sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
b580e56ee597204168034a8ea18450bff420341d | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x06cbf1c3758ff561bbf81442695050a62a8db52a58e0046a223b745dbc6a299b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60 and 65? | Event: the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be more than 65? | Event: the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-may-698 | Will the US add between 50k and 99k jobs in May? | 72,440,494 | 72,440,494 |
b7592cd546c1f8ea55f30a8e9e0a89a8fbb5112d | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x11d4b011e263b36f6c1805c236bef4b27c1c3856858f3a1f3d3d04e4720c7e21 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be more than 65? | Event: the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mercedes have the highest Constructor score at the Saudi Arabian GP? | Event: f1-saudi-arabian-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-po... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-may-698 | Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May? | 72,440,494 | 72,440,494 |
8885fec7e9c6d10073e512db71eec4238c4c4343 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x34b67cf2ecd1f7eda5cf7c94b75fd1111e20e36e730cde0e7016a39cf4a2c6ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mercedes have the highest Constructor score at the Saudi Arabian GP? | Event: f1-saudi-arabian-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winn... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-may-698 | Will the US add between 150k and 199k jobs in May? | 72,440,494 | 72,440,494 |
77307d99fc128b73e32b468c7cba51c2557c7f40 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x9f607c81ff4ecac19324ab06710da024b6019d45bbb67549533507d5b0a3ede3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mercedes have the second-highest Constructor score at the Saudi Arabian GP? | Event: f1-saudi-arabian-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-se... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-psg-vs-atltico-madrid | Will PSG beat Atlético Madrid? | 72,848,504 | 72,848,504 |
5eec29798e605c8acc769c3d2f816cfafc70db65 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x4bc0eb8d2c640bb37d906780a506a83f69678a46a6e0ef8d2643b81715e009ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mercedes have the second-highest Constructor score at the Saudi Arabian GP? | Event: f1-saudi-arabian-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-second-most-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ferrari have the highest Constructor score at the Saudi Arabian GP? | Event: f... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-river-plate-vs-urawa-red-diamonds | Will River Plate beat Urawa Red Diamonds? | 72,914,482 | 72,914,482 |
a38955b21876c6620ac5963b6458e9ebe5c0f152 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x055722a3b98c1822bb174034f480147ad6f737b8b192c4f67297d9255e31d02d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ferrari have the highest Constructor score at the Saudi Arabian GP? | Event: f1-saudi-arabian-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's approval rating be less than 44.0% on April 25? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-apr... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-real-madrid-vs-al-hilal | Will Real Madrid vs. Al Hilal end in a draw? | 72,954,162 | 72,954,162 |
939e6ca925eb83e8e028f6b59a93d68085e33b2a | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x989b4664c6b3500bfa03f723c15988179e7ca682c9881455d9a55d9634396f73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump's approval rating be less than 44.0% on April 25? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-april-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get 40m+ views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-04162025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-fc-porto | Will Inter Miami beat FC Porto? | 73,006,834 | 73,006,834 |
d48d962e578faa14ea2c40a90da6eb5ce30501f3 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0xea8ae13f535886d36d71c56abfc64eb50aed95d78823f209318fa706ebc03854 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get 40m+ views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-04162025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 20-25m views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-04162025 | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-fc-porto | Will FC Porto beat Inter Miami? | 73,006,834 | 73,006,834 |
a99af4f69b0f453afdfa52e5d739aa472601fddc | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x16bcd40739c7096de15f037d3e9dc8151670f3e65e7874a153bb79e392ff000c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 20-25m views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-04162025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 30-35m views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-04162025 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-benfica-vs-auckland-city | Will Benfica beat Auckland City? | 73,019,909 | 73,019,909 |
6aac7c92464aec2f1eb39c682840a8e6365a613d | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x51ecb20f7b9fb366400c52c88bdf9870616c91a524bec92e1c9aeb4cd5a4cf3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 30-35m views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-04162025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on April 30? | Event: us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-april-30 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-flamengo-vs-chelsea | Will Chelsea beat Flamengo? | 73,019,909 | 73,019,909 |
07d1ca1679370dcb9ce995b43e56b2cb1473abdc | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x657758a013fdb2fb66b9b5ffad47b3bdd15974a0ad94080e0b4de751297a86b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on April 30? | Event: us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-april-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-benfica-vs-auckland-city | Will Benfica vs. Auckland City end in a draw? | 73,019,909 | 73,019,909 |
a725f584b8cba63284fc90eb8d4ee8db9b84c8c4 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x814cb983165203ab3c843485745aaa452146314c9b9a329eaaf4cd02b1b33386 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration first? | Event: who-will-leave-trump-administration-first | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-benfica-vs-auckland-city | Will Auckland City beat Benfica? | 73,019,909 | 73,019,909 |
4fc3896886afe8a0e6f26a73f0e2c0ae6fad0745 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x4e3a543f9150bb24e4aaa56b300f8ffef13558049458a888e09e1f9267e99eb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration first? | Event: who-will-leave-trump-administration-first | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-04? | Event: epl-che-liv-2025-05-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-04... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-ulsan | Will Fluminense beat Ulsan Hyundai? | 73,071,261 | 73,071,261 |
84da3058e1518b9b2d9d86fd6577403377796305 | 0x06af7d54ea6f1e3df688422534ef59654fa93741 | 0x14a627125189acddf5dadf940f961ad6897c04be60f7fbd85f513e2cfa36b439 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-04? | Event: epl-che-liv-2025-05-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-04? | Event: epl-che-liv-2025-05-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix? | Event: miami-grand-prix... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-723 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 55–60 million views on day 1? | 73,110,833 | 73,110,833 |
dd71895baa945026331924c202cfd1d9127031f0 | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x21149909e80c13a5c21889b6d648671d4ebe40a87bca022fd7b7f37fba646af2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?
Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | 71,060,696 | 71,060,696 |
7be29d8b00558adfa8d6827e898202c1566c99c6 | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x31ffd9aab0ebb5be9ec63c29f42bbe1d6c7a43c246612ce3e42febc8658e242a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?
Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope
Predict the user's choice and con... | no | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | 71,284,373 | 71,284,373 |
d0f2b16749d928e34ca0594cca4d8c85be9f96cc | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x90dd69cd3383c1a4de4255e2848e367fff87052c1cdb14a575faea068cb8ec06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market... | no | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will another person be the next Pope? | 71,284,374 | 71,284,374 |
9b092d28f1ffd1c11c361f103b0844d97ec49f62 | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x14197a2979391a7bb1e6918582334640f309c22c7718f824c9fa1e149302662f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | 71,284,377 | 71,284,377 |
9ca730a3990b140cf94e3832ac0ec9608247f855 | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0xa4f51ae09144ebedb1e4329a28597dcb25217be1050fb76b86335837943bf519 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | next-president-of-south-korea | Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | 72,335,375 | 72,335,375 |
84b0192c3c69ff26ad2aa87ecc10ce3ff6fcadde | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x035271f6f738d852d9a8462a235ada2654fbc1d7046273fcb0f835f541afea81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | 2025-us-open-golf-winner | Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 U.S. Open? | 72,824,207 | 72,824,207 |
373695d1b35f8628efb7beedc143c6071e013333 | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0xf2a89afeddff5315e37211b0b0e4e93ed167fba2694cd35c252672d0aca73711 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | nba-champion-2024-2025 | Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | 73,115,719 | 73,115,719 |
361de94941b352c61f84c8649299151c85947dd9 | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0xed4615db4766881d064c19a6ca9ea6f3f3bc4d55c41fac513d1ca7a2f4dc96e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | bolivia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | 75,436,273 | 75,436,273 |
ab311addce6462a72f68d1a58d4c33e0e72a3ae8 | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0xb9ec4394b00a43b7fecca64fd351f714ee6ee8bb241c2e04ecf89f0eeeb32cd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner-2025 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | 76,783,296 | 76,783,296 |
88d22a4768404189be2e5c94e7618376ded952cc | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x08fd8c7cfce5d959368b3b6bffb4e503c17b7cd6099c770a46ca296baa12ddf5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | ucl-kay-rma-2025-09-30 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-30? | 77,110,102 | 77,110,102 |
acaf61cc123b81c5d8b1e4dac81ea1cd16bdbd1e | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x75b8a5b9accb7c464bd5c04271c42e91b52a1b1013471cf52c965287a336c093 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | bun-ein-bay-2025-10-04 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-04? | 77,275,972 | 77,275,972 |
aaf8e3873022116dc77bcdbb613690b5aefa8b5a | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0xca82e3dc15bfa5fc5e11ad6945e53143e1c30da21f3631b9090a9b8d17fe1354 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | epl-bre-mac-2025-10-05 | Will Brentford win on 2025-10-05? | 77,317,350 | 77,317,350 |
428bde29e4e8bfe31314e137ca11ea6826c49486 | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x7344406c2c33255afc25b7bde3c5791fa7bb5f980023a0f5a961e014ffe2ed62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | uef-mal-nld-2025-10-09 | Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-09? | 77,483,778 | 77,483,778 |
b847ac455c9f561efc9a4985310a801fe680ed52 | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x77927e301fed9124438e246f70ecd4a3160ad0aa7ea5fc091bd1bd1211d46be4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | uef-smr-cyp-2025-10-12 | Will San Marino win on 2025-10-12? | 77,594,115 | 77,594,115 |
06b5d5a574c71029295ed33bc4843386790d2f02 | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x469fa41bae551f8df20dc68c35737ae57bc26730f8d14045e2626dad32ed22fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | uef-hrv-gib-2025-10-12 | Will Croatia win on 2025-10-12? | 77,611,086 | 77,611,086 |
e3a9ba0b32bc2b61aa32ed7d899c7df6776a192e | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x383cef353fe1b2df1a40e405fdb15f3404a3671e093f186b96fa4258c3f5f94b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | fif-mon-lie-2025-10-13 | Will Liechtenstein win on 2025-10-13? | 77,654,536 | 77,654,536 |
a57bd0e042f39dc0713928d327877bf4095db718 | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x8c36590432cbfec00a700549464eaa06e1073b6620bb6358233e1416b7e16804 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | epl-ful-ars-2025-10-18 | Will Fulham win on 2025-10-18? | 77,873,752 | 77,873,752 |
324d2b8c3779ff42df087237c3f25447006ad421 | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x12a29dfd706ab5c700789e50df80ddfa8cd6dc8fdd3723b480a9adb39e5a58bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21? | 78,000,587 | 78,000,587 |
cda60080cb07c06cd671741c55a569f89af91c50 | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x45f3528de5f6b29a07613a1a895aa92e84c8d8101939fcaf7f2ba074613ccd38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-10-22? | 78,041,220 | 78,041,220 |
4902f9f1084397ec45c03719d8d076ce35c1b888 | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0xd48d5927685519378d2fe2fa62a24b3682ff7595dacd4439df109abff3b0c667 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | ucl-ath-qar-2025-10-22 | Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-10-22? | 78,041,220 | 78,041,220 |
b1facc30f814ed823b74bf54782a39f42f36f4d7 | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0xfb387be4c84846e206ad75440cd15530bee53506b620a496851d4d6e3de7c422 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | bun-moe-bay-2025-10-25 | Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-10-25? | 78,157,653 | 78,157,653 |
f224fef9e0c317602d36023ad77c60647dc533ac | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x7e0f01cd95c28d2699259d70026370333982734d5c951d084e7e56be7498097a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | fl1-sbr-psg-2025-10-25 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,174,480 | 78,174,480 |
c2605f0fa61a63543fa21bff7a1bb2e2c36f6e31 | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0xcbe0c95414afa1e8b9be5e67c9557245427dea55430675fab1f7c48b9f9d7961 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | ere-psv-sit-2025-10-31 | Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2025-10-31? | 78,433,228 | 78,433,228 |
4a1ddd77df3c86906b74c2117df1d22893e67882 | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0xa497879fa6951974311092a53f5959cd92fb68d076328f052195916ffef732da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | lal-vil-ray-2025-11-01 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-11-01? | 78,457,993 | 78,457,993 |
91315608a08336ad848c06bec00a1da89053c801 | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0xe76871bcc8c7a81c413c95c7ebac47055912570ad1a86b3f4944309a51774531 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | lal-vil-ray-2025-11-01 | Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-01? | 78,457,993 | 78,457,993 |
dffbf688e3943f7c5ec5e0c15dd39a964b41f30b | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x2c6789c9431c99e009b89dc785b649472850e0bb0f89dd3793c8b5dd3acf28ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | epl-bur-ars-2025-11-01 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,475,853 | 78,475,853 |
7b85e3c2f74592b9f0edd903a3432d1f8660216b | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0xf599867c2694e5c0a7f079442735318f3529686065da4154785d657c93525652 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | bun-bay-b04-2025-11-01 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-01? | 78,475,853 | 78,475,853 |
25e7168cd93caa54cd8ee74fee00cb847e01b5fe | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x1073cc3483263763397b853cb095ac8451f7e26b5a94231b5973c14bf6e7a95a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? | 78,482,957 | 78,482,957 |
87886fcd4bd9816bf38b98dc985454f42a19a452 | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x5395d8c3aa790216a23748cd5ad6e9cc4573879061bbb06deb96e3662b3ee323 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | ere-her-zwo-2025-11-02 | Will Heracles Almelo win on 2025-11-02? | 78,498,069 | 78,498,069 |
801ce5b17d59bca1685206af86f173353c015363 | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x648087110d9eeed1eb2bd36580e136e9a1b715417357997596462a8dfd2cd48d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Will Levante UD win on 2025-11-02? | 78,501,352 | 78,501,352 |
7086ca0a889a4d604e2941b007a6f17d168ee4ec | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x1416c0389179eefb02518047d148320b97d84365d27c92044e0a27dbc977c7d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Event: people-power-party-ppp-presidential-candidate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | bun-koe-hsv-2025-11-02 | Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-11-02? | 78,511,972 | 78,511,972 |
6f9dafa117eb6e3b3ecf96e3625c64d2d94bc50d | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x617458741c0a2f568b12b3d72a98d96827ed4330773bac45fc891aa9886c597d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person be the next Pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | 78,511,972 | 78,511,972 |
e4ae4aa2bf1b30ca93850e6adda7262a0e4ebded | 0x06c0d07d5b59b25316bf1e6007aca6ad8f20bc23 | 0x849471e396e6888926d8d216daf876e12b1e484c810863417479c1bdb6bdd09f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another person be the next Pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president o... | no | 1 | lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-02? | 78,511,972 | 78,511,972 |
cbcfb3a6fee824c9a5a9300e462170d4fc2c162b | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0x04ccfec5c371aa3d4ae3f07f6404cf353a715fe6d90094b7ac7cdde8e1c5095a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday?
Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | 72,752,975 | 72,752,975 |
429f6fe62e43bae6dd9adb1a88722768c76aad75 | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0xafad6e1e34a5c6109e0b9e5a3f9ae924c089a655733d2dee70536636b6fc4111 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund?
Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund
Predict the user's choice and confidence for th... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | 72,897,748 | 72,897,748 |
b6c7944863ffa412cc1687ebfeb027f08082b59a | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0xee6e97f822d3ef588288fa163b03bc4c10080fb918b112adff68db1ffcb16097 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Wi... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-real-madrid-vs-al-hilal | Will Real Madrid beat Al Hilal? | 72,940,957 | 72,940,957 |
7ef35dbace7e2e5a9cde17ff678f7e662aabe68b | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0x054a59ba05a4b626da9abd54cd8198020e72bbe2373a2df8d7b7fd72449ad33d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madri... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-river-plate-vs-urawa-red-diamonds | Will Urawa Red Diamonds beat River Plate? | 72,945,263 | 72,945,263 |
40651ea273413e92e7232cde889e4ada27f074cc | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0x0adcd754cfa01053b39aebb3111d6f16f8cae3c4f6a8cd1dd08ce37e0c446ec6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madri... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-bayern-munich-vs-auckland-city | Will Bayern Munich beat Auckland City? | 72,945,263 | 72,945,263 |
8ee8dc15d0f3f5e7cc2a3ef145d839b0d858eb88 | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0x7f719f7ae2c95e7d4ed2059126ab05aa231d301ee232ce8c18fb08e2f32bf658 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madri... | yes | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-june-6 | Will Trump's approval rating be 47.0% or higher on June 6? | 72,945,263 | 72,945,263 |
8bd8e3110a7b1bfc7d815731e2fe226338d18a8b | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0x9f607c81ff4ecac19324ab06710da024b6019d45bbb67549533507d5b0a3ede3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madri... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-psg-vs-atltico-madrid | Will PSG beat Atlético Madrid? | 72,945,263 | 72,945,263 |
958a66fc9137d30ae4fa7cf57a442205724c0104 | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0xa96559d1467c88ac44caced8cebc66a731ec0553909cb260fbad7b224fa97327 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madri... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-flamengo-vs-esperance-sportive | Will Flamengo beat Esperance Sportive? | 72,945,263 | 72,945,263 |
6692cbfd0ca0bdda64a687fb7792a9d79c806d8c | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0xc2a48236067f875ac488e4424c6d86a98d0d95373e779250578313b90028e649 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madri... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-monterrey-vs-inter-milan | Will Monterrey beat Inter Milan? | 72,945,263 | 72,945,263 |
eccc90ed51b85044677580675ec12de16ff1254f | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0xfcb7e5636a8d9915c1e54bc97b401d4d61883ea249a15c40b5431685d0f4bb28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madri... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-lafc | Will Chelsea beat LAFC? | 72,945,263 | 72,945,263 |
e56c98ad492f1f6b9029bbbaad7453f51252c26e | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0x842d591c84db48c0c2309cde4ceba4adbf7b9a181261b853798599fa76b36e53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madri... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-boca-juniors-vs-benfica | Will Benfica beat Boca Juniors? | 72,945,265 | 72,945,265 |
78cc63683166d2b2b5eb4e3c7b5dd1a04da176ca | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0xa6aff712e4ddce672b6eda9a7bb719b6d798bf96d7afff1777ffd49e93566e1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madri... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-palmeiras-vs-fc-porto | Will FC Porto beat Palmeiras? | 72,945,265 | 72,945,265 |
e7e47a0c5ceaa0e6b810f58cc545eb4cf9f6d899 | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0xea8ae13f535886d36d71c56abfc64eb50aed95d78823f209318fa706ebc03854 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madri... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-fc-porto | Will FC Porto beat Inter Miami? | 72,981,987 | 72,981,987 |
31cfa3beb2272ed08cb578b683ba9d34d907f6ae | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0x4048aa9ba786b55761ff1385918cfc591b1e46f7a1a56953849052d70b9cde13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madri... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-psg-vs-botafogo | Will Botafogo beat PSG? | 73,010,333 | 73,010,333 |
de08b07bcf06249946a202ef6cd020c76b008e00 | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0xd2622768863c294dbaa4813994b8c2a7401f2547c56318a8ad0d6f01bf7e914b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madri... | yes | 1 | 2025-terra-wortmann-open-winner | Will Alex Michelsen win the 2025 Terra Wortmann Open? | 73,010,335 | 73,010,335 |
f28f96249f5b455263671619bdda2edb7f05b4af | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0x51ecb20f7b9fb366400c52c88bdf9870616c91a524bec92e1c9aeb4cd5a4cf3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madri... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-flamengo-vs-chelsea | Will Chelsea beat Flamengo? | 73,019,757 | 73,019,941 |
ed06d1c6e7534ad07c1c1f4dcc3fe555145702e0 | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0x7af06ac0dc6d8ce728a2cbc0ea0a2b0912d29c998779d49f3fda214bb925bf51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madri... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-lafc-vs-esperance-sportive | Will LAFC beat Esperance Sportive? | 73,026,706 | 73,026,706 |
d705717b3e0adb6c6e3b87807ac72ac77546a04e | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0xb72af58ffc2d5929ae808247c0653bc89948eadb0d3e111420fdb92a8343428e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madri... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-inter-milan-vs-urawa | Will Urawa Red Diamonds beat Inter Milan? | 73,061,810 | 73,061,810 |
611805e7a4a83b00ae0910b447155d39bc2196c8 | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0x61ca4263babeb22cc9475a791ab696cccaf9054b4b4ccea41b7b4b6094ec11ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madri... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-river-plate-vs-monterrey | Will Monterrey beat River Plate? | 73,086,428 | 73,086,428 |
7a1e7aedb92d2f536fc8425c5543583bb580ccc9 | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0xac7076b9237bb55def115256e1b075aba052b2d4b9228a8b2fb6cfb447be414f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madri... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup | Will Juventus beat Wydad AC? | 73,097,077 | 73,097,077 |
e64893ddf2682f43488cb6dd83fc3ed0eed4dde9 | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0x14aa7db66ec6d6b876264778e0947de399330e99e0bcf11c3116ef57b89708cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madri... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-real-madrid-vs-pachuca | Will Pachuca beat Real Madrid? | 73,102,120 | 73,102,120 |
43c19912d93c49128243056833e3ae0ac552caaf | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0x8a720c56f2c26f0f9edb24e75abfdfa73f661f930cbcc1cfe5fdb0d6e5ba6a01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madri... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-esperance-sportive-vs-chelsea | Will Esperance Sportive beat Chelsea? | 73,210,619 | 73,210,619 |
840fcb7ef1a876519d2643332c7be27565646d31 | 0x06c6d9413f3234a58bd66b39844ba33b29ce4162 | 0x655e5ca101c466b6293aa15e06173b78b293221803d56e35551f708cd82eb352 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madri... | yes | 0.00002 | will-zelenskyy-wear-a-suit-before-july | Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | 73,213,066 | 73,239,498 |
bc50e17664d36900bcc5c035a8208a7e1c549b6d | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0x25b66bd50bb6b65fd6c24fd06528bf7adf1628b22d6de796035c2a194e2b92d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Portugal win?
Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Will Portugal win? | 59,030,595 | 59,030,595 |
408760193add25839fdd7070b3c9b40f2c6316b9 | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0x7bf82abf3881cb54659acec1246f9d0d004e0ba206e1f5f1fd2dc0f93da319b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election?
Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Out... | yes | 0.333333 | which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | 59,081,526 | 59,104,076 |
787d8890826523883d31024781a24920e4765957 | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0x69be238c9338774e6de338ecda4481dd545e7636e5f370afac9909db21901970 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
Target market:
Question: Will N... | no | 0 | which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Will NFP win the most seats in the French election? | 59,081,866 | 59,081,866 |
90b603f3c2bb76c3b4a21d4c968d4cc1c64fd1be | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0x24ba2a58aa5356cda3d55dfc98cf8e98cbfff8a56e06d029eaa92fae8be1a6d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | yes | 1 | how-many-seats-will-national-rally-coalition-win-in-french-election | Will National Rally win 325+ seats? | 59,104,076 | 59,104,076 |
450e9c9661d49ea671469196da73201ccee3c62b | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0x5d327b208ce423d239b75e2d35d503b4018b8927eb70de3903a3f0ccb486c82e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | yes | 1 | how-many-seats-will-national-rally-coalition-win-in-french-election | Will National Rally win 300-324 seats? | 59,104,076 | 59,104,076 |
9ac52ecc8b00232ab89051309bbfe1f775762c0a | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0x91594fcd5835298d43267d5f8eda000d34d857498b68bd972ad3f504bb232574 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | yes | 1 | how-many-seats-will-the-ensemble-coalition-win-in-the-french-election | Will Ensemble win less than 50 seats in the French election? | 59,104,076 | 59,104,076 |
ebab119259a7ad24fd0c88b783e3e88bff25369c | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0xb0884f7440050e4cb54a27267438509f64bb7f9aa962c97cfc8ca91b5a862a99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | yes | 1 | which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Will RN/UXD win the most seats in the French election? | 59,104,076 | 59,104,076 |
c3948685ceeacfba5e65e3d3774719808705bac7 | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0xbe22ba909386bef513f83fad301291ca53a870de1d0481973c95259a9bb5dce9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | yes | 1 | how-many-seats-will-national-rally-coalition-win-in-french-election | Will National Rally win 275-299 seats? | 59,104,076 | 59,104,076 |
fc33b0bf1dfed30ee809420c21de6f37d7c3131a | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0xd5352c24b62c5e005b0e51f08dc199c4d1f2cb30c1cb61261de78c75832e6d04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | yes | 1 | how-many-seats-will-the-ensemble-coalition-win-in-the-french-election | Will Ensemble win between 70 and 89 seats in the French election? | 59,104,076 | 59,104,076 |
460b4090cd226512c210461f827933fd23e44eb4 | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0xd7b19698bd7fb6d70da404e4dbca2f972159b74ed0fc9b97a3abca116f0df18d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | yes | 1 | how-many-seats-will-the-ensemble-coalition-win-in-the-french-election | Will Ensemble win between 110 and 129 seats in the French election? | 59,104,076 | 59,104,076 |
db4139e649b5adc286ff6baa92663f1109ca1be3 | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0xe75a25fdd9b07b4f791ee74239d36b367ea451388086245c9d47ac5d07bf0949 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | yes | 1 | how-many-seats-will-the-ensemble-coalition-win-in-the-french-election | Will Ensemble win between 90 and 109 seats in the French election? | 59,104,076 | 59,104,076 |
95a8a9be3f7df7bb299deb3e855d0ddfb5d95f50 | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0xb165b0b4f7f1adcf9313da4638ff3fa1d910370565d4331612f579869a0db6fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | no | 1 | next-french-prime-minister | Manuel Bompard next Prime Minister of France? | 59,119,071 | 59,119,071 |
b9e10310c2222ac595cea4ef2fd81e14937fca57 | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0x5048e2becd0687361a1bd17a1936d0dc0a80af126f920507923053831d82419c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | yes | 1 | wimbledon-mens-champion | Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon Men's? | 59,161,778 | 59,161,778 |
ead8590279758a7bdb4e52ce151b4bc010204fa9 | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0x025f63b916f5ee656987b67edf9f9f81b68e700a8a045168c4f17fbd24299997 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-5-july-12 | Will Elon tweet less than 40 times? | 59,163,216 | 59,163,216 |
a915b840c5e80f474d67c128c4cd3b27a8ca656b | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0x5e9d5508e0b1b4060ac03c6f6b076d7a65d3245ce9b005c816d9a512c61cb11a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | no | 1 | next-french-prime-minister | Another New Popular Front member next Prime Minister of France? | 59,193,968 | 59,432,195 |
07edc3ae32e35ad215c11b1d85205175eb43f99f | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0x18e1db2925a2b7d149235cbf4494da5ad2b9299fdc7580d61470091e6e80349a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | no | 0 | what-will-biden-say-during-his-press-conference-today | Will Biden say "Drop out" during July 11 press conference? | 59,246,002 | 59,246,002 |
9b9cc516a48ede39f41efd8fd08110371560be81 | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0x44d741c55fcd865d7de87fb3f332bcaa8bbe081f0c951a1e71361c25023237bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | no | 0 | what-will-biden-say-during-his-press-conference-today | Will Biden say "Project 2025" during July 11 press conference? | 59,246,017 | 59,246,017 |
08cfbcb859dca08b109f2a855f17388814261070 | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0x82fcf854517d37de1065b18afe55d03fbcd51bdefc9637f5516ceb05e977196d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | no | 0.038007 | who-will-speak-at-republican-national-convention | Will Melania Trump speak at the RNC? | 59,254,939 | 59,254,939 |
70a2aa5aeea5ed169a72036e49c5108f24a30e81 | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0x5d0bcab06faf5769bcdf4d3a9d3fa67971840d755403ee056b04820b5b9b27a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | england | 0 | euro-finals-spain-vs-england-expected-goals-xg | Euro Finals: Spain vs. England - expected goals (xG) | 59,310,217 | 59,383,602 |
886bedfcbb9eff30e00347a49fd0a04b3a4fce9b | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0x8617f0ec3b1bb510d731572ef786a6349727878a446f033e5e16d080f5ffdeb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | no | 0 | republican-vp-supplemental | Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 59,324,996 | 59,324,996 |
7747c48716cd4a659998587444345ac2ea3ded68 | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0x9e9071636d176562592a98dfede865385ba0cff7864cfa01f0479ca6e9e26e1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | yes | 0.000018 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 59,325,024 | 59,325,024 |
1d1c19dca3ed16f536b892cd64faf1a55553f429 | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0xbdfeeb596891d9f498540c0aff203987c837693a805ac9e4d171aae1d2ee715f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | no | 0.000008 | fact-check-was-it-a-rogue-actor | Fact Check: Was it a rogue actor? | 59,345,189 | 59,387,815 |
a32deb7cb7d2b637d5394bb6c74d00af6333f7b3 | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0x4ace3069bbf3ef4a280ef6b75c7f283c6617b4cdbde4067700afd5b06a16bc66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | no | 0.333333 | donald-trumps-ear-bandaged-during-rnc-convention | Trump's ear bandaged during RNC convention? | 59,366,344 | 59,382,782 |
98998b4b98a6c0f7daea57099b69ae073bdb70db | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0x6bbc2d11a5fafb81229c5f0106c0e76263b5cdc064e63e026444d19b75251eed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | no | 0.000251 | will-trump-announce-vp-pick-on-thursday | Will Trump announce VP pick on Thursday? | 59,381,568 | 59,381,568 |
26d496346dc4ede363d05c34cbef567d95ab0898 | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0xcdcbe22d75154a6063c32f42319a56d51b72cbc51952f574f0477af36dbcfe93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | yes | 1 | republican-vp-nominee | Will Mike Pence win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 59,426,955 | 59,426,955 |
0c2bb9c80f1bd79c9c2054f11e18bfed86c3d5b1 | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0xbddba403daa24e83f405d2d5fcc0e666c66cb8fd5423368602c963c06c759adc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | no | 0 | twisters-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Twisters' gross between $56m and $61m opening weekend? | 59,460,415 | 59,460,415 |
ec1b61f485ad34605c4062bb10a417602649eb0a | 0x06da0e15d7ee358149e120bf4f18441d00d26cac | 0xbddf0dade2d66c4f9e56a2e6dc66765fb949c603e62d5a9ea8b79b8f76839e50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ENS win the most seats in the French election? | Event: which-coalition-wins-most-seats-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will NFP win the mo... | no | 0.003926 | biden-nominated-by-virtual-roll-call-before-dnc | Biden nominated before Democratic convention? | 59,469,442 | 59,469,442 |
805b5a5fff1015beeca6b2110a0677e3642acf8f | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x9dba2fe7d9a39b618f784fd48c4a2ea8dab4dca319b4de3e37505af9e3b83389 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith
Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | price | 0 | ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | 73,344,282 | 73,348,793 |
3ab114a8ca0225635bd8c2acbf141a093ea93177 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x2da5c18a6f444091ee76b97c81ba8e986edacd3538140f6ec64b3f6aba30f61b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima
Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confiden... | lima | 0 | ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | 73,348,868 | 73,355,451 |
34cf29390df64bc6ced7ab956247b9db60eea055 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xad115c3e2e2074b55f84c7b96d4cc1cb632e533779669811d0e49374b14172aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano
Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveir... | dariush | 0 | ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | 73,349,805 | 73,349,805 |
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