sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2e02a1af36e40621a2c84a14c50df974ac4b00c1 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x6e17cacc951efb30614a2da2635db3e993317887fd7794e4ba4aa9e728c03e84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | kara-france | 0 | ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-France | 73,352,156 | 73,352,156 |
ed9bee4ed917c3f2019fd9267400af3cbb7ff787 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xa489a2cf05c78be1aac7d2ca7a5df716719f4a73f55a6df5ff8b54094ba57cba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | royval | 0 | ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | UFC 317: Royval vs. Van | 73,352,156 | 73,355,451 |
53dabbf265f5f6ccdedb9061b68db859e1b161c5 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x1b4461c3dd0a4270af4fe4bc1d65a895fe000c93ec4f2520ed4f26473b073400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | yes | 1 | ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira-method-of-victory | UFC 317: Will Topuria To Win By KO/TKO/DQ? | 73,352,491 | 73,352,838 |
d9877cbdac09fb1bc7661e3ad2a327435e8d99d2 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x30d37a35600da6a89ae631678a397d68d4cf3071f6d0f0b32b0fb396de325a46 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | no | 1 | jake-paul-vs-julio-cesar-chavez-jr | Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.? | 73,360,457 | 73,360,457 |
3455df1f439c6d5576e80c9d9635b499f11c6889 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x9740af10ff1578fb7e125810defb0b164c15c2afda891be81f7d9edf2617e250 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | yes | 1 | jake-paul-vs-chvez-jr-method-of-victory | Will Jake Paul win by points or technical decision? | 73,360,457 | 73,360,457 |
c728b2e714e31568f7d2fc339229fd87a594f895 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xd7c4d54e8f3046263339a4fe1390768243720989e5cd5c71f5b07561d77c5806 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | no | 1 | ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira-method-of-victory | UFC 317: Will Topuria vs. Oliveira end in a draw? | 73,360,457 | 73,360,457 |
f171cfecab7cb18fea48ac662e95aeb35dfcadf8 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xa2daafc4f589103ce1b8ac4f62a92ef106b1ec2efb12d1029051fc5f2d85a90e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,610,695 | 73,610,695 |
d4ef5e4a73d0161b9fbadf353787e7eb2ec756d8 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xc8f33e004d14cff0d9531f0498570850f7d33986101825f637b9676461171f82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | yes | 1 | palmeiras-vs-chelsea-regulation-time | Will Chelsea beat Palmeiras in regulation time? | 73,610,695 | 73,610,695 |
8979448a8c371b06c9e1360347b81d3f789c86a7 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xca1f9d9b706cb740a1403795bd169a33278f2ec8621435545e27ee292721c4b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | yes | 1 | world-test-championship-2nd-test-england-vs-india | Will England vs. India end in a draw? | 73,708,232 | 73,708,232 |
9a4888fcb653b30ab02b2895132c0817a75f30f4 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x6fc189166b7f88195094854290d518f0f8e08692c2bc300a8af44d4bcc0a14bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | yes | 1 | which-continent-wins-fifa-club-world-cup | Will a club from South America win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,756,194 | 73,756,194 |
8e341a5d8ba6d0016dd952fee7f8244b48d3b743 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xea63fe2d1556687e0da00a80639ef49191f0ecc201a26fe97d9ae5697614d410 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-what-country-will-the-champion-club-be-from | Will a club from Brazil win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,756,194 | 73,756,194 |
77d5b463b35e9454afee85348ba020f3307cb6d6 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x63276180dff2062f707fe30e06ab8b1c7d81b0194a2d8b97f176896c96acc19f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | no | 0.090909 | ballon-dor-winner-2025 | Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | 73,948,637 | 77,626,273 |
0bcbe44a3f6c14563bd5a0ca0fab60e4c39bd78b | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x0a1c826adc7e4365b69a1020f311bb830d784c334dafa6db93c22fac2c4ec183 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | gallen | 0 | boxing-sonny-bill-williams-vs-paul-gallen | Boxing: Sonny Bill Williams vs. Paul Gallen | 74,072,575 | 74,072,580 |
affa4f5c80c325b9e0c307746d995d001f0f85ce | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x2c5fdbbde35f61e365627cdecb188be7d609aa4ecf022aee192b334ae7b709ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | cloud9 | 0 | league-of-legends-flyquest-vs-cloud9 | League of Legends: FlyQuest vs. Cloud9 | 74,072,575 | 74,072,580 |
ff2304d76bbe919135864b5bd1b039c195c2d94d | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x3c20614b9fbf039507c37553f705fbf7b10b530808d4b811fbeeaaa38cb7229e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | no | 1 | 2025-open-championship-first-round-leader | Will Mackenzie Hughes be the first round leader at the 2025 Open Championship? | 74,076,404 | 74,076,404 |
bf8ac26062afa63007b3e3d4c3773afdfc1343a9 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x77193f33101ea684ea97f04c75fec9804cc4fd735ece28ee0a42b13af0df9a8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | no | 1 | 2025-open-championship-first-round-leader | Will Aldrich Potgieter be the first round leader at the 2025 Open Championship? | 74,083,527 | 74,083,527 |
434d10c400e9a69fe023248fcf55f2b6bfc9b749 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xe744a235764f3d88ab099592bb2710c9062b6ca8bac00dbe8763e31849384eff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | no | 1 | 2025-open-championship-first-round-leader | Will Adam Scott be the first round leader at the 2025 Open Championship? | 74,083,527 | 74,083,527 |
5ec6e6d1d824ce3f58c0a098e5e430ccaecfdebf | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xef5bda20f011afeec3da4c4d2132c6892824d01b5924f0c752d5293573ac132c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | no | 1 | 2025-open-championship-first-round-leader | Will Guido Migliozzi be the first round leader at the 2025 Open Championship? | 74,083,527 | 74,083,527 |
9f72bb8b1feed7d148f6449dc586f48ae62344dd | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xe79c0a568b612f4f853813d2c9fd98f5eb40290936d4523955d4c8ef1d6c8600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | no | 1 | 2025-open-championship-winner | Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Open Championship? | 74,096,751 | 74,096,751 |
2dc0b301855764750a15ede895b68043285f46a2 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x8e1082ce158c0f1909c5a79e9b7d72019b9a00462c30afc7584fcf3cf091ea25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18? | 74,135,150 | 74,135,150 |
717a49a609a1e170c9ea5e98129b632d507ffb43 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xfd6176f8c9a59105f80e060a77c4099881c5f2d9e0ceab88e55cf978462fab7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | yes | 0.380246 | presidential-election-winner-2028 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 74,189,675 | 74,918,308 |
3a7003be9c6f0a6e29303423a0a101634212f6f6 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x0caf573fbfe964a7ac1de109d1503c78d07216385cd79bf509371a457b48f099 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | no | 1 | open-championship-top-liv-player | Will Jon Rahm have the best finish at the 2025 Open Championship? | 74,207,825 | 74,207,825 |
26333054ceefcb1df69826741fa02699af254f36 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xaa8015088e3c2d0cee325e033d15594b2c38b9d6a6ed37595767a5d42a9049e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | no | 1 | 2025-open-championship-winner | Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 Open Championship? | 74,207,825 | 74,207,825 |
655a3e27110cc20fc02733c74908712e56f5feb7 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x77e2670d95eb00fe59141b91f347614bd888d90664828377ed46dee878faf680 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | no | 1 | cricket-england-vs-india-3rd-test | Will England win the match? | 74,653,045 | 74,653,045 |
0a6778fad132315b469521b2cffc8af2ff90f89c | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x81ad7e9fbbcc2453f468bbe62291d0cf30f3c290fcd9847fa492544ae45c482b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | no | 1 | ufc-fight-night-park-vs-taira-win-method | UFC Fight Night: Will Taira win by KO/TKO/DQ? | 74,876,916 | 74,876,916 |
6f1381ceb1c36dcf4d338b196397948ca454101b | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x1bd8800e4f3ec0e9d55334a05927dc2b8a0b41b69129fbd2b44c2adaf4031d30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | yes | 1 | ufc-fight-night-dolidze-vs-hernandez-win-method | UFC Fight Night: Will Dolidze win by decision? | 75,073,740 | 75,073,740 |
daccff38ad1e312c90d031e72b0cec9a48229bd9 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x4f24322e362cd008bf22c821ef2cbf62bbab43acf14f48584bc9bd936e4af12b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | yes | 1 | ufc-fight-night-park-vs-taira-win-method | UFC Fight Night: Will Park win by submission? | 75,073,740 | 75,073,740 |
489b49b30debf579d2f1308c71962624dbf5d9c5 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x593eadb8a666adf53c6cd4c08a9b800542acb75e8d3ae83e9ee346ff252bab81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Price vs. Smith | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: price | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice:... | yes | 1 | ufc-fight-night-park-vs-taira-win-method | UFC Fight Night: Will Park win by KO/TKO/DQ? | 75,073,740 | 75,073,740 |
e4493d176a15b0960305e5c0d04a4aa7ea77acd6 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x6467aa6cb8f949b92eb892377f9128c714df352ff369dc3ee753e3af3343959b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: lima | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: dariush | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-France | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira... | yes | 1 | ufc-fight-night-dolidze-vs-hernandez-win-method | UFC Fight Night: Will Hernandez win by decision? | 75,073,740 | 75,073,740 |
4b43b6db8cfa11763600e602ae0db5e5ffac4e6f | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x6dd7c82f71c80105a449b29b37016bc2004d3a462e0df676249bab92546c88fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: dariush | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-France | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: kara-france | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Royval vs. Van | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oli... | yes | 1 | what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on | Will GPT-5 be released on August 6? | 75,073,740 | 75,073,740 |
6af02af4f82bf1cd7245559392a2501188950b28 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x2b923f538f8a8af0f834a3febf78ad4761d69343e2600d1f07e81e6ede14fd58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-France | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: kara-france | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Royval vs. Van | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: royval | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Will Topuria To Win By KO/TKO/DQ? | Event: ufc-317-t... | ruziboev | 0 | ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev | UFC 319: Battle vs. Ruziboev | 75,241,893 | 75,241,893 |
bdd0433248b7798a0859672f4b9690a8c4f8a543 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x9db0896e08b84f0cd0036dae54d81501f0b135b24a3601b525fa88b384cb3054 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Royval vs. Van | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira | Choice: royval | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Will Topuria To Win By KO/TKO/DQ? | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira-method-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match again... | cannonier | 0 | ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev | UFC 319: Cannonier vs. Page | 75,300,346 | 75,878,837 |
c9bb2ea5a2f3023dd17a256bbadbad2fccce07c0 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x9a4c8856fe4da54c371c5d4e6d40a8d7aa6e0ae347104c353e3ca1f6b72e989e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Will Topuria To Win By KO/TKO/DQ? | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira-method-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.? | Event: jake-paul-vs-julio-cesar-chavez-jr | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | murphy | 0 | ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev | UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico | 75,301,685 | 75,314,115 |
4ae03b3b23a784caa987001a17c90d8752f0da3c | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xd5e46d1a5eaa5d2b16d5658907ca32d2ad9a4a0df0616a013ab07f8b1779b964 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.? | Event: jake-paul-vs-julio-cesar-chavez-jr | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win by points or technical decision? | Event: jake-paul-vs-chvez-jr-method-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by decision? | 75,314,115 | 75,314,115 |
9f4517fba95da3871b34c154d339a991a56fd264 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xdcb8c79ccace3d40747c0f9208887929532245b82fcdf6d948c9167e61cc6c48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Paul win by points or technical decision? | Event: jake-paul-vs-chvez-jr-method-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Will Topuria vs. Oliveira end in a draw? | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira-method-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by KO/TKO/DQ? | 75,314,115 | 75,314,115 |
3dc617cdcf001e42ac0a0ba1fb7453c9d782366b | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xe22809f226b40ba880eaa102198ffcb793913b274d8cefd46a90222677f6aaf5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Will Topuria vs. Oliveira end in a draw? | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira-method-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea beat P... | no | 1 | ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | UFC 319: Will Du Plessis vs. Chimaev end in a draw? | 75,314,115 | 75,314,115 |
c8c5d7869a375689285c2519e2f16b52d60cd316 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xf232b565995e4b3a3e7fa6cef775eeff1cecd20ad7c013cb9fc8dadabfe279a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea beat Palmeiras in regulation time? | Event: palmeiras-vs-chelsea-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England vs. India end in... | yes | 0.044776 | presidential-election-winner-2028 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 75,380,561 | 75,380,561 |
f67a3924723036a9c53e745efbb3e660d21d8f51 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x18b0545ddb55a3f8345f7e875fc774eb789321bdc309d078e6b4c29174e6dfc6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Palmeiras in regulation time? | Event: palmeiras-vs-chelsea-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England vs. India end in a draw? | Event: world-test-championship-2nd-test-england-vs-india | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a club ... | no | 1 | how-long-will-donald-trump-and-volodymyr-zelenskyy-shake-hands-for | Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds? | 75,384,136 | 75,384,136 |
2000480cad35678c3bcfabf7df47398aa4bfbec0 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x8a74ec9f9a072b080347eeca55e4b2845971f07084e82a0dda292bee8b18c765 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England vs. India end in a draw? | Event: world-test-championship-2nd-test-england-vs-india | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a club from South America win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: which-continent-wins-fifa-club-world-cup | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 0 | wyoming-launches-a-usd-stablecoin-in-2025 | Wyoming launches a USD stablecoin in 2025? | 75,431,922 | 75,878,837 |
898cc937860dfaa228ac98523d5ffe0ff6bda03c | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x568050d5516c3a20bcf68bc8fe2596b76ab2e9a0efdeef34211ba79473b8f775 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a club from South America win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: which-continent-wins-fifa-club-world-cup | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a club from Brazil win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-what-country-will-the-champion-club-be-from | ... | maheshate | 0 | ufc-fight-night-walker-vs-zhang | UFC Fight Night: Maheshate vs. Young | 75,500,068 | 75,878,836 |
becac285b611f9b6566db88345e8796b5cabe991 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x35ae72ecea68142496d891d6b74c3ea7069e8ac7b066542298691b43d74da891 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a club from Brazil win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-what-country-will-the-champion-club-be-from | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0909090909... | no | 0.649441 | will-putin-meet-with-zelenskyy-in-2025 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? | 75,500,319 | 75,500,319 |
76e47e7e652bac50d7188de63a8106a9ef9373ae | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xa56afcf5b2db4531f9f339edc04acc9c29a777127b79164cf8850556d164f5ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.09090909090909091
2. Question: Boxing: Sonny Bill Williams vs. Paul Gallen | Event: boxing-sonny-bill-williams-vs-paul-gallen | Choice: gallen | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: League of ... | no | 0 | where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-393 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? | 75,500,319 | 75,500,319 |
264bf23ba8ed34105cd2b1726d8b38d1bad504bf | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xd02b1683ad65c0ecba62b17abb529fd9b930747d20b8c0a1e1e8e32da3f81f2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Boxing: Sonny Bill Williams vs. Paul Gallen | Event: boxing-sonny-bill-williams-vs-paul-gallen | Choice: gallen | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: League of Legends: FlyQuest vs. Cloud9 | Event: league-of-legends-flyquest-vs-cloud9 | Choice: cloud9 | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Mackenzie H... | no | 0 | ufc-fight-night-parlay-card-442 | UFC Fight Night: Walker and Ortega | 75,503,433 | 75,560,920 |
0230717379bc05d628d0b60f66b298504bfdfd98 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x6d20fbec2da69596c8c350ba463fb1132ec47a34c89d71d0294ca75b6c419339 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: League of Legends: FlyQuest vs. Cloud9 | Event: league-of-legends-flyquest-vs-cloud9 | Choice: cloud9 | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Mackenzie Hughes be the first round leader at the 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-first-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | bolivia-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will another person win the Bolivian election? | 75,538,472 | 75,538,472 |
ff6938751f882dc0d5c10005f012a9c3c9b0393d | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x46dc560a09f07d8b6989bec851262e4df92ea0dd909631cf987afc88c8b8d729 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mackenzie Hughes be the first round leader at the 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-first-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aldrich Potgieter be the first round leader at the 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-first-r... | no | 0 | will-mrbeast-raise-40m-for-clean-water-by-august-31 | Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? | 75,766,859 | 77,626,267 |
3c10d317e159a57d2ad08eedf743f861cf576286 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x7f4ea5e6f54df4b8bc305dada5866d673eb4887a273ebc31df5401f8f4a9d997 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aldrich Potgieter be the first round leader at the 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-first-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Adam Scott be the first round leader at the 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-first-round-l... | yes | 1 | ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | UFC 319: Will Du Plessis vs. Chimaev be decided any other way? | 75,878,837 | 75,878,837 |
b6c014a5db2544b6f80d9b4f91cb01aab3bf4a18 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x0403f396d6e190d2bcc7f54bcef6d7a77ae44768b69caf4aa2d7095ffb02237c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Adam Scott be the first round leader at the 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-first-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Guido Migliozzi be the first round leader at the 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-first-round-lea... | no | 1 | how-much-money-will-mrbeast-raise-by-midnight | Will MrBeast raise less than $40m by midnight? | 75,954,579 | 75,954,579 |
6b2b2cd89cf16f3ee359670a1de5fb447990f099 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x2699956a36de7344182df190de40628fcf831e1d9915ccb1c64863cd627d729e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Guido Migliozzi be the first round leader at the 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-first-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 0.76298 | mrbeast-raises-40m-on | Will MrBeast raise 40m on Sunday August 31? | 75,954,579 | 77,626,273 |
9f0b9736b76f41d938644a58a566b8a7ec5d3bcc | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x0ee34fe9bbb1cbe52bb631e02af56fe4595b4a09f7a5e32069ad6eb7da18f98d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the... | no | 1 | national-rugby-league-winner | Will the Manly Sea Eagles win the 2025 National Rugby League? | 76,108,261 | 76,108,261 |
d233323b4c7aabe52031ad4cae566043ba704f60 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xf872dc9e2259ca338ca94d42de13afb22c62daf34cfce5af81ac76a7534267a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2028 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.38024601075918296
3. Question: Wi... | no | 1 | national-rugby-league-winner | Will the Dolphins win the 2025 National Rugby League? | 76,108,261 | 76,108,261 |
3465e27976ccf85835e4ea7160d7a9ff146823ae | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x8bdb3c839213d2dd7b0493d27350f1b67c450af7a29066b65ea244ab114d2a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2028 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.38024601075918296
2. Question: Will Jon Rahm have the best finish at the 2025 Open Championship? | Event: open-championship-top-liv-player | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | 2025-us-open-winner-m | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? | 76,163,715 | 76,163,776 |
8400cee3ea8f998ccf81eb2d461cd93a62432399 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xa023ddb9c47624eab56b0706e50044badb124dfc19b47427e2772fdf261dcc1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jon Rahm have the best finish at the 2025 Open Championship? | Event: open-championship-top-liv-player | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | national-rugby-league-winner | Will the New Zealand Warriors win the 2025 National Rugby League? | 76,399,435 | 76,399,435 |
9664380087f48ae1f4b4d16e7c6ce4568e49effa | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x3c9c3e8bc1eb6238dbcc3e08964668d0f0dce5fcff83639d39740e26bc18d616 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England win the match? | Event: cricket-england-vs-india-3rd-test | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: UFC Fight Night: Will Taira win by KO/TK... | no | 1 | national-rugby-league-winner | Will the Sydney Roosters win the 2025 National Rugby League? | 76,411,240 | 76,411,240 |
d37437ec2210ae291ed186a215e7e1476274e086 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xe7856aaa85d2e0eceea0a6c2de7c040fda1d6d689797f75aeaaa0f4773d41247 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England win the match? | Event: cricket-england-vs-india-3rd-test | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC Fight Night: Will Taira win by KO/TKO/DQ? | Event: ufc-fight-night-park-vs-taira-win-method | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: UFC Fight Night: Will Dolidze win by d... | puelles | 0 | noche-ufc-lopes-vs-silva | Noche UFC: Puelles vs. Silva | 76,414,331 | 77,626,271 |
5f75fc1ca58ce2d0b5ca3311a701d747f67206ff | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xdc54df020320554481b3c4f9eb23e769c8e8cb44c99eeb06d6bcad1cd35b2315 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night: Will Taira win by KO/TKO/DQ? | Event: ufc-fight-night-park-vs-taira-win-method | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC Fight Night: Will Dolidze win by decision? | Event: ufc-fight-night-dolidze-vs-hernandez-win-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: UFC ... | gastelum | 0 | noche-ufc-lopes-vs-silva | Noche UFC: Gastelum vs. Stoltzfus | 76,416,424 | 76,418,501 |
f18b69266816e2519c6258f30da51c8ebcdf9b62 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x0fd4650a34b8034fd9667bb34af1b210ae7031ed6427d9935193705b432194e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night: Will Dolidze win by decision? | Event: ufc-fight-night-dolidze-vs-hernandez-win-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC Fight Night: Will Park win by submission? | Event: ufc-fight-night-park-vs-taira-win-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: UFC... | garcia | 0 | noche-ufc-lopes-vs-silva | Noche UFC: Garcia vs. Gordon | 76,418,501 | 76,418,501 |
433b8923e9f67d1316055a240f064a8163b77394 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xbfc0408a44036d42922984da504d1aeeb1df57c98b32528828bb7695a9ffbc70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night: Will Park win by submission? | Event: ufc-fight-night-park-vs-taira-win-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC Fight Night: Will Park win by KO/TKO/DQ? | Event: ufc-fight-night-park-vs-taira-win-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: UFC Fight Ni... | font | 0 | noche-ufc-lopes-vs-silva | Noche UFC: Font vs. Martinez | 76,418,501 | 76,418,501 |
4211e01a56a041519d613a31edac132fe9f20344 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x1b042c562ceb1fc2bbd5240aee74532d879ef38170cff22301a0c0327f29f3b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night: Will Park win by KO/TKO/DQ? | Event: ufc-fight-night-park-vs-taira-win-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC Fight Night: Will Hernandez win by decision? | Event: ufc-fight-night-dolidze-vs-hernandez-win-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 1 | boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by KO/TKO? | 76,464,435 | 76,464,435 |
00ade40b93eac16dca6d00b6538cb014b0914c9b | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x92c89c9e07f3df68388c6b58197f9157f504510d779036151ce23d8f0708f4e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night: Will Hernandez win by decision? | Event: ufc-fight-night-dolidze-vs-hernandez-win-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will GPT-5 be released on August 6? | Event: what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: UFC 319: Battle v... | no | 1 | boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Boxing: Will Canelo Álvarez win by KO/TKO? | 76,464,435 | 76,464,435 |
993588dfca426778221663715e540a50ac43622b | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x6c3d5fba5442f3e725eb89b7cffcc341ca3105cddaac09c1e4bc8e7010f0fe40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GPT-5 be released on August 6? | Event: what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 319: Battle vs. Ruziboev | Event: ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev | Choice: ruziboev | Confidence: 3.680981459595775e-08
3. Question: UFC 319: Cannonier vs. Page | Ev... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,579,838 | 76,579,838 |
37f5047fda6d4b9b743bd27bf865cdab5bd37164 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xd189af84a1c6c02b579796a1eb08af597232d33455c42d9c0f5c98eccb4292cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 319: Battle vs. Ruziboev | Event: ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev | Choice: ruziboev | Confidence: 3.680981459595775e-08
2. Question: UFC 319: Cannonier vs. Page | Event: ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev | Choice: cannonier | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico | Event: ufc-3... | yes | 0.115615 | lord-miles-completes-40-day-water-fast-in-the-dessert | Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? | 76,680,585 | 76,851,284 |
9e01c2846262adf05eb90d747719d56b6b660d75 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xa0fd1a46d682fb2b4d9119cf622ba0d334399f39aae689d97e0dca9ec3110eda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 319: Cannonier vs. Page | Event: ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev | Choice: cannonier | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico | Event: ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev | Choice: murphy | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by decision? | Event: ufc-319-du-ple... | yes | 0.674486 | nothing-ever-happens-crypto-edition | Nothing Ever Happens: Crypto Edition | 76,850,521 | 76,850,521 |
a879bf2f58c03600b62f1a13f3218907714de0ba | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xc393b8b23ae028f55146e6ea0a48b142002b9f237a3c6e7dd2f933bdf5277e0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico | Event: ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev | Choice: murphy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by decision? | Event: ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by KO/TKO/DQ? | E... | no | 1 | national-rugby-league-winner | Will the Penrith Panthers win the 2025 National Rugby League? | 77,013,144 | 77,013,144 |
43689e7cf19ac67586a436968c4616842224db0d | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x6d250918ac8353e8aedd848e1c0934c0feb8ad1be05676f19414def48d4a914a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by decision? | Event: ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by KO/TKO/DQ? | Event: ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: UFC 319: Will Du Pless... | no | 0 | trump-strikes-another-drug-boat-by-sep-30 | Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30? | 77,147,187 | 77,168,301 |
910b93c43980e27962f06214f817c4d7fc0004cd | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xdf9fb7b118aff573cce60a3f5b92730a304bddc27eac03e9ffc722f7c397803e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by KO/TKO/DQ? | Event: ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 319: Will Du Plessis vs. Chimaev end in a draw? | Event: ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alexa... | diniz | 0 | ufc-fight-night-oliveira-vs-gamrot | Diniz vs. Pinto | 77,431,689 | 77,431,689 |
421f1edc32bb70bd72d98f9b94644db337326911 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x4668b63cb67ab4c34184b770186a947e4431d26d71ec8793f889628250f628bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 319: Will Du Plessis vs. Chimaev end in a draw? | Event: ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2028 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.04477... | no | 1 | when-will-israel-announce-ceasefire | Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9? | 77,441,659 | 77,441,659 |
958f5d6023fe2ce0afec0648d446a08869adaa16 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xd2a91b606f6817904ccc9bbd4fbf5e92ceca98bfd4fb72e5b11eb7fad0513b00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2028 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.04477611940298507
2. Question: Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds? | Event: how-long-will-donald-trump-and-volodymyr-zele... | no | 1 | nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | 77,491,056 | 77,491,056 |
d2299e8f4ff1113bcfa5972ff3dd7b911bac36c9 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x200369a7fc4dad910665c5a77e1c0c0d16237f79c637928bf0c5112cac2db708 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds? | Event: how-long-will-donald-trump-and-volodymyr-zelenskyy-shake-hands-for | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Wyoming launches a USD stablecoin in 2025? | Event: wyoming-launches-a-usd-stablecoin-in-2025 | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | 77,497,226 | 77,497,226 |
e67d78ff38bcf1cfc9d682fa1f2881c2948d4b7a | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x9598121e10e858ed909a9de4f39977381ffe728ebeaa54cdddb14f795ed953e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wyoming launches a USD stablecoin in 2025? | Event: wyoming-launches-a-usd-stablecoin-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC Fight Night: Maheshate vs. Young | Event: ufc-fight-night-walker-vs-zhang | Choice: maheshate | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Putin meet with Zelen... | yes | 1 | baycurrent-classic-2025-round-3-leader | Will Xander Schauffele lead after Round 3 of the Baycurrent Classic 2025? | 77,538,668 | 77,538,668 |
9654599dcf76b6735eed1247452cca97d3bfab8d | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x47cc76223980c62ecb9e5390a127a4bfacdb5e1d8763b34219137d06e032683d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night: Maheshate vs. Young | Event: ufc-fight-night-walker-vs-zhang | Choice: maheshate | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? | Event: will-putin-meet-with-zelenskyy-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6494412984052905
3. Question: Will Zelenskyy an... | yes | 1 | how-much-money-will-mrbeast-raise-by-midnight | Will MrBeast raise $50m or more by midnight? | 77,626,267 | 77,626,267 |
a9a7a467366cc39d57aa1a3d86085a38525ec24f | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xb9ec4394b00a43b7fecca64fd351f714ee6ee8bb241c2e04ecf89f0eeeb32cd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? | Event: will-putin-meet-with-zelenskyy-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6494412984052905
2. Question: Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? | Event: where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-393 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC Fight Night: ... | yes | 1 | ballon-dor-winner-2025 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | 77,626,271 | 77,626,271 |
1abe7a6fb82f0f2b6c7f5952b9078a3d7e033176 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xc432af9280482e26f71cb60e0f6f73b302cecb95371e1b076b99da1daa240211 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? | Event: where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-393 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC Fight Night: Walker and Ortega | Event: ufc-fight-night-parlay-card-442 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will another person win the Bolivian electio... | no | 1 | when-will-israel-announce-ceasefire | Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8? | 77,626,271 | 77,626,271 |
4beeb855e06f76e32c18fe3738699726895ecbe1 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0xe7d8b6fc64739a06325415b8c9fc15d7092df665e29345d0f285bdfd1d2b803f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night: Walker and Ortega | Event: ufc-fight-night-parlay-card-442 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will another person win the Bolivian election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast raise $40M ... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-ars-2025-08-31 | Will Liverpool vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | 77,626,271 | 77,626,271 |
fdf5a93b3b870d7bc14bfe8ddb784d2534b8dfd9 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x20033dd4e9bbd7c5f779ef1222c9a7d02e5abed5398103c9475b34962dbf3af3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another person win the Bolivian election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? | Event: will-mrbeast-raise-40m-for-clean-water-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-vil-2025-08-31 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-08-31? | 77,626,273 | 77,626,273 |
85b4904654535b4f2878ef19cfa561436d38d60f | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x417f9f21e57bf167317759744bb1e2f40a423494610deabbe0e4351b1bfd1348 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? | Event: will-mrbeast-raise-40m-for-clean-water-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 319: Will Du Plessis vs. Chimaev be decided any other way? | Event: ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 1 | boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Boxing: Will Canelo vs. Crawford end in a Draw? | 77,626,273 | 77,626,273 |
39e7f3dcfcc4498616a02adf886300132f057d50 | 0x06e8cb40376ff9f06d926e71a0740821f1914675 | 0x7ea0202ef9f9b34300acd0503b432a70c86c35b77ae7c38007ff0021479cc52a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 319: Will Du Plessis vs. Chimaev be decided any other way? | Event: ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast raise less than $40m by midnight? | Event: how-much-money-will-mrbeast-raise-by-midnight | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Boxing: Will Canelo Álvarez win by Points or Decision? | 77,626,273 | 77,626,273 |
b03ae3c926b856de1c4f969dcd46ae4f2c815b54 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x029f8593a7328191e221dbb926d42d98d04c91852e2866a5cacbe7752f49576c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the fight end in Round 8?
Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Will the fight end in Round 8? | 64,350,102 | 64,350,102 |
1d360afc4b074e63a2e17c4af42739350eb04ee5 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xb41303fef1fad2465522ed3d9a0d26d7593733e3b567d7888b981056b33865df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner?
Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output str... | yes | 1 | jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | 64,350,102 | 64,350,102 |
6d7c8e21800576e8edc12a5f749f7a854f8d1a59 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x8e7e0c60fd518fc0d2d9d2a002d532fab015a3f454b72816911ec965b97d548f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: SpaceX Starship launch today... | no | 1 | spacex-starship-launch-tomorrow | SpaceX Starship launch today? | 64,669,809 | 64,669,809 |
8a0c7161df66a7f5239ba590167f4ca58ca93266 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x07904ab2c92f575593f7bdeeba7b8c5549f6ce88452c5d19ac9ca4f6df463356 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | mrbeast-x-ronaldo-video-views-on-day-1-nov-30 | Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get between 75m-100m views on day 1? | 64,990,947 | 64,990,947 |
09a7147112e59cbfd48999c3260243cf83267956 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xfbf65e1fe1730ed9651f141ec8eca77d73f2770f1d7e3fb597f880e6418c9d38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | mrbeast-x-ronaldo-video-views-on-day-1-nov-30 | Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get between 50m-75m views on day 1? | 64,990,947 | 64,990,947 |
0aaccc160b0c0bb1bbc3e68ef93b9a3b21984ea0 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x3c5bb5fbb7bf64d4c44d3ba8d9cc86eb6d70a3c1b2bd74b2f5cff687c852869a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-7 | Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 7 of the World Chess Championship | 65,148,846 | 65,148,846 |
0b08bbce0b2d99a2a73f580a0891732e74651cde | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xf4b2ef892285b4f7644ff3b327ee3bbfe6fd97e59a4750603df6ba60c4bc2f50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-7 | Will Ding Liren win Game 7 of the World Chess Championship? | 65,148,846 | 65,148,846 |
4428b79d51baf1b063c463ec75092710f7f155f9 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xc9ff63a2da6e8e6a6b38a7f561135d2a05411f2a32ef4a0f3093a2ff712a1300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-11 | Will Ding Liren win Game 11 of the World Chess Championship? | 65,231,356 | 65,231,356 |
13fd9740e8ec187f627a086ae1b211ba5bafa902 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x05786e6d52d97ec9634b465588b94966b64636968789517d475ab27be4367d84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | time-2024-person-of-the-year | Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | 65,679,427 | 65,679,427 |
e7c50de2513facdfd676a8cdcb40a94ab9006413 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x0fa0ed2dadf63ccaac0aa7251815e3ffc3df64eeb22726851b5d7468766b5ff5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | time-2024-person-of-the-year | Will Joe Biden be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | 65,679,427 | 65,679,427 |
854ead64b44682bb33d258c1d67eb9658fbdf99e | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x9cdb8707a344109ad41bda7d3d3602fc85a693c20a60cd18b25ccc7b7be17fb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | time-2024-person-of-the-year | Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | 65,679,427 | 65,679,427 |
afd93874a49a843085fa9123eec513753bcbad1b | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xa9c74134d3aa50ae30b967b0a2f1fc00f055bcc1d9c9d35e8d9e48ab0869cd0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | no | 1 | time-2024-person-of-the-year | Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | 65,679,427 | 65,679,427 |
a474b491a8acf60eb6d81841064124011537115e | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x5e8e76d64e34a7ee419749f75aa7907e59eb4029d196a4b1a9cfe2a0ad5020da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-dc-on-inauguration-day | Will the high in Washington DC be between 26-27°F on January 20? | 66,964,930 | 66,964,930 |
aa469ed7b9614df9303e495c5614a8afbd2e7f1e | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x8211aa5dfc7351d918321bff5c7b87427e735b1c234002259809c70c5c9af2cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | no | 1 | dogecoin-above-0pt36-on-january-10 | Dogecoin above $0.36 on January 10? | 67,095,438 | 67,095,438 |
4809cac1ba24cd780d6a7944f3af1edba05ae79f | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xce1d713317ab0cf909a3fa17fdecfde1366dbaee59047ecd0d656831cccfc727 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | fide-world-blitz-champion | Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | 67,095,438 | 67,095,438 |
4912c378df0ae8a9b8ff68bd1208cb3ad84bb0a6 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x0c604b56be17edd0593facc44b7c45eaa91f89d632e1b4d8a0a05213b3274f51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-dc-on-inauguration-day | Will the high in Washington DC be between 28-29°F on January 20? | 67,095,440 | 67,095,440 |
62284d168e1f1d460aec9256d0faee6347a864c1 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x78c09772610b7a66255ae38b179da58beeb0e9f8b8c90faea80c47d7fc1e2586 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-oval-office-interview | Will Trump say "Hegseth" during Fox News Oval Office interview? | 67,095,442 | 67,095,442 |
b0de10e1ca52c153a6c2af4e4114d56d83c07194 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x8566865c2f3a559a5b58e045289cd6437ad1d5437fee535b26d18d3b6b950afc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | 67,095,442 | 67,095,442 |
e73c7b554e6da633bef117b5096b6e65ee269fef | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xb2b5c2e18ad5e98ad571e3da70ad24ace6a0edacf7e3458e2ffdcd9e62b6090d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | fide-world-blitz-champion | Will Hans Niemann win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | 67,095,442 | 67,095,442 |
8a917059e91a0d58c68bbf476ae9a81f5f6c49af | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x0c0fbd8b82167afa7d8549d04d9e8f7accb3ae0e93395935ca7c2c03977f4760 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | no | 1 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | Southampton wins the Premier League? | 67,141,460 | 67,141,460 |
3cc706b2edd4f74ec3032a25c18bbd39cf509dd9 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xc5bb8aabf50ca7230c63be0a900fe0ac4018f36ab6dd0aeebd9e59beaf08c415 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | belarus-presidential-election | Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | 67,248,183 | 67,248,183 |
84f8dbeb5fc43ee81bcdaf8344cb686ad4a385b2 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xbcd34b95707ac9c083583e0d1bf615c75bd47a53e11646c2267e4a4ea3886316 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | was-the-cybertruck-bombing-a-lone-wolf-attack | Was the Cybertruck bombing a lone wolf attack? | 67,951,314 | 67,951,314 |
73474aa5985488ec7280353d594d52ae0628223f | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x395af4268a3e0155ff7662077f4e8fc8090165a18d6dae6a9916e28ee792f00e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $2b and $2.5b on Feb 21? | 69,779,934 | 69,779,934 |
bf427a0b1ab88d3a2f58c40fabab52c4c1171af6 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x4597d4ae9637dfe02be195f3c1e6fd252a0399f079bc7c3b9c1d6dee731324b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $2.5b and $3b on Feb 21? | 69,779,934 | 69,779,934 |
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