sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
af3b360a207191479f08d91336ef052c0ba89551 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x9b2c346d182cf4c1668b205c63860ddbc0869641451451301669d3e6053580b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | Event: presidents-trophy-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | Event: presidents-trophy-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest t... | no | 1 | nhl-western-conference-champion | Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference? | 71,542,414 | 71,542,414 |
262a0bd75bd851ec6494b3fe5c0d09ec7f3b7b19 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xc022fc3b994509037e6f70adbc3e40b497a6cdc11b6f308a12b3040ba9df9a28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | Event: presidents-trophy-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on April 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | stanley-cup-winner | Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | 71,542,414 | 71,542,414 |
9838108650f6b25a6d9c8e1fdd722b5a3e4e1941 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x251366473678dedf5c41b3064517c3c0a18f7b36939c6cc39296ff847d3759ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on April 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 55 and 60? | Event: the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-14 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66–67°F on May 14? | 71,542,816 | 71,542,816 |
6642d43e5782d3732fd054f2caa3afdfe4f062f9 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xebb52c87f788c8ccedbaffd37250c7382c3e5e7d52b4ee9979c3485262be6d3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 55 and 60? | Event: the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 55? | Event: the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-14 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70–71°F on May 14? | 71,542,816 | 71,542,816 |
3ba2cf93ab0983b906e840c151b15ad3a8824049 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xeb34560eab6b10cb423ff593fd48e5d5e86c11b03576a26a2f3bad772a3a2800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 55? | Event: the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 50? | Event: the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-may-15-5pm-et-785 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 15 at 5 PM ET? | 71,561,133 | 71,562,440 |
0a877324bcde6f06b7105202ef8f4170f121b5ac | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xeecef436c92357fa9ec7d64201429fcea279bf71d53f599441adb4b5efa20800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 50? | Event: the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be more than 65? | Event: the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-15-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $101K on May 15 at 5 PM ET? | 71,561,231 | 71,561,231 |
d0045c7a23d335adc9a6b6cc14c4500e865ede04 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x10c67b5db2cf01b838843390ee2a8ae553049fcc5d5cdd2cc381923d690f96a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be more than 65? | Event: the-amateur-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-14? | Event: epl-bou-ful-2025-04-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. Fulham end in a draw... | no | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Ireland win Eurovision 2025? | 71,571,352 | 71,571,352 |
b89c6085751794403f01f4f3ba8cff17483e39dd | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xd55d7af2b11a31945666f435cf1208f86a6029a944b8ce8908c324d74aa2fe23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-14? | Event: epl-bou-ful-2025-04-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-ful-2025-04-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-04-14? | Event: epl-bou-ful-2025-04-14... | no | 1 | nhl-eastern-conference-champion | Will the Washington Capitals be Eastern Conference champions? | 71,577,722 | 71,577,722 |
972ea8c10d38b82212a7069d837215bb4abb2404 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xf29fa22170d0b76f638c36ecb9adbdd57696e743e49c2681a748b1f149b1f84c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-ful-2025-04-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-04-14? | Event: epl-bou-ful-2025-04-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? | Event... | no | 1 | stanley-cup-winner | Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | 71,577,722 | 71,577,722 |
87cb8d300a6c3f890d94003b29e171a1983f7573 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x01d161595418aae6d43763684b03e0f3dc2e73c9683750f26424d50f12ccf1d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-04-14? | Event: epl-bou-ful-2025-04-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions Leag... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2500 on May 16? | 71,602,460 | 71,602,460 |
722e8941e20cccbd2ce349234808bf898f9743fe | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xda93c597b9916cc7205457012961144f095d737a94abcd2cedc21874e7556922 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund vs. ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100000 and $102000 on May 16? | 71,602,460 | 71,602,460 |
42233f8f3849d14e82233f7ca7c729ad5ddbb945 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x66e68ec90fdeb9a54f5f4d6e984eadfce20efb83c2230b719a97fb3a4261bb27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund vs. Barcelona end in a draw? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC... | no | 1 | epl-ast-tot-2025-05-16 | Will Aston Villa vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | 71,608,967 | 71,608,967 |
f9923cfc4ee4fa98eca7972ed616857f50d46fcb | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xc8e871cbab61467b9bc10d8c9dd4299b8c5748cb1f21623b14d545e57ea590c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund vs. Barcelona end in a draw? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on April 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-tot-2025-05-16 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-16? | 71,608,967 | 71,608,967 |
06901c1a37741a3fd193bf0155d5085c6714f963 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xed63c79c64f571794f7c9fb3d1b839162e7a2a01340d6239a6251d5dbbe65a1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on April 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 54-55°F on April 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-16 | Choice: no | Co... | no | 1 | epl-ast-tot-2025-05-16 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-16? | 71,608,967 | 71,608,967 |
fa85e441e17a82dc95d16dd09babccef3deefcf3 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x41adabe9c8d7408e9f0ed429e97a576464a94badf5e9c30db4c376a6fcc1110f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 54-55°F on April 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-17? | Event: uel-mun-lyo-2025-04-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rangers wi... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-may-16-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on May 16 at 5 PM ET? | 71,612,788 | 71,612,788 |
bdc941eb1f2fe53d171bed809b41c90a7002a22c | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x45690fa4be72c5b440dfb0f20ed2ddd8146a5f575463e713eeb62589c5bb816c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-17? | Event: uel-mun-lyo-2025-04-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: eu... | no | 1 | epl-che-mun-2025-05-16 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-16? | 71,612,788 | 71,612,788 |
42ba5f0a92f0c9102e8a13b803de61a6a51f0442 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x4f41dcf62337975c5bb40a27d807d81f6a9eba3eb0da2954d776f052d47ab6b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lazio win on 2025-04-17? | Event: uel-laz-bo... | yes | 1 | epl-che-mun-2025-05-16 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-16? | 71,612,788 | 71,612,788 |
dd19fc87b5e2bb9ff2bcbab2e5179285e98d992a | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x696ba4726b7a261960878b703c525857ba5a08ee7e1404aa83bd8faa1e1d8687 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lazio win on 2025-04-17? | Event: uel-laz-bod-2025-04-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lazio vs. Bodo/Glimt end in a draw? | Event: uel-laz-bod-2... | no | 1 | next-government-of-canada | Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? | 71,612,788 | 71,612,788 |
7ca9a14c178b3c76ea7578851851e05184605753 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xc69e059a0529b82f8a54eb6b40db8ef84e90030c945ca96c7304474f820de762 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lazio win on 2025-04-17? | Event: uel-laz-bod-2025-04-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lazio vs. Bodo/Glimt end in a draw? | Event: uel-laz-bod-2025-04-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on April 17... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-may-16-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on May 16 at 5 PM ET? | 71,612,788 | 71,612,788 |
a342669970570f96b1ef7b48c4e0711da162aba2 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xdf5e1fe13a72a6745e4cea5d5a31615d2b0ba8b2cd69ab0f8fd1146964a8ad2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lazio vs. Bodo/Glimt end in a draw? | Event: uel-laz-bod-2025-04-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on April 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the h... | no | 1 | epl-che-mun-2025-05-16 | Will Chelsea vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | 71,612,788 | 71,612,788 |
8a46035625b966a7052ff7cf96642f88d06ca44f | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x7b61ac25a2f193c49bdfbb7d13e06846c6439b88ed1c4639aa57965975fa3e3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on April 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on April 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-19 | Cho... | no | 1 | nba-playoffs-celtics-vs-knicks-series-outcome | Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-3 | 71,620,514 | 71,620,514 |
46fe72d22163f353f34427bed351e7e2655822fd | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xcae11991cdd052509981bf8ca9a59166edc94faffac22948b763efe61766ca24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on April 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on April 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-19 | Choic... | yes | 1 | nba-playoffs-celtics-vs-knicks-series-outcome | Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-2 | 71,620,514 | 71,620,514 |
f210586fff57675740ef7df49459429b69c33df5 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xd1cfd61da9ac8931fc3aa48ad05eb9687e6f925a15502eb23a04e0174d2c9f30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on April 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on April 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-18 | Choic... | no | 1 | nba-champion-2024-2025 | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? | 71,620,514 | 71,620,514 |
5184960619b45a43232e1655cc082f24ba599447 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x46514096ccc43732a96dda650665e10df3e39d465331bd41df544271a6af8975 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on April 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Con... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-16 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on May 16? | 71,639,819 | 71,639,819 |
d8a6ffdfc8722451903d68f24a8de4c6a25a2378 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x80147cd287c4780b910f34de32b4d9bfeb1ddcb897d4047426b0c0fd8b776e86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-1? | Event: nba-playoffs-cavaliers-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-16 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72–73°F on May 16? | 71,639,819 | 71,639,819 |
c1fb94a0e349e9128e7887eac404c8c7b7e492f6 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x90e1111a6878031e6dc4b9d2c067b63fc7c887ba1a0c072ae961e577cc98b103 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-1? | Event: nba-playoffs-cavaliers-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Event: nba-eastern-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-16 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74–75°F on May 16? | 71,639,819 | 71,639,819 |
ead1b4acc5e34ac29d495dcd90dd72f26bc20653 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x72f9cba6e1aaba7ef9447b2ed24e9ab1be0c4a966cad02e0e59b3fa0db03a300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Event: nba-eastern-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Nuggets beat the Thunder 4-2? | Event: nba-playoffs-thunder-vs-nuggets-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | no | 1 | final-destination-bloodlines-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross less than $40m opening weekend? | 71,640,043 | 71,677,895 |
9d36c00cb32d1d60af0ae15df9ec9c84bd98c6f9 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x20a7cb88730bd709c39eff84e88c822b21a1707549e0bbb1c42751ee0c991fc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Nuggets beat the Thunder 4-2? | Event: nba-playoffs-thunder-vs-nuggets-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Friendship" during Gulf Leaders Summit on May 14? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-gulf-leaders-summit-on-may-14 | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 1 | eurovision-2025-jury-winner | Will Estonia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | 71,653,911 | 71,653,911 |
10d99b319a525e19f6e69e7132857b3316604db9 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x5efffd4501a780fa90ac21cb3089d434d8c84d11679f9f59369f6be8af494dec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Friendship" during Gulf Leaders Summit on May 14? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-gulf-leaders-summit-on-may-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-1 | Event: nba-playoffs-celtics-vs-knicks-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | eurovision-2025-jury-winner | Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | 71,653,911 | 71,653,911 |
9c88a3190e93fac91041300256436af7df700539 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x6f8047af51a3399478d05516b4b93bbd2fdb1a26578e16dc54bb96b3ad30cb8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-1 | Event: nba-playoffs-celtics-vs-knicks-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference? | Event: nhl-western-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Vegas... | yes | 1 | eurovision-2025-jury-winner | Will Austria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | 71,653,911 | 71,653,911 |
502bb94dcbc7f394cc4c7862f4b5490378a5e3da | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xb35098184edffe79e5bced8208ecff22c3a1e7270a8fefffbe5095ebc17b2fba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference? | Event: nhl-western-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Event: stanley-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest tempe... | no | 1 | eurovision-2025-jury-winner | Will Ukraine be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | 71,653,911 | 71,653,911 |
d278e939e04acdad289ee99c435e9bf198793882 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x47c9a51dd1e87410d89eb0c1e3994c5c4d8cc4116f5b362f9327c06ba373a7c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Event: stanley-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66–67°F on May 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? | 71,655,104 | 71,655,104 |
1cb1f86ff517c210dc23cb4a785d627b4e04fb73 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x677826754ff7328696c121a398fdf495dcd2e04f84ecb6494b85b2883ccaa6ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66–67°F on May 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70–71°F on May 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-14 | Cho... | no | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? | 71,655,104 | 71,655,104 |
87842283fd31422ec5de0aea30d15293f3af8f72 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xebcbd389ca979bdd84df0aa4276a86bbd0d62517c776ceaeba552888fb0e416e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70–71°F on May 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 15 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-15-5pm-et-785 | Choice: no | Co... | no | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Poland win Eurovision 2025? | 71,655,104 | 71,655,104 |
4f6f9933701dca8a3ab9b73f2ac3b54c4f794ab7 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x386839e0685354df9419f8a67bdc2b2a07f88d8838df052b1cb71254865da741 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 15 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-15-5pm-et-785 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $101K on May 15 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-15-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Will another country be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | 71,655,458 | 71,655,458 |
d555ff8f41f13713da6da88634a5f29f893017fb | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x7b106042293aa1d0f22e67a15708a3e6700b53d506c81344fc2b0fa916a163e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $101K on May 15 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-15-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ireland win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Washington Capitals be Eas... | no | 1 | eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Will Switzerland be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | 71,655,458 | 71,655,458 |
55bdc151b086fb2fdc53d657c36143c955b4b4e8 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xb566e7a0d39f7566907641776dc8c227df83fb477090688f21b7efcfd55da46b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ireland win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Washington Capitals be Eastern Conference champions? | Event: nhl-eastern-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Washington Capitals win the... | no | 1 | eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Will Ukraine be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | 71,655,458 | 71,655,458 |
3c5ad056b55fb867a0d0365e10f73439059f1c93 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xef0dd80324f8b469934b76b2dc35a827e32330b0e13751a984bc346174f67198 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Washington Capitals be Eastern Conference champions? | Event: nhl-eastern-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Event: stanley-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of E... | no | 1 | eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Will France be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | 71,655,458 | 71,655,458 |
9bd61012b7f5725c8d02146ce09e9b8b609cce35 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x12ccefae278019b8e30961510a4080a1ccce8ad42d3ddd92b97b09d942c23681 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Event: stanley-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2500 on May 16? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | no | 1 | eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Will Albania be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | 71,655,660 | 71,655,660 |
e26ece71db9fa0a88bc32d3bcde4dac029ddd2d2 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xb86e84d3c6bcfd38eaa09ed1411e42fd0b9b27bb5435c8fa488aeaf9717874e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2500 on May 16? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100000 and $102000 on May 16? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Will Austria be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | 71,655,660 | 71,655,660 |
29a48b93e755a5146f3c9ab35fabc3af8b6269c2 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x1dd255b95e84d1b2fab6e82f9dc26dcd8e9cfc0bd5df81adc2da2f5b5acd91e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100000 and $102000 on May 16? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | Event: epl-ast-tot-2025-05-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 20... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-17 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84–85°F on May 17? | 71,664,071 | 71,664,071 |
d70c9e1cb986316597955f389cbe76e6135aca46 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x21a5eef9659971c6e4283ee1dd4d707dc733bc9306e322e2a616dbd70fe3e254 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | Event: epl-ast-tot-2025-05-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-16? | Event: epl-ast-tot-2025-05-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-16? | Event: epl-ast-tot-202... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-17 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on May 17? | 71,664,071 | 71,664,071 |
0eafab3255e4e19694ee3cc0ec41fd1034f22254 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x2f4d4813b59746d5ced985170530331befb399a25acc8540061e0ac8224c9aa2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-16? | Event: epl-ast-tot-2025-05-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-16? | Event: epl-ast-tot-2025-05-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on May 16 at 5 P... | no | 1 | stanley-cup-winner | Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | 71,664,071 | 71,664,071 |
25329daaa53af604cca4d4ee77e9841121f7eee9 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x965d3b08101318804f5dc94905b8345c72d6e2e66d9820d88638fd2e19a69521 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-16? | Event: epl-ast-tot-2025-05-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on May 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-16-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United wi... | no | 1 | 2025-bitpanda-hamburg-open-winner-m | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 Bitpanda Hamburg Open? | 71,677,465 | 71,677,465 |
945e057d23393e82ee1007005a5eed10d5a64c9a | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xaf51603d78545c838490bafe178ee9ff4c23d0c2161f15e0e530d3735229ad3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on May 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-16-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-16? | Event: epl-che-mun-2025-05-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win ... | yes | 0.908263 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | 71,678,047 | 71,694,350 |
0a446d5740977b0a1a0b95f41008fd5c1051f6f7 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x17e71ccb4813091ea09178bbca310745fea0308d504872dee10971041301f66b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-16? | Event: epl-che-mun-2025-05-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-16? | Event: epl-che-mun-2025-05-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? | Event:... | no | 1 | nba-western-conference-champion | Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? | 71,692,836 | 71,692,836 |
66de13e952082993e3649a1e8b85e535c74ba77f | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x5a49f5f7e019b4339781b27b3b51484b229c76f153fc199763f7d787f9473e89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-16? | Event: epl-che-mun-2025-05-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? | Event: next-government-of-canada | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and... | yes | 1 | nba-playoffs-thunder-vs-nuggets-series-outcome | Will the Thunder beat the Nuggets 4-3? | 71,692,836 | 71,692,836 |
a8b608f644d31e2282310357149a8a5241b0b58f | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xc312615ee72a15e6b7d3e5db4c01fab5ad57103f1db814a38890eb5aed331f8d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? | Event: next-government-of-canada | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on May 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-16-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | pga-champion | Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 PGA Championship? | 71,695,497 | 71,695,497 |
e2b4abbc59cbf449d9ef6e2d6789d5d546111ecf | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x3f816d82200f0198e72df1175e21d9f757e274307a5f93d075e3c14c7f9a4377 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on May 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-16-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-che-mun-2025-05-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | no | 1 | stanley-cup-winner | Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | 71,701,566 | 71,701,566 |
2ab5e53c16409d77b68ac95c09b8b0bf3b72c65c | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x94a142781b709904fceedf037859c3327fbbc74567af65741ce215e7260dd5da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-che-mun-2025-05-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-3 | Event: nba-playoffs-celtics-vs-knicks-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Knicks beat the Celtic... | no | 1 | nhl-eastern-conference-champion | Will the Toronto Maple Leafs be Eastern Conference champions? | 71,701,566 | 71,701,566 |
cbeff6d25e72466235fb668f02745a30e0c1c063 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xa90d2e947583a50964efe154c9e5464eeb71f49effc0d401a85649b2fcec6dd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-3 | Event: nba-playoffs-celtics-vs-knicks-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-2 | Event: nba-playoffs-celtics-vs-knicks-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Boston Celt... | yes | 1 | next-government-of-canada | Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? | 71,732,165 | 71,732,165 |
73369958347276a967f42796d9d4dad2846927cc | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xb7c7da209fbd943fd94ca42e0149e86895483edf5bc6cdf29488e5a269f333eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-2 | Event: nba-playoffs-celtics-vs-knicks-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 70–71°F on May 19? | 71,742,114 | 71,742,114 |
e8c9e662ee6a8626da2c73502e747263f9300ed6 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xc9ba0fb959388dca847421994ceafd85d901a8eb360bba626c36ee6d741bac51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on May 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 19? | 71,742,114 | 71,742,114 |
feae78063bf5db992d81c690eb53a863ec0f1f57 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x1c602823091231f5e130ece1e66076ec57569328d68e819bced94c7f23e83543 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on May 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72–73°F on May 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-16 | Choi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-6 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or below on June 6? | 72,438,930 | 72,438,930 |
e17c353f1d73aed7299bb8b3a20ee7c2a79a9bc9 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x6754a34b084bbce9977671311fde50288bf60d048e0458103bc5238480141b80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72–73°F on May 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74–75°F on May 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-16 | Ch... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-5 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 89-90°F on June 5? | 72,438,930 | 72,438,930 |
e598319ba73a2086dbbbdf53f439748ffbc34af8 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x9a5c84dced9d0a4727ff8e7563e9ff8de1b4d40116c891255c56b8136d742d13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74–75°F on May 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross less than $40m opening weekend? | Event: final-destination-bloodlines-opening-weeken... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-5 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or higher on June 5? | 72,438,930 | 72,438,930 |
e54cd7a4964b9199e8d34def82475ddf35b9a1d1 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xd61b1e9f3fc579148f97dc4e06e1a8fbf33f7e14ef8af1823a40c1748f417753 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross less than $40m opening weekend? | Event: final-destination-bloodlines-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Estonia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-jury-winner | Ch... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-5 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on June 5? | 72,438,930 | 72,438,930 |
8998d782924e3c59d62699c5c2068580e6c51c4d | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xb1a04a18ccb09f487a276bdad38c06e2e8bf5e578cd26794eee80f06685c7a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Estonia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-jury-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-jury-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-6 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on June 6? | 72,439,250 | 72,439,358 |
4d0c124b8b3ec4a01a355d675a9d902d0f63f6fc | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x1e7a5be3c56565be44f726d264ccb825c0ae7a9eedf6542fbd8de4ead66eaaa3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-jury-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Austria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-jury-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-june-6 | Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on June 6? | 72,449,675 | 72,449,675 |
3e86386f293f88907861ce15f7c135c7afd0a0ae | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x78debbfb8fd321c6caa52cab6b75cf9447daf823ad34907917fa3f7a48fb0173 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Austria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-jury-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ukraine be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-jury-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-june-6 | Will the price of Solana be less than $150 on June 6? | 72,449,675 | 72,449,675 |
2df7c59596baeb8d23406a017873aaf36c2225fb | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xa03be073fe47ad14ec9441f9cf23562393bc8b5c92bc83ea65473ddaf58c4359 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ukraine be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-jury-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win Eurovi... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-6 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on June 6? | 72,449,675 | 72,449,675 |
1e37e9a4fa2fe4327802f92bea41443380dd5227 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xfc6d67480a218f933def0b3ce51e6539b40a394d554499c928f1ce2541dc9e08 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Poland win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-20... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-june-6 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 6? | 72,449,678 | 72,449,678 |
9cc1f7dda1b2e02827797487868de45a3966f674 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x9200fcf5aa96c7ebdfe09ae2a45be57e39cff093d2359915b08ec15b8be9cc00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Poland win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another country be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Gra... | yes | 1 | from-the-world-of-john-wick-ballerina-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $29m? | 72,456,363 | 72,495,156 |
3e870c9949b5fde2df376220f9352878fb952c12 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x8cd27a8a67d87e992b4c8304ece21c2a62c8e4f368dc8533af57971fc8c654cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Poland win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another country be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Switzerland be... | yes | 1 | fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-bolivia-vs-venezuela | Will Venezuela beat Bolivia? | 72,458,451 | 72,458,451 |
724d12375d49256682ba8be8a48cb7fbd32baea2 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xddb6ae2ed7322cbbae9f823b2798c17f7fa1f9f0c4fdf7f17d805d47eaf7f8a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another country be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Switzerland be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Choice: n... | no | 1 | nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-0? | 72,466,777 | 72,466,777 |
538e4f65b19c9e1533dc8be2ab176f7066bc6645 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xfc9bf7290739cd2cac8d8c5928127756d76854aa04ec0c2b7c29d90468ef52aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Switzerland be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ukraine be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Choice: no | Conf... | yes | 1 | aaron-rodgers-next-team | Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers? | 72,490,240 | 72,490,240 |
fdc4c5f0cb597e15c634156b094d9ed47ff310d8 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x21d7c804b66f91d22c8b5979b447f9abccd551930640fa75af6ebc6896ac5aae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ukraine be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Will Spain beat Portugal? | 72,535,106 | 72,535,106 |
28bddab50ea0c4f135f352107e16a17b54641c84 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xf846790307fe470255ec87de7e087d18c4f4ecea5e8df9d0182f914536b3a1b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Albania be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Will Portugal beat Spain? | 72,535,106 | 72,535,106 |
f62ea15d0713dd7ecfa9fe9808841acd6be32ed7 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x2fc8ded7d5589e68007fde3c7c0af214fe8186749242f53e6000c167cc67561f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Albania be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Austria be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 1 | uefa-nations-league-winner | Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League? | 72,536,951 | 72,536,951 |
6dcb991ebf1fee32af1b67e2b587d832a457da58 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x0013bc151aac6b55a5e9c4a566e2d908c13978f727e58aec12c6261527e88e1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Austria be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84–85°F on May 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-17 | Choice: yes ... | no | 1 | tony-awards-best-leading-actress-in-a-play | Will Mia Farrow win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Play 2025? | 72,542,442 | 72,542,442 |
a893ac079037b8bca0133f70145ca9978b469bc6 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x3fd5732ed1fb6159608a2c4d56ad1d5c08f84024aa87b23f24802845667933a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84–85°F on May 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on May 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-17 | Cho... | yes | 1 | tony-awards-best-original-score | Will "Maybe Happy Ending" win the Tony for Best Original Score 2025? | 72,542,442 | 72,542,442 |
0f5bdc4573c656ed9b668670d23e1f9aa1e28d17 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x5e09669dd4d2341bb14ac5fa6be477cb13daf6cf01b6e17e5a5e0806c2ef4502 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on May 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Event: stanley-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ja... | no | 1 | tony-awards-best-leading-actress-in-a-play | Will LaTanya Richardson Jackson win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Play 2025? | 72,542,442 | 72,542,442 |
1e45d15302f00a204998db603aa83dea619dac3f | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x5fa9121673c53bd74a986785f1dba7b8ccd432d73964bf6eb32b760147843c52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Event: stanley-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 Bitpanda Hamburg Open? | Event: 2025-bitpanda-hamburg-open-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Rom... | yes | 1 | tony-awards-best-leading-actress-in-a-play | Will Sarah Snook win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Play 2025? | 72,542,442 | 72,542,442 |
ae197e035dfe8e0088f1ba290e88b2a90b405ef8 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x6688506d2b960d50570b6cbdf26a658e6f13797621f916bfb24962fcb28f12ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 Bitpanda Hamburg Open? | Event: 2025-bitpanda-hamburg-open-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9082630007468108... | yes | 1 | tony-awards-best-play | Will "Purpose" win the Tony for Best Play 2025? | 72,542,442 | 72,542,442 |
49883fa9f31b8e60b492579cfa4d6039d9f1e46e | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x7b879a6d1dff6a53a2da46575703bff7216ad404a4049eea4644d7380ac1597c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9082630007468108
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? | Event: nba-western-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | tony-awards-best-original-score | Will "Dead Outlaw" win the Tony for Best Original Score 2025? | 72,542,442 | 72,542,442 |
2c1905c6d75788df36145e7ac7f86e68eea9d80c | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xa57dee25204bc5e4e0e698912ef88499d6fde42287daa7eb4be0b980fe2a779b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? | Event: nba-western-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Nuggets 4-3? | Event: nba-playoffs-thunder-vs-nuggets-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Scottie Sch... | no | 1 | tony-awards-best-leading-actress-in-a-play | Will Laura Donnelly win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Play 2025? | 72,542,442 | 72,542,442 |
2daba31c070ec092735d66d3e38ceda56b634e4e | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xac8cfbb93b0d1795415efd8744e37f7ea9239b31f5cd205ab598a5936e18ba0a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Nuggets 4-3? | Event: nba-playoffs-thunder-vs-nuggets-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win... | no | 1 | tony-awards-best-leading-actress-in-a-play | Will Sadie Sink win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Play 2025? | 72,542,442 | 72,542,442 |
4d4be97af9a6b3d7df7b7dd9ea2b0bcafa9f5668 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xe16b91a852dbdb312a23249458a31ade4628e68ee09262af6d4617e4d04a1d9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Event: stanley-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Toronto Maple Leafs be Eastern Confe... | no | 1 | tony-awards-best-original-score | Will "Death Becomes Her" win the Tony for Best Original Score 2025? | 72,542,442 | 72,542,442 |
5d93b9ba48650ec4a0a400d5336fb92f5ef52ade | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xe76f1452a91c19a6816f3fa1523f4eeb61f6dd1f4326cd5090eebbcdd09db09e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Event: stanley-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Toronto Maple Leafs be Eastern Conference champions? | Event: nhl-eastern-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Gover... | no | 1 | tony-awards-best-play | Will "Oh, Mary!" win the Tony for Best Play 2025? | 72,542,442 | 72,542,442 |
2c5c145232d4b2e896f22470554e434954ebc5e2 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x3f58b1f4f489012ed9a9b0d4303bb872298260f76a67fbd61bdefe1c0f6ca95c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Toronto Maple Leafs be Eastern Conference champions? | Event: nhl-eastern-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? | Event: next-government-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the... | yes | 1 | tony-awards-best-leading-actress-in-a-musical | Will Nicole Scherzinger win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Musical 2025? | 72,545,890 | 72,545,890 |
d68194e1a0560f8aaf552c8769f36577a4076e7c | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x5080c2194b15cb58d050068ca100a5ebf6b4f0383cf16ed66ecba8669335ba33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? | Event: next-government-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70–71°F on May 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | tony-awards-best-leading-actor-in-a-musical | Will Andrew Durand win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 2025? | 72,545,890 | 72,545,890 |
e49157a4513ede53e4c188ec5ef6f6c8ce5bf715 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x69fd4e89c68ed2c29a0db20d88f6c8ffd75b8778bb3369715a92a52f16f86d1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70–71°F on May 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-19 | Choice: yes... | no | 1 | tony-awards-best-musical | Will "Dead Outlaw" win the Tony for Best Musical 2025? | 72,545,890 | 72,545,890 |
cfe7c14e84a734b7a9a0843cc72a76379eb060dd | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x6fb656932c32d179eebf2a84be3f7649ef43a9dbabcaf7814afb8952262d8c57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or below on June 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-6 | Choice: ... | no | 1 | tony-awards-best-leading-actor-in-a-play | Will Jon Michael Hill win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Play 2025? | 72,545,890 | 72,545,890 |
05c0c34ba62600b4b968849038daafbd327306ff | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x89ec4b6440c142d06f98091b643a5d5467706816756f4f958b3a8968ee428628 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or below on June 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 89-90°F on June 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-5 | Choic... | yes | 1 | tony-awards-best-leading-actor-in-a-musical | Will Darren Criss win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 2025? | 72,545,890 | 72,545,890 |
e85806ea82b2fb210d3f4ee99c765d9a73d3d343 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xc1d8b9a1023531fc72b21d87b0c9f31194b9997fd9ff106ddd451ee35628f792 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 89-90°F on June 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or higher on June 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-5 | Choi... | no | 1 | tony-awards-best-leading-actor-in-a-musical | Will Jonathan Groff win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 2025? | 72,545,890 | 72,545,890 |
96635f12fc8b8eb4923189f04b3e3f1657dcfbf9 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xc51b6b7e05d042bd999ac6b0411bd54f3c4a90780e7c43a02ac31b8c2e6b2ec4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or higher on June 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on June 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-5 | Choi... | no | 1 | tony-awards-best-leading-actress-in-a-musical | Will Audra McDonald win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Musical 2025? | 72,545,890 | 72,545,890 |
c9af525e82bf80368897e9c776d7e50d64bf0159 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xd6a3585170233f7917709a53ff27104c96337587b4a18f4e59fc01d669eeb083 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on June 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on June 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | tony-awards-best-leading-actor-in-a-musical | Will Jeremy Jordan win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 2025? | 72,545,890 | 72,545,890 |
e460758bdbec5826a59eb2a8d4efe53d9671cf47 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0xf73a0cef8450cf8f0e7c433a2e46ce7ee8d4dce1296e362df788681603d96aa9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on June 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on June 6? | Event: solana-price-on-june-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Sola... | no | 1 | tony-awards-best-leading-actor-in-a-musical | Will James Monroe Inglehart win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 2025? | 72,545,890 | 72,545,890 |
fd7097bf15fb7b3e8595aa31b83323482b364694 | 0x07a2b2c09f10ee0978f5e939d26391ca466feea4 | 0x01a3dba7c41883cd0d9d3c9f01cb369f1cf52a608067c849706fe83e3a0f7f08 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on June 6? | Event: solana-price-on-june-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $150 on June 6? | Event: solana-price-on-june-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin... | yes | 1 | tony-awards-best-musical | Will "Maybe Happy Ending" win the Tony for Best Musical 2025? | 72,545,892 | 72,545,892 |
91216adabb7024d22b9a04efd0811137bcd7fd5c | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0x5a11158a698503575c01d84688a97b158df5889af0b8890c8944f7a16358e9b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates?
Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0 | who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | 51,976,485 | 51,976,485 |
38853e68c9f69cae0dc4d957820a6a1ac86be6a7 | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0xb36886bb0cf7cede4fd57fedbbbf80342ec76921d567fa9958275c22e1df04bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15?
Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output st... | yes | 0.000002 | bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | 52,071,655 | 52,094,439 |
ab5af7ec6296424840e95dcdb6d373cb018cf68b | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0x2073651de484121bddaf813852fef10999f1ed861576d6e82ff4c7f0328d1429 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
Target market:
Question: SEC appr... | yes | 0.954462 | when-will-bitcoin-etf-be-approved | SEC approves first spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan 10? | 52,184,765 | 52,223,020 |
8cb41ca5fa75121ed3b7689b05e4d1665c2f4cc9 | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0xab5a824fa074725200fac54ead9ffa9c5db46ded28e430e41960bf53e32c95a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-1hr-after-etf-approval | $BTC price <$40,000 1 hour after ETF approval? | 52,212,104 | 52,213,449 |
36ec93c9445f2ef8a01af13f7215e0cdb51f8076 | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0x0d20dd1de97ba9f5d3199f7499481b67616798aa25a090494060796b1fff0227 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-1hr-after-etf-approval | $BTC price between $40,000-42,500 1 hour after ETF approval? | 52,213,457 | 52,223,039 |
655967363bef9d37716dd3ae6117d539b109cf55 | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0x3f860955f69ee121da47c2840509ada04b6776b95a1219335efa5dcffbac0815 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | yes | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus 30-35% | 52,478,935 | 52,478,935 |
ed401931dba063b78c09c780c556b112f70572fd | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0x4dd13b533072528934eefd9aa816fcc97253e7cd1d4f40c12769fd7f52c3e0fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | yes | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus 20-25% | 52,478,935 | 52,478,935 |
95ff77db38bc2966cd0d9ab67b6f845dbb43cef4 | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0x664886144f47a74f32ec1e030345d25b3865ecd0c39427dac77490e2cbe196c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | yes | 1 | iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Will Haley place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | 52,478,935 | 52,478,935 |
0beb05fad897cfd0077a94b90847b96e5fd99c6c | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0x80d5e8a516e60083f1d8abbae83a2b690e7dbb9c1c1c894627738cedb6cb402e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | yes | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus <20% | 52,478,935 | 52,478,935 |
d39224b2edf40fa0cba223525b79aaaee355fee7 | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0x88b97883f512e1ba03597b7f2ea82b9a52ed7e745547bce89c49f754ad22c9a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | yes | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Will Trump lose the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | 52,478,935 | 52,478,935 |
b20119cd788815a03fd3d00ad8259adb0fa69202 | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0x6e1ccefd084681cfcb06ef028b5a2122aa9d9a45f44dd8e7484e6372b009c6b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | no | 0.603017 | will-nikki-haley-drop-out-before-south-carolina-primary | Will Nikki Haley drop out before South Carolina primary? | 52,717,489 | 52,717,489 |
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