sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84c883a869b2f1a0b2f2dec935c9d8d435a3300b | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x238d086694e10ef411dee336aa86ffc363eb9b4a51754a3a006a3cf7dde37834 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-prt-arm-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hungary win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-hun-ire-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6483516483516484
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-aze-fra-2025-11-... | yes | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-yea-on-an-epstein-disclosure-bill | Will between 55-59 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill? | 79,214,909 | 79,214,909 |
a269dc1b5ef7bbee65ae7b74b79ad6ce2aabbef2 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x8bb7f287856be5378e841874cdacd798f17a091e498cd976476e62e5e86ec8ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hungary win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-hun-ire-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6483516483516484
2. Question: Will France win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-aze-fra-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-alb-eng-2025-11-1... | no | 1 | uef-sco-den-2025-11-18 | Will Scotland win on 2025-11-18? | 79,214,909 | 79,214,909 |
44bcfb117f29c346ab6df7eaa7caa466c46568fa | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x9b7fb4554fb14b0e16ddbbc534e9cec9b6eddf4997cb96f51a344b09ba89d90c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-aze-fra-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-alb-eng-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ledger win 2025 Uniswap Cup? | Event: uniswap-cup | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 1 | uef-kvx-che-2025-11-18 | Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-18? | 79,214,909 | 79,214,909 |
dd301ecd8282dd08107aff5f7fc3199d78ba2975 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xa96da5abcee7001608210ce3ab55e19c72cf60789f2254fd57c6b95ff35722b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-alb-eng-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ledger win 2025 Uniswap Cup? | Event: uniswap-cup | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Islanders vs. Avalanche | Event: nhl-nyi-col-2025-11-16 | Choice: islanders | Confid... | yes | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-yea-on-an-epstein-disclosure-bill | Will no Senate vote on an Epstein disclosure bill occur by December 31? | 79,214,909 | 79,214,909 |
a41f90a4ac0aafb8897d77f1ff63ace36dd34684 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xadb4fb950b86f95d43a2efd7717b0d223b07640de6d84ee4c8254ea2129b982a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ledger win 2025 Uniswap Cup? | Event: uniswap-cup | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Islanders vs. Avalanche | Event: nhl-nyi-col-2025-11-16 | Choice: islanders | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Albania win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-alb-eng-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 1 | cof-tri-ber-2025-11-18 | Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2025-11-18? | 79,214,909 | 79,214,909 |
e50241b1889fb65048778896f05810c0ea597723 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xe408c7f12fbe2332f86996cc4120d68820901321607ebce33ab52ce1811c74af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Islanders vs. Avalanche | Event: nhl-nyi-col-2025-11-16 | Choice: islanders | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Albania win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-alb-eng-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-isr-mol-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | uef-aut-bih-2025-11-18 | Will Austria win on 2025-11-18? | 79,214,909 | 79,214,909 |
4b0f473e89b10ed572254ea6771fe677d631dcf5 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xec400c2ddf7a911e1f2bc39054674475b39eb4094dc9b0b5c7e07e199308dda8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Albania win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-alb-eng-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-isr-mol-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nigeria win on 2025-11-16? | Event: caf-nga-cdr-2025-11-16 | Choice: no ... | yes | 1 | uef-esp-tur-2025-11-18 | Will Spain win on 2025-11-18? | 79,214,909 | 79,214,909 |
0a4059da9ba6b58bfbcf69b268d7a04444ce3cd1 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x0fcdbf577c19adaed1f3eaa6a52e3ec478766e14d5c2491e0a6f4992c02184d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-isr-mol-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nigeria win on 2025-11-16? | Event: caf-nga-cdr-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | Event: wh... | no | 1 | how-long-will-trump-and-mohammed-bin-salman-al-saud-shake-hands-on-tuesday | Will Trump and Mohammed bin Salman shake hands for 15 seconds or more on November 18 2025? | 79,222,427 | 79,222,427 |
fc8498817e6aba719b45fb127e56bce9c05d1674 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xb70ed64e30027c6a20ae4d1ff7ca68a8e64111652f517b3692e9aa5f47455212 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nigeria win on 2025-11-16? | Event: caf-nga-cdr-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | Event: which-candidates-advance-to-2025-chilean-presidential-runoff | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 0.949395 | what-will-trump-say-first-during-saudi-pm-events-on-november-18 | Will Trump say "Erdogan" first during Saudi PM events on November 18? | 79,222,427 | 79,228,344 |
d45eb00f242913bd1814d4d9b2c1bfb0b30b224b | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x2e956c939e0bee2fc22ccea7f3122635ef6a829747a9c16207fcdd594c694dc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | Event: which-candidates-advance-to-2025-chilean-presidential-runoff | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Event: now-you-see-... | yes | 0.144224 | when-will-trump-sign-the-epstein-disclosure-bill-into-law | Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19? | 79,242,383 | 79,258,872 |
5f8ba16f0761c1142d28cf442c67b32a7e1d4cfc | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x5ca7f7c40e5dbce4b00c5bd586f18445a3f8ef3efd7150a7e725e60df64d51ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Event: now-you-see-me-now-you-dont-rotten-tomatoes-score-329 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Fry" or "Fries" during the McDonald's Summit on November 17? | Event: what-wil... | no | 1 | when-will-trump-sign-the-epstein-disclosure-bill-into-law | Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20? | 79,258,832 | 79,258,832 |
d08a58ada149b3b5900c1be9301ef4deac324b78 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xc6fe1e09610ae0d2240e5ab49fabf280c0f4ff226a23e53a49528b7c769fbe65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Fry" or "Fries" during the McDonald's Summit on November 17? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-mcdonalds-summit-on-november-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6057615969150505
2. Question: Clippers vs. 76ers | Event: nba-lac-phi-2025-11-17 | Choice: clippers | Confidence: 0.215... | no | 1 | the-running-man-opening-weekend-box-office-lower-strikes | Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? | 79,258,832 | 79,258,832 |
f96997f02bdb7343b8f9803413d14497d9128d2f | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xccb6911ed30782af471547b7856219bc932661daa436b57564c8d37953f07d17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Clippers vs. 76ers | Event: nba-lac-phi-2025-11-17 | Choice: clippers | Confidence: 0.21588019214467363
2. Question: Will Mozambique win on 2025-11-17? | Event: fif-cha-moz-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Event: what-d... | yes | 1 | when-will-trump-sign-the-epstein-disclosure-bill-into-law | Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 21? | 79,258,872 | 79,258,872 |
4ebeff24a64fc8324f0339f2b768f3ff982f9b31 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xe2294fd00125170793a7f4bdfac26ccf50a2ca55fe28eb10bbeeb8e0b526dd89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mozambique win on 2025-11-17? | Event: fif-cha-moz-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5038872252601803
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win o... | yes | 1 | when-will-trump-sign-the-epstein-disclosure-bill-into-law | Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 22? | 79,258,872 | 79,258,872 |
af844829cf20b3f50a62caf86a185699da17ba2e | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xef5f42ab6627dc5ac064cf850ddf580a0a8a7d936d6e0b1b10b709d44fadd583 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5038872252601803
2. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-kor1-gha-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Japan win on 20... | yes | 1 | when-will-trump-sign-the-epstein-disclosure-bill-into-law | Will Trump not sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill by November 29? | 79,258,872 | 79,258,872 |
7e3923ea1e8247ecf983e95c118be7ed6ca33f45 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x6c928844f37566d8bbba8eef7e8136de3ccdaa12171b772a6a52bc8680e794c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-kor1-gha-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Japan win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-jpn-bol-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on November... | yes | 1 | chile-presidential-election | Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? | 79,259,741 | 79,259,741 |
6b807292aaf445dcbad3dadafd93716a879dbde8 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xca7f8d52117d4a6774ae1ca0fabb587d79cdf7dab258e126ef385b772509940e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Japan win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-jpn-bol-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on November 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will anyone vo... | heroic | 0 | dota2-ts8-heroic-2025-11-20 | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner | 79,268,827 | 79,273,771 |
9d430c4dcd3950f338ad7087301996f54e61230f | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xaa40156f1b7c4629d760048038a782d6c1c064cb266c67be64d86aaba6bd2291 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on November 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files? | Event: will-anyone-vote-no-to-releasing-the-epstein-files | Choic... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 35-36°F on November 20? | 79,270,358 | 79,270,358 |
90eccb92561be78f9117f78211548fc98d193a8b | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x1c79659a36b6a3ddbcc4359225cf6855063281d92efe15c7f588e9e68646f788 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files? | Event: will-anyone-vote-no-to-releasing-the-epstein-files | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | chile-presidential-election | Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? | 79,271,292 | 79,271,292 |
eb27bc62533818caa67f0b4c4e2cc69d42c5b096 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xa8000bfad66ca5534e1ea70db9c222615c202d00107448b56efe3dc25fed3e93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-ksa-alg-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 410 or more house members vote “Yea” o... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 37-38°F on November 20? | 79,275,072 | 79,275,072 |
cb91f5d8d9cb01363ff9f4f61b612f7b0a39e474 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x23e0127d607c2e2ec165ad08815274f0e191795c056e7dab7df55edd386a83bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-ksa-alg-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 410 or more house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill? | Event: how-many-house-members-vote-yea-on-an-epstein-disclosure-bill-higher-brackets | Choice: yes... | yes | 0.09023 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will Côte d'Ivoire win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,303,604 | 79,310,771 |
17f00d84c52072d909afd9a6a35320c5b21b9b14 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x13fbae2e6e95c0102d7bf4a6d2643e278499d8990c8c38e4369819b27caed2f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 410 or more house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill? | Event: how-many-house-members-vote-yea-on-an-epstein-disclosure-bill-higher-brackets | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Romania win on 2025-11-18? | Event: uef-rom-smr-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on November 20? | 79,310,770 | 79,310,770 |
c45bec8a293bf89da2c4764ce8fb2f9aa9c3faea | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xc9e232772a898ca99a87f0c8a6a94152077e7b860ba0fb19abf88d2d5a3daacc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania win on 2025-11-18? | Event: uef-rom-smr-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 36-37°F on November 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will at leas... | no | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will Mexico win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,310,771 | 79,310,771 |
6d2885427056e3075a565390e15a79c67afa327c | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xf53eee22b8d0582238e9f045ba18632f0bac1853b27841effc2f4d23530f7765 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 36-37°F on November 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will at least 95 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill? | Event: how-many-senators-vote-yea-on-an-epstein-dis... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on November 21? | 79,321,457 | 79,321,457 |
1c87996180417ff9b3c1fdc064117f9f13db1bfd | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xb1ad58f6023dfa49858f9bd7db1209013b52415c62920335bce2dbcb1073fc7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will at least 95 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill? | Event: how-many-senators-vote-yea-on-an-epstein-disclosure-bill | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" first during Saudi PM events on November 18? | Event: what-will-trump-say-fir... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on November 21? | 79,328,903 | 79,328,903 |
40ee6551a08550c0ee426d89f9cb1974a47624e6 | 0x09b3c21036a30cfe1d65074e82080c0ef7a855c7 | 0xef16e1f4617e12af17bb2acfd5302d146f73f51e8c4b2116a896ce7d7bf5d253 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet less than 40 times?
Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-31-and-june-7
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-31-and-june-7 | Will Elon tweet less than 40 times? | 57,799,946 | 57,799,946 |
bf23e5857e55421a4e2132592b2f44c0ee65d894 | 0x09b3c21036a30cfe1d65074e82080c0ef7a855c7 | 0x843ebda467d21e813fa1b9b23011f3d6b2d1ad0f0ba04489e74ae9faa876ce10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 40 times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-31-and-june-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles?
Event: french-open-mens-singles
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the tar... | yes | 1 | french-open-mens-singles | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | 57,946,268 | 57,946,268 |
e688c5f10015fdb48ab0331a6b27378c9d2e26ee | 0x09b3c21036a30cfe1d65074e82080c0ef7a855c7 | 0x07954fd1965dea6b78eaa5f6823d3546b8219a284fd89b27454b7f05f4098340 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 40 times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-31-and-june-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-open-mens-singles | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will M... | yes | 1 | may-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will May 2024 show an increase of less than 1.03C? | 58,062,026 | 58,062,026 |
4521e73599b13e7e1a69c339546dbd635357d26d | 0x09b3c21036a30cfe1d65074e82080c0ef7a855c7 | 0xa7af66a129514828725e0d6c9fd08777c237f9d72eef3e7e24a9ac50e0d6cf4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 40 times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-31-and-june-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-open-mens-singles | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will May 2024 show ... | yes | 1 | next-president-of-iran | Will Ali Larijani be the next President of Iran? | 58,414,073 | 58,414,073 |
2aabe4cc5eab7e34e74e54977c74c0e0a0021d19 | 0x09b3c21036a30cfe1d65074e82080c0ef7a855c7 | 0xbe2ef632d273d13b501d2b983e5d5dbb4b39552f7a173b9cab68810d094dbf29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 40 times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-31-and-june-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-open-mens-singles | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will May 2024 show ... | no | 1 | euro-2024-group-c-winner | Will Slovenia win Group C? | 58,609,538 | 58,609,538 |
79cc0a62b1a63eb8e52fb965e78890de0f7f48d7 | 0x09b3c21036a30cfe1d65074e82080c0ef7a855c7 | 0x3734461e31ddc678d821c3fc79b55bc87f333e22e64b8d6c10f118d83d8a1dbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 40 times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-31-and-june-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-open-mens-singles | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will May 2024 show ... | yes | 1 | ny-16-democratic-primary-winner | Will George Latimer win the NY-16 Democratic House Primary? | 58,636,008 | 58,636,008 |
58d8169dff8d1e12e4aee07a40a75b6337b00d55 | 0x09b3c21036a30cfe1d65074e82080c0ef7a855c7 | 0x32bd8e6b98769c54edb9779fc3e6884b74e93c51db1e8e930afa482e437ba29d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 40 times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-31-and-june-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-open-mens-singles | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will May 2024 show ... | yes | 1 | utah-senate-republican-primary-winner | Will John Curtis win the Utah Republican Primary? | 58,636,016 | 58,636,016 |
17a16f620e8ec53b835a2ef6ab94ee41210d31e7 | 0x09b3c21036a30cfe1d65074e82080c0ef7a855c7 | 0x3cde4dc6946ec2e69bd8bd377745c983264bc598910191e439a32a224bb8469b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 40 times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-31-and-june-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-open-mens-singles | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will May 2024 show ... | no | 1 | euro-2024-ukraine-vs-belgium | Will Ukraine win? | 58,672,114 | 58,672,114 |
7487fc7ac947fbdcf12e8fd7950ee30625da19f1 | 0x09b3c21036a30cfe1d65074e82080c0ef7a855c7 | 0x3e10ce2cd56f7a0f9e81e66f3efb6c1ea6d44a0e6923d07536b1f0e8a4274f5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 40 times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-31-and-june-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-open-mens-singles | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will May 2024 show ... | no | 1 | euro-2024-georgia-vs-portugal | Will Georgia win? | 58,721,849 | 58,721,849 |
940f468d3033b0e03d68344be3895c1576f891a2 | 0x09b3c21036a30cfe1d65074e82080c0ef7a855c7 | 0x5cf568a095a04a0085035f437248b180e3f3dca5263d934f51b1992446a09bb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 40 times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-31-and-june-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-open-mens-singles | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will May 2024 show ... | no | 0.111111 | euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Will Switzerland win? | 58,763,476 | 58,763,476 |
76b024799a1e9732c21ac9245e516477bf1cf416 | 0x09b3c21036a30cfe1d65074e82080c0ef7a855c7 | 0x15ea42625b550355f307ceeea8aa53b07e8f4b795c7edb131775dff44eae13a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 40 times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-31-and-june-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-open-mens-singles | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will May 2024 show ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Will Italy win? | 58,763,819 | 58,763,819 |
990a6c59c38c7c654331e6bf559911cc61b56709 | 0x09b3c21036a30cfe1d65074e82080c0ef7a855c7 | 0xf27bfcd39d25d1c27e4ca7b3966eb9007ca5785906e69d3799a6bd13ae7567d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 40 times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-31-and-june-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-open-mens-singles | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will May 2024 show ... | yes | 1 | a-quiet-place-day-one-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'A Quiet Place: Day One' gross less than $48m opening weekend? | 58,882,261 | 58,882,261 |
0af3f209f04a6211ef91b25b5ac51f022716c380 | 0x09b3c21036a30cfe1d65074e82080c0ef7a855c7 | 0xaac852aa752a3738c155231f7e6e952d440bee5387797db94e87425b05eb49c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 40 times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-31-and-june-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-open-mens-singles | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will May 2024 show ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-winner | Will Austria win the 2024 Euros? | 58,926,300 | 58,926,300 |
6ae72bbc17dbd69f6d24afb513a4fc0d749f1880 | 0x09b3c21036a30cfe1d65074e82080c0ef7a855c7 | 0xfc4a879923bd0e7eb64b74aabdd2bb323b0627d0889d28f408387e172fcc05a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 40 times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-31-and-june-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-open-mens-singles | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will May 2024 show ... | no | 1 | copa-america-2024-brazil-vs-colombia | Will Brazil win? | 58,926,300 | 58,926,300 |
5df8f44a6beada278163597cfb8ec1fb811470cd | 0x09b3c21036a30cfe1d65074e82080c0ef7a855c7 | 0x60f2ff2235714ede3a242073c80d88c92dc20838951df21fddf682d7af3d90a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 40 times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-31-and-june-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-open-mens-singles | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will May 2024 show ... | yes | 1 | va-5-republican-primary-winner | Will Bob Good win the VA-5 Republican House Primary? | 59,010,563 | 59,010,563 |
bbae825276a7391aa5803529fa2a91eaee215938 | 0x09b3c21036a30cfe1d65074e82080c0ef7a855c7 | 0xef10f2283d100fac85abeda5ff2f5866169b8c389ab574abb43ab4abc0338333 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 40 times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-31-and-june-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-open-mens-singles | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will May 2024 show ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-top-scorer | Will Jamal Musiala be Euro 2024 top scorer? | 59,010,563 | 59,010,563 |
45dcc23abbd275607e935c10d5e34f936b769762 | 0x09b3c21036a30cfe1d65074e82080c0ef7a855c7 | 0xfb919ad74a714edb12eff8b9ac4014831d092e5a1db6018e2c2c73ef559ca1ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 40 times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-31-and-june-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-open-mens-singles | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will May 2024 show ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-winner | Will Germany win the 2024 Euros? | 59,010,563 | 59,010,563 |
27f5eef2e24ff359f84e45062787b01cfb3a4a69 | 0x09b3c21036a30cfe1d65074e82080c0ef7a855c7 | 0x9f2e79451f887d3e13a26935a5c51b498ca5cbfd62fad0116909266e4df5b71c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 40 times? | Event: of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-31-and-june-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-open-mens-singles | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will May 2024 show ... | no | 1 | how-many-seats-will-new-popular-front-coalition-win-in-french-election | Will New Popular Front win between 220 and 249 seats? | 59,100,610 | 59,100,610 |
8f89c1c8a057db06ffee174bfdddb0c14abaae1a | 0x09b6eb3f8a9e1a63107faac02d74837951de510e | 0x7ade8b93914ae38b2fc95cba3e6796667b838add5f06ee2dc97b812fbd464c32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch?
Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | 62,536,479 | 62,536,479 |
cb6e9c1abf80474f1f49dd268f7837d567dc5945 | 0x09b6eb3f8a9e1a63107faac02d74837951de510e | 0x4e9488d4918b789209f66a1dbe5fad060569b390325ada56ccbf25fb857188c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election?
Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuani... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election | Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | 63,585,648 | 63,585,648 |
f5cc9b18f71ad2acf4d51f4b925489a3a3b73c79 | 0x09b6eb3f8a9e1a63107faac02d74837951de510e | 0x76fecf16a05d11f70647e54c061cfb92764837b7dcccab73ff2a67854c69e3f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election... | no | 1 | smile-2-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Smile 2' gross less than $21m opening weekend? | 63,585,648 | 63,585,648 |
bbc3ab941bec53a956d76744bfffd75b6bb4a720 | 0x09b6eb3f8a9e1a63107faac02d74837951de510e | 0x67e946751c16efcb5d14f463fceb2816dbc53884c723661f15d336c97ce55da8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-election | Will the Conservatives win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | 63,678,785 | 63,678,785 |
657fc5959c4954a44c85ab56d29a27129929cdfc | 0x09b6eb3f8a9e1a63107faac02d74837951de510e | 0x8e8cb5cb3864702ac83abf653c14c2f60fd8388d871241b323aa4734243e17e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election... | no | 1 | the-house-poker-night-biggest-loser | Will Bitboy be the biggest loser of The House Poker Night? | 63,911,329 | 63,911,329 |
fa71e6696efd0c18fa065868ee39508a58c2d2ca | 0x09b6eb3f8a9e1a63107faac02d74837951de510e | 0x4301716db71ad729aef3e798d4e39f70a7343f7b6fb30baff6fc728df0c03ca7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-nov-4 | Will Trump lead in RCP by 2.5 or more on Nov 4? | 63,911,337 | 63,911,337 |
c8126adf631b46b6d971305fdf4ff29a84a53c86 | 0x09b6eb3f8a9e1a63107faac02d74837951de510e | 0xc2157b1017b8c8db3d96207d01736a5517ff90cb6ae041d2425e228537f66d64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election... | no | 1 | the-house-poker-night-biggest-winner-1 | Will Bitboy be the biggest winner of The House Poker Night? | 63,911,337 | 63,911,337 |
8cd4d5317f80d06def9abe2023206e71d322b6af | 0x09b6eb3f8a9e1a63107faac02d74837951de510e | 0xd2b46998414172b3f9f157fff789dd7535270d59bde151fde70903c4b458d8f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election... | yes | 1 | next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Will Dennis Allen be the next coach fired? | 63,911,337 | 63,911,337 |
9207c0b51e1c330a8a9083d245862fd1ce63a0ab | 0x09b6eb3f8a9e1a63107faac02d74837951de510e | 0xf701d6232e46e40916df8a9a2c2db792becaaf4128c69639cd03c5285eaa1556 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Will Elon tweet 250-274 times November 1-8? | 63,937,967 | 63,937,967 |
5fee3681e7185fc98db3c110136459f8958262c8 | 0x09b6eb3f8a9e1a63107faac02d74837951de510e | 0x8abf82eb4647a787edf71dd017852e4bc8219c4e833e3013f861ed989fde38f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election... | no | 1 | connecticut-presidential-election-winner | Will a candidate from another party win Connecticut Presidential Election? | 63,997,078 | 63,997,078 |
ce55aa8b153b68e5a749c6f0cc5a5106a0f9f9f0 | 0x09b6eb3f8a9e1a63107faac02d74837951de510e | 0xf42996a13927c17242e49563bde5741ac60571966b39caff5c81d24e18524ac0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election... | no | 1 | what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | AP doesn't call the election by November 20? | 63,997,078 | 63,997,078 |
f7b55aa8343e78cd5e30d3e1f333f27e02802418 | 0x09b6eb3f8a9e1a63107faac02d74837951de510e | 0x7f2a4307042a9f72974c93342eb1db965ced9bded45ec4279d20aa05a4d53f0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election... | no | 1 | how-many-states-will-nate-silver-call-correctly | Will Silver call all 50 states correctly? | 64,183,800 | 64,183,800 |
e421920c47f4a0580c735c358cb1be4b0ea226e0 | 0x09b6eb3f8a9e1a63107faac02d74837951de510e | 0xdaa534b42c5a55c88e8d88f9507b4f227062d995103df0809d43d975894574d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election... | yes | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Will Trump tweet 130 or more times Nov 1-8? | 64,183,800 | 64,183,800 |
b257fc46556ff4eab98c862796b301b265ead5a2 | 0x09b6eb3f8a9e1a63107faac02d74837951de510e | 0x3b9abf47970a7ddfcb5ef4cb1dcf9dbd2eda3048821f5f0648a96dba230871ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election... | no | 1 | wicked-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Wicked' gross more than $135m opening weekend? | 64,915,799 | 64,915,799 |
31ad263281b06e98e7a15a1d51dc9a5ee8ff2ac4 | 0x09b6eb3f8a9e1a63107faac02d74837951de510e | 0x694c9e6de6d95cfa02192b2ab776512381c4c835a8cda1a5059720e62b9445b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election... | yes | 1 | hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in 2024? | 64,915,799 | 64,915,799 |
a34afcf704a3c9a79eb824e8e19a81179b33f0e7 | 0x09b6eb3f8a9e1a63107faac02d74837951de510e | 0x90ccc1bc4ad6ab40c6280393702a3343081d23b28e8b1406b3fe07984bfd557d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election... | no | 1 | first-pumpfun-coin-to-1b | Will DADDY be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b? | 64,915,799 | 64,915,799 |
010d90aec024c4ad9430b7b0b1d5247d26743b48 | 0x09b6eb3f8a9e1a63107faac02d74837951de510e | 0xf20cf747730a2a3539a652abb6a6c6b54e2eaf4cb6a6120a685af567014db789 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election... | no | 1 | mls-cup-winner | Will Minnesota United win the 2024 MLS Cup? | 64,915,799 | 64,915,799 |
55f6d00140d3a0a5f8d9828c8969d2e086cd7e5c | 0x09b6eb3f8a9e1a63107faac02d74837951de510e | 0x9d4daa1fe721ca8b76dabcdc8b491290fbb269844f72b1e26b2ebc22172fa887 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | Event: eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election... | no | 1 | iowa-margin-of-victory | Will the Democratic candidate win Iowa by 4.0% or more? | 65,184,534 | 65,184,534 |
f47717410ef9001a9c89c55727029700fae99270 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xf49de8b6f857ada46a59104305a040033255dfb3db06bbf1720fc89a5200df33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton?
Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | 62,409,607 | 62,409,607 |
ada56b3ce8248de85446997ac28737dce9e7ee01 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x5c7602a4d5fe8bcbbe39090ad8218ed117342c1e03023c50b3f264db17aed99e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town?
Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "con... | yes | 1 | epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | 62,682,846 | 62,682,846 |
8320c86373284a80e9f1cd4c3b6b77895b600a4f | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x4e9488d4918b789209f66a1dbe5fad060569b390325ada56ccbf25fb857188c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legisla... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election | Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | 63,614,436 | 63,614,436 |
9a602311aa4e6bf50a66a6aee20fb7bde572a3d0 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x9fc36bb7895236ab0dc8424663d986e79cfd64068258da62e631c7bc9d4c4955 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | so-paulo-mayoral-election-2024 | Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? | 63,614,449 | 63,614,449 |
a052d473a9d45afdb38a2ef95c4e04b85e913022 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xd2952122167b52b324a4019d29482f43a9c09229dca692be86e10972bcf05fbe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-eve-2024-12-01 | Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-01? | 65,176,078 | 65,176,078 |
18516638905ff22f79891a3d31e263073c4539f6 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x1480066b72000b1204a04a40b033a7c94819bbf90263a865bbe007e7a1fefb61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-not-2024-12-07 | Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-07? | 65,312,751 | 65,312,751 |
1b3e30c0e5cc26d5160574187718b0eb005e95db | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xb09684e11fb40f40cfb2fec4a8e08fe2b021a82b0803756a90f04e1364efa94f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | ethereum-all-time-high-wen | Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? | 66,238,496 | 66,238,496 |
fa5e33e17769fba015c48852ad602cbb429b9738 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xba890f1611bfee5b8137bdae02cb60c7c76d81ccc8da7b556dc19e1d191b7427 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | epl-midpoint-leader | Will Liverpool lead the EPL in points at midway point? | 66,296,776 | 66,296,776 |
0b6a52051e28e1e99ed6b7c4d5d12d60df65ed04 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xcef494589678983304cfac2034a7df02c9fcef0d560582b8e76c01748a8c32e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-new-2025-01-04 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-04? | 66,314,923 | 66,314,923 |
95dbe2520be5fa6f1548d18f5534ca74cbef8adc | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x2808cb32d287132bb8c0678595b855f902ba1c9971e2ff9f2c090eba1d022e7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | golden-globes-best-screenplay | Will 'Anora' win the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay? | 66,376,327 | 66,376,327 |
58256764417830a815dfe755355affffba5a527d | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x52773f020d6df03ec9badee157bc5aedf8c107280cef9c8f06dccd92313d16fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | golden-globes-best-actor-drama | Will Adrien Brody win the Golden Globe for Best Actor - Drama? | 66,376,327 | 66,376,327 |
01e697a8dce069f789ad955c0d68b5826bc1c2ba | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xa548a32dc6ee00de49f8bcb178e281b977b7314a91eaac0f39feb1e623632578 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Will 'Anora' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | 66,376,327 | 66,376,327 |
b8db7d098b8af17b65507179d75d88467190f568 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xc70df3aba401a9b71c3d8db01a5f58de9e223f14d051bd969de782d799431589 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | golden-globes-best-actress-in-a-movie-drama | Will Angelina Jolie win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama? | 66,376,327 | 66,376,327 |
df6b7f631533c28345e13b159c925fa5462e3bc2 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x7e58abd89b04a34b4a066d94c0bcf53cf0c7ccd9f568c6c1a339d996bce6356a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-ireland | Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? | 67,091,067 | 67,091,067 |
cbf8e8fa64d69c7cb773c15af9dc387768a8b677 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xf414ea313837ae29ec643d28e2ec64be5346067097e2ba35b30d606957c55ea1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | epl-new-bou-2025-01-18 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-18? | 67,091,067 | 67,091,067 |
27e150bf2f7c6ce8ffe91883fae559f3024765ae | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x69bf4f8aa2acb131126f0e552f7b5bf1d1e4de09e9271d7b745da48fb5f6b611 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | 75,358,828 | 75,358,828 |
97919e5f5959b6ee0b225d2dcce6a7afa66af126 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x3a07b2b0b026a1d5de566924f65a552441578b34303448366c0527e7cb236da9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-lee-2025-08-23 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-23? | 75,600,274 | 75,600,274 |
fc5cfb941d1b1c662c6bc27b74ffab894fd48317 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x9a7363741ccac5c2c5cbf24b83790e480b0aee4ab423b8017f05f816e65934b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | epl-bur-sun-2025-08-23 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-08-23? | 75,600,274 | 75,600,274 |
bee2becec13f2eeffd1df4c1376232b80d18b26d | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xfac7fd0e53395dbfb6ca7b26db9715413308039d38a57bb29d2de0dbad78bf24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | 75,640,145 | 75,640,145 |
acbd01c8d7c1bfdca093a4248fbe69d8834767cf | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xad9049484e451b17add24dca5766882fea3f1111650466bc9bfc0afeebb99863 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | epl-che-ful-2025-08-30 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-30? | 75,861,914 | 75,861,914 |
9878a3460366b5c8da9b1a357375cecb834f0b7b | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x50e71d63cc5c1129d8154d92783592777ec99a5d3904b3b4fd2b362223472aeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-mac-2025-08-31 | Will Brighton win on 2025-08-31? | 75,924,715 | 75,924,715 |
498744e7f3b72707f79214a8cf665295b0ca128b | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xd65c4072e48a82a9cd49e8e6be332792fb13e8e076134d860d110427fc01d374 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | next-prime-minister-of-norway | Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | 76,266,748 | 76,266,748 |
b1088dad8886c13f289100907186be704ee97119 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x56848d4be72f57f7b44a1100a3c384444b5c4b39528827f112ad2465a35f3e94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-not-2025-09-13 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-13? | 76,422,260 | 76,422,260 |
6c6ddb81d11bdc209242b723c21eabcc705ecff9 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xafff3c833567330e7d948f236447728153805f6b4f0879285c3569b6459f6bf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | epl-new-wol-2025-09-13 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-13? | 76,422,260 | 76,422,260 |
0e974a4c5b0879a44673c90578bcf4bd3688256a | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x0656c73b782f5a69acd827353913ef341bc6db54e514dbb87d11d4ee51da39b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | epl-bur-liv-2025-09-14 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-14? | 76,475,817 | 76,475,817 |
614482a766a1f71b8a5f85127445e15ce49a43e0 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x79b8ee9f7c2e6d1166df977325ebd012717dae747ac2d8e0a1592d98f48f3c31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-523 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 40-45 million views on day 1? | 76,475,817 | 76,475,817 |
bc5f1fae879e1b20c22fe7a41392338ec3f6774e | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xa6810873af2eeac42bc2445db3e505d00fa738789b519da49e1f24194924c5f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Will Germany win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | 76,475,817 | 76,475,817 |
655816cedbc16774fb086564afc389e2fbe05536 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x9f41a3e4a2ef548cf207c22a48dbaf73e28dda5ec014c145217f428aaf3769e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,580,736 | 76,580,736 |
afc1cbd768548c55fc32c2dbc3a39d4bfe96e4e1 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xd62a43379a790c695d40bb724c669a87c237aaf7799907d00e14fe7badb573cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-ata-2025-09-17 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-09-17? | 76,580,736 | 76,580,736 |
6172acf1c611e03bb2ad24ad981fb08861fd2917 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xa91292fec2a01bd433c6e93c6ccf64da1f519bc42204aca330add55181df6cfe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | yes | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole? | 76,705,033 | 76,705,033 |
79a1419e50e54efeac7a756e858a3bbf7a491609 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xee07a6510143ca04d8aa7df7ab0351c57eff7f9296af4b278fecb96c56ff5f9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election... | no | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole? | 76,705,033 | 76,705,033 |
ddbb41c740d95d60744cde85202cc07844f5611f | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x08fd8c7cfce5d959368b3b6bffb4e503c17b7cd6099c770a46ca296baa12ddf5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-west-ham-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | ucl-kay-rma-2025-09-30 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-30? | 77,132,946 | 77,132,946 |
7f84980f5927481426b78281462918b45e9634ae | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x1c54bb7b4b94ed15224cc69b465668a3f0a80bc3b6a909b0877d721cb3ec71b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? | Event: so-paulo-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | 77,132,946 | 77,132,946 |
9288caba54f99c739f754b5eb7856e771c9027d5 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xf23cfb56d69b665c9ea431be9d5e4661d511f0fe5b858966673e1cb2282612b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? | Event: so-paulo-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-mun-eve-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on... | yes | 1 | ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | 77,149,188 | 77,149,188 |
aff5952461cc49447e217a2228a75505616abb08 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x1b0ec1837dbb55c9cc459e7c16025b07f803497f6ba001f548d90731a5d022cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-mun-eve-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-07? | Event: epl-mun-not-2024-12-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? | Event: ethereum-al... | yes | 1 | epl-new-ful-2025-10-25 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-10-25? | 78,167,791 | 78,167,791 |
65aaa5e192b5a8a897af17a57951609aaafb5f65 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x1fda5b0ffab24e4cbb04f3d70127920d3e4fe09571fd6d58a93ae2344c6e6f0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-07? | Event: epl-mun-not-2024-12-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool lead the EPL in points at midway point? | E... | yes | 1 | bun-ein-pau-2025-10-25 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-10-25? | 78,167,791 | 78,167,791 |
40c847c7cb89082f784c7dbe3b682b717f0b0c96 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x71fb4b1f5cab56d481f42983075e086b403a12dccb06711343f935fcc89f96c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool lead the EPL in points at midway point? | Event: epl-midpoint-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-t... | yes | 1 | efl-mnc-swa-2025-10-29 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,362,097 | 78,362,097 |
06c77d50cac2c46761fbe44108d10804174e68f6 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x0c310c0dd164e77c068f2a5ea99b48b2cf7570aea31965ce0bad2029efea1457 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool lead the EPL in points at midway point? | Event: epl-midpoint-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-tot-new-2025-01-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Anora' win the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02? | 78,536,833 | 78,536,833 |
5c8fcf41de8ab497f9f55ec6f8dbe9d9ffa6c259 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x027eeeaba097b5f3b166eace64668b2e6b327acc7c6b314ae5f03b33b51425e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-tot-new-2025-01-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Anora' win the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay? | Event: golden-globes-best-screenplay | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Adrien Brody win the Golden Globe for ... | yes | 1 | new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | 78,624,620 | 78,624,620 |
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