sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
a24f2cff82ed00687ca256a215ef34cc8e6d8146 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x189b2d578fc9a79e7b86327e28385e9ef9da670ae94deb0738ac21defc47d982 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | yes | 1 | poker-hcl-million-dollar-marathon-biggest-loser | Will Brandon Steven be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon? | 79,835,979 | 79,835,979 |
d35a4e3522590350b6baef7792c715ef2047cb5d | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x0ac102883e43883b0d5e359882a29317b28bee96cc5019ea69bc37cc684a5178 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | yes | 1 | top-spotify-song-2025 | Will Die With a Smile by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025? | 79,838,428 | 79,838,428 |
27bce132f529e65b6fd88d341d00e5ede3a9d4d6 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x2a46bac806f455a2fd53322cd830298d2ff86a1a6e40f5133e03786396d5445b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | yes | 1 | 3-most-streamed-spotify-artist-2025 | Will The Weeknd be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? | 79,838,428 | 79,838,428 |
c02575d52f5eb6f2158225bba8ba99b05b1ca88c | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x23cf18027ea691ad71fdbb08312c0c990455947906d36d5d01a50c2043882863 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | no | 1 | brasileiro-serie-a-league-winner | Will Palmeiras win the 2025 Brasileiro Serie A league? | 79,861,037 | 79,861,037 |
0315d577a0ead224ae97c89fa94cce55a9a85cad | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x6ab31394334635bc0e865d3524e13606d741ac47d3a0c95941cdbb1b9f2490ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | yes | 1 | brasileiro-serie-a-league-winner | Will Flamengo win the 2025 Brasileiro Serie A league? | 79,861,270 | 79,861,270 |
bb84cd330cd86228569cbb6b9702f170374cffe8 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x4f87bf27ba8e99826c51732ee6d8f926b9b6131ddfcf59417917369e1ddb73af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | no | 1 | 2025-pga-tour-player-of-the-year | Will Xander Schauffele win the 2025 PGA Tour Player of the Year award? | 79,861,498 | 79,861,498 |
4a0b9eb68cd2dfa47bec133ab5fa155c7338919a | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x94d2b77f7b5e938f6e48d6d2dbe3fc92088d18c7f60b31da70d56d047a67b0a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | yes | 1 | goodreads-choice-awards-readers-favorite-young-adult-fantasy-sci-fi | Will Sunrise on the Reaping (Suzanne Collins) win Readers' Favorite Young Adult Fantasy & Sci-Fi in the 2025 Goodreads Choice Awards? | 79,861,913 | 79,861,913 |
3040206defb72603b7ca542e64f82004b860c400 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x9381d81fb98b3df35ecfffe9625c846499162af73cba2151cb155253fbb7aa69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | yes | 1 | 1-searched-game-on-google-this-year | Will ARC Raiders be the #1 searched game on Google this year? | 79,864,172 | 79,864,172 |
fe97f76bfed467595d9f872721b8da5ed49eacbb | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x251fa8367064bb77cb866c91e604e7e3836f706d2a33996a11335eb5c4422df0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | yes | 1 | 1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year | Will Anora be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? | 79,864,722 | 79,864,722 |
2c79c7dd154eee710ce4b672f27dbede66b254df | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x07892ead22f908124fe96349a77f63838ea433e44f9f7333c70af19db051debb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-11-29? | Event: por-cas-alv-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on Nov... | no | 1 | 1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year | Will KPop Demon Hunters be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? | 79,866,118 | 79,866,118 |
d983d48ba7cfc62a283c0ba6fe8db947f3745153 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xa08e92a3c0aefb1d55bd407d248a85b4ababe1dc0f7c4e36605c7656eca88b95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US Feurs win on 2025-11-29? | Event: cde-hau-usf1-2025-11-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aa... | no | 1 | 1-searched-game-on-google-this-year | Will Battlefield 6 be the #1 searched game on Google this year? | 79,866,118 | 79,866,118 |
e6b2fcc5e0c7a25834a337399b3ba3fbecb164ac | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xecc0e4aa4fac734b929ecd0233b006339ef97e044a4a3daad22fc6b33975c8e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aarhus GF win on 2025-11-30? | Event: den-agf-kob-2025-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will A... | yes | 1 | 1-searched-passings-on-google-this-year | Will Charlie Kirk be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings? | 79,866,118 | 79,866,118 |
3d3ee21177ae1c5dbbb519781e57d472c1c9dc68 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x1d3fb82a46e2367ad1fe147860a0c4213b804ba97d6484485c81e091dd8a2ed4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aarhus GF win on 2025-11-30? | Event: den-agf-kob-2025-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aarhus GF vs. FC København end in a draw? | Event: den-agf-kob-2025-11-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Silkeborg IF win on 2025-11-30? | Event: den-sif-ran-2... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-december-4 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or below on December 4? | 79,867,327 | 79,867,327 |
a7be92a43d9a338ebb1f1e8d9275021f1fb56cc2 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x1dbf07620d17418fc25c47f7f1cdf7ff56149a8e4fefceeb68f12616874960c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aarhus GF vs. FC København end in a draw? | Event: den-agf-kob-2025-11-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Silkeborg IF win on 2025-11-30? | Event: den-sif-ran-2025-11-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Silkeborg IF vs. Randers FC end in a draw? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-december-3-972 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on December 3? | 79,867,327 | 79,867,327 |
1c8478f7a9c58b41838311094b813faf84c35d90 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x2b77b95866b5d24fb89e71e8a00ecf7524d39f19c1c888cfb04730243ac37907 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Silkeborg IF win on 2025-11-30? | Event: den-sif-ran-2025-11-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Silkeborg IF vs. Randers FC end in a draw? | Event: den-sif-ran-2025-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Randers FC win on 2025-11-30? | Event: den-sif-ran... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-december-3-972 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on December 3? | 79,867,327 | 79,867,327 |
4abb62564e2a019fb716baf0046299721036aee2 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xf5c542125cbd14e4bdda11fac56e8536d9ec60f1748b021a94b4436aa7ad0f26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Silkeborg IF vs. Randers FC end in a draw? | Event: den-sif-ran-2025-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Randers FC win on 2025-11-30? | Event: den-sif-ran-2025-11-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aberdeen FC win on 2025-11-30? | Event: scop-liv-abe... | yes | 1 | mex-caz-tig-2025-12-03 | Will CF Cruz Azul vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw? | 79,867,327 | 79,867,327 |
24b4f0a04c876b0726cf5571ab366c9800c5e04a | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xa64f5110c5553397f403bcff7d63658b04266bdf82392980d405535de0259a78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Randers FC win on 2025-11-30? | Event: den-sif-ran-2025-11-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aberdeen FC win on 2025-11-30? | Event: scop-liv-abe-2025-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? | Event:... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-december-4 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 37-38°F on December 4? | 79,887,222 | 79,887,222 |
227a47dd45472613e0f06db72e2c7454187e9975 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x057e9a44a0f07fcfde6aabb6bfd1190336da63b7cc137731f3b2efaf143d7990 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aberdeen FC win on 2025-11-30? | Event: scop-liv-abe-2025-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? | Event: which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-november-style-control-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | itc-bol-par-2025-12-04 | Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-04? | 79,891,546 | 79,891,546 |
1b57446750146b88fd9fe2d08060ed94e12cd513 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xf764c522d0a60b4df44d0b357ae4032cced8fe29cbd8c2f9832ddc236f9888ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? | Event: which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-november-style-control-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-novembe... | no | 1 | cdr-atl-esp-2025-12-04 | Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2025-12-04? | 79,893,552 | 79,893,552 |
9b68ef4c142a9fa707479a39c405d91d378805f3 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xf47c4d7b7c309632b81422bba649893dfbc238fd48ad79c76ed30ecabf75b7f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025? | Event: which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-novem... | yes | 1 | who-will-acquire-warner-bros-discovery | Will Netflix acquire Warner Bros. Discovery? | 79,921,671 | 79,921,671 |
601825dc077671753dd0a0c594b3c5c67977a369 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x6b57fcc38379096606a030b97fd99388a0ab0521db176b5093a4cb60a8bd29ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025? | Event: which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Saint-Cyr Collonges au Mont d'Or vs. FC Rhône Vallées end in a draw? | Event: cde-cyr-rva-2025-11-29 | Ch... | no | 1 | who-will-acquire-warner-bros-discovery | Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros. Discovery? | 79,922,360 | 79,922,360 |
760f9aa5e5eb5ec57ddfc00e2ede1d0aef902bdb | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xf74a6e2939a7aa873b2c28f4547ea4968e72b99a5fb644486c3f1e469bf1b354 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Saint-Cyr Collonges au Mont d'Or vs. FC Rhône Vallées end in a draw? | Event: cde-cyr-rva-2025-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-11-30? | Event: rus-zen-rub-2025-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Oscar Piastri achieve th... | no | 1 | who-will-acquire-warner-bros-discovery | Will no acquisition occur by May 31 2026? | 79,922,360 | 79,922,360 |
553a2abc992556c205c67cdef853de583c662a70 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xc58f72c84c7f81d4c16e59ee875da519a9a20836231be424d835fb9c2d0161e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-11-30? | Event: rus-zen-rub-2025-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oscar Piastri achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? | Event: f1-qatar-grand-prix-driver-fastest-lap-2025-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | 1-song-on-spotify-this-week-december-5 | Will The Fate of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week? | 79,926,694 | 79,926,694 |
2769a304664dd30fe7f664f2bd0815b3e7302338 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xf1e6d7cc9f146dc6ad5931163535a04fe225c53a60ff3e353856b998bb9203c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oscar Piastri achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? | Event: f1-qatar-grand-prix-driver-fastest-lap-2025-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Williams achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? | Event: f1-qatar-grand-prix-constructor-f... | no | 1 | 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-december-5 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? | 79,930,535 | 79,930,535 |
2d87b1af1ce6310924165fbe4aeae6e27da16839 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x481748668b73049bb57c6d6e6e9f9cf99284d19491fabe11bed5007212ac7c0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Williams achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? | Event: f1-qatar-grand-prix-constructor-fastest-lap-2025-11-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Event: which-movie-has-best-opening-weekend-in... | yes | 1 | 1-paid-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-december-5 | Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? | 79,930,685 | 79,930,685 |
dfb773887b2950372cf6cd00b5d4a1c9584f5f88 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xd9550ada79cd1e088a07bd3b4789bb8a9929e130b88fc6702641f13e5e6d731e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Event: which-movie-has-best-opening-weekend-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tunisia win the 2025 IHF Women’s World Championship? | Event: 2025-womens-handball-world-champion | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | 2-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-december-5 | Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? | 79,930,685 | 79,930,685 |
4888c9b8cfae6dddf99263d460ba3b910d6947a2 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x1b37703b6ee8e6faff9c64ce6b9df5300e1918648e2b0bdcf3d999c8036f6ca8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tunisia win the 2025 IHF Women’s World Championship? | Event: 2025-womens-handball-world-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Egypt win the 2025 IHF Women’s World Championship? | Event: 2025-womens-handball-world-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | 2-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-december-5 | Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? | 79,930,735 | 79,930,735 |
9b14f7e66ba444d27c01618bed715e4d0511a865 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x45a09a7aac7f8db2abda937b95986f5e81f936df55f7c593d526cbc31cac6abd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Egypt win the 2025 IHF Women’s World Championship? | Event: 2025-womens-handball-world-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-12-02? | Event: bra-gre-flu-2025-12-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in L... | yes | 1 | 2-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-december-5 | Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? | 79,930,735 | 79,930,735 |
429561f90cc9ac532e52f02e5c3e2d453f2b5997 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x574ce2e0c468d4e51b40fa8debde0f279dcd4a8f3416c3416818d37cfdc0ed58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-12-02? | Event: bra-gre-flu-2025-12-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 45°F or below on December 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-december-3-457 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will B... | no | 1 | 2-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-december-5 | Will Shop: All your favorite brands be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? | 79,930,735 | 79,930,735 |
38921db365d0db522e593d38f1b027320914d2f3 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xf1d825233c46fc137681fbf56e26c34f8f2069f3e1aa75c794fa2fe8fcc532a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 45°F or below on December 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-december-3-457 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brandon Steven be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon? | Event: poker-hcl-million-dollar... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-28-december-5 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? | 79,932,381 | 79,932,381 |
ef206a57330bcc025d14ec2cb0860a76a76fb03b | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x2d009ba7a2138ceda3229e606d7f7c9bbb11600873bd229690808b333bc1d923 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brandon Steven be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon? | Event: poker-hcl-million-dollar-marathon-biggest-loser | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Die With a Smile by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 202... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-chicago-on-december-5 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 25–26°F on December 5? | 79,933,896 | 79,933,896 |
2eb95c318950473f7ece37d4da2c0fcef2730197 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xcd61b9865e4254a50be7fdd06288e4ae45071338920edf5eb255858c323866da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Die With a Smile by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025? | Event: top-spotify-song-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will The Weeknd be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? | Event: 3-most-streamed-spotify-artist-202... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-28-december-5 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? | 79,935,118 | 79,935,118 |
96aab14f8738137f47f0d0309a804992e5a92dc8 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xfe42241d27ca79c4bf97b3e668b56115bafc6d95477b9a128f91262487a70364 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The Weeknd be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? | Event: 3-most-streamed-spotify-artist-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Palmeiras win the 2025 Brasileiro Serie A league? | Event: brasileiro-serie-a-league-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bl2-dus-s04-2025-12-05 | Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2025-12-05? | 79,935,118 | 79,935,118 |
3e2d45c6bb43aef9f93d91e6b33b33c9da74b73b | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x599235eb25f3a7c4be66982a7d045da59e286e150971caaa829c8572d01ae0e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palmeiras win the 2025 Brasileiro Serie A league? | Event: brasileiro-serie-a-league-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Flamengo win the 2025 Brasileiro Serie A league? | Event: brasileiro-serie-a-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Xander... | no | 1 | pltr-week-december-5-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $156-$158 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 1 – Dec 5? | 79,948,538 | 79,948,538 |
86045392b08df7374e49c632750f391f3d4f4b56 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x6cded0f4e7ba3e86b8f7efc482c2eb3904d8ab5ce62c5a2e702583fcad854d5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Flamengo win the 2025 Brasileiro Serie A league? | Event: brasileiro-serie-a-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Xander Schauffele win the 2025 PGA Tour Player of the Year award? | Event: 2025-pga-tour-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | msft-week-december-5-2025 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $470-$480 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 1 – Dec 5? | 79,948,538 | 79,948,538 |
37ff4dca98949a9591766696f76caf8c2bba6961 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x9b75b517102728e864faa10d7caf4e89e916df20bda6f87a9c75c07083706fd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Xander Schauffele win the 2025 PGA Tour Player of the Year award? | Event: 2025-pga-tour-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sunrise on the Reaping (Suzanne Collins) win Readers' Favorite Young Adult Fantasy & Sci-Fi in the 2025 Goodreads Choice Awards? | ... | no | 1 | fl1-sbr-asm-2025-12-05 | Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-12-05? | 79,948,538 | 79,948,538 |
64c723bdcb96e650fe919182fbf417ef1b925fb5 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xbafffd95a8e722c3825173a99cf772e522a7c4755fb8bff68031ae856e2818eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sunrise on the Reaping (Suzanne Collins) win Readers' Favorite Young Adult Fantasy & Sci-Fi in the 2025 Goodreads Choice Awards? | Event: goodreads-choice-awards-readers-favorite-young-adult-fantasy-sci-fi | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ARC Raiders be the #1 searched g... | yes | 1 | ere-exc-gro-2025-12-05 | Will FC Groningen win on 2025-12-05? | 79,948,538 | 79,948,538 |
8e28690e271f650a00278350757c0f4ea122277c | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xc96dcf1db1f45f5106367d88c6992bfc4b91349ea161a40bbe1fabb44acddf1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ARC Raiders be the #1 searched game on Google this year? | Event: 1-searched-game-on-google-this-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anora be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? | Event: 1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | den-fcf-ode-2025-12-05 | Will Odense BK win on 2025-12-05? | 79,948,538 | 79,948,538 |
e0fbda174d9c2627f196e89ab2f31bdea96e837d | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x19ae3e25c23812308660db49d8a50050b26a63007845a34e3bf6666692e9174e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Anora be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? | Event: 1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will KPop Demon Hunters be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? | Event: 1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | mountain-west-championship-game-winner | Will UNLV win the 2025 Mountain West Conference Championship Game? | 79,951,752 | 79,951,752 |
e3f68f1969401b56dbf76030da14542f99f44c58 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xdc20717c8a306fd7a09e6f240384c8adabacdf1475dc0db5009416f88d685353 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KPop Demon Hunters be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? | Event: 1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Battlefield 6 be the #1 searched game on Google this year? | Event: 1-searched-game-on-google-this-year | Choice: no | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | mountain-west-championship-game-winner | Will Boise State win the 2025 Mountain West Conference Championship Game? | 79,951,752 | 79,951,752 |
477c2705ead981359bda4067085e7a3c76be5df2 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x47755dc2904ed588e113e4a6ac158032faa07fe94470dbd3f74c1cae1cd55449 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Battlefield 6 be the #1 searched game on Google this year? | Event: 1-searched-game-on-google-this-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charlie Kirk be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings? | Event: 1-searched-passings-on-google-this-year | Choice:... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-atlanta-on-december-5 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 49 °F or below on December 5? | 79,953,993 | 79,953,993 |
e88bebe93929a0cbc2f1ea6edc46109169625d8d | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x740799d172cda69f8b9e3b1e9b1a22b196e05a9175a7e17b6a641e259102df0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Charlie Kirk be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings? | Event: 1-searched-passings-on-google-this-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or below on December 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-atlanta-on-december-5 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 50–51 °F on December 5? | 79,953,993 | 79,953,993 |
411c2fb34ef85936244da19e811d21b558351d37 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x6057454b26d91f69e109794e0e78ba1f4a1f464a9bf9310af8239d036b69930d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or below on December 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-december-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on December 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-de... | yes | 1 | jap-kas-yom-2025-12-06 | Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-12-06? | 79,955,845 | 79,955,845 |
86ab95f8276eaa283221a7b82b2f617fd635f432 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x06e85eefcacbfe81a9e9997c58ed4e56dadd26b6109b1093fe57bf022ec65f1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on December 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-december-3-972 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on December 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-ny... | no | 1 | bl2-fck-dyn-2025-12-06 | Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2025-12-06? | 79,968,026 | 79,968,026 |
e6bd8d6bd6c8292b814c2e3d71eff636afeaa991 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0xe7a33966fb3e7f8b11786a8c67685bd6499e6229d1f9fde62d72ae83ed9655a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on December 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-december-3-972 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CF Cruz Azul vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw? | Event: mex-caz-tig-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | epl-ast-ars-2025-12-06 | Will Aston Villa vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | 79,968,800 | 79,968,800 |
55e405a43a6c4dcdb3523934dfc2203d9efe5274 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x24c232ba25bd9a6f14ddb3673b3ad9faf2085bb9eedc6fb27e745ae404829ec8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Cruz Azul vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw? | Event: mex-caz-tig-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 37-38°F on December 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-december-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | elc-wat-nor-2025-12-06 | Will Watford FC win on 2025-12-06? | 79,970,414 | 79,970,414 |
cc8bee672c94f77643e83261faa828fb5a773c87 | 0x0b2e73db8f4eaad4d865be3ec013339891b3ca20 | 0x35d13e8d7ff1af3849ac07192730008b2c6755116f1b86f2acc905cebb430715 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 37-38°F on December 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-december-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-04? | Event: itc-bol-par-2025-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | fr2-tro-raf-2025-12-06 | Will ES Troyes AC vs. Rodez Aveyron Football end in a draw? | 79,970,414 | 79,970,414 |
c75e724d68ffab2a6e6526153abdcb53d79850c1 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x5e816bab6a20066537fb762d4a38d83723e9e677a86e1e337142b12e87978e7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023?
Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0 | world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | 44,176,242 | 44,233,777 |
26fea564f2e5c106aa61b03c8e1d82a3b27b327f | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xb0e72032ff0155c4dfbf0d5b8da76c07f13b99c01f1fb8e3b84b2926c21594f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real?
Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real
Predict the user's... | no | 1 | is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | 51,817,106 | 51,817,106 |
d13abe81776b6c1c67d2419cfec7a207cd89c91a | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xfa0203e445285919305e4e37ddf6cb95288298f23e37b3391133983df800d01f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-1hr-after-etf-approval | $BTC price between $42,500-45,000 1 hour after ETF approval? | 52,209,017 | 52,579,007 |
97d0f7bec13584ba7a9fb16dff9b1ffc523ef27b | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x4c430f7a539d4af93ef7a0c16fc2f537de23b20fb7d697e428e0e4626a85fead | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-1hr-after-etf-approval | $BTC price between $45,000-47,500 1 hour after ETF approval? | 52,209,093 | 52,579,007 |
7251ed7a380b82451313281544c540e1b70982f2 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xfa5d43be36255764600be8bf2a29f288e6c8963c121df8400ddfe6bcbc744700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | 52,247,756 | 52,247,825 |
166f139af92e7307fca144b6b146e5544447b7f5 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xe3b1bc389210504ebcb9cffe4b0ed06ccac50561e0f24abb6379984cec030f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 52,258,829 | 52,258,829 |
95a07badc325534ef47c39e7bf24c26025c7329c | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x63c08c7876974d743c3c484acb633759afaa93fe203895187f433e80167ea575 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | super-bowl-winner-2024 | Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl LVIII? | 52,568,988 | 52,568,988 |
b98b945fe3ccd9263e46dca0e36677bb00b42263 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xa5984ea4def5821bdaa91af925037e54d0432936586ecb294cd75bd920ddf360 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | largest-company-in-the-world-on-january-31 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world on January 31? | 53,003,853 | 53,003,853 |
552afc168f902a49077eea862570eb120df493f4 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x0275ff4c1237a0dfc1b6a0cb6817895065584177e3dcf5e868725fceb2165b87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | largest-company-in-the-world-on-january-31 | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world on January 31? | 53,003,863 | 53,003,863 |
e6743ed38f12794984915a9861587149b855ae5a | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xd540c257f3ec6065eddb0c235ff6df48a6c188ef3e3eaf83bbfb7e1cc2b45ad6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 0 | will-taylor-swift-endorse-biden-at-the-super-bowl | Will Taylor Swift endorse Biden at the Super Bowl? | 53,220,257 | 53,220,257 |
37f98a47ceeb63cdcc6536a9e241aefcc59bc2bd | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xa81f535a21c9fc890b335131ad726476605c563ad6b9a096568a0556db26987a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 0 | fed-rate-cut-by | Fed rate cut by March 20? | 54,200,621 | 54,979,630 |
6e0d1f0c855f0b18523b89164494393be28106f4 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x9680e41769b76d79cddffb9ace729d5141d8b5d94b5277461595031de5da3534 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 0 | what-price-will-btc-reach-in-march | Will BTC hit $80,000 in March? | 54,343,387 | 54,343,387 |
a4f074c7597f58b6aab9e728f61c1289345df52a | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x8657be23cc69d2fb42695f4dbfe525ed3903f2694487e53b4a72a25bcc3d8838 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 0.000008 | what-price-will-btc-reach-in-march | Will BTC hit $90,000 in March? | 54,343,456 | 54,343,456 |
bb9bd6835b1550f90e0b07459ed1e0ced4e714bf | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xe7b84d9cf7388fab81938f3f07dbc78de06ee302052e9152a016707c79baa75b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 0 | what-price-will-btc-reach-in-march | Will BTC hit $100,000 in March? | 54,343,477 | 54,343,477 |
c8981f9319117487a9ed4c760bc7476612197e1c | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xf488aacaba74914fe181c68d8b6195e13c4ec8b6c1b215c299d297666297200e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 0.538604 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | 54,345,289 | 54,345,289 |
b97f03f1d7ffc0bf37bab1b51ddbde47378e7472 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xc2ac7652a98aed8559a0d61071b443bcbbfa100e50fae58bd349a99e11237354 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 0 | justin-fields-next-team | Will Justin Fields be traded to the New York Giants? | 54,347,736 | 54,347,736 |
1f9183acb41a686aa141f609c91e5e3368eb7f2e | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xcc090f5e0ed79b5f3ff6199363a2475885e5d383b4cd7cc1a6a304d32b5d0873 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 0.000707 | eurovision-winner | Will Croatia win Eurovision 2024? | 54,347,846 | 57,006,586 |
8c980c70e064af0fc286e485d20d85dec779d534 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x3fd1db3c31efd1a4b3533858e1ecee8716ebe6b9c8fbdfed6d63f7a62fcc4390 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 0 | eurovision-winner | Will Iceland win Eurovision 2024? | 54,347,921 | 54,347,921 |
0debad136d492d66675813a9e07b5f34c78c5acb | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x9e1fc7f640aee0025d1af104f397f2a845a0245afe37a433671aa788c42d3e15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 0 | eurovision-winner | Will another country win Eurovision 2024? | 54,348,082 | 54,348,082 |
046a36e651190d020bb399c6cc83c7690ed139af | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x5e09f349c269651cf19352c815133fe11eea19e688d8c0ec01950276ddd64bb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | oscars-2024-best-picture | Will "American Fiction" win the Oscar for Best Picture? | 54,526,092 | 54,526,092 |
d485327c649c482d564ae25887fce7fa4259e5c3 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x84336ff58b9a4abcd805e56783d7353eb8159aea6ef07b148a96b0bbbc8e92d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | oscars-2024-best-picture | Will "Killers of the Flower Moon" win the Oscar for Best Picture? | 54,526,092 | 54,526,092 |
dbfb54c46478ba3943e5462cf5a663f028a4cea4 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x95f7a534aff654e263037b17de4b6fb7ea0afac2a99f62b849966879041b2b98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | oscars-2024-best-picture | Will "The Holdovers" win the Oscar for Best Picture? | 54,526,092 | 54,526,092 |
9aafac0fa1e0d366a7c230c1aece7fe7800320b3 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x986570eaebff38d248bd002709458c526259744345214bb403e189d1c614f8e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | oscars-2024-best-picture | Will "The Zone of Interest" win the Oscar for Best Picture? | 54,526,092 | 54,526,092 |
57d336b3d0e6384d72172841bd13b2e912d2de81 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x997439c67162f879438a67d4547942dbe470709f6b3ec08355235d31817186f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | oscars-2024-best-picture | Will "Poor Things" win the Oscar for Best Picture? | 54,526,092 | 54,526,092 |
2a313b351b35036a7e40397a6f1706171d94f21d | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xfecc393922d70836f9bf45558f161326e0fa3150e1109af6d4a1484dce510cf7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | oscars-2024-best-picture | Will "Barbie" win the Oscar for Best Picture? | 54,526,092 | 54,526,092 |
a4c6cb52f13b0bee30f7976442e8791d99869ee9 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x7f9738d9859a204f4a6d5e1041449c5dcead7e42190e0aca73ef6ffdd819ed83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | justin-fields-next-team | Will Justin Fields be traded to the Las Vegas Raiders? | 54,897,773 | 54,897,773 |
c9a58382ed62a83da4ca88b038db2afb7f6af4e8 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xaf83ca217e039d40cbb579f90fae12605dfeda7c2c2e22398e117914d4ee7dea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | justin-fields-next-team | Will Justin Fields remain on the Bears? | 54,897,773 | 54,897,773 |
6910556a87ae8b505dff41a6914b6aee45ea648e | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xed73c6a524abca202f0b804571e54b1e48f4eb53c33d1c8cbf01867544bcf534 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | justin-fields-next-team | Will Justin Fields be traded to the New England Patriots? | 54,897,773 | 54,897,773 |
f0cfe857fc5b1b4987c3463a7ae41792584ea9de | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x3591e0aeaaf91a7e7022d2539d9322db56871bd89966bad7c3d6b2836f9ae237 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-sbfs-sentence-be | SBF sentence between 30 and 40 years? | 55,202,806 | 55,202,806 |
d9c1c93f02707da88912205a0151300cbe3a3f26 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xa63e9cbbcc7914290f00faab781400dde671be95e63a04800bef395b42298e02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-sbfs-sentence-be | SBF sentence between 40 and 50 years? | 55,202,806 | 55,202,806 |
36efc7af046bb518f7655a1a2b1756f7850a93b5 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xed1527fb24485a877b1c20dd4f61a55d33f9c4737d772409c46c51b3495130ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-sbfs-sentence-be | SBF sentence between 20 and 30 years? | 55,202,806 | 55,202,806 |
266773e829cbf3e00be3034b3252d433bc0bd00b | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x03fe65a0b75ef032f2b9103eeb1676a30c68263ab645abdf52b38a0368bd5c49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: $BTC price between $42,500-45,000 1 hour after ETF approval? | Event: bitcoin-price-1hr-after-etf-approval | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: $BTC price be... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner | Will Australia win Eurovision 2024? | 57,006,586 | 57,006,586 |
bd9f992cc7a07618105ec61e6e637c1cc9b9ba3f | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x14d100750b98f6ce38dd9716f2bd15599dc28f134463b554334d3e7479b5a575 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $BTC price between $42,500-45,000 1 hour after ETF approval? | Event: bitcoin-price-1hr-after-etf-approval | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: $BTC price between $45,000-47,500 1 hour after ETF approval? | Event: bitcoin-price-1hr-after-etf-approval | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner | Will Spain win Eurovision 2024? | 57,006,586 | 57,006,586 |
cd735c8665eb0b7a16a7653f2c5ad6f0bb3d60a8 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x1ce0f21feca84fcaf1db018cf6930db2d9a56f2effedc85db1bf2e6701449d05 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $BTC price between $45,000-47,500 1 hour after ETF approval? | Event: bitcoin-price-1hr-after-etf-approval | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner | Will Georgia win Eurovision 2024? | 57,006,586 | 57,006,586 |
e549930d5cc4b5fc4b3a5d4dc71e84c0f8c4a66f | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x27297770c295bcbb40a64919ff4f16e69ad37e8722a1fdc0e4c5e4fe3fe3afcb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Con... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner | Will Greece win Eurovision 2024? | 57,006,586 | 57,006,586 |
5415df2ff3d4e3cf7db2f74cf81866bdd5bab490 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x3d56ce192d2ebb878aee1b86dd39bfb1671b15a4e780a2bdab934e47580a41f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest c... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner | Will Norway win Eurovision 2024? | 57,006,586 | 57,006,586 |
d7360ee1e0c8da60539943ebb25de1f710932e53 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x3ea161ac4ecdc3e1f2fa0a91a64daab5029b4c3e9c5f4ae643d78c63bba925a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world on January 31? | Event: largest-company-in-the-world-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Microsof... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner | Will Sweden win Eurovision 2024? | 57,006,586 | 57,006,586 |
94e21228b3704e2d607596ddcac9dc6baedc77a0 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x8e58645fc2b49c69142d7a54dcd8443a83afad812270a51c74360e5046e931e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world on January 31? | Event: largest-company-in-the-world-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world on January 31? | Event: largest-company-in-the-world-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Co... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner | Will Austria win Eurovision 2024? | 57,006,586 | 57,006,586 |
481e7730099f501b6928b02bdaeac251994f2ebf | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x95b2b4ec27ffb747512e1908cc2db722791f585e072019cd295bdefedd9b36e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world on January 31? | Event: largest-company-in-the-world-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Taylor Swift endorse Biden at the Super Bowl? | Event: will-taylor-swift-endorse-biden-at-the-super-bowl | Choice: no | Confid... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner | Will France win Eurovision 2024? | 57,006,586 | 57,006,586 |
b755654865c77ccc5d77351027b0596c3397641c | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x98bf5d523aac9d9f3886f429f1ee0ed48b28a1b7101caebbf5a80d0fe8e26ca8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Taylor Swift endorse Biden at the Super Bowl? | Event: will-taylor-swift-endorse-biden-at-the-super-bowl | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Fed rate cut by March 20? | Event: fed-rate-cut-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will BTC hit $80,000 in March? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner | Will Italy win Eurovision 2024? | 57,006,586 | 57,006,586 |
ec050542eb90d0136103f3acf070df89ff7daf36 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x621b71aec3b44f35e69b994554bb2d32e75d56c14dec1ab50710cf9260b9c404 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed rate cut by March 20? | Event: fed-rate-cut-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will BTC hit $80,000 in March? | Event: what-price-will-btc-reach-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will BTC hit $90,000 in March? | Event: what-price-will-btc-reach-in-march | Ch... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner | Will Finland win Eurovision 2024? | 57,006,592 | 57,006,592 |
38dcc27a5b99c59bad6e3bd048a6d5436d248b3a | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x726f39aac3995613989ebd81f6026b4e49faee8bafcc163217d3a8de9a788eee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BTC hit $80,000 in March? | Event: what-price-will-btc-reach-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will BTC hit $90,000 in March? | Event: what-price-will-btc-reach-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 8.014935760289881e-06
3. Question: Will BTC hit $100,000 in March? | Eve... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner | Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2024? | 57,006,592 | 57,006,592 |
dd8ee3baa0b04348cdad89dd738b437cf2f0139b | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xbf2517ed65e62564c9f8a15ac63daf5f0c671d9c987d4d2c73da572903de8470 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BTC hit $90,000 in March? | Event: what-price-will-btc-reach-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 8.014935760289881e-06
2. Question: Will BTC hit $100,000 in March? | Event: what-price-will-btc-reach-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner | Will Armenia win Eurovision 2024? | 57,006,592 | 57,006,592 |
e9c324790c26a6ab93a3441f21f6999bde2bc127 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xcd5a2b058b91d8e3299dbc747798b2963cd89a7f8676efa74ccafe1d50654066 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BTC hit $100,000 in March? | Event: what-price-will-btc-reach-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5386035621280216
3.... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner | Will the United Kingdom win Eurovision 2024? | 57,006,592 | 57,006,592 |
3b0015b8a26a96ebde92818d3c330e1c868334e1 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xd702bc423e72118913795be95788135816336204665b4baad6c10c7a162b40d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5386035621280216
2. Question: Will Justin Fields be traded to the New York Giants? | Event: justin-fields-next-team | Choice: no | Confiden... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner | Will Poland win Eurovision 2024? | 57,006,592 | 57,006,592 |
9fcd6a2064fa47074c4326f35b4b5c85ead61e0a | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xe2b38bd1fb2b0babbdcf096a480b52c74d7a2805c9abad334ac660c97bf60240 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Justin Fields be traded to the New York Giants? | Event: justin-fields-next-team | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0007073830364609461
3. Question: Will Iceland win Eurovision 2024? | Even... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner | Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2024? | 57,006,592 | 57,006,592 |
4622df1dd0d02a6ac54bce94d0750ab1879856ce | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xff4b4953a9726c957d25aaf2993e9492b4c7e8d9098fdbea55b8682248d59406 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0007073830364609461
2. Question: Will Iceland win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will another country win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-win... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner | Will Ireland win Eurovision 2024? | 57,006,592 | 57,006,592 |
13d56331aaf3168e0e0b1b9c1ad9f5db263ee5d2 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xdc0305fbe2b2851d4820af3461fa70c43641cbe4fb0e74dd79bfbd6dc89f170d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iceland win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will another country win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will "American Fiction" win the Oscar for Best Picture? | Event: oscars-202... | yes | 1 | republican-vp-nominee | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 59,419,471 | 59,419,471 |
206c2414acbbf4891723079f4b80863b99ccf9ce | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x056dc15ff61c93e8b90439cc6b37442002ce4193530d6bad0e65324ae7e897ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another country win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will "American Fiction" win the Oscar for Best Picture? | Event: oscars-2024-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Killers of the Flower Moon" win the Osc... | yes | 1 | tour-de-france-winner | Will Remco Evenepoel win the 2024 Tour de France? | 59,707,549 | 59,707,549 |
23bb52baae0fd54ac1989addf454c2bd183d144e | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x4d4bf1b5287ef20f2f8a70d54e650bca0bae6088d38c69a70bc3ddea2189845e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "American Fiction" win the Oscar for Best Picture? | Event: oscars-2024-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Killers of the Flower Moon" win the Oscar for Best Picture? | Event: oscars-2024-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "The Hol... | yes | 1 | tour-de-france-winner | Will another contestant win the 2024 Tour de France? | 59,707,549 | 59,707,549 |
2366da85f4b81a95d10f3d75acd96d3e6b071298 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xc86ead940a7fd12290fa9a32bb50a572b348bc2cac34c7e26c2c0241b4109f15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Killers of the Flower Moon" win the Oscar for Best Picture? | Event: oscars-2024-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "The Holdovers" win the Oscar for Best Picture? | Event: oscars-2024-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "The Zone o... | yes | 1 | tour-de-france-winner | Will Primoz Roglic win the 2024 Tour de France? | 59,707,549 | 59,707,549 |
c54d424930becdb6b7eb0644a524adf3efa001d6 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x21e0ef600527ed85810410ac1e8ebf617d0125133559b7f484a6cfda9f81e758 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "The Holdovers" win the Oscar for Best Picture? | Event: oscars-2024-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "The Zone of Interest" win the Oscar for Best Picture? | Event: oscars-2024-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Poor Things" win... | no | 1 | trump-x-biden-golf-announced-before-august | Trump x Biden golf announced before August? | 60,068,816 | 60,068,816 |
b1988c3376315dbfccfa80a9077f6b35e806fd50 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x07f490e13407a1fc288bc393f5c03f0c578b5fcc1dfc37e8b05133db869b7705 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "The Zone of Interest" win the Oscar for Best Picture? | Event: oscars-2024-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Poor Things" win the Oscar for Best Picture? | Event: oscars-2024-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Barbie" win the Os... | no | 1 | jill-biden-charged-with-elder-abuse | Jill Biden charged with elder abuse? | 60,096,879 | 60,096,879 |
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