sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
c1ffe343aa57d23171de78b2aa863012b14ed702 | 0x07849fbb31d997c7ba62e13fcc5d31b0688af127 | 0x2142c381b468e22a47326402186eded029f9ff6336ee30cc0c6eecce993be6a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance? | Event: ne... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-9-233 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1500 on May 9? | 71,555,714 | 71,555,714 |
86a9bcaab9bff0cd5dd0f4b2f629b7cb8bf9ebf6 | 0x07849fbb31d997c7ba62e13fcc5d31b0688af127 | 0xcd886d28bf583ef7a2f77c6f51ce7cdfc98d0dd5f8371d32215cf4b0b36ee19a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance? | Event: ne... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-9 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? | 71,555,714 | 71,555,714 |
2d89d8e3332c2fe53d2cb7859c37f1881d14971b | 0x07849fbb31d997c7ba62e13fcc5d31b0688af127 | 0x1bd048df857bd05875799aff88b2bd1d3bfa37a2a43a8da75436e3ee424d18de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance? | Event: ne... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-may-30 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $200 on May 30? | 73,399,762 | 73,399,762 |
bbee4a61cf0e3699bd5092112a50bd253e4b20dc | 0x07849fbb31d997c7ba62e13fcc5d31b0688af127 | 0x3f7d25f7786926ed42438002dc117203068aa062b2a7b46a5e8a38a2944a6145 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance? | Event: ne... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | 73,399,762 | 73,399,762 |
6a26adf9b1ca399b54828982420bd34de5f22ca4 | 0x07849fbb31d997c7ba62e13fcc5d31b0688af127 | 0x18378694daadf973254de6ee64851fc93515b5ac9aca4448223e048c98c09a40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance? | Event: ne... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $114K on May 30? | 73,399,763 | 73,399,763 |
7492b22fdef36eb5180d343c59eb18d58ea4b733 | 0x07849fbb31d997c7ba62e13fcc5d31b0688af127 | 0xa6b04d96664574bb4c34b737c5d133438178d733d01b9ac5b5c4e41a285aed36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance? | Event: ne... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-may-29-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 29 at 5 PM ET? | 73,399,763 | 73,399,763 |
180c1c443ecfcadd7dbd850965cee2f7c1b50e2d | 0x07849fbb31d997c7ba62e13fcc5d31b0688af127 | 0x3d7c7d5dff80d333e68d53491633efdddb239028161b8c780f0fd3b587521a7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance? | Event: ne... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | 73,839,548 | 73,839,548 |
3ccec03ecdf8b1f7a4c2af52b14664953ff1d42b | 0x07849fbb31d997c7ba62e13fcc5d31b0688af127 | 0x8e6ddbf284857189f50b314b4ed6c71eb2bd376332649f1e2c97395af2b309bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance? | Event: ne... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-july-1-488 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2200 on July 1? | 73,839,548 | 73,839,548 |
b9516df1572b2485cc4697a889172a752e0bc78d | 0x07849fbb31d997c7ba62e13fcc5d31b0688af127 | 0x5cbdd3130d5c4cdfbeceee18f88e0499b2b2271f3dcbec7d74512c6a594e940b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance? | Event: ne... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-july-11 | Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on July 11? | 74,233,761 | 74,233,761 |
66a8d11d30bdad7b1e9d061d6eaf5efc353de07b | 0x07849fbb31d997c7ba62e13fcc5d31b0688af127 | 0xa525778b564c333a2f6eb5bd974c97f8f8117cb1d26e46c1996923d08f2b3c29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance? | Event: ne... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-11-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $110K on July 11 at 5PM ET? | 74,233,761 | 74,233,761 |
32b1b9c6e1d7831472cdae33e4b020b1febcef30 | 0x07849fbb31d997c7ba62e13fcc5d31b0688af127 | 0xebcade5a42fa41d75c2b4efd193ad4a45f176363bd57c4d763de3d10c6ca9db7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance? | Event: ne... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-july-11-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2700 on July 11 at 5PM ET? | 74,233,761 | 74,233,761 |
7307b1e08e29b8f652d7ac936c9e6447eeed40d7 | 0x07849fbb31d997c7ba62e13fcc5d31b0688af127 | 0x035f275b202a5df2cb411991ace13d03967e6ffce95690395e91b3a4f77ca69e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance? | Event: ne... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-july-21-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on July 21 at 5PM ET? | 74,396,275 | 74,396,275 |
2d1b9317c0702b45fd355e0261fad7b6e8c59b79 | 0x07849fbb31d997c7ba62e13fcc5d31b0688af127 | 0xc574d94d719181516c1d01cbb240ec9345e6b3c420d9a9fedb5fd32c3aa303b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance? | Event: ne... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $122K and $123K on July 21? | 74,396,275 | 74,396,275 |
629ae8821756ad9ba43184fb299246e8c8c95cf9 | 0x07849fbb31d997c7ba62e13fcc5d31b0688af127 | 0x28310cec5ab316cb37f28ceaeea482e07cfbb8c49695d47553c0fdb8b961eb52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance? | Event: ne... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $120K on July 25? | 74,631,755 | 74,631,755 |
353025842f6b45c89f8c3fd1e1dc523aecd12dd9 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x162cc3116b0bca7596fe36955b51eb4b65f68ff695f8a4f1b556e5b5d1d33672 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?
Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | 66,391,457 | 66,391,457 |
3996d6f84f2ac2d21cf7b6c07bdba327d793282d | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x66b3b3bbf5758d3cc69ebfc45137c5d17e612046d972d0b5d512c02bb1823865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06?
Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice"... | no | 1 | epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | 66,391,457 | 66,391,457 |
f323df0b7f8aadd906a9ff22db2b2d321c7ddadf | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xb09c37ecf1457fb815570d80416b9753589f6be295c6bc7d3f49f396f3b6c671 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10?
Even... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,399,848 | 66,399,848 |
3ae72652bf40012b03d431cd62f8308b7e289ded | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xef6ea164960f5b95e806878602efa96ae14b14f10b6e5e0d0352d7a1ccc29d29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,403,020 | 66,403,020 |
d31cd3a15237586381ff0565a7bed223199cd8ee | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x1286284a8f591a4de2a32bcbdc5df71e4976fdd4c7ddc5638c01d0f349e0e273 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | yes | 1 | carabao-cup-semifinal-arsenal-vs-newcastle | Will Newcastle beat Arsenal? | 66,430,845 | 66,430,845 |
6114d44fd772438c297f025b809b1612353489fe | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xbefa3e713d9478dc4c307a472145d78ae6b669a491ef7dfe24e88c5b59515705 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | carabao-cup-semifinal-arsenal-vs-newcastle | Will the match between Arsenal and Newcastle end in a draw? | 66,430,845 | 66,430,845 |
99160dfd314261366899f8ba666a44d99d222da8 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xc2cf843e7690de1ddcdca958e2f9fa36bdf4de896003ead10db7a5f8af9c1ed9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | carabao-cup-semifinal-arsenal-vs-newcastle | Will Arsenal beat Newcastle? | 66,430,845 | 66,430,845 |
48c0b7aec7a365fcae2a1a26df18ae65f51d9dfe | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x4f706ad3a4a7a20f3c2e8d11ba0aeaa87adc4a71f7527a16316d6a81eb435128 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,442,771 | 66,442,771 |
4dc8108adc139b68a1eeca892b349c8200fadcc9 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x6c92932d3bf0bd3237b0ecba372c5f324b1f9019ad8224ae9d66e1c71434ec4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,445,549 | 66,445,549 |
1ae157a010f6d7778fcdc652adbf15e6fe634f36 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x2581b82fb51f4a84abee8d08302fc49c6390afcbd708777fd6554fcc07fd2b35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,465,006 | 66,465,006 |
0c785383e1c0056465a31c928ccf116b90528b2a | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x4fe6a2ecfde621dfa0ebec9b24c5fc6d999323bb5a2e488843eabfa4dfb38e45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | yes | 1 | carabao-cup-semifinal-tottenham-vs-liverpool-leg-1 | Will Tottenham beat Liverpool? | 66,471,327 | 66,471,327 |
40fb8f35c01874472bff30f50248fc957795bda9 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xa6223de270615c58b365330e20e2fffe447ca01772a1868ab4f7dc59fbdda4b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | carabao-cup-semifinal-tottenham-vs-liverpool-leg-1 | Will Liverpool beat Tottenham? | 66,471,327 | 66,471,327 |
30a7120d374486d3c8e0a4c9ecb5c9fe0acf1c01 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x308794564c1a7eb33451adfaacd012fc76a56a2475c163fb6e1491419f4c1fa1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | adrian-dittmann-of-tweets-january-3-10 | Will Dittman tweet between 60 and 69 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,484,433 | 66,484,433 |
c05c79af774529e7a0649355d430ee0929f20836 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xf78c31c6ea7fabeed89ef8411af11f94ed69f66c6ddbd32c88ecdab2634927ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Will Elon tweet less than 550 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,484,853 | 66,484,853 |
86ab185b669d150f2cead2baef695cb839c7e324 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x0b90f0610910a301ec9530891dd5dab83c0bd52abe32d433d316b0c2354e59db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | epl-wol-ast-2025-02-01 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-01? | 67,426,103 | 67,426,103 |
d2e765d67ebe8b7945a6d1e726ccecf42be87098 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x53c134c464324b5da2b28193d2d9b5c6a939d1fff70dc1194f1a9ed7180bdca0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | how-many-people-will-ice-detain-on-january-31 | Will ICE detain less than 600 people on January 31? | 67,426,103 | 67,426,103 |
a6a5b74d29ddef7488c4e3d52c8f7d057e4acae5 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x6282504efc4cb35388f6e90e5518330b293edb3204016bef063fe5b88c2d07e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | how-many-people-will-ice-detain-on-january-31 | Will ICE detain 800-899 people on January 31? | 67,426,103 | 67,426,103 |
3808b6ee28c06ace839df353804d755de392f7bb | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xdb9c6fc5bd4399be25f8b45aac95754405425b32a0dde24cc53ace33e6f15431 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | epl-wol-ast-2025-02-01 | Will Wolves vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? | 67,426,103 | 67,426,103 |
d8710073592417763c14c03a234eadb966d62fe4 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xe53efb9b4a42621a85dbceecc3e4ea2f85f115e3441786eb21f6fe0a0e871b35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | how-many-people-will-ice-detain-on-january-31 | Will ICE detain 1100-1199 people on January 31? | 67,426,103 | 67,426,103 |
65c4dbc72664d2a64d6d070dfcc379c6c5ea1c60 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x6380545004237c576892dc3357ddc2a45d3d819e240dcb8bce6c1c2561279913 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | grammys-best-rb-song | Will "After Hours" by Kehlani win Best R&B Song? | 67,470,802 | 67,470,802 |
97deb404a2d6c40fbf5cbe5857d3802cf232eb83 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x4a7f586c42fa69c573faf4c4f735d7994168fa258bb08511b2e412e03e13523c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | yes | 1 | grammys-best-rap-song | Will "Not Like Us" by Kendrick Lamar win Best Rap Song? | 67,471,087 | 67,471,087 |
f375db1441a465c3a1bfff727eb3b5d2e05233bb | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x325eb8ed13523545347015fcf2ae8f268f1271e2ecd808f43f84da1472312e2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | yes | 0.578947 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 2? | 67,474,122 | 67,474,122 |
4e72734e0015510707eeb8588e85eedefe91743d | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x12ac72451de8585c0a5f57b218798e781a1b2ecee2d073616a8292cbe20812ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | grammys-best-rap-album | Will 'Might Delete Later' win Best Rap Album? | 67,475,971 | 67,475,971 |
6009bbc42397d39e5b547494eccb4e5b58b371d3 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xc943dd2ab74fec5f2eb7ade47393ba76dfba09c749e7ad1caa9e097005d1ed40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | grammys-best-rap-album | Will 'The Death Of Slim Shady (Coup De Grǎce)' win Best Rap Album? | 67,475,971 | 67,475,971 |
b4c8c85a8fe97c46108828c8f938b05b3c1f7784 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xca45be38a4aa29ed19eb24a057f4f2550be394e2ca839cfa80ac5ac7b900f530 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | grammys-best-rap-album | Will 'We Don't Trust You' win Best Rap Album? | 67,475,971 | 67,475,971 |
eb412ece5127ae2ffab757b6d39769c7a2aff5b3 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xf1325bbd55da1e65de564ea8b7e6213c806964d6794191a92ffa4e46fee7822c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | yes | 1 | grammys-best-rap-album | Will 'Alligator Bites Never Heal' win Best Rap Album? | 67,476,642 | 67,476,642 |
4df7f945cdf5872a6123e50945b0a268ccbdc84f | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x2a7e88ed5a70c8cc43eb2a440f549202baf4e59a30cc694b0c12655783c6de16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | grammys-best-country-album | Will 'Higher' win Best Country Album? | 67,477,379 | 67,477,379 |
6e9383545ffe1f55059d3a3cdbbc91721366beeb | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x85ccc33a8a45990e4e758e5cb541b36cf2256a2cdb27cc8790bf5c474c679426 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | grammys-best-country-album | Will 'Whirlwind' win Best Country Album? | 67,477,379 | 67,477,379 |
d31593873d28d7d2aed306ec30f85ef7a5c3ae1c | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xd8ca5b9f772f5b462aadada4c02fc37c800594d877d952ffca6acfa4debf4f9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | yes | 1 | grammys-best-country-album | Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Best Country Album? | 67,477,379 | 67,477,379 |
e0d16e16c81d6a3657d5891fd9a2c55d064d9d00 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x556d3f1c44f3114e3bb906c77288b5c4b1dea37ac64f243afa306775421d4551 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | grammys-best-country-album | Will 'Deeper Well' win Best Country Album? | 67,477,540 | 67,477,540 |
830508521ee2a3cc87aa95c8868a4c2c381eddab | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x05742a26f8a1f176b3fb49e85ca0a61b85be1398f127081b9bff1c7b8b054c11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-mus... | yes | 1 | grammys-best-new-artist | Will Chappell Roan win Best New Artist? | 67,479,013 | 67,479,013 |
a5a0b0935407d91847145f4ffbe219438ec57b2e | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xa8aa5fc4434b3e07052ae4e9c46a8044945cad955a97795b58a7ac449ff461be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Ev... | no | 1 | grammys-best-new-artist | Will Sabrina Carpenter win Best New Artist? | 67,479,013 | 67,479,013 |
d3598c4d9875e3f7c350a49a1fd2ef270281e704 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x09013848a1c034e7052d49da259ae608b790ce8e8d67d58a355af3174e830ec5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle be... | no | 1 | grammys-record-of-the-year | Will 'Now and Then' win Record of the Year? | 67,480,610 | 67,480,610 |
32fb31963e0c89ab424fcc51a1b9760188b55794 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x295170f503bf0fa77277382ccb73401470177f97625facbdfcd24116343b5bac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle beat Arsenal? | Event: carabao-cup-semifinal-arsenal-vs-newcastle | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Arsena... | yes | 1 | grammys-record-of-the-year | Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year? | 67,480,610 | 67,480,610 |
95dbb4f10546a2b58fda402209ee976b4023e2e6 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xa39da3f71125d590dd4fb55b2df552be7d129252224cb2c33c7dc69b58c56f66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle beat Arsenal? | Event: carabao-cup-semifinal-arsenal-vs-newcastle | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Arsenal and Newcastle end in a draw? | Event: carabao-cup-semifinal-arsenal-vs-newcastle | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsena... | no | 1 | grammys-song-of-the-year-2025 | Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of the Year? | 67,481,406 | 67,481,406 |
849589c39077e94679f51ebbb0294e63315ec726 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x01b5d3a30f38fa413aad3c7ac6c25067db7e1ad2f5f71e483529fd200eddc47d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between Arsenal and Newcastle end in a draw? | Event: carabao-cup-semifinal-arsenal-vs-newcastle | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal beat Newcastle? | Event: carabao-cup-semifinal-arsenal-vs-newcastle | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tw... | no | 1 | grammys-song-of-the-year-2025 | Will 'TEXAS HOLD 'EM' win Song of the Year? | 67,481,500 | 67,481,500 |
ce2a60760ad8344c23c449a3e5782000c54934e5 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xd8f6d67870fe6562a45b419587bce08cd761a3fa171e7d932c6c5f71857a05e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal beat Newcastle? | Event: carabao-cup-semifinal-arsenal-vs-newcastle | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 375-399 times ... | no | 1 | grammys-album-of-the-year-2025 | Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year? | 67,481,893 | 67,481,893 |
b6ba5a3291b046f63d461dd9e4900510a942fa71 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x2e87bcd620d1c9f16f82e19f626f39047cbf152018461cb7146df27d981cbf1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 5... | no | 1 | grammys-album-of-the-year-2025 | Will 'BRAT' win Album of the Year? | 67,482,003 | 67,482,003 |
54d54e31f40d83b1248fb27b62f703944b2d0506 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x160b4dffe2d99ac62afbcf7fae8d5544d7218fdf8a8d9e1a4dd6ceb830037500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenh... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-2 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 32°F or below on February 2? | 67,482,343 | 67,482,343 |
6ff54e9bcb282ae7a51ef17081563bf7ac6c001a | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x5a7f530012324d66319236194307ae72b665d40f85e8f60c875dd86f8b3033df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham beat Liverpool? | Event: carabao-cup-semifinal-tottenham-vs-liverpool-leg-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,484,510 | 67,484,510 |
da9bf0667e4bdcd16bbf01b733bfa760c0938c39 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xf31354209369118b24e5d368326e47bf7dcf4eb97925fa72493c876173d6127f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Liverpool? | Event: carabao-cup-semifinal-tottenham-vs-liverpool-leg-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Tottenham? | Event: carabao-cup-semifinal-tottenham-vs-liverpool-leg-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dittman tweet bet... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,498,409 | 67,498,409 |
e92e9f144c8a72fbd5283c198b2552e8a468b154 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xb094d77714fa8f64902c7b2d0694a465cf447a732c822e303ca9915326a9351d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat Tottenham? | Event: carabao-cup-semifinal-tottenham-vs-liverpool-leg-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dittman tweet between 60 and 69 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: adrian-dittmann-of-tweets-january-3-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,501,047 | 67,501,047 |
170b85875f0f66458739a6121745b507653aa1cd | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x21051ba5fe9f277fd225070a252dde3d857f3f464fa986365d07f3a7dfd93a82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dittman tweet between 60 and 69 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: adrian-dittmann-of-tweets-january-3-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 550 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-3 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 3? | 67,504,592 | 67,504,592 |
5ef0f746aa081435c6172bff9a3d7285bfaf528b | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x768e4c42853279eb2992fc46e82c91bd634aa6e5aaea96a16f7fa3ef9ff3213e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 550 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-wol-ast-2025-02-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ICE detain less than 600 peopl... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,505,407 | 67,505,407 |
76896e17303e3b408ef0dd9d82fe2431abe2a248 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x36372e72a96ab95b20cd190626aaea27aa9fee07bd21abaa8468020eb7bbf3ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-wol-ast-2025-02-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ICE detain less than 600 people on January 31? | Event: how-many-people-will-ice-detain-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ICE detain 800-899 people... | yes | 1 | dog-man-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $35-40m? | 67,508,066 | 67,508,066 |
c11c0af81eb65de4ba3184ab81f85349099bd157 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x6774997e483dc962153b20ace4ac54eef46c8962a17e2ba44d27283876176cae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ICE detain less than 600 people on January 31? | Event: how-many-people-will-ice-detain-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ICE detain 800-899 people on January 31? | Event: how-many-people-will-ice-detain-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | dog-man-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $25-30m? | 67,508,066 | 67,508,066 |
3a213df0f20cd31dc7f950d238f2a101980d5edf | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x9410695e6246e4733653739eab8d73b85360662216b24837dd44ad10b20ddd0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ICE detain 800-899 people on January 31? | Event: how-many-people-will-ice-detain-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-ast-2025-02-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ICE detain 1100-1199 peo... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-3 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on February 3? | 67,508,066 | 67,508,066 |
903ca1b07ac4b11c38c7b8dd23c888db98979979 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xaf29d3eaa1003b058d5d1585cd30ac4f063dd9a84ff38c567e23be202dd38e1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-ast-2025-02-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ICE detain 1100-1199 people on January 31? | Event: how-many-people-will-ice-detain-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "After Hours" by Kehla... | yes | 1 | dog-man-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $40m? | 67,508,066 | 67,508,066 |
da3e8d481c91338f485a8a68a21cabbbd0980c82 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x599512c35b16ecad67c12ccde19f51304b59b512899c03b61bef4d8a305e6273 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ICE detain 1100-1199 people on January 31? | Event: how-many-people-will-ice-detain-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "After Hours" by Kehlani win Best R&B Song? | Event: grammys-best-rb-song | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Not Like Us" by K... | no | 1 | companion-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $17m? | 67,509,867 | 67,509,867 |
e459f4d2a186e695cf1c75d9d924143ca4c17e68 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x769ea1cf08975c4d265dc9a2319638030e7d479a6e385d43aada154a489c05bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "After Hours" by Kehlani win Best R&B Song? | Event: grammys-best-rb-song | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Not Like Us" by Kendrick Lamar win Best Rap Song? | Event: grammys-best-rap-song | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in London... | no | 1 | companion-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $8m? | 67,509,867 | 67,509,867 |
927d6f90b06f7eb26c1443132fe0a95e9ad3fa6e | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x950a134a80c0b5726d3b3e54064495eae102f5e844452cf39b3dfdeac75a79ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Not Like Us" by Kendrick Lamar win Best Rap Song? | Event: grammys-best-rap-song | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.57894... | no | 1 | epl-che-wes-2025-02-03 | Will Chelsea vs. West Ham end in a draw? | 67,509,867 | 67,509,867 |
ce37c2b844fd0c218da8a1061c5170b8eaeec937 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xa0b04e38c6b9d5ab972ae89ebf708cce18f8cdf164d8ffcfbdc017ecfb4e4bd2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5789473684210527
2. Question: Will 'Might Delete Later' win Best Rap Album? | Event: grammys-best-rap-album | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | companion-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11-14m? | 67,510,503 | 67,510,503 |
970c7a3591ed670d75109b7348ff1184145da2e0 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x9ebed5c090e39f5e75d9c45d7bce986f8f175d362f2bfa98990d21aacb137046 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Might Delete Later' win Best Rap Album? | Event: grammys-best-rap-album | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'The Death Of Slim Shady (Coup De Grǎce)' win Best Rap Album? | Event: grammys-best-rap-album | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'We Don't Trust You' wi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-3 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on February 3? | 67,512,825 | 67,512,825 |
5a06c11c9ad291e39c8402bb47945119bd9d1c1a | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x9926bc0f815a09dc0403d130ea06dfde3e9219f74811756c3f8f8ac0455704d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'The Death Of Slim Shady (Coup De Grǎce)' win Best Rap Album? | Event: grammys-best-rap-album | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'We Don't Trust You' win Best Rap Album? | Event: grammys-best-rap-album | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Alligator Bites Never ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-3 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on February 3? | 67,512,960 | 67,512,960 |
801a79d5a5ed11ab995ac12b8fdfd3f8e5640a6d | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x02285d419f287801fb1662be1405e5dcb594dab307198804d37d3dab36bd7ffb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'We Don't Trust You' win Best Rap Album? | Event: grammys-best-rap-album | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Alligator Bites Never Heal' win Best Rap Album? | Event: grammys-best-rap-album | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Higher' win Best Country Album? | ... | no | 1 | trump-potus-of-tweets-january-31-feb-7 | Will POTUS tweet less than 5 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,515,516 | 67,515,516 |
d6877f5c203d8c678517d3080aaf154e7b8492bb | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x728da1e41ef928b553a6bfd5b94657cf3145849c06512e9a9e51b46bd38297e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Alligator Bites Never Heal' win Best Rap Album? | Event: grammys-best-rap-album | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Higher' win Best Country Album? | Event: grammys-best-country-album | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Whirlwind' win Best Country Album? | E... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,520,578 | 67,520,578 |
f7d408c263900c4096ad492d16f5e630468f2714 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x3e50285a2b7a5fab47f55afdeff7f0eacf016504081686bc9d8cbd0fcc450637 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Higher' win Best Country Album? | Event: grammys-best-country-album | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Whirlwind' win Best Country Album? | Event: grammys-best-country-album | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Best Country Album? | Event: ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,540,029 | 67,540,029 |
629646f164b597935fa059bdd72e63ad357b1c8d | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x5b5abac851e20ce79747af6b802950204df9b950b6bf73e176e556c71c9f1022 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Whirlwind' win Best Country Album? | Event: grammys-best-country-album | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Best Country Album? | Event: grammys-best-country-album | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Deeper Well' win Best Country Album? | E... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-3 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on February 3? | 67,540,029 | 67,540,029 |
4fbe675946e51979b4762e4ccd15b276c4e41151 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x62f76cb0b1bf9e51fe80964758d3d2cb1c99e3d65973fbed85c733578865eb99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Best Country Album? | Event: grammys-best-country-album | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deeper Well' win Best Country Album? | Event: grammys-best-country-album | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chappell Roan win Best New Artist? | Ev... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-3 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on February 3? | 67,540,029 | 67,540,029 |
dbb3ce0c502f57cf40b32d89cc092bbe3c8dfd39 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x716ce4b062cfa981ecc84d4c56b919dd2de9aa7eafcc9c7ad42f81d8e99f584a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deeper Well' win Best Country Album? | Event: grammys-best-country-album | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chappell Roan win Best New Artist? | Event: grammys-best-new-artist | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter win Best New Artist? | Event:... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,540,029 | 67,540,029 |
a3d7d9d29a69a69a899eeb49c684118bc3c82f0f | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x71a0ca7a27f5eafc847ead0bcaa2be7999f49e4789263c6c753bc9a49df75feb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chappell Roan win Best New Artist? | Event: grammys-best-new-artist | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter win Best New Artist? | Event: grammys-best-new-artist | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Now and Then' win Record of the Year? | Event: g... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-4 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on February 4? | 67,540,029 | 67,540,029 |
0fd243c2afe65f20f6e890e07c8c18e5c06a4bc2 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xbc1b9a5f8a7bb8303e037688ad42862eeb3f77684733945b3704c1e9e24779fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter win Best New Artist? | Event: grammys-best-new-artist | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Now and Then' win Record of the Year? | Event: grammys-record-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year? | Eve... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-4 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 49°F or higher on February 4? | 67,540,029 | 67,540,029 |
4652dff48fbc6b360d711aee22485f0af5f6b6ae | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xec8d74c28fc2c235f5a3cda58b603d1afe3095914a1418bfb8296d3b7dd1a1f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Now and Then' win Record of the Year? | Event: grammys-record-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year? | Event: grammys-record-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of the Yea... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-4 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 4? | 67,540,029 | 67,540,029 |
b9e4aaac2370d13a8196ab04638764ac20bbd91b | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xff01fc640b0f8f29b30a10e31c5362502df9092476d9f9768e3bb2ae4dd5ef87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year? | Event: grammys-record-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of the Year? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'TEXAS HOLD 'EM' win Song of the ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-4 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on February 4? | 67,540,029 | 67,540,029 |
dd3edcfdacc007e3d6f7de2574926a08741ac09a | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x4d710a606f47a6a2b6d0ea7923155451d9d3e43c2319f8ff43e61a98150ef5e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of the Year? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'TEXAS HOLD 'EM' win Song of the Year? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Alb... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,543,295 | 67,543,295 |
da450ff0516be31e72b154a88ae1420b27fe7ea0 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x6f4a6781f7a1870742bb9ccdc918b1ab91217bd6a52ffcabb445bc6078e32544 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'TEXAS HOLD 'EM' win Song of the Year? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year? | Event: grammys-album-of-the-year-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'BRAT' win Album of the Ye... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,553,394 | 67,553,394 |
03eb197f766f52c7296f98df472a1bada20349c2 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x6be026cccb86a59c42107f95fcdb8eca1587e4783e48722c00ca86fc55bc55a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year? | Event: grammys-album-of-the-year-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'BRAT' win Album of the Year? | Event: grammys-album-of-the-year-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on February 5? | 67,554,034 | 67,554,034 |
999f770e1fef6e00d74389557ac621099e27029b | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xd6bc7b4a6fc7ac7b053362dbee482ce4123dcc453a486ab40d58e3a7247c46dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'BRAT' win Album of the Year? | Event: grammys-album-of-the-year-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 32°F or below on February 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon t... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-trumps-attorney-general | Will Pam Bondi be Trump's Attorney General? | 67,554,898 | 67,554,898 |
598c0a9bd67b9957163296bc3478b79b09e6e3b1 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xe8c65bcfb3ecbb70a1f3c1b09fdab397119f22f0f4d4f04caae56f64f10a8997 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 32°F or below on February 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | trump-potus-of-tweets-january-31-feb-7 | Will POTUS tweet 5-7 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,554,898 | 67,554,898 |
2acd4b2bc9e3064abee03b79098af7859378e81d | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xa97a82b4cdfe9bcdafd2b3ba417428c379bb0d150f14093b7144de0adf163861 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,564,233 | 67,564,233 |
6ef5782f125d727619d8a84724a9da1a9071b889 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xcdd6d272c9f10433c07bb8d6d306f881ee66633d5c7b87ffd5220835ffd5d4ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,564,233 | 67,564,233 |
b8d083b3938a54f686b8d219692247850e65108e | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xb8f5509328823e46e33b57ee226e41c8c1bdb3388446c892c40cfb05b27873c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 5? | 67,581,675 | 67,581,675 |
6d539c191f79a5736d080568d937e534044e7bf5 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xee068b9b7d89d0a68b1b1940a143e961c5752e294fa9ff561fa991d0cc225afa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,582,492 | 67,582,492 |
bae64644699561ecfab99be292509a316f95d6e6 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x5abfc533183561de74833c4de1f0b8512d800bc7d64d4c943622e1bf889c923c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $35-40m? | Event: dog-man-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Dog ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on February 5? | 67,595,296 | 67,595,296 |
8b69b9879f95d021e26ff2e0576080a0d4b14e74 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xa616bce25ace55b32ca875f3af60a4aa1fcf37dc3ca952ced03eeaa63879e628 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $35-40m? | Event: dog-man-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $25-30m? | Event: dog-man-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 5? | 67,595,296 | 67,595,296 |
87d9885d8ed05defb498f0ce15473d4d3d8a26a1 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xe8e1206208186e5c59f93ecc38453a334246c658625da8a0aa53b1fefc56571c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $25-30m? | Event: dog-man-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on February 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-3 | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 5? | 67,595,296 | 67,595,296 |
3ae02a324831febf9c5a508d75ea1f19db8bc3a2 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x33a8bd1bdc58b333cad81bdec4e315c1fc7331ff5b4cb7622100496ed819c188 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on February 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $40m? | Event: dog-man-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confiden... | no | 1 | trump-potus-of-tweets-january-31-feb-7 | Will POTUS tweet 8-10 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,596,114 | 67,596,114 |
9e58ccda402359a4258ea859337f8a624352bd18 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x1b2768ac62dfea779405822eb1fe67691eac684cfba5d025d8cb7067fc174f83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $40m? | Event: dog-man-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $17m? | Event: companion-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,617,695 | 67,617,695 |
3050d6997b315862c4460d0760797354433c5d2c | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xc2b40b3c28a66f202b6e8caf6a8edb0dfd44f9768a8e9526f31dd3255e2cf174 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $17m? | Event: companion-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $8m? | Event: companion-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Will Elon tweet 550-574 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,623,463 | 67,623,463 |
688ea3fd1b2bc4d4f667bfe97782fc2333c78090 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x7b9972c81b798ed4c8172d7710ee93c8421e407cccea7b0bc27281eaf48b7171 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $8m? | Event: companion-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-che-wes-2025-02-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Companion" Opening... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 6? | 67,632,636 | 67,632,636 |
28516fcdb63a4c4abf59b10e5d4859e6a5c4d0d5 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x80ef4a09c0f0343a16128bdee1799b7ebb76ef15749ea7b3e2e04b3010d3f089 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-che-wes-2025-02-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11-14m? | Event: companion-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest tempe... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 6? | 67,632,636 | 67,632,636 |
4a2c5dd307cb5d15bef5e52acf30111faa606f71 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xb722a5b45981597a72fdf941225286871f207e6c2b84928b603dcb7475c051f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11-14m? | Event: companion-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on February 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-3 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 6? | 67,632,636 | 67,632,636 |
5091d5fb936db6296f4f57d5787026b07f9ada76 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xfd843741aa9223d53691e8ded8f872aaa2868cf6898feff37775cda892569884 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on February 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on February 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-februar... | no | 1 | nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Will Trey Hendrickson win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | 67,635,525 | 67,635,525 |
4344f4b037525c7d7558c1fe7e5a3b6860c1cc50 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x422a4048c5715063294544c82c22be3088ce68ceda239378967ad6134d7639d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on February 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will POTUS tweet less than 5 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: trump-potus-of-tweets-january-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | 67,637,043 | 67,637,043 |
002414671ff9894785df063761c17d004e1d112a | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x7b95fdf56982eb03e57d14ecbfbd0e21f0abdcc857bc3b809a1336d5cd94d4e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will POTUS tweet less than 5 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: trump-potus-of-tweets-january-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 32... | no | 1 | nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Will Sam Darnold win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | 67,637,043 | 67,637,043 |
4694d9a13104d4ea219f2f8c745b111bf8a739f7 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x3da363945310b23e303b03ef89040c6dca5577edffb2962df3c5a1186aae109a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature ... | yes | 1 | nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year | Will Jared Verse win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year? | 67,637,171 | 67,637,171 |
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