sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
e66e7e97e6793f94a6683354e69c44ce45ce9f44 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x4d5e7c57a79bdae92d72d75dbe231bddad4cba6f7a908acee5b83d099f834cf8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00023735632465584082
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-27 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.313335058180043e-06
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Do... | down | 0.000006 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-7pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 7PM ET | 73,504,257 | 73,504,257 |
8832e77d1fa1cea81ae8ecdac8da5d0ee51c7ddf | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xc77f9445be8b48d0bd62e770166c49917bc974c9a3064d4c4f09fd2ecfb20852 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-27 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.313335058180043e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-7pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.080369686476938e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Dow... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8PM ET | 73,505,601 | 73,505,601 |
cc8588f53386d534f518e2a56c2685aa57fe3d06 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x6979488f90ec3700501f18f8f0ae6426175e6e5043b48d9b4527a703c38553a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-7pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.080369686476938e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June... | down | 0.000035 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 9PM ET | 73,507,506 | 73,507,506 |
369adad9e0395ab01db79904585f153aa204aabf | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xf579455477fe83d5cedfe04b5da3b2d3438085eaaba792d6f769edbaa00844b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.688323551843629e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Ju... | down | 0.000021 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 10PM ET | 73,509,163 | 73,509,163 |
68751225bb7ee728b4600f6ba51cbd5d5c4a2b2d | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x677483d4868b5d64d779100345df9cf1ac598cc6eef0c73c7df9cba24be52552 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-26-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.688323551843629e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-27-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on J... | up | 0.000028 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 11PM ET | 73,510,865 | 73,510,865 |
26faa028378f04b78e8f228b359325a466fd2797 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x7a4de74357e8ee78d54997727183082bb7ea3b81707a2e8f2ef304255ba918ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-27-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9PM ET | Event: bitco... | down | 0.000097 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12AM ET | 73,512,623 | 73,512,623 |
b67cdd0f6a50b8a1166a79dc029da14d877f41f9 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x33cf60af3f3d28110ef555667181381deb6b15cec854fd5cec0fe2b6e43e0d4a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-27-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? | Event: bitcoin-up-... | up | 0.000054 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 1AM ET | 73,514,286 | 73,514,286 |
348e29957f1d5c5ad31623c5ba62ca0711a22fbf | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x8709c7c7cca3dfbd45879a54e44cacc58a00e3d0a25f575c5c1a947140f5c3f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-27-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-29 | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.090396233355995e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 30? | ... | down | 0.00004 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 2AM ET | 73,516,121 | 73,516,121 |
bb1c8e6e4e387482f80a728e30d0d27a6a834360 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x1dbbcc59f2954ba791b27a82baa01d6661a7e78a6286435f86106ff56562d839 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-29 | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.090396233355995e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 30? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-30 | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.537760728544694e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2... | down | 0.000066 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-7-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 4AM ET | 73,681,525 | 73,681,525 |
9f17ad6d9acea63cfa80ba421cab21fb6177fe31 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x2506b4c7c582d30a5f87a27dfdb09339037c5917105f2c3ea98ef63e4c819312 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 30? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-30 | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.537760728544694e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11P... | down | 0.000042 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-7-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5AM ET | 73,683,084 | 73,683,204 |
ca10c94b63abb961a0446cb865f92efd93a1cffb | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xd217ff6d8aec0ce6fdedcde543d036150780fdc922c5f2beb01d399696413675 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7AM ET ... | up | 0.000032 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-7-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 6AM ET | 73,685,955 | 73,685,955 |
a20fee7b33839ec2007e797ada3031a2c4396b9d | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xcd1c6a6d2ffa62cafb48ad07e6f0d53261e0bfbd16b38a272404423c622570e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.579378114891177e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on... | up | 0.000003 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-7-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 7AM ET | 73,687,201 | 73,687,201 |
022e59fec1f59793b4941072298e4d20e57786a9 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x4a762a728fac29e7533d481d4c6cc183a6ef14bbca995b542c81fe41369b5df6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.579378114891177e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-1 | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.041565606480597e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Dow... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-7-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 10AM ET | 73,691,640 | 73,691,640 |
dc1937002a138861d67413fa07a420f0d68921c6 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xdda7eaa58ea5db0e096b8804e2cb14689f710b5510936249320d2517c754074a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-1 | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.041565606480597e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 3AM ET |... | up | 0.000008 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-7-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 8PM ET | 73,708,433 | 73,708,433 |
3ca923be7621c84e5590749c6b838fb689d1c47d | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xaa7e063dc87628eaa22143508721ca0e1f296436dd5fc35724e9215b42c87e0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4AM ET | Event: ... | up | 0.000041 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-7-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 9PM ET | 73,710,267 | 73,710,267 |
458c6fb634777c662f90f2be99a818093009b55d | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xb6d5eb53bcdde1a215340a80530d2948a9e1e365b07e2c5d0f9b758bb2d4cd97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 7.8447820244433e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 2?... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-7-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 10PM ET | 73,712,013 | 73,712,013 |
dffb91001e58e31d2bedfe363897f6534c8d4d0d | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xb6d7fe56bc85b16d6757cae9f2a9177e8beb3305be791bb313321ea3ddabf8e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 7.8447820244433e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 2? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-2 | Choice: down | Confidence: 7.846061560199002e-06
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | up | 0.000004 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-7-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 11PM ET | 73,713,781 | 73,713,781 |
509f4f41276d187c0a0d23f15b5adbd0fe2b71c1 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x81f6dd2554878abd3a65627dccaaf210b0be85729d40eecc76118fe3d76e2ee7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 2? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-2 | Choice: down | Confidence: 7.846061560199002e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 4.5763051785380063e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-8-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 6AM ET | 73,726,679 | 73,726,679 |
4c251f140bb33f0f6edcf38e9a73e48310abf16e | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x6a48a96cd9afe41749ba0aedd74bdaaf602774a619de3074a3fa3b7f810d44e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 4.5763051785380063e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Jul... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-8-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 7AM ET | 73,728,775 | 73,728,775 |
7d7a6f2439c6616f20831f42446cb50c5ea4b23c | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xbf7f845cbb582df3d9b1ec609e348c3fbd6bd50fade3af849a147eca3bba5940 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12AM ET | Ev... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-16-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 3AM ET | 74,019,615 | 74,019,615 |
195440747e05d84811068fc4c6e0b3a712b75b70 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0xa40ae70227bc62e6eb3389434dea692c94339abafd5da366e217e107cbf0724a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-12am-et-256 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 1AM ET |... | up | 0.000043 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-16-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4AM ET | 74,021,346 | 74,021,346 |
06b3d0c165363c89b73ffd0f114d651a72b88ee8 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x8b5d330113c2ec5d55984e7dcc102ecb5d00166e16bac6d38f97ada102ffd407 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-12am-et-256 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2AM ET | E... | up | 0.000088 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-16-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5AM ET | 74,022,912 | 74,022,912 |
8e570c3366d4eeb26e04acf8eab0943cb41f27e0 | 0x0a0ffdb0ae92e9bcf8536a1b8f5ca27f2a097f95 | 0x886346e69e1f15d133813b961c5a55246b24aaef78713eeed041fa3354d4011f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-2am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.2788575055404626e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2,... | down | 0.000021 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-16-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6AM ET | 74,025,558 | 74,025,558 |
29697fb18d501484c3fe31fdbcec361b11caf4dd | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Event: presidential-election-winner-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,979,361 | 63,979,361 |
18bf29e327e6c1df4957e1a4259bd26cd87fa539 | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0x6972c70dcc013803ddffa4205845bb165f58e65145e7e9aeffbb1c07720726a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship?
Event: world-chess-championship-game-14
Predict the user's choice a... | yes | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-14 | Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | 65,421,706 | 65,421,706 |
973902fe77caa2dc26365ceb874dc5b9057d7a87 | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0x113e7bb07041e41e9f8f8602980d54aaf1c3de81a6e8dc2527878cb68fd8f29f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target... | yes | 1 | nevada-margin-of-victory | Will the Democratic candidate win Nevada by 2.0%-3.0%? | 65,661,068 | 65,661,068 |
75c3716d60e46457edcfec4db7c02356fc5b58ad | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0x48a92cb42a1b28a795b056c38ba63cbe75fe2e1d604a4958023327962c3badf2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | uruguay-presidential-election-winner | Will Guido Manini Ríos win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? | 65,661,068 | 65,661,068 |
1d9a8ec74f845a56633ad33811331ced435bbaac | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0x4ec536d2f8a8658df89327cd0766b5a8b692914e9b7315e5dfac26bebb2e3792 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | uruguay-presidential-election-winner | Will Andrés Ojeda win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? | 65,661,068 | 65,661,068 |
5163eacf63edd597cd3b9dc55d97e9559eaf9902 | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0x5aeafa2d9c9865ebea3443688e67601f3e19c9565746954c5b839fe5fca245bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | nevada-margin-of-victory | Will the Republican candidate win Nevada by 0%-1.0%? | 65,661,068 | 65,661,068 |
208edcd1c57f142f8efb9b126545f092f89aaf31 | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0x63b1697d66131bce1b4d406599548bb6007671197a1596b6403335f2592a61f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | nevada-margin-of-victory | Will the Democratic candidate win Nevada by 3.0%-4.0%? | 65,661,068 | 65,661,068 |
7bb72eb08598b8b46b69f9965cab30fe1cee410a | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0x6c661a448ce62286d3f3f529e93d00d97e8490190802cccce32ad29163086307 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | uruguay-presidential-election-winner | Will Álvaro Delgado win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? | 65,661,068 | 65,661,068 |
ea5e4259690fa5a6ed6f60279b29459890826c2f | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0xa4020c9cda98297a3f7de0c0b1871848f835c16f8494a56ffac2a498c12fb5f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | nevada-margin-of-victory | Will the Democratic candidate win Nevada by 1.0%-2.0%? | 65,661,068 | 65,661,068 |
b302f305d87c7e9f4b5ded6a284eaf0045c6b1de | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0xc728249c400d6cb64e7c82ca0f642786c8f1a1f3a06e9fd69cc814ebef51c931 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | nevada-margin-of-victory | Will the Democratic candidate win Nevada by 0%-1.0%? | 65,661,068 | 65,661,068 |
d4920eb47e186abb85c484acd648fcd4ab6a4107 | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0xd6ef9d06d66cf066bb4225304009b14ce8354155c995bfedd3301828a17d0e86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 0.998401 | uruguay-presidential-election-winner | Will another candidate win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? | 65,661,068 | 65,661,068 |
05eab80ecc2192c8b0785bced12966db221b0abb | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0x0807370a763dd3f755a508fb87ef4b06f396512be4f069fb8f254500ee337acd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | fantasy-football-top-wr-2024 | Will Michael Pittman Jr. be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? | 67,749,698 | 67,749,698 |
4911551077a11124cd783d2ca86cb4dcf97eaba5 | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0x2d7c2c65ff4fc656027010fbcf8474e95947be92b83d3993884f7f8ccc3d1b73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Will Kyler Murray be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | 67,749,698 | 67,749,698 |
8f915e3b33847394f7b3722ddd582fcf4f819429 | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0x5e0716b56afc2485d1253d7c11ba1797c79a1c340c922bae8de929c9d0e33a6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | fantasy-football-top-wr-2024 | Will A.J. Brown be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? | 67,749,698 | 67,749,698 |
1f460353c64660917a9c962959b0e548d09fea42 | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0x72ec3b915253a6634fd68a6cfdfc15b609f692a72acd1dc2e8ab3061248d7fd8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Will Dak Prescott be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | 67,749,698 | 67,749,698 |
d7b88ee699e2c206384ad9974c072ededd7932d2 | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0x8cbab07bd6b0401bdbfaf494cb9610212c8dc2443e392a0db865d4e8eb3c51b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | belarus-presidential-election | Will Anna Kanopatskaya win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | 67,749,698 | 67,749,698 |
98e61d4a53c0194dd4bde35af00a87f6d07890c9 | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0x97503dabdc3332a6e13e299338a23d8afad810e7bef32f92c0c064d01a212d31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Will C.J. Stroud be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | 67,749,698 | 67,749,698 |
813cc9488cb5f2f6e2694f2cbb4f875c446ae5de | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0xd30592065c203fb93edc2d9e7cd0c4da5093f4ce7d57e85e55761c8ae27e3ce1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Will Patrick Mahomes be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | 67,749,698 | 67,749,698 |
48e770c4b61c2b15021f0d09e29e67f9a0fc5c9f | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0xe503e89ab492ea8cd6864e508b04562a447bda6816b93f2f3b982dd3c489c897 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | fantasy-football-top-wr-2024 | Will Nico Collins be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? | 67,749,698 | 67,749,698 |
c9c9920741b6f8bed4fa6dc1f6a5c57c3d464e5b | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0xf812c6937a53e0c962f30016a3771ed76eb94100390b89a65bb3ffc75c227193 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | fantasy-football-top-wr-2024 | Will Drake London be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? | 67,749,698 | 67,749,698 |
a69681afbffde80fed05b79a0440952eb06ba7d1 | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0x0453efcdf2717e3bdd35eaeba367090b8fcfb7d873770ca263852acdda393133 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | fantasy-football-top-wr-2024 | Will Chris Olave be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? | 67,749,715 | 67,749,715 |
f340e4446391c512b71acecd42f59c941da86c4c | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0x143f9a2f370ce837fb9e09318b21f09640670cb9597267bab66b3dc8c47d8fb2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Will Jordan Love be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | 67,749,715 | 67,749,715 |
66b5d23956e2538c42b2301dea95c8e667491151 | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0x16a920cf5afde2c3c2488e18c028d938d054e420e05b5516e30c6c64de0f1247 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | global-heat-increase-2024 | Global heat increase less than 1.22°C for 2024? | 67,749,715 | 67,749,715 |
43b1ad43e9b263fd39bac27b7ee3230b6d884029 | 0x0a7ab4d50d144e3a739876c67d1ce2c8b919c22b | 0x2cffd0db6c8b38b66534d8681858ea2acedc3ff90bc565d42a000ee2e3d04016 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | fantasy-football-top-wr-2024 | Will Marvin Harrison Jr. be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? | 67,749,715 | 67,749,715 |
a147d2bccfaadfd21bb56c3daddafcb314b5601d | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0xc6ec6619167e07e2ebdcc736645023ddd133fcbd61e00fb39aa42090ec2bd2c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament?
Event: dota-2-the-international-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 0.961089 | dota-2-the-international-2025 | Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | 76,439,500 | 77,974,858 |
7bd0835ceb1f917fa2a6dd1515d0fb82dcab99f8 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0xa0cd8d7f6c207acee801918c71532901ca3d98f884f71d03c9f5c488b7a2b37e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
Target market:
Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament?
Event: dota-2-the-international-2025
Predict the user's choice an... | yes | 0.87101 | dota-2-the-international-2025 | Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | 76,439,511 | 77,974,858 |
e5adb7c6af134ebb92948bab8d30ed444b33fe57 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0x7a269da637483c1a8bd65816604de87592db82baa7934e63d6917c1b168764af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 1 | dota-2-the-international-2025 | Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? | 76,450,307 | 77,974,858 |
6e7eaf288e83129391190d6ed2b010e9b4aa47c3 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0xde05539a72a140181502ae32bb06018299309267a4f825f4ca6bfb21ab3d9500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 1 | most-rushing-yards-by-a-rookie-rb | Will Ashton Jeanty record the most rushing yards by a rookie running back? | 77,226,488 | 77,226,488 |
f0253e092edd3d2b6c28f2c5c31c433894f35697 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0xd5e7d5061ce008c5e820ecccc1a707a8797f61c7fd4e13e8733603e832d1f828 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | yes | 0.009085 | which-nfl-teams-will-make-the-playoffs-167 | Will the Kansas City Chiefs make the playoffs? | 77,830,790 | 77,830,790 |
a982ececacd0307100ce45f14b972e7e1ab7f6d3 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0x14a0e1a4216bd138e5666b74860fcba0dbb43c7051995719479ba0da58b8229b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 0 | nfl-win-totals-over-or-under | Will the New England Patriots win 9 or more regular season games? | 77,894,039 | 79,198,821 |
969c770cdab60092e09c1ef91e4bbe9d6985fbef | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0x51176bf3915f7797f91315db3e0e8ab346bb0b63bd37fb5f3f4eb01aabfe389f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 1 | nfl-sacks-leader | Will Byron Young lead the NFL in sacks this season? | 77,942,541 | 77,942,541 |
47917ea9df8591ad8f50657c88ac2487a18dce25 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0x41a8ff4b6b7dfde0ef1fcb2461ad1290a46955e97765870176991f1383c6f712 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 1 | nfl-sacks-leader | Will Nick Bosa lead the NFL in sacks this season? | 77,942,547 | 77,942,547 |
84db63fa9ec57c974a4ba533a31219b08a0759f5 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0x5af9164a87b08bfef23df0e6c1b1cc219abfdb1c6848ac51f4fca1711d511db2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 1 | nfl-sacks-leader | Will Tershawn Wharton lead the NFL in sacks this season? | 77,942,556 | 77,942,556 |
6f1c740d70bc7bf1d9b1f9dd54be5aec85e62e8c | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0xd4906f3d59711f62447880dca51a0fddf212a32e7235cef245c1d9df291ef44e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 1 | nfl-sacks-leader | Will Abdul Carter lead the NFL in sacks this season? | 77,942,560 | 77,942,560 |
4228705f2f8c7e2a7c49c05f898dcbe9c75aa347 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0x0dae99fd3e9609419865b1b615ad22e89180bc572fc4d53160a88b678e071791 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 1 | last-unbeaten-nfl-team-399 | Will Buffalo Bills be the last unbeaten team? | 77,974,858 | 77,974,858 |
f46755493ac6a9037d313b7ec9057ea6cac9e6b5 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0x2a5fd098f986dfa8a8d376206062ca404d15c9c05b753312e48b7d7967475700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 1 | last-winless-nfl-team-293 | Will New York Jets be the last winless team? | 77,974,858 | 77,974,858 |
2722d2f03352e869efe8d470241eefff08ba1544 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0x621cd4d81295483fd2e91b8526e5bd81dc69c67485b8bcec8b77f3fd7b7a6b86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 1 | next-nfl-head-coach-fired-396 | Will Brian Callahan be the next coach fired? | 77,974,858 | 77,974,858 |
63b25e19eccc94aabc0c81a89b3f464e5543b43c | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0x7df41b289c120dcc2e961ca7c278d1da5c5cf06a10e62ca184dc78144fcc9b31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 1 | september-inflation-argentina-annual | Will annual inflation increase by between 30% and 32.9% in September? | 77,974,858 | 77,974,858 |
fa88bbb5bb4a144c6aeee53e244eaae6d4245e79 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0x87342cd9cf6150650085a0b006d0575b94cc6cbded7cb59e47f51adaf52cbada | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 1 | wnba-scoring-leader-296 | Will A'ja Wilson lead the WNBA in points per game this season? | 77,974,858 | 77,974,858 |
f72e87657a8c4e7063a8f784e2f89dcccab7d467 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0x8a5c1b982175c1782425056b88954174cb66a3ea5c96efadcdbd587d299a6d78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 1 | 2025-premier-lacrosse-league-winner | Will New York Atlas win the 2025 PLL Championship? | 77,974,858 | 77,974,858 |
084047113671663d74284862feda8772e77929d2 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0xa6810873af2eeac42bc2445db3e505d00fa738789b519da49e1f24194924c5f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 1 | 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Will Germany win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | 77,974,858 | 77,974,858 |
8509fae60b84bea4a4cf741f1dc05574f8306adb | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0xe121dce8e44d70fcd182ab4e2b87c0f1934dab46f23b89594c210d3205de0364 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 1 | first-nfl-team-to-score-100-points | Will the Buffalo Bills be the first team to reach 100 total points scored? | 77,974,858 | 77,974,858 |
78e96b6e87bb7ab8f9bd03383e5619a4943f2dc3 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0xfdd4e506ecaab6415b714ed76b86d9d27d2323aaeeca42fe6b71b1fd04a750d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 1 | wnba-coach-of-the-year | Will Natalie Nakase win WNBA Coach of the Year? | 77,974,858 | 77,974,858 |
984dcf77c38fdf635ce0680ca0afa35aaeff1bd3 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0x0b0a2f9d6d68991b09594f1f5c0d932a878059a19079c8da689c252444daf05f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 1 | wnba-mvp | Will A'ja Wilson win the 2025 WNBA MVP? | 77,974,859 | 77,974,859 |
7ea37a792890a7b01a4de10227fb6f2135df8b85 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0x42f9157688e000eb2e37e1c920f6b83dbb6a6ba2d4f03822953a0541bef90435 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | yes | 1 | wnba-mvp | Will Napheesa Collier win the 2025 WNBA MVP? | 77,974,859 | 77,974,859 |
de806b17b3027d71fb4ed90b8527e39108d4464a | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0x5ab26a3bcf989ed938597dac39df0d581fc3a917409ee79beaaa458f03de1ec0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 1 | mlb-home-run-leader | Will Cal Raleigh lead the MLB in Home Runs? | 77,974,859 | 77,974,859 |
41a1466059e97f0bf98cf61f643806ee0dff3fe9 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0x781958dd9d74d12e2244bd082805e604c9a2812b3d41e0280e56f0ddfed82954 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 1 | mlb-best-regular-season-record | Will the Milwaukee Brewers have the best regular season record in the MLB? | 77,974,859 | 77,974,859 |
eebba1d71eccec6f0f08bdb23f2e08c889c8aa91 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0x8d86292b23180875fa9af1efd6cddde52f6e56bffbeab3151fcd8b4a155443a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 0.001863 | will-shedeur-sanders-start-a-game-for-the-browns | Will Shedeur Sanders start a game for the Browns? | 78,064,717 | 78,064,717 |
d35bb46645389ad6b7289e59f103bd43ff7675fe | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0xbd2b56112ec890269f88721b4c2beb5199849e468b46110fec773ee00d6c8920 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 1 | where-will-chris-olave-be-traded | Will Chris Olave be traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers? | 78,617,291 | 78,617,291 |
09e44517efc7cf39da3aa435008cb83624a381f2 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0x3517031f641b250201231b66d73cd14d46258eb7dca9e786b80a372a652cc442 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | no | 1 | where-will-jaylen-waddle-be-traded | Will Jaylen Waddle not be traded? | 78,788,131 | 78,788,131 |
3b4570d5b487bb2a453dd4ab9635e85816d3075a | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0xccfe13b035a92a4a999f73c19e929e078298ee6062fe9294a0c9ca8fd2012ac5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | yes | 1 | will-the-ravens-trade-for-shedeur-sanders | Will the Ravens trade for Shedeur Sanders? | 78,788,131 | 78,788,131 |
abce0aade9b1382390e51bd4a5c66e577a43d179 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0x1d3bea1010b531252ae14d81f34ddcd775123185c2477890e85f7e69b8e29310 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | over | 0 | nfl-hou-ten-2025-11-16 | Texans Team Total: O/U 25.5 | 79,105,598 | 79,199,012 |
6f73ee1c0fef23ebf08100a9effd7599fdf21416 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0xa8d136649a33be4e075d9fa4ee037d17a8646abb52343d61a3d54d9c2d28b2b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | bills | 0 | nfl-tb-buf-2025-11-16 | 1H Spread: Bills (-3.5) | 79,108,463 | 79,108,463 |
8e09977ba4973b6a553a615eb2f06979cf58e57a | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0x45150ff334f92fb260c3fd67b1c386a0c4b1233eb50a254b300e96f64cbdf5e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | bengals | 0 | nfl-cin-pit-2025-11-16 | Spread: Steelers (-5.5) | 79,111,899 | 79,199,011 |
b6b4473506e63ed41f42b51e20d245bc08c16f08 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0x54fb7c189d7f6fc02c8283db8e024ef897d3a9dd5b7483ce4eb05332e9ae9671 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9610894941634242
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116... | over | 0 | nfl-chi-min-2025-11-16 | Bears Team Total: O/U 19.5 | 79,111,913 | 79,198,937 |
0c2d544e942c606ebece15207db5d933d36a3c51 | 0x0ad7f3411bc87f0b5362155e638f04ef05700971 | 0xa3484f2b08ecb001481a88b797fae974995b1a8ad40747fe5152286fb1a3240c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8710095116355896
2. Question: Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | over | 0 | nfl-sf-ari-2025-11-16 | Cardinals Team Total: O/U 26.5 | 79,111,926 | 79,199,011 |
f5a3b74dae71e1cbfcf5de68c0d74c6034463257 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x6e852a91a60ba3abad7a64819661611c1ad5629c7537ed6489a0e6bc6edca782 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29?
Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | 79,672,181 | 79,672,181 |
0ab26a2c9cc43881d7d960416924066951981f53 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x23f368fbabff491842ab463d445696134c26e5017cc03d503998862210f92ab7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29?
Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "co... | no | 1 | cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | 79,673,497 | 79,673,497 |
d4f6b1ee742993ba06d69d68d5d302c02869bf68 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x0bb192e0c71b616d80e3032edd6336b0376435c74b021cae236194f76d4bec03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 4... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-30 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 30? | 79,711,114 | 79,711,114 |
e41c09c149b9268415fd2d522d3165ef529a2764 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xe3ff7e48c6ce264f7e6979dfe7e4a1801117141c3c70460517809070e6a8d0cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | yes | 1 | den-agf-kob-2025-11-30 | Will Aarhus GF win on 2025-11-30? | 79,711,114 | 79,711,114 |
9205d421e1f1f0f46ae2add9eda200f492f74d23 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x1333ef1879246c6e7397aea7b33bd9160ca403e7a631c42e1d1c8ec283ea0083 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | no | 1 | den-agf-kob-2025-11-30 | Will Aarhus GF vs. FC København end in a draw? | 79,711,989 | 79,711,989 |
b14fe4f07afc0bea677deefee9fef2cdc6a024f7 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x477b0175462ac6c7b3dcd931fa51a88459405d8ba6ad4f5aeda28195715bb18a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | no | 1 | den-sif-ran-2025-11-30 | Will Silkeborg IF win on 2025-11-30? | 79,711,989 | 79,711,989 |
334ee28c82ede9506e30309018669a6d59990f31 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x88bc79491093a6dede758d55cf06ec0d4005bfbaa8e47819f39a6c7b4dfbfd64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | yes | 1 | den-sif-ran-2025-11-30 | Will Silkeborg IF vs. Randers FC end in a draw? | 79,711,989 | 79,711,989 |
8b78507d4bf8dd4d38d796b33edd135aedad13f9 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xaa6401f4ae9015b3f1dfd22cce3e3b34b67b637801e0c3710b7f527683be7e19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | no | 1 | den-sif-ran-2025-11-30 | Will Randers FC win on 2025-11-30? | 79,711,989 | 79,711,989 |
da3054e7ed1bb71817803a2ef2931d750ffc70c9 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xb6865a0767a95914f1cd173a4441131795a97fee51e551cdc897e26e429afc60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | yes | 1 | scop-liv-abe-2025-11-30 | Will Aberdeen FC win on 2025-11-30? | 79,714,379 | 79,714,379 |
05256b796dc5e9dc6660187a1183eebd99abe089 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xafe2aa6aab96dcb4bc750cea312f093ab194344836be655e5a8eb3a5fd9d0796 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | no | 1 | which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-november-style-control-on | Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? | 79,715,261 | 79,715,261 |
6895b162c0eaecf37cfa1c03cd19d101fd4218c2 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xcefc861785141f19c7c71d09c2b4b0b379d5fd3ac5f3eb2d4cc3f8a0b025a748 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-november | Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? | 79,715,261 | 79,715,261 |
ba1a03e9dd9a4db1233d87e7e8652703db3b07f5 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xe750299495394f27e37ef59b9574fb3f69d1ff420b6d59972ff470009ea72745 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-november | Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025? | 79,715,261 | 79,715,261 |
ea53ebc71407b8bed8603e962fd617f05ea8ba07 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x09a2e2d6f3c3d53547b24cf927fb66df5c2ea14b3f4c4026099b8c07767eb8bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | yes | 1 | cde-cyr-rva-2025-11-29 | Will FC Saint-Cyr Collonges au Mont d'Or vs. FC Rhône Vallées end in a draw? | 79,715,485 | 79,715,485 |
20f71594da601a2edd540e63eddefa22a30d229e | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x4d294cf317f3ada41ed27be5abd2416d15983fef9935664656413aae1cb22739 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | yes | 1 | rus-zen-rub-2025-11-30 | Will FK Zenit win on 2025-11-30? | 79,716,029 | 79,716,029 |
55f4197e6a0f8554a73cd2540681685beea3758b | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x229a990c1c758c1d559e66e449331af986dd9c74acb3dba6a720ff66c5c39600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | yes | 1 | f1-qatar-grand-prix-driver-fastest-lap-2025-11-30 | Will Oscar Piastri achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? | 79,721,202 | 79,721,202 |
d7f5e4d32fb1db835fdba54db30ad202104fb9b1 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xa0d2471dbdcab4830badb90a5376e0ff257353410152229b7740b95461957816 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | no | 1 | f1-qatar-grand-prix-constructor-fastest-lap-2025-11-30 | Will Williams achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? | 79,731,594 | 79,731,594 |
8cc0d7d1adf7efd20003ca6dac88fb1581a709e3 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xa8c0a8ea0b9f3c6dc3ff1cd5163c280eeb075f17b23e50632f01a9da78683062 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | no | 1 | which-movie-has-best-opening-weekend-in-2025 | Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | 79,774,590 | 79,774,590 |
c2566c2517c97648c259f4033757a84a0ee62b0e | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x72f69ad7f1af995a8870e8329c39cc36d58ac8956635a66ed3167e130cecfbad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | no | 1 | 2025-womens-handball-world-champion | Will Tunisia win the 2025 IHF Women’s World Championship? | 79,817,694 | 79,817,694 |
9ee522426b5ea450e3eae162ae00b88e3b2fcb2f | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xd32006c35f0370562802da1826f0a789a93af7e186c653f5a6eb874c5a671f4a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | no | 1 | 2025-womens-handball-world-champion | Will Egypt win the 2025 IHF Women’s World Championship? | 79,817,694 | 79,817,694 |
955958b1baa39c7d22cfec35b94caab4b56207f9 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x733f93180050ec21193c3c6874840b812e06b6845310f39200e4a0707a50f62e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | yes | 1 | bra-gre-flu-2025-12-02 | Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-12-02? | 79,818,554 | 79,818,554 |
a84e1acacd72769622d115d9992b76314ff6d082 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xd7af75bb76d8acb93ee4741555329ecf8eb4bcd78c31efc74efc22d053f04178 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-december-3-457 | Will the highest temperature in London be 45°F or below on December 3? | 79,830,365 | 79,830,365 |
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