 | 76,266,307 |
d5f318cf5583533df285a61b11b1498d492534e0 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x0a19dccdc016d28adeaf4e03b806918acfe966909d806e42301ef8e52cc0e23d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | caf-mtn-ssd-2025-09-09 | Will South Sudan win on 2025-09-09? | 76,266,310 | 76,266,310 |
04fdc9b804f16343019dc68cf792a96c62b8f299 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x4f9af8a5248c2028b91f66d24022f9c83bfe5c2a2aaacbe04ba19ca042de7d64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | cof-jam-tri-2025-09-09 | Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2025-09-09? | 76,276,513 | 76,276,513 |
e4ceac6387ab20990e060930b50337a201f11d83 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x93ae0bd274982c8c08581bc3ef1fa143e1294a6326d2a2eec345515a2cb15620 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | august-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in August? | 76,342,156 | 76,342,156 |
8d1ce43126c0cd46209393e4661abd410b366d5d | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x95b97e221ec07453850b4d3f76b4ac11fef10473ef6c3dca537874d5c712a56f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-11 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on September 11? | 76,347,104 | 76,347,104 |
6923e83d7be37aa26b5f26cb39ed58373adc5efb | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x6a98d4a2d571d430496f113ee5d9ca02da1376b893f0e13492060bce7722d339 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on September 11? | 76,355,271 | 76,355,271 |
5ce0cc98e53aef761c4ea699c48a647c050a7ecc | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x12df16348ec4643fb0ff19bbc6db331e5ba81b777cde03dc3d6cc336aa976113 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on September 11? | 76,370,337 | 76,370,337 |
756030b9eae6ed2b197a3a0bcbfdcd4881b449dc | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0xe4f70f955092f6242ff5190d0cf6395a79be8d95424a4ce3cdf64b0848e20189 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | august-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in August? | 76,370,337 | 76,370,337 |
af382e165d4cebe00dace6019c842e3ab5bd5b78 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x3ba7c06df556c1dac5a226bdb72b45f1403762586653941a9b67f56db967e669 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | ere-aja-zwo-2025-09-13 | Will PEC Zwolle win on 2025-09-13? | 76,417,196 | 76,417,196 |
09af68544630c1eb883c3f7cdb6e65111ce2cd23 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x348ae0b3ef1006fc06e042705d92b55c21a4d19464579b42bf76430e4b6ed2c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | yes | 1 | bun-bay-hsv-2025-09-13 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | 76,418,888 | 76,418,888 |
6804176312a1cfaad37bcaefec663160bca3ab98 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x5b57ecb37493063877936b246da86301283dfa8ab04cdff5dae4dcaa1f8bc9e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | tur-eyu-gal-2025-09-13 | Will Eyüpspor win on 2025-09-13? | 76,429,052 | 76,429,052 |
ae20811dafba0e42ea4785aceedfe44a3f71790d | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0xc23da160689e7759f04e69235401d9caa5a73030fcdfc46eb466ba8611b9b536 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | epl-bur-liv-2025-09-14 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-14? | 76,454,251 | 76,454,251 |
62ad0ee7138d35233c0b4e2fdf8c2f1784b948e2 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x3b2a232e323eba7d1f742f3c7cb6b4d90a8757e321989ac577dc29fe2ec2b421 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Will Valencia win on 2025-09-14? | 76,469,343 | 76,469,343 |
5b2a23de26e9e1a50fd76b399533aa4c9fdf15b0 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0xc865b0318f0cd0e973edf804fe67113d2b13478011c8deb6b6e8bb2f58ea26f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | yes | 1 | emmys-lead-actor-in-a-comedy | Will Seth Rogan win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series? | 76,511,158 | 76,511,158 |
70de6a0e4665e70590dbc2e322ca68b8a1f5bb83 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x786ae71c554140ce9e99015a46ab62d1526f432a7aecc4be684025400802b7d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,514,743 | 76,514,743 |
e4fd132a5af4cacf7b50b1a3fa65a8e87ee14a9e | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x6c3d5fba5442f3e725eb89b7cffcc341ca3105cddaac09c1e4bc8e7010f0fe40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,574,885 | 76,574,885 |
b0da27d0907696196c45f82a9b9c42d84ce23853 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x9f41a3e4a2ef548cf207c22a48dbaf73e28dda5ec014c145217f428aaf3769e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,574,887 | 76,574,887 |
4ac4b7c67175e254a3fc7158687e21343126c002 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0xfd676efae0d8f646e6210f1f33edc53781904cba1fb2b2067b22457862858073 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | ere-fey-sit-2025-09-17 | Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2025-09-17? | 76,579,906 | 76,579,906 |
dd63e2a4eaa133533dd47a221d4ff869365d8b70 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x177cc790c3b8887751beab4c0a99aa3934b3ae385514f9b6f00fc08e1693a8bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-17 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on September 17? | 76,595,104 | 76,595,104 |
9884f9aee689cc9e60be04e18d21a5b7122fc638 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0xb4fecb68d9c0fc1695e610008f9cd456edbd565ef6c31b1e2b3e4895ed7010d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | lib-fla-est-2025-09-18 | Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-09-18? | 76,635,744 | 76,635,744 |
09cc2a86ba782dc03519449d93ef2689615609d3 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0xbb3510eca26cb461dd9ff4bbf4c8ab74db32c7a47fff2fa12a491e667b761dfe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | mex-pac-que-2025-09-20 | Will Querétaro FC win on 2025-09-20? | 76,711,849 | 76,711,849 |
214b6cb6683489f8653f5421f84ae207aad37c09 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x14c35db64dd6c7b5543a132c2f396c7bcba81ff2f342624279008a5f31b2e7a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 76,737,260 | 76,737,260 |
cf15934500234ad68d0ec9b8e5ea24856d54d16c | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x95ea5b3446a127de21c948f1e53f5911a307d14e13a2e9081af64e38cd2f5e94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-3rd-place | Will Carlos Sainz finish third at the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 76,737,262 | 76,737,262 |
1530e2e6c0a01c4216d949adb031d6e72c902bee | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x77d83f1b9f503e105fd23692717fa12a434b4c2f8ba594ebaa0dc61543d05cbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | sea-int-sas-2025-09-21 | Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-09-21? | 76,742,342 | 76,742,342 |
77efdb6cdde41d81719f83dbb0eb5fdbc78b5ac5 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x80fd12bf58e032d210d8eb8ddd07940f85b3bbeb862b0ef3128d7ecc546c99cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | sea-nap-pis-2025-09-22 | Will Pisa SC win on 2025-09-22? | 76,782,866 | 76,782,866 |
47d95d739c67dc103b14c4db1c1fe399e90479b7 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0xf16a7232fd8973cc2ce3ad8a6db196c6cf55bc55b301c49e35a5a96e28a87419 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | a-big-bold-beautiful-journey-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 3.5m? | 76,782,869 | 76,782,869 |
34a2ef94d9bf21746c70a41105b6e25312986aa9 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0xaf9634a1e982805bebc1b9926221ef42d7f8544db2a93de90deccb1ba7b81101 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | how-much-more-does-a-big-bold-beautiful-journey-gross-than-the-senior | Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" gross 125–150% of "The Senior"? | 76,782,872 | 76,782,872 |
9a4c89cf3e2c3f0937d4c9f74cb40945cbb4d9e1 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0xe5db68d54f2ab20844f52bcbc5d4cc7e626cb6bca07e67dcdadb4ee90f0650d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guatemala win on 2025-09-08? | Event: cof-pan-gua-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | womens-ballon-dor-winner-2025 | Will Alexia Putellas win the 2025 Women’s Ballon d’Or? | 76,782,876 | 76,782,876 |
0384d006e5f6473827d9b55d959a0025d36b696a | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x48df3469b543869d28959e4a2aea2ff167b38533a57a45f3c2c2791ad8a70893 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-fra-isl-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Latvia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: ... | no | 1 | a-big-bold-beautiful-journey-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2.5m and 3m? | 76,782,878 | 76,782,878 |
60e8f060d0455731a80784295f6987067805cccd | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x6497f144b6590c6571f2e476ecf36ce04de0f30e87d623a288bdcadeb94bdf50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-fra-isl-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Latvia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-alb-lat-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will South Sudan win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-mtn-ssd-2025-09-09 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | how-much-more-does-a-big-bold-beautiful-journey-gross-than-the-senior | Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" gross less than 125% of "The Senior"? | 76,782,880 | 76,782,880 |
8a1885a7e9825f6a19212174f60e3fa3e359470a | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x15c58fe766a16e4e5b0d9ca2811d192acd13ea37c6d709aa1134b659468c8758 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Latvia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-alb-lat-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will South Sudan win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-mtn-ssd-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2025-09-09? | Event: cof-jam-tri-2025-09-0... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-22 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on September 22? | 76,798,111 | 76,798,111 |
0fa200429533c455058df75d1627bd8f53f90a28 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0xc264072a1148f9dcf5ec8670884fac76a859a375eeeb3c49162eeb8813c280fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will South Sudan win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-mtn-ssd-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2025-09-09? | Event: cof-jam-tri-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in August? | Event: au... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-23 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on September 23? | 76,838,711 | 76,838,711 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.