sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
085223d1cfd1d1cafbf88f7d531274414882a73f | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xe5be74104ba28de68d305e77f2607f1740b3593099d276018f64dad124aafca0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-31? | Event: epl-liv-ars-2025-08-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-08-31? | Event: fl1-asm-str-2025-08-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-08-31? | Event: bun-dor-uni-2025-08-... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-bur-2025-09-27 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-27? | 76,990,723 | 76,990,723 |
bfc37ca3ca968e0207be5465bb83b3b3793c0be9 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xede591d96c0f11b9a0744617911e702ea61916df322b877cdf5a1dd8d2b5827a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-08-31? | Event: fl1-asm-str-2025-08-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-08-31? | Event: bun-dor-uni-2025-08-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-08-31? | Event: fl1-as... | yes | 1 | epl-che-bri-2025-09-27 | Will Brighton win on 2025-09-27? | 76,990,723 | 76,990,723 |
2b619e64414a1d155727a32f1dd55cb1ae357516 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xf20a6d7850786b4e7a75266ca3ed20464c758b0e045e2aa04806cfeda8c1cabb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-08-31? | Event: bun-dor-uni-2025-08-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-08-31? | Event: fl1-asm-str-2025-08-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AS Monaco FC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a d... | no | 1 | bun-moe-ein-2025-09-27 | Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-09-27? | 76,990,723 | 76,990,723 |
e2091a245419f4b3aabfd710e63f6b21fc031f42 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x5ccdf2f2bf8f9d51d20c4933f8bdec15feea18384fe39cfc34fc3a7e8ab7eab0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-08-31? | Event: fl1-asm-str-2025-08-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? | Event: fl1-asm-str-2025-08-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-09-13? |... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-ful-2025-09-28 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-28? | 77,015,656 | 77,015,656 |
ce93c05ece7d5c46b5903a8bd5abc1cce2ac4636 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x363930b3c2dea29633227b855d45792dce08080a4b469a2aec3d7384209ba33f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AS Monaco FC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? | Event: fl1-asm-str-2025-08-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun-mai-lei-2025-09-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. Borussia Dortmund en... | no | 1 | fl1-lil-lyo-2025-09-28 | Will Lille OSC win on 2025-09-28? | 77,032,725 | 77,032,725 |
db284cec1cec4cf80bb7908045bb10ef6d2764b3 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xc197812e9ba8822fb8faa7098abcf5d6b9e4ee02236c0ddf925aa05159e13348 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun-mai-lei-2025-09-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: bun-hei-dor-2025-09-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-14? | E... | yes | 1 | epl-new-ars-2025-09-28 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-28? | 77,032,725 | 77,032,725 |
b8cd28c6354ec9ad41733ede0eb319cc1b5739ec | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xeb045c2f079bb10f09c8b3d5fb62a29ccdd4567ecdfef18b8ea297e3c1213c8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: bun-hei-dor-2025-09-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-14? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2025-09-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14? ... | no | 1 | bun-koe-stu-2025-09-28 | Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-09-28? | 77,032,725 | 77,032,725 |
a2ed4a9f36c961584164a8ba835dcd35e16114cc | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xf52cc444115aeb1fdead4413e7c7c122fd0c7952a8bf2de55611f34365207eb2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-14? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2025-09-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? ... | no | 1 | lal-bar-rso-2025-09-28 | Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-09-28? | 77,032,725 | 77,032,725 |
54c3b12eeacff44a9d5a0d62b48dede3ba048858 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x7f5f2edb8dde6913890a0880560d7a5ebc917f6aadbf9da6527ce918721be42d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2025-09-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-09-20? | Event: e... | no | 1 | ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-30? | 77,108,413 | 77,108,413 |
8da00f0e33c969ef7c6d0465875d2f5353e240f6 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x8b4215f5e7fd77762127f684b80a5684c7c019b3ac0e809add74f9d6f766baf5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2025-09-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-liv-eve-2025-09-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-mun-ch... | yes | 1 | uel-not-mid-2025-10-02 | Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-10-02? | 77,208,447 | 77,208,447 |
7efe01a85704f5501e924d1185d6662ac5e09bee | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x9975d441190b7a04b8f8386fc76b6df13836c1497d71001656ea914586c09076 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-liv-eve-2025-09-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-mun-che-2025-09-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will St. Louis City SC win on 2025-09-20? | Event: mls-sje-stl-2025-09-20 | C... | yes | 1 | uel-clv-paok-2025-10-02 | Will Celta de Vigo win on 2025-10-02? | 77,208,447 | 77,208,447 |
ecc6639a9da18d1ab20036870f0b974d48b509c2 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xac7102a2585dd50b53502accb9f8ccf988727deb653a9a8156f2f57317c2e8cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-mun-che-2025-09-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will St. Louis City SC win on 2025-09-20? | Event: mls-sje-stl-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw? | E... | no | 1 | uel-not-mid-2025-10-02 | Will Nottingham Forest vs. FC Midtjylland end in a draw? | 77,208,447 | 77,208,447 |
bb6e89647e521b3c6ef245e09ad3b1e960fc553a | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xacacf8d5c7ad420fa16bdfff094cd543b27c89155db20dfcded6ce0c4f696087 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will St. Louis City SC win on 2025-09-20? | Event: mls-sje-stl-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw? | Event: mls-sje-stl-2025-09-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 202... | no | 1 | uel-mta-din-2025-10-02 | Will Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Dinamo Zagreb end in a draw? | 77,208,447 | 77,208,447 |
4d40c54eea008183c5dd246d9ea19e1b77e5ebe4 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xed1fc16c1df1267a1da15c4fc18759922d7e44e14b0143e7a7ebf2f3af946579 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw? | Event: mls-sje-stl-2025-09-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-21? | Event: bun-ein-uni-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-09-21? |... | yes | 1 | uel-bas-stu-2025-10-02 | Will FC Basel win on 2025-10-02? | 77,208,447 | 77,208,447 |
39097e579798b5f12b5e37c79f212347f96677c2 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x48b455fc3dd7bb52946de320c8ce4f822bf4789b575f5a2193a6bf39474f2293 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-21? | Event: bun-ein-uni-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-09-21? | Event: sea-tor-ata-2025-09-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? | Event: sea-i... | yes | 1 | lal-osa-get-2025-10-03 | Will Osasuna win on 2025-10-03? | 77,256,877 | 77,256,877 |
c9617443e6a39a144cfadf0afd0360f916d960d1 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x980ee5e9de620e695b37f940594bddb5529716d35b0577f91534f4cb76cb02fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-09-21? | Event: sea-tor-ata-2025-09-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? | Event: sea-int-sas-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-21? | Event: sea-int-sas-2025-09... | yes | 1 | fl1-pfc-lor-2025-10-03 | Will Paris FC win on 2025-10-03? | 77,256,877 | 77,256,877 |
fd49ea52e9a89e57e34ba7086f7d4409aa8f8892 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x2d7bf021aaabb016eff73c73dd26f9ba227e1ab1d574c4bbd54ceccf7bf6150c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? | Event: sea-int-sas-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-21? | Event: sea-int-sas-2025-09-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Getafe vs. Alaves end in a draw? | Event: lal-get-ala-20... | yes | 1 | ere-zwo-psv-2025-10-04 | Will PSV win on 2025-10-04? | 77,272,526 | 77,272,526 |
c09187c1db5c1ad8274ef216428093342271aefb | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x75b8a5b9accb7c464bd5c04271c42e91b52a1b1013471cf52c965287a336c093 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-21? | Event: sea-int-sas-2025-09-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Getafe vs. Alaves end in a draw? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-nic-rom-2025-09-24 | Choic... | yes | 1 | bun-ein-bay-2025-10-04 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-04? | 77,272,526 | 77,272,526 |
ffeb09e1e4f739e52c5298aaa384e0130ce3e0f0 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xdd7a014a732fcf086f75849e068903dc70bb19f06f8c90a8146b8f23c7a1d03e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe vs. Alaves end in a draw? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-nic-rom-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-2... | no | 1 | lal-bil-mal-2025-10-04 | Will Mallorca win on 2025-10-04? | 77,272,526 | 77,272,526 |
2e83aa7632040cb81c3053c779794bb5b78aba4b | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0xf743701e4eeeb3963cd10fa700aa0396282a664f76c5dcde254ebd91f439a037 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-nic-rom-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-rso-mal-2025-09-24... | no | 1 | ere-zwo-psv-2025-10-04 | Will PEC Zwolle win on 2025-10-04? | 77,272,526 | 77,272,526 |
00a43149884c8bda72bb7c36d6fa3e0deccdf987 | 0x09fa00587f0296df16eaf115fa24b64d8778c9ff | 0x488d0716708464c86c0e57418c1cac8c0815856c92af58fad67c2c2b6169f56b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-rso-mal-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nice vs. AS Roma end in a draw? | Event: uel-nic-rom-2025-... | yes | 1 | mls-min-skc-2025-10-04 | Will Minnesota United FC win on 2025-10-04? | 77,287,014 | 77,287,014 |
b702f8a31a09eae6f4f0225701385e150534da14 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x209ed01cbf86a271c7dde4acd969ce34591a3b6df445bbccc3bf7a26a593f981 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | 72,301,145 | 72,301,145 |
8411503685e1a4495a447ac060f4bd44772a1538 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x4746cda59d7d6045471cbe90642a3cb0323a4b47b0c7a6f4376cdcbd78c62a64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30?
Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | 72,301,145 | 72,301,145 |
887b48288f76e51434a3225310c5187b18db60b3 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xe63332b05d45de8f89340ed0742426b29e8a86207f6c7bcd0107fad9e97450bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30? | 72,301,145 | 72,301,145 |
a4fb9226e72c0d5fdb3a38a814d3001c09823c99 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x8dd95aeb04e278050afe01cd7e0b34eb9c27d751e97f857051cdd68e23d2fd4a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Will Elon tweet less than 230 times May 30–June 6? | 72,383,933 | 72,383,933 |
e5c79427f46f7dda145fda96c330d76ea805e993 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x87e1b1422c69bdfeb40637073da106ac49df7c2e1b6b5a27e1f46ae4abf3803a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-3-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3 AM ET | 72,910,641 | 72,910,641 |
a170648ef81b11a06aadc35bc04577ddf1d666b3 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x75b5f41af2ad847300b232fd9b9126ed44da1f233c0a7ebc94f3f5382a49e533 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | up | 0.000074 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-18 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? | 72,910,674 | 72,910,674 |
b5e14a4ed579080cf536e439e46c2c4af12c29f5 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xdad4f29f013205759939a931bd172666177febf94c41a4a3b3e2ee37cd1b6be5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-7-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7 AM ET | 72,917,367 | 72,917,367 |
f38be52c8c255a0e9dd48ec123f68b4a61034a08 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x70a6fb3950ad7ab9090baf5d92ab536382e7a465e690448ea7520d16a8638517 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-8-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8 AM ET | 72,919,362 | 72,919,362 |
eefa4a44269ca3d9b4b5f85ceb6016245423c509 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xe82dae174ed68b89a5c2327be814ba80e5f351c6dc54bc08c44bd2097f0c2d5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-19 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? | 72,935,510 | 72,935,510 |
ea13ec6562f5553c6d93abac905fe97b1fc9210c | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xfa0c542ed2411601238c6d21a56c4866a719d82ee13aecafe4d465527417c9bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-6-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6 PM ET | 72,935,952 | 72,935,952 |
e2b620ef0b874a33316259aac2b99ec5f3ec5094 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x4601fc44fa887acfeea808337d004e960f0ea6203e0412ea879f96fd86c4ee66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | up | 0.000131 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-9-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9 PM ET | 72,941,213 | 72,941,213 |
bf960ddbb88a784063498d7d3f16122590774982 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x6b98ae3f3800ff1045f53adc2edb5eb7910519fecd414e4b870b750e7f1e1967 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-10-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10 PM ET | 72,942,672 | 72,942,672 |
18f458754a072580ebe5cc107ff4553c659b205d | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x10eb275d39723373e9c50020f614aa34525806f6e925ff1526198a466d06eff5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | up | 0.000082 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-11-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11 PM ET | 72,944,628 | 72,944,628 |
e50ae030dd8ea33a33dca52e806caf96183da2f2 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x13e07c297c6d15aba1ffd3cb18278861a7b3b7337a549de3fdd8203816ba0836 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | down | 0.000057 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET | 72,947,529 | 72,947,529 |
28ec23ed848b95c02a47c8ec031e84cfd0f0e66a | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x17abf144c563086e02f0dba799c2cd3ba30132c30f205a9cff88c7ef7150cf6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET | 72,947,908 | 72,947,908 |
a830b8f7c96952a1a18cd9a174965354fdd3818e | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xa898ed47afebe761859dfeb0ce6b96ba2a896c02b6bf8fe57e6fe5194db4d288 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | up | 0.000047 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET | 72,958,305 | 72,958,305 |
cea6e26db40325b0d22168218a8a0e9af78fb226 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x726cc0316e7fdf5a284e9a8b270ed2d7f96ee8d4f2e6d7d536520214d47aaa58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | up | 0.000021 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-20 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? | 72,969,133 | 72,969,133 |
4bad36dccd4133763f5a972f4243dc9e24bdad3b | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xa2806c846517a057e2b0f80e94dab2d53480432a68acc5fc49fffcb58486e610 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | up | 0.000022 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-7pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET | 72,978,581 | 72,978,581 |
2e3d39771bbc6b0bca7d220d9698f5304bc311a3 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xfcea5c64a38cb94a3ee060dee2008ffb0b2e1c607bf4e01456762eb3db2ebdd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET | 72,981,622 | 72,981,622 |
4ffb94ddfdc2a4b1cfce9d494e8f4f671f9d95ef | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x410a6843071c0f1efc46c29e3f9d265e8863e9c8f5f27018bc606bb4e678707f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET | 72,983,302 | 72,983,302 |
fe3059e9f6d407abfbae7958bdefd09bb977b64e | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xd35742908d31cc91e6c7c07ba16f299119790339ff59f915e94c7c67fb55d6f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET | 72,984,962 | 72,984,962 |
a03159afc2b0314a8156809ad807d4e8b24f5111 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x9943b61c351008dfc9675d6e51b593f4d0536f0172c2334a0faae071f2a7279b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | down | 0.00001 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-20-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET | 72,986,687 | 72,986,687 |
b506cef24818e6640513680ad0c1897846c0264a | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x9641f70d03af2976c05d4000363ee52c28d4ad84b1d785d95a24a17a96d4fa62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | down | 0.000076 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-20-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET | 73,003,705 | 73,003,705 |
d4d61456d2b059b6cbc52234d4ac4ee8a60137a9 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xd6b655ea10f8c279643370902b7a34cf7112c6dead1e7fcfc4424794d3a870a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-23-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET | 73,125,173 | 73,125,173 |
59eb0cf25a3fa230f79fba709f2b67b7237a9e6d | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x27cc0b1246d55b1e0cef127d8775099b9e6365a9d68d75822c180768c10ee121 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | up | 0.000001 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-24 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? | 73,140,023 | 73,140,023 |
6e715302534ced737893f16d2d361ec727706421 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x1abf1ecfb5f8599972f062fab306de5cbee1f9cb73f8834737319323f875541f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-23-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET | 73,143,477 | 73,143,477 |
ec97dba8cfaa151bb45297dc17ddd4478eb2aa39 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x2834c4139015dfba92bade33c049a27b910715070d80573827ff4ff2ca1ce726 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET | 73,153,737 | 73,153,737 |
4f1c8dd91682722e97c9c22710be710c27ce324f | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xf1c398e38bdcb948b045dd45041135284359a3cce4fabe7513788d44b0f8d7cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | down | 0.000061 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET | 73,163,982 | 73,163,982 |
45da28978e51e1f542c96ba3424d1f779a479aeb | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xb7ed6a6a97a2292adae85def38762088eccee1b07c0b947a2f3814120de61c51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET | 73,165,331 | 73,165,331 |
e94ef1b467b25ea0cb71bebd1775b82f9a96db1b | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xa9f5c2671f061b449d35e603627bc22ad137acb56eb3422eaa4bd84ef31a9f8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-25 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? | 73,177,967 | 73,177,967 |
4f1a8c16f0b19733d0d9c4f855556a9292692e5b | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x461292ea135f23e699d4aca97f3d458d6cb8aab5cf8be1bce4b30ea15d2b7230 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–12... | down | 0.000043 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-7pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7PM ET | 73,180,631 | 73,180,631 |
320dcd8a268806b859a9f92b078f579db72dd30b | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x9324ec41560415fa7d83eb1df25debbc8ebabf2c7a7bc0db1516362a1b0d7e64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet less t... | down | 0.000082 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET | 73,182,244 | 73,182,244 |
743eae13e3dd83285c189253b8a73e949718a4b2 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xb88443454cb8d8fc38475b74971655ff1b27aaa2cce4373bd4b89340ca152c83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 230 times May 30–June 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin U... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9PM ET | 73,184,138 | 73,184,138 |
8ce43e42fcd52079c9c58f4c01e2e1172cb1e8af | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x8053934770fa14ac055b0cf19fdfee7ffd6dafb4fee5004a2727c67b841502ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 230 times May 30–June 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-3-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10PM ET | 73,185,729 | 73,185,729 |
3f62a58499983341ba6d4ce67c0ec3edab139100 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x887a82ce151ef4584c964a3f6c3a1fe6186f6e55d605d5bf3740ebbb99d5b5c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-3-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-18 | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.410549121689917e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7 A... | up | 0.000052 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET | 73,187,369 | 73,187,738 |
96f3dd86a907fe3e0be800ca9bac719cff8006fc | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xe73fa13072a8d7710f1ac7770d2b375658987a01c469c1929523fd089fa7ef98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-18 | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.410549121689917e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-7-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8 A... | down | 0.000084 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12AM ET | 73,190,881 | 73,190,881 |
8752c672793c61fe21e635a45f1d563218c24fee | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xc9cb4ae8e4f047d3875241b84789dbab41ce520633a85abc4e86e8ddc6f0233e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-7-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-8-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? | Even... | down | 0.000103 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET | 73,192,338 | 73,192,993 |
0af8cdcbec74a255a2f3ce68ac057dafc450cbd1 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x0c3029eb554018d4c6234fd5ebd3a6519275d6d1dbf35d782e06cb6339eaa67f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-8-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-19 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6 PM ET | Event: bi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET | 73,194,286 | 73,194,286 |
1c79162c0cf49b9d2b8c5f8811c06b7d85293548 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x29396f1939510e177e7af61d58329d4407e7e2a968b31e49027c6a69c4ec50de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-19 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-6-pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9 PM ET | Event: bi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET | 73,195,683 | 73,195,683 |
10ac1044b0dea3a9f976be8d58f3fb0d7f579f84 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x419a31b6384a4268114a5b25e743a9f9e6092dc87935e46b862cd60256e62f3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-6-pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-9-pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013081711087810285
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down -... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET | 73,199,090 | 73,199,090 |
ce97244ae1e5335a9a09a76d1bf195d1672d86e0 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x2842bfdf4fd3cfccbd9d7e143fa2dfb42c6332c7cbfeb77d9b20f1de814078f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-9-pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00013081711087810285
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-10-pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET | 73,206,008 | 73,206,008 |
34702954925e7b17ba5e1872f183a69c9300e452 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xa00b76eae43ef6f6ac1c99fa4b9ad10606ef1c0bf8345e445b3a34ee2e4706be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-10-pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-11-pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 8.237678537581141e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Dow... | down | 0.000012 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-26 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? | 73,220,425 | 73,220,425 |
85ce06fedc74dddf81a65f3eab1822d13c1ef1ef | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xb72380139db576556b1bd7649d3d418721e48c0ec0d1f3e6e78ea5090b07b975 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-18-11-pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 8.237678537581141e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 5.6863681354730904e-05
3. Question: ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET | 73,224,444 | 73,224,444 |
20b45c81dff22dcf57e93fd4c5a34638c3cbb524 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xc2e84891ec30c5f3384fe6d580478b7f7506705e270c9e92a406ec08df6ca90b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 5.6863681354730904e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down -... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10PM ET | 73,226,412 | 73,226,412 |
24c50e60a9d09b7386e58123957caa43d17f2c4a | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xef42cd5c11e09cac6f00e6776fecd083e698965b93af439366a0323d672f75cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 4.707221568919249e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on Jun... | up | 0.000153 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET | 73,227,909 | 73,227,909 |
cfc4cfc63f2a59d0f46c7a61bf6882c622fd8a3c | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x89a48f4afce74adbef7cf767f26b877ae2e9bc1287eb9e9a98b64764ecf8a2b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 4.707221568919249e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 2.148046140031088e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0.000106 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET | 73,229,484 | 73,229,484 |
c10b0f781584720735053b61eee44a51ba2f7400 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x31d9c18f15ea57a2a0e038ea38e36109687786ae5098e7f6e12b5922fb3b39b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 2.148046140031088e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-7pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 2.1580465706449946e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down... | up | 0.000037 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET | 73,231,176 | 73,231,176 |
4e88c92972a2d30111ab4cc2d0dab56d408d0da7 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xa018ed88bf89375c9f6b913b59ca16af940a30529a1d190f323e3f2cd6702c24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-7pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 2.1580465706449946e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Jun... | down | 0.000096 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET | 73,232,882 | 73,232,882 |
729422cbebcb0a6932a99585644a1f120e8bcd96 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xd40ebeff38371c3b7bf5ebdae03d6caa826bcd15bd3893eba1868954b01d8fc6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET |... | down | 0.000182 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET | 73,234,638 | 73,234,638 |
c96d01b01270ac88adcde2ae9659e84ff91c8edf | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x99174a74bbc5cc92fe5f3d0757670f8787420d63fd200e52b0b5f6e87b781c40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET... | up | 0.000237 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET | 73,236,308 | 73,236,308 |
0fe29bb0e7ed352ceb4718b0f2615e1b7ff6b1dd | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xa491d5b90e54659c067d4cbb68771bc01d13278d00a9ff636909c0d989434842 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-19-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-20-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.820096433346975e-06
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0.000001 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-27 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? | 73,259,784 | 73,259,784 |
73c906685b5b538a492296c513724caf980c8b90 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xb78db191bd6f4389b41ced1034416c8cfbbfdaa70ce52ead6910ec49e60ec6ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-20-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.820096433346975e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-20-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 7.649585116765581e-05
3. Question: B... | up | 0.000061 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-7pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7PM ET | 73,264,190 | 73,264,190 |
4b78af1e47b27bf70770e9f2e58afecbf4aeae32 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x8171958144467da7cc02cf2290b274355a8b3a302d2ee19dac14d64df5f8da2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-20-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 7.649585116765581e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-23-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9PM ET | 73,265,051 | 73,265,051 |
8c89efb1111f2f7304fa5674116292f6425cb7ae | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x648e920a9c0964d471cbd3729647bbf17001313321777536443de92294868096 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-23-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-24 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.313335058180043e-06
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM... | up | 0.000057 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10PM ET | 73,266,785 | 73,266,785 |
d40069d7b9db5cfd1eed13e9fdd359aad9b440d7 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x01c20c6be3c0d97fd86bc43cf9efbde96228493eee2c73b30ba3067396a84981 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-24 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.313335058180043e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-23-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM E... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-27-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3AM ET | 73,275,149 | 73,275,149 |
38742687b8f5e920bee729031ca523744104b191 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x016c34b4c6a79906694f96e7478cd66b9a08e359bbe8ace3645d1976300be4f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-23-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET | Ev... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? | 73,299,189 | 73,299,189 |
8ac39f048b8f2073d19e8a3753f8815aa17d4cbf | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x6fb63efc3affcc12754d1d3989b94fc72f9866e2185a7ba92ffc7dbda8bd9d3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 6.080369686476938e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Ju... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-27-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9PM ET | 73,307,230 | 73,307,230 |
d98574c1b1c178d3d92cc7a0f7110d912f8cea72 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xd35fa8062591c46828e3272759a6a57d772efecbf411a76868ac0952c15ebbad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 6.080369686476938e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on... | down | 0.000021 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-29 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? | 73,341,504 | 73,341,504 |
4a2c8f7bc174ae9f7b5fc60c22775d44c1cdefef | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xf909360706ef3bf933a5aa49b73bb4ccb60c0c69f3e98968a6f7ab2d4959e40a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-25 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7PM ET | Event: bit... | up | 0.000065 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-30 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 30? | 73,383,234 | 73,383,234 |
1adf591551e7ecc917f221ced956cacc6aa753a4 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xccb32843933e7e7928ad77672c5172f17c8774ffe4a01a31a607d6382880b875 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-25 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 4.315186200284542e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8PM... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10PM ET | 73,388,266 | 73,388,266 |
cd6b7b603747f3a02cc8ed825616ccc4886569f8 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x1ac47d39454bacaa3dcffeca3d03e18f0d3975e37dab94c1ab107676e81f4dcd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 4.315186200284542e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.237678537581141e-05
3. Question: Bitco... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11PM ET | 73,390,067 | 73,390,067 |
2bfe45b0aebd0fb69dbfc8b03f6067579c1a8d53 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x1dd7ad140a0527401908a9af6f277ea8f5c54e3e16cdb974a5ae94f2a8df0002 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.237678537581141e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Ju... | down | 0.000036 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7AM ET | 73,403,381 | 73,403,381 |
f557e969937091f5cc7e0ed87b8b76118a827d1b | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x801bf4827389c582eb9d4efd69122f43f291c92e284a700469159127367f3ebf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET |... | down | 0.00008 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-1 | Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | 73,421,363 | 73,421,363 |
a55287e73637ba98213edc1d1be56a2506b3ca6f | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x5248b22a6c03f6aea97d4c9d2e447da63322d9cb310ba1dc53b2eea919cbec18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.230376238397415e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 2AM ET | 73,435,566 | 73,435,566 |
e1e6f1b21cfe2656c5cf0828f7bcada3d649d31e | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xb53c54bce5baca588d2d12b7507262e8669f9e430bdf4545ed12e4a735e9c291 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-24-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.230376238397415e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.43371121486675e-05
3. Question: Bitc... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 3AM ET | 73,437,768 | 73,437,768 |
3d26b46bd099b6597e7cc91f741cdca5608a13c4 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x8c7559242aac4ea4b36d6647c89cf7427a5cf70d293e6ee4eeb8c2c216e3a974 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.43371121486675e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00010298560494266897
3. Question: Bit... | down | 0.000078 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4AM ET | 73,438,956 | 73,438,956 |
f352ae0d869f80429c500c3057be607b88d86979 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x08bc35459b56a420ddb2ffca8a711b564866d7d62d8ea4e18430eedc7fe63fb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00010298560494266897
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - J... | down | 0.000008 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-2 | Bitcoin Up or Down on July 2? | 73,458,693 | 73,458,693 |
aa14930c5459a30c868db7371408bad595bf68d1 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xf58516305a2f255bf652bd4c5829ffb55d1a61265a779a5a9ef5e8927794fb2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET | Ev... | down | 0.000046 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 9PM ET | 73,466,946 | 73,466,946 |
b712c145543f07c4ad14eeae3f72eb50d0a457b6 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x359cfbe87a786c01c8f1eef50a50db923dd685574b9e28f3cd69b3b5c6a3c333 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET | E... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 10PM ET | 73,468,781 | 73,468,781 |
bf0004f1c1252e02380ecbc10ef21e2920818af4 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x32efbb45345617135367376d487f1fc3546223e8556a83c32c7f163e807310ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? | Event:... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 11PM ET | 73,470,385 | 73,470,385 |
a748d9621dd437a59a2774e861e28a2303920c8d | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xa9c87f08ce5edefaffd37445f17ab7acf94d4c4e20219507ce0cf5b7e13e5a9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-26 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1763533352612105e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-12am-et-256 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12AM ET | 73,472,680 | 73,472,680 |
31cfc9b2db841e1ecec6a49c362c2740bf596449 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x456588f099ddd4620f4b88569be9c16cfadbddeeebdf9515b98ab1e541c7c326 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-26 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1763533352612105e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 1AM ET | 73,474,547 | 73,474,547 |
5cbf0b025e70f98fb4b270ea4c05d30cd4fce3bc | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x402b1fd72fe196243504da709252124b3c80f6eedf110b34d2ada5d26129d6a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET |... | up | 0.000033 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2AM ET | 73,475,420 | 73,475,420 |
0914e0bb0657ce99e11c46be6f041f961b29dff3 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x5581b3eca579e390507c5de1b1339f1aea59410c604f760805eb2907544efb2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00015299340340091825
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down -... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 3AM ET | 73,478,095 | 73,478,095 |
2e286ea2b5cd483a122cb4708b987c0f768024ad | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x0958c9df77c83b4a66f186094ba29b2ba7dbc86ddf2be66607a4f040bbd76cf7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-25-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00015299340340091825
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00010592121811621068
3. Question: B... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 7AM ET | 73,483,737 | 73,483,737 |
3fa883f46288c4a4ce1c23f87cd029fba6fbc3ff | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x3b5e3cfdf8c5d01f592eff6284ec44f1c65d16c1c20c493ec2e80677c36dc51d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00010592121811621068
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-1am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.725182720212426e-05
3. Question: Bitc... | up | 0.000177 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8AM ET | 73,485,459 | 73,485,459 |
eaa9b9599e90a927e39d5b5455e6a96ad4a52730 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x6056236933b88d98d2ae34569b1fe8266fe851c1659d9efe65f9df64264aa259 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-1am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.725182720212426e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.61192380199661e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | up | 0.000002 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 9AM ET | 73,486,992 | 73,487,204 |
e25b6842dd36ceec9cd93ab12202f9b7ddd3d893 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xf9d2209dc169c63eeaafe3938c1b7bcde19f9511b4e093b19e5eef4dbd223330 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.61192380199661e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00018242327218061303
3. Question: Bitco... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 10AM ET | 73,488,640 | 73,488,640 |
3211ae9a441fd3a6c976f2fca7bb7c613cdba178 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xaddd7c5cf4c61749f9232293d78cc0fca71670377a082b72cd437c4c954d093b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00018242327218061303
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00023735632465584082
3. Question: Bitco... | up | 0.000061 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 11AM ET | 73,502,165 | 73,502,165 |
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