sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2b4772e50c6456ea8c55ef6c718c1dda62caf044 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x74b835cd8ec86eb9c44c6f1dc4185e5788c235868f2cb3f17b69ba67fe883d0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on February 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | nfl-mvp-1 | Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | 67,638,614 | 67,638,614 |
8f8267b5808ac7fcf4c5a34ae328b07174d05ce8 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x620dff6dfaf15ecc40c9ac84f1dfa56ca1cd8067d745d539756c36d37c1e8a84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on February 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on February 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-3 | Choice:... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-6 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on February 6? | 67,651,641 | 67,651,641 |
f5e04de632b6dd6c589fe2753a7e0f10293aa1e2 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x749b827711e7e8974aa700dd304887622358ba4c5fdc01f3f0d9793a93020f33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on February 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-7 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 7? | 67,651,641 | 67,651,641 |
aacd9ae3621dd359d1572b2fb1f774f82cae41b9 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x8ec09f7269af8813efdc5de2b2d579e9687712db946bcd2e78db9313a4559210 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on February 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Will Elon tweet 600-624 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,651,641 | 67,651,641 |
d9ba9e0d55dc6daf1af4f49cdeb0945a78029118 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xd27fe91e166357f18d0528a4862a43e709d672ec5293e23cdd5fe33598b9d668 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on February 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 49°F or higher on February 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-4 | Choice: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-7 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 38-39°F on February 7? | 67,651,641 | 67,651,641 |
288d5f9148f183dc8aed83012176906d0a72d1e0 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x360fbda919c2cf7f230457c6d46e0ab0d67b115536aca01f7ff666f4237365be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 49°F or higher on February 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-4 | Choice:... | no | 1 | critics-choice-best-actress | Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | 67,675,523 | 67,675,523 |
3595b1c2e2eaaec5f280a5f9fb2e114ecfe3d740 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x4a0a1c8d14bedfb3aff6703cbc6645cc6c06f8de56284675c61acfc207ba18c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on February 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-4 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | critics-choice-best-actress | Will Demi Moore win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | 67,675,523 | 67,675,523 |
81898927d74d24cb39bee5a93279b6710a353a3f | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x9d9febf014242ee5630a58277272fec763fc022111c4eb26f9685d099ab33f7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on February 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-february-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | critics-choice-best-cinematography | Will 'The Brutalist' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | 67,675,523 | 67,675,523 |
1d782bc0e1f27c4b4163e453ee0200a5d9d24b60 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xe5ff2302e9b9ba2d9689132b35da8eceb02bde8a58780d1a4c1c1e99497f7c12 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature ... | no | 1 | critics-choice-best-cinematography | Will 'Conclave' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | 67,675,523 | 67,675,523 |
e59b90a126062f6e192994826a674d91b633bd89 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xe8cca032342ce7259e3eaef962c870a4825300b8eef99b5712a56a21cb457ea0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on February 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | critics-choice-best-cinematography | Will 'Nickel Boys' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | 67,675,523 | 67,675,523 |
a997e948ed1c8702f1e1ae10dc53aa3b79143520 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x6f475397a32d293254c804448ac46510403849e70f4977668181de7e2a598927 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on February 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pam Bondi be Trump's Attorney General? | Event: who-will-be-trumps-attorney-general | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-8 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 29°F or below on February 8? | 67,680,203 | 67,680,203 |
a29966b8c9bb33b0327d092c89f5b0abb46fc31a | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x330979055f4ad31a8075866cdf4c2c81b20e352849f5f61499bac691a2899b57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pam Bondi be Trump's Attorney General? | Event: who-will-be-trumps-attorney-general | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will POTUS tweet 5-7 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: trump-potus-of-tweets-january-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 ... | no | 1 | midwest-region-winner-2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Will SIU Edwardsville win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,303,665 | 69,303,665 |
170ffc10cf1fe3926cdfa58ad11dc086b85d08c9 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x91338a7b61861f6695d8e899bddd45d23fcb15acac127111d18b36099032381b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will POTUS tweet 5-7 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: trump-potus-of-tweets-january-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 450 or mor... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-spain | Will Spain vs. Netherlands end in a draw? | 69,303,665 | 69,303,665 |
5a57a9352e8726f5aca8da0d090441de2e423dd0 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x4df8c5688e5bb08b7523892610c3b280efe09d87387efb45563eaa4f16da3200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest tempera... | no | 1 | concacaf-nations-league-canada-vs-mexico | Will Canada beat Mexico? | 69,306,385 | 69,306,385 |
cd1084a77195494fd2643da1b6d52bbd0d6a705d | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x193cc313a80fa08f4fa79d5feee502bb4f11e569ba2b3da3972d793c19d7dabc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | midwest-region-winner-2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Will Wofford win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,308,596 | 69,308,596 |
63ba746b20751e02711c42c41bf847077059f9fd | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xa159c89dd5db9ab0f5d623c46f05511c0b72b540efb71da9b73aab3a5c5d60d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-peru-vs-bolivia | Will Peru vs. Bolivia end in a draw? | 69,311,784 | 69,311,784 |
e3c3321719ee0aeb88c043cc9f6addbcb1d6f54b | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xe667de9434da5c1fa9915f88ba82fc957e05c5f19624648d96856a3d36799d2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on February 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-5 | Choice: no | ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? | 69,325,682 | 69,325,682 |
44b35e738fb617c76013b253d9c79c5f4d2371c1 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x5a5d6ba40396fa5d775e30047f0a48bcdc013365f0bae8fa70a4aec838f8ca24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on February 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? | 69,333,711 | 69,333,711 |
bbb85ca7b0e38da40a544615a8010c28cb21a979 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x0704cb3eb6231ef570d7fe4eff0869311ee518a529d2467f2a794a4ff2779e32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-februar... | no | 1 | how-many-upsets-in-first-round-of-ncaa-tournament | March Madness: Less than 5 upsets? | 69,340,699 | 69,340,699 |
af8bd3ec520671007b07678a594872ae5051dc8b | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x0f369699bbeef6e29ebba00f4bd5f84d60abcd8b902a3da4ec16a8898ce572ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will POTUS tweet 8-10 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: trump-potus-of-tweets-january-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | south-region-winner-march-madness | Will Lipscomb win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,340,699 | 69,340,699 |
c06deade310f8eb55a4c899170802c69a05a6e51 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x4532605a3350f6a4343fa30070c863cb7d78013c9ef4d19b3dcb78ef1f842b5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will POTUS tweet 8-10 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: trump-potus-of-tweets-january-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon ... | no | 1 | east-region-winner-march-madness | Will Robert Morris win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,340,699 | 69,340,699 |
5f41447b4a060c8f2ae60919ce9bd7a81fc86277 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x64be16abe1190d10fcc2fc362d5b33a6d0350a99afbb082dabd63189364eea11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 550-574 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | east-region-winner-march-madness | Will Mississippi State win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,340,699 | 69,340,699 |
13359afd17bff5512d042bd1af38469a929cdb50 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xbafeef6356a84cf8600803319cc888b21195f80ad97c16168b6312dd1a579b1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 550-574 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-6 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | how-many-upsets-in-first-round-of-ncaa-tournament | March Madness: 5 first round upsets? | 69,340,699 | 69,340,699 |
22aa64457d05539805325fd9a05c7eb8fdc73270 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x57d4e4a11793019185a3b86e6675924e0c597af8911fb4a10a48023e885bc2c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february... | no | 1 | west-region-winner-march-madness | Will Grand Canyon win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,343,917 | 69,343,917 |
8071c8e7ba2b8b7a8ae83a02d8cd1bf15cb51332 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xb5de375f66cbcb6a5ce57b85ba7ebcb3626fd22fef815c139ebb7dd89cb4cd63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february... | no | 1 | east-region-winner-march-madness | Will Mount St. Mary's win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,343,917 | 69,343,917 |
a9f942c7a1ed51ac2d16ff485afcf3bbb8f0c740 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xb8b67f09f6850d6225e5bcbfd6ca51ede3bd421c367e5037e3c3aae9d595c64d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trey Hendrickson win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Will North Carolina win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,343,917 | 69,343,917 |
418b081261d11df111c9481199a768475d41e203 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xc7bdeb7d1252b4a661c57bc6a0e90587ab8cdcffa62d38e964bd5d719b7074bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trey Hendrickson win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sam... | no | 1 | south-region-winner-march-madness | Will North Carolina win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,343,917 | 69,343,917 |
ef452b8e856f2a2694c8c633001fd68039eb3b98 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x182e6e2d9f1a3adba1b2ab5f63a625237fa0e8abac416430674d6d812655f66c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sam Darnold win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jared Vers... | no | 1 | west-region-winner-march-madness | Will Norfolk State win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,348,498 | 69,348,498 |
47a6d44ef1a3f2a84956788d86ce54ab88608255 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x78363a3edb313547bf76cabbf914d0646322982444e101804e9aedbebc924280 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Darnold win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jared Verse win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year? | Event: nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lamar J... | no | 1 | 2026-world-cup-qualifiers-argentina-vs-uruguay | Will Uruguay beat Argentina? | 69,348,498 | 69,348,498 |
9949f2d687935fec6fc087135d0cfc130a69d9fd | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xbba16a21398862877d2ba91d7221be625b4514066580c91c6acbc32b03fe7997 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jared Verse win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year? | Event: nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | Event: nfl-mvp-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in N... | no | 1 | nba-champion-2024-2025 | Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? | 69,348,498 | 69,348,498 |
75e9264bfe307e8c0c5ef7c2e5ca3b196f40b11b | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xc29942213c352970dcdb412efc9f24504aca00b15b7c9e1f23b2c7256858e063 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | Event: nfl-mvp-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on February 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest... | no | 1 | 2026-world-cup-qualifiers-argentina-vs-uruguay | Will Argentina vs. Uruguay end in a draw? | 69,348,498 | 69,348,498 |
689c87948080ff871f9bd47c9bce8192f02c2441 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x39b3e077eb88e9ae869d9903facf82b338806881364237e6d532ad0bae0e56d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on February 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-7 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | how-many-upsets-in-first-round-of-ncaa-tournament | March Madness: 6 first round upsets? | 69,350,137 | 69,350,137 |
b2bb3bf03da467db5ed13642d7e1d57d942e44ef | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x518708f1a4438ddddd6cbd1c2d74f95bcb719e230c01a934ec481ee02cb1b800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 600-624 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 0.999999 | snow-white-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? | 69,350,631 | 69,354,819 |
d55e36f9cbfa7c0c193bc31f5d4d03fe81537d58 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x418d88a681ea26bf00a71cbaa827d2eb05e72ee66c693575095d8405e76890b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 600-624 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 38-39°F on February 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-7 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | midwest-region-winner-2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Will Xavier win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,353,213 | 69,353,213 |
9181abddc0386d8ee8eb9b2021389da603d143cf | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xe372931b6a2c9ed3dff29fbfa13df2d7951d88b3bba47ef4adc6fc590537d490 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 38-39°F on February 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | Event: critics-choice-best-actress | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | west-region-winner-march-madness | Will Oklahoma win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,353,213 | 69,353,213 |
6c6c0287592cdf2b3cb0aeee897c4b646c2ec472 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x1cd24cf52d8b254ae01472e0e819db7b052f43acbc437e384dee1af928c4dafd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | Event: critics-choice-best-actress | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Demi Moore win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | Event: critics-choice-best-actress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 1 | east-region-winner-march-madness | Will Liberty win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,353,928 | 69,353,928 |
d7274125cc85f8f4d3f5a32882764e80956baa56 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x979fabd266efcfd7930fd08442d7553d11521c28aa9da47a87611b57e92d71f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Demi Moore win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | Event: critics-choice-best-actress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'The Brutalist' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | Event: critics-choice-best-cinematography | Choice: no | Co... | no | 1 | south-region-winner-march-madness | Will Bryant win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,353,928 | 69,353,928 |
4154817a0d3bad5dab40ed73ca15660ba475e89f | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x45f213bad4e111ff070eabeffd242ab020c92146161e02f017b03776932af0a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'The Brutalist' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | Event: critics-choice-best-cinematography | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Conclave' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | Event: critics-choice-best-cinematography | Ch... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-21 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on March 21? | 69,354,677 | 69,354,677 |
7fe4d3ae52467005de14e77cbb41ca69e4969b21 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x9215a012e14f345e71bf59f4f97076ee2c440d8332e9449375462b18ac06e23f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Conclave' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | Event: critics-choice-best-cinematography | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Nickel Boys' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | Event: critics-choice-best-cinematography | Choi... | no | 1 | midwest-region-winner-2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Will McNeese win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,377,336 | 69,377,336 |
d34e7c1cf9ad44bdf3f2877f227746666ba69834 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xfafc3ca0155d74e13168ee0045f80a8269167d0c88fd4ef3350e6144a3b730aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Nickel Boys' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | Event: critics-choice-best-cinematography | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 29°F or below on February 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-8 | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | west-region-winner-march-madness | Will St. John's win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,386,053 | 69,386,053 |
e8e76c4b9d74bd150d2929cbe38084cb11fdb573 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x5e9c15d7b455afd57a1ee6e93ca99dca40c5f68de0c7b26ea210eac12ca05846 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 29°F or below on February 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SIU Edwardsville win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: midwest-region-winner-2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | C... | no | 1 | west-region-winner-march-madness | Will Drake win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,386,779 | 69,386,779 |
9bb4d71d25ae14ead7be1facc59b89f377b7244a | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x2f446833215edda1380f2939f319b2bbbf5e31c58fd8fe83ecc281634b74805d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SIU Edwardsville win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: midwest-region-winner-2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spain vs. Netherlands end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confiden... | no | 1 | 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Will Drake win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,388,158 | 69,388,158 |
1bea8acd23ab6d54522e1594c60ddc2a88ab3916 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xfdca0622d088d13a2a3ed756739b8f70933a9a58a6a0de0b76c78341d7193067 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain vs. Netherlands end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Canada beat Mexico? | Event: concacaf-nations-league-canada-vs-mexico | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wofford win the Midwest region o... | no | 1 | 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Will Creighton win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,389,774 | 69,389,774 |
7fb7ca4be033d0307991e480903984a83a9c40c9 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x42773c146ad3442197720136c229e468f1c4bb7157055e3e9c5e582ea0142283 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Canada beat Mexico? | Event: concacaf-nations-league-canada-vs-mexico | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wofford win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: midwest-region-winner-2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will P... | no | 1 | east-region-winner-march-madness | Will Wisconsin win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,391,787 | 69,391,787 |
fdb42ae6c5a4f82398927289146804ec1bb67571 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xc2673f60918fe572e2485f0c5bdc9e5ea8a992aeed2804d556122b45851bea02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wofford win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: midwest-region-winner-2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Peru vs. Bolivia end in a draw? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-peru-vs-bolivia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Will Wisconsin win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,391,787 | 69,391,787 |
621342381088aef7d9807ff8eb82f2a9b1772888 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xd613aa9dce826ba8c9ff6ca6e3fcd46fdf314d53e420555b3c8913f7ad42bba2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Peru vs. Bolivia end in a draw? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-peru-vs-bolivia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less t... | no | 1 | 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Will Gonzaga win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,391,787 | 69,391,787 |
84f4f93fdb4dcf7fcf4eaae22a68228078fdedc3 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x50552fbc755dd277fea85071f3e869e2f28874cf1e5916e6d26a80a92b174378 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: March Madness: Less than 5 upse... | no | 1 | 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Will Saint Mary's win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,428,280 | 69,428,280 |
8f183349c0669b56fd5a96fc2273b9543ac75c5a | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x5916f8743b924507cccece9e76e03cb417a928a01c6cbae869d4b371a3100cc6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: March Madness: Less than 5 upsets? | Event: how-many-upsets-in-first-round-of-ncaa-tournament | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lipscomb win t... | no | 1 | east-region-winner-march-madness | Will Baylor win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,428,280 | 69,428,280 |
5a781672236ffa2a768a6c49e9c90afd025e2d80 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x83170aed481604d136d7949b02126486957fe4aef22b5a7cb98aae326c28eb6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: March Madness: Less than 5 upsets? | Event: how-many-upsets-in-first-round-of-ncaa-tournament | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lipscomb win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: south-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Will Illinois win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,428,280 | 69,428,280 |
d624e32db66ab6c46162d610df065809099a714e | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x946a3b3855192e38ccc8bcab514071a035bd9212822558bef3196afa40ce6379 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lipscomb win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: south-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert Morris win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: east-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner-w | Will Baylor win the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament? | 69,428,280 | 69,428,280 |
bb8287824d56bc5da6aa553cc642f9e64d910a76 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xb51b1b1dfb0a64b50d19111fdfacd63769a255d5a3dcca9f3c533fc51ff14e66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Morris win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: east-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mississippi State win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: east-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | west-region-winner-march-madness | Will Connecticut win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,428,280 | 69,428,280 |
4c16c43b7580a754e895eeff9ce2b7231e9c2aed | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xbab1842a88e54484d623e701111315a47972a17b6f7befbe3ff9c94ac3f924a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mississippi State win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: east-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: March Madness: 5 first round upsets? | Event: how-many-upsets-in-first-round-of-ncaa-tournament | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner-w | Will Kentucky win the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament? | 69,428,280 | 69,428,280 |
2b1d948d98d67f50d0054b98748c2f24fa88ea1f | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xdf4d3663d4fc36012316f5470e1ba02f304f2b61f04a47faa62c68509e57bd41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: March Madness: 5 first round upsets? | Event: how-many-upsets-in-first-round-of-ncaa-tournament | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grand Canyon win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: west-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 1 | 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Will UConn win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,428,280 | 69,428,280 |
e6e786ae99f33d78585ba03585de9542cbe33426 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xc8b909bf6ed18915abe1bc3f0d91375136d8cf296002c1033c831f6e21f89519 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Grand Canyon win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: west-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mount St. Mary's win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: east-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | south-region-winner-march-madness | Will New Mexico win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,432,297 | 69,432,297 |
902601084431280623b7578d544bd3262533504b | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x0f7aeca1b2afd7298184053ffbdd1713a0e5e0fcb3a17051c4630f7296270221 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mount St. Mary's win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: east-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will North Carolina win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Will Oregon win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,452,406 | 69,452,406 |
3318f134c2fbc64b009e1c970855d44f2490d810 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xb2732d4aab7e35ba7256674e02dc27b692d74d12ec9f9f816bbed49f5cbe2e21 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will North Carolina win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will North Carolina win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: south-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | magazine-dreams-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Magazine Dreams' gross between 1-2m on opening weekend? | 69,462,356 | 69,462,356 |
76daa6e00640f1c237d85406eae21bc64ce1ee86 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xc0281ee465710d72986ff4c2ef876b163bd51972ae7354e79bd4c8012f6add49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will North Carolina win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: south-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Norfolk State win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: west-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 0.999999 | snow-white-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? | 69,462,356 | 69,462,356 |
85280ad12a07c8179ffad1d010fbe8d7bdd5d2cb | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x8c23bb9a6e433c8aca7b402bf223068b1d344665a73ac0fdea3461b229372b40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Norfolk State win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: west-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay beat Argentina? | Event: 2026-world-cup-qualifiers-argentina-vs-uruguay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the W... | no | 1 | 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner-w | Will Iowa win the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament? | 69,464,464 | 69,464,464 |
7cb6a194d8a301df4b6b128d78d8949907171268 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x3f1e5241871e84d2295d5fedda9c2d981e33e71d7bb63ab2428379c30932c9b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Uruguay beat Argentina? | Event: 2026-world-cup-qualifiers-argentina-vs-uruguay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Argentina vs. Uruguay end in a... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-24 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 57°F or higher on March 24? | 69,476,107 | 69,476,107 |
4c584449268ae6553e2011b55f77a6753fe46313 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x70f284e43db94dec422c92b0f37c2b21ab65d4c89237fc07517d05a9e38a7d3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Argentina vs. Uruguay end in a draw? | Event: 2026-world-cup-qualifiers-argentina-vs-uruguay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: March Madness: 6 first... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-24 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 24? | 69,476,107 | 69,476,107 |
70c62e7b149fd863da79ec362293e7d42fb71fde | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xfd255705d0783dea8385567fcfd289567544700f5248735fffec71bf40756f31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina vs. Uruguay end in a draw? | Event: 2026-world-cup-qualifiers-argentina-vs-uruguay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: March Madness: 6 first round upsets? | Event: how-many-upsets-in-first-round-of-ncaa-tournament | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Snow ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-24 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 24? | 69,476,107 | 69,476,107 |
8862ebe2c8abcb16189362da24b9ef414312a1a8 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x1ef5a2ccf03ce7f58837c155a378c0b1e26a9c03280c801a9480572d75959e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: March Madness: 6 first round upsets? | Event: how-many-upsets-in-first-round-of-ncaa-tournament | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? | Event: snow-white-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999985766350371
3.... | no | 1 | king-of-kings-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'King of Kings' make less than $15m on its domestic opening weekend? | 70,189,391 | 70,242,687 |
6cfa99a9a29abdf4e17d24282bea756f70bf4107 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x517c5ee01291b3ae8f438909132bab3acf619ce5f420e12fc054ba0927a823f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? | Event: snow-white-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999985766350371
2. Question: Will Xavier win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: midwest-region-winner-2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-11 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on April 11? | 70,221,324 | 70,221,324 |
0b3bc336f11fb8ae35a9ea34a503fd07e6ab642b | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x70bca896d0fa96b4bdb7f3e54e0dcd71215f1d7afcb538289f03de95b6ec8609 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Xavier win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: midwest-region-winner-2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oklahoma win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: west-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-12 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on April 12? | 70,221,324 | 70,221,324 |
3d6fb6bbe65c9b65d0d4c12ff29752e9ab343a13 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x852fbb3407fefe9ded00f97b9184b11c2c06944fc5794636788087614872b4a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oklahoma win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: west-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liberty win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: east-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-11 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on April 11? | 70,221,324 | 70,221,324 |
9403058bb8ddf871905b05cfb588209fefd59049 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xa093374015c951b497a3778feb246ba0c781154d0370018aff6fb9ee9abc3b87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liberty win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: east-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bryant win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: south-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-12 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 37°F or below on April 12? | 70,221,324 | 70,221,324 |
d6c70d7b05e77b188a2748cc98c9ec4ebe862649 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xfff1cc9ddfe7c97e386f65ac7f6f09b145002fec1c26f6b4941568a7b15aa6e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryant win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: south-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on March 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-11 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on April 11? | 70,221,324 | 70,221,324 |
4684fd890db588b4563cf9b13f5c001669d9a9fc | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xf2061eea6cec0bcf7c7e4c8063bd6304b428f9f1164998d205ddcbc3cf033b00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on March 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will McNeese win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: midwest-region-winner-2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice... | no | 0.818182 | nba-3-point-field-goal-leader | Will Malik Beasley lead the NBA in 3 Point Field Goals? | 70,266,333 | 70,266,333 |
048e0e3525e0369b0f6d44d84d4510779662447b | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x84bc8f37f9c7443db5c2d107c8c394f830f848d3239cb18c3cf9791c6eb9ba67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will McNeese win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: midwest-region-winner-2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will St. John's win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: west-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Con... | yes | 1 | nba-worst-record | Will the Utah Jazz finish with the worst regular season record? | 70,274,068 | 70,274,068 |
4b16d0912e179def2284f463b32f0a5d96ad8c33 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x961ee2529ff3c3b27a9b7dc424c1d7046f52bdd5b4ae38bd74ae65f0838fabaa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will St. John's win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: west-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Drake win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: west-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | ecuador-presidential-election | Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? | 70,279,554 | 70,279,554 |
bebf72dc540bd7851775d0ab46b72120a082047b | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x3622fbcd3dfff9229bae8e3c0ec8c9fd018e0b952980f52c25fd0271f247d17c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Drake win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: west-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Drake win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Creighton win the 20... | no | 1 | presidents-trophy-winner | Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | 70,280,249 | 70,280,249 |
0a0d2e7595e08780a838303a321dec82be250b4b | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xfea0417ff3224017d41a09f4c79724302e40bf2bb972548b1dd0458bcfb3d2ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Drake win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Creighton win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wisconsin win the East region of the 202... | yes | 1 | presidents-trophy-winner | Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | 70,280,249 | 70,280,249 |
e03d8db9a93537c45087643ef7718a644f33817a | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xb9d968f7f84c70840d20cdddd6788903af704333551c790ebea3d7ac804e21de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Creighton win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wisconsin win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: east-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wisconsin wi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-13 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on April 13? | 70,300,644 | 70,300,644 |
4f7824eb23b4f0831d2dc8b8e14fec24cfe860d2 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x64cc666a27dcebe388b1bc28a999abb9b2d6b30681bade92a861e0fc1ee09dc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wisconsin win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: east-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wisconsin win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gonzaga win ... | no | 1 | the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 55 and 60? | 70,308,840 | 70,308,840 |
908df98b4641f2f6d101b9cde533d62899e796a6 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x933b7f81063a6cba0cf2a3a8cea39cdc3d2734e3ba1262a955f135ec4afafa31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wisconsin win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gonzaga win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Saint Mary's win the 2025 NCAA Tournam... | no | 1 | the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 55? | 70,308,840 | 70,308,840 |
e50771b2d77bdec68c4a2b886f6a16825dbaf3ce | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xb748ee19c25797ebf58fb194acb684e5e40c44357527fd07c05a3f770f8a76b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gonzaga win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Saint Mary's win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Baylor win the East region of the 2... | no | 1 | the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 50? | 70,308,840 | 70,308,840 |
a31a19dddba9724dbf59a0871530233b4b0a59c9 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xb9af317bd4d1ba24fb3672b72ae987144ff69cdef61a0822c74c2e371d7f4f3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Saint Mary's win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Baylor win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: east-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Illinois win... | no | 1 | the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be more than 65? | 70,308,840 | 70,308,840 |
67c591032d591273720664a7b41e45a3d050be6a | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x4b0f7ad7113c3eaaf6def5b9d7a7cee4725a1f91d193144fe289e3d73e3b6191 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Baylor win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: east-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Illinois win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Baylor win the 2... | no | 1 | epl-bou-ful-2025-04-14 | Will Fulham win on 2025-04-14? | 70,312,311 | 70,312,311 |
63288c04d921c99d1b4ef9386d6061a88153d45e | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x94a88f73fb81801cbd6b5b6a62bef8c66db1026ecefbe59e4ff5aa2040c5213c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Illinois win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Baylor win the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Connecticut win the West regio... | no | 1 | epl-bou-ful-2025-04-14 | Will Bournemouth vs. Fulham end in a draw? | 70,312,311 | 70,312,311 |
cf144d2dbe62fca821e9e93d1795dfe6072ccde3 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xa6e11fa93fa50214cf198f1af5e699b07465d43c39dc27106f595ef5d2418679 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Baylor win the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Connecticut win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: west-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ken... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-ful-2025-04-14 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-04-14? | 70,312,311 | 70,312,311 |
b1568077e2185fd245a1c62f1bc212e861561638 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x9a5759b5121f0efc7e725deeb95b2599c2d8c197d750120e491af3d808943935 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Connecticut win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: west-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kentucky win the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will U... | no | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? | 70,351,388 | 70,351,388 |
ce01bdbcc130763d24ca03e04d7a67a882f65536 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xce0f82dc8bb789ffd3bc2928db80bbc539fa04dd223d6e15e2d81eabf8e279fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kentucky win the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will UConn win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will New Mexico win the South region... | no | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | 70,351,388 | 70,351,388 |
34ece4463cc97057c1c266a0137f9c4ff9d390a3 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xb9539e0011f2da7f375b411a2038120462eaaa2bfa4ec3f03e52bd73bf45c2f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will UConn win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New Mexico win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: south-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Oregon win th... | no | 1 | ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15 | Will Borussia Dortmund vs. Barcelona end in a draw? | 70,353,169 | 70,353,169 |
b22f949581b1354e34eed8bb742be97e55a4e713 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x783a1e59cc1391ca298dfd42acba26a09576e2301a249d243dc369a05b0d3b3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will New Mexico win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: south-region-winner-march-madness | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oregon win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Magazine Dr... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-16 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on April 16? | 70,420,836 | 70,420,836 |
5d94932feaac7d75b2eddf016f9e2248983db816 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xbb190768b388a4d1ff4d218e4eebcfe0557f3b409b33712ffb2172b8a1ceb4a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oregon win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Magazine Dreams' gross between 1-2m on opening weekend? | Event: magazine-dreams-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Snow W... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-16 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 54-55°F on April 16? | 70,420,836 | 70,420,836 |
9da65752bafbc4897927e1bb98c290e91a0a3ec8 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x952ba165e249b6ed7de40408b701275421be086611c911d807515cb08d80ff00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Magazine Dreams' gross between 1-2m on opening weekend? | Event: magazine-dreams-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? | Event: snow-white-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9... | no | 1 | uel-mun-lyo-2025-04-17 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-17? | 70,426,690 | 70,427,801 |
2343f36b74eaea886655282d4a28331384ad40ae | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x1e19b295488d5d608ce838384bfa252aa987327a92c02219eb420baf7e1afa47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? | Event: snow-white-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999985766350371
2. Question: Will Iowa win the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | europa-league-winner-24-25 | Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? | 70,433,302 | 70,433,302 |
e55a6a7e5e7e0d2fb14e6a76dcd1cbc6aec4266e | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x6e6833542152851b8cfba0bf53e3a33ea586effffc031d4d4204eda0968481ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iowa win the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 57°F or higher on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | europa-league-winner-24-25 | Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? | 70,433,302 | 70,433,302 |
656458b80482926f149e050ec93ec6e28faca520 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xbca47c50bd8ff585a90daa0b3e3c616cc6e0200f746caa69f0c9abb2415d824c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 57°F or higher on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-24 | Choice: no | Con... | yes | 1 | uel-laz-bod-2025-04-17 | Will Lazio win on 2025-04-17? | 70,433,302 | 70,433,302 |
59d08de6ed1349214b62ce0e8e94d345b97cf583 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xd8ab50a64b167f56402b2a3f9504b177d5c972293873b16c5de8b8bee3798f34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-24 | Choice: yes | C... | no | 1 | uel-laz-bod-2025-04-17 | Will Lazio vs. Bodo/Glimt end in a draw? | 70,433,302 | 70,433,302 |
5d58a4053beba6cd59dfb0fbf228f37e28e0b639 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xfb6204bc4b156df97f50619d27b73a4ef6c9f751f556ffcddd68eb225fa7a9ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'King of Kings' make less than $15m on its domestic opening weekend? | Event: king-of-kings-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-17 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on April 17? | 70,438,341 | 70,438,341 |
7942567813c12bbb108f2ca18cca49e0d44b002b | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xafece7c148a97831cff172fafc1aef7f933359e8758a070edca115bec0f265b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'King of Kings' make less than $15m on its domestic opening weekend? | Event: king-of-kings-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on April 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-11 | Choice:... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on April 19? | 70,477,682 | 70,477,682 |
24519afc07cfd3f8432290272888403e163b3847 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xde9203897eaab03ff4bcb30c353e86b1e7f45e975f72c7b4d03f0afc6cde9ca5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on April 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-12 | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on April 19? | 70,477,741 | 70,477,741 |
c20eee3d9411814f863afea409f03e2517e2de0f | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xead3f96c8646e65ac0651d9ba3ae8a7d01202626be2c83c1f7772458b8eb5435 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on April 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-11 | Choice: no | Co... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on April 18? | 70,477,741 | 70,477,741 |
2f445ff64469c01f3a216505cb85c59f9d85b5d7 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x00595863287c7c30148d0714255073d0ae0cf338f5287195b720b4ad1c5cbab7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on April 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 37°F or below on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election | Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? | 71,013,659 | 71,013,659 |
088ebbe53999ef5cbb6d15c5f20afa197afdce4f | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x9f314dd8cc294f38b635e0b6a646d791de96adc07c193fbf177b63f7e2dadfda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 37°F or below on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on April 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-11 | Choice: no | Conf... | yes | 1 | nba-playoffs-cavaliers-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-1? | 71,496,910 | 71,496,910 |
0b06314ac752402d1245f9e711da5c0c8b1d9577 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xbb49aeb60fc5454f81c518b8578c0f4e92715193359c6d056b4fee6b1c7e5358 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on April 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Malik Beasley lead the NBA in 3 Point Field Goals? | Event: nba-3-point-field-goal-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.818181818... | no | 1 | nba-eastern-conference-champion | Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | 71,496,910 | 71,496,910 |
47fac2dd17deee4c18505b159e6f7265bd606207 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x61e5f6b06484dad97223fd49cc848347ac7d7838a47abd25baea2aa6f79da40d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Malik Beasley lead the NBA in 3 Point Field Goals? | Event: nba-3-point-field-goal-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8181818181818182
2. Question: Will the Utah Jazz finish with the worst regular season record? | Event: nba-worst-record | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | nba-playoffs-thunder-vs-nuggets-series-outcome | Will the Nuggets beat the Thunder 4-2? | 71,501,177 | 71,501,177 |
3f7bf57d0205b86927bd0eace1a45bbf8318132c | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xa7be0b8cb8ca91a2d4dd9ae3d12854821d60d259ea5d740f42ac7c91d3eaf07a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz finish with the worst regular season record? | Event: nba-worst-record | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? | Event: ecuador-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-gulf-leaders-summit-on-may-14 | Will Trump say "Friendship" during Gulf Leaders Summit on May 14? | 71,503,527 | 71,503,527 |
6a7a6265b12610522f18fecdb13f96448fc7b706 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x8b0da79415bc4d61695e223b2727881d16d343dfac59507f49de4fa5a172371d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? | Event: ecuador-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | Event: presidents-trophy-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | nba-playoffs-celtics-vs-knicks-series-outcome | Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-1 | 71,539,674 | 71,539,674 |
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