sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04f8d7b8702074b84ab738045eddeaf71b036bfb | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x20d4b4186dd1ef583b767f162ea48e2a32a009399212255eb406739c22dfa6a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Anora' win the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay? | Event: golden-globes-best-screenplay | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Adrien Brody win the Golden Globe for Best Actor - Drama? | Event: golden-globes-best-actor-drama | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will '... | yes | 1 | ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | 78,624,620 | 78,624,620 |
4e28b9ee7c27dccc1b6f51d853340a9f20b1d8f2 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0x9e0d8164e90ec5dc6e23bc050adda7ca174023acf7d28e9afe8b0765da08b382 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Adrien Brody win the Golden Globe for Best Actor - Drama? | Event: golden-globes-best-actor-drama | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Anora' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | Event: golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | 78,624,620 | 78,624,620 |
d3d2f774e0952efc1b57d66dead85e81dddf2aba | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xd135370c2eee3f4955ab11ad15ab0af01cd9eb9650af2871a1f68718c9d6d48d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Anora' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | Event: golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Angelina Jolie win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama? | Event: golden-globes-best-actress-in-a-movie-drama | Choice:... | yes | 1 | ucl-tot-kob-2025-11-04 | Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-11-04? | 78,624,620 | 78,624,620 |
800202579229594335e40cd51ca6587f638e1398 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xebddfcf7b4401dade8b4031770a1ab942b01854f3bed453d5df9425cd9f211a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Angelina Jolie win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama? | Event: golden-globes-best-actress-in-a-movie-drama | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-ireland | Choice: yes | Con... | yes | 1 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 78,624,620 | 78,624,620 |
513255809a26bcbc2fec4d3972fc33d1e0ae3143 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xc31015e07bbd99c6657879be3d9d1540ad4a8dceb706135515ac6cea0c63af4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-ireland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-18? | Event: epl-new-bou-2025-01-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-1... | yes | 1 | ucl-new-ath-2025-11-05 | Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-11-05? | 78,666,349 | 78,666,349 |
de1b8289ad87374b3dc2be723d18f3beb65f8143 | 0x09baa401f477c9c5cc38cc86bb616603506ae55b | 0xb1f270a41ce97e654964db17d444f862900b60e3c9eace8b85d16dbaf62ede47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-18? | Event: epl-new-bou-2025-01-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-23? | Event: epl-ars-lee-2025-08-23... | no | 1 | 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-7 | Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? | 78,733,341 | 78,733,341 |
5a57f47a84e6a8290ae6b52855a325ee2cca4855 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x6507f3d3c7fbb7ee64028b1a466e76588c30a3149226227b8f21666094fe34c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?
Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 0.2 | poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | 72,233,005 | 72,270,850 |
1109bbf0604c68c4da44f2058afed3c6f533ccd2 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xf84909eb6ee7ac8e7c9ccd9370f787ea1d34efd035045b0bbbd98f1b3c208446 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
Target market:
Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate?
Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market.... | yes | 1 | who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | 72,304,735 | 72,304,735 |
eeb4e6475d3cabed6e3fe6d8737181d1e17e47b6 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x06916f9473282fc79123ed93cc7f599ffdad421240e4030e6e2500e0b3192253 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Lee Jae-myun... | no | 1 | south-korea-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 17-20%? | 72,338,877 | 72,338,877 |
90abb477835f021e7ce53c458806ad198d737ca3 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x8c2827821f8d04a08addced7df2e2b69e21e54cadd83af51c8b9404c572f0a91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-south-korea-presidential-election | Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korean Presidential Election? | 72,338,877 | 72,338,877 |
5ecb15cebd5e8a7fa525127f8d5e3a339cba927b | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x1eaa7dbf6db63fb0771a93ac95920a0a5facd65734e8a5c269c276d2dc14cbda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | yes | 1 | new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | 72,630,509 | 72,630,509 |
b5cbd2684e39de858936c2ed14f6c40bb1d04f9c | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xc81ef32a9bc9a3051315c844ee158ed75f0278c0d7e52aff39be4e6f991ac628 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | no | 1 | 2nd-place-in-new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary | Will another candidate win the second most in the New Jersey Governor Democratic Primary? | 72,640,324 | 72,640,324 |
89f3beea9dda78876098fbc6bdca6906670993fa | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x6a67b9d828d53862160e470329ffea5246f338ecfffdf2cab45211ec578b0347 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | no | 0 | us-military-action-against-iran-before-july | US military action against Iran before July? | 73,065,774 | 73,066,880 |
e35fc59057a9b4d37d247e2e7895b167788bc306 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xd6c22daa78afa38f19e23ca808052938cfa9388db1b628145587a80c47e6c733 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | yes | 0 | nyc-mayor-dem-primary-1st-round-winner | Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary? | 73,184,768 | 73,184,768 |
b778d3d277a77208e222eed5922f835088db61dd | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xf53a63a7aec5009131e8bc192327c24fb85ed96e5208608fb779a7345a5c2733 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | yes | 0 | nyc-mayor-dem-primary-1st-round-winner | Andrew Cuomo gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary? | 73,184,803 | 73,184,829 |
f07afd01e8232d31400c60570de0e96dae7238f6 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xfe4ddfdf4e6b6188967331f5932c8ec6dcbc815572ef9f3566b5d903a708b61f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | no | 0 | fordow-nuclear-facility-destroyed-before-july | Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? | 73,241,022 | 73,241,022 |
5e394e859697f1e46d5c87beb1ec54b96d28d0ca | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x575f6a141e4e4155dacb2f6bdc47c743ce6f55939ab66c813ea84689472e5477 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | yes | 0.013726 | trump-announces-end-of-military-operations-against-iran-before-july | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July? | 73,246,964 | 73,353,445 |
d2b84cf31c2ccd732a8f7660486968d63de73a22 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x596b23bcb24180c0525cb5c85c536601abb008132aac428215104ed1906ad58e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | no | 0 | us-refuels-israeli-jets-for-strikes-on-iran-before-july | U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July? | 73,316,819 | 73,588,203 |
a3b371bfb160c3ceafd4cec3735c67d63ef172d2 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xd219e16129ab22d86c00d294e17b7d53cc2b6423033be8b68f94ec9550214f39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | no | 0 | houthi-strike-on-israel-before-july | Another Houthi strike on Israel before July? | 73,327,894 | 73,327,894 |
3b3ce4ed175d74b21294c7a20127c76fac22e084 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x8e5dd56e494bac55a67a36b7044cefd95dfe7bf8c893f7d82a58c9681990100d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | no | 0.521987 | israel-and-saudi-arabia-normalize-relations-in-2025 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? | 73,345,788 | 73,345,788 |
27154d960759a29e901b74050641063591c0959d | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x0e59f8b12cded4e06393c609f1a605ecd60d95881dceaec1cd76d3f6a903590a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | no | 1 | f1-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $43M? | 73,426,155 | 73,426,155 |
f88c5430638f8149275c25220712a935bff47a44 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xb8d0c21738b170d043013d4a99ef6a66bb1ff439b769ea7345315f21b8b42713 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | no | 1 | f1-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $43–47M? | 73,426,155 | 73,426,155 |
9bf0d1db0ce938778d3b24cd33b65fe98641eb43 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xfeff5a8f07d5f69289139ce0e28a2f0e5feb9d9741712a3f84f782de591b94de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | no | 1 | when-will-the-reconciliation-bill-passe | Will the next reconciliation bill be passed before July? | 73,468,203 | 73,468,203 |
8f065860b082101c98c273cb78585a2928d1d798 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xac1b6017f9447f21dfd69829b5d7b084aef5893f7ddd6abdca8d95f40238f398 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | no | 1 | will-tesla-launch-a-driverless-robtotaxi-service-before-july | Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? | 73,588,203 | 73,588,203 |
36e8ec2813e2ad1d774ebe6a9f78a0b416edc42c | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x5a81f9ef8bf06662ff9abf235fdab14e21b8742741691886adda3edb8504cbe4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | no | 0.980392 | israel-and-syria-normalize-relations-in-2025 | Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? | 73,995,173 | 73,995,173 |
02cd97650fad722cb12b9a056aa0c5d57928701d | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xd4e7947fef685b3e50c253fa7d117624db2a9676661f3107652fa019cff70eb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | no | 0.000001 | israel-x-syria-territorial-agreement-by-end-of-2025 | Israel x Syria security deal before September? | 74,010,525 | 74,224,163 |
41074daacef2a995bdfb4814660a42068abeb534 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x35bc1bf05846a2d4a72ff03f1c93b8f41ec6a45241a2292ddbb2c919dd7a68f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | no | 0 | thailand-strikes-cambodia-by-friday | Thailand strikes Cambodia by Friday? | 74,450,445 | 74,450,445 |
d105830584bdf9e3a0c7ea9297668c1295d94335 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x3e0bc36a0009ab23bca757eabf17709046146c3cc2110aaf837a5e1993ab26f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | no | 0 | will-microstrategy-hold-620k-btc-before-august | Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC before August? | 74,551,314 | 74,551,314 |
51f4ee3cf9face98ab8a9e2e4cb7349e5fd9ac10 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xa8c893360fb69cc6261bcb142b05055689a9c2329f6e3bf3a54932c2ab1ead01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | 74,649,510 | 74,649,510 |
f03f84d3551d9a30262a983cfc9a9181889f4022 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x40a0d836da9f5e6b4abfa237330e23895ad89ecd10abb0d48e5347b91d2dba3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | no | 0 | will-trump-meet-with-putin-again-by | Will Trump meet with Putin by September 30? | 75,323,094 | 77,121,650 |
f0d612878d102fbdc7431d73ece06cdd928d947e | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x5ceea2e7bf952547f614b1970646bc8eb5fa4a6005227bb7b80dd0b933bf78e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | no | 0 | another-fed-governor-out-by-december-31 | Fed governor resigns by October 31? | 75,447,146 | 75,447,146 |
44e21983cbc8f33592b4992af12e34592efc29be | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x46dc560a09f07d8b6989bec851262e4df92ea0dd909631cf987afc88c8b8d729 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | no | 0 | will-mrbeast-raise-40m-for-clean-water-by-august-31 | Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? | 75,479,241 | 75,908,529 |
98a148127fe725f68aa980f936f397f819331e9a | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x02dc46f4354c1cc447577db82ba62cca1bda737bd67b73fe966ce1bfe580868f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | no | 0 | fed-decision-in-september | No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | 75,664,700 | 75,664,700 |
c258c2387e07be6008719fb53202915bde8dbb47 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xb77636e216631f195c54a7649b428a3ebe64c655421c3212e6001a93548b3a4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-august | Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? | 75,908,529 | 75,908,529 |
f0d0bbb0980c8f6bda0daabe326c7f8a22abbf6f | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xeac4ec22f9ca445759238d91d12299b57c1256b32f4a563bfde36dbc1b5fddb2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-august | Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? | 75,908,529 | 75,908,529 |
62cd429bced8ce3dfd0575ac369889db1c81fa34 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x289092682de83f6542949b2e13a576d672ce8830f4993be0558a918be2d0ed99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | yes | 0.000419 | will-tesla-launch-a-driverless-robotaxi-service-by-october-31 | Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? | 76,172,914 | 76,178,864 |
19516d36e21c8b82a5fb78948590ed38b1c6a097 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xf4f51e9e4e8439e32f64dc0e659828af7564f9cbc323d4f7442f2c590a2ea07d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by betw... | no | 0 | taylor-swift-pregnant-in-2025 | Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? | 76,254,274 | 76,254,274 |
c11b29e694afaa84daf0b6fa0b73a0e7b8ed306e | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x0d7caa9700c1107c45a9bf02ccd1f3d9dd91aa1539be69a6152a8a96db5e24a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | Event: who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 17-20%? | Event: south-korea-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the candidat... | yes | 0.000423 | california-redistricting-referendum-passes | California redistricting referendum passes? | 76,254,344 | 76,254,344 |
a51297095a5af67357c97f776331545a2a327c4b | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xc60076b8a299000e668c354b5ef7f180253be03d6584bcd3657ed685cdd440be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 17-20%? | Event: south-korea-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korean Presidential Election? | Event: which-party-wins-south-korea-presidential-... | yes | 1 | norway-parliamentary-election-winner | Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election? | 76,269,475 | 76,269,475 |
1821134e7b564313248799f769369148d35b7bee | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xa5c145324688b080f582c6175c3a5281bf0550fdf339dde9c74c733b575caf8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korean Presidential Election? | Event: which-party-wins-south-korea-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-... | yes | 1 | july-2025-temperature-increase-c-394 | Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in August 2025? | 76,331,474 | 76,331,474 |
7b76a5eba88d6dfaab267329e6f2df17f5d34054 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xd8dc35e690ede1455c476595bc9bddd5c354ff86c8455a2d530ad94673740d7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the second most in the New Jersey Governor Democratic Primary? | Event: 2nd-place-in-n... | no | 0.000007 | us-government-shutdown-in-2025 | US government shutdown in 2025? | 76,403,618 | 76,403,618 |
c9dfbe9e68126acb943d36c6668f61c49e355b79 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x4339941ae4a4470d66e29bf99206d3cb4f3649e37b9d57d75be5b7f9d8c1e511 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the second most in the New Jersey Governor Democratic Primary? | Event: 2nd-place-in-new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: US military action against Iran before July? | Event: us-military-action-against-iran-before-july ... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-the-usdh-ticker-159 | Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? | 76,462,926 | 76,462,926 |
1ae0be884e1d3f8cb890c3a0ce8a49cda8afa4dd | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x34fd49432062d39303523d21d5aec3137e31dea444621ef3184356dd01823569 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US military action against Iran before July? | Event: us-military-action-against-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary? | Event: nyc-mayor-dem-primary-1st-round-winner |... | no | 0 | will-a-hurricane-form-by-september-30 | Will a hurricane form by September 30? | 76,623,699 | 76,752,542 |
01b7de81669aae79aa3cf4ce3c5487394e8f6627 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xda0e7345e5efa69386c3df4979c6453efb486bcd10b9ed9cdf13e15212a20aae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary? | Event: nyc-mayor-dem-primary-1st-round-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 6.827815426337595e-08
2. Question: Andrew Cuomo gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral ... | no | 1 | when-will-israel-raid-gaza-aid-flotilla | Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 16–18 ET? | 76,635,531 | 76,635,531 |
df335deddf069e04a7a0dd1d102b74d79d6c1768 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x9b0c33e37f40c39b5305659d3eeb56fea6dccc8285259f4c6a7d3c48c818d10d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Andrew Cuomo gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary? | Event: nyc-mayor-dem-primary-1st-round-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.0009989004004096e-07
2. Question: Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? | Event: fordow-nuclear-facility-d... | no | 1 | when-will-israel-raid-gaza-aid-flotilla | Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 19-21 ET? | 76,755,828 | 76,755,828 |
9a2f37b4d2a85f245dbf3fa20ab6ac923d1d2e89 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xd459f7a9a61a7c36807a0a4066cbc1579e9b6277894baf778569f026ff5e69fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? | Event: fordow-nuclear-facility-destroyed-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July? | Event: trump-announces-end-of-military-operations-against-iran-before-july |... | no | 0 | will-rfk-jr-find-the-cause-of-autism-before-november | Will RFK Jr. find the cause of Autism before November? | 76,766,217 | 78,449,367 |
fad2958d3d53467679d0d25e49fd3518079e8b18 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x854a31e66264fc7ac7443951377167aaee8e50cb22821c409a34af52f815840c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July? | Event: trump-announces-end-of-military-operations-against-iran-before-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.013725647298946524
2. Question: U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July? | Event: us-refuels-israel... | yes | 0.000098 | us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-december-31 | U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31? | 76,808,332 | 76,808,332 |
7c661a45992f2cfa97fd50e955fd04c84086befd | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x01b8a3a88a9ebe4f1bbb35ebfa6a170be07ef5b446c0dd2992c02f883f944ae9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July? | Event: us-refuels-israeli-jets-for-strikes-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Another Houthi strike on Israel before July? | Event: houthi-strike-on-israel-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | malawi-presidential-election-981 | Will Peter Mutharika win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? | 76,872,474 | 76,872,474 |
3958bfb522791450bcd09e7ea1bb81def8092d59 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x6cf3987128ef2424eefe80ade1ca390a88d4d1f08ae5d970fbf4d4179cce6ce1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Another Houthi strike on Israel before July? | Event: houthi-strike-on-israel-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? | Event: israel-and-saudi-arabia-normalize-relations-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.521987110938002
... | no | 1 | malawi-presidential-election-981 | Will Lazarus Chakwera win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? | 76,872,474 | 76,872,474 |
fdaab2a2585c451590d59092ed6425a368f6ccc6 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x520d58265732adade189367a3889a80d0a9c18a6f28866450fec1572c2a05c6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? | Event: israel-and-saudi-arabia-normalize-relations-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.521987110938002
2. Question: Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $43M? | Event: f1-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | when-will-israel-raid-gaza-aid-flotilla | Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 25-27 ET? | 76,997,131 | 76,997,131 |
5539de9c6788df4d853a06914097a0a584fadf48 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x3333df824dc92c055eecd26bf8be70da24c7f3db8999105802b95d8722bf225c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $43M? | Event: f1-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $43–47M? | Event: f1-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next ... | yes | 1 | who-will-drop-out-of-nyc-mayor-race-first | Will no one drop out first? | 77,024,788 | 77,024,788 |
f65a5149fa6e781050d0968634e1377938d9d064 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x09b3e4c716df2579afa0ede1bf00edd84f8cbe1e335785f90336e7a909c52f8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $43–47M? | Event: f1-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next reconciliation bill be passed before July? | Event: when-will-the-reconciliation-bill-passe | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 0.789454 | us-government-shutdown-by-october-1 | US government shutdown by October 1? | 77,070,940 | 77,070,940 |
dde5c54c8a73cb8c3856de991f5b32c3f54890a4 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x1e1ec8877ef12158ebdcad27ee4639121ac84031379b0b97538fcd5d9f7d80b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next reconciliation bill be passed before July? | Event: when-will-the-reconciliation-bill-passe | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? | Event: will-tesla-launch-a-driverless-robtotaxi-service-before-july | Choice: no... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september | Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | 77,110,802 | 77,110,802 |
9c82b24046cbc4f899d2d3c74673bdf714ac3285 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x5252e1eff61bb24aead65206b9a03c782a1779783126e098b718739f5fbcc9d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? | Event: will-tesla-launch-a-driverless-robtotaxi-service-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? | Event: israel-and-syria-normalize-relations-in-2025 | Cho... | yes | 1 | when-will-israel-raid-gaza-aid-flotilla | Will Israel not raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30 ET? | 77,121,650 | 77,121,650 |
843d640fabf8a92076e0edc180320aa02492f16d | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xc40cbb2d7f5d2c43c624bd5b1d0b18cd3d0682b3937363ec7c1ad1d13bee107e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? | Event: israel-and-syria-normalize-relations-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9803924269090066
2. Question: Israel x Syria security deal before September? | Event: israel-x-syria-territorial-agreement-by-end-of-2025 | Choice: no ... | yes | 0.000004 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 77,295,169 | 77,295,169 |
8c1e2c85e9ac366edd749342672dc05fcd8f93b5 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x549419d728f8b15501d4f17f3f56440c53043caaeb1a00abe188ba94f48fb316 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel x Syria security deal before September? | Event: israel-x-syria-territorial-agreement-by-end-of-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.2654813147668644e-06
2. Question: Thailand strikes Cambodia by Friday? | Event: thailand-strikes-cambodia-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | the-official-release-party-of-a-showgirl-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "The Official Release Party of a Showgirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 38m? | 77,365,778 | 77,365,778 |
3379b69f7bda358774ec7237a7057a92125c5bbe | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x2df0f9131944410c596a5ec62c3c19d2dde36d97002e9a236ea5323ffe1a9be4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Thailand strikes Cambodia by Friday? | Event: thailand-strikes-cambodia-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC before August? | Event: will-microstrategy-hold-620k-btc-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Google have t... | yes | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | 77,489,175 | 77,489,175 |
9429bb3820724ce0e0aeaa5ed99d54e8f190f795 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x186e16547cd6f9c8c92d85daa3939cfd5a5db37ff0d7210feae56f6796a6eaf6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC before August? | Event: will-microstrategy-hold-620k-btc-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 1 | nothing-ever-happens-october | Nothing Ever Happens: October | 77,630,103 | 77,630,103 |
562ff9e02865cf3b0069954992e090a863089b31 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xa9b4d63db8031fbc369d863e1e9dea77296ab49ddade6793f1938fe0c76e7d10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump meet with Putin by September 30? | Event: will-trump-meet-with-putin-again-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Fed governor res... | yes | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? | 77,708,220 | 77,708,220 |
56094d02fb6e9ff36d75ac33b4d3d91b784b6806 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x51c3455dd5be1637b7a242acc8846664dabb9dea666ad4074057d55168a60639 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump meet with Putin by September 30? | Event: will-trump-meet-with-putin-again-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Fed governor resigns by October 31? | Event: another-fed-governor-out-by-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast raise $40M for cle... | no | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Will the Government shutdown end before October 15? | 77,708,221 | 77,708,221 |
4604c96a671b944153bfa6396e56944094f65528 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xce295bc26fb49a30737aba33d7333b719b28408a5a053bcf6b6c85d03cd5c3b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed governor resigns by October 31? | Event: another-fed-governor-out-by-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? | Event: will-mrbeast-raise-40m-for-clean-water-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: No ch... | yes | 1 | next-japanese-prime-minister | Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | 77,978,371 | 77,978,371 |
2675ce30fd3b8e5e05d1f3555767bd9631918ffa | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0xa377950920e161c15d8b96206848ebe676568380524ce9f8fddefaed00a8a868 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? | Event: will-mrbeast-raise-40m-for-clean-water-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Que... | no | 0 | nothing-ever-happens-jerome-powell-edition | Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition | 78,148,595 | 78,148,595 |
21e2e4c0025034159a66838e200ae604192a4b41 | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x43df7084bde04918b83541a43279051f9b3bc3124990ca1d6a0fe67f612f5b4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-august | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | cameroon-presidential-election | Will Paul Biya win the Cameroon Presidential Election? | 78,249,815 | 78,249,815 |
9a2c758e9cd51782094508c1abae58fcabb145ca | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x617c7a90eda304d6875abfefa3638ecedb2fffe3321aa207a9e23e8fc686fb75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-august | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | fed-decisions-in-2025 | Will the Fed cut-pause-pause in 2025? | 78,334,026 | 78,334,026 |
33c6afe58099bc5f3a80c1891d9cfafe9919cede | 0x09d600cfc7437488da4892884c51843f244e0fda | 0x8e9b6942b4dac3117dadfacac2edb390b6d62d59c14152774bb5fcd983fc134e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? | Event: will-tesla-launch-a-driverless-robotaxi-service-by-october-31 | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? | 78,334,026 | 78,334,026 |
a5863828918d8701c0b469f8065850bef09d4ed2 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xfac7fd0e53395dbfb6ca7b26db9715413308039d38a57bb29d2de0dbad78bf24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24?
Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | 75,615,576 | 75,615,576 |
16f9aa4292c6dc95f53b01b610a6bfee293b46ff | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x74444c3c61f5c0b98ac7027ce225946e296bd666dc54b34f3fa77ee3bd318be8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw?
Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"ch... | no | 1 | bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | 75,865,923 | 75,865,923 |
4bd636d5f2697684d7bd7b81f43809b1d75f3f1c | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x892ccab1964cdd0d53a114dad0a58fc183e2b608c0136274c26b5229df704dbe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30?
Event: f... | no | 1 | fl1-lor-lil-2025-08-30 | Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | 75,865,923 | 75,865,923 |
ada6e1f65f03d343fa237fee70d85d87dcf30e56 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x9226d32c4f167577b15ffd004b307051ce3f6fd433ea41a80663e262153b22e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | yes | 1 | bun-hof-ein-2025-08-30 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-08-30? | 75,865,923 | 75,865,923 |
b4d2bf25dfeee48300117e879ebd10a36682d13f | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x989039c46654ce3d578794dab48ffa4f0687072a3df13db3c8bdce2b77fd1daf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | no | 1 | bun-hof-ein-2025-08-30 | Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? | 75,865,923 | 75,865,923 |
cb4b4fd7209b0ed715aa7d1ce15a3c9b12513a50 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x488b0e6289dae794d6d4faeeb51dc326a3cbf5f3651b8bda0a105085aac49b74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | no | 1 | epl-liv-ars-2025-08-31 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-31? | 75,901,778 | 75,901,778 |
9383ab727a2fcd591ec40194f813a40b309f3812 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x4a8abeaf141e8a7dd2805f1d46ecd30e231beb2e0174ec9d010f9a9faa9c1846 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | yes | 1 | fl1-asm-str-2025-08-31 | Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-08-31? | 75,901,778 | 75,901,778 |
eecef32c7e68b26cca9a42c806371f6f527c2e89 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xa08c0125b6642a0b0fe081faa3f76973746f1a915a0c95cdb1dde5c2ecbd5ffc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | yes | 1 | bun-dor-uni-2025-08-31 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-08-31? | 75,901,778 | 75,901,778 |
84becf80c58dc994ddfc1f98a92baa6a47df4809 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xbc9d146c91b2bb2a739edc112a9ecbd24ae0853eda87364d87b25251440149b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | no | 1 | fl1-asm-str-2025-08-31 | Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-08-31? | 75,901,778 | 75,901,778 |
b6faa071219bd4d208a9cb2a796c43051fd6a6d7 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xe4dddb90e251570b62e68f792227b433456efbae2348e6a503ad08f27a6cad02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | no | 1 | fl1-asm-str-2025-08-31 | Will AS Monaco FC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? | 75,901,778 | 75,901,778 |
341eed7ffc9ea7e127a42ac24439b442110a52e0 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x62cc025897bd9375d7042ed1458412737d64763aa82ccb5432a990392c802d23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | no | 1 | bun-mai-lei-2025-09-13 | Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-09-13? | 76,428,036 | 76,428,036 |
3a71e9ee4b23c824a76d2a6521dea85aea2604ae | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x8d6de9d7cdada197cd2c77c1013508b7c873a120b40c3d6185a6c2c02ef6d37b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | no | 1 | bun-hei-dor-2025-09-13 | Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | 76,428,036 | 76,428,036 |
840c26b884927a004b19c79baa46abbdd31a7b63 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x624b7f6735f380fae2a05482167c101dc675f080120398cdfa8a9996d8a804c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | no | 1 | epl-mac-mun-2025-09-14 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-14? | 76,464,896 | 76,464,896 |
4816ec2f27adc25523ac7f50d6e84fcb5a75b79d | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x774c912a1bc4ac49a2416bcd09ffd45e89021f55f82277af6fc6faf765c6616a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-mun-2025-09-14 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14? | 76,464,896 | 76,464,896 |
5b8acd0725394248a87a9d23cacfcafbc2356fa6 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x92ecb632d16424f313a03e8faa9a792992d014b7c24c79a93b174cc9a4f6e662 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | no | 1 | epl-mac-mun-2025-09-14 | Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | 76,464,896 | 76,464,896 |
e5bef796b598735afb77b6ac23f7ae82a98adc83 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x2f373d0fb0c5a960fa27e3935554a383251ea30339e5a4edf1fad46f9f71cb94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | no | 1 | epl-liv-eve-2025-09-20 | Will Everton win on 2025-09-20? | 76,688,374 | 76,688,374 |
ba345ddac7c236d82808666e6e073694ee835b33 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xbfb60c899c3f90c0db94aeabf0b437f004d8a7e059da5c0def434ee7b3c58b0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | no | 1 | epl-mun-che-2025-09-20 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? | 76,706,364 | 76,706,364 |
ae7a8bdc8287a4312f73799b926a148421193718 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xbe83fd6f01f4f9926740f942641af1c67e21a27c85401037a017bea973ab4323 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | yes | 1 | mls-sje-stl-2025-09-20 | Will St. Louis City SC win on 2025-09-20? | 76,723,104 | 76,723,104 |
a06e4b216be2211b8fc7606d0db4e6faf238e513 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xe9ec1c2120dc8520bb6eec1c397472c17e6e70c04e2cf2b562ba3ec0c937024a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | no | 1 | mls-sje-stl-2025-09-20 | Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw? | 76,723,104 | 76,723,104 |
b8f815579c991bf8f9805877bbeadd545112562a | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x20814dcbb96837aa10454996d295b35d34b8a7f6830033250b99286a7de74fbc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | no | 1 | bun-ein-uni-2025-09-21 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-21? | 76,734,368 | 76,734,368 |
0878a5864ba03cc7dae9c93fc1e0a40d7128afd7 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x35e17a5949163833203e1903213f4da2baf1277c6246f158aad9b431493ee0d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | yes | 1 | sea-tor-ata-2025-09-21 | Will Atalanta win on 2025-09-21? | 76,734,368 | 76,734,368 |
f72de2fbac222fabf3bab9eaa297fbedb66fdff2 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x34727f4d1a8555dab0ce9b822ff03c78cca4615867a4a7fb09c59e50a00287c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | no | 1 | sea-int-sas-2025-09-21 | Will Inter vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? | 76,749,542 | 76,749,542 |
0a60db3708c6e2bfb8d61a862223ed81b054ca99 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xbefc4789222823968516a68fc264c6d77df1297bfe88fa75533a5a80ee79e3d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | yes | 1 | sea-int-sas-2025-09-21 | Will Inter win on 2025-09-21? | 76,749,542 | 76,749,542 |
7f52f1081da674010927960b49f70794aa0ad84c | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x0b986508ada6fb896f012a34cf085a2e8007c0031ca43b9cc745308fb600478f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | yes | 1 | lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Will Getafe vs. Alaves end in a draw? | 76,875,077 | 76,875,077 |
ff964a4910d0a01a97a391f7c270387679e45a44 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x1967162a4525f03e2c0da0160fddedf5b42d47c0637995aa2f6eafcd890c8f8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | yes | 1 | uel-nic-rom-2025-09-24 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-09-24? | 76,875,077 | 76,875,077 |
82c86bc4daca8b0a323f3f0d6e10abd59586c8e9 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x26841ef913afddc8fe1ff2b5e2a0731111fd33c09e1c9091b6e604d0d9fcbf41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | no | 1 | lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-09-24? | 76,875,077 | 76,875,077 |
5d4c7765a1fd9fdc86af590cbba5b744c633e7ea | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x2c17cfbd96352ccd3efc72f8c19e03f0e3540d429f8e5c9c002394ae48eed16f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | yes | 1 | lal-rso-mal-2025-09-24 | Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-09-24? | 76,875,077 | 76,875,077 |
ee621345fc988bf5140081645c5adbc7693987d0 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x645b783e5f715f7e02a7086c6a6668f3e5c7d9db02089dd8182c3de915206c72 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | no | 1 | uel-nic-rom-2025-09-24 | Will Nice vs. AS Roma end in a draw? | 76,875,077 | 76,875,077 |
59e72d56fe3fc377df14909f0dbff998ebd80cb3 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x9c2b40e596fb583e05c950a84fa8b6e5e90eda1366884599d1e5a180189bbdab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | no | 1 | lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Will Alaves win on 2025-09-24? | 76,875,077 | 76,875,077 |
c2be597db09b29bc68275ba3c33a1a0b8951c90c | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xa8d9b6fa879247d9060a30ed15e4a42e4f1cdf8e4acd769c161a5248b34445d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | no | 1 | uel-mal-lud-2025-09-24 | Will Malmo FF win on 2025-09-24? | 76,875,077 | 76,875,077 |
d7fc6539f27ef5e566f0b0b42511750199caf144 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xfe9bc363f7bfe187b52d4b798b008f66cc2e2eaccc5a6d13cd8ac2d217b2c113 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-... | no | 1 | uel-utr-lyo-2025-09-25 | Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-09-25? | 76,912,678 | 76,912,678 |
871c3d40f8b228070162b07b5eae6c893dc60efe | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x2f7549f966e143a605569315bc017e88fa21b1e752f20121f386565c33d3f025 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? | Event: bun-lei-hei-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-08-30? | Event: b... | no | 1 | cdr-jus-atl-2025-09-27 | Will Atlètic Sant Just FC vs. Atlético Calatayud CF end in a draw? | 76,990,723 | 76,990,723 |
a62ecbfb02c1560db2e30b0faa471a8cdb56abb7 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x37a683cb0fe365e490bb84cbbf47276cc0320f412d2a115ce0bb73bd4a92c571 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | Event: fl1-lor-lil-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-hof-ein-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? |... | no | 1 | lal-mad-rea-2025-09-27 | Will Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | 76,990,723 | 76,990,723 |
31acd42f070bff0790fade6513b0521191865607 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xcb7445f708cdacd80760765f6c81c0e7000ce84f9089cd143e0e492e43e24127 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-hof-ein-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? | Event: bun-hof-ein-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-31? | Ev... | yes | 1 | cdr-jus-atl-2025-09-27 | Will Atlètic Sant Just FC win on 2025-09-27? | 76,990,723 | 76,990,723 |
1cff7c67d7bc1c74445c7f8b021739601a9c2f13 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xd895ed2c9a4965dd92baec270a46a64842fa0c4093750f62eae913c3a10648d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? | Event: bun-hof-ein-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-31? | Event: epl-liv-ars-2025-08-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-08-31? | Event: fl1... | no | 1 | epl-mac-bur-2025-09-27 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-27? | 76,990,723 | 76,990,723 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.