sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
677a34e9f625444390e9d8c22f4eba0726749285 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xd7b39f912814f41c7edc9a7693d54487611f4abee1ae4ab6cdf1a704be8a33d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on November 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november... | yes | 0.94267 | what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the government shutdown end November 13? | 78,954,972 | 78,969,915 |
82aebc555a78ed3126b7f01646828e27a0b2774d | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x43f3182066eb76a4ea4dd169ca35f02456001646c1cd00e46be30805aa8dcd36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on November 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 13? | 78,958,311 | 78,958,311 |
76a8f1cc8014ee33185edad56c976c115541b070 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x5be250234ef266b7851664f0dfd07d7a9b3e21efaac4446c1d32471e5e89e438 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-mal-get-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brian Dabo... | yes | 1 | how-many-us-house-members-vote-yea-on-the-next-funding-bill-by-november-30 | Will between 215 and 216 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30? | 78,959,925 | 78,959,925 |
cb0e7c8d67939c7c2c8d2f5431c11714a1c0e4df | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x72da4c5de12d87bcaf6e35c8484893d67bb230717fcfb8c6c516b44bc038cef8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-mal-get-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brian Daboll be the next coach fired? | Event: next-nfl-head-coach-fired-874 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 13? | 78,967,288 | 78,967,288 |
94da5cfb872efe1dc6a0165ade8652368f85ee10 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xaf2da7ceff23ae3885f8fca5d468fae77fb364b489b3fac9839e86cf0a342ba9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brian Daboll be the next coach fired? | Event: next-nfl-head-coach-fired-874 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7528730053556281
3. Question: Will CD R... | yes | 1 | what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the government shutdown end November 15? | 78,970,020 | 78,970,020 |
aa10ac67461ab09115f27296a94ee689782b907b | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x55a469ea12fc89bf6b12c38fc764e35c05b4b520485adf4c8716d6369b38ad8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7528730053556281
2. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest tempera... | yes | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | 78,970,090 | 78,970,090 |
9510c11854d54f691d65b523a3e00984d958439c | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x8f8783bdabdd500dc401caddd12fea4bfae91543a8ea4458fc38e0539ffd3cb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on November 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | no | 0.414383 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | 78,970,090 | 78,972,284 |
d0e0b6cfa6d7651cd2f80ec22579ef29c2a6a248 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x93cb3616632292f873370cfe0fdf4f71f0d378f497fd7d237aff316ac9cb93fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on November 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-novem... | yes | 0.99975 | what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the government shutdown end November 14? | 78,970,100 | 78,970,100 |
aaa2c8486ce3307ba2371c89856989c90f025b1b | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x43f82441133ef912418dbe66851b47c68a48a6d50aeeb05b7802620ae3dcda75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-nove... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 13? | 78,971,610 | 78,971,610 |
b64adbfbb0ac71310ff9acd45f32b3c61408b45f | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x4a734269c5c25f8e57a780c1a75894c1972ac20a60e7b524111067e2125432f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump say "Sanction" 2+ times during Syria President events on November 10? | Event: what-will-trump-say-duri... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-or-melania-say-during-the-executive-order-signing-on-november-13 | Will Donald or Melania Trump say "Darling" or "Sweetie" during executive order signing events on November 13? | 78,985,883 | 78,985,883 |
d6490ecd8700731787025a5bb4e25499568f45ff | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xbb81b3600f0be926da66ff49e88cfdc8bd6d0e9a50f6b778b0596ebb83703634 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump say "Sanction" 2+ times during Syria President events on November 10? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-syria-president-events-on-november-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on November 10 ... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-or-melania-say-during-the-executive-order-signing-on-november-13 | Will Donald or Melania Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during executive order signing events on November 13? | 78,985,883 | 78,985,883 |
9674534977c821138e0e159c36454700fe722a55 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xbea5d5174cb5355eaf0f8cee780e67d0b22a6ff614ef7ec82cc2fe6ce8f4b111 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on November 10 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-ahmed-al-sharaa-shake-hands-on-monday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands for between 10 and 15 seconds on November ... | yes | 0.005164 | us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | 78,986,017 | 79,736,119 |
f9465a82199db58ce18032a9fb28dc0cbc028149 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x62b0cd598091a179147acbd4616400f804acfdff6f76f029944b481b37cbd45f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands for between 10 and 15 seconds on November 10 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-ahmed-al-sharaa-shake-hands-on-monday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on November 1... | no | 1 | us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? | 78,986,020 | 78,986,020 |
852fe7751043f4b905dc5cadb928851e09232bb0 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x9a1e320340488a0a26b7bbe5ee16e108978e969434c19c2bb53023ff7ce33034 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on November 10 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-ahmed-al-sharaa-shake-hands-on-monday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa not shake hands on November 10 2025? | Event: how-long-... | yes | 1 | uef-mol-ita-2025-11-13 | Will Italy win on 2025-11-13? | 79,001,622 | 79,001,622 |
3500ea96bcc615ba59b98f1d7595dbab1f10524e | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x9d92fc104241f557485c030ad54971c6d2e272af521c86460a7a570c61a860d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa not shake hands on November 10 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-ahmed-al-sharaa-shake-hands-on-monday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lond... | blue jackets | 1 | nhl-edm-cbj-2025-11-13 | Oilers vs. Blue Jackets | 79,001,622 | 79,001,622 |
87d47fcccc44df9e09346a565f9095c7e5c36bb6 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xb47c7ab48036bb798919713ab7332a8f614eddb563baddf555e1fd9b8c8af786 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-novem... | no | 1 | cof-sur-slv-2025-11-13 | Will El Salvador win on 2025-11-13? | 79,001,622 | 79,001,622 |
9f6cc15703b39d0c2e479146b4dc71204c4fd286 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xc486e7ce4e99710aa875b170fec50eaeecce40aeec166c2fc20c4b9abd673246 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ohio vs. Western Michigan | Event: cfb-ohio-wmich-2025-11-11 | Choice: western michigan | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on November 14? | 79,001,622 | 79,001,622 |
5b9457f86ea4f0762390bd2c1b244b109aa9f9a4 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xc5662fa55ddfc9afc08c36752b5af5ff6eab443e5564d3384e255b6d79c2a4fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ohio vs. Western Michigan | Event: cfb-ohio-wmich-2025-11-11 | Choice: western michigan | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will “The Bad Guys: Breaking In” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-218 | Choice: no | C... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on November 13? | 79,001,653 | 79,001,653 |
b63c68e8f7adf86ff59ff940efbfbb1f4b98df48 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xab2c5b334e213e18486293d60d07434650ae11ff02fcbc5b157613db2b76a735 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will “The Bad Guys: Breaking In” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-218 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 12? | Event: highest-... | no | 1 | cof-nca-hnd-2025-11-13 | Will Nicaragua win on 2025-11-13? | 79,001,681 | 79,001,681 |
25645193f522d65c9a5f6b906107b2e282369e26 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xccbed09b46a2b09721e9d1b376f1d327b272ffd96da444adae85f0b4a9f3009c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-novem... | no | 1 | cof-sur-slv-2025-11-13 | Will Suriname win on 2025-11-13? | 79,001,681 | 79,001,681 |
4f949ac6f0c827b22cb95f4827a7507ab2719486 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xe07e1787a39ab463a6338b333b2e3da957b0f5777fa93fbe3ac54d67f29098b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4812265331664581
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on November 14? | 79,012,028 | 79,012,028 |
ac810ffd7c136a7d6a886518de1c219318ca3450 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x7f64c0af726f30a1b62a48d9cc5fd31c1165a86cc363968c8db21b9c07eb41db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or higher on November 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-novem... | yes | 0.2076 | fif-jpn-gha-2025-11-14 | Will Japan win on 2025-11-14? | 79,014,556 | 79,014,655 |
510c30afcdb36c7bc0ff3ed06e13fd87bebde7fe | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x89a80c73982bb564ff062c69c4d073ff2995b44b230f34a351b896eafb3c165f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or higher on November 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 11? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidenc... | spirit | 1 | cs2-ts7-vit-2025-11-14 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner | 79,015,653 | 79,015,653 |
48a811a78ac34c95f6ed1297652e46464f91a15b | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x32046c049bbd4ede7d4642991aea5dca1fbdfcb8edb919f236fe616548d97cee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 11? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-12 | Choice: no | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | fif-kor1-bol-2025-11-14 | Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-14? | 79,016,207 | 79,016,207 |
28fb0f9246caadbba408364bf93357efc36cd414 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x9a5a3387197b4d3e913e79683280f47c81d89eadc9b39ce55d38c8bbce9f0d8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999125936444925
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-... | vitality | 1 | cs2-ts7-vit-2025-11-14 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) | 79,017,748 | 79,017,748 |
01bc90e53d75efcdaadc777d398b7493e4421eb5 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x5524f0e0b97241aafa4e26dbc0cdf436256ccb180ab38933dfd2f1b5939fc81b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8396192166512041
2. Question: House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025? | Event: house-passes-epstein-disclosure-billreso... | no | 1 | trump-agrees-to-sell-f-35-to-saudi-arabia-by-november-30 | Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30? | 79,021,828 | 79,214,854 |
9344ada735c93431bf95aa78388693c2e15540b8 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x8d53ab2a6109d99a89b68daa4d9646c0c63796849aa3c0ff45b711827be4b832 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025? | Event: house-passes-epstein-disclosure-billresolution-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.18906064209274673
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london... | no | 1 | 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-14 | Will BigFuture School be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14? | 79,024,828 | 79,024,828 |
cac6e59e8a7b6ab05cab542b8ef58360e3529eaa | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x065bec39cc8ec2e19dcd899e2b4fc664d0aba4bdd2f840032f97e7948d000ece | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on November 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-novem... | yes | 0.54404 | uef-fin-mal-2025-11-14 | Will Finland win on 2025-11-14? | 79,027,161 | 79,029,394 |
920d9e926a114f6e3dc88caa27459f978c2dcfa1 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xab9cd077df16527fc2c39b4b1691a961bb6f9859b9454f8c11dd2c975d2a54ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on November 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? | Event: gemini-3pt0-released-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ... | no | 0.778222 | fif-ksa-civ-2025-11-14 | Will Saudi Arabia win on 2025-11-14? | 79,027,161 | 79,029,394 |
4bd395f38aab7030c53ca0915220ee6f386cb70f | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x567c2963a9e2c2314149940e2699a0729a8bf75f40c1d2f41838d87fbf49b2cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? | Event: gemini-3pt0-released-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 13? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9426698158258153
3. Question: Will the highes... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-14 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 14? | 79,029,394 | 79,029,394 |
62a1da31e676a348e11faaf2c21717755be6936a | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x9cc3800556c6eae1dccb74918aa206746a8b241a5387cb0bb83b5e37bdcc22cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 13? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9426698158258153
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-13 | Choice... | yes | 1 | 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-14 | Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14? | 79,029,394 | 79,029,394 |
63d59e25573c7c0ad6aa6f547bd67a1a6507bd80 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xc94890f30f42d18b1035027236713a1fa54c363efdf01d4f34c485f575e1f7c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will between 215 and 216 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30? | Event: how-many-us-hous... | no | 1 | 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-14 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14? | 79,029,394 | 79,029,394 |
f1b7a72401568efe0e29a5b1b820c0d2837f3628 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xec112d56829d545653fa7d93a66f1e85b6de3967d0a3831a22d2f857a6906212 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will between 215 and 216 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30? | Event: how-many-us-house-members-vote-yea-on-the-next-funding-bill-by-november-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on Novembe... | no | 1 | fif-oma-sdn-2025-11-14 | Will Oman win on 2025-11-14? | 79,029,394 | 79,029,394 |
f3ba823175d958b90013538b665295fbedfdbd40 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x0c16010f6db7423da5bd8d50e5ea0b22394221d0ccecf0a65a2736330409594f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 15? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confiden... | yes | 1 | uef-gib-mon-2025-11-14 | Will Montenegro win on 2025-11-14? | 79,032,014 | 79,032,014 |
67d5c34cb8201c8261fda4d6036a50ca7b18069e | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x36425c098c5069c521b6d12fb57e8b5f4ef3701c5d43d7a4a583597c02d7da74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 15? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will t... | no | 1 | uef-pol-nld-2025-11-14 | Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? | 79,032,014 | 79,032,014 |
ecb4e6ae9889a49804c776059411607b39061f7a | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x5de19b0b1b06973722a18e4553fc66946b32413d4baff3a3cc0cf13c7a970846 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.4143829317638... | no | 1 | uef-svk-nir-2025-11-14 | Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-14? | 79,032,014 | 79,032,014 |
662335c65172ea73dee06ace2b41b5b93b167739 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x9ed2ce64f35d98e78112312a30c4e9d1161e7fb3541d53f779fa961daa2fad24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.41438293176384033
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 14? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.... | yes | 1 | uef-svk-nir-2025-11-14 | Will Slovakia win on 2025-11-14? | 79,032,014 | 79,032,014 |
136c2d4f2cbb6007726928052fd195c4fb38ae1f | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xb8f33ce07944c0865d4bf865ff489b37051ee0a3a5931080c932cbf754014083 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 14? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9997500624843789
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-13 | Choice... | no | 1 | uef-hrv-far-2025-11-14 | Will Croatia vs. Faroe Islands end in a draw? | 79,032,014 | 79,032,014 |
59b4a3942b5e1dd24adf296548dcbf9c4f23b878 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x25f308c3beb04f71a96032d584b9c0e1de94437ca7fc3f6899e484140341fc90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald or Melania Trump say "Darling" or "Sweetie" during executive order signing events on November 13? | Event: wh... | no | 1 | fif-ven-aus-2025-11-14 | Will Australia win on 2025-11-14? | 79,044,378 | 79,044,378 |
ab5ce4afc7a8a864acd48ab1838f953f4df6f6e7 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x70d952972cc3787af493908409a8d68e9ef0b2bc4f3ea0f7420519753edc498a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald or Melania Trump say "Darling" or "Sweetie" during executive order signing events on November 13? | Event: what-will-trump-or-melania-say-during-the-executive-order-signing-on-november-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Donald or Melania Trump say "AI" or "Artific... | no | 1 | fif-ken-eqg-2025-11-14 | Will Kenya win on 2025-11-14? | 79,044,378 | 79,044,378 |
a7509b77a51f1ba13747633f6a3f8f00c6ce4bd4 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x86d669c09877311417c7925744c3d1d7db30adc3ec07d10435ecc478df313dbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald or Melania Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during executive order signing events on November 13? | Event: what-will-trump-or-melania-say-during-the-executive-order-signing-on-november-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: US x Venezuela military engagement by ... | yes | 0.678491 | uef-lux-ger-2025-11-14 | Will Germany win on 2025-11-14? | 79,044,378 | 79,044,477 |
5692ceae6ef0dd652adf680c496d9cdf8787a41e | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xff8aca2ee3db6de413c2dccc91eb0d7bc1b217733d550a4605155cd7330d9b6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | Event: us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.005163504548740051
2. Question: US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? | Event: us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 14? | 79,044,378 | 79,044,477 |
4c36230323e010ffe6db84201e8693032573a376 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x0f925dfec7c919b49dcba4ca808b1a5e92cb1cd68a33e5c5301b07c28cb8f185 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? | Event: us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-mol-ita-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Oilers vs. Blue Jackets | Event: nhl-edm-cbj... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 14? | 79,044,403 | 79,044,403 |
213f6e56f24cf5e214e81497e451fb88c216073f | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xd2699a3e1cc439696f965767e556c50625a2d54e80d90ed751f2673dca96b2ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-mol-ita-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Oilers vs. Blue Jackets | Event: nhl-edm-cbj-2025-11-13 | Choice: blue jackets | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El Salvador win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-sur-slv-2025-11-13 | Choice... | no | 1 | fif-ven-aus-2025-11-14 | Will Venezuela win on 2025-11-14? | 79,044,403 | 79,044,403 |
b0f00d18c25b289b768a2339131ad8d90b1ea5d0 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xeda127ce0895e83721859365ec354aa03388fba96b50ae7a9072b7f9b585c117 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Oilers vs. Blue Jackets | Event: nhl-edm-cbj-2025-11-13 | Choice: blue jackets | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will El Salvador win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-sur-slv-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on November 1... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-14 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 14? | 79,046,602 | 79,046,602 |
c480c88220ed60dd8f0eb71f142adc07d89e4354 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x70598624e81b8e69551ab67526a2449d20fd5b6c8fd0a9ff8cc193cf005544ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will El Salvador win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-sur-slv-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on November 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-14 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 14? | 79,046,636 | 79,046,636 |
c9a451af090783c9c768881e938e6ea65432eebf | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xc70245d1dc74d3e8dcf2bab92b3bfed1f55e9e21f00a757db045ab09abf851ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on November 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on November 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-novemb... | yes | 1 | will-microstrategy-announce-holding-650k-btc-by-november-30 | Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30? | 79,047,043 | 79,736,119 |
72fae757c9fe73d4881573900f4fdf00e5c914d3 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x51a0c64d5c9f517d5a793377446b0624ce20563ac82a657f085719c67cbc9b82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on November 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicaragua win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-nca-hnd-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Surina... | yes | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-november-14 | Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.5 on November 14 2025? | 79,057,496 | 79,057,496 |
384797954fb786204f0f14a157ddaa5bc8f2f218 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x48dbd0ca63061fb1e953d8eadd434baf8393e17099921dec21add47de1c22c82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicaragua win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-nca-hnd-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Suriname win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-sur-slv-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on November 14? ... | no | 1 | uef-kaz-bel-2025-11-15 | Will Kazakhstan win on 2025-11-15? | 79,064,794 | 79,064,794 |
9fd51eaba04ffd62f0435b2666ca50e9b9e3f656 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x972114f9194653bcad94a6e57befbcce9192f68194e2e7ff0c679d040d180808 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Suriname win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-sur-slv-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on November 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Japan w... | yes | 1 | uef-kaz-bel-2025-11-15 | Will Belgium win on 2025-11-15? | 79,064,799 | 79,064,799 |
aa63c11d0c0e9a6718690d6235bf3d825ccf9474 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xe105fbf631f7fe7b32ff4165f28ed2f65c2f0c9f235629893406a6b11e8ce232 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on November 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Japan win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-jpn-gha-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.20759962928637626
3. Question... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-lower-strikes | Will MrBeast's trap video get between 65 and 70 million views on week 1? | 79,067,536 | 79,067,536 |
5d568122804a8170caad0a617df65d994eb8f3d4 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xc37f30650d32a7f17994b087ee91435fcffc90b8db65925a81a8e074f737c435 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Japan win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-jpn-gha-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.20759962928637626
2. Question: Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner | Event: cs2-ts7-vit-2025-11-14 | Choice: spirit | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-14? |... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-lower-strikes | Will MrBeast's trap video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1? | 79,067,555 | 79,067,555 |
f3b4c4683be1502625230a70c6f03f79bae9b193 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xa2afe366157d4bb47d596575f6dcffcc505eace6f56fe69983babee9c5802602 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner | Event: cs2-ts7-vit-2025-11-14 | Choice: spirit | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-kor1-bol-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) | Eve... | no | 1 | fif-bra-sen-2025-11-15 | Will Brazil win on 2025-11-15? | 79,068,979 | 79,068,979 |
f618fe7513b835589a4612fc8d6113b6075683d4 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x359520d567dda381c2f9c96a8d6aa7c229bb562ab4fa7b0c13ebe9ac57bd7db9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-kor1-bol-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) | Event: cs2-ts7-vit-2025-11-14 | Choice: vitality | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November... | no | 0.586207 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-15 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 15? | 79,077,865 | 79,089,753 |
aeef07cea67aa5714334a91182e5ba1000db71ee | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x1979b18e3faafb6b01b4a0a96d39eea928d99c34407920e23e1e6049efaf54ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) | Event: cs2-ts7-vit-2025-11-14 | Choice: vitality | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30? | Event: trump-agrees-to-sell-f-35-to-saudi-arabia-by-november-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | uef-lie-wal-2025-11-15 | Will Wales win on 2025-11-15? | 79,086,562 | 79,086,562 |
3888a9075aeb8e0c571f6c024fd8193371d87619 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x4468d60c53d1763f8f9434a9c5cc304e2041bc1a9529f05d2fc3faa49dd53f90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30? | Event: trump-agrees-to-sell-f-35-to-saudi-arabia-by-november-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BigFuture School be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on November 15? | 79,086,581 | 79,086,581 |
404fccfb301de0d2556fd8d3ae6b7ec6d9f8d316 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x13965dbb0da524bd6037aa130420eddef41879d4d48c5ea4f5ac5087a3a6bcee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BigFuture School be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Finland win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-fin-mal-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.544039553195385... | no | 1 | fif-mex-ury-2025-11-15 | Will Uruguay win on 2025-11-15? | 79,086,631 | 79,086,631 |
5c9b054a0f1c2b7d485b4fe261d70aabf9f7207e | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x38ffcb53854781056775b21a612a0a3c8a88a0a37b9940171ab35b19645a5a65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Finland win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-fin-mal-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5440395531953854
2. Question: Will Saudi Arabia win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-ksa-civ-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7782217782217782
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York ... | yes | 1 | uef-cyp-aut-2025-11-15 | Will Austria win on 2025-11-15? | 79,086,631 | 79,086,631 |
e2b56e06bf9266641912ef2ab6470fd031bbd93b | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x199493f8913d58be677a5b06836661e3d04fd1e24dbbc3716905b9105061f5aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Saudi Arabia win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-ksa-civ-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7782217782217782
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | uef-geo-esp-2025-11-15 | Will Georgia vs. Spain end in a draw? | 79,086,635 | 79,086,635 |
88028f481a82e416549e8366970d1999cf3455d5 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x9683a3e67f3dd966e7983f7ade6d6d34ea5058e42ab9db0ec2f1fcbc7c970d08 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-... | no | 1 | uef-slv-kvx-2025-11-15 | Will Slovenia win on 2025-11-15? | 79,086,635 | 79,086,635 |
b2c7b06abfed99ac97f81d5e8a0dde73e0dcb52d | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x9a67fc201ef076f81a903b7bfe27b1579b8cada13ab50cde055a08c9b40479fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-o... | no | 1 | uef-cyp-aut-2025-11-15 | Will Cyprus win on 2025-11-15? | 79,086,635 | 79,086,635 |
7c836e9b2680e2d79281b4a173e7d641db52214b | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x32bf30ef446721900abc7a61e4ad0c875d233dc6d12cca4e138ff95d5c90c877 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oman win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-oma-sdn-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Monteneg... | yes | 1 | arch-will-russia-capture-myrnohard-by-september-30 | Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15? | 79,086,802 | 79,086,802 |
937bfe90e91c5c98b6bd386a1261358b52eaca03 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x486be5adc1c1fbc6e796ebccd41b48b15368c55f1abcd3b50dcb9b51cf5a18ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oman win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-oma-sdn-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Montenegro win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-gib-mon-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-pol-nld-2025-11-14 | Choice... | no | 1 | uef-che-swe-2025-11-15 | Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-15? | 79,086,812 | 79,086,812 |
aa1672b0ee64ccad321d728d3675e792e3021716 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x8a279ca49b67edf967199ae9413902b25d132cb35a317336ad5d4c6ec348834e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Montenegro win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-gib-mon-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-pol-nld-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-svk-nir-2025-11... | no | 1 | fif-usa-par-2025-11-15 | Will United States win on 2025-11-15? | 79,086,812 | 79,086,812 |
4ee81611701568f8785e37a3f1741f25a8ac5bda | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xd20c0fe429383533b71bbce52ebde62628e80771c783a4103072df119450477f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-pol-nld-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-svk-nir-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovakia win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-svk-nir-2025-11-14... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-15 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or higher on November 15? | 79,088,604 | 79,088,604 |
22aec57704b4279239a9f0009ab25f9be6e83357 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xf1d7a0e06dfe4773d0c653fd17a8daf7088da55c90fa800dcc57085d66ef0046 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-svk-nir-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-svk-nir-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia vs. Faroe Islands end in a draw? | Event: uef-hrv-far... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-15 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 15? | 79,088,604 | 79,088,604 |
bf8e6d3feb54cafd90bde4f8686915888a31f32d | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xf4b2470a0b93411e782734c70c37f29a9a7549ba7480fe625508659eb8b2d7b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Slovakia win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-svk-nir-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Croatia vs. Faroe Islands end in a draw? | Event: uef-hrv-far-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-ven-aus-2025-1... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-15 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on November 15? | 79,088,604 | 79,088,604 |
778e9e800c61d28de50a1d67f2041cd71a719bd7 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x49fcb61e0be2a69b7a5b26e74b7b05d0a997f12606bebdb294c565efe8e53348 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Croatia vs. Faroe Islands end in a draw? | Event: uef-hrv-far-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-ven-aus-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kenya win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-ken-eqg-2025-11-14... | yes | 0.26 | uniswap-cup | Will ZKsync win 2025 Uniswap Cup? | 79,109,299 | 79,129,941 |
fdcb0264f8cb13724efa116af20b55a013524836 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x59e9c4253f30e137d907fd018df9ed6da1aa68d09bb8d06e336b5eeb18436771 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-ven-aus-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kenya win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-ken-eqg-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-lux-ger-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes... | no | 0 | trump-announces-new-drug-boat-strike-by-467 | Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 16? | 79,109,370 | 79,129,202 |
90c907e081d1a78885b2034d78cb604ae9d85536 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x96d85360644d7febe3f1c9dd73e2cc33bb913fd542c89ad4cd1ab2b799e08144 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kenya win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-ken-eqg-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-lux-ger-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6784908498370519
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on No... | no | 1 | uef-hun-ire-2025-11-16 | Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-11-16? | 79,110,210 | 79,110,210 |
96d091488b125d19c0c11ab5d5b39375058e2919 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xc3c138f815042f976092a71455549286e7d4959ec44e5946eaf9b53640ea22f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-lux-ger-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6784908498370519
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | uef-prt-arm-2025-11-16 | Will Portugal win on 2025-11-16? | 79,110,317 | 79,110,317 |
52adfb2861377a1848ece689ddf448c074fdb562 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xa663e4d39afc374bda02c089e528071e03981456a64b902b63f004b0740ad66f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-novem... | no | 0.648352 | uef-hun-ire-2025-11-16 | Will Hungary win on 2025-11-16? | 79,110,317 | 79,111,248 |
ccbe375ca2df9076382ab41b1b615e4ee9da9ed1 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x4e3ec6b7a46a89448f210d5796727090756adbabdd27fc72b34982637a12e2d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Venezuela win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-ven-aus-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the h... | yes | 1 | uef-aze-fra-2025-11-16 | Will France win on 2025-11-16? | 79,129,202 | 79,129,202 |
d5e9a8a7d8e2fd378471cd931c58e4ac50646f8b | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xaa35bfbb79fdee6ec8c659ba3fffefa8fc23e37683ba410f118f56ac6c2a5ba1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Venezuela win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-ven-aus-2025-11-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will t... | yes | 1 | uef-alb-eng-2025-11-16 | Will England win on 2025-11-16? | 79,129,202 | 79,129,202 |
5a74e2d9ffd0aa28836bc19a4d0e255c1d3781b3 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x8ff76b74056921ff646256ece475f871b2c61e5297bc7f15196dd493b477bc62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | uniswap-cup | Will Ledger win 2025 Uniswap Cup? | 79,129,238 | 79,129,238 |
412e398489381023c0ba2513ec74e63b4b12c61d | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xa5923b56cac3f740336c0dd01c8801641003aa5ae88b61d36317b0499533bf1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30? | Event: will-microstrategy-announce-holding-650k-btc-... | islanders | 1 | nhl-nyi-col-2025-11-16 | Islanders vs. Avalanche | 79,129,238 | 79,129,238 |
0b16542a6c4a06366a41b2a751c0dd240f856fb7 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x9eec02338e4ca65b2ce072092b3b1e9c3b455f5985df8ec837046e3a0711731f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30? | Event: will-microstrategy-announce-holding-650k-btc-by-november-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.5 on November 14 2025? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-november-14 | C... | no | 1 | uef-alb-eng-2025-11-16 | Will Albania win on 2025-11-16? | 79,129,895 | 79,129,895 |
97172283d20d6b23202c3e96aa930d82f5cb24f4 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xb2e0efaccef98ac0c2f1d9ef3de1275189f1a1cb5b09bdc50da4423e7aad4e99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.5 on November 14 2025? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-november-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kazakhstan win on 2025-11-15? | Event: uef-kaz-bel-2025-11-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win on 202... | yes | 1 | uef-isr-mol-2025-11-16 | Will Israel win on 2025-11-16? | 79,129,895 | 79,129,895 |
3a13dddffd2f9e6f82de57e99cc94fafaf9cec75 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xf7820eb901a75ab1cec749205212c1e43b388d7974f5f7f896c0b636bba8d71a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kazakhstan win on 2025-11-15? | Event: uef-kaz-bel-2025-11-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Belgium win on 2025-11-15? | Event: uef-kaz-bel-2025-11-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's trap video get between 65 and 70 million views on week 1? ... | no | 1 | caf-nga-cdr-2025-11-16 | Will Nigeria win on 2025-11-16? | 79,129,895 | 79,129,895 |
0ed91ad54c3f327fb8a7e297e1e87f58376ea76d | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x9b792b2218e77b4c168b8cb603af34ad3703f2753d326f0f444de3711228116b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium win on 2025-11-15? | Event: uef-kaz-bel-2025-11-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's trap video get between 65 and 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-lower-strikes | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | which-candidates-advance-to-2025-chilean-presidential-runoff | Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | 79,147,184 | 79,147,184 |
f9ac83a016d1078e9bcde3ce668a0ccbe1fc566f | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xa6125ce6b81be8b7cb3c548ec6aad3e56dfb8a17d23a68264735cec81ae419cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's trap video get between 65 and 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-lower-strikes | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's trap video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video... | yes | 1 | now-you-see-me-now-you-dont-rotten-tomatoes-score-329 | Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | 79,147,337 | 79,147,337 |
44845250d58b32e3479751e75409a08a21dace8c | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xcad9550267212e0c1584cdc85e742b2df1c9b45ed17172f16527a6211b70bffc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's trap video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-lower-strikes | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brazil win on 2025-11-15? | Event: fif-bra-sen-2025-11-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 0.605762 | what-will-trump-say-during-mcdonalds-summit-on-november-17 | Will Trump say "Fry" or "Fries" during the McDonald's Summit on November 17? | 79,158,243 | 79,158,243 |
7b150dd2fd92780167ef391ce84116009dbb8a3a | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x5469c4eaa3e8dc2f4df9631757e0c04e7393fa2b84cd6dd05cfb74ffd332cf8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brazil win on 2025-11-15? | Event: fif-bra-sen-2025-11-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5862068965517241
3. Quest... | clippers | 0.21588 | nba-lac-phi-2025-11-17 | Clippers vs. 76ers | 79,162,409 | 79,162,409 |
bf2dec1d2e30c91deb817cbe3f12a0dd2087b5f2 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xd81a5549f60fa3589ccdf9a4aa8d3c01e73b28bc86fc404531562f53105ad05d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5862068965517241
2. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-11-15? | Event: uef-lie-wal-2025-11-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | fif-cha-moz-2025-11-17 | Will Mozambique win on 2025-11-17? | 79,177,112 | 79,177,112 |
7a7ed84d96fc07f28f0099f6b022efa7bb429f66 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xcb42ce799c32e8f0bbe7df6a20396a7ecb1ca494316c5df0027ab89d941e1ca7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-11-15? | Event: uef-lie-wal-2025-11-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on November 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Uruguay w... | yes | 0.503887 | what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | 79,188,508 | 79,197,083 |
cc5ed4ca17f07210f2459e47ef404da4ea0b89ce | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x8749e1752abfa8b2fb45be57183b6efc55d90698458972bf39be3fc5eccec857 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on November 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-11-15? | Event: fif-mex-ury-2025-11-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Austria ... | yes | 1 | fif-kor1-gha-2025-11-18 | Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-18? | 79,190,852 | 79,190,852 |
49e203aa9be234281deb85ec5d6a5077839f76b3 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x8c5e32128a97bde70fd921ac86fef05b19e4a383683ce25b89cb258368d1ca24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-11-15? | Event: fif-mex-ury-2025-11-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Austria win on 2025-11-15? | Event: uef-cyp-aut-2025-11-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgia vs. Spain end in a draw? | Event: uef-geo-esp-2025-11-15 | Choi... | yes | 1 | fif-jpn-bol-2025-11-18 | Will Japan win on 2025-11-18? | 79,190,852 | 79,190,852 |
bdd76e3687273b16e220884ff78e96a138f529da | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xa40ddeab218544becbe644c682df1659772c6e7d1eabd70f7b85ec44ed157496 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Austria win on 2025-11-15? | Event: uef-cyp-aut-2025-11-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Georgia vs. Spain end in a draw? | Event: uef-geo-esp-2025-11-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-11-15? | Event: uef-slv-kvx-2025-11-15 | Cho... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on November 18? | 79,190,852 | 79,190,852 |
5e3f5d393e79053c4cc25964e31f3004f297f772 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x27692953cc0d78ef8f897ae40be5dec7f13832611d3e4347c23d6fbbfc2da61e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Georgia vs. Spain end in a draw? | Event: uef-geo-esp-2025-11-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-11-15? | Event: uef-slv-kvx-2025-11-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cyprus win on 2025-11-15? | Event: uef-cyp-aut-2025-11-15 | Choic... | no | 0 | will-anyone-vote-no-to-releasing-the-epstein-files | Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files? | 79,194,695 | 79,214,854 |
b669324b1f623a33f7b96770e15a90000dad5e8c | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xeef60f2c3ee6c4de28a61afcfcb909a67ea3a656961d49a5d250d52832c19da3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-11-15? | Event: uef-slv-kvx-2025-11-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cyprus win on 2025-11-15? | Event: uef-cyp-aut-2025-11-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15? | Event: arch-will-russia-captu... | yes | 1 | what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025? | 79,197,083 | 79,197,083 |
ba2297ed63c7416ca47168570b7d1570d9760835 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xfd757bb10ac2b3e8fdffa1278639ea26d1c46523c5a39e7852fe6d80c5bfa1ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cyprus win on 2025-11-15? | Event: uef-cyp-aut-2025-11-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15? | Event: arch-will-russia-capture-myrnohard-by-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-15?... | yes | 1 | fif-ksa-alg-2025-11-18 | Will Algeria win on 2025-11-18? | 79,198,695 | 79,198,695 |
85ed68426e92bc195c2f10ca94d12eb198ffd22e | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x48abb199908c5804db7bafc4fffab707ffc0adf39d746671eb49154145bd0792 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15? | Event: arch-will-russia-capture-myrnohard-by-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-15? | Event: uef-che-swe-2025-11-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will United States win on 2025... | yes | 1 | how-many-house-members-vote-yea-on-an-epstein-disclosure-bill-higher-brackets | Will 410 or more house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill? | 79,214,854 | 79,214,854 |
5642007ef997c8dc38b344e193d339c388129a0f | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x523c0a370b7b8158307e54525b534002395688622395458162277adb5562b6e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-15? | Event: uef-che-swe-2025-11-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will United States win on 2025-11-15? | Event: fif-usa-par-2025-11-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or higher on ... | yes | 1 | uef-rom-smr-2025-11-18 | Will Romania win on 2025-11-18? | 79,214,854 | 79,214,854 |
05a776cb3b3afa816962b4c03d4892bd19dc35d2 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x84e8d8f130825d5e2558feb6affd4428afbbea5ec0241da94b792bcb828ecb37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will United States win on 2025-11-15? | Event: fif-usa-par-2025-11-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or higher on November 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 36-37°F on November 19? | 79,214,854 | 79,214,854 |
74a2f5adf220d0e70c8f7fced28d5dd44c3098bf | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xad08695fe7615a77d0b8a353f86d82cc6f0d20de5acc548ca4c8b65b1254253f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or higher on November 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-... | yes | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-yea-on-an-epstein-disclosure-bill | Will at least 95 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill? | 79,214,854 | 79,214,854 |
62dbe2b2543cc29417b051b93e69dbe5d382a446 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xc9dc44cf5b13d7503b0a954e7f9f4e8de50908e9050db32066a65ddf25c7484f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on November 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-first-during-saudi-pm-events-on-november-18 | Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" first during Saudi PM events on November 18? | 79,214,854 | 79,214,854 |
52278f177052f4b81df2a3911288dedcfb294ea1 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xeb33df1334122ae60e1c3c3a7eb9420a7a12e3391523ce7dcd6e20a0d015e3f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on November 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ZKsync win 2025 Uniswap Cup? | Event: uniswap-cup | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.26
3. Question: Trump announces... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-first-during-saudi-pm-events-on-november-18 | Will Trump say "Two Weeks" first during Saudi PM events on November 18? | 79,214,854 | 79,214,854 |
aa02b72bda0cd374aedccdcd64eed77e992ae94d | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xfed976a8465df16ff0aeb9dbf2638eaee9de4f082b2b861cbb023814eaf138fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ZKsync win 2025 Uniswap Cup? | Event: uniswap-cup | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.26
2. Question: Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 16? | Event: trump-announces-new-drug-boat-strike-by-467 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-11-16... | yes | 1 | uef-bel-lie-2025-11-18 | Will Belgium win on 2025-11-18? | 79,214,854 | 79,214,854 |
93637a5fa9c1c8a245b08f31447a8967fd70d97c | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x592d2d3137493c0eae15bccea86ca59424a9adeae0652bed019a8316d13bd667 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 16? | Event: trump-announces-new-drug-boat-strike-by-467 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-hun-ire-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win on 20... | no | 0.414365 | how-many-house-members-vote-yea-on-an-epstein-disclosure-billresolution-in-2025 | Will 300 or more house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill? | 79,214,854 | 79,216,505 |
821fc9781f39a97f8699d65166a85cdac9fb6258 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x097449f55fdf2e2a5d4977b4d0d4d689056a139bedd45b710bfc5a1cfd2f09e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-hun-ire-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-prt-arm-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hungary win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-hun-ire-2025-11-16... | yes | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-yea-on-an-epstein-disclosure-bill | Will less than 50 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill? | 79,214,909 | 79,214,909 |
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