sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
b3de9b947e5c45c7824eabbed0bdfcc55f282012 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x56df1de13dd1c7e38c7e02bb0941cdabd576999e1ff12acea0bab21d25f8e226 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alaves win on 2025-10-20? | Event: lal-ala-val-2025-10-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Udinese win on 2025-10-20? | Event: sea-cre-udi-2025-10-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39000876424189307
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-10-20? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-221 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 50–55 million views on day 1? | 78,201,166 | 78,201,166 |
9746c1f3092357a15414597929a5b0716fee3e96 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xce89b783a8fadd6206abdc805bb2860cc7c8c548e912828178554d1515d56f9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Udinese win on 2025-10-20? | Event: sea-cre-udi-2025-10-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.39000876424189307
2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-10-20? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5978824546240277
3. Question: Will West Ham vs. Brentford end in a draw? |... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-221 | Will MrBeast's next video get 55 million or more views on day 1? | 78,201,166 | 78,201,166 |
7ebf2f20eff270a423fb57e551257e47e8e124a2 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xfd68c1b4d0811626043f6ebed62b2a23e8c48ef37746fbe0390e3c03e7e89970 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-10-20? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5978824546240277
2. Question: Will West Ham vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3084544253632761
3. Question: Will US Cremonese win on 2025-10-... | no | 0 | googl-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-29-2025-2pt29 | Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,206,980 | 78,351,261 |
e54243f51c637747a9aa2d884715d975d965c25e | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x074c63659bf1165ab50aa3115263a38476f1ca7ddf4c4593a4ea9944703c2bc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3084544253632761
2. Question: Will US Cremonese win on 2025-10-20? | Event: sea-cre-udi-2025-10-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2665589660743134
3. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-... | no | 0.816103 | 1-searched-athlete-on-google-this-year | Will Ousmane Dembélé be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? | 78,244,912 | 78,244,912 |
220d8bb4fcf39112c840da05509bdcb519a46f85 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xc40c4c2e9110c9aec6b5853ba10e6e219e430dec5dea2aa42ef21b97e05dae19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US Cremonese win on 2025-10-20? | Event: sea-cre-udi-2025-10-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2665589660743134
2. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Cremonese vs. Udinese end in a draw? | Event: s... | yes | 1 | taylor-swift-songs-in-billboard-hot-100-top-10-for-the-week-of-november-1st | Will Taylor Swift hold exactly 4 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025? | 78,248,446 | 78,248,446 |
8b32e669fc2d84887827e0bb8c783c853f38258a | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x87f7d6635ebc4ad941aace2ec5058184171a7a05871cbf351fcbbaf66900aa4a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Cremonese vs. Udinese end in a draw? | Event: sea-cre-udi-2025-10-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-psv-nap-2025-1... | no | 1 | taylor-swift-songs-in-billboard-hot-100-top-10-for-the-week-of-november-1st | Will Taylor Swift hold 6 or more spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025? | 78,266,069 | 78,266,069 |
821dd412af0d21b4e750fbdd2d18588311ef8855 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x4ff8f623fbd444bd20761798c874cf23054542f75c223285fc6fc4ebea6e0ef3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US Cremonese vs. Udinese end in a draw? | Event: sea-cre-udi-2025-10-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-psv-nap-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-... | yes | 1 | bank-of-japan-decision-in-october | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | 78,351,261 | 78,351,261 |
fc2ee2f9d3826f54e2edb3a287cf020860d78927 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xc38f9afaa3f23299098495e585751dd889f6df881b128ad1f32f63885c4b8ae3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-psv-nap-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-lev-psg-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-10-21? | Event: uc... | yes | 1 | fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,351,261 | 78,351,261 |
814ebad887e5096249177c978a32187f4788c703 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x2861ce76c685164e9b34457ef7f41379876302fec2324044c83714e9284a5102 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-lev-psg-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-new-ben-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-2... | yes | 1 | lol-worlds-2025-winner | Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? | 78,410,964 | 78,410,964 |
200f2b4f917a1afa04d4d826112aaf7f3dd0bbc2 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x4b8d41b670c375a4dd9ec2bede570cbc5a94e49e9837a16d9d1b5f2286466588 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-new-ben-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-... | yes | 1 | 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-31 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31? | 78,418,993 | 78,418,993 |
a9d6176d56c1d421ac75b51af0119b67f3081f22 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x66ed818555d6c0622f7a1c6190293d47fdf81dae5bc922cd389113afb85dee4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villarreal CF vs. Manchester City FC en... | no | 1 | 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-31 | Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31? | 78,418,993 | 78,418,993 |
63492e527cd8e8cdab115c830cf089aae84fb53c | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xf7b0bafe36303e0139d783e18508d1eaa302d4b061df81d841606b35b9671170 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Villarreal CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? | Event: ucl-vil-mnc-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United FC win on 202... | no | 1 | 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-31 | Will Dave’s Hot Chicken be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31? | 78,418,993 | 78,418,993 |
c5578e247c8c55b9d79deada4c887972632c9487 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x5cc387a272c1e7b13b4693de26c2c3ee07f35ea5ede7cf8f325f68257e7b7a92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? | Event: ucl-vil-mnc-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-new-ben-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | ... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-meet-with-in-october | Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in October? | 78,439,993 | 78,439,993 |
d4f19253652868b1ae0b9424641b883bf928fbf9 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x77bb67b2b0c24f1c5e4f5cd2d9975fbd9c2a7cd01f12b832072547b62d1cbf44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-new-ben-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC København vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?... | yes | 1 | elc-wba-swe-2025-11-01 | Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,457,414 | 78,457,414 |
345eb1e66f140fd9b4a78ca4f8b049e54a33e9a7 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xebe7dbdb9d78332b388a127eaa89fd09cc4127023d45b0105e9948cbfed1b3fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC København vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.43446244477172313
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | 78,461,015 | 78,461,015 |
d9e7dc7be9178b2dc4453a7690889c47e7962839 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x0a69601d8ccda200e6af21ebeb5bc64e76657dd573d7e1b09eb4e21b02a25132 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC København vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.43446244477172313
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City FC win o... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? | 78,481,998 | 78,481,998 |
88d062cc6851896c892e1249c27cfe847d4050de | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xe7b9a3bb729a5e2ba090932ae5c1bcb471e6dfc03f158776cac16d09b8b5ab92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-vil-mnc-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a dr... | yes | 1 | us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | US x Venezuela military engagement by November 1? | 78,482,011 | 78,482,011 |
4849aaf2acd70546f77ef24e3ac2668f0c9e53de | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xa04ae40d7f80c5d3f0f248ffd82dcc522fd311366907338a901440cc0c50f12f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-vil-mnc-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lev-psg-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Qairat FK vs. Páfos FC en... | t1 | 0.393698 | lol-t1-tes-2025-11-02 | LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner | 78,484,993 | 78,484,993 |
4a0588dd8c750d7dd3f0563aa17bdb3a66ecd411 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xaba8587c57fb3d6e667817df768f6f146419a240e7c166dc66f07ddbdf1694fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lev-psg-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK vs. Páfos FC end in a draw? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9973100201748487
3. Question: Will PSV win on... | no | 0 | will-russia-capture-novopavlivka-by-october-31-454 | Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by November 30? | 78,495,279 | 78,495,279 |
ecfb4a2668bd8aad2914f98360eaf23d952488c5 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x2371a52d10a33ebdd015d3e94ddc041e2ff0fc13669adfae5e64804a36430587 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Qairat FK vs. Páfos FC end in a draw? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9973100201748487
2. Question: Will PSV win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-psv-nap-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9836601307189542
3. Question: Will turnout be less than 4.6 million in... | yes | 1 | sea-ver-int-2025-11-02 | Will Inter win on 2025-11-02? | 78,498,483 | 78,498,483 |
11fea0719c75a8c52257281c464bfc5eaef894ed | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xde6fcefd9a8cad8fd99ed020b38d51e84d6523147fcbeaf59b1490bacfa98fb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSV win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-psv-nap-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9836601307189542
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 4.6 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round? | Event: turnout-in-2025-bolivia-presidential-election-second-round | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | fl1-rcl-lor-2025-11-02 | Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-11-02? | 78,506,816 | 78,506,816 |
db03ee305e2690167cc71a7c3bc5043df0aaf958 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x01467afa3046b3c9babfc73fef100fc735f441668c1da42b5a7da72a40061313 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will turnout be less than 4.6 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round? | Event: turnout-in-2025-bolivia-presidential-election-second-round | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be between 5.0 million and 5.4 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential E... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-new-2025-11-02 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-02? | 78,506,817 | 78,506,817 |
004703ae87069839f7dbd4697d29f4d283285618 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x09b2c7a9a339f45e676916d9ad38b80f726ec9092b4c7b7ec8605cba9e361da2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will turnout be between 5.0 million and 5.4 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round? | Event: turnout-in-2025-bolivia-presidential-election-second-round | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be between 4.6 million and 5.0 million in the 2025 Bolivia ... | yes | 1 | sea-tor-pis-2025-11-02 | Will Torino win on 2025-11-02? | 78,506,817 | 78,506,817 |
439ac9531960c666a847c1b1690ef718baedc9e1 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x0c310c0dd164e77c068f2a5ea99b48b2cf7570aea31965ce0bad2029efea1457 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will turnout be between 4.6 million and 5.0 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round? | Event: turnout-in-2025-bolivia-presidential-election-second-round | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be between 5.8 million and 6.2 million in the 2025 Bolivia ... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02? | 78,507,320 | 78,507,320 |
abdb39de02c2a130131ce1d86d512ae46a3111f4 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x0d7b29036d4c8ec5a06681480e2c25648c41d0630d0c05328669b7fe2c0c7a0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will turnout be between 5.8 million and 6.2 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round? | Event: turnout-in-2025-bolivia-presidential-election-second-round | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October ... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-october-27-november-2 | Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (October 27 - November 2) | 78,524,063 | 78,524,063 |
9ad9f07f27879533c43aeddfbb310ee3848ab64c | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x33911dad881adb208486b16cd7dbf8e835349d89b312b8e840db2b590d64c637 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-president... | yes | 1 | bra-int-cam-2025-11-02 | Will SC Internacional win on 2025-11-02? | 78,524,100 | 78,524,100 |
4d170934caa514968582090eb69d9bf8434e2422 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xd60215213197090a03271ae5a76e2be975e75c1be2c1b145119f939317878b86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 25–30 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-221 |... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-60-minutes-on-november-2 | Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during "60 Minutes" on November 2? | 78,524,100 | 78,524,100 |
c81d8742d707547e4ce9cafe582214fc472b59f4 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x2d09ae9b528352527f0b082fd41200659f405982d4bbd99e77f9bab666619155 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 25–30 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-221 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's animal charity video get between 18–21 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-mrbeasts-i-saved-1000-animal... | no | 1 | dutch-parliamentary-election-pvv-seats | Will PVV win 33 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,533,125 | 78,533,125 |
41a78dd2ef4b743c02ccf3eacc7afb353c89d45b | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xfe924cf338f90e1d90c8ddf3bb10f2ad46e19daf886009b25712ce26cff4468f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's animal charity video get between 18–21 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-mrbeasts-i-saved-1000-animals-from-dying-video-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | netherlands-election-which-major-party-wins-fewest-seats | Will VVD win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election? | 78,533,128 | 78,533,128 |
2f972918e9c03bcc3fb4c7463f90c0cf8ec7360d | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x66c3206394de07729df48e3d536aad2d3a69f583d91399ad06881e03f85fb545 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 50–55 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-221 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's next... | no | 0.669017 | ucl-psg-bay-2025-11-04 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-04? | 78,614,098 | 78,614,098 |
9849fdb219aecef707b9e19c0824b9dd22cce240 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xc40cbb2d7f5d2c43c624bd5b1d0b18cd3d0682b3937363ec7c1ad1d13bee107e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 50–55 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-221 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get 55 million or more views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-221 | Choice:... | no | 0.836735 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 78,614,098 | 78,614,098 |
99556c3dae7dc7d39ca6b2354773a03f9df46270 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xc7badca7470be581bf9e07c7d538f1b6fd30a952b1ef8b9bbfd6dbcd2f033a99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get 55 million or more views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-221 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: googl-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-29-2025-2pt29 | Choice: no | Confiden... | yes | 1 | ucl-mnc-bvb-2025-11-05 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05? | 78,655,486 | 78,655,486 |
a49d85750f6da31c7ba8a2bb3398e4a54d9a0a6e | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x9fbb9df30ec4de71ccdc0a73acdf5387d64bcfd8b1626083ee04e9c92ea56337 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: googl-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-29-2025-2pt29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Ousmane Dembélé be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? | Event: 1-searched-athlete-on-google-this-year | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Will Trump say "Beef" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | 78,655,503 | 78,655,503 |
c9b098ce45b959a9085f84dcc8ec7c56a312bf0f | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x2a701f6454a8ada8ab71e68a1956c9e25ef4ea418f204c4c711fca4e71c273e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ousmane Dembélé be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? | Event: 1-searched-athlete-on-google-this-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8161034626616605
2. Question: Will Taylor Swift hold exactly 4 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025? | Event: tay... | yes | 1 | bank-of-england-decision-in-november | No change in Bank of England's interest rates after November 2025 meeting? | 78,670,482 | 78,670,482 |
12082a9331dbe98ed8413db7a20f07c7a208705f | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x57516b64008af2afe88194125d595975a388dce368eae51cdd66c4f58cb5aba0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Taylor Swift hold exactly 4 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025? | Event: taylor-swift-songs-in-billboard-hot-100-top-10-for-the-week-of-november-1st | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Taylor Swift hold 6 or more spots in the Billboard Ho... | yes | 1 | uel-ast4-mta1-2025-11-06 | Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-11-06? | 78,698,544 | 78,698,544 |
65c6bf01d2339cf5dadc4e0004ea580279a1f0e5 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xacf0a55bd8d3e66e02d03de24c0a5d9e8bb64a7975f7c294b4b9d951a275eda5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Taylor Swift hold 6 or more spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025? | Event: taylor-swift-songs-in-billboard-hot-100-top-10-for-the-week-of-november-1st | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after Octo... | yes | 1 | spl-fat-taa-2025-11-07 | Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2025-11-07? | 78,722,936 | 78,722,936 |
739834421fb74777b09f88f467c589c56edabb3f | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x9e1d2259bdfe653a7809e09d21f01d9e8803e0fd1f6b1010d8f247c493de355a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: bank-of-japan-decision-in-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | ere-twe-tel-2025-11-07 | Will FC Twente '65 win on 2025-11-07? | 78,728,651 | 78,728,651 |
e901a9d1de9165df40f9d46435c1757ac43aa955 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x3bb28ce9b8247f8a76d24c15a6d8198880e8aee27d07e5666b9498428ea93b16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App St... | yes | 1 | us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7? | 78,743,021 | 78,743,021 |
fe446fcc45fa078bff07b5a1c67f2c6f0c509a47 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x0045b49312f21d8e21509e96df5423a784d8ead8d14f9e67e46af9905190582f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 1 | lal-gir-ala-2025-11-08 | Will Alaves win on 2025-11-08? | 78,760,566 | 78,760,566 |
e637c0af2e66f704bf1dfcb5b5b5e4e0ca1bff2f | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x0fbf99e9ecb2e787a4c74acd89925542c280cc0a21fb07536d8d793fd9b05c14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-sto... | yes | 1 | lal-gir-ala-2025-11-08 | Will Girona win on 2025-11-08? | 78,760,566 | 78,760,566 |
4adaf0cc2e086d76ff82ab244128991b821a446f | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x1635be25a8c1eaf7e4d0f54f379c1a04e6d8bfa85944b12d74bb4788e9bae7db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dave’s Hot Chicken be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-app... | yes | 1 | lal-gir-ala-2025-11-08 | Will Girona vs. Alaves end in a draw? | 78,760,588 | 78,760,588 |
2caa2add0c0065a7ac3435d4131a0efb43bc5aab | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x4164cca7c5da1cfc6d9684651f308188ddbbbd8fe1e54402f20c9df732386cd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dave’s Hot Chicken be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in October? | Event: who-will-trump-meet-with-in-october | Choice: yes | Con... | no | 0.12223 | epl-tot-mun-2025-11-08 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08? | 78,760,588 | 78,760,588 |
53c60f9b1d6b0b751ac61e0182a947b1213d3d9d | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x39394f14d9027e76034a5d662fb3a453391b6f121112c22e4606fe27bb67a917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in October? | Event: who-will-trump-meet-with-in-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: elc-wba-swe-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get les... | yes | 1 | bun-hsv-dor-2025-11-08 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08? | 78,769,989 | 78,769,989 |
6868d27a76a8af4b078a1b552f92573002cee8e3 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x91fc51124bebc25212e0b11acea0387be7764476f3f6d957d114b4cbeb82e3da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: elc-wba-swe-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | bun-uni-bay-2025-11-08 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-08? | 78,769,989 | 78,769,989 |
673352e69f0da212bf6560845827a08cb682c4f4 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xe3ce32c7242810f09868c02f46683918ef3182dc5b75ddadecfa6f3c5f556207 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-713 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela m... | yes | 1 | epl-sun-ars-2025-11-08 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08? | 78,769,989 | 78,769,989 |
a409065417c3949bed4800023aaddce27bbe7407 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x536018eed726926e059b9ea0ac28e3602268208adff2104c84a27a7ea4be369f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: US x Venezuela military engagement by November 1? | Event: us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner |... | no | 1 | bun-hsv-dor-2025-11-08 | Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-11-08? | 78,769,999 | 78,769,999 |
d64873a3383cfd05e9e7fd1595114bccf835aad8 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xbefdbc61dbf7431c012b126522ad734c6027cc055b2d388d3caa0d4f5fb2b4cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US x Venezuela military engagement by November 1? | Event: us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner | Event: lol-t1-tes-2025-11-02 | Choice: t1 | Confidence: 0.39369771977421153
3. Question: Will Russia capture N... | no | 1 | f1-brazilian-grand-prix-sprint-winner-2025-11-08 | Will Max Verstappen win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | 78,769,999 | 78,769,999 |
a98614a962f275f7d9241c37361a01f3f3a3d39b | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xe33cec5eb8c35e3c241c34fee7a50b8e86b90827cea660acc59c4dbed10bd010 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner | Event: lol-t1-tes-2025-11-02 | Choice: t1 | Confidence: 0.39369771977421153
2. Question: Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by November 30? | Event: will-russia-capture-novopavlivka-by-october-31-454 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Inter... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 8? | 78,769,999 | 78,769,999 |
58ec10f94faab3b73245b941e6060b7e0ce8ff47 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x83c3219f7e6226329af9c0c641dd3cfacf5601f104a8c8c4cfaef70e976a58e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by November 30? | Event: will-russia-capture-novopavlivka-by-october-31-454 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-11-02? | Event: sea-ver-int-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2... | yes | 1 | epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | 78,782,331 | 78,782,331 |
177e06cd2b84859b7fd9240d2e6cfb55eb108c76 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x79aa5cacbccb613e2a320bf941d7d07233f40297ba1f0b6f4fdb941b3cc52336 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-11-02? | Event: sea-ver-int-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-11-02? | Event: fl1-rcl-lor-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-wes-new-2025-11-02... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8 | Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on November 8? | 78,782,346 | 78,782,346 |
34dfc20cc8d37b9165c21a9cb29bea7fca125766 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x6d1ec0d8a3ffe7a4f4c1dbbac76f4e4e86f8811375561a384ecfc8a86fcd13b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-11-02? | Event: fl1-rcl-lor-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-wes-new-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-11-02? | Event: sea-tor-pis-2025-11-0... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-9 | Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on November 9? | 78,794,359 | 78,794,359 |
6b8fe9b93e58c20fb9c5b3e1165b69a00481174a | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x240a60702586bd89eb085d21d961fa84f309ea7a43d37c020c8192175978f5ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-wes-new-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-11-02? | Event: sea-tor-pis-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-9 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 9? | 78,795,393 | 78,795,393 |
4e08e58fe7ad09b20bc620e5cc5006c9cab1a0fb | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x3004fbbbf8717c33a8f3a67a9790227d84e8cfa3e93ab19eba214f397ace8975 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-11-02? | Event: sea-tor-pis-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (October 27 - November 2) | ... | no | 1 | cs2-intel-extreme-masters-chengdu-winner | Will Team Vitality win the Intel Extreme Masters Chengdu Tournament? | 78,798,017 | 78,798,017 |
4155fe237e74a8d40a722e7ed1ddc5ef59304127 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x71756d14127bdf71a69eb0672fe5c9b553eec3bbc077905f0440f8c46a81b8a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (October 27 - November 2) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-october-27-november-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | league-of-legends-world-championship-mvp | Will Gumayusi (Lee Min-hyeong) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship? | 78,799,293 | 78,799,293 |
e81ef1444ed4304c573724a76a4b1d0445ac7920 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x57b1bfe5b2379620371a7d678407346ca90e1d9d058469e8e68df3a5528d6909 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (October 27 - November 2) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-october-27-november-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SC Internacional win on 2025-11-02? | Event: bra-int-cam-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | league-of-legends-world-championship-mvp | Will Faker (Lee Sang-hyeok) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship? | 78,799,309 | 78,799,309 |
b2a27e3bb0c96ed670ec14cc64a19c37eb5f80c9 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x44ab4e24799e1c182c8cd5012e8b466ab99af77c25d005630b3a25901d7255b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SC Internacional win on 2025-11-02? | Event: bra-int-cam-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during "60 Minutes" on November 2? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-60-minutes-on-november-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-9 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 9? | 78,801,240 | 78,801,240 |
ba5a931d096efb428eefb77f7ca238e6a473533c | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x3fcf9d1e8a7d1cffced92251bebca71841ccfdb77778f5dc62e5d6f549b1123f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during "60 Minutes" on November 2? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-60-minutes-on-november-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PVV win 33 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: dutch-parliamentary-election-pvv... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-764 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 | 78,807,564 | 78,807,564 |
46820a70eb94d720498c5b35346b03689af90ec3 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xe387a0b82079704cc75b33cd733e82a6bddad04afcc0914c72391463751eaea6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PVV win 33 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: dutch-parliamentary-election-pvv-seats | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will VVD win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election? | Event: netherlands-election-which-major-party-win... | yes | 0.997621 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-764 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 | 78,807,564 | 78,807,564 |
3a470dfc64adea17f66ed5dc5e2bfce3db7fda85 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x10744840e475724e5759ebd4239204657219c1f46bff9ec30d526bc5e8644cf7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VVD win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election? | Event: netherlands-election-which-major-party-wins-fewest-seats | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-psg-bay-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6690166... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-764 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1 | 78,807,603 | 78,807,603 |
8f9ef5319eee71ce211467a99c8075b24c606d97 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x6a1dc41df5e4a2703219c06378faaf8c4870d5e218164fd5656cc7c1a4542417 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-psg-bay-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6690166975881262
2. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8367346938775511
3. Question: Will Man... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-764 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 | 78,807,603 | 78,807,603 |
74924ded986bea507fa50d8005f62a3ad09eda11 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xdc149ddf17e7adc2c2bcdd9caa4235ed3cbc4730f3ae10d2e26c3089b063a6eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8367346938775511
2. Question: Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-mnc-bvb-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "Beef"... | yes | 1 | lal-ray-rea-2025-11-09 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? | 78,807,603 | 78,807,603 |
fc16ef2c7999a5fa25c493c29068a505d04c64c4 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x77b4a1d4cd398a86c18b6bb9b5218917dc9f04b01a3cd4bae1c71ea345f15fa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-mnc-bvb-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Beef" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | will-polymarket-us-go-live-in-2025 | Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | 78,808,593 | 79,951,500 |
0a049daacd0247c59a7bd7e340e657bff2975058 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x2a8972708633cbe7d79e6b66f14b6654bd72b4329abb82e28fd9a62e19662f16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Beef" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Bank of England's interest rates after November 2025 meeting? | Event: bank-of-england-deci... | yes | 0.956436 | will-the-government-shutdown-end-by-763 | Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? | 78,808,595 | 78,968,446 |
06d58e0f2dca8533b6fb10f6170d1c1c3de70e71 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xec21462ef58f792b5c1ff07bfdc66401b631c6fb42562ccceb2de279f0e73788 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Bank of England's interest rates after November 2025 meeting? | Event: bank-of-england-decision-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-ast4-mta1-2025-11-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Al T... | no | 0.31286 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? | 78,808,598 | 78,918,907 |
3ea41806ac2fcbedb12920a0dd9477c1e4bb9328 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x226c47f7ad9e7f63ca333af165faa5f52171aa949f8b2695709c27c628629036 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-ast4-mta1-2025-11-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2025-11-07? | Event: spl-fat-taa-2025-11-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Twente '65 win on 2025-11-07? | Event: ere-t... | no | 1 | lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 | Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-09? | 78,826,791 | 78,826,791 |
72cf9056934b944ac5f955155a7572f7bc33628f | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x74110b0a47af7f3f45167e0db4dea90d26c8fbfecb34f9cfd25c4f1d55aa356c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2025-11-07? | Event: spl-fat-taa-2025-11-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Twente '65 win on 2025-11-07? | Event: ere-twe-tel-2025-11-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7? | Eve... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 10? | 78,826,791 | 78,826,791 |
5ff7cc878fa906488f99d3078b91c8125563fc2d | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x764d91b593a11113b5b046aca71dde1e290eda4f57eddd1d05c472955105846a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Twente '65 win on 2025-11-07? | Event: ere-twe-tel-2025-11-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7? | Event: us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alaves win on 2025-11-08? | Eve... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 10? | 78,826,791 | 78,826,791 |
493a67ca6b071dd2925d47f40cf4ff8ed60f9f57 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x938e1394347bce94687cf8cc9022a456bc7c8bb3e90e9e0b2c6a83489505a5ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7? | Event: us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alaves win on 2025-11-08? | Event: lal-gir-ala-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Girona win on 2025-11-08? | Event: lal-... | yes | 1 | sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | 78,826,791 | 78,826,791 |
0b3868b686845792bd6dd72eafcd81b4cccf025f | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x2634ae72b762cdfc6c01cfe491981ef8ad2f8ca4475d18b37463a5a9ffef5dfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alaves win on 2025-11-08? | Event: lal-gir-ala-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Girona win on 2025-11-08? | Event: lal-gir-ala-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Girona vs. Alaves end in a draw? | Event: lal-gir-ala-2025-11-08 | Choice... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on November 10? | 78,826,792 | 78,826,792 |
e8d075f0a44c2925c03aedd256255ac951c510f9 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x971b6376b65b1d76ddd60143143b5d68b129de1f91033a2d074c6ef2e2158ae4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Girona win on 2025-11-08? | Event: lal-gir-ala-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Girona vs. Alaves end in a draw? | Event: lal-gir-ala-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-tot-mun-2025-11-08 | Ch... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | 78,826,792 | 78,826,792 |
5a564c2479c18e62f01de4bbebf49e5337cbf065 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x9e60b45d246ad30f5cda9ba08925d88714c339780a2482bb6d3f3e91d087d4c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Girona vs. Alaves end in a draw? | Event: lal-gir-ala-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-tot-mun-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.12222953697608076
3. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08? | Event: b... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-9 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 9? | 78,826,792 | 78,826,792 |
b8a161b29b3bfd02ea48c9bf050b4584eb43b8a1 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x81a429bc14c2cb1c9867f3f23f41f545ed7ac4b96cc2642a058bb1cebcae2c44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-tot-mun-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.12222953697608076
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08? | Event: bun-hsv-dor-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-08? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-9 | Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on November 9? | 78,826,883 | 78,826,883 |
2ae2906b43ec60eee552040d6d639f15a982c7bf | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x9abd44813cca806e03b6af38218b6b9763e2f9574c12068f6b9a4e733e008b27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08? | Event: bun-hsv-dor-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-08? | Event: bun-uni-bay-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-sun-ars-2025-... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-9 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 9? | 78,826,883 | 78,826,883 |
d77b038275c7778151bb36c0616d029dbcc158b5 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x43adf0b813bb20327a71b8662a81df461c840e9d5a8d6b59b77dd1b74ee28924 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-08? | Event: bun-uni-bay-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-sun-ars-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-11-08? | Event: bun-hsv-dor-2025-11-08... | no | 1 | lal-mal-get-2025-11-09 | Will Getafe win on 2025-11-09? | 78,827,901 | 78,827,901 |
11e526d48c5ad45b6911891043e12f106fe0ee4c | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xcf5d6ca974572335aecfc2601490469bf3c6e34984a4d6c4b75989418e97d2f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-sun-ars-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-11-08? | Event: bun-hsv-dor-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?... | yes | 1 | next-nfl-head-coach-fired-874 | Will Brian Daboll be the next coach fired? | 78,855,124 | 78,855,124 |
96eee16fa2fdddfab395e2287fc7dc9bac2c9676 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x077fc0c447abfc7e094713e86d62acc20480560a6eb60bfbfc86a1c5f00b9339 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-11-08? | Event: bun-hsv-dor-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-brazilian-grand-prix-sprint-winner-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will t... | yes | 0.752873 | what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the government shutdown end November 12? | 78,858,320 | 78,961,408 |
8dc0fe3020283fa9b6c28695fe9c78a0c3bd5f35 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x05014b6073018829bc2dc891dc788aa2835ac119500c4aa9867b5da1e8b09de0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-brazilian-grand-prix-sprint-winner-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-nove... | yes | 1 | arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | 78,870,374 | 78,870,374 |
894678a1e359c68c76d5728683d7fd01e207cd81 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x13cbd28064b6377afadff4664443949ce574ca7c0507886a74979d5c3270b7a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highe... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on November 10? | 78,870,374 | 78,870,374 |
ef6d15611deab2b59f6ebc5a9147b2eb94e7014c | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x80098e132e711a4bae171c63419a79e1c18fbf0f3dc4a7a67788c0bdd8d28991 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on November 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highe... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 10? | 78,870,374 | 78,870,374 |
344690fccb745155c4a06a572d7170f5fdc1047f | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x84366701794731971cb37401645575953142477abe138a9319a12e6081616f15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on November 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on November 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-9... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 10? | 78,870,374 | 78,870,374 |
ab4f8e116f5fb60b5336182017a93070e4690b1b | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x08297954f76a2040c8a097b082fe155b20279ee7b2c2775e4d6b62218a34c7ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on November 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-9... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-syria-president-events-on-november-10 | Will Donald Trump say "Sanction" 2+ times during Syria President events on November 10? | 78,870,435 | 78,870,435 |
73938e957f3a047cccf83e6a6435720568639c4b | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x68c27cbb82bf8fd135e47f7ef96b5b5ba15a2de654310764f85ebba199ecae7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Team Vitality win the Intel Extreme Masters Chengdu Tournament? | Event: cs2-intel-extreme-masters-chengdu-winner | Ch... | no | 1 | how-long-will-trump-and-ahmed-al-sharaa-shake-hands-on-monday | Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on November 10 2025? | 78,871,848 | 78,871,848 |
9039aaeb0c12b6388cd044754beb42b7898e9e36 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xe27e15f532e5b4b2d82306bf28b5fdb71cea62737dbb2e3a3dcddf644ac946f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Team Vitality win the Intel Extreme Masters Chengdu Tournament? | Event: cs2-intel-extreme-masters-chengdu-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gumayusi (Lee Min-hyeong) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship? | Event: league-of-legends-world-cha... | no | 1 | how-long-will-trump-and-ahmed-al-sharaa-shake-hands-on-monday | Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands for between 10 and 15 seconds on November 10 2025? | 78,871,848 | 78,871,848 |
be5997d90acab39cea958d42c48a17b3a355c5eb | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xfff8dc8f6026130a9d9e3912bf8f5e38e002c446a71d475cce1cfea66e0cbbf7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gumayusi (Lee Min-hyeong) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship? | Event: league-of-legends-world-championship-mvp | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Faker (Lee Sang-hyeok) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship? | Event: leag... | no | 1 | how-long-will-trump-and-ahmed-al-sharaa-shake-hands-on-monday | Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on November 10 2025? | 78,871,848 | 78,871,848 |
4ad9da27125eb286df66855a8d975a6a28b6e0ad | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xdd4a63ff10c0c842616ce1b36cdd3f5bb5a9d24d535090ec6855628c338d6800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Faker (Lee Sang-hyeok) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship? | Event: league-of-legends-world-championship-mvp | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | no | 1 | how-long-will-trump-and-ahmed-al-sharaa-shake-hands-on-monday | Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa not shake hands on November 10 2025? | 78,872,161 | 78,872,161 |
f30cc71064e155c2fba13ba61301638ef2a5dba9 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x6de69c4838924ed152069318df499f315dd2fd2a12880cbbafe86895c794dda8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-764... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 11? | 78,884,392 | 78,884,392 |
f3c086e0903ef1e01a1f026cb11f951444ee4b0f | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x4ea9fba265cc2fb982a01f09c0f6e6a213b0f057287de26e54c49d626784474b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-764 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-764 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 12? | 78,913,442 | 78,913,442 |
257e11a97db248c22ebab40f8b8d0a2244e91970 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x5907554a7142584ce4e6c6113b1c17a60fe56607dbf203d5d6334f2bed55ec80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-764 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9976213130352045
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1 | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-... | western michigan | 1 | cfb-ohio-wmich-2025-11-11 | Ohio vs. Western Michigan | 78,913,442 | 78,913,442 |
c46e88096ce0e5b98bc52446744bde6a1d681d8e | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x9f7f4ff81bec536273a0093ae263ae9d76c4a6b8a7890f72935d8a8b18d7c3aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1 | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-764 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-764 | Cho... | no | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-218 | Will “The Bad Guys: Breaking In” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025) | 78,913,442 | 78,913,442 |
0f950903f0d85f658ffffe552d220a8130ebca68 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xd12a42fb0e437937ffc3ae47b9af7e949119d1873435cb1a4191f7c05bc73c01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-764 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-ray-rea-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Polyma... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 12? | 78,913,442 | 78,913,442 |
ceec9c7871609be03b29108a6f91da515801147b | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x04e05cb6f861aab0a88a405467407dea71d341b4e6b0366192e301813890a561 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-ray-rea-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Event: will-polymarket-us-go-live-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? | Event... | yes | 0.481227 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 11? | 78,913,442 | 78,918,128 |
536228fa93ce3efeee0a184a2b2d49aa865e4c3e | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x1bc922173daf67c5a1e8f35e0ef98eb0ebdf9e18b9c78cad6dff4807fa3214f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Event: will-polymarket-us-go-live-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? | Event: will-the-government-shutdown-end-by-763 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9564359186992537
3. Question: Will the Go... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 11? | 78,913,480 | 78,913,480 |
1cd28957e66d9a1355fd9cc8cb702ec106407806 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x9160161d25b4f417bce21d197fe00998ddf03129d0ba10d960cb75d4b2f8900c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? | Event: will-the-government-shutdown-end-by-763 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9564359186992537
2. Question: Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3128598... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or higher on November 11? | 78,913,480 | 78,913,480 |
ece6ef38bbae238aefaca80fa14980934c98af6d | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xb05b878b0065451177cd879ae2888aff62ccb9fbc245b6793603f92b510919cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.31285988483685223
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temper... | no | 1 | what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the government shutdown end November 11? | 78,918,065 | 78,918,065 |
8498293c5d8fbb772b0c8c9b23c8940fa00d57ff | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x71245919977c52d334137315be63a05b1cb4ef42cf6d8b96251519a78111adeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the h... | no | 0.999913 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 12? | 78,929,026 | 78,929,026 |
17900bbe6bc9dfc23957994fc06a2d043d6f906d | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x4c7ba018dce639894e2d3884c647830c12d7deec863f3bb821f894ffc096674e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-novem... | no | 0.839619 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 12? | 78,929,026 | 78,934,803 |
19828491ccb3a61019339e16d6c76cfa39f10da0 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x734525c64d1cdbbb45574cf3ef7f2496bf019d80e4d13c4663f054bda1f28ace | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hig... | no | 0.189061 | house-passes-epstein-disclosure-billresolution-in-2025 | House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025? | 78,938,930 | 79,199,848 |
5bdb93681480e5abc028254e4be0c6a166a0e120 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x1479b7a41b6a4e4061fbb671f591126255a2230c5b1358965de33501d1a8294f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on November 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November 12? | 78,951,453 | 78,951,453 |
7b1753fac4fa1c744a46a62edeef3d466867b1b5 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xae87f4516fcbc52353b0eb75836ef1bfc89086cae7c05dbd18d5a43f964845ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on November 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hig... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on November 12? | 78,952,117 | 78,952,117 |
9278d7174e6a61dec512c8afb948a2848cc2f038 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xba1d8294981a89bc42520fe65c234684a64a6643fea82de99cac50b869f286e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | no | 0 | gemini-3pt0-released-by | Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? | 78,952,713 | 79,193,225 |
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